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    Postseason Picks: Divisional Round

    Wednesday, January 10, 2007, 05:54 PM EST [General]

    After going 3 for 4 in the Wild Card round, I'm going to leave my picks for the remaining rounds as they are from last week.

    Divisional Round
    San Diego over New England
    Baltimore over Indianapolis
    Chicago over Seattle
    New Orleans over Philadelphia

    Conference Championships
    Baltimore over San Diego
    Chicago over New Orleans

    Super Bowl
    Baltimore over Chicago

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    Postseason Picks

    Wednesday, January 3, 2007, 09:41 PM EST [General]

    It's the start of the playoffs, and although no one can predict the future, everyone tries. Here are my picks for the postseason:

    Wild Card Round
    Indianapolis over Kansas City
    Dallas over Seattle
    New England over New York
    Philadelphia over New York

    Divisional Round
    San Diego over New England
    Baltimore over Indianapolis
    Chicago over Dallas
    New Orleans over Philadelphia

    Conference Championships
    Baltimore over San Diego
    Chicago over New Orleans

    Super Bowl
    Baltimore over Chicago

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    Predicting the Future

    Sunday, December 31, 2006, 09:16 AM EST [General]

    While it is nearly impossible to predict what will happen in the NFL, I'm going to lay out my predictions for the playoffs.

    AFC
    Seeding
    1. San Diego Chargers
    2. Baltimore Ravens
    3. Indianapolis Colts
    4. New England Patriots
    5. Denver Broncos
    6. New York Jets

    Wild Card Round
    Colts over Jets
    Patriots over Broncos

    Second Round
    Chargers over Patriots
    Ravens over Colts

    Conference Championship
    Chargers over Ravens

    NFC
    Seeding
    1. Chicago Bears
    2. New Orleans Saints
    3. Philadelphia Eagles
    4. Seattle Seahawks
    5. Dallas Cowboys
    6. New York Giants

    Wild Card Round
    Eagles over Giants
    Cowboys over Seahawks

    Second Round
    Bears over Cowboys
    Saints over Eagles

    Conference Championship
    Bears over Saints

    Super Bowl
    Chargers over Bears


    I plan on updating my predictions as the weeks progress. This is not to make myself look smarter but rather to pick from the actual matchups and not my projected matchups and to update the available information for each team. Each game reveals something new about the teams.

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    All-Pro Team by the Statistics, Part III

    Sunday, December 31, 2006, 07:45 AM EST [General]

    It's time for the special teams to get their day in the sunlight. This All-Pro team is going to be trying to get an advantage in the field position game.

    Special Teams

    Kicker: Robbie Gould, Chicago Bears
    Gould averages 65 yards on his kickoffs, and he leads the league with 142 points on 32 of 36 FGs and 46 of 46 XPs. Using Football Outsiders statistics, Gould and the Bears' coverage unit are 18.1 points above average on kickoffs. The next closest team is the Bucs at 12.9. When your favorite team signs an expensive kicker like Adam Vinatieri, keep in mind that kickoffs are more important than most people think and that kickoff distance is much more consistent than field goal percentage.

    Punter: Dustin Colquitt, Kansas City Chiefs
    Football Outsiders has the Chiefs at 14.5 points above average on punts with the Bills close behind at 13.3. Comparing Colquitt to Brian Moorman of the Bills, Moorman does have the advantage in punts inside the 20, punts inside the 10, and fair catches, but Moorman has 85 punts to Colquitt's 67. Here's how they stack up per-punt:

    Colquitt: 44.6 yards, 32.8% inside 20, 14.9% inside 10, 25.4% fair catches, 6.0% touchbacks
    Moorman: 43.7 yards, 36.5% inside 20, 12.9% inside 10, 23.5% fair catches, 5.9% touchbacks

    Punt Returner: Devin Hester, Chicago Bears
    Hester has handled 95.7% of the Bears' punt returns, averaging 13.3 yards. The Bears as a team averaged 12.7 yards per punt return, which is much higher than the Bills' 11.1 yards per return. Football Outsiders has the Bears' punt return team at 13.4 points above average, outpacing the second-place Bills' 7.1 points above average. Devin Hester has been remarkable as a punt returned, adding 3 punt return TDs to his other impressive numbers. Just don't count on him doing this well next year.

    Kick Returner: Justin Miller, New York Jets
    Although the Patriots lead in Football Outsiders statistics at 15.4 points above average, Laurence Maroney has only returned 52.8% of their kickoff returns so he's not the only one returning kicks well in New England. Justin Miller has returned 75.9% of the Patriots' kick returns, leading the Jets to 14.1 points above average. Miller has returned 2 kicks for touchdowns and has averaged 28.6 yards per return while his teammates have averaged 10.1 yards per return.

    (For comparison, Maroney averaged 28.0 yards per return while his teammates averaged 25.5 yards per return.)

    If you have any comments, suggestions, questions, complaints, etc., don't hesitate to tell me. I'm in this to learn from others as much as anything else.

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    All-Pro Team by the Statistics, Part II

    Saturday, December 30, 2006, 10:13 AM EST [General]

    Selecting the defense by statistics is much harder than the offense, but I'll try to look into the advanced stats available at Football Outsiders in much the same way I did for the offensive line. I know it isn't perfect, but it's the best information available.

    Defense

    Right Defensive End: Jason Taylor, Miami Dolphins
    Taylor has 58 tackles, 13.5 sacks, 2 INTs, 9 forced fumbles, and 11 passes defensed. Both of his interceptions were returned for TDs. Miami was also ninth in Adjusted Line Yards against Left End runs. The second most forced fumbles by a DE was 6, and the second most passes defensed by a DE was 7. Jason Taylor should be the Defensive Player of the Year.

    (Note for DTs: I was going to look at the league leaders in sacks and ALY, but I found that it often gave me guys with great DEs next to them. Instead, I largely ignored sacks to select DTs and looked at that great run defense in Minnesota.)

    Defensive Tackles: Pat Williams and Kevin Williams, Minnesota Vikings
    The Vikings ranked 1st, 1st, and 3rd in ALY on Left Tackle, Mid/Guard, and Right Tackle runs. Their dominance in the middle was just too much to overlook (or split). Pat Williams has 42 tackles, 1 sack, 1 forced fumble, and 3 passes defensed. If teams played him the way they have in the past, he probably absorbed several double teams in the process. Kevin Williams has 33 tackles, 5 sacks, 6 passes defensed, and 1 TD.

    Left Defensive End: Julius Peppers, Carolina Panthers
    Peppers has 58 tackles, 13 sacks, 3 forced fumbles, and 6 passes defensed, and the Panthers rank 8th in ALY on Right End runs. He's nowhere near the Jason Taylor level of dominance, but 13 sacks (while still defending the run) is still extraordinary.

    Right Outside Linebacker: Adalius Thomas, Baltimore Ravens
    Thomas has 81 tackles, 11 sacks, 1 INT, 5 passes defensed, 1 safety, and 1 TD. The Ravens were 13th and 5th in ALY on Left End and Left Tackle runs.

    Middle Linebacker: Zach Thomas, Miami Dolphins
    Thomas has 153 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT, 2 forced fumbles, and 8 passes defensed. He has led the Dolphins to 5th in defensive DVOA, 10th in passing DVOA, and 3rd in rushing DVOA.

    Left Outside Linebacker: Shawne Merriman, San Diego Chargers
    I couldn't find another linebacker named Thomas worth an All-Pro spot, so I went with the guy getting nearly 1.5 sacks a game. Merriman has 55 tackles, 16 sacks, 1 INT, 4 forced fumbles, and 7 passes defensed in only 11 games, and the Chargers are 3rd in ALY on Right End runs. Show me hard evidence that steroids enhance performance and might drop him from the team.

    (Note for CBs: I'm going to reference the Football Outsiders blog here at Fox Sports where they released the top ten for Stop Rate (inverse of offense's Success Rate) and Yards per Play for CBs using partial data for the first 13 weeks.)

    Cornerback: Leigh Bodden, Cleveland Browns
    Bodden was ranked 2nd in both stop rate (65%) and yards per play (4.6) after 13 weeks to go along with 31 tackles, 2 INTs, 1 forced fumble, and 13 passes defensed. He's fallen off lately due to injury, but I'm still giving him the spot.

    Cornerback: Adam "Pacman" Jones, Tennessee Titans
    Jones was ranked 1st and 8th in stop rate (65%) and yards per play (5.5). He also had 61 tackles, 1 sack, 4 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 12 passes defensed, and 1 TD. If only he'd get his act together...

    Nickelback: Richard Marshall, Carolina Panthers
    Marshall was ranked 3rd and 10th in stop rate (63%) and yards per play (5.5) to go with 76 tackles, 3 INTs, 1 forced fumble, 14 passes defensed, and 1 TD. Not bad for a rookie.

    Strong Safety: Adrian Wilson, Arizona Cardinals
    Wilson has been getting some love as the most underrated player in the NFL for a couple of years. This year, he finally made the Pro Bowl. Wilson has 82 tackles, 5 sacks, 4 INTs, 4 forced fumbles, 10 passes defensed, and 2 TDs. He's had another incredible year, to say the least.

    Free Safety: Brian Dawkins, Philadelphia Eagles
    With 95 tackles, 1 sack, 4 INTs, 5 forced fumbles, and 13 passes defensed, Dawkins has led the Eagles to 10th in defensive DVOA, 5th in passing DVOA, and 15th in rushing DVOA. At 33, Dawkins is much older than the rest of this secondary (Bodden 25, Jones 23, Marshall 22, Wilson 27). How much longer does he stay at the top of his game?

    I was originally going to stop after the offense and defense, but I think I'll be back tomorrow with the special teams.

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