Here is the original synopsis and predictions for 2007/08 revisited with the addition of the final finishes, the highs and the lows and a couple of semi interesting statistics. So here is an opportunity to share my gaffs and a couple of thoughts that were reasonably close. And before some of you laugh too hard I will be linking back to the original comments and predictions that were posted back in August 2007 once the Whoops signal stops appearing.
Arsenal
Synopsis – If Arsenal is going to better last season’s record then there are two areas ripe for improvement. The first is their record against lower half opposition – last season Arsenal only won half of these games. The other is to get their noses in front. Last season Arsenal gave up the first goal in twenty Premiership games and although they collected 22 points in these matches (more than any other club) a repeat performance would nix any chance they might have of pushing the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United.
Arsenal needs to improve defensively – particularly on cross balls – and the wide midfield players (Rosicky, Hleb and possibly Eboue) need to chip in with goals. Gunner fans will be looking for Robin Van Persie to establish himself as a top rate striker while new arrival Eduardo Da Silva (work permit granted) needs to show that he can replicate his Dynamo Zagreb form at a higher level.
The departure of Thierry Henry has set off a wave of “Arsenal-in-decline” stories – don’t be surprised if his departure has the reverse effect.
Season’s narrative – Can Arsenal prosper without Thierry Henry?
Prediction–3rd. Actual–3rd. High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – An improvement of 15 points from last season (5 at home, 10 away) and the highest ever total points recorded by a team finishing 3rd in the Premiership.
Bolton
Synopsis – Although Sam Allardyce resigned before the end of last season this really is the start of the post big-Sam era. His replacement Sammy Lee has to prove that he can successfully move from his coaching position to the number one job – something that others have failed to accomplish at other clubs.
At first blush Lee appears to be mimicking the eclectic mix that was so successful under Allardyce. Arrivals from Europe (Cid, Dzemalli and Harsanyi), a veteran English midfielder written off by others (McCann), an underachieving defender (Samuel) and a bustling hard-working striker who to date has failed to make his mark in the Premiership (Helguson). Toss in a loan deal for Christian Wilhelmsson and you have very much the same recipe albeit with a different cook.
Bolton never dropped lower than 8th all last season in the Premiership - a repeat would be a remarkable achievement.
Season’s narrative – Can Little Sam make Bolton fans forget Big Sam?
Prediction – 15th Actual – 16th High – 13th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Bolton experienced the largest loss in points season over season – 20 fewer than in 2006/07. An unbeaten run of five matches at season’s end that earned Bolton eleven points brought salvation. To generate the points Bolton scored only six goals but conceded only two – just like old times at the Reebok.
Middlesbrough
Synopsis – In the last five seasons Boro has been as high as 7th and as low as 14th. Based on this summer’s moves the team is more likely to finish closer to 14th than 7th.
For all the abuse that is heaped on him Mark Viduka has been a remarkably consistent scorer since he arrived in English football from Celtic in 2000. He has average better than two goals every five game while with Leeds and Boro and that sort of rate is not going to be easy to replace.
Based on past performances Jeremie Aliadiere doesn’t look like an adequate replacement – even though Gareth Southgate has apparently been impressed by the Frenchman’s hunger. Tuncay Sanli is an interesting addition but he would not be the first striker to find the non-stop pace of the Premiership difficult to adapt to.
The scoring load will probably fall on the shoulders of the often transfer-rumored Yakubu Ayegbeni. So far Boro has denied that they are willing to allow him to leave should another club come in with a bid. Boro supporters should hope that the Nigerian striker stays put because without him Middlesbrough might be fighting relegation. With Yakubu a reasonably comfortable lower mid-table position is probably in the cards.
Season’s narrative – Can Boro breakout of mid-table mediocrity?
Prediction – 13th Actual – 13th High – 10th Low - 18th
Stat Facts – Not a head for heights? Boro spent one week in the top ten and only four weeks the season before. Middlesbrough finished the season with two consecutive wins – something they only accomplished one other time during the season – in December they beat Arsenal and Derby County.
Fulham
Synopsis – Lawrie Sanchez has spent a good part of the summer spending money. However, Sanchez may have added to the squad depth but he may not have significantly improved the starting eleven.
Fulham start their season at the Emirates Stadium against Arsenal and a win will equal their away record over the last two seasons. Not hard when the last two seasons have only brought about a win in each. On the road last season Fulham conceded more away goals (42) than any other Premiership club and finished the 2007 season with the longest current run of matches without scoring more than a single goal in a Premiership game – 12.
They also own the current longest sequence since winning by more than a single goal. Fifty Premiership games have come and gone since a 6-1 win over West Brom in February 2006.
Season’s narrative – Will the money spent turnout to be well spent?
Prediction – 18th Actual – 17th High – 9th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – Fulham threw away 27 points from winning positions this season. However, they did finish the season with four wins in their last five matches. The four wins accounted for half of the three-pointers they collected all season. They also finished with three consecutive away wins. Prior to that they had no away wins in 16 games and had only won twice away from home in the last two seasons.
Birmingham
Synopsis – There are very few holdovers from the side that was relegated at the end of the 2006 season. Lat summer Steve Bruce cleaned house and it led to promotion. Twelve months on and has been busy once more. In midfield Fabrice Muamba is now a permanent fixture after spending last season at St. Andrews on loan from Arsenal. He’s joined in midfield by French international Olivier Kapo (5th team since 2004). Gary McSheffrey proved to be a shrewd acquisition from Coventry City in August 2006 and he could be set to make an impression in the Premiership.
Up front Gary O’Connor will be looked to for goals after signing from Lokomotiv Moscow although Nicolas Bendtner (returned to Arsenal after a loan spell) will be missed. Birmingham conceded the second fewest goals in the Championship last season but Bruce has given himself some new options. Only Bruno N’Gotty has left while Ridgewell, Queudrue, Parnaby and Brazilian Schmitz (presently carrying an injury) have been added. Ghanaian World Cup goalkeeper Richard Kingson has signed although it is not clear whether Steve Bruce sees him as a replacement or back up for Colin Doyle.
Casting a potential shadow over the club is the ownership ambition of Hong Kong businessman Carson Yeung. Yeung has already bought 30% of the club and has plans to acquire the remaining shares. Full control for Yeung combined with a poor start and Birmingham may become the Hearts of the EPL.
Season’s narrative – Has Steve Bruce learned lessons from Birmingham’s relegation in 2006?
Prediction – 17th Actual – 19th High – 11th Low – 19th
Stat Facts – If half time results had held Birmingham would have finished in a comfortable 10th position. Only Derby County finished with fewer away points while the Birmingham defense only kept three clean sheets all season – a record shared with Derby County.
Liverpool
Synopsis – Last season’s challenge for the league was almost over before it began as Liverpool faltered out of the gate. That, combined with poor away form that brought only six wins away from Anfield negated an excellent home record. If Liverpool is to challenge for the league title then a strong start is mandatory.
Based on the moves that Rafa Benitez has made this summer he must be happy with his defense. Torres, Babel, Benayoun and Voronin have all been brought to Anfield to either score or create goals. Lucas Leiva arrives with a great reputation although he will have a difficult time breaking into the Liverpool midfield.
With Fernando Torres carrying the mantle of the Premiership’s most expensive summer signing most of the spotlight will be on the Spaniard. Views on the striker are polarized – the naysayers point to his average of around two goals every five games for Atletico Madrid. His supporters are quick to indicate that he is only 23-years-old and his Atletico strike rate is impressive given the club’s overall goal tally.
Liverpool finished 21 points behind the champions Manchester United last season and it will need a Herculean effort to close that gap.
Season’s narrative – Can Fernando Torres deliver the goals that Liverpool need?
Prediction – 4th Actual – 4th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Liverpool tied with Blackburn Rovers and Tottenham Hotspur for the most draws – 13. Only Manchester United scored more home goals than Liverpool (47 to 43). Ironically Liverpool gained four fewer points at home this season compared with last campaign although away points went from 22 to 34.
Fernando Torres became the first Liverpool player to score 20 Premiership goals since Robbie Fowler over a decade ago. What’s more of his 24 markers only one came from a set-piece. No other player scored more Premiership goals this season from open play.
Reading
Synopsis – Last summer critics were aghast when manager Steve Coppell decided to keep faith with the players that had secured promotion for Reading. When the Premiership kicked off last season not one Reading player had top flight experience in England.
However, Coppell’s gut instinct was spot on and Reading cruised through their first ever season in the Premiership. Once again, manager Steve Coppell appears to be largely content with his Reading squad.
Full back Emerse Fae was signed late last week from relegated side Nantes for a record club fee and joins another French defender Kalifa Cisse signed from Portuguese club Boavista. Leaving the Madjeski Stadium are little used full back Greg Halford (only signed from Colchester in January but sold on to Sunderland at a $2M+ profit) and influential midfielder Steve Sidwell (Chelsea on a Bosman transfer). The question of how and who will replace Sidwell (former Arsenal player) is still to be answered.
Last season Kevin Doyle carried much of scoring load with 13 league goals and although no other Reading player hit double figures 13 other players did chip in with goals through the Premiership season. Leroy Lita enjoyed a good run of scoring with six of his seven goals coming during and just after the Xmas period. Fellow striker Dave Kitson only managed two goals although he missed almost six months of the season after being injured on the opening day of last season.
Season’s narrative – Can Reading avoid the second-season jinx?
Prediction – 11th Actual – 18th High – 7th Low – 18th
Stat Facts – Reading only picked two points after being in a losing position – tied with Everton. The bottom fell out of Reading’s season both home and away. Compared to last season they collected 9 fewer points at home and 10 fewer away from home. The swing in goal difference – from +5 a year ago to -25 this May.
Blackburn
Synopsis – If Blackburn can hold on to the likes of Benni McCarthy and Morten Gant Pederson by the time the transfer closes then the pre-season can be regarded as a success. The form of McCarthy and Pederson last season was key contributors to a midway league finish and an FA Cup run that finished with an extra time semi final loss to Chelsea. Given the injuries to a number of key players last season it was a remarkable achievement by Mark Hughes’ side.
The arrival of goalkeeper Gunnar Nielsen may be more about Blackburn planning for a time when Brad Friedel will no longer be patrolling the penalty area while Maceo Rigters joins the club on the back of a series of great performances at this summers UEFA under-21 Championship.
Roque Santa Cruz arrives at Ewood Park with a great reputation but one that is not supported by the stats. A goal every five games for Bayern Munich is a disappointing return for a player who appears to have all the right tools. A resurrection at Ewood Park or a stop on the way to lower level obscurity?
Doubtless Blackburn will be as feisty as last season although a reduction in the number of penalties conceded (11) and red cards received (5) might help them.
Season’s narrative – Can Benni McCarthy maintain his spectacular form of last season?
Prediction – 9th
Actual – 7th High – 3rd Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Blackburn fought back from losing positions to pick up an additional 20 points – only Arsenal with 21 points was better. Blackburn only dropped six points (3 draws) at home to bottom half of the table teams.
West Ham United
Synopsis – A good number of players have come and gone since last season’s great escape but most of the attention this summer has been on Carlos Tevez. Now that Tevez has finally left West Ham fans can now focus their attention on the new season.
Manager Alan Curbishley has opted to strengthen the midfield and attack while keeping largely keeping faith with the defenders. Scott Parker will be reunited with his old Charlton boss and Freddie Ljunberg can still contribute goals if he can stay fit. However, French midfielder Julien Faubert will have to wait another six months at least before seeing Premiership action after rupturing an Achilles tendon in a warm up match.
The loss of striker Dean Ashton for almost all of last season to injury was a devastating blow to West Ham and hopes are high that Ashton’s injury woes are a thing of the past. He scored against his former club Norwich in a friendly match last week. A partnership with the fleet-footed Craig Bellamy might be a source of much needed goals for the Hammers.
Season’s narrative – Can West Ham bounce back from a traumatic 2006/07 season?
Prediction – 14th
Actual – 10th High – 5th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – In total West Ham spent 24 weeks and 18 out of the last 19 weeks in 10th spot. West Ham only won two consecutive games once this season – in September 3-0 wins over Reading and Middlesbrough.
Sunderland
Synopsis – Roy Keane was the story of last season’s Coca cola Championship and is likely to be one of the stories of this season’s Premiership. When he arrived a drop into League One looked to be a more realistic prospect than promotion back to the Premiership. But Keane set about the task of reinvigorating one of the great teams of years past.
Over twenty players were signed or moved on as Sunderland moved from 23rd spot to league champions. Keane has also endeavored to change the club culture as he insisted on pictures and mementos of past triumphs be displaced around the stadium and kyboshed the idea of the club publicly “celebrating” the promotion.
With only two players shipping out so far it looks as if Keane is intent on improving the depth of his player pool while focusing on younger players who should, in theory, still have room to improve.
Kieron Richardson should get a chance to nail down a consistent starting position after only spot duty with Manchester United. Michael Chopra returns to the North-East only twelve months after leaving Newcastle for Cardiff City. Chopra had been unable to break into the Newcastle starting line-up but 22 goals for Cardiff in the Championship last season had many questioning Newcastle’s decision to give up on the 23-year-old.
Centre half Russell Anderson is an intriguing buy for only $2M from Aberdeen. The 28-year-old has up to now played his entire career with Aberdeen and developed into one most consistent players in Scotland. Many believe that if Anderson had opted to move to a bigger club earlier in his career his he would have been capped more than nine times for his country.
Season’s narrative – Shaped by Brian Clough and Sir Alex Ferguson is Roy Keane the next great Premiership manager?
Prediction – 16th Actual – 15th High – 4th Low – 19th
Stat Facts –Sunderland may have been one of six teams that failed to collect 40 points but they still gained more points this season than in their two previous Premiership incarnations combined. Sunderland did however have the longest losing sequence of any Premiership team away from home with 10.
Manchester United
Synopsis – Sir Alex Ferguson has made a career out of proving his critics wrong so it would foolhardy to predict that United will not retain the title won last season. However, the planets really did align for United in 2006/07. Vidic established himself as the type of physical centre back United had been missing since the long ago departure of Jaap Stam; Paul Scholes orchestrated from the midfield rolling back the years as he gathered, prompted and dissected; Ryan Giggs was another who enjoyed an Indian Summer; Cristiano Ronaldo became the best player in the Barclay’s Premiership.
Can it happen again? Owen Hargreaves has been brought in to provide a more solid defensive shield in midfield while Nani and Anderson look to be the heirs to Scholes and Giggs. The “loan” of Carlos Tevez has now been settled and he will add some extra fire power up front - an extremely exciting addition to the Old Trafford staff. On paper United have strengthened the midfield and attack. However, should Gabriel Heinze be granted his wish to move then United’s back four might be a bit more susceptible to an injuries and/or suspensions.
Season’s narrative – How will Sir Alex Ferguson integrate all his attacking options while ensuring that the backdoor remains bolted?
Prediction – 2nd Actual – 1st High – 1st Low – 16th
Stat Facts – United spent 17 weeks in top spot and maintained that position from round 29 onwards. They claimed 52 of a possible 57 points at home dropping to Reading in the first game of the season and losing to Manchester City. United only conceded three goals in the last ten minutes of Premiership games this season – William Gallas (Arsenal 2-2), Matthew Upson (West Ham 2-1 loss) and a penalty from Michael Ballack (Chelsea 2-1) loss.
Everton
Synopsis – One look at the last five seasons should have Everton fans cringing as new season approaches. Each good season has been followed by disappointment and after last season’s sixth place finish a drop is in the cards.
However, if the Toffees can match last season’s performance of not losing more than two consecutive games then things may not turn out so bad. Moyes will also be eyeing the 13 games that finished as draws last season as a possible area for improvement.
With James Vaughn out for an extended period Everton may still make a move for a striker should one become available. The arrival of Steven Pienaar on loan should add more depth and a bit of goal scoring (15 goals in little less than 100 games during his time with Ajax) to the midfield. He will join the likes of Manuel Fernandez, Mikel Arteta and Tim Cahill in a midfield that if it is gels could be a stand-out in the league.
David Moyes will probably slot Phil Jagielka (from Sheffield United) into a back four that improved significantly as last season progressed.
Season’s narrative – Will Everton slip again? Prediction – 8th Actual – 5th High – 1st Low – 10th
Stat Facts – Everton only picked up two points over the entire season after being in a losing position but finished their highest ever Premiership points total. In the last four season’s Everton has finished 4th, 11th, 6th and 5th.
Aston Villa
Synopsis – Last season Villa may have finished 11th in the Premiership but they needed a nine-game unbeaten run at the end of the season to avoid a relegation dogfight. Martin O’Neill may achieved his initial objective of making Villa a difficult team to beat (only ten losses in thirty-eight games) but if his side is up the table then a good number of last season’s league high 17 draws need to turn into wins. That means more goals are needed from the strikers and from the midfield. Another ten goals and the defense holding firm could mean a move into the top six.
The jury is still out on John Carew (7 clubs in 9 seasons) but the arrival of Marlon Harewood gives O’Neill another option up front. O’Neill has under whelmed most Villa fans with the signing of Harewood but remember this is the same manager that resurrected the career of Chris Sutton. Gabriel Agbonlahor was a revelation last season but he may find that the second season is harder than the first. Nigel Reo-Coker will replace Gavin McCann and should bring more vigour and pace to the centre of the Villa midfield.
Villa had the sixth best defensive record last season but there is still room for improvement. An injury free season for Martin Laursen (he’s averaged less than 10 games a season since arriving from Milan in the summer of 2004) would certainly help while O’Neill may yet sign another goalkeeper to compete with Thomas Sorenson.
Overall the departures far exceed the arrivals at Villa Park which might lead us to conclude that Martin O’Neill is willing to go with some younger players.
Season’s narrative – With money going unspent will it turn out to be a false economy by Martin O’Neill?
Prediction – 6th Actual – 6th High – 5th Low – 17th
Stat Facts – Villa finished as the Premiership’s third top scorers behind Manchester United and Arsenal with 71 goals scored. Last season they scored 43 times. The extra goals (although they also conceded 10 more) helped them to five more wins than last season although their losses (10) remained the same.
Newcastle
Synopsis – Where do you start when it comes to Newcastle United? An incredibly well-supported club inadequately led over the years by bungling directors and often managers, is as good a place to start as any. But since the end of last season the club has been bought by Mike Ashley (although there is no guarantee that he will be any better than the others who have come before) and Sam Allardyce has taken over the managerial reins. But even then there have been consistent rumours that Allardyce would not have been the new owner’s pick had he been able to start with a clean slate.
As it is Allardyce has indicated that he is still in the market for some experienced players but even without any additional moves the spine of this team looks much stronger. New arrivals Czech defender David Rozehnal and Brazilian Cacapa will probably be the first choice centre back pairing while Joey Barton will become the fulcrum of the midfield. Up front Viduka and Smith (reunited after playing together at Leeds) will provide some added presence to a front line that was on the small side last season. Martins and Owen (depending on the combination) should benefit from the addition of Viduka and Smith.
Increased goal production is a priority for a team that was shut-out 17 times last season, and 16 times the season before.
Season’s narrative – Can Sam Allardyce bring real hope and progress to the long suffering Newcastle faithful?
Prediction – 10th Actual – 12th High – 1st Low – 14th
Stat Facts – In 2006/07 Newcastle enjoyed the 7th best record against teams in the top ten. This season they collected only 10 points from top half teams. But Newcastle still finished with the same number of points as last season (43) and improved their overall standing by one place.
Derby
Synopsis – Wining the Premiership play off is always a cause for great celebration but it soon dissipates as the challenge of staying in the top league sinks in. Manager Billy Davies has some good young players in the squad but overall it looks awfully like a squad built to do well in the Championship rather than the Premiership.
Robert Earnshaw (Derby’s record signing) will have another chance (he was with West Brom from 2004 to 2006) to show that can score goals regularly in the Premiership (to date 12 goals in 43 appearances) as he has done in the Championship (19 last season in an injury affected season). Steve Howard (16 goals) will likely team up with Earnshaw in attack.
Centre back Claude Davis who was relegated with Sheffield United last season is another player to be given a chance to prove his worth in the top flight.
Season’s narrative – How many times will Derby be described as gallant losers?
Prediction – 19th Actual – 20th High – 7th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Derby County now owns almost every Premiership record for futility.
Chelsea
Synopsis – Peace has broken out at Stamford Bridge. The enemy, for the moment at least, is the other nineteen teams of the Barclay’s Premiership and on paper this is the strongest squad that Mourinho has had since his arrival in the summer of 2004.
If Petr Cech can avoid injury it will only add to a defense that led the Premiership with 22 clean sheets. The on-going right back problem may remain although rumours persist that Sevilla’s Daniel Alves is on his way to Stamford Bridge. A work permit has been granted for Alex so the last season’s centre back crisis is less likely to reoccur - Tal Ben Haim as a squad player will also help.
That will allow Michael Essien to play is his more natural position in midfield with all the resulting benefits. The talk is a return to a 4-3-3 formation and if Mourinho decides to go that route then it is difficult to see how Michael Ballack and Andriy Shevchenko will fit in - essentially the same question as last year at this time.
Malouda was France’s player of the year and he carries a scoring threat. His work rate plus an ability to get past players makes him a great addition to the Chelsea squad. Given that Chelsea’s goal production dropped by 10 goals last season, more goals will be one of the critical factors if Chelsea is to make it a third Premiership title in four seasons.
Season’s narrative – Can Chelsea maintain focus and stop the in-fighting and strength sapping controversy?
Prediction - Champions Actual – 2nd High – 1st Low – 7th
Stat Facts – Chelsea only spent one week in first place – that came in round 4. Chelsea remains unbeaten at home for another season and collected exactly the same number of points as in 2006/07 – 43 points. Contrast these totals with the 55 points and 47 points they gained at home when winning the league in 2006 and 2005 and ironically you can see where Chelsea needs to improve. Chelsea’s impressive away form continued this season – 42 points from a possible 57 which is up two from the previous season.
Tottenham Hotspur
Synopsis – Martin Jol has been one of the busier managers this summer with another raft of new signings. Spurs’ start last season was woeful and they must find a way to integrate their new signings quickly if the hope to improve on their 5th place finish of the last two seasons.
When the team began to click last season goals were not a problem. Unfortunately as quick as Spurs could score them they let goals in as well. In all Premiership games involving Spurs produced 111 goals – more than any other Premiership team – but Spurs finished with a goal difference of only +3.
The return of a fully fit Ledley King will help plug the holes at the back and it is doubtful that England keeper Paul Robinson can produce back-to-back mediocre seasons. Younes Kaboul arrives with glowing recommendations. Youngster Gareth Bale (watch out for his free kicks) arrives from Southampton and is expected to solve the ongoing left back problem at White Hart Lane. However, there doesn’t appear to be a ready made solution at hand on the left side of midfield.
With a price tag of $35M the expectations for Darren Bent are justifiably high and many will be watching to see how Jol goes about fitting the former Charlton player into a strike force that already has Berbatov, Robbie Keane and Jermain Defoe pushing for a spot.
Season’s narrative – Can Spurs spending finally deliver some silverware as well as entertainment?
Prediction – 5th Actual – 11th High – 9th Low – 20th
Stat Facts – Spurs set a record for points lost from a winning position – 33 over the season. They also gained 14 fewer points than they did twelve months ago and that means they have slipped 19 points from two seasons ago. This season saw Spurs participate in another galaxy of goals – this time their 38 games produced 127 (66-61) goals up from 111 (57-54) the season before.
Portsmouth
Synopsis - Pompey was the moved improved team last season so expectations have grown since the club just avoided relegation at the end of the 2006 season. Portsmouth’s improvement was almost exclusively on account of their form at Fratton Park. Sixteen more points were secured at home last season over the previous season and only the top four lost fewer home matches. Only three teams - Bolton, Charlton and Chelsea – left Fratton Park with full points. Harry Rednapp will focus on significantly improving Pompey’s away form which was poor last season - three wins and only 16 points was a poor return.
Pompey appears to have strengthened throughout their line up. Sylvain Distin is a good addition to the defense – particularly if Sol Campbell should up and leave – while Sulley Muntari and Arnold Mvuemba will join the likes of Gary O’Neil and Matthew Taylor in a workman like but effective midfield.
Although Kanu’s future at Fratton Park is still undecided the arrival of David Nugent and Nigerian John Utaka should add to Pompey’s goal scoring threat. These two could be become very important players at Portsmouth.
However, the signing of Hermann Hreidarsson should be enough to sober up any Pompey fans dreaming of 2008 glory. Since arriving in England in 1997 Hreidarsson has played for Crystal Palace, Brentford, Wimbledon, Ipswich and Charlton. Only Brentford escaped relegation while the Icelandic international was on the books.
Season’s narrative – Can Portsmouth become road warriors?
Prediction – 7th Actual – 8th High – 4th Low – 15th
Stat Facts – Portsmouth had the most consecutive wins away from home this season - 6. When opening the scoring Pompey was the only side with a 100% record 14 out of 14. But they did fail to find the mark 15 times - only Sunderland and Derby were worse. Even so Portsmouth improved on last season’s previous high water mark of a 9th place finish and 54 points with three more points and one place higher.
Manchester City
Synopsis – If City supporters felt as if they spent last season in purgatory, the good news is that miserable situation may get better. The bad news is that it might not get all that much better even though a lot of cash has been splashed this summer.
Sven Goran Eriksson, successful in Sweden, Italy and Portugal, has been throughout his career a counter-attacking coach and so the City Of Manchester Stadium may again be a ground where thrills are administered from a drip. However, given that City only scored ten goals at home all season and set a new top flight record for scoring futility in the process it really can’t get any worse.
Bulgarian Martin Petrov looks to be a good acquisition and Geovanni has been brought in to add some craft in the last third of the field. Since his move to Europe the 27-year-old has done little to fulfill his earlier promise – City might be his last chance. Swiss youngster Gelson Fernandes is another recruit and he will battle for a midfield spot.
Rolando Bianchi was a scoring sensation (18 goals) with Reggina last season but he has little else in his career to substantiate the fee of over $16M that City paid for his services. A few seasons ago when with Lecce Bulgarian Valeri Bozhinov was one of the great young up and coming players. Since then his career has been moving but more sideways than ahead. If the pairing can hit it off then City’s prospects will look a lot rosier. However that is a very big if.
Elano, Javier Garrido and Vedran Corluka were added at one fell swoop last week bringing new signings so far to 8 and not one English player amongst them. With Sylvain Distin off to Portsmouth, Eriksson will likely opt to move Micah Richards to centre back. Eriksson will focus on making his side more difficult to beat but from there on he may run out of ideas – on the field anyway.
Season’s narrative – Is the Manchester City secretarial pool safe?
Prediction – 12th Actual – 9th High – 1st Low – 9th
Stat Facts – Of the top ten teams only Manchester City show up in the bottom half of the “second-half” table. City matched their best ever Premiership placing of ninth and could have improved on that if that had been able to hold on to a modicum of their early season home form. City took a maximum twenty-seven points from their first nine matches at the City of Manchester Stadium but only ten points from their last ten games at home. Even so City finished with a season-to-season improvement of 13 points.
Wigan
Synopsis – Apart from a relegation saving final day of the season win over Sheffield United the latter part of last season is something that Wigan do not want to replicate. Last season Wigan took 18 points from their first 12 games; and 20 points from their other 26 games. They also conceded more goals at home (30) than any other team and suffered more losses at home than any other team in the Premiership – 10. And just for good measure Wigan led the Premiership in the unwanted category of points dropped from winning positions – a massive 26 points.
More than enough for new manager Chris Hutchings to work on you would think. He will be hoping that injury-dogged keeper Chris Kirkland stays. In front of Kirkland the arrival of Titus Bramble and Mario Melchiot is to say the least being met with some raised eyebrows.
Michael Brown brings his unique competitive (I’m being kind) qualities to the JJB along with former WBA midfielder Jason Koumas. Up front Antoine Sibierski is the only addition and it is doubtful that the 33-year-old Frenchman is suddenly going to become a regular goal scorer.
Season’s narrative – Who will replace Chris Hutchings when he is fired in November?
Prediction – 20th Actual – 14th High – 1st Low – 19th
Stat Facts – After spending nine of the first 24 rounds in the relegation zone Wigan “escaped” never to return over the remaining 14 rounds. With Steve Bruce in charge Wigan won eight, lost eight and drew eight.
Actual Prediction Manchester United 1 2 Chelsea 2 1 Arsenal 3 3 Liverpool 4 4 Everton 5 8 Aston Villa 6 6 Blackburn 7 9 Portsmouth 8 7 Manchester City 9 12 West Ham United 10 14 Tottenham Hotspur 11 5 Newcastle 12 10 Middlesbrough 13 13 Wigan 14 20 Sunderland 15 16 Bolton 16 15 Fulham 17 18 Reading 18 11 Birmingham 19 17 Derby 20 19
And finally I took a look back to your comments from August 2007.
From what I can see nobody got the top three correct let alone the top five although there were around ten of you that correctly chose United followed by Chelsea. The relegation predictions came no closer to reality. No one got all three right although there were a solid number of you who targeted Birmingham and Derby County.
For all of you who contributed thank you and a special award to andesras6292 who wrote on August 14, 2007 – “bobby your predictions suck. and anyone who think arsenal is going to finish top 3 are crazy the top 3 are going to be liv'pool chelsea and man utd not arsenal. and liv'pool are going to stink because torres isnt good at all i dont see whjat people see in him he cant even score a one on one. last game he missed world class chances and if he is world class he should have scored he is just a overpaid bad striker and isnt going to be good for liv'pool.”
andesras6292 – where ever you are – congratulations. You my friend, are without a doubt this blog’s version of Derby County 2007/08.
What Derby has to do to ensure the “worst-ever” tag isn’t hung on them.
Three games on Thursday takes a toll so this weekend preview is an abbreviated version.
Premiership – at the top Chelsea goes into the second last week of the Premiership hoping that Manchester United might come a cropper against their recently anointed bogey team West Ham United. On the other hand United are hoping the same thing as Chelsea’s results at Newcastle have been less than sterling over the last few seasons.
West Ham United has beaten Manchester United in their last three encounters. One of the three was the epic last match of the season that saw Carlos Tevez – then in different colours – score the only goal of the game and one that kept the Hammers in the top flight.
Nearly twelve months on West Ham sits comfortably in mid-table – as they have done for a good part of the season – already seven points better off than last season. The defensive statistics show the biggest improvement with 15 less goals conceded than during the 2006/07 season. After an impressive start away from home West Ham’s road form has slumped. The first nine away games brought sixteen points from a possible 27, the latest nine only one win, two draws and four goals scored.
Chelsea is unbeaten in their last nineteen Premiership games and has collected more away points than any other Premiership side – 39. Twenty three of these points have come in the nine away matches.
They face a Newcastle side that is unbeaten in their last seven matches with six of them wins. Newcastle has only lost once to Chelsea on their last five Premiership visits (3 Newcastle wins and the other a draw).
Premiership – at the bottom Anything less than a win for Fulham and they will have to look to Reading and Bolton both losing if they are to retain an interest in Premiership survival going into the final weekend. A draw for Birmingham will guarantee that they go into the final game of the season – albeit on life support.
Birmingham has enjoyed success over Fulham in the Premiership with three wins, five draws and a single loss. The loss came at St Andrews in January 2005. Given their respective home and away records over the second half of the season both sides will be coming into the game with trepidation rather than confidence.
Fulham have only picked up seven points in last 9 home matches (2 wins and 1 draw and 5 goals for) and Birmingham are without an away win since a last minute winner at White Hart Lane on December 2. Since then they have only only picked up two away draws. A small encouragement for the Brummies will be a London record of a win, two draws and a tough opening day loss at Stamford Bridge.
Bolton have bounced back from a 4-0 hammering at the hands of Villa three weeks ago and 3-2 loss to Arsenal the week before with a couple of wins and a draw. Considering they have only scored three points and picked up seven points it is a case of making a little go a long way.
Sunderland are safe and that might just provide Bolton with the edge that they need – with a trip to Stamford Bridge next weekend Bolton will also be hoping that Manchester United sow up the Premiership title this weekend.
With sixty-five goals against Reading’s defense has been a major weakness this season. What’s more it doesn’t help their survival hopes that the goals are no longer going in at the opposite end. Reading is currently on the longest current goalless streak in the Premier League – nothing to cheer about for the last 461 minutes.
Although Reading still has the relative luxury of a last weekend trip to Pride Park they desperately need to get something out of this match against Spurs. Earlier this season Reading blew 2-1, 3-2 and 4-3 leads before losing 6-4 to Spurs.
Foolishmoose - I have a tough one for you. Since the majority of my TV time is spent watching FSC, Setanta, GOL and ESPN Soccer programming, and with to my knowledge only ESPN carrying HD, but the minimum amount of soccer programming, my question is, do you have any inside info on when FSC may go HD?
Bobby – Sorry, I do not have a clue what is planned. What’s more I am not looking forward to that day. My imperfections will show up!!!
JayAlves – It’s going to be an interesting transfer season. Kudos to Spurs for firing the first shot and setting the tone as the season isn't even over and teams are going to have to line up their targets quicker or be left in the cold.
Bobby – I find it interesting that the move was made before the European Championships. A good summer tournament would have boosted the price considerably you would have thought.
RonW - Next year I believe they're increasing the number of substitutes who can suit up in the EPL... what effect do you think it will have on the games(if any, besides being better for the big spending/squad teams)?
Bobby – As long as the number that can be used sticks at three I really can’t see how will make much of an impact. Coaches who have been tempted not to name a goalkeeper will no longer have an excuse. Maybe the Premiership missed an opportunity to encourage a little bit more youth development by insisting that at least two of the seven named substitutes be under-21.
Gregz - 1. Bobby, what do you think of Fernando Gago? In recent weeks he has been putting on some remarkable performances for Real Madrid 2. Lots have been said about Hatem Ben Arfa maybe going to Arsenal. If it were to happen do U think he would make it? I'm thinking he is a bit light weight and every summer Arsenal's midfield players get smaller.
Bobby – 1. I have not watched Real Madrid the last two weekends so I can’t really comment on Gago’s recent performances. From what I have seen of him previously I would have said his performances have been underwhelming.
2. How many times has Arsenal been linked with a player they have actually signed? Eduardo, Adebayor, Rosicky, Hleb, Sango? I don’t remember of any of these being on the radar screen prior to signing so I would not put too much reliance on reports of Arsenal’s supposed transfer targets until a deal is actually done.
As for being light weight – he’s played as a striker (and on the left side) so he can’t be that soft can he? As for summer transfer targets I’ll throw out the name of Luis Suarez as someone one of the big clubs might move for this summer.
Thierry_Henry - I don't know if you watched Liverpool v. Birmingham on the weekend. But the 2nd Birmingham goal should never have counted. Jahidi was in between the wall and the goal keeper wanting to make it difficult for the keeper to view where the ball is headed. In that case I think he was interfering with play, even if the free kick went right in. Therefore he was offside. What's your take on it?
Bobby – I did watch the game and the referee’s decision was correct. First of all you have to consider the meaning of “interfering” and the regulations provide a clear definition. In terms of interfering with play a player is judged as such if he plays or touches the ball “passed or touched by a team-mate”. As Jahidi did not receive the ball then he cannot have been interfering with play.
Then it is a case of whether or not he was interfering with an opponent. “Interfering with an opponent means preventing an opponent from playing or being able to play the ball by clearly obstructing the opponent’s line of vision or movements or making a gesture or movement which, in the opinion of the referee, deceives or distracts an opponent.”
Larsson hit the ball from well outside the penalty box. Reina’s view of Larsson was never hindered or obstructed – you can see that clearly from the camera view from behind the net. The Birmingham player didn’t make a gesture or movement. The goal was rightfully given.
Jahmikes - 1. I think Arsenal's main weak spot is defense and have my opinions, can you give an analysis of our starting defenders and the bench ones, mine is we have a good starting 4 but on the bench we look awful sparse from Traore who was underutilized.
2. Do you think the recall of Vela will become Wenger's answer to his wing problems? I see him and Walcott becoming our version of Nani and Ronaldo.
3. I felt that Torres should have received player of the year due to the many external and internal challenges he faced in his season. Ronaldo's ability is without question but being in a stable team made it much easier for him to shine, wouldn’t you agree?
4. What’s your verdict for tomorrow? I think Ferguson is playing a risky game. He used similar tactics against Roma in the semi's and was able to go through because Roma had no real strike force up front to capitalize on their attacks, Barcelona is a team built to score goals, and if Ferguson plays an open game they will score, if he plays defense it will be a stale mate with Barca going through.
Bobby – 1. Biggest problem is dealing with crosses and high balls down the middle. I don’t see much wrong at full back except perhaps trying to cut down on the balls getting into the box. I don’t see the problem as a lack of depth if your central two are not dominant enough. Fix the first problem before you consider depth.
2. What wing problem and with the exception of Marc Overmars when has Arsène Wenger ever played wingers? Arsenal looks to get width from full backs not wingers. Pinning your hopes on a 19 year-old who has not kicked a ball in English football sounds desperate to me. There is nothing to indicate that Wenger is suddenly going to dump his system to incorporate two rampaging teenage wingers. (I’m not even convinced that Vela and Walcott are going to be wingers in the long-term.)
3. No I wouldn’t agree. The award is supposed to go the best player not the best player in an on-going transatlantic soap opera.
4. I have looked into the crystal ball and I can see United winning 1-0 with Paul Scholes scoring a scorching goal around the 14th minute after Zambrotta makes a hash of a pass. As for Barcelona being built to score goals – this version must have been built on a Monday after a boozy weekend.
LGB -1. Which team (in any top league) has been the most disappointing this season? 2. Do you believe Mourinho will end up in Barca, Madrid or Milan (blue or red)? 3. What do you make of Ballack and Drogba's on-the-field spat? Not much has been made of it because of United's antics and, of course, Chelsea won but is this kind of competitive edge what you need in a game like this, especially at such a crucial time? 4. What do you make of seedings in tournaments such as World Cup, Euro Championships and Euro Cup? Worth it or worthless? 5. How many goals do you see Liverpool needing to score at the Bridge for them to progress? How many for Barca at OT? 6. Final question: Why in the world is the PFA player of the year award handed out before the season is over?
Bobby –1. Barcelona.
2. Yes……or some other team.
3. I thought it was very funny. It was playground stuff.
4. It makes sense to me for a number of reasons. There are also different sort of seedings – there is rankings and also the system that makes sure you don’t draw three CONCACAF teams in the same World Cup Final group.
5. Two for Liverpool. And one for Barcelona!!!!
6. I don’t know and neither do I know why the voting takes place around February.
Jahmikes - How many goals has Arsenal conceded from set plays? And what’s their rank in this statistic?
Bobby – Arsenal 11 of 31. I don’t know how they rank but here are the others from the top six. Aston Villa 14/47; Chelsea 11/25; Everton 12/31; Liverpool 18/27; Manchester United 6/21.
ReggaeGunner - Who's been the best RB for the 07/08 season throughout Europe? I've seen quite a lot of matches still trying to come to a final conclusion.
Bobby – How about Maicon?
Redfan4ever – 1. As the season draws to a close and we all reflect on what has been, I was a wondering what for you have been the best, say top three, highlights of season from the various leagues (not cups) you watch around the world? 2. Norman Hunter was related to Ron Harris and Tommy Smith in some weird way was he not?
Bobby – 1. I will go with these three. Chelsea and Spurs sharing 8 goals in the Premiership. Fiorentina’s 3-2 win over Juventus. Villarreal’s 4-3 away win against Atletico Madrid.
2. Chiseled from the same piece of granite.
Redfan4ever – 1. If Chelsea fork out 55 million for Kaka, who would you see them using as a holding midfielder? 2. Also, do you think they would be able keep Lampard and Ballack happy if Kaka arrives? 3. Do you think Drogba is on the way out this summer especially after his temperamental attitude with Ballack over a free kick and his general demeanor against the Mancs last weekend? I do not think he is happy at all.
Bobby – 1. The same one they were going to use anyway – Mikel.
2. Neither appears to have been particularly happy since Ballack arrived so adding Kaka to mix will not improve the situation.
3. Drogba has been unhappy since Mourinho left so I would not read too much into the Drogba/Ballack tantrums as being some sort of turning point.
LGB - I like the offside rule that is going on right now. If we go back to the other way then we'll get goals like Roy Keane's getting ruled out in the 99 FA Cup semifinal.
Keep the rule the same as it is now. I like the fact that goalies can be "distracted". They are protected way too much as it is.
Bobby - You make a good point. Confusing a keeper is not the same as distracting him.
AlbertaGooner – Who was your team of the season?
Bobby – I’ll wait for the post season to list mine I think.
thewobengonboy - Recently Martin Samuel asked the punters to put forward selection recommendations for Fabio Capello. I was slightly surprised that no one went to bat for Tom Huddlestone. I have seen performances where, on his day, he looks like a poor man's Andrea Pirlo with his range of passing, and seems worthy of a look in an England squad where Beckham is clearly past his best. How do you rate him? Additionally, has Juande Ramos done him any favors by trying him out in defense?
Bobby – He has a great touch and is a very good passer of the ball. His lack of pace and mobility is a problem and that would be a bigger problem at the international level. Huddlestone played a good number of games at Derby in central defense before he moved to Spurs and it might well become his accepted position.
Thierry_Henry - 1 - Given the British malaise of not finishing project in timely manner, i.e.: Wembley stadium, London airport terminal death row, sorry, Heathrow... are you surprised on how smooth the construction of the Emirates stadium went?
2 - Do you think Tottenham Hotspurs will avoid relegation next season?
Bobby – 1. Amazed. Just wait for the Daddy of them all – the 2012 Summer Olympics. It will make the costs overruns for Montreal 1976 look like petty cash. 2. Yes – along with Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Portsmouth, Blackburn Rovers, Newcastle United…….
Roseboy64 - Eriksson to be sacked.....What are your opinions?
Bobby – Thirteen points up on last season’s position with two games left - difficult to justify him being fired. Only explanation is Sven becoming another victim of an egomaniac owner.
No doubt Sven will walk away with another big cheque and he does have his new TV career to fall back on this time. However, I think he does have to work on his camera presence – he seems a bit “wooden” – almost puppet-like - at times.
Ringo - Will Hamilton be allowed to play home games at home next season? I see their ground holds 5,400 will that be enough to keep the SPL happy?
Bobby – They have a Field turf artificial surface at the moment and it is being replaced this summer with under soil heating and a proper grass surface. I don’t know what the situation is with the capacity but my understanding is that the SPL has signed off on Hamilton’s plans.
MasMaz - When do we get your team of the season?
Bobby – At the end of the season and probably with a twist.
Thierry_Henry - Is Rijkaard done? He did not show any desire to win today. Starting Henry on the bench was fatal from what I believe. What's your take?
Bobby – His time was up well before today. He has come to the end of the normal life-cycle of a manager.
Zuco2 -Looking at the recent "achievement" of Zenit in the UEFA cup, does it mean that the Russian League is perhaps a stronger league then we might think?
Bobby – It depends on who “we” are. When CSKA Moscow was on route to their UEFA Cup win of 2005 I suggested that Russian clubs would soon be making their mark in Champions League.
To date that hasn’t happened so from my perspective the Russian teams have been disappointing over the last three seasons in Europe. There is money behind the teams and they have brought in some excellent talent. At the moment they are punching below their weight.
The North American disease strikes again. The hockey play-offs are on and the great North American tradition of rioting when you win gets underway. Surely this must lead to a European ban for all NHL clubs? If you ask me this is why hockey/baseball/basketball/gridiron football will never catch on in the rest of the world. If you can’t even get your reason for wanton destruction right, how can you ever expect normal thugs and hooligans to relate?
Real Madrid and Bayern Munich are a smidgen away from securing their respective league titles. Lyon are being made to work a bit harder to win their seventh consecutive French title although with four games to go and a four point lead on Bordeaux harder it might be but it looks like pretty inevitable anyway.
It’s possible for Inter to win another scudetto if they win (home to Cagliari) and Roma shockingly lose at home to struggling Torino. Not probable, and even so I’m sure Inter fans would rather wait until the Milan derby to sow another title up. That opportunity comes next weekend.
Which brings us to the Premiership and a match that will see Manchester win another Premiership title (I know Chelsea would still be able to catch United on goal difference but a goal difference of at least 20 makes the task and impossibility) or make the race interesting for at least one more week.
The fact that both teams hold a slight edge in their respective Champions League semi finals and this could be the first of two meeting over the next few weeks only adds more flavour to the pot.
No matter the outcome of this game Manchester United will finish the season atop of the mini league that also includes Saturday’s opponents, Arsenal and Chelsea. Going into the game United have 13 points, Chelsea 7, Arsenal 6 and Liverpool with four draws and no wins. Chelsea also enjoy a very good record over Manchester United in the Premiership and have taken more points off of them than any other side.
The defensive records of both teams this season have been outstanding (United 19 against and Chelsea 24 against) and when you add in the fact that the goals for either team have not been coming as freely in the last few weeks an avalanche of goals seems unlikely.
The Everton vs. Aston Villa match holds a lot of promise with Villa three points a flagging fifth place Everton. Only Manchester United have scored more goals in the Premiership this season than Villa (who would have picked that?) and they have recovered from a truly terrible march to score 15 goals in the last three matches – albeit against three of the cellar dwellers.
Birmingham were Villa’s victims last Sunday and find themselves in the last relegation spot. Birmingham desperately need at least a point this weekend against Liverpool and hope that Spurs do them a favour against Bolton and Reading come a cropper at Wigan. That would leave the Brummies ahead of the other two on goal difference and a run-in that has them face Fulham and Blackburn Rovers.
As chance would have it Birmingham are a bit of a bogey side for Liverpool with the Reds only winning twice in 9 Premiership games. A few years back a Championship Birmingham took Liverpool to penalty kicks before losing in the Carling Cup Final of 2001.
In Italy Fiorentina needs to see off sixth place Sampdoria to maintain at least a four point gap on fifth place Milan and to essentially kill off any reasonable hope that Samp might have of securing the fourth and final Champions League spot. Fiorentina have won their last six at home are playing a side that has a on the face of it a relatively poor away record this season. However, three of Sampdoria’s away wins have come in their last four games and only a surprising 1-0 loss against Reggina a couple of weeks ago brought a solid run to an end.
If Fiorentina can win this one then they will be very much in the driving seat with their remaining fixtures against Cagliari, Parma and Torino. On the other hand Sampdoria need the win to cut into Fiorentina’s lead but then have games against Roma, Palermo and Juventus in prospect.
Finally MLS has the first Los Angeles derby of the season and who is betting that this one will finish with eleven-a-side?
Craigy_f –1. Many see the CL in the last few years as a tale of PL dominance. It's hardly that in the UEFA Cup. How to you explain the difference in the two comps for PL teams (or other leagues) in the last three odd years. 2. Do you like the playoffs? 3. The last noise the Liverpool Supporters Who Want To Buy Liverpool made was about having the clout to actually have a dialogue with Hillette and Gicks. Apparently they wanted to talk ' intentions'. Will this happen? 4. Will Ince be given a bigger club or stick with much moved Wimbledon? 5. Tevez's stock must have gone up with that late goal at Blackburn?
6. Gimme your top five footballing flops this weekend, please. 7. What; off what goes on on the pitch; gets your goat when watching football. 8. Who will finish fifth? (In the PL, Serie A and La Liga) 9. Scottish Managers seem to do well darn sarf, why do you think that is?
Bobby –1. Many would seem to have a very poor grasp of what constitutes dominance. One win this decade hardly represents dominance.
2. Yes.
3. Until they have money in the bank they are trying to bluff their way in the door. There is a large chasm between fans expressing a willingness to put money up and actually writing the cheque. There again 100,000 of them could borrow the money from the bank which is no more ridiculous than what Hicks and Gillett pulled off.
(Couldn't resist the notion that the ESPN commentator missed a golden opportunity at the end of the game today when the cameras panned over to Hicks. The comments was something like "owner Tom Hicks must now take his Liverpool team to Stamford Bridge next week..." Should it not have been "owner Tom Hicks must now take his half of the Liverpool team to Stamford Bridge next week..."
4. There are always teams on the lookout for a savior so I cannot see Ince staying with MK Dons much longer. He could take a shorter route to the Championship I am sure.
5. Three late equalizers doesn’t hurt but I think that after what he showed for WHU late last season there are not too many people surprised.
6. You get 1 and 1 a – Clyde losing to Hamilton and Queen of the South beating Dundee.
7. What?
8. Villa, Milan, Racing Santander.
9. If I knew sarf meant then I might be able to answer.
Gorn – 1. Your opinion on whether Fake Ronaldo's PK technique is caution-worthy/unsporting? Seems to me that it's not much, if at all, different than if he just took a shorter run-up. Is there another line of thinking? 2. What sources do you use to do yer research (ie: top away goal scorer in BPL in 07-08, etc.)? Any links appreciated! 3. By how many goals will LFC beat Chelsea in both legs of the CL semi? 4. There appears to be a few quality strikers available this summer (Berbatov, Huntelaar, Villa, Henry, Crouch & hell even Ronaldinho). Do you think this will create a bit of a market correction in transfer prices? Or will this be the priciest market in years? I know you don't like to speculate on things like specific transfers, just wondering yer general feeling on what you anticipate happening, especially w/so many top teams rumoured to be changing managers.... 5. Do you think MLS needs a marquee team or 3 to stimulate rivalries/dynasties like the BPL has? Not advocating a class system exactly, but maybe more along the lines of brand development & recognition. Beckham helps, but if his team is pants, it doesn't help MLS. Further, MLS seems not yet able to simply throw $ at players to solve the problem like NASL did.
Maybe MLS would be served by having more than one team in a big city like NY to create a derby. Thoughts?
6. Dis/agree that there are at most 3 Canadian cities than can support an MLS team?
Bobby – 1. Nothing wrong with it whatsoever.
2. I hunt through stats sites. There is not one that has everything and in some cases the information doesn’t seem to exist. Most of the time it is a case of getting raw information and adding things up. I don’t think I use any sites that I or others haven’t referenced before; BBC, Fox, Telegraph, Soccerbot (probably my favourite), soccerbase.com, premiersoccerstats, RSSSF, channel 4 are the normal haunts. I also buy the European Book of Football each year which contains a statistical recap of every league in Europe plus international games.
3. Leading the witness – can’t have that. And do you now wish to rephrase the question after today?
4. Prices aren’t necessarily dependent on supply but are more influenced by money in the system. In the last few years that has been Premier League money and there is no indication that the money will dry up. I would also suggest that managers are not looking for strikers per se they are looking for specific types of strikers depending on their needs.
Berbatov is going to give you imagination, silky skills, and the ability to lead the line. Crouch is going to provide you with a lethal five yard pass back towards his own goal and ….come to think of it how many goals has your list of quality strikers actually scored this season?
Huntelaar 34 goals – we know from experience that goals in the Dutch league do not necessarily translate into goals in bigger leagues and he his coming up on 25 years old and nobody has made a real move for him yet. Wonder why? Berbatov 15 goals but also offers more. After that there have not been many goals from the others.
5. Use the words “brand development” and you are not off to a very good start. Rivalries do not come from plunking a team or two down in the same city. They come from years of games, incidents and shared history.
Rivalries cannot be manufactured and it is not just about location. After all if your theory was right we would be watching the Greater London League every week. One more thing – the NASL did not solve any problems by throwing money at them; they just caused more problems.
6. Vancouver I have no doubt. Montreal is a strange market and I don’t know enough about it. The others - not a hope of being considered let alone being given a chance. It is after all an US league.
Ursusarctos - "Should the Moscow [CL] final turn out to be an all-English affair this season, there will be plenty of talk about the Premier League being the best in the world. It isn't. Torres is right [that La Liga is tougher than the Premier League because matches are more competitive all the way down the league, and that English football is really all about the top four.]"
Yes. And it is too bad.
Do you agree with Wilson's (and Torres') analysis?
How would you rate Serie A? Does it resemble the PL, in terms of the quality being consistently concentrated among the top (6 or so?) teams, or is it more similar to Spain?
Leagues appear to tend to develop a quasi-permanent group of "haves", with the quality dropping off rapidly after-- Scotland's Old Firm and Portugal's Big Three are other examples.
Which major leagues would you consider to have the most turnover amongst the top group of teams, and the most competitive depth, over time (recent decades)-- and which the least? What factors might be responsible for differences between leagues?
Or does the competitive depth of leagues go in cycles, with England at the lower end of the scale and Spain at the higher at this point in time (and Scotland doing its own thing)?
If so, will increasing financial rewards, such as CL prize money, tend to fix "elite" teams in place, or are there contrary factors that might help to promote intra-league competitiveness?
Bobby – I don’t care one way or another. You may as well argue about the greatest ever heavyweight boxer. At the end of the day it is what excites and engages you – it has nothing to do with a subjective definition of best.
(I notice another MLS is #### discussion has broken out. We have been around this one before but someone has yet to tell me what constitutes great football that they will watch and bad football that they won’t. Fans relate through building allegiances and they have no idea whether or not they will enjoy a game or will want to throw up when they pay their money or sit down in front of a TV. There is no such thing as all games in X league good; all games in Y league bad. When fans dismiss a league as being rubbish what they mean is they don’t relate to it. It has nothing to do with the standard of play even though they make it out to be.)
In terms of parity England use to be the exception in that there were a number of clubs that had a real chance of picking up silverware every season. The advent of the Premiership killed that extended era and the Premiership took on the same character as Europe’s other main leagues.
Take a look at the teams who have won leagues and cups in each country – it will closely follow the 80/20 rule. Eighty per cent of the silverware will have been won by 20% of the teams. The difference between success and failure long tern in soccer is the same as in business – the access to capital.
No guarantee of success but if you don’t have access to money through a large fan base (which normally means a team from a large city) you cannot compete in the long term. It works the same for leagues – that is why countries with large populations generally have better teams and more of them.
There are a couple of exceptions but they are exceptions, not the rule.
I haven’t done the research but my guess is that the French league has probably enjoyed the broadest range of winning sides until Lyon started their domination.
The Champions League is installing or in some cases ingraining what could become a perpetual cycle of relative success for a relatively small number of clubs. Win their league and make it to the CL group stage generates money that their domestic rivals do not have access to; spend the money to improve the squad and qualify for Europe again etc etc.
Rosenborg had it down to an art for over a decade. Platini’s initiative to extend places in the group stage to more countries is in theory good and noble but it may also lead to a greater distortion at the domestic level.
MasMaz - I assume that tonight you will give us your opinion about Rooney being given free reign to do whatever he wants. If not I'd like to hear it.
Bobby – I can’t say that I have noticed any difference in the way that Ferguson is playing Rooney. He has been granted a lot of freedom all season from what I can see.
However, if you are trying to make some ridiculous comparison with Mascherano’s sending off against United then you will have to make a better case. If you can show me an example of Rooney running 40 yards to get in the referee’s face when he has already been given a yellow card and had no involvement in the incident then you might have a case – oh and your teammate has just been carded for yapping at the referee. Otherwise you might want to wait until you have a more credible comparison.
Neophyte - Did you see the Toronto FC/ Real Salt Lake match? It looked like the match ended with only one minute of injury time instead of the three minutes posted by the 4th official. Home cooking or poor clock management and communication from the center to the 4th official?
Bobby – You hit a sore spot. I opted to watch the Blackburn game, tape TFC, go out for the first kick about of the new season and then come home and watch three MLS games. Tape malfunction on the TFC game so the only part I saw was when I switched over at half time in the Blackburn match. I did catch the other two MLS games though.
Maybe the 4th official did as good a job programming his board as I did programming my tape machine!
Aldoray - Football clubs have a Manager and Assistant Manager and coaches. What are the roles each of them play? Does the manager give the overall plan and then the assistant and the coaches carry it out or is the manager always hands on with the squad and everybody else is just peripheral. Or is it different for every club.
Bobby – Unfortunately the answer is the old standby – it depends. Some mangers are out there with the squad every day, some occasionally and others hardly at all. I remember reading a feature on Martin O’Neill during his Celtic days and his view was that a manager can maximize his impact if he limits his contact with the players.
His theory was that with a lot of daily contact the messages that the manager wants to communicate are blunted and the motivational effect is dampened. I can only assume he still feels the same way.
There is a certain irony because that is a view from many years ago. Prior to Busby, Shankly, Stein etc. popularizing the idea of the “Tracksuit Manager” the preparation was left to a coach (rarely coaches!) and the manager would come in on game days to give the team talk. Otherwise he dealt with other things during the week.
JayAlves - Arsenal fans can sleep easy knowing Usmanov /=/ Abramovich from a money standpoint.
Last time I checked Usmanov was worth 1/3 or 1/4 of Abramovich and considering how Arsenals profits are going might become an unrealistic team for him to buy assuming the board keep entering no sale agreements.
They floated this theory on WSD not long ago but they were off the mark on one point. They said maybe the board is being cheap on purpose to keep growing the club financially so they can’t be taken over. Thing is though the board on several occasions have dropped the huge money figures that Wenger has if he wants so you could hardly accuse them of being cheap.
Bobby – I don’t think that theory stands up. First off being debt free and enjoying the relative luxury of a fully paid for stadium did not save Manchester United from a highly leverage buy out from the Glazers. The same would hold true for an Arsenal club that is in a poorer position than United were because it still carries a huge stadium debt.
A case could be made that by improving the net financial position (not spending money) Arsenal are actually making the club a more desirable takeover target rather than turning the opportunists off. Companies that enjoy great balance sheets and hoard gobs of cash are often bigger and better targets for raiders than companies with huge debts.
Think about it from a lenders point of view and what would give you greater security – your money to pay off someone else’s debt or go towards buying cash generating assets with a pile of cash already sitting there?
The Times feature on Fulham’s away form. St. James’ Park is about the only ground Fulham doesn’t mind traveling to. They have a split record of 2 wins, draws and losses in the Premiership and their two wins and one of the draws have come on their last three visits. Conversely Newcastle’s last win in the Premiership came over three months ago and it needed a late penalty kick to give Newcastle a 1-0 win over who else but Fulham.
Premiership This weekend’s Premiership fixture list has ten matches all of which have the potential to substantially change the race for the title, the scramble for Champions League/UEFA Cup spots, or the battle to avoid the dreaded drop.
There are numerous possibilities and of course one of which is that nothing very much will change. Even so it’s interesting to take a look at the various views of how things will work out with eight rounds of play to go.
The conventional wisdom in the media and on the chatboards seems to be that with a three point lead and a substantially better goal difference the league title is for Manchester United to lose. Arsenal’s four consecutive draws has put a dagger through the heart of their title aspirations while Chelsea could yet to slip in to win the Championship for the third time in four seasons.
Liverpool are the form team (and the team to fear in the Champions League) and will lock up the fourth Champions League spot. That will leave Everton with fifth and what may be the last remaining UEFA Cup place for next season. Aston Villa, Portsmouth (still have a very real interest in the FA Cup), Manchester City and Blackburn will be left on the outside looking in.
BBC pundit Alan Hansen seems to support the conventional view as far as the top four are concerned. Hansen states “if United beat Liverpool and Arsenal lose at Chelsea, Wenger can wave the title bye-bye in my opinion”. Early on in the article he says, “…..while Arsenal go to Stamford Bridge to play a Chelsea side who cannot yet be discounted when it comes to the title.”
When you consider that going into this weekend Arsenal trails United by three points and in turn leads Chelsea by two points then should United and Chelsea win then the gap between first and second will become five points with Arsenal a further point behind. However, that single point would seem to be enough for Hansen to dismiss Arsenal’s chances (whle five points is not too much for Chelsea to make up) even though Manchester United have to still play the Gunners and have to travel to Stamford Bridge.
At the other end of the Premiership Wigan’s current run of form finds them on 31 points along with Boro. Although both teams still fall within the group still under threat of relegation these two teams haven’t featured in too many relegation picks lately. The subject of Newcastle is polarizing with fans and pundits clearly falling quickly into the “stay-up” or “relegated” camps – no indecision on that one.
Depending on how you feel about Newcastle they either join the group of Reading, Birmingham, Sunderland, Bolton and Fulham that are trying to avoid the two other relegations spots or not. Bolton’s chances of safety are often dismissed based on a supposedly tougher schedule while in North America Fulham seem to a lot of peoples pick for a “miracle” run to seventeenth spot or even higher. Perhaps a case of heart dominating the brain.
So if that is a recap of the conventional wisdom what are the UK bookies saying? As bookies odd are set based on money bet it should align closely with punters current opinion. At the wrong end of the league the bookies are no longer taking bets on Derby’s fate while not giving Fulham (2/5) much of a chance of survival and they reckon Bolton (5/6) are going to join them.
If either of these two teams does turn their “fate” around then Sunderland are the next pick to go down (2/1), with Reading and Birmingham (7/2) coming next. Jeremy St. Louis could make some money by choosing Newcastle at 4/1. Wigan (8/1) and Boro at 12/1 are definite outsiders.
At the other end the bookies are saying that the finish will be Manchester United 1/3, Arsenal 4/1, Chelsea 5/1 and Liverpool 120/1 with a United, Arsenal and Chelsea the favoured 1-2-3 finish. Before the midweek draw with Tottenham Chelsea were the bookies favourite to finish as runners-up.
Around Europe There are some great games around the rest of Europe as well. In Italy the two stand out games are Fiorentina vs. Lazio and the derby that isn’t a derby, Inter against Juventus. Spain has Sevilla against Atletico Madrid and if the game is half as interesting as their first match-up this season (a 4-3 win for Atletico) then it should be worth catching.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid probably can’t believe that after dropping nine points in their last five matches that they still lead second place Barcelona by seven points. For all the ups-and-downs we have seen in La Liga this season the fact is that since Real left the Nou Camp with a 1-0 win two days before Christmas the top three teams (Real Madrid, Barcelona and Villarreal) have all collected twenty-one points from a possible thirty-nine. This weekend Valencia provides the opposition for Real and will be buoyed after beating Barcelona in Thursday’s Copa del Rey semi-final.
The Bundesliga has a top versus third match-up with Bayern Munich facing a surging Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern remains unbeaten at home although their points total is reflective of five draws in eleven home games. On the other hand Leverkusen have not won at Bayern in 19 years, and have only won twice in twenty-eight visits.
I will be on World Soccer Daily at around 1:15 p.m. EST tomorrow (Friday).
It is midnight in Baltimore and I have a ridiculously early flight tomorrow morning. The weekend preview is truncated for that reason.
There are a number of questions that have been posted that I cannot answer given time constraints. I try to keep up and contribute during the week but the bottom line is that the only questions that I can guarantee you an answer to are the ones posted on Speakers' Corner on Monday.
Ian Plenderleith on the debate over whether or US players should or should not head overseas.
A man who went on to make his mark in international sport remembers Tommy Taylor who lost his life in the Munich air disaster.
Saturday will mark the 25th anniversary of the death of Garrincha. Here is some you tube video of him.
The Newcastle vs. Bolton game has taken on a great more relevance with the eturn of wee Kev. Liverpool and Aston Villa could be a pivotal clash for these teams.
In Spain the Madrid derby takes pride of place. An Atletico win or even a draw will provide a boost as the second half of the season gets underway while it would also provide an opportunity for Barcelona to close the present seven-point gap.
The top Italian game is Udinse hosting Milan. The 5-2 win over Napoli has invigerated Milan fans and with Udinese one of theams positioned to push for a top four place the stage is set for an excellent match.
