I am a bit behind this morning. We went to see country music legend Don Williams last night and so I am going to have to watch the EPL highlights show and the FSWR on tape.
Another wild and woolly weekend. It could not have turned out better for SAF (my thoughts on Fergie the greatest ever can be read tomorrow). Meanwhile we are still waiting to hear why Terry got sent off. Watching the replays of the incident during the match there is something very untoward about it. Terry and a Spurs player (King?) get tangled in the penalty box but there is nothing unusual about that. Then when Terry gets up and starts to move away some of the Spurs players are livid. A ruckus ensues then Terry gets called over and sent off – he says nothing which given what is becoming Chelsea’s natural reaction to referee’s decisions is surprising. Terry did something (I have read elsewhere that he threw a punch but I have yet to see it) otherwise he and the other Chelsea players would surely have reacted. Maybe Terry can come clean and tell Jose.
Anyway on to some weekend articles.
Anthony Stokes is on loan from Arsenal at Falkirk and he is currently the hottest player in Scotland.
Michael Grant on the club that the then Alex Ferguson left twenty years ago. It was a move that all but brought to an end an era when the Old Firm was firmly second class citizen in Scotland.
One of the British games great characters Tommy Docherty (the original man who has had more clubs than Jack Nicklaus) has just released on new book “The Doc, Hallowed Be Thy Game.”
Some interesting observations from Stewart Robson on the ability of Jens Lehmann and Edwin van der Sar to start attacks with excellent distribution.
Steve Tongue makes some astute observations about Chelsea. I find it interesting that on a number of occasions since he took over at Stamford Bridge Mourinho has been compared to Brian Clough. It seems to me that Mourinho has more in common with Don Revie. Revie’s Leeds team of the 60’s and early 70’s, although widely admired for the football that they were capable of playing, was widely despised for the cynical win-at-all-costs approach.
…….and now that I have brought up Leeds. After losing on Saturday to Barnsley, Leeds now sit 23rd in the 24-team Championship. Six years after playing in the Champions League semi-final. Leeds and new boss Dennis Wise are facing a relegation battle to avoid what is really Division Three.
Peter Risdale may have lived the dream, but he has the left Leeds to face the nightmare.
Let's take a look at the statistics before we look in detail at the last five teams in this seasons upcoming Premiership. The chances are that at least two of the three promoted teams and the pair that finished just above relegation will be dropping down to the Championship come next May. In the last 13 seasons, at least two teams from that combination have been relegated, and in all 26 teams out of the 40 that have been demoted have come from the aforementioned grouping.
To narrow it down even more the chances of all three promoted clubs surviving is not good. Only the graduating class of 2000/01 (Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham) has managed to survive intact. Conversely only once have all three promoted teams immediately dropped back down – that was in 1997/98 with Barnsley, Bolton, and Crystal Palace.
History shows that come May 2007 the most likely relegation permutation will be one from Aston Villa or Portsmouth; one from Reading, Sheffield United or Watford; and one other side that finished between 11th and 15th last season. That has been the combination 6 out of 13 seasons.
Based of past performances of teams promoted by way of the play-offs Watford has the most to fear. Only 5 teams out of 13 have survived their first season in the Premiership after winning the play-offs. However, Reading should also be concerned because the record of the lower division winners is not that much better – 6 times out of 13, the champion has become a chump within 12 months. The best survival rate is by the previous year’s runner up – only 4 times out of 12 (one year the runner up did not receive automatic promotion) has relegation followed. A good omen for Sheffield United.
Last season Aston Villa slumped to 42 points their worst ever Premiership points total although they did finish 8 points ahead of the last relegated team. (In 1994/95 they finished with four more points although four more games were played that year and Villa only finished the year three points ahead of Crystal Palace who were relegated.) David O’Leary left by “mutual agreement” during the summer to finally end what was an inevitable parting of the ways.
The appointment of Martin O’Neill has set off a state of euphoria amongst the Villa faithful. However, until the ownership situation is sorted out and money is available to strengthen the squad any improvement will be limited. O’Neill has never job-hopped and with five years each at Wycombe, Leicester and Celtic the Villa fans will settle for steady improvement over a quick fix option.
Portsmouth is a side that has already sorted out it’s ownership over the summer but even with Harry Rednapp back as manager it looks to be another tough grind ahead for Pompey. The revolving managerial door has seen players arrive and leave by the dozen over the last twenty-four months. Ten players have left during the summer while Glen Johnson on loan from Chelsea and David Thompson signed as a free agent has arrived. Rednapp is sure to make more signings in the next ten days.
One of the most questions is “who can do a Wigan or West Ham this season?” It might be Reading. In Steve Coppell Reading has experience of managing in the Premiership (albeit with relegated Crystal Palace), a hard working squad and a management team that is unwilling to throw money around. The Reading investments (Sam Sodie and Seol Ki Hyeon) have so far been limited although a centre back continues to be a priority. However, it might be Reading’s ability to score goals that sees them survive in the Premiership.
Controversy and Neil Warnock go together like a rash and …poison ivy. If Warnock goes more than five games without hitting the headlines it will be a major shock. On the transfer front, the major acquisition has been defender Claude Davis from Preston although he is likely to miss the first part of the season through injury. Other arrivals include Mikele Leigertwood (Crystal Palace), Li Tie (from Everton) and David Sommeil (Manchester City).
Without any doubt, Watford was the surprise package of last season in the Championship. Tipped as relegation fodder the Hornets stunned the pundits and gained promotion after comfortably beating Crystal Palace and Leeds United in the play-offs. Manager Adrian Boothroyd was very much the flavour of the month come the end of last season but it will be interesting to see how long that lasts as Watford bring their “direct approach” to the Premiership.
Over the weekend, Danny Shittu opted for a shot at the premiership with Watford in preference to joining West Brom. Boothroyd has also added experience in the form of Damien Francis (Wigan) and Chris Powell (Charlton).
A consequence of the burgeoning interest in the Premiership around the world is the trickle down effect on the Championship. As teams are relegated from the Premiership, fans who have taken these clubs to heart stick with them hoping for a reversal in fortune.
And there are a significant number of these cases when you consider that after fourteen seasons of the Premiership only seven teams - Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham Hotspur - have been ever present. Reading will, in a couple of weeks, become the fortieth club to play in the Premiership when season fifteenth gets underway.
Fifteen of the twenty-four Championship sides that kick-off a new season on Saturday have at one time or another competed in the Premiership (marked P). That leaves five former Premiership sides unaccounted for and there in lies a cautionary tale. Far from being a launching pad for a return to the Premiership the Championship can often turn out to be another trap door to an even lower level or worse.
Bradford City, Nottingham Forest and Oldham will all start the new season in League One while Swindon Town has plummeted even lower after being relegated from that division last season. The one remaining club Wimbledon is defunct.
For what it is worth here is my take on how the 2006/07 edition of the Championship might shape up.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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