With the two behemoths at the top of the AL East, nobody gave the Orioles much of a chance, and lately, Baltimore has made an emphatic showing why by losing 18 of their last 21 since Dave Trembley was named their 2008 manager. They're statistical chances of making the playoffs ended back on August 30, according to BP's Postseason Odds Report.

The Good

Nick Markakis has continued to surprise at the major league level. After jumping to the major leagues without a full season above A-ball, Markakis slumped at the beginning of 2006 hitting .268/.335/.348 in the first half. After the slow start, Markakis broke out to the tune of .311/.364/.532 after the all-star break. He hasn't quite continued that pace in 2007 as he's hit for less power (.293/.360/.474), but that is still pretty impressive for a 23-year old. Although his rest deprivation streak ended due to a fractured forearm, Miguel Tejada has continued to age well despite a continued loss in power. Tejada's slugging percentages have dropped each of the last three years going from .534 in 2004 to .515 in 2005, .498 in 2006, and .461 this year. Despite this loss in power, Tejada continues to be one of the better hitting shortstops. Across the field from Tejada, Brian Roberts has proven to be one of the best second baseman in the game as he's upped his OBP from .347 in 2006 to .381 this year. He probably will never regain that power from the beginning of 2005, but he's a star without it.

On the hill, the Orioles have experienced two breakouts in Erik Bedard and Jeremy Guthrie. Bedard would have a shot at the strikeout title if he wasn't recently shut down for the season. Although he won't win any awards, Bedard has increased his strikeout rate while maintaining his home run and walk rates from last year. Guthrie has been a major surprise to both the Orioles and the Indians. Back in January, the Indians designated Guthrie for assignment and he was picked up by the Orioles. The Indians had given him shots each of the last years (granted, they weren't extended shots), and he has failed to produce each time. At 27 (now 28), the Indians decided to cut bait. With the Orioles, Guthrie simply managed a 3.65 ERA over 170.1 innings.

The Bad

The Orioles have been accused of ignoring the hitter spots in the field for years, and it was never more evident than their 2007 left fielders. Jay Gibbons, recently mentioned in the Signature Pharmacy investigation for having received hGH and steroid shipments, and Jay Payton have been terrible at the plate with .230/.274/.348 and .251/.289/.351 lines, respectively. With the way that they've sacrificed the corner infield and corner outfield positions over the years, the Orioles haven't been able to capitalize on one of the best hitting double play tandems in the game.

After misjudging the market last year, the Orioles transitioned to spending their free agent money on "proven" bullpen arms. They would have been better off investing the money elsewhere. Teams need to start to realize that they don't have to meet the owner's budget every year. If there isn't anyone available at your price this year, wait until next year. You should have a close enough relationship with ownership to make this possible, but I digress. The relievers that were brought in have combined for an ERA of 4.22 at a combined cost of $11M - not exactly smart spending there. They could have found 4 minor league relievers that would combine for an ERA of 4.22 for ~$1.5M.

In addition to their bullpen free agent failings, the Orioles spent $14.5M on 10.1 innings from Jaret Wright and Kris Benson. Wright has yet to make 15 starts in consecutive seasons since 1999. Why anyone thought he was a wise investment is beyond me. Likewise, trading John Maine (and Jorge Julio) for Benson has proven to be regrettable.

Looking Forward

In their division with the Red Sox and Yankees always fielding great teams and a team on the rise in the form of the Devil Rays, it might be best for the Orioles to blow this thing up. Unfortunately for them, only Brian Roberts and Miguel Tejada would get them much in return as trading Markakis or Bedard would just defeat the purpose. For the Orioles to ever compete, they need to stop blowing money on mediocre free agents and concentrate on building up that minor league system. Without inexpensive top-tier talent being pumped through the system, it is nearly impossible for a team to compete. They are on the right track with the drafting of Matt Wieters, but they need to do more to become a contender year-in and year-out.