Now that the trade deadline has passed, let's assign grades to each team for their in-season moves (April through today).

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - A

Acquired 1B Mark Teixeira for 1B Casey Kotchman and RHP Steve Marek

Oakland Athletics - B

Signed DH Frank Thomas

Acquired RHP Sean Gallagher, C Josh Donaldson, 2B/LF Eric Patterson, and OF Matt Murton for RHPs Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin

Acquired 2B Adrian Cardenas, LHP Josh Outman, and OF Matt Spencer for Joe Blanton

Like Billy Beane, I believe that you're either contending or you're rebuilding. You can't do both at the same time. I would have probably gone the other way and chose to contend, but if you're going to go the rebuilding route, at least they didn't hold anything back.

 

Toronto Blue Jays - D

Released DH Frank Thomas

They had no reason to cut Frank Thomas. He wasn't doing well to start the year, but it's not like they had a better alternative on their roster. It's also disappointing they weren't able to move any of their spare parts at the deadline. A.J. Burnett's contract is a poison pill. If he stays healthy, he's probably going to opt for free agency at the end of the season. If he gets hurt, you're on the hook for the next two years at $12 million each. They also had Gregg Zaun and David Eckstein come up in rumors. I don't know if these guys will be Type-B free agents or not, but my guess is not. If that is correct, there's no reason these guys shouldn't have been moved for something, anything.

 

Cleveland Indians - A-

Acquired OF Matt LaPorta, LHP Zach Jackson, RHP Rob Bryson, and PTBNL for LHP CC Sabathia

Acquired C Carlos Santana and RHP Jonathan Meloan for 3B Casey Blake and about $2 million

Acquired RHP Anthony Reyes for RHP Luis Perdomo

While there were many different takes on the Sabathia deal, I think it was a good move by the Indians. It could have been better if they had waited and let teams bid up the price, but LaPorta is most likely going to be better than the two draft picks they would have gotten from Sabathia's free agent compensation. While I like the acquisition of LaPorta, I love the Casey Blake deal. Blake would have probably been gone in the offseason, and the Indians would have gotten a compensation sandwich pick. Both of the players they got are better than that sandwich pick.

 

Seattle Mariners - D+

Signed C Kenji Johjima to a 3-year, $16.5 million extension

Acquired RHP Gaby Hernandez for LHP Arthur Rhodes

At the time of the Johjima extension, the Mariners were still in the playoff race and Jeff Clement was still in the minors. With Clement being highly regarded by scouts and continuing to pound down the door to the majors, it was clear that Johjima was just holding the starting catcher spot for Clement. There was no reason to sign him to an extension. If you had known that Johjima was going to be terrible all season back in April, that's just one more reason to not sign him to an extension. The Rhodes deal is just your typical left-handed reliever being moved at the deadline. I have no idea why Jose Vidro is still around; if his vesting option for 2009 vests, it is just terrible management. If Raul Ibanez is a potential type-A free agent, I can see why he didn't get traded. The Mariners would have had to get something better than the two draft picks, but other teams wouldn't want to give up that much to get Ibanez. Even considering that, Jayson Stark mentioned that the Mariners' trade demands were "outrageous." They should still be able to pass Jarrod Washburn through waivers and move him, but I have my doubts about the same being possible with Adrian Beltre.

 

Baltimore Orioles - C-

The Orioles made no big moves, but they didn't really have to make any. Kevin Millar and Jay Payton are free agents after the year, but are they really of interest to any of the contenders? It could be argued that they should have traded George Sherrill at the top of his value, but the rumors suggest that other teams were making offers as if he is your typical left-handed middle reliever. That makes sense since he's not really anything more than a typical left-handed middle reliever masquerading as a closer. Aubrey Huff, Ramon Hernandez, Melvin Mora, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Sherrill probably won't be around on the next contender in Baltimore, but they're all under contract for next year. That means they should be working the phones in the offseason to see if they can turn their mediocre veterans into something of future value. If they don't start to do something, Nick Markakis might be a free agent before the Orioles become a playoff team.

 

Texas Rangers - C

The Rangers went into the trade deadline with a surplus of catching, and they came out without making any moves. That's okay, since they're all going to be around for a while. Gerald Laird is under team control through 2010, while Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Max Ramirez, and Taylor Teagarden all have through at least 2013. They've got time to make their moves. Hank Blalock and Michael Young also came up in trade rumors. Young is a bit of a surprise, but his contract does get ridiculous starting next year. From 2009 to 2013, Young will be paid $16 million a season. For comparison, PECOTA profiles him as worth $35 million over that time frame. That's an excess of $45 million he's owed. In addition to Blalock and Young, it would have been nice to see Milton Bradley get moved. Given what they had to move outside the catchers, it just wasn't likely to see anything get done.

 

Tampa Bay Rays - C+

Exercised the 2009 option on LF Carl Crawford's contract; the option was worth $8.25 million with a $2.5 million buyout

Declined the 2009 option on OF Rocco Baldelli's contract; the option was worth $6 million with a $4 million buyout

Signed RHP Dan Wheeler to a 3-year $10.5 million extension through 2010 with a $4 million club option for 2011 ($1 million buyout)

Some people are upset that the Rays didn't make a move to enhance their postseason chances in 2008, but I wonder something along the lines of what Derek Jacques suggested in the Baseball Prospectus Roundtable. Since they're so loaded with prospects, were teams asking for more from the Rays than they were from other teams in hope that they would cave under pressure to contend now? Regarding the contracts done on April 1st, the Rays might have changed their mind about the Rocco Baldelli option decision. At the time, nobody knew if he'd be able to come back from mitochondrial disease and play again, so it was an easy decision to decline the option. With Rocco nearing his return to the majors, he might be worth that option. While he's probably not going to be worth $6 million next year, you're already on the hook for $4 million of it. Is he worth having on the roster for $2 million? That answer might be different than it was on April 1st.

 

Boston Red Sox - B-

Acquired LF Jason Bay for LF Manny Ramirez, RHP Craig Hansen, OF Brandon Moss, and $7 million

This is one trade where I disagree with a lot of people. The difference between the 2008 version of Manny Ramirez and the 2008 version of Jason Bay just isn't that much. WARP has it at 0.5 wins. When you add in that Bay is under contract for 2009 at $7.5 million, going from Ramirez to Bay is an upgrade. Was that upgrade worth Hansen, Moss, and a lot of cold hard cash? Probably not, but I think the Red Sox just felt that Ramirez had to go. Don't get me wrong; Hansen and Moss were never going to be worth much to the Red Sox, but they still had value. For 2008, the Red Sox got slightly worse. For 2009, this was a great move.

 

Kansas City Royals - C

Jose Guillen and his contract were unlikely to be wanted by other teams, but there were others that could have been traded. Mark Grudzielanek, Ron Mahay, and Miguel Olivo would have made sense to move. There probably wasn't much interest in Grudzielanek, but Mahay and Olivo definitely generated some rumors. Mahay and Olivo are under team control for 2009, so the urgency to move them just wasn't there.

 

Detroit Tigers - C

Acquired RHP Kyle Farnsworth for C Ivan Rodriguez

The Tigers were in a tough situation this trade deadline. Their chances at the postseason aren't that great (currently 6 GB of the White Sox and Twins), but they spent the offseason mortgaging the future for 2008. They were all-in before the season even began. Having already moved their top prospects in the offseason, they had nothing left to trade for in-season help. They did the best they could by sending Pudge to the Yankees for Farnsworth. They aren't losing much by using Brandon Inge behind the plate in Rodriguez's stead while adding another flamethrower to their bullpen. Not a bad move, but not really an impact one either.

 

Minnesota Twins - D

Recalled LHP Francisco Liriano from AAA Rochester; Designated RHP Livan Hernandez for assignment

Livan Hernandez proved that he wasn't worth keeping in the rotation over a month ago, but the Twins refused to make a move. That was okay at the time because Liriano was coming off consecutive outings where he gave up 5 runs in 5 IP and 5 runs in 5.1 IP. With Liriano not yet ready to return to the majors, it was acceptable to keep giving the ball to Hernandez. After Livan gave up 6 runs in 4.1 IP on July 9th, it should have been time to make this move. Prior to Livan's next start on July 19th, Liriano had given up 1 run in his last 28 IP. Instead, Liriano got two more minor league starts. So what changed since July 19th, the trade deadline passed and the Twins found that nobody would trade for Hernandez. Wasn't that known two weeks ago though?

On the no-trade front, it should have been pretty easy for the Twins to make upgrades. The exciting Carlos Gomez isn't putting any runs on the scoreboard by hitting .257/.289/.353, but he is leading the team in at-bats. Plus, Brendan Harris has 336 at-bats while hitting .262/.321/.381. It's hard for defense to make up for those numbers, but it's not hard to improve your team when you have two guys hitting like that.

 

Chicago White Sox - I

Acquired OF Ken Griffey, Jr. and ~$4 million for RHP Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar

I give this one an incomplete because it's going to depend on how Ozzie Guillen sets up his lineups. If they follow through on their promise to Griffey and play him every day in center field, it's possible that this trade actually makes them worse. If they quickly realize what everyone else has - that Griffey can't play center anymore - Griffey could be a nice platoon partner for Paul Konerko at first base. For this trade to improve the White Sox, it's going to take convincing Griffey that he should play first. Given how long it took the Reds to move Griffey to right, that will probably take too long.

 

New York Yankees - B-

Signed 1B Richie Sexson

Acquired OF Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte for RHPs Jeff Karstens, Daniel McCutchen, Ross Ohlendorf, and OF Jose Tabata

Acquired C Ivan Rodriguez for RHP Kyle Farnsworth

I'm sure there are a lot of people upset with the Yankees' unwillingness to trade away their farm system for a better shot at the 2008 playoffs, but Brian Cashman has a plan. He was able to pull off some minor moves without giving up much, but the big question is do they have enough to make the playoffs? I don't think so, but it's going to be close.

I'm watching the Indians-Twins game. In the bottom of the third, Carlos Gomez led off with a bunt single. Denard Span followed with a bunt single of his own. With runners on first and second, Nick Punto dropped down a sacrifice bunt and was barely thrown out at first. One of the Twins' announcers exclaimed, "It's almost like they hit three home runs in a row."

What?

Mr. Twins Announcer, there's one big difference between three bunts in a row and three home runs in a row. The one series of events creates three runs and no outs; the other leaves runners on second and third with one out and no runs.

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For the record, they scored one run in the inning.

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Added on August 2nd: The run expectancy after these three bunts is 1.4. Since the run expectancy at the start of the inning is 0.5, the three straight bunts in this example actually had less value than a solo home run.

With the non-waiver trading deadline fast approaching, rumors are abound. Will the Red Sox swap out Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay? Will the Marlins actually acquire Manny? Are the Rockies living in a dream world where they can win 21 of 22 again? Why doesn't anyone want Adam Dunn?

After the trade deadline, players can still be moved as long as they pass through waivers first, which brings me to a question. Consider a player with a no-trade clause. If he gets waived by his team, claimed by another, and the two teams work out a trade, he can veto the trade. What happens if he gets waived, claimed, and his team decides to let him go? He's not being traded, so can he still veto the deal?

I realize this probably would never happen, but anything's possible.

Coming into the season, there was a lot of evidence that Andy LaRoche was ready to step forward into a starting job at 3B. Heading into the season, LaRoche's PECOTA projection said that he was ready to be an everyday player. Back on February 1, Kevin Goldstein said in his Top 11 Prospects series, "Almost everyone believes LaRoche is ready to be an everyday player except the Dodgers." In spring training, he got hurt, and Blake DeWitt came out of nowhere to put up good numbers for the months of April and May (mostly just May). Before LaRoche returned to the majors, he hit .318/.400/.364 in 22 ABs in AA and .267/.444/.414 in 116 ABs in AAA. Since his call-up in June, he has yet to be given a chance to claim the starting 3B spot as he's only started back-to-back games once, which brings me back to Kevin Goldstein's statement prior to the season. Why don't the Dodgers think LaRoche can play every day in the major leagues?

On top of his lack of a chance at the starting job, Ned Colletti has stated that he's looking for a run-producing third baseman. Can't you at least give LaRoche a shot before you look outside the organization? Sure, he's hitting .174/.283/.326 in 46 ABs, but that's what happens to a young player when he doesn't play. Once again, let me mention that he's started back-to-back games only once in the last six weeks. When you get deeper into the data, you see that he's walked more than he's struck out, which indicates that he's showing good plate discipline and not being overmatched at the plate. You also see that his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is only .158. It's been found that BABIP correlates well with the player's line drive rate (expected BABIP = LD% + .120). LaRoche's line drive rate is 15.4%, which means that his expected BABIP is .274. If you raise his BABIP to what it should be expected to be going forward, his line goes from .174/.283/.326 to .261/.358/.413. That's still not great for a third baseman, but it's also assuming the additional hits that fall in are all singles. It's enough to suggest that LaRoche deserves a shot at the starting job.

If the Dodgers want to acquire a "run-producing third baseman," they can do that, but in the meantime, at least make sure he's not already in your organization. It's time to give Andy LaRoche a shot.

The Houston Astros are 12 GB of the Cubs in the division and 10 GB of the Cardinals in the Wild Card. To make matters worse, the Astros would have to pass four teams to claim the division and six teams to claim the Wild Card. They've been outscored on the season by 49 runs, and they've actually outperformed their underlying metrics. According to the postseason odds report at Baseball Prospectus, their chances of making the playoffs are less than one percent. So why are they trying to improve their 2008 team?

Sometimes, teams make decisions that defy logic. While it's possible that the Astros can come back and make the playoffs, it's highly unlikely. For that reason, the Astros would be better off playing for 2009, or are they?

Ages 27, 28, and 29 are generally considered players' prime years. On the Astros' current roster, there are only five guys in their pre-prime years: Wesley Wright, J.R. Towles, Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Oscar Villarreal. If the Astros keep their current roster around for 2009, they can be expected to be even worse than they are in 2008. To compete in 2009, they'd probably have to bring in a new outfielder to replace Bourn and a couple of starting pitchers. With that being unlikely, that leaves the Astros with two options: play for 2008 or Billy Beane the roster.

In situations like this, I'd rather see the team follow in the footsteps of Billy Beane and blow up the roster, but that's not completely possible. Lance Berkman, Roy Oswalt, and Carlos Lee have full no-trade clauses through 2010, 2011, and 2012, respectively. With those no-trade clauses, the Astros can't enter complete rebuilding mode. Since they're unlikely to contend in 2008 or 2009 and they can't enter rebuilding mode, the Astros are in no man's land. So what are the Astros to do?

In my opinion, they should sell off what they can: infielders Miguel Tejada, Ty Wigginton, Kazuo Matsui, and Mark Loretta and pitchers Jose Valverde and Doug Brocail. Once those players go, you might be able to convince Berkman, Oswalt, and Lee to waive their no-trade clauses. This is the only way I see the Astros reviving their franchise and building something special.