This was an amazing and
enthralling match that hung in the balance right through to the final whistle. And
in the end Italy and Romania remain in contention for a place in the last eight
come the final round of group play next Tuesday.
Italy has Gianluigi Buffon to
thank for their first point of the tournament and making sure that they
maintained a fragile grip on continued participation. Panucci was got caught red-handed trying to hog tie Niculae for little apparent reason and with ten minutes left Romania got a chance to almost certainly send Italy home.
But the Italian keeper guessed right on a well struck but poorly directed penalty kick from
Adrian Mutu. Buffon got his right hand to the shot which then deflected onto
his trailing leg and clear.
Earlier in the second half
Mutu turned opportunist has he anticipated a header from Zambrotta back to
Buffon. By the time the Italy right back had realized what he had done Mutu had
struck a rising shot behind Buffon and high into the net. It was however a very
short-lived lead as Italy equalized with their next attack.
Giorgio Chiellini intelligently
opted to direct a header down and across the Romanian goal rather than go for
glory and Panucci snuck in at the back
post to tie the game up.
It was almost
inconceivable that this match could reach half time scoreless. Italy set off at
a cracking pace and keyed on the right side of the Romanian defense early.
Contra came in for special attention as Grosso moved forward to support the
Italian attack and Petre instead of playing in midfield found himself
augmenting Contra at right back.
It took fifteen minutes
for Romania to find any attacking intent but once they settled chances were
created in quick succession. Tamas and Mutu had shots well saved by Buffon while
Rat went narrowly wide from a long range effort and a deflected Chivu free kick
came back of the post with the keeper helpless.
The series of close
encounters reinvigorated Italy and the first half finished with Lobent making a
couple of fantastic saves before being beaten by a Toni header. Fortunately for
Romania the assistant referee’s flag went up for offside; replays showed that Toni
was not offside.
The best game of the
tournament so far in my book and the Group of Death, for once, has lived up to
the pre-billing.
France 1-4 Netherlands
It was the sort of day
that you want to bottle and preserve only to be opened when you need reminding
of how compelling, beautiful and thrilling this sport can be. While Italy and
Romania produced an opening act that threatened to one up the main attraction,
the Netherlands and France rose to the challenge and produced a display for the
ages.
A look at the final score
might lead you to conclude that this was a terrible performance by the French. But
rather this was a case of an astonishing performance from the Dutch. Think the
World Cup Final of 1970 when Brazil beat Italy 4-1. Was Italy that bad? The
truth is it didn’t matter because on that day Brazil was just so brilliant it
did not matter who wore the other jerseys.
And so it was today as the
Dutch put on a master class of passing, movement, shooting and finishing that was
quite breathtaking. While 4-2-4 made way for 4-3-3, then 4-4-2 and now 4-5-1 or
4-2-3-1 the basic premise of attacking and defending has remained stunningly
simple. When you attack you want to create space, when you defend you want to
shrink the space. A simple concept yes,
but something that is exceedingly difficult to pull-off - especially when the
opposition is constantly trying to counter.
It was concept that the Dutch executed today to perfection as they sliced open a
French midfield with a display of passing that was devastating. No ten yard
square passes to slow the tempo ala Makelele. The Dutch bypassed the French
midfield with passes that changed defence to attack in the blink of an eye. Meanwhile,
the French midfield with two anchors (Makelele and Toulalan), that should in
theory have been the perfect foil to the Dutch counter attack was left gasping
and chasing shadows.
Netherlands back to back
wins against the World Cup winners and runners up from only two years and by a
clear three goals each time is unprecedented in my memory. The question for the
Dutch is what do they do for an encore? France and Italy both
remain alive with the winner of Tuesday match also needing the Dutch to maintain
their undefeated streak when they face Romania in order to move on.
What a day.
Man of the match - Rafael van der Vaart. Amongst a number of very honourable mentions Ruud van Nistelrooy. Can't play as a lone striker? Hmmm.
Comment of the Day
"If someone talks about my
private life, for example, I'll give them a good punching. I'm not interested
in suing. I like to sort things out my way" - Luiz Felipe Scolari.
This will make it six consecutive appearances for Netherlands at the European Championship finals. They won the tournament twenty years ago in Germany, made it to another four semi-finals (76, 92, 00, and 04) and lost at the quarter final stage in 1996.
How they qualified The Dutch relied on their wonderful home record in Euro qualifying that has seen them go unbeaten since losing to Luxembourg in 1963. Six wins and a draw in Group G extended the Dutch streak to 41 games without a loss over the last forty-five years.
Both losses in Group G came away from home with the set back against Belarus coming after qualification had been guaranteed. The Netherlands finished three points behind Romania (the other loss) and one ahead of Bulgaria. Robin van Persie scored four times for the Dutch.
The Coach Regarded by many as the greatest centre forward of all time Marco van Basten made sure that there was long pause between his injury enforced retirement and his return to the game as a coach.
The appointment as the national team coach after Euro 2004 was his first senior position after working with youth players at Ajax. After the tournament in Switzerland and Austria, van Basten will take over the coaching reins at Ajax and will be replaced by veteran Dutch coach Bert van Marwijk.
Key Players The conclusion of the tournament will see the Netherland’s most capped player goalkeeper Edwin van der Sar retire from the international arena. Captain of the Dutch team van der Sar is coming off of a European-Premiership double and his performances in qualifying kept the Ditch goals against to only five in twelve games.
Rafael van der Vaart is the pulse of Hamburg of the Bundesliga and if given the chance by van Basten his midfield promptings and an eye for a long range shot could prove valuable to the Netherlands.
With the likes of Robin van Persie, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink you would think goals would flow freely but a return of only fifteen goals in twelve qualifying games tells a different story.
Great Euro Memory With losses to the home nations at both the 1974 and 1978 World Cups fresh in the memory the Dutch finally won a major championship when they beat the Soviet Union 2-0 in the European Championship Final of 1988. No one who saw Marco van Basten’s goal will ever forget it – a classic.
Synopsis Many fans second favourite country in big tournaments based on the quality of the football they consistently deliver… up until the last couple of years that is. However, the Netherlands only have the 1988 European Championship to show for all their efforts hence the reason for Marco van Basten’s more pragmatic approach over the last few seasons.
The back four looks to be little more than competent while the midfield may turn out to be light weight. One of the big name forwards (that is not necessarily a reference to Jan Vennegoor of Hesselink) has to be provided with quality service and hit a hot streak of form if the Dutch hope make it out of this GROUP OF DEATH let alone reach the last four.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Slotted into Group 9 alongside Scotland, Norway, Macedonia FYR, and Iceland.
Romania qualified for the finals in 1984, 1996 and 2000. They were knocked out by Hungary in a replayed quarter final in 1972.
How they qualified Romania’s only loss came against Bulgaria after qualification had been secured. Romania won Group G and finished three points better than the Netherlands and four better than Bulgaria. Adrian Mutu was their leading scorer with six goals.
The Coach Victor Piturca played most of his football for Steaua Bucharest and was part of the 1986 European Cup winning side. He was in charge of Romania during the qualifying stages for the 2000 European championships but was fired seven months before the tournament finals after a dispute over the distribution of bonus payments to players. He was recalled as the national team manager to replace Anghel Iordanescu in December 2004.
Key Players There are lots of very good players in this squad but Adrian Mutu who has resurrected his career with Fiorentina after a disastrous spell with Chelsea is the main man for Romania. Mutu often plays in tandem with pacey forward Ciprian Marica who moved to Stuttgart from Shakhtar Donetsk for big money last summer but a return of two goals from 28 appearances (13 as substitute) was poor.
Cristian Chivu made an impressive debut at Euro 2000 as a teenage left back before moving to a central defensive position. But lately Chivu has been providing defensive cover in midfield for the national team and has not looked out of place. Steaua Bucharest stopper Dorin Goian adds some steel at the back but can also pop up with goals at set pieces.
Great Euro Memory Romania failed to win a game at the finals in 1984 and 1996 and the first two games at Euro 2000 only brought a draw and a loss. Facing England in the final game of Group A play in Charleroi Romania needed a win to qualify as runners-up to Portugal while England needed only a draw to progress.
Alan Shearer opened England’s account from the penalty spot just before half time to tie the game at 1-1 after Cristian Chivu has put Romania into the lead. Michael Owen then popped up to give England an unexpected half time lead but right after the break Munteanu leveled the score.
With time running out Philip Neville fouled Moldovan in the penalty area and Ganea struck home the winner from the spot. Italy beat Romania 2-0 in the quarter final through goals from Totti and Inzaghi.
Synopsis This will be Romania’s first appearance at a major final since 2000 but this squad is a very good emerging side that must be cursing its luck after being drawn in the GROUP OF DEATH. However, Romania may be the banana skin that upsets one or even two of the other three teams. This is a side whose chances of making it out of the group should not be underestimated.
Coming Up in World Cup Qualifying Drawn in Group 7 with Austria, France, Serbia, Lithuania and Faroe Islands.
Gongatore - If warranted is there a side in Europe that you could see Altidore going to in the next transfer window? How do you rate Cruz and Zlatan at Inter?
Bobby – Moving clubs is an individual decision but from my point of view I think the rush to have Jozy Altidore move to Europe is ill-advised. He’s better off in MLS where he can play regularly for the next season or two. If he really makes an impact then when he moves he will be on his terms.
Cruz has scored goals throughout his career and continues to do so – a reliable goal scorer but well short of being one of the best. Zlatan on his day can be one of the world’s best players. It depends on whether or not it is his day!
Albertagooner - I'm trying to figure out how Patrick Barclay has managed to spot Arsenal's aerial weakness. Neither of United's goals involved a high ball hoofed into the box. In any event, both Gallas and Toure have a wonderful spring. I'd rather have them than taller defenders who have difficult marking strikers, such as Jamie Carragher or John Terry.
Bobby – I think Barclay is identifying a more traditional weakness rather than one that showed up on Saturday. The problem use to show up when Sol Campbell was missing and there is still a doubt in my mind about how well Arsenal deal with crosses.
It seems to me one of the things that they have improved on this year is not allowing so many crosses to reach the penalty box. I don’t have the stats to prove that and it could just be a case of Arsenal retaining more possession. I never considered Jamie Carragher to have had any trouble marking strikers. The only issue with Terry is that sometimes he can be caught out by a quick forward one-on-one but his anticipation and the way he plays the angles makes it a rare occurrence.
gabemar - Would you rate the chances of the three teams (Villarreal, Fiorentina and Man. City), who seem to be challenging the status quo on the three big leagues, at contending for at least CL spot until the end of the season? Also the last few weeks you have not been wearing your glasses at FSR. Are you wearing contacts or did you have lasik surgery? How do you like not wearing them?
Bobby – Villarreal and Fiorentina, Champions League spots yes. Manchester City – the jury is still out. Apart from a very poor start last season Villarreal has been a consistent performer in Liga for a few seasons now and it would not be a surprise to see them finish in the top four.
Fiorentina has an outstanding manger in Cesare Prandelli did a great job with Parma and it was unfortunate that he could not stick with Roma when he was appointed. Fiorentina’s Sporting Director Pantaleo Corvino has a great reputation and the two of them seem to putting together a very good team – even though they regularly lose players. Mutu is playing great again and Pazzini could become a very good player. There are lots of others as well.
City has a habit of starting well and fading and it might turn out to be different under SGE. However, it was interesting to note that Eriksson commented last week that he felt that other clubs might be preparing better when facing City. I think what he really meant was other teams were looking for ways to shut down Elano. Against Sunderland yesterday City collected three points but it was brutal performance by both sides.
I had laser surgery a few weeks ago and it has been great. No problems and I have my distance sight back again. Still need readers for close work in poor light but that was expected.
Flashman - How much longer can AC Milan resist the urge to pull the trigger and bring in a new manager? Huh? And how much longer can AC Milan resist the urge to make that new manager the former manager at Chelski? Yeah, the Portuguese bloke, Mourinho. That's the one.
And how long will we have to endure the myth that this year's edition of the Arsene Wenger Slight of Hand Show is the New Invincibles? Coz it ain't. It simply has to be said, because no one elsewhere has bothered to note this, that Arsenal, thus far, have played one of the softest league schedules imaginable. They've been outside of London proper only once in league play this year and coughed up an away draw to nasty Bla-hack-ahack-aburn Rovers.
Bobby – Ancelotti’s now served six years at the San Siro and his time has to be up soon. One way of coaxing the last possible piece of talent out of an older squad is to change the manager.
In terms of Arsenal’s schedule so far you are right but it is a bit of a red herring. London teams are all going to be in a similar position given that if you include Reading there are six London teams. That means that this season Arsenal will play nearly 2/3rds of their games in the London area. The counter to your argument has been put forward by a number of London clubs. The suggestion is that because of the high number of derby games London clubs actually have a tougher time of it.
Arsenal’s schedule is out of sync but that is down to the Champions League third round qualifying game that bumped an early season trip to Newcastle. As for being an easy schedule there are always going to be easy and more difficult runs. But if you compare to Tottenham’s schedule you will find that both clubs have played Sunderland, Derby, Manchester United, Fulham, Bolton, Liverpool and Blackburn Rovers. Spurs have faced five away games to Arsenal’s three. Of the remaining games Spurs have played Villa, Newcastle, Boro and Everton. Arsenal have played Manchester City, Portsmouth, and West Ham. Overall – probably about even.
PS – you missed Arsenal’s visit to Anfield of two weeks ago.
CIAO - When players and managers move to other clubs for large sums of money, you always hear them say "it wasn't about the money." The move usually is to a club that has a greater opportunity to win trophies.
That said, Ramos' move to Spurs puzzles me. He essentially built a good side that has been winning trophies. He quits too move to the Spurs. A club that placed 5th in the EPL for the past two seasons and has not won trophies. Does not play in the CL and potentially may not even qualify to play the CL next season...
It just doesn't add up. Do you by chance see some other reason (other than large sums of money) that would make Ramos' move an attractive one?
Bobby – Well the first thing I would point out is that Ramos did not build that Sevilla team – he has only been there for a little more than two seasons. He certainly turned them into trophy winners but the foundation was put in place for him – he took them over the top.
Sporting Director Ramon Rodriguez Verdejo appears to have played a more important role in turning Sevilla into a top club than Ramos. I don’t think Ramos tried to hide the fact that the money was too good to turn down.
Aldoray - What do you think about Peter Crouch as a player and his situation at Liverpool. I believe he is seriously being overlooked too often and he might be hitting the exit door at Anfield very soon along with Kewell.
Bobby – Here we go again. As I said on Monday night’s FSR a lot of people seem to think that because he is awkward to play against that it makes him a great player. When you hear Steven Gerrard suggest that Crouch has a great chance to break Jimmy Greaves England scoring record then you have to shake your head in disbelief.
The “Crouch is Great” lobby seems to base their views on his scoring record to minutes played as opposed to games appeared in. The argument goes something like this. He has an impact when he comes on and scores lots of goals so he should be on more often or earlier or even from the beginning. So let’s see if the statistics actually back up the view that Crouch is an underappreciated talent by Rafa Benitez and others.
I would suggest that the best statistics to use are from the Premiership. Reason – it gives a comparison to other strikers plus it shows the longer term effectiveness of a player against sides that are better prepared to play against the player having scouted strengths, weaknesses etc. more thoroughly.
Over the last two seasons and a bit Peter Crouch has appeared in 70 Premiership games for Liverpool – he has started in 47 and come on as a substitute in 23. He has scored 15 Premiership goals. Only four of these goals have been clutch goals – goals that either turned a potential draw into a win or a loss into a draw.
His average scoring rate is one goal every 4.66 appearances. That rate doesn’t get him in the top 100 Premiership scorers. Comparison examples - Henri Camara 3.41, James Beattie 3.99, Jan-Aage Fjortoff 3.36, Marian Pahars 3.07, Dion Dublin 2.81.
But, the Crouch lobby would argue, that goals per appearance are not a reliable indicator because although Crouch may appear many of his appearances are relatively short and have to be adjusted for. So in the interest of fairness I went back over the minutes actually played and converted into the equivalent of full ninety minute games.
This substantially improves Crouch’s average – it translates to a goal every 2.81 games, equal to Dion Dublin’s but Dublin’s average has not been adjusted to minutes played. I must have missed the “Dublin for England” lobby a few years ago.
So how does Crouch’s record stack up against some of his contemporaries? I looked at two younger players over the last two and a bit seasons – Robin van Persie and Bobby Zamora. Based on goals per minutes played RVP clocks in at an average o####oal every 2.08 Premiership games - Bobby Zamora a goal every 2.64 Premiership games. Both substantially better than Crouch.
The next point that is normally argued is that Crouch is good in the air. Given that he is five inches short of seven foot tall he should be. Well what do the statistics show? Four of his 15 Premiership goals at Liverpool have come from headers (midfielder Tim Cahill in two and a bit seasons has scored from five headers for Everton).
An interesting stat that sticks out is how few games Crouch actually completes – only 19 full Premiership games in 47 starts. And it is not just a case of being substituted in the last five minutes. His average stint in a Premiership game for Liverpool (based on him starting) when substituted, is just a few seconds short of 65 minutes.
It’s also something that shows up in his England appearances. Add it all up and a reasonable conclusion is that Crouch finds it difficult to play ninety minutes hence the reason that Benitez starts him on bench so often. Rather than playing him against fresh players it would make more sense to have him come on late when defences are tired. And guess what - he looks impressive.
But the “Crouch is Great” group then jump to Crouch’s goals in the Champions League and for England. On the basis of goals scored his numbers are impressive…….but. His goals for England have come against Estonia, Macedonia, Andorra, Greece, Trinidad & Tobago, Jamaica, Hungary and Uruguay - clutch goals two. In addition he has only completed nine games although he has collected 22 caps.
In Champions League last season he scored all seven goals against group opponents (although PSV were also opponents in the first knock out phase). It strongly suggests that again Crouch’s value is in his awkwardness to play against and uniqueness. Teams facing him for the first time have difficulty dealing with him but over time they solve the problem.
So if you are looking for a striker who is tall but not necessarily good in the air, isn’t up to playing ninety minutes, and has trouble scoring clutch goals then I guess Peter Crouch is your man.
As for heading out of the door – could happen but he will not be joining a team better than Liverpool that is going to give him any more playing time.
Syncrew - 1 Now that Avram Grant has had 10 or so matches in charge ,what do you see as the big difference between Jose's and Avram's Chelsea ? 2 Since it’s up on the blog I may as well ask who you think is the most underrated and overrated striker in Europe? 3 How do you rate Alex? He seems to be doing well in place of Terry and is keeping Ben-Haim out of the team. (Ignore that foul against Schalke.)
Bobby – 1. It’s quieter around Stamford Bridge and Sir Alex Ferguson is aiming shots exclusively at the Emirates again.
2. You will have to define underrated and overrated. As I’ve pointed out before just because a player is considered “overrated” it doesn’t mean that he is not better than an “underrated” player. If I had to sign one striker in the world it would be a fit Samuel Eto’o.
3. Alex - Good player although I’m not sure keeping Ben-Haim out of the team should be the measure of him. I think his potential is well beyond a competent journeyman such as Ben-Haim.
Gunner44 - Is it Healthy for the game that 3 or is 4 managers have already lost their jobs and it's only been 2 1/2 months in the league. Is it the managers that are to blame or the Board? I read somewhere that someone said if Spurs don't improve the whole board should be fired.
Don't managers deserve more time to prove themselves? Very few managers have the ability to turn a team into a winning side in their first season. Like Jol should have been given at least till Jan before they left them go. He had been in top 5 for 2 straight seasons and almost took Arsenal out of top 4. Taking ManUre, Chelski, Liverfools and Arse out of top 4 won't be an easy thing to do and Jol came very close to doing it.
Bobby – It is a merry-go-round and I think the managers are wise to it. Sign a three year deal for a lot of money – if you get fired you get a huge pay out. What astonishes me are the choices that some owners make – Sammy Lee and Chris Hutchings stand out. The cost of relegation is huge (even after parachute payments) and if the club’s finances are stretched with longer term player contracts involving Premiership wages even if the side is relegated then the a financial meltdown is possible.
Djnima -1. What do you think is the reason of Lampard's turnaround in form? 2. Have you heard anything of McLaren's visit to LA? A little bird told me that he may become the manager of the Galaxy after England doesn’t qualify. Becks has been recalled. Do you think he will make 100 caps?
Bobby – 1. The form of all players comes and goes and isn’t necessarily based on scoring goals. Lampard has spent the games prior to the one against Leicester in the Carling Cup shooting from almost anyplace. Just because they have started going in doesn’t mean that his form has necessarily turned around.
2. McClaren’s visit to LA appears to be pointless and beyond the ridiculous rumour that he is shopping himself to LA Galaxy I have not heard a reasonable explanation. If McClaren was looking to move then surely he would not be as stupid as this.
At least when SGE met with Abramovich he at least tried to keep it undercover. Has Becks been recalled? You are ahead of me on that one. How about another explanation – McClaren came over in person to tell Beckham that he has not been recalled?
Wiegs9 – I have a silly question that maybe somebody can answer. What are the large, reddish #### lapel pins that you, Jeremy and Mitch were wearing last night and the ones that the Sky Sports presenters (and some Premiership managers) are wearing? Unfortunately, I must have missed the show where this was mentioned. Thanks!
Bobby – They are red poppies that are worn in Commonwealth countries in honour of the people who gave their lives during the wars. Remembrance Day is November 11 and the poppy is worn as a symbol and a mark of respect. The poppy flower was chosen as they grow in Flanders where some of the most brutal battles of WW1 were fought.
JayAlves - "Fergie support for Blatter stance on imports Sir Alex Ferguson believes clubs should be seen to have 'a proportion of home-based players' - and feels rivals Arsenal would 'protest the loudest' at such a rule.”
Bobby – It is a sure sign that Ferguson is more concerned about Arsenal than the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool. I understand the full article quotes him as saying that all that would need to happen is for the Premiership clubs to agree to such a proposal. He is wrong.
Unless UEFA/FIFA are given full autonomy over soccer in Europe (and it is clear that will not happen) it would need the European Union to repeal the commitment to the free movement of labour within member countries (as it applies to soccer player) or at the very least agree to the exception under the terms of the "Lisbon Treaty" of a few weeeks ago which regards sport as special. It cannot be done unilaterally just because a few rich owners decide that they would like to.
Although I’m sure that the United owners would be happy to see the value of their investment erode as worldwide television money would shrink and the price of “home-grown” players rocket.
In a perverted way United are to blame for this. Before Matt Busby took over the manager’s job at United teams never groomed young players as a way to build a team. They signed local players who played at lower levels or proven professional players from other clubs.
It was United’s then chairman James Gibson and Busby who came up with the idea of signing the best young players and developing them. The initial focus was on Manchester youngsters but as the pool dried up United cast a much wider net to cover the rest of England as well as Scotland, Wales and both parts of Ireland.
That is why the Busby Babes came from so many different parts of the British Isles. Other clubs would complain about United poaching “their” local products. Arsenal is using the same philosophy except now scouting is done on a global basis.
MasMaz -I agree and disagree with your numbers on people watching Football worldwide. They are not anywhere as high as they claim but they are higher than you say. Especially for the WC final and the Champs league final. Did you ever see that movie about the child buddhist monk and his buddies trying to catch the '02 final?
Impossible to verify but I would guess that 200 million people watched the '02 final in Europe and South America between the 2 continents alone, adding the rest of the world I would say at least 300 million, maybe even 400.
Bobby – Television viewership of sporting events in 2006 - articles including numbers.
The USSF makes an interesting selection to lead the under-17 program.
And before we move on I think the comments from the UK’s minister of sport Gerry Sutcliffe are worth addressing. Sutcliffe picked on John Terry’s reported salary, as well as losses run up by Chelsea. He might have done his case more good if he had got his numbers right but even so picking on an individual is out of line and so are his general comments.
Sutcliffe’s comment included "people in the street cannot understand salaries like that.” That might be the case but the same people in the street aren’t likely to understand the kind of money made by entertainers and movie stars or any other highly paid individual.
It’s called the free market and John Terry and other players are entitled to be compared to other stars because that is what they are. They provide millions of people with enjoyment (and stuff to write and comment on!!) every week and any nostalgic longing for the good old days before money ruined the game is beyond nostalgia and is in fact delusional.
Over a century ago the first player was paid to play the game and from that point on it was about money. Before the abolition of the maximum wage in England the money flowed from the spectators to the owners with a relatively small portion finding a way to the players.
At least now players are paid commensurate with the revenue they generate – they are the product, they are who we pay to see. And let us not forget that “we,” as the fans, are complicit in the whole scheme. If we didn’t pay to see a game – either live on the box - or buy merchandise, there would be no money to pay the salaries.
The weekend game previews will be considerable shorter as I will be spending much of Thursday and Friday on airplanes. But here is something to chew over with over a quarter of the Premiership season already in the books.
One of things that I look at regularly is how a team is doing compared to previous years and, more often than not, the season before. The simple approach is to look at the number of games played; the points gained and compare the number to the same point in the season before.
Using that criteria and applying it to the top five finishers from last season the gainers so far are Arsenal (+8) and Liverpool (+6) while Manchester United (-2), Chelsea (-4) and Tottenham Hotspur (-8) have all lost ground. If you are attempting to project these numbers to a league finish in May you have to consider the final league points from 2006/07.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Liverpool 68
Arsenal 68
Spurs 60
In order to catch Manchester United this season Chelsea would have to gain or United would have to lose 6 points this season. For Liverpool and Arsenal the magic number was 21 points and for Tottenham 29 points.
If you assume from here on the teams would generate the same record this season as they did last season then the league table for the five teams would look like this.
Manchester United 87
Chelsea 79
Arsenal 76
Liverpool 74
Spurs 52
Chelsea’s magic number has grown from 6 points to 8, while Arsenal’s gap is now 14 where it was 21 points at the start of the season. Liverpool’s gap has also closed considerably dropping from 21 to 13 points. In the case of Spurs the gap is now an unachievable 35 points up from 29 points.
However, there is perhaps a more interesting way to compare season to season records. And that is to contrast the records last season to this one against the same opposition.
Because of relegation and promotion you have to make an assumption about the teams that dropped a division and those that came up. For the purposes of this example Sunderland = Sheffield United, Birmingham City = Charlton Athletic and Derby County = Watford.
When you consider this scenario only Spurs are actually doing worse than last season having dropped 2 points over last season. Manchester United and Chelsea are exactly even, Liverpool have picked up 2 points and Arsenal leads the pack having gained 6 points on last season.
Projected to seasons end and assuming no change to last season’s head2head records for the remaining games the positions come out looking like this.
Manchester United 89
Chelsea 83
Arsenal 74
Liverpool 71
Spurs 58
What this ishows is that despite Liverpool and Arsenal making early gains it is still a long road to catch United and Chelsea – even though it doesn’t appear that way when looking at the present table.
Of course you have to consider that given United and Chelsea’s records last season there is more down side than up. However, one area available to Manchester United are the two games against Arsenal – they lost both last season. And of course on Saturday they meet for the first time this season.
Others games that stand out this weekend include Blackburn at home to Liverpool. Don’t expect many goals in this one – we’ve only seen five in Liverpool’s last five visits to Ewood Park. In MLS to second leg of the first round of play offs continue with all three games evenly balanced. We can expect more goals than in the first leg - as we saw on Thursday evening between the Fire and DC United.
Italy has the Italian derby with Juventus against Inter. In Spain Sevilla “welcomes” Liga champions Real Madrid while Atletico Madrid versus Villarreal looks to be an intriguing match.
In midweek Marseille became the first French side to win in European competition at Anfield. Going into the game there was nothing to indicate that a team, fourth from the bottom of the French league, was likely to pull off such a surprise.
Nevertheless, Marseille did win, and now Rafa Benitez and Liverpool need an emphatic win when Tottenham visits this weekend to shore up support from some sections of Liverpool support that have grown restless over the last month or so.
While Marseille made a coaching change after Champions League match-day 1 and prior to their Anfield appointment, Tottenham Hotspur still have the same man in charge as they did on the first day of the season when they lost to Sunderland. The opening day loss and another in the next game to Everton turned the firing spotlight onto Martin Jol and it is still burning brightly.
Monday’s three goal fight-back to salvage a home draw against Aston Villa meant that once more the big Dutchman escaped the axe but it is inevitable that the day will come – and it may come after the trip to Liverpool.
In fifteen Premiership visits to Anfield Spurs have only won once and drawn four times. The win came in 1993 when two goals from Teddy Sheringham sealed the points for Spurs. (New England Revolution manager Steve Nicol was on the losing side that day.) Since the loss, Liverpool have outscored Spurs 23-8 over the 13 games at Anfield. The international break kicks in next week so if the Spurs board is finally going to cut bait then a loss at Anfield maybe Jol’s last as Spurs boss.
Manchester City continues to confound the critics and go into the game against Middlesbrough as one of only two teams in the Premiership with a 100% home record – the other is Arsenal.
Last weekend, against Newcastle, was the first three goal Premiership performance at home by City, since a 3-1 win over Fulham on November 18, 2006. It also marked the first time that City had bounced back win again after being behind since August 27, 2005 when they turned the tables on Portsmouth.
Leading the way is Brazilian midfielder Elano who has proven his worth by assisting on six goals from open play already this season. Up until last season a visit by Boro would be one anticipated with much trepidation. After all Boro had never lost to City in the Premiership (14 games) but last season City did the double over their hoodoo side.
The Columbus Crew are fast running out of games if they are to make it into the 8th and final MLS play-off spot. The Crew are two points behind Chicago who occupy the last precious spot and there are only three games left including this weekend’s tilt with FC Dallas. After this game Columbus will finish with matches against the New England Revolution and DC United - Chicago faces the same two opponents plus the Los Angeles Galaxy.
The current form of both Columbus and Dallas leaves a lot to be desired with the former managing only one win in 9 games and the latter picking up a full three points only once in the last 7 games. Dallas won the one previous meeting this season 3-2 after they came back from 1-0 and 2-1 down to win with a 90th minute Clarence Goodson goal.
Fiorentina has made the kind of start that has some pundits eyeing them as a squad capable of making a push into the top four. They are unbeaten in six games so far and have 3 wins. Two of their draws have come against Roma and Milan and along with Inter are the only undefeated sides in Serie A. Juventus provides the opposition this weekend and former Juventus player Adrian Mutu will probably be recalled last week after being rested in a 3-0 win over Livorno.
The Romanian has already scored four Serie A goals this season but he wasn’t missed as 21-year-old Argentine summer recruit Pablo Osvaldo scored twice on his Fiorentina debut. The youngster was signed during the summer from Atalanta after spending last season at Lecce on loan but he will probably return to the bench for the game against Juve.
This is a young Fiorentina squad and if they can pull off a win they will have done something no other Fiorentina team has achieved since December 1998. In order to do so they will have to stifle the league top scorers (15) and in particular, Frenchman David Trezeguet who has scored seven. There is little doubt about the match of the weekend in Spain.
Barcelona and Atletico is an intriguing game on many levels. For starters two of the game’s finest young talents will be on display and going head-to-head. The coronation of Lionel Messi as the latest King of the Nou Camp is almost complete while Sergio Aguero is using the summer transfer of Fernando Torres to Liverpool as an opportunity to establish himself as Atletico’s main man. Reports this week said that over half of all Atletico shirt sales this season have Aguero on the back.
Both players have five goals and both clubs have won their last three matches impressively. Up until last season Atletico (and Torres) seemed to have a hex on Barcelona but a 6-0 thrashing at the Vicente Calderon may have put paid to that. Even so Atletico are unbeaten on their last three trips to the Nou Camp with two wins and a draw. In fact, Atletico were the last team to beat Barcelona at home in league play and that was 19 months.
Rangers will be looking to follow up on one of their greatest ever away showings in European completion with a win over Hibs who sit only one point behind them in the SPL. Rangers and Celtic are tied on points at the top of the league but Celtic hold an edge in goal difference.
Hibs have proved to be extremely difficult opponents for Rangers over the last two seasons with nine games being shared at four wins each and a 3-3 draw. They are also the only undefeated team in the SPL although they will not be repeating as CIS Cup winners after going out to Motherwell 4-2 at the last 16 stage ten days ago.
Let’s start in Spain this week. It seems that while Barcelona confront a reasonably straightforward stretch run the other title contenders are being left to knock lumps out each other. Last week it was a case of Valencia having to beat Sevilla – which they did - and this week they have to repeat the feat, this time against Real Madrid.
If Valencia can collect another three points (they have failed to win back to back league games since mid January) then they only have to play one team presently in the top seven – Real Zaragoza – in their last seven matches.
On the other hand Real Madrid and Sevilla have to play each other as well as Real Zaragoza. Perhaps the team we should really be feeling sorry for is Real Zaragoza who is currently fifth in the league and ahead of Atletico Madrid courtesy of a better head-to-head record.
This weekend Sevilla faces an Athletic Bilbao side that has come to life in their last two matches. Athletic Bilbao has never been relegated and has finally dragged themselves clear of the bottom three positions in the league. Sevilla are going through a goal drought and this match may prove trickier than the league positions might indicate.
Barcelona have not exactly been road warriors this season and have only one win away from the Nou Camp in the last eight games. They do however have an excellent record against teams in the lower half of the division which is where a disappointing Villarreal side currently resides. Barcelona have won 11 and drawn four of 15 such games, while conversely Villarreal have only three wins in 16 games against top-class opposition.
In Germany, Bayern Munich travels to face the team currently one spot above them in the Bundesliga, third-place Stuttgart. Stuttgart currently enjoys a two-point cushion on Bayern Munich and after this weekend only four games will remain.
Bayern cannot afford to lose this weekend, because if they do there will be a very real possibility that next season their only participation in the Champions League will come from watching on television. For a side that over the last decade has won the Bundesliga title seven times, been runners up twice and finished third once it would be a crippling blow. Only four of the first choice eleven out under the age of 29, and it is clear that Bayern need to retool this summer. Without Champions League money Ottmar Hitzfeld may have to restrict his shopping to the bargain bin.
Inter should wrap up Serie A this weekend after they stumbled late in the midweek game against Roma. Lazio and Fiorentina are two sides that have recently seen excellent runs come to an end. For Lazio, two draws against as Ascoli and Chievo brought eight straight wins to a halt. Even so Lazio’s last loss was back on December 20. They face a Fiorentina side that lost to Parma in midweek after going 11 games without loss. Both sides enjoy two very effective striking partnerships. For Lazio it is Rocchi (15) and Giuly many five because he kbit okay because he is going to get very Kiel doolally gor (10), while Fiorentina can look to Luca Toni (16) and Adrian Mutu (14).
Lazio are currently sits third in the league 11 points behind rivals Roma, but only four points ahead of Milan. Fiorentina is seventh but have Empoli and Palermo in their sights even though the gap is five points.
Two teams who have spent the week moving players in and out clash in MLS. Houston Dynamo moved defender Kevin Goldthwaite to Toronto for midfielder Richard Mulrooney, while the New York Red Bulls also sent defensive help – and they desperately need it – to Toronto in the shape of speedy full-back Marvell Wynne.
However, the most interesting move was the acquisition of 31-year-old Colombian striker Juan Pablo Angel by the New York Red Bulls from Aston Villa. The frantic pace of the Premiership never suited Angel’s style but I reckon he’s got a good few goals left in him and he will turn out to be a very astute signing. The Colombian’s debut depends upon how quickly a work permit can be acquired.
In the Premiership Manchester United - unbeaten in the last 14 one games – await the visit of Middlesbrough who are winless in their last five away games. In fact, Middlesbrough have only one away win all season and only two teams have collected fewer away points. However, Boro appear to enjoy the Old Trafford stage and have a very respectable record. Since 2002 Boro only lost once in five Premiership visits to Manchester United while winning twice and drawing the other two games.
Coincidently a similar dynamic appears to be at play when Newcastle plays Chelsea at St James’ Park. Newcastle goes into this game have won only once in their last seven Premiership games. Chelsea on the other hand have won their last nine. But, Newcastle have won three and drawn the other when Chelsea have come calling in the last four seasons. The Magpies also enjoy the sixth best record in the league against top half teams, while they sit only 18th against teams occupying positions eleven through twenty. The better the opposition the better Newcastle seem to play.
Tottenham Hotspur manager Martin Jol said this week that his team needs to win four of the remaining five games in order to secure a UEFA spot for next season. Step one would appear to be beating Arsenal in the early game on Saturday. This is something that Spurs have failed to do in their last 17 league and cup matches against their North London neighbours. Six more points for Arsenal will guarantee them at least fourth place and entry into the Champions League pre-qualifying round 2. These two teams have shared the points in five of the last six premiership games that White Hart Lane. What chance of six out of seven?
At the bottom of the Premiership Charlton and Sheffield United is a game that everyone will be keeping an eye on. A classic six pointer, Charlton are undefeated in 11 league games against Sheffield United, but are currently two points behind the Yorkshire club with the same number of games played.
Sheffield United have lost more away games in the Premiership than any other team and have not even scored on the road since in early February. On the other hand Charlton are unbeaten in their last four home games and have kept clean sheets in each of then.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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