Ulsterson -I know you have been an ardent critic of the Glazers financial model used in the purchase United. As a United fan but not much of an economist I have tried, with marginal success, to follow your analysis and critique. I understand the concept of "bad debt" you have been warning against but I still don't see the upside, financially, for the Glazers if they don't keep the team competitive.
You have, since not long after or perhaps even before the takeover, come just short of predicting financial ruin leading to on field failure as resources for talent dwindle. As obviously smart business men, I cannot see the Glazers allowing the Team/product to suffer because of their financial scheme. Further, the purchases of late would indicate they do realize the necessity for success on the pitch for there to be success at the bank.
There is no question that their involvement in United is not based on a love of the team or even the sport itself and the debt situation does look dire on paper but could you please further explain any possible hustle we should be leery of? If you could, a "for example" of a possible scenario, in which they could make money at the expense of the team’s quality. Or, is it just a very risky gamble?
Bobby – You are right the Glazers have to keep the team competitive because the issue for them (at the moment) is a revenue shortfall rather than an expense problem. They bought the team believing that they could generate more and new revenue streams. The increase in revenue would then be used to pay down the large debt load.
The problem is where does the revenue come from and is it realistic to think it can be amount to the $100m or so in annual payments needed to pay the interest on the debt? Generally the revenue sources available to United fall into the following categories; ticket sales and hospitality, television and prize revenue domestic, television and prize revenue Europe, merchandising and sponsorship.
If you look back to when the Glazers borrowed to take the club over (it is more accurate description than bought the club) it would be fair to say that none of these revenue sources have dwindled and most have in fact increased. Prices and capacity have increased at Old Trafford; TV and prize money for the EPL up; Champions League is still producing; there was word that they got more for the AIG logo on the jersey than from the previous sponsor.
But even then they renegotiated the debt and reduced the interest payment at a cost of a longer term repayment schedule. Think in terms of your mortgage – it’s the kind of thing you do when you find that the monthly budget can’t be stretched far enough.
So the plan/hope is that the team can continue to be successful (and tap into an ever increasing pool of Premiership and CL money) but that is a risky assumption on two levels and in terms of continued succeess one that Leeds made. (Although in the case of Leeds they had nothing else to fall back on. Leeds also got caught with assets/players bought at inflated prices whose value then plummeted as the impact of the Bosman ruling took affect.)
Ticket prices will continue to be a place that the Glazers will feel they can generate much more money – Carling Cup this season as a prime example – because the stadium is playing to capacity. Demand high – a chance to raise prices.
The tricky part kicks in when the revenue increases don’t meet the money needed to pay the interest on the debt. It is at that point that the temptation might be to cut costs and pray that the product isn’t impacted. To date there has been money spent on players but it seems doubtful that it has been anything close to the numbers that have been widely reported. The deals for Anderson and Nani seem to have been done with relatively low initial payments with more to follow if certain targets are hit. The Hargreaves transfer involved more money up front but the same concept.
The other risk is Ferguson and who takes over from him. The Glazer deal is structured around a timeline that far exceeds the number of years that Fergie has left. He may think he can go on forever but he is 66 at the end of December and the day will come. The likelihood of a seamless succession appears to me to be a hope rather than the certainty that the Glazers need.
When you add up the finances, the risks inherent in what appears to be the Glazers assumptions, as well as the general uncertainty and risk that is involved in any deal, it seems to me that for this to work it needs an incredible amount of luck.
There again, they could always sell the Tampa Bay Rowdies or United for that matter. There would be no shortage of buyers for either team. If United was to be sold then the fans should be looking for a philanthropist not a businessman.
RINGO - Dundee, six points behind Hamilton (who the hell are Hamilton anyway?), and you don`t like to brag on your hometown, so here`s your chance.
Bobby – A bad loss to Hamilton a couple of weeks ago and a draw with Partick Thistle on Saturday only increased the gap at the top. Keep your eye on Hamilton Academical. They have a very aggressive youth policy under manager Billy Reid and it is beginning to pay off. You will see the bigger clubs starting to pick off some of their players next summer.
Hamilton plays Dundee United in the quarter-final of the CIS Cup on Wednesday and it will be a very interesting game. Craig Levein seems to have United cooking.
Dasayev -Interesting that on more than one occasion Jol pointed to the absence of Ledley King as a reason for Spurs' poor defense. Is there any truth in that? What is Tottenham's record with and without King over the past few seasons? How many goals do they concede per game with and without him? They also recently lost Davids, who seemed to set the tone for them when he played.
Bobby – The statistics show that Ledley King is very important to Spurs. I looked at Premiership records over the last two seasons with King in the side and without King.
In 2005/06 King played 26 matches and Spurs averaged 1.00 goal against per game. That happened to be the same as they averaged over the entire 38 game schedule. However, the points per game with King in the team were 1.846 per game and only 1.416 without him – the season average was 1.71. That means with Ledley King in the side Spurs were 30% more successful.
Last season the goals against with King in the team for 21 games were 1.29 goals against per game and points gained were 1.81. Without Ledley it was 1.59 goals per game and an average of 1.29 points gained per game. Averaged over the full schedule Spurs conceded on average 1.42 goals per game and gained 1.58 points per game.
The difference a fit King made last season – an incredible 39.8%.
Source - premiersoccerstats.com
Davids was a peripheral player for Spurs – even two seasons ago. Last season he started six games and Spurs lost 3, drew 1 and won 2. The season before he started 28 games and played in 8 or Spurs’ 9 losses. Average points with Davids starting were1.57. Average when he did not start 2.1.
Craigy f – 1. What criteria do you use to choose a game of the week? 2. Do you think Ramos can turn Spurs around between now and January? 3. What result(S) surprised you this weekend? 4. Can you give your opinion on Benitez's personnel and tactics against Arsenal on Sunday? 5. What was your goal of the weekend? 6. What was your miss of the weekend?
Bobby – 1. Whatever appeals to me.
2. It depends what you mean by turnaround. If you mean get Spurs out of the bottom three then the answer is yes. The next four games are very winnable before they hit Manchester City, Portsmouth and Arsenal. If you mean can they make a run at 5th (I think the pre-season proponents of Spurs finishing 4th would concede that such a scenario is unlikely) then they have to start averaging over 2 points a game. That is a tall order.
3. I thought Milan would bounce back against Roma and I was surprised at how Valencia rolled over against Sevilla.
4. I covered that off on the Monday show and also in the response section of the weekend preview blog.
5. Sevilla’s third by Fabiano against Valencia.
6. Solano’s second fluffed header when Cole’s shot rebounded off the Portsmouth crossbar.
JayAlves - Why does the EPL only allow 5 on the subs bench? and is it the only league to allow 5? Sure makes it annoying in FM to have such a short bench especially since one is a keeper.
Bobby – Ah interesting. I wasn’t aware that there were premier-type leagues than allowed more than five substitutes on the bench. Sorry to be ancient but I remember the days of no substitutes. The first breakthrough was a player had to be injured and you only had one sub available. If the keeper went down injured it was just part of the game.
CIAO - Was Jol really quoted saying that the defensive problems were due to King being injured? If so, I'm glad they fired him because knowing King is injury prone he could have brought in a suitable back up. The new appointment seems very promising, but I think it will be a hard year for Spurs. They will be lucky if they place 5th. I think they will be in 6th or 7th place on the last day of PL.
Bobby – See previous response that I think clearly shows that Jol had a point. You are being hard on a man who it certainly appears did not control who was signed and who was not signed.
Weah11 - How do you pick the articles you put up on the blog?
Bobby – A combination of factors. Articles that I think are good reads; pieces that are maybe counterintuitive; articles that might be a bit unusual; and James Lawton columns to upset Craigy f. I try to avoid player interviews as a general rule.
Sleeper000 - I was curious as to what you think about the current Eduardo situation at Arsenal. The guy is incredibly gifted yet lately, he is not getting any playing time whatsoever. It seems to me like he has been relegated to fifth choice striker.
To be honest I was always nervous about Eduardo moving to Arsenal and this is not due to lack of skill. On the contrary, I think Eduardo is the most gifted forward on the Arsenal squad. However, I could never stop thinking about what happened to Croatian megastar #### when he moved to Arsenal. Whenever #### started, he would score goals, and then one day Wenger decided to start Henry and ####'s career was over.
Do you think something similar is happening to Eduardo? Now that Walcott and Bendtner are doing well, is this pretty much it for Eduardo? What happened to "It is Eduardo's time to shine"? Could he really be struggling that much with getting accustomed to his life in England, that he does not even merit a spot on the bench? I personally highly doubt that. What are your thoughts?
Bobby – As others have pointed out Wenger generally does not rush new players into the side. There are also many examples of his patience paying off.
I don’t think comparing this situation to ####’s is necessarily a fair comparison. I stand to be corrected but my recollection is that ####’s best years were behind him by the time he came to Highbury. Otherwise Real Madrid would not have let him go so easily.
He had a great World Cup in 1998 but it was a bit of an anomaly compared to his club form. There is nothing in his record post-Arsenal to indicate that letting him leave was a mistake. In retrospect replacing a 31-year-old #### with a 22-year-old Thierry Henry paid off don’t you think?
Craigy f - Correct me if I'm wrong but can't a player still play for one country after playing for another country at u20 or u21 level. Freddy Adu can still play for Ghana at full international even though he's played for USA U20 MNT.
Bobby – You are right about the first point but not on the second I think. Adu has been capped at the full international level for the USA has he not - back a few years ago against Canada I believe.
Sleeper000 - You mentioned yesterday that you would start Taylor for Portsmouth. Who would you drop then? Certainly not Kranjcar who is doing so well for the team. Anybody who would drop Kranjcar is obviously not too familiar with his talent. I'd hesitate to drop Hreidarsson either since he compliments Niko so well. Your thoughts?
Bobby – I don’t recall saying that I would start Taylor. I noted he was being kept on the bench and had only started three Premiership games this season. He was Portsmouth’s second top scorer last season with 8 goals as he was the season before with 6. Given his talent and in particular his left foot I said he could be an in-demand player come the winter transfer window. Maybe a Portsmouth fan can fill any other details.
Ok, I see the danger more clearly now. Thanks, Bobby. About halfway through it hit me about SAF and then there it was in the next paragraph. When he leaves you have to expect a period of less than normal success and that can translate to that first domino falling. Plus this leaves little room for any "bad" gambles of the Veron, Forlan or Taibi variety. Do you think they really have any intent to actually pay down the debt or is their aim just to pay the interest leaving earnings to come from other financial avenues opened by owning the club plus any equity accrued as the value of the club rises?
Ohiogunner61 thankyou very much for explaining the Helb that explains alot.
Congrats to Brazil. First Africa then South America the next 2 World Cups will be very interesting and involve hell lot of parting but it might mean that we see Brazil win the world cup twice in a row coz they usually do very well in high attitudes and at home of course.
Bobby with Fifa deciding to cut the rotation system I feel this might be the last W.C. we see in Africa in a very long long time, and that's why I was hoping they would keep the rotation system.
Gilberto will likely not start on Sunday but we will be back for the C.L. That just my thought though. And Eduardo will get his chance, the games he has played especially starting he has struggled we will see him more in the C.L this season and people keep forgeting that we are only in Oct. Alot will happen in btwn and players will get a chance to play. The Fa hasn't even started yet.
Hope the Young Gunners beat Shefield tomorrow and keep our un-beaten record in all compes intact.
If England do host w.c 2018. Walcott will only be 29, Rooney 31 I think, Lennon 30, Richards around 30, too. If they stay on top of there games those are pretty good players to have at the pick as this world cup will probably be there last dance.
I would be good to see countries like Spain or Italy host a future WC. On another subject, do you guys think that Benitez will get fired? There was a article saying that he was under-pressure.
ulsterson - It might be a possibility. But that strategy comes with other risks - a spike in interest rates, a credit crunch or the lenders rights that might kick in if the principle is not paid down. Overall I would be surprised if they had the right to make interest only payments for an extended period but there again that is only a best guess.
I'd rather Belgium & the Netherlands host 2018 over England. China and Australia would be great host countries, too. Russia sounds interesting, but I just can't see them getting it.
Bobby as for leagues that allow 7 subs its pretty much every single one I've played in besides England in the FM series which is pretty accurate for things like that. Scottish, Dutch, Italian, Spanish and Turkish. Strangely the Scottish cup competition allows only 5 but the league 7. Its kinda strange especially when you get to the other extreme which is the WC which has a subs bench of 11 or 12 I think. Most club and country friendlies have up to 12 on the subs bench.
Just thought it was curious as it really does affect tactics. Example with a bench of 7 who knows who else Liverpool had fit to put on it and maybe Arbeloa wouldn't have been the sub used considering he was the only defensive player of the 4 outfield players.
edit: Also I just realized it really allows you to carry some younger prospects. Barcelona for example had Bojan and Das Santos on the subs bench in a game several weeks ago and both saw playing time as the game was a blowout.
Last edited by JayAlves on October 30th at 6:25 PM.
Bobby -
1 - well it's your blog!
2 - turnaround would equal midtable safety He's not going to get them into a UEFA cup spot from 18th!
3 - Milan looked tired - they carrired the CL game in their legs as did many of the Serie A sides that had European mid week games.
4 - waiter or fat spaniard - hmm?
5 - Any one of the Parma goals
6 De rossi's Pk miss then Solano - De Rossi got the winner because it made me laugh - Benjani gets a mention as well for a game winning chance wasted - that two points dropped may hurt Pompey for a European place.
What's all this about Liverpool being left $500million up the chuff! Do you know? I've only read a couple of brief bits, no details.
Chester City get Bradford City in the FA cup! They play them in the League on November the sixth (AWAY) then play them four days later in the Cup , AWAY. That's just wierd!
Bobby - I looked (briefly) for Adu stats and it didn't mention anything about US MNT. I may check tomorrow.
RINGO - Is Adu not snookered because he has represented the US in FIFA age group competitions and played in a full international game for the US? This is from the FA website -
"The new FIFA Statutes which came into force on 1 January 2004 saw a significant change regarding international eligibility for players with dual nationality.
The new Article 15 of the Regulations Governing the Application of the FIFA Statutes has been amended to state that that "a player may exercise his right to change Associations only if he has not played at "A" international level for his country and if, at the time of his first full or partial appearance in an international match in an official competition of any other category, he already had such nationalities.""
only the greatest time wasting device ever. Football Manager. The glorified video game that is pretty much a database of almost every single player in the world. Its very accurate when it comes to league rules and so on.
edit:
For example I never knew the dutch first division has a relegation playoff and a playoff for the European spots. Not exactly sure what the playoff entails but maybe I'll qualify for the Euro playoff as I lead the mighty Sparta Rotterdam!
Last edited by JayAlves on October 30th at 8:09 PM.
JayAlves, while like playing worldwide soccer manager (the U.S. version of the game - very addictive), I can't help to notice that it lacks detail for less known teams. Some key players that were involved in Champions League matches as well as Uefa Cup are missing. For example, I could not purchase or even find Mandzukic, the guy who scored two goals for Dinamo Zagreb against Ajax. I am hoping that issue will be resolved by the time the new patch comes out.
It seems FIFA now regards friendlies as A internationals ,so Adu is now only eligible for the US.
It also says on their website that players up to the age of 21 can change nationalities if they have not appeared in an A international ,but they can not appear in the same age competition for a second country.
RINGO - I stand to be corrected but I believe it is up to the country to designate whether or not the international is an "A" fixture. I know the words competitive international have been used over the last few years but I could not find such wording in the regulation or a definition.
Some leftover things I didn't get a chance to respond to...
ulsterson, I wasn't the one here who supported the idea of a unified GB team
rico, I was referring to Girardi, I actually (still) like my wife
bobby, you mentioned Eduardo's international record with his central/eastern European team, no Liverpool supporter can let that go without mention of Milan Baros.
Today's top headline courtesy of Liverpool's website: "A fit Kewell is like a new signing". I'm running out of fingers and toes to count how many times I've heard that one.
Terrapin Turtle, I did set it up with the larger database and I was still missing some players. The only way I could use any of the aforementioned players was to actually play in the targeted player's leauge. However, if however I was to manage Portsmouth and wanted to purchase a lesser know player, he just wouldn't be there. If I type in the name of the player's team, the roster would have a lot of blank shaded (players you can't buy) names.
Why the hell is the German national team completely shaded out? I can't purchase any of their players and they are a bunch of unknowns.
Anyways, I am sure it's just a bug issue, although I wonder if there is a difference between the digital download and disk version.
Man... I got cut out. Here is the last part of the comment:
That leaves Eduardo. I think he could become the star striker, the one scoring 30 goals plus (includi cups) if Wenger lets him.
Thoughts anyone?
Last edited by Sleeper000 on October 31st at 8:09 AM.
RINGO - It is as clear as mud. The reference to playing in an official competition gives way to a reference to an A international in a later clause. We need a lawyer.
Verbal - Can I suggest another headline " A fit Kewell is like a warm sunny day in Liverpool - something rarely seen and soon to change."
Damnit.
I wrote this huge paragraph about Arsenal and it got cut out.
Well I am not writing all of that stuff again.
I'll just quickly say that Arsenal should get a goal keeper preferably one from the Bundesliga as they have plenty of good ones.
I also wondered whether Modric was going to be purchased by Arsenal and where he could be slotted in.
Bobby you are spot on again with your United analysis, the article you posted about 3 months ago summed it up. What I was most struck by was that United were scheduled to pay around 8M(dollars I think) a month in interest only with no principal payments for several years. This was before they restructured. I am not predicting doom, but I believe they miscalculated the value of Utd's assets, and they were not undervalued.
I hate to say this but Roman did much better business. He paid relativley little for a club and then injected cash into making it competitive at the highest levels. Even though Chelsea will show large losses on their books the overall value of the club has increased. Damn those Russian Oligarchs.
I like it Bobby! In all seriousness, given Riise's poor form, Pennant's injury and Babel not really being a winger, I'm hoping that Kewell can play for at least as long as he did in '05-'06. Though you won't catch me holding my breath.
Sleeper000, again, I'd like to see how Eduardo does against actual competition. The Croatian league isn't the same as the bigger leagues and a strong international resume doesn't mean much when it comes to league ability (see again Baros, Milan).
Someone else had noted that Jol might not have had much say over the summer transfers right after I had posted that. And of course, seeing the harsh judgement I made... I called of the linching.
half way through the 2018 WC Beckham will be fired over an incident involving Walcott, Victoria, a blow tourch, a soccer ball, a donkey, a referee and his whistle. Being the only manager available, Souness will be appointed. He will then fire Owen and hire Gazza as his new assistant.
You'd want the Leeds-era Kewell of the 1999-2003 vintage. A cracking left-sided player who has looked like his mental edge along with his fitness since moving to Anfield.
You make a good point Verbal. I'd like to see more of Eduardo too. He can't really prove himself until Wenger lets him play on a more consistent basis though. These erratic appearances cannot be good for the striker. Start for 60 minutes, don't play for two games, come in in the 90th minute, start and play for sixty minutes, don't play for the next two games. How can anybody show goal scoring consistency with that kind of playing time.
I got an even better example for you. Aston Villa purchased Bosko Balaban. Aside from the first game he subbed in, the guy never played again. Can a player truly be blamed for his performance if the manager won't play him? Now, Balaban is not a great forward, but at least let the guy play to see what he is made off.
Nooooo.
Not Robert Goulet.
The Will Ferrel skit you have there was one of my favorite SNL skits. It made me appreciate the guy.
lol
Another good one: Alec Baldwin and Adam Sandler as the Canteen Boy. Thank God, Alec Baldwin is still alive though.
Last edited by Sleeper000 on October 31st at 10:19 AM.
Anyways, I watched BVB play against Bayern Muenchen the other day. Bayern didn't impress me that much. The Dortmund defense completely shut down Klose and Toni. The latter ended up being subsituted after 70 minutes. The only two players I liked on the Bayern team were Ze Roberto and Demichelis. The rest of them looked ordinary. On the Dortmund side Tinga looked impressive. He kept cutting off the Bayern attack and then getting involved in some creative offensive plays himself. I thought the Dortmund forwards disappointed a bit.
Valdez couldn't convert on some good chances and Petric just didn't play that well.
Other than that, Bayern didn't look like that great team that everybody's been talking about. It wasn't just this game either. They were terrible against Red Star Belgrade.
Bayern might win the title this year, but it seems like the Bundesliga is losing quality.
Last edited by Sleeper000 on October 31st at 10:17 AM.
Quoting Ciao:
"He will then fire Owen and hire Gazza as his new assistant".
- I would be curious to see how Gazza would do as a manager. He has that carisma and tenacity that Mac clearly lacks. Oh yeah, we can't forget his "great" (Mac')oratory skills either. The poor guy can't put a single cohesive sentence together.
Last edited by Sleeper000 on October 31st at 10:12 AM.
Sleeper I have only seen one small part of one bayern game, but they looked damned impressive when i saw them. But I would have to agree with you the German league has dropped in quality. My biggest piece of evidence is to see how all the german teams struggle in the champions league, and Uefa cup.
And nearly forgot portugal, probably a step above the netherlands.
I know this is a stupid arguement but of the top leagues in the world I would rank for best Spain Italy England tie, then France, and Germany, followed by the netherlands and scotland. Remember I am going for overall league quality here, not just based on the top teams in the champs league. And i would probably put turkey just behind netherlands and scotland.
I am trying to figure out what play maker - attacking midielder combo would be best for Brazil. Kaka is a given starter, but honestly I like Diego better than Ronaldihno. Diego is really a joy to watch. Sadly, (good for everyone else though) I do not think that Diego and Kaka can play together due to preferred positions and style of play.
Yeah I forgot about Elano. He should definately be considered for the starting lineup.
I would have to agree on the top leagues with you. If I were to rank the rest of the pack though, I'd go like this: Turkey, Scotland, Portugal, Russia, Ukraine, Holland (lately,really disappointing), and Greece.
Last edited by Sleeper000 on October 31st at 10:45 AM.
dos Santos is such an awful diver; it's getting to the point where Barcelona supporters are embarassed by his theatrics. Refs will be keeping an eye out for him more than ever now. It's a shame because he is a talented player.
Hugo Sánchez is probably the best player to come out of a CONCACAF nation.
EDIT: dos Santos has the makings of becoming one-- if not THE best-- if he curbs his diving. Sánchez has an incredible record to beat.
Last edited by atleti on October 31st at 11:09 AM.
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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