As a new Premiership season draws ever closer one of the favourite pastimes of pundits and fans is to opine on who will be the first managerial casualty of the campaign. Alan Curbishley (West Ham), Kevin Keegan (Newcastle), Gary Megson (Bolton), Roy Hodgson (Fulham) and David Moyes (Everton) are all attracting some attention in the "sack race" - or first-out-the door.

Interestingly three of the most touted names (Keegan, Megson and Hodgson) were brought in to takeover after Newcastle, Bolton and Fulham opted to pull the plug on the then incumbents.
We know all three clubs survived so perhaps the end justified the means but do the statistics from last season support the managerial changes that were made?

Along with the three aforementioned managers there were another four managerial changes in the Premiership last season. Juande Ramos replaced Martin Jol at Spurs, Paul Jewell took over after Derby from Billy Davies, Steve Bruce returned to Wigan taking the place of Chris Hutchings and Avram Grant stepped into the special shoes left by Jose Mourinho.

So of the seven managers who made the biggest difference? The points differential can’t be used because all seven arrived at different times so the best comparison is the points per game gained after the change had been made measured against the points per game gained before the new gaffer signed on.

As well as making interesting reading in terms of last season the numbers may also give a hint of things to come in 2008/09.

The most “successful” change was at Wigan. Steve Bruce inherited a side that had averaged 0.57 points per game and he saw it increase by more than double to 1.33 per game. Projected over an entire season the pace under Bruce would have given Wigan a 50 point season – good for a very comfortable mid-table finish.

Next was Bolton’s Gary Megson. Before Megson arrived Bolton was collecting a point every two games. Megson increased that to well over a point per game (1.14) – another increase of over double the prior rate. Projected over a 38 games season Megson’s team would have finished on 43 points.

In third place is the manager who I am guessing most fans would have picked as the one showing the greatest improvement – Juande Ramos at Spurs. Ramos came within a smidgen of doubling Spurs points per game tally (1.39 to 0.70) but was well behind Megson and Bruce in the most improved category.

However, only Chelsea under Avram Grant averaged more points per game (2.31) under a new regime. If Spurs were to maintain the post-Ramos pace in the coming season they would finish with 53 points – not really top four form. There was the Carling Cup win however.

Finishing out of the medals was Roy Hodgson at Fulham. A little over a 50% improvement and it was all down to Fulham’s storming finish in the final three games. The nine points from three games made the difference between a 50% improvement and a record that would have worse than the man he replaced.

Projected to the new season Fulham would finish on 44 points – a cautionary note, exclude the final three games and that points total becomes 30 points.

Avram Grant’s Chelsea garnered the highest ratio of points per game but the improvement Mourinho’s performance was a little over 25%. (A caveat when making an assessment on Chelsea’s pre and post performance is that Chelsea fired a manager who was averaging 1.83 points per match. Of the seven sides only Newcastle pre-Keegan at 1.18 points per game exceeded an average of a point a game.)

After that we start moving into points regression. Under Keegan the points per game ratio was 90% of Newcastle’s ratio before he arrived (1.18 before – 1.06 after). Points projection over a full 38 game schedule – 40 points.

Last but not least was Paul Jewell and Derby County. With only six points from the first 14 games under Billy Davies I wonder if any of the Derby top brass suggested that if they parted ways with Davies it certainly could not get any worse. Well – it did. The next 24 games brought only five points and a projected total so low that it will not even be mentioned.

David Conn on the success enjoyed by FC United.  Stuart James looks at the Premiership play-offs. A debate between Graham Taylor and Joe Royle on the merits of the loan system. The Guardian’s list of strikers who may be in demand this summer. Tony Cascarino on the 2006/07 season’s best buy Dimitar Berbatov. Bill Edgar also sorts out the various permutations for the UEFA Cup spots. 

And now to the preview.

The Bundesliga takes top spot this weekend as we reach the penultimate round and three teams are still in contention for the title.   Schalke leads with 65 points, followed by Stuttgart on 64 and Werder Bremen are third on 63. By the looks of it Schalke and Stuttgart have the more difficult games although circumstances could conspire to give Schalke their first ever Bundesliga title this weekend.

Borussia Dortmund and 80,000 fans await Schalke who have not lost in Dortmund since 1998. However, three consecutive wins have seen Dortmund move out of relegation trouble and now sit in the top half of the table. Schalke’s final game next weekend is at home to Arminia Bielefeld.

 

Stuttgart can still complete the domestic double and plays Nuremberg in the German Cup Final on May 26. Stuttgart are on a six-match winning run and are away to Bochum another side that has been enjoying a fine run of form. Bochum were Bundesliga 2 champions last season and have won their last three in a row and six of their last 8. Greek striker Theofanis Gkekas is the man that Stuttgart must watch. He has scored thirteen goals in the last 11 games and it looks like he will be playing for Bayer Leverkusen next season. Energie Cottbus will be Stuttgart’s final opponent next weekend.  

 

Werder Bremen’s opponents Eintracht Frankfurt sit just above the relegation zone in 14th position and are not yet guaranteed Bundesliga football next season. Bremen’s last match is against another side haunted by the threat of relegation - Wolfsburg .

There are a raft of games in Spain that impact on both the top and bottom of La Liga. Fresh from a Copa del Rey thrashing from Getafe Barcelona are up against strugglers Real Betis. Betis have gone eight games without a win and travel to the Nou Camp where Barcelona have yet to lose a league game this season.

Good fortune is with Real Madrid at the moment and this weekend they face mid-table Espanyol in a game that looks tricky. However, Espanyol has a UEFA Cup Final next Wednesday in Glasgow and are likely to rest and number of their players.

Real Madrid have now won six of their last seven and are within two points of the leaders. Van Nistelrooy is now the leading scorer in La Liga with 20 goals. David Beckham and Robinho are both suspended for this game.  Espanyol are without a win at the Bernabeu since 1996 and in the last two visits they lost by four goals each time.

Espanyol stand between Sevilla and a repeat UEFA Cup win. Although by losing to Real Madrid last weekend Sevilla slipped back to third in the table, they still have a chance to do a treble.  They also have Sevilla just two points behind. This weekend Sevilla plays Recreativo de Huleva the oldest club in Spain. Recreativo are having a terrific season and are pushing for a spot in next season’s UEFA Cup.

 At the other end of the table it is 18th vs. 16th with Celta Vigo playing Levante.  Celta have lost their last 3 and have only one win in their last 10. The arrival of Hristo Stoitchkov as coach has done little to stem the bleeding. Levante have only two away wins and Celta have with only 2 home wins so a draw would not be a surprise. In fact Celta Vigo would probably prefer to play away from home given that they have taken 18 of their 30 points on the road.  

The bottom two teams Gimnastic and Real Sociedad face each other. A loss for Gimnastic would mean almost certain relegation as it would leave them at least nine points from safety with only 12 points still to play for.  Real Sociedad’s position is not much better and are only three points better off than Gimnastic. Sociedad gained their only win on the road in their last away game against Real Betis.

All eyes on the Premiership will be on the games at Old Trafford and Bramall Lane. These matches will decide the final relegation spot. A draw or better for West Ham away to nine time Premiership Champions Manchester United will secure Premiership football next season – as long as the civil legal system does not become involved. Wigan know that anything less than a win against fellow strugglers Sheffield United will drop them back to the Championship after two seasons of Premiership football. 

A draw is good enough for Sheffield although they could survive even if they and West Ham both lose. Three teams would then be tied on 38 points but Wigan would have a better goal difference than Sheffield. The last spot would then depend on how many goals Sheffield and West Ham lose by on Sunday.

While two teams will be happy come Sunday night the Premiership play offs get underway on Saturday.

If West Bromwich Albion manages to win the play-offs and join Birmingham and Sunderland in net season’s Premiership it will be the first time since 1914-15 that all the teams relegated from the top flight will bounced straight back.  Back then it was Preston North End and Derby County achieved the feat.  Southampton needed to win their last three games of the regular season to make it into the play offs for the first time. But for manager George Burley it is his seventh play off series and so far he has only experienced one success. Derby manager Billy Davies has had a team (Preston North End) in the play offs the last two years and has gone out at the semi and final stages. Derby won regular season series with a win and a draw. The strikers to watch out for are Steve Howard (Derby) with 16 goals and Grzegorz Rasiak of Southampton – a former Derby player before a move to Spurs – with 18 goals.  

The other semi final is the Black Country derby between Wolves and West Brom. At the midway point Wolves were down in 14th spot but worked there way up to a 5th place finish. Goals were a problem for Wolves – 59 was the lowest total of teams finishing in the top ten – but they did get into a good habit of winning tight games. Wolves had seven 1-0 wins away from home. On the other hand West Brom scored more goals at home (51) than any other side. The season series was split with a win each.

Play off predictions anyone?  

Jeremy St. Louis and I will be in Toronto this weekend to augment the FSC crew as they broadcast the Toronto FC vs. Chicago Fire match. We are both looking forward to seeing BMO Field for the first and enjoying the atmosphere generated by another full house of almost 20,000 fans.

 

David Lacey comments on some of the moves during the transfer window in England.

Stuart James with a feature on Derby County manager Billy Davies  who has taken them to the top of Championship.

A look at the situation in Italy after Friday’s rioting and the death of a policeman. The article draws comparisons to England’s crisis of twenty years ago. Ironically the current situation may mean that Italy will not win the right to host the 2012 European Championships. The influx of government funding and improved stadia that would flow from a successful bid seems to be one of the things that is desperately needed.

Patrick Barclay – another Dundee supporter – discusses the move by the likes of Brazil to play international games at neutral venues in England.

Jason Burt looks at the pursuit of Javier Mascherano by Rafa Benitez.

Stewart Fisher suggests that a push from the Celtic countries may lead to the Home International Championships being resurrected – even if it is in a modified version.

Another great article from David James – this one on why we need to love our referees. Nigel Martyn’s habit of shaking hands with the referee after the game is one that should be passed on to all young players.   

If you are to read one article this week then try this one by David Runciman.

 

 

Paul LeGuen’s seven months in charge at Ibrox makes him not only the shortest serving boss of Rangers but only the second to have failed to win a trophy during his tenure. (For trivia buffs the other was the much-maligned Davie White from 1967-69. White had the misfortune to have Jock Stein’s Celtic as the opposition.)  LeGuen also leaves the post without a win against Celtic.

It is difficult to comprehend how one of the most highly regarded young managers in Europe could so suddenly become a man with a great future behind him.

Only twenty months ago LeGuen had just led Lyon to a third successive French title on his watch before stunning the football world by resigning. A move to Italy or Spain appeared to be imminent in a matter of days but nothing materialized.

Over the next year LeGuen was rumoured to be ready to sign with a number of European clubs but each time LeGuen had a change of mind. When finally Rangers announced his move to Ibrox to replace Alex McLeish more than a few eyebrows were raised.  Even though Rangers and Celtic attract 50,000 plus audiences and enjoy a global base of support the SPL is not normally regarded as a stepping stone to greater things.

Some suggested that LeGuen saw the Rangers position as purely temporary until a big Premiership team – Arsenal was frequently mentioned – came calling. If that is now to materialize LeGuen needs to rebuild his career over the next few seasons as his time at Ibrox will remain a black spot for sometime to come.

Rangers’ SPL form has been abysmal while progress in the UEFA Cup as been the sole source of solace for the Ibrox faithful. The players LeGuen bought have been largely ineffectual, a trait he shares with the man he succeeded Alex McLeish. Both were forced to rake through the bargain bin looking for players that might improve the team’s quality while costing very little.

Neither manager came anyplace close to the extravagant transfer kitty enjoyed – and largely squandered – by #### Advocaat between 1998 and 2001. Few managers can have spent so much money with so little return than the man known as the “Little General.”

Now attention shifts to a replacement. Former Rangers manager and current Walter Smith as well as ex-Ibrox star Terry Butcher are the bookies early favourites. However, don’t be surprised if names like Derby boss Billy Davies and Southampton manager George Burley to surface in the next few days.