After taking a 3-1 lead, the Indians lost three straight to the Boston Red Sox, but don't worry Indians fans. Mark Shapiro and company have your team setup for the long haul.
Strengths
Most of the team's core is locked up through 2010 with C.C. Sabathia being the only exception. Sabathia will become a free agent following the 2008 season if he isn't signed to an extension before then. Victor Martinez is the key component that will be a free agent following the 2010 season. Other key guys like Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner are signed through 2012, and 2008 sensation Fausto Carmona also won't be eligible for free agency until the end of the 2012 season. Is Rafael Betancourt (and his 80/9 K/BB) a key to this team? He's a reliever, so I'd say no. If you think he is, he'll be a free agent following the 2009 season.
Outside of the core of this team, their other major strength is that there are no glaring holes on the team. Martinez shored up his defense last offseason so that teams are no longer running at will when he's behind the plate. After a miserable 2006 saw 100 of 122 would-be base stealers reach successfully (an 18.0% CS rate), he threw out 33 of 103 runners this year (a 32.0% CS rate). Their fifth infielder is Josh Barfield, who was considered one of their major additions last offseason, but after hitting .250/.278/.326 through July, he was benched in favor of Asdrubal Cabrera. If Barfield can fix his problems at the plate, the Indians could then swing a midseason trade to fix any early-season holes that crop up due to injury or poor performance. Flanking Sizemore in the outfield are Franklin Gutierrez and a platoon of Jason Michaels and David Dellucci. The two players have career lines of .287/.359/.441 against LHP and .269/.355/.464 against RHP, respectively.
The pitching staff will have Sabathia and Carmona headlining a rotation with Jake Westbrook, Paul Byrd, and Aaron Laffey filling out the 3, 4, and 5 spots. That assumes that the Indians pick up Byrd's option of $8M, which also depends on the outcome of his hGH admission (it wasn't against the rules at the time and he had a prescription, so he should be safe). Without Byrd, their in-house options are Cliff Lee, Jeremy Sowers, and Adam Miller. After missing the month of April due to injury, Lee pitched 91.2 major league innings before being demoted because of a 6.38 ERA and clubhouse problems. In 48 minor league innings, Lee had a 3.00 ERA. Coming off a 2.76 ERA over 153.2 AA innings in 2006, Miller was expected to be a late season addition to the Indians 2007 staff, but he only managed 65.1 innings at AAA with a 4.82 ERA due to right elbow inflammation in July. Minor league injury information is tough to come by, so I'm unaware of the extent of the injury. However, he is pitching in the Arizona Fall League, so that's a good sign. These backup options for the rotation could also find a spot in the bullpen, but they'll be hard to come by as Betancourt, Rafael Perez, and Jensen Lewis will all be back. In addition, Joe Borowski and Aaron Fultz have $4M and $1.5M club options for 2008. Fultz's option will most definitely be picked up, and Borowski's option isn't bad for a league average relief pitcher. That's five bullpen spots already taken, which doesn't leave a lot of room for the other guys.
Concerns
After a healthy 2007, a couple of Indians' pitchers could struggle to stay healthy in 2008. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has written about the Year-After Effect, and Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has written about a "rule of 30" based on ASMI research. Both tell the same story. If a pitcher sees a 30-inning increase in IP, the risk of injury elevates. Both Sabathia and Carmona exceeded last year's IP by at least 50. There are exceptions, but with two players on the same team, it's likely that at least one of them will suffer from the Year-After Effect.
The Indians have no holes on their roster. I know I mentioned this as a strength, but it can also be a weakness. The easiest way to add wins to a roster is by replacing a poor player with an average one (or even better, a great one). Without any holes, the Indians will be strong contenders in 2008 and beyond, but it has to be tempting to go out and get one improvement in an attempt to distance themselves from the Tigers. The easiest improvement would be to get a big bat to play one of the corners, since they don't currently have one at any of the four corner positions. However, it's hard to bring in somebody to start over Ryan Garko, Casey Blake, Gutierrez, or Michaels/Dellucci and still get your money's worth. The only big bats available on the corners are Alex Rodriguez (most likely), Mike Lowell, Barry Bonds, and Adam Dunn (possibly). I only see Lowell and Dunn as plausible choices, but imagine if Bonds played for the Indians, who would get booed more on the road: the perceived PED user (Bonds) or the guy with the positive PED test (Betancourt)?
Overall
The Indians' main goal this offseason has to be signing Sabathia to an extension, but given the workload on his arm this year, do they wait until next offseason in case he gets hurt? Given that Verducci pointed out that Sabathia was an exception before, Shapiro should try to get something done before other teams can get involved next year. The Indians don't have any needs to fill heading into the offseason, but if they want to get involved, they have some options. They could sign another big bat. They could trade one of their infielders (depending on how they or other teams feel about Barfield). No matter what they do, they'll be contenders in the AL Central again next season and should be for years to come.
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