There is a trend in the coverage of fantasy baseball that the Cubs players should expect an increase in RBIs based on their additions at the top of the lineup: Alfonso Soriano and Mark DeRosa. First of all, it should be stressed that these two players had their best years of their careers last year. Last year's numbers should not be expected to be repeated.

Using Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections (without giving away the actual premium numbers), Soriano is surprisingly expected to play at the same level in terms of his rate stats. The combination of a regression in his level of play and the improvement of hitting conditions going from RFK to Wrigley even things out in the projection. I'm not so sure about the assumed improvement in hitting conditions. As pointed out by Erik Siegrist, Soriano is well suited for RFK as is Andruw Jones. A slight regression might be in order for Soriano. Looking outside the PECOTA projection, Soriano's numbers last year were somewhat out-of-line with the rest of his career. His AVG was right in line with his career trend, but his OBP and SLG had unpredictable spikes. His career highs in both were .338 and .547. Last year, he was at .351 and .560. Having a career year at 30 isn't unheard of, but it isn't common for a player to repeat that career year a year later. He is the type of player who doesn't lose his skills quickly, but it wouldn't be wise to expect a repeat of last year. Given that, he's still a first round fantasy player.

DeRosa's PECOTA projection is just a slight reduction in production. Just like Soriano, DeRosa exceed his career highs in OBP and SLG (throwing out 2000 when he had only 13 AB) of .350 and .439. Last year, he hit .296/.357/.456. While those numbers are well above his career highs, he hadn't hit above .263 since 2002 and he's only three years removed from his 2004 .239/.293/.320 season.

With these two guys being placed at the top of the lineup in place of Juan Pierre and Neifi Perez/Todd Walker/everyone else, Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez should be given more RBI opportunities as long as Soriano isn't driving himself in all the time.

As for Michael Barrett, these RBI opportunities might not reach him. He's projected to bat 7th in their lineup after batting 3rd-6th most of last year. This alone means that his RBIs shouldn't improve from last year, and his Rs should drop. Relying on Cesar Izturis and the pitcher to drive you in is a risky proposition. Plus, he had a career year last year at 29. His previous career highs in the triple slash categories were .293/.345/.489, which were achieved in 1999 and 2004. His numbers last year were .307/.368/.517. Obviously, these numbers should not be expected this year. PECOTA projects a massive disappearance in his power numbers (projected SLG of .468), putting his numbers much more in line with his track record. These are reasons why I projected him so low in my catcher rankings. However, PECOTA does place him 5th among catches behind the elite 3 and Johjima with an increase in runs and RBIs. I probably should have left him at 6th, which is where I had him written down on paper, rather than dropping him to 10th. Things would be even better if the Cubs took advantage of his on-base ability. Baseball Musing's Lineup Analysis tool, using PECOTA projections for everyone, has him batting leadoff in 15 of their top 30 lineups, including their top two.

Here's their best projected lineup:

1. Michael Barrett
2. Aramis Ramirez
3. Mark DeRosa
4. Alfonso Soriano
5. Derrek Lee
6. Jacque Jones
7. Cliff Floyd/Matt Murton
8. Pitcher
9. Cesar Izturis

As Tony LaRussa thought, it does make sense to put the pitcher in the 8th spot because a better hitter in the 9 spot creates more run-scoring opportunities for the top of the lineup. Unfortunately, the Cubs think Izturis is worth a starting spot, which drastically minimized that ability. The above lineup is projected for 5.361 runs per game. Their actual projected lineup is at 5.115 runs per game for a difference of .246 runs per game, which doesn't look like much but .246 runs per game is nearly 40 runs a season, or 4 wins. This is one case where lineup construction could matter in terms of both actual and fantasy production.

Regarding their fantasy value, a boost in RBIs should only be expected for Lee and Ramirez. Soriano should have a decrease in RBIs because he'll now have Izturis and the pitcher in front of him, so he won't have as many RBI opportunities. Soriano, DeRosa, and Barrett should also have slight declines in actual production from their 2006 career years. The Cubs are being overrated in the fantasy community heading into spring training.