Let's take a look at the statistics before we look in detail at the last five teams in this seasons upcoming Premiership. The chances are that at least two of the three promoted teams and the pair that finished just above relegation will be dropping down to the Championship come next May. In the last 13 seasons, at least two teams from that combination have been relegated, and in all 26 teams out of the 40 that have been demoted have come from the aforementioned grouping.
To narrow it down even more the chances of all three promoted clubs surviving is not good. Only the graduating class of 2000/01 (Blackburn, Bolton and Fulham) has managed to survive intact. Conversely only once have all three promoted teams immediately dropped back down – that was in 1997/98 with Barnsley, Bolton, and Crystal Palace.
History shows that come May 2007 the most likely relegation permutation will be one from Aston Villa or Portsmouth; one from Reading, Sheffield United or Watford; and one other side that finished between 11th and 15th last season. That has been the combination 6 out of 13 seasons.
Based of past performances of teams promoted by way of the play-offs Watford has the most to fear. Only 5 teams out of 13 have survived their first season in the Premiership after winning the play-offs. However, Reading should also be concerned because the record of the lower division winners is not that much better – 6 times out of 13, the champion has become a chump within 12 months. The best survival rate is by the previous year’s runner up – only 4 times out of 12 (one year the runner up did not receive automatic promotion) has relegation followed. A good omen for Sheffield United.
Last season Aston Villa slumped to 42 points their worst ever Premiership points total although they did finish 8 points ahead of the last relegated team. (In 1994/95 they finished with four more points although four more games were played that year and Villa only finished the year three points ahead of Crystal Palace who were relegated.) David O’Leary left by “mutual agreement” during the summer to finally end what was an inevitable parting of the ways.
The appointment of Martin O’Neill has set off a state of euphoria amongst the Villa faithful. However, until the ownership situation is sorted out and money is available to strengthen the squad any improvement will be limited. O’Neill has never job-hopped and with five years each at Wycombe, Leicester and Celtic the Villa fans will settle for steady improvement over a quick fix option.
Portsmouth is a side that has already sorted out it’s ownership over the summer but even with Harry Rednapp back as manager it looks to be another tough grind ahead for Pompey. The revolving managerial door has seen players arrive and leave by the dozen over the last twenty-four months. Ten players have left during the summer while Glen Johnson on loan from Chelsea and David Thompson signed as a free agent has arrived. Rednapp is sure to make more signings in the next ten days.
One of the most questions is “who can do a Wigan or West Ham this season?” It might be Reading. In Steve Coppell Reading has experience of managing in the Premiership (albeit with relegated Crystal Palace), a hard working squad and a management team that is unwilling to throw money around. The Reading investments (Sam Sodie and Seol Ki Hyeon) have so far been limited although a centre back continues to be a priority. However, it might be Reading’s ability to score goals that sees them survive in the Premiership.
Controversy and Neil Warnock go together like a rash and …poison ivy. If Warnock goes more than five games without hitting the headlines it will be a major shock. On the transfer front, the major acquisition has been defender Claude Davis from Preston although he is likely to miss the first part of the season through injury. Other arrivals include Mikele Leigertwood (Crystal Palace), Li Tie (from Everton) and David Sommeil (Manchester City).
Without any doubt, Watford was the surprise package of last season in the Championship. Tipped as relegation fodder the Hornets stunned the pundits and gained promotion after comfortably beating Crystal Palace and Leeds United in the play-offs. Manager Adrian Boothroyd was very much the flavour of the month come the end of last season but it will be interesting to see how long that lasts as Watford bring their “direct approach” to the Premiership.
Over the weekend, Danny Shittu opted for a shot at the premiership with Watford in preference to joining West Brom. Boothroyd has also added experience in the form of Damien Francis (Wigan) and Chris Powell (Charlton).
Sorry to talk about something other than your post but Bobby i just read on sky sports.com that Carlos Tevez has been offered to Man Utd. I also heard that Diarra might make a move from Lyon to Real.
I believe that Diarra would do well in Spain. I was hoping he would finally bring Madrid a longterm replacement for Makelele.
But as for Tevez, I have my doubts about his ability to challenge the best defences in Europe. Do you think that Tevez has the quality to go from the Brazilian league to success in the EPL?
Also, If you were in SAF's position, who would you pursue at this point in the transfer window? Ibrahimovic? Tevez? Torres?
Thank you for keeping this blog going. I keep finding myself checking it when i'm at work. Everyone's input has been great, and the dialogue has been very insightful.
djnima - There is at least one story in the British press linking Tevez with a possible move to Manchester United. If it happened then I believe that Tevez would be a success. also if it happened it would put an end to the believe that Abramhovic has an interest in Corinthians. Of the three Torres would be my top pick with Tevez next. Ibrahimovic is not a top class striker - his club average is about 2 goals every 5 games and United would be looking for better than that I think. His strength is playing just behind the main striker and United already have Rooney to do that.
I am hoping to be able to comment on the Italian and Spanish leagues when they get underway.
I don't really know much about any of the promoted teams but it seems to me that none of them have made that one signing that says "hey I wanna survive in the Premeirship". I know their budgets must not me massive but buying guys they faced in the lower leagues doesn't really help...at least I think. What I am waiting to see from these teams though is the young up and coming players who we don't know much about. For example last year...Reo-Coker, Etherington, Bullard. I've heard of a few names of these guys coming in like Lita, Tonge, Jagielka but i've never seem them play. As for Villa and Portsmouth I actually think they might both stay up this year because right now their teams look better than Boro and Fulham.
Reading were very impressive last season and play a style that I think will fit well in the PL. If we use Wigan as a measurement stick I think that Reading is a better team than Wigan were at this point last season. Though Wigan got an exceptional start with a confidence boost to follow and that will be hard to match.
My take is that Reading is staying up, Sheffield Utd and Watford only get one season in the sun. Redknapp is imo overrated and Portsmouth will follow the newcomers down despite the new money coming in.
Reading have struggled to make any name signings. I don't see this as a big negative though. They have a truely balanced squad and they play an attractive style of football. They may lack true EPL quality at most positions but do not underestimate the stength of a team that has everyone in their best position, have played together for several years and can stay high tempo for full 90 minutes. They will surprise some pundits this year. The CCC is where true English style football is still played. The EPL has gone continental and soft lately. Let's all hope Reading can restore honest football to the EPL.
Bobby if l remember quite well a couple of weeks ago l asked you about the gallas situation to arsenal and you said it could not happen but l just want to know how you would respond to these facts.On bbc arsene wenger clearly talked about his intrest in gallas although he said they had not talked to the player and chelsea but did not mention about communication with the player agent.he desperately wants the cole issue solved this week and in an interview after the az alkmar game said a couple of players might come this week with a defender on top of his wish list.Yesterday gallas agent claimed that arsenal were dead intrested in the frenchman and wanted to talk to chelsea about a move away to the emirates.Mourinho said he had not recieved offers for gallas appreciating that it was clearer that the frenchman was on his way out and to my mind it makes the deal more likely to be in the making since chelsea are not willing to go above $40m a deal wiht gallas coming the other way might be as close than you anticipated.
henry14 - I tried to clarify my comments to you at that time. I never said that the deal would not happen what I disagreed with was your assertion that Gallas could fill in at left back if Cole left. Not wishing to play left back is one of the primary reasons that Gallas wants to leave Chelsea so it makes no sense for him to switch clubs only to be stuck in the left back position again. I said if the deal went through it wouldn't solve Arsenal's left back problem given that Clichy is out until the fall and that they would still have to sign someone or make do at left back if Cole left.
I also remember pointing out in a post that Arsenal was very interested in Gallas but Abramovich bought the club and saved Chelsea from going into Admoinistration.
Last edited by BobbyMcMahon on August 7th at 12:31 PM.
Bobby l think hoyte and flamini could be temporary until clichy comes to the party but gallas could pair himself with toure and that is a big possibility.Gallas is as good a centre back as any and l can see him being given that position.You might try to point out that senderos needs to come to the party but do not forget that all the top 4 side in the prem play at least 58 games a season which can give senderos a good 20 to 25 games a season which l feel will develop him.L think arsenal will not have a left hand side problem if cole left because they have more than adequte cover .wenger wants a primary centre back who can also cover as a leftback so who ever comes is given the centreback berth first
William Gallas was clearly still upset today. "When I arrived back at Stamford bride I found my locker empty except for a note and a ticket - but the ticket was not to ze Cote D'Azure. It read:
"Dear William, we are pleased to have granted your wish to play alongside a world class Arsenal center defender, Sol Campbell, (although I think you're going to being playing left and right back too). Please find the enclosed second class one way train ticket to Portsmouth*. Also please sign and return the enclosed nine month’s loan agreement, Good luck, Bon Voyage, Chelsea Travel Department."
*(Ticket also valid for travel to Manchester City)
Last edited by LosAngelesChelseaFan on August 8th at 12:19 AM.
ahh yes that must have been the handywork of the special one. all of these headlines because he didn't show up for the tour of america? Bobby, with crespo now at inter who do u think jose will pursue in the market? Will it be a toss up for tevez between Man Utd and Chelsea? Sorry but I am very excited about tevez coming to the premier league.
It seems that with the amount of money that chelsea has brought to the league, it is not only bringing more and more talent to the EPL, but to the other top European clubs. While it is a pretty obscene amount of money Chelsea can splash, it does push the other teams to a higher standard. What are your thoughts?
Bobby l watched fox sports world report and l thought you were a bit to harsh on martins .l am not a Newcastle supporter but l feel that he would be a fantastic addition to their side.The guy is only 22 years old and has tons of potential , and as you know inter buys everyone around and with the number of forward players they had combinations and games were bound to be a problem.I remember that when he went to inter he was a replacement for crespo and he had a good bunch of game and l remember an espn commentator saying he had white hot pace and ice cool finishing.As long as owen is out l feel he could be one to give Newcastle an 18-20 goals a season.I can not understand why you don’t rate him
Portsmouth to me is about the craziest story of the preseason. Found the Premiership for the first time around 2003 and have not put together anything to speak of since, not to mention their most recent season, which I compare to a dead man being dragged back to life by shock paddles. They got Glen Johnson, a highly promising player, and they have made bids or expressed interest in guys like Sorin, Martins, Sol (spare me the over-the-hill rants), and God knows who else... I know they have some new cash reserves from ####damak but the pieces don't fit for me here. I'll admit there is a kind of odd magic to Pompey, and I do think they are going to be top 10 this season, but even with the necessary money I wouldn't think that top prospects could be lured to Fratton Park. Still, the transfer talk continues...
Last edited by USAenglandfan on August 8th at 9:27 AM.
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