Staying in the state of Florida, the Marlins' chances for the postseason first reached less than 1 in a million back on August 28th in the BP Postseason Odds Report, nearly a month and a half after the first team in this series.
The Good
Hanley Ramirez has become one of the best players in the major leagues, joining teammate Miguel Cabrera in that category, although they still might not be the best left side of the infield in their own division - thanks to the Met duo of Jose Reyes and David Wright. Jeremy Hermida has stayed healthy, which is a first at the big league level, and he's brought some of that famous minor-league OBP (.457 in AA in 2005) with him by hitting .288/.365/.496. Former Rule 5 pickup Dan Uggla has not only maintained his power from last year, he's increased it. Now if he could only find last year's batting average back...
Other than the high-profile acquisitions and failings (high-profile for the Marlins anyway) of Jorge Julio and Armando Benitez, the Marlins have been able to assemble a pretty good bullpen with Kevin Gregg collecting the saves after hard-throwing Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, Henry Owens, and Lee Gardner have pitched the middle innings.
The Bad
After Joe Girardi worked the starting rotation to the bone last season chasing after the wild card and his Manager of the Year award, the young starters have predictably fallen apart. Josh Johnson only threw 37.1 innings before undergoing Tommy John surgery to fix a torn ulnar collateral ligament. Ricky Nolasco has only thrown 55 innings due to elbow inflammation, and Anibal Sanchez only three 30 innings before undergoing shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum.
Looking to the Future
Just like the offseason before the 2006 season and the 2007 season, the Marlins need to find somebody that can handle center field on a full-time basis. After trying out guys like Reggie Abercrombie in 2006 and Alejandro De Aza this year, they keep resorting to Alfredo Amezaga, who should really be their backup utility guy. I like that they have tried out Cody Ross in center because I think he deserves a shot at a big league job, but I don't think he has the range to handle center everyday.
In addition to center field, the Marlins need to get their young arms healthy again and try to keep their current bullpen from imploding. Relievers always have the most variance in their year-to-year numbers, and it can multiply through the entire pen. (If you don't believe me, just check out the Brewers and Indians over the past several years.) If they can get full seasons from Johnson, Nolasco, and Sanchez next year, the Marlins could bounce back into contention next year. They need to because it won't be long before they no longer have Dontrelle Willis and/or Miguel Cabrera.
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