(Note: This was intended to be a comment on Socalsportsfan's blog. It is a response to his claims that Dayn Perry is an idiot and that Zito is better off as a light thrower than hard throwers. He uses Maddux and Glavine as examples to support Zito.)

Barry Zito's peripherals (which by the way are much better predictors of future performance than other stats) have been getting worse for years:

2001: 8.6 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.8 HR/9
2002: 7.1 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9
2003: 5.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
2004: 6.9 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 1.2 HR/9
2005: 6.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.0 HR/9
2006: 6.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.1 HR/9

Zito is 28. Maddux's peripherals at 28 were 7.0 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9. Glavine's peripherals at 28 were 7.6 K/9, 3.8 BB/9, 0.5 HR/9. Clearly, Barry Zito is not the same pitcher as Maddux or Glavine. Maddux struck out 1 more, walked 3.5 less, and gave up one less home run per nine innings. That's probably worth about 3 points of ERA. Glavine struck out 1.5 more and gave up 0.5 less home runs per nine innings. That's probably worth about 0.75 points of ERA. Looking at Glavine's and Maddux's ERAs from those years, that puts Zito's projected ERA at around 4.50, which is about league average. That makes him a good #3 pitcher or an adequate #2.

Zito's ERA has been lower because Billy Beane has been concentrating on defense. Barry Zito is a flyball pitcher that relies on his defense, particularly outfield defense. Going from Oakland's defense to San Francisco's will not fair well for Zito.

As for the Giants being contenders, take a look at the Dodgers and Diamondbacks farm systems. Both of those teams are on the way up (if Ned Coletti would stop trading away his talent for do-nothing veterans). The Giants are on the way down. Their age suggests they have one or two years left. How is Zito going to contend after that? He has seven years in San Francisco. Maybe they'll contend in the last two year as well. At best, the Giants will be contenders for 4 of his 7 years. More likely, they'll contend in 2 of those years.

Overall, Barry Zito is not as good as his ERA suggests, is going to have a worse defense behind him, is going to be on a non-contender for most of his contract, and is being paid like a #1 starter. To me, location and money were the most important criteria for Zito's signing.