This week we look at the clubs that finished six through ten in last season's Premiership.It is understandable that fans of Blackburn, Newcastle, Bolton, West Ham and Wigan are looking to improve on last season’s showing. However, history shows that it is more difficult to consolidate the improvement than it was to leap up the table in the first place.
Let us go back three seasons to the final league table of 2003/04. Aston Villa, Charlton, Bolton, Fulham, and Birmingham City filled positions six through ten respectively. The best performance over the last three seasons has been by Bolton. They have managed to finish in the top ten in the two seasons since; the worst is by Birmingham City – they are now in the Championship. Of the others, Villa slipped to 10th the next season and then 16th last season.Charlton, 11th and then 13th and Fulham 13th followed by a late rally last season that took them to 12th.
If we look at the 2004/05 league table, only Tottenham Hotspur (9th) improved their position the following year (5th). The others – Bolton, Middlesbrough, Manchester City, and Aston Villa – all garnered less points and dropped in the standings.
In fact over a four year spell finishing in the top ten has shown to be down right dangerous to a teams Premiership health. Consider this; Ipswich 00/01 (5th) - 01/02 (relegated), Leeds 01/02 (5th) – 03/04 (relegated), West Ham 01/02 (7th) – 02/03 (relegated), Southampton 02/03 (8th) - 04/05 (relegated), Birmingham City 03/04 (10th) – 05/06 (relegated).
So for Blackburn, Newcastle, Bolton, West Ham and Wigan will be it be up or will it be down this season?
Blackburn has brought in Jason Roberts from Wigan while Craig Bellamy – a big loss – and Paul Dickov have both departed. Mark Hughes is reported to be interested in signing Mr. Loyalty aka Nicolas Anelka while acquiring Francis Jeffers would seem to be an inexpensive gamble, albeit one that it unlikely to succeed.
Glenn Roeder faces the start of the season without his two main strikers from last season and a replacement for either, yet to be secured. With Michael Owen’s injury showing complications, his time on the treatment table may extend into 2007. Shola Ameobi is the only specialist striker available at the moment and although he can mature into a 12 to 15 Premiership goal scorer he cannot be expected to carry the full load.
The addition of Damien Duff should prove to be a great investment and he adds strength to a midfield that could be one of the best in the Premiership. Defensively Newcastle showed a massive improvement in cutting the goals against from 57 down to 42 and Shay Given was a big part of the reason. If the defensive can tighten up a little more and with a midfield that can score goals, Newcastle fans might just find that a few goals may generate many points. After all the speculation at the end of last season it looks like Sam Allardyce will still the man in charge at the Reebok come the Premiership kick off. Bolton has seen eight players leave already – seven if you exclude the strange case of Didi Hamann. Arrivals Abdoulaye Meite and Idan Tal are far from household names but big Sam has shown in the past a good eye for talent so we should not be surprised if they fit in smoothly. Further signings are promised and with the transfer window open until the end of August that gives Allardyce opportunity to shop around.
It was a great return to the big time for West Ham fans. A solid finish in the league and a trip to the FA Cup Final was more than almost everyone expected. Alan Pardew has already spent some money and is adamant that the likes of Dean Ashton will not be leaving Upton Park.
Paul Jewell is another manager who has given been given a freer role with the club’s chequebook this summer. Five players have arrived while eight have left. The loss of Jimmy Bullard will probably hurt the most along with the departure of Jason Roberts who improved as last season progressed. Other solid veteran players to leave such as Damien Francis, Alan Mahon, Stéphane Henchoz, David Thompson, and Matt Jackson might leave the depth of the squad paper-thin.
While Emile Heskey and Fitz Hall for a combined fee of around $14M raised a few eyebrows, Denny Landzaat from AZ Alkmaar might an inspired signing. Andy Webster may also be on his way from Hearts of the SPL.
In my own personal opinion this section of the table has always been the danger area for a couple of reasons..
Firstly the players tend to believe that having got to that position they are better than they actually are. They tend to forget that tenacity and hard work coupled with some luck actually got them there
Secondly the managers sometimes tend to think down the same lines and whereas they worked hard the year before to work out a plan to defeat teams rely on what they did the last time and hence dont do as well
Lastly the expectation from the board and fans alike is that they will push on from there and get higher or win the championship the next year and thus the players and manager when things dont work out tend to lose the plot and in house fighting starts. The year they get to such lofty positions there are usually very few expectations on them except to stay in the premiership now they have more scrutiny of what they are doing and thus usually tend to faulter
Very interesting article. While the top of the table is easy to predict, the bottom is a much tougher job to guess at this season.
Out of the glass ceiling clubs you mention, I predict all five will stay up. Glenn Roeder is a fantastic manager and Newcastle's midfield should make up for the loss of two key strikers. Wigan will find it harder this time, but as long as Jewell keeps their willingness to never give up, the team will succeed.
Blackburn will find it tough, too, but Mark Hughes is another great manager. They desperately need a replacement for Craig Bellamy before the transfer window closes.
For me, the clubs going down in the 2006/2007 season are Sheffield United, Aston Villa and either Charlton or Middlesbrough.
I dont think any of these teams will be relegated, with the closest possibility being Wigan. On the other hand, I don't see any of them cracking the top 5 either.
My Bolton side has quality but is on the thin side, be interested to see who Big Sam signs in the next few weeks. Newcastle should be strong again, provided they find another striker. Blackburn will be down a notch, I think, with the loss of Bellamy. Wigan will not do as well as last season, but I think Jewell will keep them up. West Ham could be improved, provided they shore up their defense.
My relegation candidates, other than the promoted sides, are Fulham & Man City
I'd like to commend the whole passport to Germany a crew for the great job you all did during the just ended world cup.However I observed that coverage of African teams was mostly biased and not very objective inspite of the African's great showing during the tournament.There is a host of Ghanaians living here in America hence objectivity would be very well appreciated especially from ones like Bobby.I would nevertheless want to commend the host(cant think of his name) of that show for his quite objective analysis.Ghana says THANK YOU!!!
I'd like to commend the whole passport to Germany a crew for the great job you all did during the just ended world cup.However I observed that coverage of African teams was mostly biased and not very objective inspite of the African's great showing during the tournament.There is a host of Ghanaians living here in America hence objectivity would be very well appreciated especially from ones like Bobby.I would nevertheless want to commend the host(cant think of his name) of that show for his quite objective analysis.Ghana says THANK YOU!!!
Bobby, the damien duff move was a classic example of how chelsea's money are hurting the other top flight teams in the league. it was a slick move probably masterminded by mourinho to make sure to keep the other teams out of contesting the premiership. Mourinho know that he could never sell such a great player like duff to liverpool or tottenhan, the closest challengers to the three-peat. Since no one can match chelsea's spending power, it's not how many titles will they win, but by how much? How many medals will mourinho throw into the crowd next spring?
By the way, Michelle was being b*tchy on the report tonight. She must be jealous of your success with max bretos. I have to admit I used to think max was a tool. But he's one of those awkward american announcers who know somewhat what he's talking about. The coverage of the world cup was so horrible in comparison to the analysis by ticket to germany. great month. great job.
you should definitely make some expert appearances on fox football friday. come back to LA!!!!
There are teams that'll spend their money more astutely than others. However with the likes of the big spenders within the Premiership it'll make it extremely unlikely that the smaller teams will be able to compete with the larger teams. The perennial big spenders like Man. Utd , Chelsea and Arsenal are content in the knowledge that they've got board members who will go to no ends to secure the talent needed ensure success.
Djnima - The crew on the FSWR is great to work with and I have never seen any sign of bruised ego's or anything similar in the nearly 5 years I have been working with them. I also enjoyed the stint in LA with Max. Max and the guests we had on the show during the the WC were all great to work with. I worked for a few years in radio and I have seen a number of "temper tandrums" first hand. However, that has never been a problem with the FSWR and FSC folks I have been involved with. I have been lucky and enjoyed nothing but great experiences and more than a few laughs.
Last edited by BobbyMcMahon on July 25th at 6:42 AM.
Of this group, I think Wigan will have the toughest time this season--which is a pity because they were so entertaining last year. Bullard will be a huge loss as he was the driving force within Wigan's midfield, contributing on offense and defense. I haven't seen Landzaat play but if he's as good as the buzz surrounding him then maybe I'll have to eat my words.
I know that Henchoz is aging but his experience will be hard to replace; it will be a steep learning curve for Hall. Hall didn't look that impressive when he was in the EPL with Palace, he'll have to improve tremendously to fill Henchoz's boots.
Roberts formed an effective partnership with Camara and I don't think either player will do as well on their own next season. Heskey is a huge gamble. My guess is that Jewell wants to partner Heskey's strength with Camara's pace. Wigan would have been better off giving Roberts a much improved contract than spending that money on Heskey.
One final question. Why does nobody seem to want David Thompson? First Blackburn then Wigan let him go for free. He seems to be an inventive and creative player...does he have a long-term injury that scares teams away? It just seems that he's a very underrated player. Any insights?
At the end of the day, it has to do with the two “Ms”: Money and Mentality. Are these teams able to better-utilize the newfound wealth that comes from having placed between 6th and 10th? Can they adjust their mentalities to understand the reality of been “a contender”? Many teams are simply not able to answer positively to these questions, and find themselves struggling to keep it. Bolton is an exception of this rule, but there aren’t many exceptions out there. Great analysis Bobby. Perhaps you could do something similar with La Liga and Serie A… I would be curious to see the results. Thank you!
Great analysis. I would love to see wigan and west ham do well as they do have the potential. i agree that newcastle will probably drop to the second half of the table and Bolton need to step up their buys in the market or their fate will be simmilar.
keep up the Blog Bobby and FSWR is honestly the BEST football analysis show i have seenyou guys have great chemistry and i enjoy it greatly.YNWA
Stros - Apart from a couple of bad injuries I have not heard of David Thompson carrying "baggage". I was surprised when Liverpool sold him to Coventry a few years back. My guess would be that clubs look at his salary expectation and injury record and aren't willing to gamble.
Anyone else have any scoop on Thompson?
Last edited by BobbyMcMahon on July 25th at 9:00 AM.
1) Schevchenko! To be able to see one of the world's greatest, in the prime of his career (fingers crossed his knee is all good now, looked ok enough in the World Cup) in the Prem will be amazing. Say what you will about Abromavich's backing, but he is providing a real treat to all English fans by bringing the best of the best to England.
2) Ronaldo/Rooney, if Ronaldo stays. I do know that Ronaldo does flop like none other, but I don't think Scolari cared one bit about it, and I don't thing ole' Fergie or the United faithful will care if he wins a crucial penalty or earns Kolo Toure a red card. I think he's an absolute amazing player despite his histrionics, and I think he has the potential to stick it to all his boo birds all over England - he could be the most talented player in the country.
3) Fox Sports World Report! It's on the rise - new graphics, better quality, inspired commentary from newly world-cup enthused anchors! I feel the confidence and the enjoyment between all the participants rising - you guys have a great chemistry, never sounding elite or, contrarily, underinformed. Keep up the good work.
On the "glass ceiling" issue, another thing to consider is the regression effect--a team may hit a peak but will find its way back to its average. Everton two seasons ago were a solid team, but they also overachieved and couldn't maintain it the next season. Similarly within last season, Wigan were probably a tenth-place team all along, but early on were walking on water. (Not to downgrade them. I doubt I was alone in predicting they'd be relegated, and look what they managed.)
Although history has a habit of repeating itself, I think this coming year we will see a shift in the relegation tussle away from the natorious 6-10 teams who somehow mangae to plung themselves into the relegation quagmire.
Watford, Reading and Sheff Utd will do extremely well to survive. The Premiership is so strong now, that to even contemplating survival you have to come out of the gate as Wigan did and win early. If these three teasm lose early, they will be locked in at the bottom.
The other condenders to drop down, Villa, Middlesbro, and as a dark horse Blackburn. They made a huge error in letting Bellamy escape, and it may prove too much to bear. Also Portsmouth could find that even with their great escape act of last year, that unless they can really bring in top players, they too will slide into the battle.
Of the rest, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool will be strong, I think Spurs and Man Utd will be the fight for forth this year. Utd have way too many issues right now. Scholes is still struggling with his sight, Van Nistelroy is leaving I would imagine, Rooney cannot do it all, Utd have to figure outthe midfiled as well, Ronaldo will do well just to play with all the abuse he is sure to recieve from every ground he goes to. It will no surprise for him to be gone very soon.
Bolton, West Ham, and Newcastle should be UEFA contenders, and of all the teasm I would like to see do well, Newcastle deserve success, they have such a great fan base. Of course my heart is at White Hart Lane, so heres hoping.
Last edited by Crapshoot on July 25th at 11:23 AM.
you're right bobby i was out of line. i guess i'm just suffering from the withdrawls from ticket to germany. i felt that max and you were a great team and i miss that show! fox definitely needs to be taking care of u 2 and come up with another show for u. btw which is your favorite team in the premiership?
Djnima - let's just say that the first result I look for is Dundee's in the SFL. Over the years I have followed English teams where Dundee - or even Dundee United - players have gone.
That goes back a long time; Ian Ure (Arsenal and Manchester United), Alan Gilzean (Spurs), Charlie Cooke (Chelsea and Crystal Palace), Iain Phillip (Crystal Palace), John Duncan (Spurs and Derby), Jim Steele (Southampton), Andy Gray (Aston Villa, Everton), Duncan Ferguson (Everton and Newcastle), Ray Stewart (West Ham), Colin Hendry (Manchester City and Blackburn), Alex Reid (Newcastle), Gordon Strachan (Manchester United and Leeds) to name a few.
The lastest transfer rumours about Thompson are that he will join West Brom. Beyond that, I have not read anything about him being a problem in the dressing room. I think the horrid time he has had with injuries in recent seasons has been enough to give teams pause over signing him. I was actually surprised Wigan let him go as they are lacking midfield depth at the moment. In my view he played well for them after his move from Blackburn.
I think Djnima's comment on the WC coverage was very accurate. The SN/TSN 'analysis' was at best a blinding glimpse of the obvious, and at worst (most of the time) I just muted it out. In contrast, I couldn't wait for the TTG and FSWR shows each night. I also agree re Max -- working with you seemd to calm down his hyper US style, and what do you know, he actually does have something to say! I'll try to be more patient with him from now on (although it's tough to take anything related to the MLS seriously).
Great to see that you're keeping the blog going too -- keep at it!
Here is something that last season's Blackburn Fan Panel has provided me with.
"While Jason Roberts is a terrific signing from Wigan, Blackburn supporters are anxiously awaiting confirmation of the signing of Benni McCarthy. The departure of both Craig Bellamy and Paul Dickov has left a large hole to be filled at the top of the formation.
While Dickov's production had waned, you can't ignore him as a factor in Blackburn's success. He's a terrier. A pesty pup unwilling to let go of any cause. His pure hustle and determination makes up for his stature and that means he will be missed.
Bellamy is a different prospect altogether. He's very fast, agile and quite clever. He's at the peak of his career and has the ability to run at people as well as to sit on the last defender and run down balls through or over the top which means he's a big loss. Roberts will fill part of that, and hopefully McCarthy will take up the rest of the slack.
With the proven abilities of the returning Pederson and Reid out wide, things will still be open in the center allowing chances for the strikers (hopefully McCarthy as one). Anelka? Don't want him. I love the desire of players like Dickov and Bellamy and frankly, Anelka has gobs of talent but doesn't seem to care. Jeffers has never lived up to his potential, so if he fills the squad player role giving depth to the strike force, terrific. I'm not counting on more than that."
I am the soccer analyst for the Fox Soccer Report and appear twice a week - every Monday and Friday at 10:00 EST. I have also been a regular contributor to the Fox Soccer Channel website since the summer of 2004. Over the last twenty years I have contributed to various radio and television programs throughout North America as well writing about the game for newspapers, magazines and websites.
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