I received a question about the seedings for the group stage. The best internet site I have come across that details in the inner working of the UEFA seeding system and the co-efficients is authored by Bert Kassies. It is an impressive piece of work.
With the final thirty-two now decided you would have to rate Levski Sofia's (first Bulgarian side to make the group stage) defeat of Chievo as a major surprise as well as Ajax blowing a late lead and going out to FC Copenhagen.
FC Copenhagen contains some names that should be recognizable to many. Tobias Linderoth (ex-Everton), Marcus Allback (ex-Aston Villa) and Jesper Gronkjaer (ex-Chelsea) have all spent time in the Premiership. Goalkeeper Jesper Christiansen was with Rangers in Scotland while Razak Pimpong played for Ghana in the World Cup. Canadian Atiba Hutchinson, who will surely play in one of the big three leagues in Europe within the next couple of years, just signed for Copenhagen this year after spending two seasons with Helsingborgs of the Swedish league.
Here is the country-by-country by pot breakdown of the 32 teams that will be drawn on Thursday and last season's make up.
Country pot 1 pot 2 pot 3 pot 4 Total Last Season
Spain 3 0 0 0 3 4
Italy 2 1 0 0 3 4
England 3 1 0 0 4 4
France 0 2 1 0 3 2
Portugal 0 1 2 0 3 2
Holland 0 1 0 0 1 2
Germany 0 1 1 1 3 3
Scotland 0 1 0 0 1 1
Romania 0 0 1 0 1 0
Greece 0 0 2 0 2 2
Russia 0 0 1 1 2 0
Belgium 0 0 0 1 1 2
Ukraine 0 0 0 2 2 0
Bulgaria 0 0 0 1 1 0
Turkey 0 0 0 1 1 1
Denmark 0 0 0 1 1 0
Austria, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Norway, and Slovakia all had teams in the group stage last season but for 2006/07.
1. The seedings in each pot if only two years of coefficients were used.
2. A summary of movers and big winners and losers.
3. A summary of movers by region.
Go to Yankee Red Forum on this site http://community.foxsports.com/blog s/SLRed
Thanks for the link to that site
So Milan's returned slot was taken from the Italian Intertoto cup winner? Don't quite understand the Intertoto cup. Any help from the community would be appreciated.
Most strikingly, Mourinho, cry me a river... (they would be pot 1, 7th seed if only two years were considered, Man U. and Valencia on the other hand would go into pot 3).
Wow, has anyone else actually looked at this truly bizarre system?
Unlike the Sony World Golf rankings (rolling 2yrs) EUFA is 5 years. with no weighting for more recent years.
On top of that UEFA cup performance is rated rdiculously high. (eg. Midlesboro got double the rating of Manchester United last year and higher than Chelsea and Liverpool!!!)
The year before Newcastle got a higher rating than EPL winners Chelsea.
Even if you took only the last 2 years performance it's hardly any better with Middlesboro 11th,Newcastle 18th and Man U 20th (Chelsea would still not make the top 8!) It goes on and on
Looks like the bias to the 2nd tier competition is the problem....
Just seperate Eng, Germany, Sp and Italy winners plus last years semifinalists and throw the rest in a hat. It all looks so fixed. Who actually runs this?
If you look at the calculations on my blog, chelsea would be 7th seed if they went back two years. I agree it over rewards for UEFA cup placing.
On the other hand if they went back only two years I think it would be highly unfair. Would you like to be the pot 1 team that had to draw Man U. or Valencia?
UEFA is certianly not into "Ockam's Razor". Probably employ footie, fanatical physicists.
Cheers
YNWA
P.S. I invite everyone, especially Reds fans, to check out my blog
SLRed ... your right on the UCL seeds. Chelsea 7th over 2 yrs .(I made Arsenal 3rd but who cares). I was referring to the ratings table with Chelsea 10th. It's still screwed up. I still think 2 years is plenty.
Occam's razor states that the explanation of any phenomenon should make as few assumptions as possible. I think my one assumption is ... "It's fixed!" enjoy :)
Using two years of coefficients is certainly not fair, although I analysed two because I know that would be the Chelski fan preference.
1st UEFA is not trying to accurately seed according to current form/team strength. I give some reasons legacy might be important to the competition on my blog.
2nd Using the last two years would not succeed at producing any better correspondence between seed and current team strength. Although Chelsea would rightfully be in pot 1 it is certainly not the case that Man. U. and Valencia are only the 17th-24th best teams in the draw and behind Steaue Bucuresti and Hamburger respectively. Although I grant you that those bizarre results are caused by inflated UEFA cup performance.
In any case I would like to know exactly who the system is ‘fixed’ to benefit and why.
I have to say that l agree with the seeding system that is employed by uefa , l can not believe he underestimates other teams and seams not to know how tournaments run.how could mourinho give an example that arsenal get villareal in the semifinal and they get barca in the second round, he seems to say that the champions leauge system is flawed and should be a competion for clubs that are champions alone.l feel in a tournament any team can be dangerous
SLR: My "fixed" comment not too serious hence the :). I didn't say fair or unfair, I just thought it was (IMHO) a slightly strange system that by it's calculation protects the status quo.
OK, so you can can get a good group draw and still get knoocked by playing badly or get unlucky like ManU did.
Today's draw is a good example of why not ranking the in-form teams doesn't work. If you are Werder Bremen (2nd in Bundesliga and with a higher 2 yr rating than ManU) or Levski Sofia you are faced with finishing higher than Barcelona or Chelsea in group A. Compare this to the ManU and Liverpool groups). I rest my case.
Last edited by LosAngelesChelseaFan on August 24th at 10:18 AM.
What amazes me is the inclusion of national performance in the calculation.
I think the seeding formulae should be based on a 5 year period, but only on the individual clubs fortunes predominantly, if not totally, according to performance in the two European competitions.
Points should only be awarded for European qualification, groups stage qualification and then at each final stage, including winners. This over the past 5 years.
Then just take the top 8 and country-filter the rest as per pot 2 now.
What ever it becomes, if and when reviewed, (as I think the world ranking process is likely due for ammendment) a simpler formulae would be better.
Question: Is there national immunity in the draw for the 2nd round (1st knock out stage)? That is, if Chelsea were to finish second could they draw a first place Liverpool or Man. U.?
Cheers
YNWA
Visit SLC_Red's blog at: http://community.foxsports.com/blog s/SLRed
Teams can't draw a side from the group that they just qualified from or a team from the same country.
That only applies to the last 16 - after that it is open.
Chelsea fans are exempt from facing Barcelona in the last 16.
I think the way UEFA is doing it right now is just plain dumb... Then again, I don't agree with the whole Champions League system in general... How can a team that finished 4th in league play in the Champions league? In a perfect world the Champions League cutoff for any and all league would be at most second place (along with last years reigning champion) The UEFA cup can take the 3rd and 4th place teams...
But to say that what happened at a club 5 years ago is at all relevant today is just plain crazy... It's completely possible that there isn't one player on a team this year that was even at that club 5 years ago, so why a team this year should be benefitted/punished because of what some other players did half a decade ago just doesn't make sense...
I think even a completely random, completely seedless system would be more effective (as long as you don't allow teams from the same country into the same group)... I mean, to be the champion you've gotta beat whoever you play anyway, so when you play them shouldn't matter. Besides, JM should be happy about this... They play Barca at a time when they can lose both games to them, and still advance
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