In another story that is far from breaking news (see last post regarding Homer Bailey, which turned out right), Juan Pierre is downright terrible. But I could have told you that years ago as he hasn't had an OBP over .330 since 2004. Anyway, I'm watching the Mets/Dodgers game on CW11, and they mentioned that Jack McKeon always batted Pierre leadoff and Luis Castillo second. Now that Grady Little is batting Juan Pierre second, they think that second is better suited to Pierre's tastes and even use OBP as a reason. However, if he doesn't have an OBP good enough for leadoff, why is it all of a sudden good enough for second?

I took the Dodgers lineup from Sunday and plugged it into the great Lineup Analysis tool available over at Baseball Musings. Here are the results.

Actual Lineup

Rafael Furcal
Juan Pierre
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Luis Gonzalez
Nomar Garciaparra
James Loney
Andre Ethier
Eric Stults

Lineup Analysis Best Lineup

Luis Gonzalez
James Loney
Andre Ethier
Russell Martin
Jeff Kent
Nomar Garciaparra
Rafael Furcal
Juan Pierre
Eric Stults

I'm surprised that Furcal is placed in the seven spot, but further inspection makes me believe that he is best suited there. Nomar, Furcal, and Pierre all have lower OBP than the rest of the lineup, so it makes sense that they're at the bottom of the lineup, consuming the fewest at-bats. One interesting by-product of this lineup is that Furcal and Pierre are freer to run at the bottom of the order because the risk is lower without the big bats coming up, and the reward isn't as minimized as the risk because the on-base guys are coming up at the top of the order. You don't need power guys to drive in guys from second after their steals. A single will bring them home just as well as a double or homer.

While I did use the analysis tool in trying to find the optimal lineup, it should be noted that their actual best lineup would look something like this.

Optimal Lineup

James Loney
Matt Kemp
Luis Gonzalez
Russell Martin
Wilson Betemit
Andre Ethier
Rafael Furcal
Jeff Kent
Pitcher

The Dodgers should just realize that the Pierre and Nomar signings are sunk costs, just as they were when the ink was still wet. Bench those two guys and play the better young players (Kemp and Betemit), who on top of being better also have potential to get even better. Betemit has gotten a raw deal due to his low batting average, but his OBP and SLG (.366 and .497) haven't taken the same hit. Just as they were at the start of the season and just as they were at the time of the signings, Juan Pierre and Nomar Garciaparra are overrated and deserve to be on the bench watching Matt Kemp and Wilson Betemit put nearly one more run on the board every night (5.565 to 4.770 runs per game according to the Lineup Analysis tool).