BobbyMcMahon's Blog
by: BobbyMcMahon
Weekend Preview
Mar 20, 2008 | 8:17PM | report this

Manchester United old boys.

Problems over broadcasting rights and rules in Italy.

The Times feature on Fulham’s away form.  St. James’ Park is about the only ground Fulham doesn’t mind traveling to. They have a split record of 2 wins, draws and losses in the Premiership and their two wins and one of the draws have come on their last three visits. Conversely Newcastle’s last win in the Premiership came over three months ago and it needed a late penalty kick to give Newcastle a 1-0 win over who else but Fulham.


Premiership
This weekend’s Premiership fixture list has ten matches all of which have the potential to substantially change the race for the title, the scramble for Champions League/UEFA Cup spots, or the battle to avoid the dreaded drop.

There are numerous possibilities and of course one of which is that nothing very much will change. Even so it’s interesting to take a look at the various views of how things will work out with eight rounds of play to go.

The conventional wisdom in the media and on the chatboards seems to be that with a three point lead and a substantially better goal difference the league title is for Manchester United to lose. Arsenal’s four consecutive draws has put a dagger through the heart of their title aspirations while Chelsea could yet to slip in to win the Championship for the third time in four seasons.

Liverpool are the form team (and the team to fear in the Champions League) and will lock up the fourth Champions League spot. That will leave Everton with fifth and what may be the last remaining UEFA Cup place for next season. Aston Villa, Portsmouth (still have a very real interest in the FA Cup), Manchester City and Blackburn will be left on the outside looking in.  


BBC pundit Alan Hansen seems to support the conventional view as far as the top four are concerned. Hansen states “if United beat Liverpool and Arsenal lose at Chelsea, Wenger can wave the title bye-bye in my opinion”. Early on in the article he says, “…..while Arsenal go to Stamford Bridge to play a Chelsea side who cannot yet be discounted when it comes to the title.”

When you consider that going into this weekend Arsenal trails United by three points and in turn leads Chelsea by two points then should United and Chelsea win then the gap between first and second will become five points with Arsenal a further point behind. However, that single point would seem to be enough for Hansen to dismiss Arsenal’s chances (whle five points is not too much for Chelsea to make up) even though Manchester United have to still play the Gunners and have to travel to Stamford Bridge.

At the other end of the Premiership Wigan’s current run of form finds them on 31 points along with Boro. Although both teams still fall within the group still under threat of relegation these two teams haven’t featured in too many relegation picks lately. The subject of Newcastle is polarizing with fans and pundits clearly falling quickly into the “stay-up” or “relegated” camps – no indecision on that one.

Depending on how you feel about Newcastle they either join the group of Reading, Birmingham, Sunderland, Bolton and Fulham that are trying to avoid the two other relegations spots or not. Bolton’s chances of safety are often dismissed based on a supposedly tougher schedule while in North America Fulham seem to a lot of peoples pick for a “miracle” run to seventeenth spot or even higher. Perhaps a case of heart dominating the brain.

So if that is a recap of the conventional wisdom what are the UK bookies saying? As bookies odd are set based on money bet it should align closely with punters current opinion. At the wrong end of the league the bookies are no longer taking bets on Derby’s fate while not giving Fulham (2/5) much of a chance of survival and they reckon Bolton (5/6) are going to join them.

If either of these two teams does turn their “fate” around then Sunderland are the next pick to go down (2/1), with Reading and Birmingham (7/2) coming next. Jeremy St. Louis could make some money by choosing Newcastle at 4/1. Wigan (8/1) and Boro at 12/1 are definite outsiders.  

At the other end the bookies are saying that the finish will be Manchester United 1/3, Arsenal 4/1, Chelsea 5/1 and Liverpool 120/1 with a United, Arsenal and Chelsea the favoured 1-2-3 finish. Before the midweek draw with Tottenham Chelsea were the bookies favourite to finish as runners-up.

Around Europe
There are some great games around the rest of Europe as well. In Italy the two stand out games are Fiorentina vs. Lazio and the derby that isn’t a derby, Inter against Juventus. Spain has Sevilla against Atletico Madrid and if the game is half as interesting as their first match-up this season (a 4-3 win for Atletico) then it should be worth catching.


Meanwhile, Real Madrid probably can’t believe that after dropping nine points in their last five matches that they still lead second place Barcelona by seven points. For all the ups-and-downs we have seen in La Liga this season the fact is that since Real left the Nou Camp with a 1-0 win two days before Christmas the top three teams (Real Madrid, Barcelona and Villarreal) have all collected twenty-one points from a possible thirty-nine. This weekend Valencia provides the opposition for Real and will be buoyed after beating Barcelona in Thursday’s Copa del Rey semi-final.

The Bundesliga has a top versus third match-up with Bayern Munich facing a surging Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern remains unbeaten at home although their points total is reflective of five draws in eleven home games. On the other hand Leverkusen have not won at Bayern in 19 years, and have only won twice in twenty-eight visits.

I will be on World Soccer Daily at around 1:15 p.m. EST tomorrow (Friday).  

87 Comments | Add a comment   categories: Manchester United, Newcastle United, Fulham, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Everton, Sunderland, Bolton, Derby County, Birmingham, Reading, Aston Villa, Portsmouth, Manchester City, Sevilla, Atletico Madrid, Real Madrid, Valencia, Inter Milan
 
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craigy_f
Mar 20, 2008
8:56 PM
BOBBY
Could you elaborate on why you pick Fiorentina V Lazio?

HANSEN
Wouldn’t really know how to spell “conventional view” In the latest installment of his ‘expertize” he was talkng to McNulty. And the pair of them selected the appropriate cliches from the approved list, cobbled them together in some sort of order, had one of the BBC typists post it to the webpage and had tea and cakes in the BBC Canteen and congratulated themselves for another torpid pile of drivel paid for (including expenses) by British Taxpayer. Perhaps he should check the run ins for the teams he cliched and also count the number of available points.

CAPELLO
NO!
‘SCUSE ME BUT NO!
IF THE GENDARMES WILL LET ME I’LL BE THE BLOKE IN THE FRENCH END WITH THE “CAPELLO OUT!” BANNER
OR MAYBE
“quatre-vingt-dix neuf et se cassent de nouveau à Los Angeles”

BLUESTUFF
Some of our ex players go onto become World Champions and other joins Southampton?

COLE
How nice. An apology. Probably got an earful from one of the Pensioners.

INCEY
Will a bigger club make a move for him even if Wimbledon get promoted?

JAY
I’m not particuarly having a go at the broadcasters over here (although some are pants) You will see more Man U on TV than any other team.
Wouldn’t it be nice if FSC tried something different and talked about a game without highlights. People do that in the pub and on the phone all over the world.

PENALTIES - URSUS
The recent flurry on penalties came to mind when watching Honduras beat Guatemala 6-5.
The penalty takers used a variety of tactics (for both sides) the ‘k

craigy_f
Mar 20, 2008
8:58 PM
CONT...

‘keepers used pretty much the same tactic.
In the seven kicks faced the Honduran ‘keeper moved the same way all but one time and the Guatemalan ‘keeper used the same tactic (moving forward first) in all but one attempt. Only the Honduran ‘keeper made a save. Both keeper’s consistently moved before the ball was struck.
So Ursus, how do those tactics stack up with the stuff you researched the other day?

STEVIEGYT
Three things to note about Italian refereeing this season.
1) Flair players win free kicks (in the same way that Arteta does for EFC)
2) More referees seem keen to let the game flow
3) Italian refereeing is going through a rebirth, many new refs and a new(ish) head ref in Colina.
All this may lead to more or less cards; I don’t know; you are correct about the diving.

ALDORAY
GF 61 GF (RONALDO) 24 – someone must have scored the other 37.

PERFECT PINT
I can think of a couple of dozen more perfect than Guiness (more if it’s the pish that’s not made from Liffey water)
I certainly see and kinda agree with one of your points. Although I have never picked one NFL franchise to support despite being introduced to the sport through the Bears in their last winning season.
I do have a soft spot for Roma but wouldn’t call myself a supporter.
Living vicariously through the team you support would be really sad. A sure sign to get a life and rejoin the real world. I can understand a degree of emotional attachment; that’s about all.

Media focus on the few comes at the expense of an appreciation of the whole rich tapestry. Rea

craigy_f
Mar 20, 2008
8:59 PM
CONT...

Read many publications or blogs and you may think there are only five or six games on any given weekend instead of the hundreds. It’s nice to focus on one aspect but you need to step back and get a little perspective every now and again.

AG
Now that warmed the cockles of my English heart. Would he know if you swapped it with a West Ham shirt?
I don’t begrudge ‘newbie supporters’ their choice of clubs. It would be a tad dull if everybody followed their dad into football supportership. A work colleague followed a team based on who was better looking. He had Spurs Toon and Everton. The rest of the league isn’t merely there to make a few clubs look good; as the media might have one think.
Just focusing on a few clubs almost all of the time misses the point. Really lazy and unimaginative too.
How many games were better on the weekend that Liverpool and Chelsea tried to bore each other to death?

“Tough, damn tough” is that a line from “Greg Proops does 007”?

I’m a newbie MLS fan and saw clubs based initially on geography. It would have been remiss of me not explore the rest of the League (even some NCAA football) just because some group of ESPN id-iots seemed to think I was only interested in LA or NE.

Tell me how I would pick a NHL team to follow?

SUPER SUNDAY MY ARSE
How the fudge can it be SUPER SUNDAY without any SERIE A.


KYLE’S MOM COULDN’T ACTUALLY KILL CANADA
So she settled for the U23s Not Going To Bejing, the Bit_ch.
Adu’s free kick was a bit of a scorcher!

craigy_f
Mar 20, 2008
9:03 PM
KEANO V INCY (AG)
Now that would be a Celebrity DeathMatch!
One other reason Incey is stuck with MKDons and Keano is a black cat is Nial Quinn. So perhaps the difference maker is who you know and not what colour you are.

flashman
Mar 20, 2008
9:29 PM
craigy: As I mentioned earlier, the relegation battles skedded for Saturday - Newcastle-Fulham & Birmingham-Reading - are much more likely to produce entertaining games than Sunday's overblown doubleheader.

And why are Fulham so popular in many opinions? The sheer charisma of Jimmy Bullard. He was amazing when he played for Wigan, endless, dogged running, wrists bent at inward at a wierd angle, great instincts about where the ball was headed, whether attacking or defending. Now he's scoring great goals for Fulham.

If we were offered the same viewing package that NASCAR fans get, and could dial in exclusive camera shots of one specific driver/player, the BullardCam would always be good value. Plus tips on how to take a swapped Steven Gerrard jersey and make fly fishing lures from it.

Nice try by Canada, good players, coach with prospects, but victims to, not only a really good US squad with talent front to back, but a Canadian soccer program that is lurching from one crisis to another. It isn't respected by any one any more, hence top players like David Edgar at Newcastle can't - don't want to? - get releases from their clubs. Could be worse. Could be a Mexican fan. JUMP, HUGO, you smug barsteward.

Last edited by flashman on March 20th at 9:32 PM.

atleti
Mar 20, 2008
10:05 PM
I nearly died during Atleti's 4-3 home win against Sevilla. What a highly entertaining yet absolutely retarded game that was!

Ursusarctos
Mar 20, 2008
11:46 PM
albertagooner:

"As for being the best punter around, I wouldn't make that claim even if Arsenal does win the league and I collect $1,200."

Of course not. You'd be grateful for your good luck- first in getting such great odds, and then in actually collecting on them- before moving on, as I would in similar circumstances.

As you might guess, I couldn't resist a shot at the cherished belief of one of my confreres that "luck" does not exist ... and so your win- should it occur- MUST of course be due to your vastly superior punting ability. Sorry to drag you into it.

"Collecting on that bet will mean making a trip to north London to take in a game in August with my son."

Sounds great. For his sake, I hope you win it.

Ah, damn it, who am I kidding? IF the PL title should come down to a choice between Arsenal and United, as a Red I'd take Arsenal every day of the year and twice on Sundays ... anything but United, even if a Chelsea title would result in Grant looking like an undertaker at the scene of a natural disaster ...

If Chelsea can't do it, you'd !@#$%^& better collect on that bet, AG!

Ursusarctos
Mar 20, 2008
11:58 PM
LGB:

"Luck does not exist. Just because humans aren't perfect and aren't robots doesn't mean that since we can't put a game into a mathematical algorythmn, that luck makes up for the odd instances."

If luck doesn't account for the unpredictability in football, then what does?

"I'm sure the Newcastle defenders didn't intend Liverpool to score any goals so I guess we were lucky to have three then."

Poor try at avoiding the issue. The second and third goals resulted from intentional scoring-attempts by LFC players. The first did not. Where did that one come from if not luck, LGB?

"Luck doesn't exist. It doesn't matter how much waffle you want to put in there, it still doesn't make it exist."

No matter how desperately you deny it, luck will continue to impact your life every day, and will have a hand in every football match you watch.

But don't take my word for it- are you prepared to challenge your comfortable (comforting?) beliefs?

I've already recommended a book- Fooled by Randomness- that was not only hailed by the likes of Fortune magazine and the Financial Times, but is surprisingly entertaining to read (while conveying very sophisticated ideas). The subtitle: "The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" sums it up- but if not that, I can recommend other sources.

Much like that study of statistics I've urged you to undertake, understanding chance could only improve the credibility of your easy assertions.

RINGO
Mar 21, 2008
3:06 AM
Nothing will be decided on Grand Slam Super Duper Sunday ,unless both Man Utd and Arsenal win.
In which case Chelsea will be out of it.
Any other combination of results and it's still a three horse race.

I'll settle for three hours of the most boring football you've ever seen with just one goal scored ,and that an own goal going in off Eboue's arse.

This is the weekend when Keegan gets his first win and Derby get their first away win.

I think it's time Ronaldo's free-kick technique was outlawed ,just like Ernie Hunt's donkey kick was made illegal.

Last edited by RINGO on March 21st at 3:11 AM.

craigy_f
Mar 21, 2008
4:24 AM
LUCK
Something to explain the world for those that don't understand it.

FLASHY
SKY does Player cams - watching the defenders whilst their team is up the other end of the park can be quite amusing - you know the odd nose picker or 'pretty vacant' moment.
Table top to bottom in the PL is far from over yet. Bar Derby's relegation.

RINGO
Orange and black get it on at RFK in June.

redfan2000
Mar 21, 2008
8:10 AM
I have never been able to read much of what Hansen has written since he dropped out of the game for the bs life he now leads. I agree Craigy, neither Beeb artical is worth the paper it is printed on nor the webspace it occupies.
If he would have tried management and given the LFC boot room a shot, perhaps the nineties at Anfield could have had a slightly different outcome. At least he could have look back and say he tried.
I agree too with Bobby and Ringo, that nothing much will decided at the top this weekend even if Utd and Arsenal both win.
If Liverpool do win at OT then all that does is help us stay 4th and give us our 8th straight win.
So much has changed in the last 4 or 5 games that a further meltdown cannot be ruled out. As Bobby and others have noted, too many draws in Liverpool's results have cost them. I wonder, after Arsenal's run of 4 draws, how that stat will stack come seasons end?

I am looking forward to the saturday battles more than Sunday's double header. I think Newcastle will beat Fulham and it could be the turning point for them. Fulham I think are doomed and should be putting on their parachutes. I think AL Fayed will sell up if they go down.
Craigy, if you want to support an NHL team find the nearest one! My 10 yr old is a Flames fan while I go eastwards and keep a lazy eye on the Habs and Sens. We are with out a franchise since the Jets left and so half way between.

Have a nice weekend peeps and if Easter has meaning for yous then enjoy, however you do it!

Last edited by redfan2000 on March 21st at 8:12 AM.

Mags4Me
Mar 21, 2008
8:31 AM
Okay lads; Today’s Daily Mail poll; The dirtiest player in Premier League History.
Who would have thunk!! There are a few “characters’ missing from the field.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/li
ve/articles/pollsanddebates/pollsan
ddebates.html?in_page_id=2006

Oh… and Capello is in a demanding mood!! That should sort it out then.

Big day tomorrow; Bullard and a recovered McBride come to Toon.

Supper Dupper Sunday prediction; Draw, draw!!

BTW: Perfect Pint. Guinness is good if the bar has the correct pipes and a barman who knows how to pull the tap. But…a Theakston’s, Samuel Smith’s Nut Brown Ale or Belhaven Wee Heavy are top contenders.

BobbyMcMahon
Mar 21, 2008
8:44 AM
Craigy_f - Fiorentina vs. Lazio - I enjoy watching Fiorentina, they have third/fourth place to fight for with Milan, Sampdoria and maybe even Udinese still within touching distance. Lazio have turned things around in the last few games (unbeaten in five) and are one of the current form teams in Serie A. It is now a ten point gap with the last relegation spot and Lazio appear to have rediscovered the road to the oppositions goal over the last few games. All in all a recipe for a good match.

ZUCO2
Mar 21, 2008
9:03 AM
Bobby, is it me or is there a higher amount of own goals scored in football, nowadays?

Oh, I agree Fiorentina is a very good team. they might even win the UEFA cup, this year.

JayAlves
Mar 21, 2008
9:36 AM
Its August 2016. Gillette still owns Liverpool. He has offered me a contract to manage the team. I look at the roster. Messi, Torres, Fabregas, and Bojan. The new stadium sits 76k. Only in FM2008 back to reality.

Speaking of the Pool props to Benetiz. It might not be realistic but at least hes ramped up the #### talking to create some drama. I WOULD not (edit) ROTATE RONALDO! ITS ON! I KNOW YOUR GAME! hes taking a page out of the special ones book and really getting into the mindgames now fun stuff!

Last edited by JayAlves on March 21st at 10:33 AM.

JayAlves
Mar 21, 2008
10:08 AM
http://www.worldsoccerdaily.com/>
Bobby is on today!

!!! March Madness is on!!!!

and I have a sandwich. What a great good friday!

albertagooner
Mar 21, 2008
11:06 AM
craigy,

I suppose he could have been a Hammer had he happened to see them first, lol. I have several different Arsenal replicas from over the years so he's learned to look for the club crest. Ashley Young is his favourite player.

I agree with you on the narrow media focus and I think the Internet and specialty channels such as Fox Soccer and Setanta have really made the sport more accessible for kids and newer supporters. The kids of my team will trade YouTube clips with each other and then to try repeat the feats of Ronaldo, Gerrard, Kaka et al. I think that's a great thing.

As for the NHL, I'd only suggest enjoying the game. If there's a team you get to see more than others, you'll probably develop an affection for them.

Keano versus Incey would have been (and might still be) a good scrap. And I don't begrudge Keano his chance with the Black Cats -- he's a great player and a very promising manager.

Congratulations to the USA -- I watched the Olympic qualifier and we were badly outplayed. Adu is growing into his own.

albertagooner
Mar 21, 2008
11:09 AM
danielgregg,

Thanks for the background on how you came to be a gooner!

ursusarctos,

Whether or not I win, we're going in 2009 to take in games at the Emirates and Villa Park in August. It's going to be a fantastic trip.

RINGO
Mar 21, 2008
11:13 AM
Who's this McMahon geezer on WSD?
That bloke doesn't know what he's talking about!

redfan2000
Mar 21, 2008
11:53 AM
AG, does your boy remind/chide you that Villa won the European Cup?

Jay, OK you got the sandwich but what about the rest of the picnic?

Re the dirtiest player in BPL history, what about #### at West Ham and Neill at Blackburn?

Flashman, we can get a few things from the UK in cans or bottles here (sadly not good commentators lol) so I treat myself to the odd Marstons Pedigree. O'Connors bar in the city here purports to sell Guinness, but they don't keep it or serve it well. Only the imported cans and bottles are any good. I also get the odd Oyster Stout and now Winnipeg has its' own Half Pint Brewery, which is producing phenomenal heavies and stouts in the English style.

Last edited by redfan2000 on March 21st at 11:54 AM.

henry14
Mar 21, 2008
12:49 PM
my predictions

manutd 1 liverpool 2

chelsea 3 arseanl 0

atleti
Mar 21, 2008
12:51 PM
I don't care much for Guinness. Last weekend I had a choice between that and a Newcastle Brown at a local place and chose the Newcastle.

I don't drink much beer, but I've been trying out quite a bit of Belgian ones recently: Duvel, La Chouffe, Brigand, Chimay, & Grimbergen.

ZUCO2
Mar 21, 2008
1:00 PM
United is gonna be Liverpool easily 2-0 or 2-1 while Arsenal will have to settle for a draw with Chelsea.

JayAlves
Mar 21, 2008
1:03 PM
2-2 Pool ManYooooooo

2-0! ARSENAL! the original. Theeee Togonator gets back on the score sheet even tho it might be the 2nd on the counter!

atleti
Mar 21, 2008
1:14 PM
My Predictions

Utd 1 Liverpool 0

Chelsea 0 Arsenal 0

atleti
Mar 21, 2008
1:15 PM
And...

Sevilla 2 Atleti 3

foxcube
Mar 21, 2008
1:59 PM
ManU 1 Pool 0
Chelsea 0 Arsenal 1
Fiorentina 2 Lazio 1
Inter 1 Juventus 1

foxcube
Mar 21, 2008
2:01 PM
Bobby's:
ManU 2 Pool 2
Chelsea 1 Arsenal 2
Inter 2 Juve 1

ZUCO2
Mar 21, 2008
2:05 PM
I am looking forward to the Inter game, it should be dandy.

Let's hope Juve doesn't screw up their chances!

ZUCO2
Mar 21, 2008
2:06 PM
Oh yeah, I forgot.

My prediction :

Inter 1-2 Juventus

RINGO
Mar 21, 2008
2:11 PM
...and in a sign of things to come?

The Chelsea youth team ,with eleven changes from the team which reached the FA Youth cup final just forty hours earlier ,defeated Arsenal 1-0 in a game played at Cobham this morning.

mamey86
Mar 21, 2008
2:29 PM
Do you think that Hugo Sanchez is the right for coach of the Mexico national team or is it time for a change?

Ursusarctos
Mar 21, 2008
2:52 PM
craigy:

"LUCK
Something to explain the world for those that don't understand it.
"

A true child of the Enlightenment- who would have expected it from you?!


craigy:

"PENALTIES - URSUS
The recent flurry on penalties came to mind when watching Honduras beat Guatemala 6-5.
The penalty takers used a variety of tactics (for both sides) the ‘keepers used pretty much the same tactic.
In the seven kicks faced the Honduran ‘keeper moved the same way all but one time and the Guatemalan ‘keeper used the same tactic (moving forward first) in all but one attempt. Only the Honduran ‘keeper made a save. Both keeper’s consistently moved before the ball was struck.
So Ursus, how do those tactics stack up with the stuff you researched the other day?
"

I didn't see the match, so I assume that when you say there was only "a save" out of seven kicks, you mean that the other six attempts scored- one save when the other six attempts were put into the stands would be a quite different sampling problem ...!

continued ...

Last edited by Ursusarctos on March 21st at 2:55 PM.

Ursusarctos
Mar 21, 2008
2:53 PM
... continued

The issue faced by both keeper and PK taker comes straight from Game Theory- it is a specific example of what is called a "Nash equilibrium", where each player decides on their optimal solution by (simultaneously) taking into account their perception of their opponent's optimal decision. Thus the "equilibrium", since any unilateral change in strategy by a player will tend to produce a sub-optimal result (i.e., not the maximizing result for the PK taker- goal- or the minimizing result for the keeper- no goal).

There was a non-technical summary of the issue in Slate magazine a while ago: "World Cup Game Theory: What Economics Tells Us About Penalty Kicks." The article is by English economist Tim Harford, who has written several books popularizing the application of economic theory to everyday problems.

The original of the Palacios-Huerta paper that Harford cites: "Professionals Play Minimax".

Another reference: "Testing Mixed-Strategy Equilibria When Players Are Heterogeneous: The Case of Penalty Kicks in Soccer" (one of the authors is Steven Levitt, who co-wrote Freakonomics).

If your economics/ stats are up to it, both papers are worth reading.

Last edited by Ursusarctos on March 21st at 2:56 PM.

craigy_f
Mar 21, 2008
5:42 PM
THANK CRUNCHIE IT'S FRIDAY!

HANSEN (RF)
Apparently it's something to do with the size of some Scottish Stones.

URSUS
Dunno about enlightenment, I'm merely a child of the womb.

LUCK and it's existence is a purely semantic issue.
Two people will look at the same set of circumstances and one may attribute the outcome to luck and the other to action a, action b, action c...
Luck would more likely to be attributed as a cause (good or bad) when the circumstances leading up to an event are diverse, unanticipated, oblique, minutae or just too boring and time consuming too accurately disect.

Luck is often attributed to a set of circumstances beyond a person's control.

AG's bet:- if he wins some would attribute luck. If he had the mind he could track back to that day and list a fair number of the circumstances that led to his placing the bet. None of which would be luck.

To paint a much broader picture Luck and Love are identical. Two methods of describing very hard to track circumstances which lead to an event.
Love is a wonderful thing and luck is for suckers.

I'll take you up on your Game Theory stuff. Print it out for the plane. Now that Concorde is no longer an option it's 9-10 hours. Thank **** for air miles.

As to what the Honduras V Guatemala game showed - both keepers (admittedly in a small sample) overwhelmingly choose the same tactic regardless of who was taking the penalty.

6-5 with 14 pks taken would equal but three failed attempts - in this case one save and two poor kicks.

BEER
OMG - love it! MAGS in the U

craigy_f
Mar 21, 2008
5:44 PM
CONT...

K some pubs do nothing but Samuel Smiths beverages, brilliant.
Bass is a sublime pint but needs careful cellaring and lots of tlc otherwise it's awful.
Boddingtons becomes awful about 30 miles from Manchester.
Guiness anywhere but Ireland is just some average Stout.
Theakstons! MMM!
It took a while but I've found quite a few US brews which hit the spot.
Tonight I will be drinking DOGFISH Head 60 Minute IPA

WINE
OMG! Anything European from 2004 is brilliant - hot summer small yeild intense flavours. Also try anything from Western Australia.

WHISKY
Tonight I will be drinking CAOL ILA (18yo). An Islay single Malt.

BOBBY
La Viola have occupied a ROMANIAN GOD OF GOALS shaped void quite well. On paper the game against Lazio looks to be the best of the bunch, it probably will be barring a suprise corker in one of the other games.
The 433 they play is an attractive and effective formation and in Prandelli they have a good manager who would likely be somewhere else barring his family issues.
And who doesn't like Purple!

NHL
Thanks but no thanks! Just wondered how one would go about getting into it.

AG / ADU
Seems that a spell away from the limelight and (more than likley) a step up in coaching and better opposition is doing wonders for the lad. He's also gelling well with Altidore.
One wonders what Bradely had made (and will make) of the progress the U23s have made and the impact they will make in Bejing.
Does he feel any antipathy towards Birmingham City FC?
Of course, not Freddy, your son

redfan2000
Mar 21, 2008
6:24 PM
Luck: when the blind lead the blind and neither founder.
or: When the wife drives and we get there.....oh and on time too.

or: despite daily warnings and copious reprimands the kids till have not killed, injured or otherwise maimed one another.

or: the possibility of getting through Sunday without SAF or Whinger moaning about something.
Otherwise, I do not do dice or cards as I am not lucky in either. But in love? mm mmmm

Fishing will start soon and with the summer comes a raft of renos so I can sell and move.

Good weekend peeps

Last edited by redfan2000 on March 21st at 6:35 PM.

craigy_f
Mar 21, 2008
9:41 PM
SUPER SUNDAY AND THE PREMIERSHIP
HUGE – was much in evidence in the Winnipeg studios. No mention of the fact that you aren’t carrying the game from Old Trafford?
Perhaps you blokes should consult a calendar to see which is the first day of the weekend.
Perhaps a review of Premierleague.com or football-league.co.uk is in order; at the very least to refresh yourselves on the correct naming protocols.
When bloke A is talking blokes B & C adopt a quite unusual and frightening facial expression. Can you please elaborate?

BOBBY
I liked your MUFC/LFC observations. The CFC/AFC observations ommitted the relationship Spurs and Chelsea have. Your comments would have carried more weight if Chelsea had drawn 4-4 with Villa or Wigan or City.
Interesting commentary on the Inter Juve game.
Nice tie, wrong knot.

FISHING (RF)
A boat, some beer, some rods, some mates and the ocean and a free weekend.
You forgot a third moaning manager there matey boy.
Are you Mister Convivial or what? For me it’s the imminent holiday and Man’s incredible abilty to produce the divine from mere plants, water and heat – what about you?

MISL
What has happened to the, “No balls above head height rule”.

redfan2000
Mar 22, 2008
8:14 AM
Craigy

Balls above head height rule? In a continent where soccer is run more like Hockey than the beautiful game of football, do not be surprised. After all in this hedonistic world what more could you want?


As for fishing? 8 weeks to go yet but I am dreaming. No ocean here less you count lake Winnipeg, which is like a small inland sea. Come June and July I shall be in shorts, sunglassess and up to my waist in the lake, bathed in hot sun, fishing for channel catfish up to 4ft long. Yes beers on the side and the voice of the wind, a few pelicans all mixed up with messing about with the kids on the beach.

Until then the BPL has my attention. Yes Grant will whine if his Blues lose but he will not get another season. Rafa is a gent. As for undertakings, Grant and Moysey could well go into business together eh. How about "Blue Dreams Undertakings"?

Single malt is superb but no one to share it with here so it has been a while since I indulged. Last time over the pond I found some Calvados, which I love and which has been my only sip.

Bobby said Arsenal to win and the other lot to draw. I have no feeling about the games this morning. We shall see. Enjoy your tipple craig.

albertagooner
Mar 22, 2008
8:27 AM
redfan,

He was more shocked, then proud, when I told him about Villa's history and superior European pedigree to Arsenal.

craigy

The long odds against Arsenal was the driving factor. I don't think I'd seen that kind of price on Arsenal in a long time and I figured it was down to the pundits dismissing them after Henry's departure. I didn't think I'd win. I'm prouder of the bet I made with a workplace colleague back in November that Obama and McCain would secure their respective party nominations. That dinner is going to taste especially good as I was roundly mocked at the time. They stopped laughing after the Iowa caucuses.

Adu was very impressive up here in the world U-20s, too. I think he'll develop into a very good player. Altidore looks pretty damn impressive, too. I haven't seen Bradley play enough to comment on him but the numbers look pretty impressive.

Of the young Canadian players, only de Guzman and Edgar look pretty good. Everybody else looks like honest, hard-working lower Championship/First Division level.

And no, Robert hasn't learned to hate the Blues yet. I'm sure he'll learn about that when we visit Brum so I won't ruin the surprise!

JayAlves
Mar 22, 2008
10:13 AM
Sigh Newcastle had to go off and win and put a dent into that fun drama down the stretch.

LetsGoBuffalo
Mar 22, 2008
11:48 AM
Alberta-I can maybe see you being laughed at because of Obama(although being laughed at is like saying he didn't have a chance and thats just ridiculous) but McCain?

I'm a Republican, I didn't vote for him in the primary but there was not a doubt that he would get the nomination.

I hope you do enjoy that dinner.

As for early season predictions, I'll wait till the season is out before I declare myself a success. I think most saw that Arsenal were going to be very good this term. I just don't think most saw they would be good in all competitions AND continue to win through all the injuries.

atleti
Mar 22, 2008
12:01 PM
VAMOS ATLETI!!!

atleti
Mar 22, 2008
12:02 PM
A Republican? GET HIM!

redfan2000
Mar 22, 2008
1:52 PM
Atleti, you never did strike me as a liberal? Well we live and learn.

West 'am did their stuff and almost completely.
Flash how does it feel? I was a tad puzzled by the substitution of Martins over Viduka. After the first goal Viduka's first touch was attrocious. KK obviously thought differently and you can enjoy the three points, which leaves just 8 needed to hit the amgic 40. Bobby is convinced that it will be more like 36 but if everyone keeps winning it will tight for those clubs in the 30's. You must feel better?

AG you have got to give the boy the club history for his birthday. I bought it all back from the UK in the fall for my son and he got lots of LFC stuff from UK family for Christmas.

Oh well this time tomorrow we shall know all re the big match day, whch I suspect will peter out with a whimper.

I wonder who will have the better day Ronny or El Nino?

Last edited by redfan2000 on March 22nd at 1:54 PM.

verbal97
Mar 22, 2008
2:43 PM
a republican? That actually explains quite a bit...hehehe

ZUCO2
Mar 22, 2008
3:20 PM
Great win for Juve, today. They completely outclassed Inter.

The title race in the Serie A is officially open!!!!!!!

atleti
Mar 22, 2008
3:29 PM
I'm apolitical, actually, RF!

1-2 so far!

PUT-O SEVILLAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

atleti
Mar 22, 2008
3:35 PM
Dreadful refereeing, overall.

atleti
Mar 22, 2008
4:00 PM
Full-time: 1-2!
UGLY game, but massive win for Atleti.

Sevilla = las putillas cerdillistas!

Aupa Atleti!

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ABOUT ME


BobbyMcMahon
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites. Thank you to all who take time to visit this blog and especially to those of you who post your comments and thoughts. PS - If you have questions please post them on the regular Monday blog. I am unable to answer e mails posted to the inbox on this site. And one more thing. If you have questions or complaints or compliments about programming please contact Fox Soccer Channel or Fox Sports World Canada directly. I have no control over what the stations televise.
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