Unlike the previous two teams I covered, it's obvious the Cubs, at 48-29, are going to be contenders in 2008. The Cubs are also one of the most balanced teams in the league: 2nd most runs on offense and 5th fewest runs on defense. What do they need to put them over the top in their elusive hunt for a championship?

On offense, they currently have no holes, but there are a couple of question marks in my mind. One, can Ryan Theriot keep this up all year? Two, has Jim Edmonds found the fountain of youth buried deep inside Wrigley Field? To answer the first one, there's nothing in Theriot's advanced or batted ball statistics to suggest that he's not for real. On the other hand, his batting line is held up by a great April. He hit .340/.415/.457 in April, followed by .308/.407/.337 in May and .308/.349/.333 in June. That's right; he only has 5 extra base hits since April. If he has lost his stroke, the Cubs should still be okay as they can always turn to one of Ronny Cedeno, Mike Fontenot, or Eric Patterson (I still think DeRosa could handle shortstop). Center field might be a different story. After hitting .252/.325/.403 for the Cardinals last year, Edmonds opened the year hitting .178/.265/.233 for the Padres. That prompted the Padres to release him May 9th, and the Cubs signed him to a league-minimum contract 5 days later. In the same amount of playing time in Chicago as San Diego, Edmonds has hit .300/.352/.587. All told, he's hitting .235/.305/.400 and his defense has been okay (.955/.914 RZR and 100/104 Rates with Chicago/San Diego). If he goes back to being 38 (okay, so he's not 38 until Friday), the Cubs will need to look for another solution. The 23-year old Felix Pie hasn't re-found his swing at AAA (.222/.274/.393), and on top of it, he recently injured his hand. Basically, if Edmonds falls apart, there's a hole in center.

Moving to the pitching staff, the bullpen has been outstanding, led by non-closer Carlos Marmol. Over 40 innings, Marmol has struck out 64 and only walked 20 with an ERA of 3.00. The actual closer Kerry Wood has also pitched well. In his 38.2 IP, Wood has an ERA of 2.56 with 46 strikeouts and 8 walks. So if the bullpen doesn't need any help, what about the rotation? Recently disabled Carlos Zambrano has pitched well as has the surprising Ryan Dempster. In the other three rotation spots, Ted Lilly, Jason Marquis, and Sean Gallagher have held their own. If the Cubs wanted to enhance their chances of both getting to and doing well in the playoffs, the starting rotation is a good place to target. They've been in several rumors, including those for C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett. They have spare middle infielders (Cedeno, Fontenot, and Patterson), outfielders (Pie and Matt Murton) and starting pitchers to use as trade bait (Rich Hill and Sean Marshall). If they could land a top pitcher like Sabathia or Burnett, they'd have to be considered favorites in the National League. Maybe this is the year for the Cubs to break the 100-year curse.

Potential upgrades: SS, CF, SP

Possible trade bait: Cedeno, Fontenot, Patterson, Pie, Murton, Hill, Marshall

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Interesting note about the Cubs: They have pretty much everyone locked up for the next couple years. Their only 2008 free agents are Dempster, Wood, Bob Howry, Jon Lieber, Daryle Ward, and DeRosa's their only 2009 free agent.

The Mariners are a team I generally take a lot of flack about, but I think that might be a little different now. The Mariners are doing worse than anyone expected, and at 19.5 GB, the Mariners are expected to be sellers this season. With several high salaries on the roster and not much down on the farm with Jeff Clement already in the majors, it's hard to say when the Mariners should target for contention. Let's take a look before setting a target year.

Potential Starters under Contract for 2009

C Kenji Johjima, C Jeff Clement, 2B Jose Lopez, 3B Adrian Beltre, SS Yuniesky Betancourt, OF Ichiro Suzuki, OF Wladimir Balentien, OF Jeremy Reed

SP Felix Hernandez, SP Erik Bedard, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista

CL J.J. Putz

If Washburn, Silva, and Batista were not performing so poorly, I'd suggest that they try to trade them off for prospects. Alas, that doesn't appear to be an option. What does this team need to win in 2009? In my opinion, they'd need Washburn, Silva, and Batista to return to league-average form, and they'd need to bring in two of the top offensive free agents (Mark Teixeira, Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley). Given that you can't expect all three of those pitchers to return to form, that means they'd need to bring in a good starting pitcher as well. In the end, it would be nearly impossible to get three top free agents to join the Mariners in the same offseason, mostly due to cost. In the end, I'd implode this thing and start from scratch. That means making trades that will make the 2008, 2009, and 2010 teams worse, but as Billy Beane says, "You're either building something that's special or you have something that's special. In between is just no man's land." It's time for the Mariners to get out of no man's land and start building something special. Let's set 2011 as the target date.

Players to Cut

1B Richie Sexson and DH Jose Vidro

Just like when managers get fired, sometimes players become scapegoats as well. However, Sexson and Vidro have played so horribly that they deserve their fate. I don't think either will get anything back in trade, and since they aren't part of the organization's future, it's time to move on without them.

Players to Trade This Season

3B Adrian Beltre, LF Raul Ibanez, SP Erik Bedard

Raul Ibanez is the obvious name here as he's a free agent this offseason. Beltre and Bedard are both under team contract for 2009, but they shouldn't be a part of a rebuilding effort. Beltre is 29 and starting to enter the decline phase of his career. The Mariners should get what they can for him now rather than wait for him to leave as a free agent. Bedard is also 29, and as I read somewhere (sorry, I can't find it back), remove his 2007 season and all of a sudden, it doesn't look like Bedard is having a down year. His K/9 rates over the last 5 years are 7.93, 7.94, 7.84, 10.93, and 8.06. Now, you tell me which one looks out of place. It's starting to look like last year was a fluke for Erik Bedard. As I said, he's a free agent following the 2009 season, and it doesn't sound like the Mariners clubhouse is going to miss him anytime soon. They might as well turn him into prospects now.

Players to Trade down the Road

C Kenji Johjima, SP Jarrod Washburn, SP Carlos Silva, SP Miguel Batista, RP J.J. Putz

Right now, they have to hold onto these guys due to underperformance and/or injury, but I wouldn't consider any of them to be worth holding onto over the long-term. Only Silva's younger than 30, but the Mariners need all of them to regain their productivity in order to get meaningful offers in return.

Core to Build Around

C Jeff Clement, OF Ichiro Suzuki, SP Felix Hernandez

Clement might not stick at catcher due to defensive concerns, but his bat appears to be capable of starting at 1B. They should give him as much time as possible at catcher to see if he can stick, but he has his doubters. King Felix needs to stay healthy, but the guy I want to talk about is Ichiro. While I'm skeptical that he's worth the $90 million he signed for less than a year ago, Seattle's the only place where he's possibly worth it. If the Japanese influence wasn't so large, I'd suggest they (gasp) trade Ichiro, but it is. While they rebuild, maybe they can use Ichiro to fool people into thinking they're not.

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Let me hear your thoughts about what the Mariners should do. I'm sure there are several people who disagree with mine. It took a while to get myself off the fence about their future, but remembering the Billy Beane quote did it for me.

Sitting 12 games back in the division and 14 games back in the wild card, the Washington Nationals should be sellers in this year's trade market. Given their current roster and farm system, this is going to be a long rebuild. They could always thank Omar Minaya for that, although there were thoughts that the organization wouldn't even exist the year after that trade. I'm going to set the target date for contention at 2011. Let's run down the roster and see who should stay and who should go.

Core to Build Around

C Jesus Flores, 3B Ryan Zimmerman, LF Elijah Dukes, CF Lastings Milledge

Zimmerman's last year under team control is 2011, so he's a contract extension candidate a couple of years down the road. As a Rule 5 pick a year ago, Flores has five more years under team control while Dukes and Milledge are under team control through 2013. Even better, all four players are only 23 years old.

Possible Trade Chips

C Paul Lo Duca, 1B Dmitri Young, SS Cristian Guzman, RP Jon Rauch, RP Saul Rivera

Jon Rauch might seem like a strange name here, but he is eligible for free agency following the 2010 season. Given how outstanding Rauch has been this year filling in at closer and his age (29), his value is probably at its peak. Combined with the typical year-to-year volatility of RPs, now would be the right time to pull the trigger on a Jon Rauch trade.

Possible Trade Chips if They Can Prove They're Healthy and Productive

1B Nick Johnson, RF Austin Kearns, RP Chad Cordero

All three players should be back before the trade deadline. Hopefully, they can be productive enough to garner interest from another team. If not, the Nationals can always wait until the offseason or next season's trade deadline to trade Johnson, Kearns, or Cordero as all three are signed through 2009.

It's been a couple weeks since my last post, but I've been keeping track of things I wanted to talk about. Rather than write an insanely long post in which I go into detail about each, I'll try to keep each short and sweet.

Back on May 22nd, it was reported that the Texas Rangers are exploring a long-term contract for Josh Hamilton. Hamilton won't hit arbitration until after the 2009 season, and he won't be a free agent until after 2012. For a guy with his talent, I'd normally say that it would be a good idea to get him signed long-term, but for a guy with his off-the-field past, I'm a lot more hesitant. I've heard stories about how Johnny Narron went with him everywhere on the road last year to help him stay on the straight-and-narrow, and he also mentioned in an interview last year about how he never carries more than $20 and how his wife keeps possession of the car keys to remove temptation to go buy drugs. I admire that Hamilton has turned his life around and takes precautions like I mentioned so he never goes down the road again, but is this a guy you'd be willing to wager millions of dollars on for the next 5+ years?

Concussions are an issue that typically doesn't get enough attention. This article is a few days old but I'd suggest reading it if you haven't. It seems that people hear concussion and stop worrying about the injury like the player will miss a day or two, and everything will be fine. As Corey Koskie unfortunately demonstrated, concussions are serious. The expectation for players to be willing to play through a concussion is terrible, and then actually using said players is even worse. I've often wondered if using the term "brain injury" instead of concussion would make people step back and think, "Hey, maybe we should take this more seriously."

J.P. Ricciardi has been getting a lot of criticism lately, and it's easy to see why. One particular move that made no sense at the time was the release of Frank Thomas. Although Thomas is now on the DL, he's hit .319/.417/.516 since being picked up by Ricciardi's former employer, the Oakland A's. Ricciardi was quoted saying, "I told Frank our decision is based on performance." Thomas said, "Sixty at-bats isn't enough to make that decision." Thomas only has 91 at-bats with Oakland, but it doesn't appear that Frank Thomas is done quite yet.

Speaking of criticism, Jose Guillen recently criticized his teammates and even called them babies. I find that funny coming from a guy who has had his own maturity questioned throughout his career.

Moving over to fantasy baseball, prior to the season, I traded Alex Rodriguez and Mariano Rivera for Hanley Ramirez and Cole Hamels. Now, I know that the #1 overall pick doesn't typically get traded, but I feel like I got a pretty good deal there. What I really want to point out is that if you are going to trade a player like A-Rod, make sure to do better than this.

This past Thursday, Brian Sabean was quoted as saying that he feels good about his team. They've lost four games since and their playoff odds have fallen below 1%. Now, I'm not sure what he sees that I don't. The Giants only have 5 players with an OPS over .800, and three of them have 25 or fewer ABs. I think it's safe to say that Brad Hennessey, Matt Cain, and Omar Vizquel will not finish above the .800 mark.

Sabean was also quoted saying, "We've now got a solution at first base. We've got a solution at third." Does anyone know who he's talking about? They've used Rich Aurilia (.239/.306/.372), John Bowker (.269/.300/.452), Dan Ortmeier (.255/.359/.364), and Jose Castillo (.267/.327/.452) to man those positions this season. At positions where the rest of the league is averaging .269/.359/.474 and .266/.333/.443, only Jose Castillo remotely qualifies as a "solution." If you could combine Bowker's power and Ortmeier's on-base ability, maybe you're onto something. Then again, that's if you think they can continue to hit this "well." Out of the four, Aurilia is the only one underperforming expectations. The other three are well above what was expected. In the end, the Giants are exactly what they were two months ago - a team with no present and not much of a future. It's impossible to compete when you field less than 1/2 of a major league team.