As you can see, I decided to sit down and write out the NL East version tonight. As you'll soon find out, I'm not very impressed with the offseason moves in the NL East. I think every single one except the Nationals has taken a step back. Maybe I'll be proven wrong once the season starts.

Atlanta Braves - Earlier this week, the Braves finally found a replacement for Andruw Jones in CF. However, Mark Kotsay is only half of a replacement. When Kotsay isn't playing, who's going to take his place? The Braves are hoping that Kotsay can stay healthy until Jordan Schafer is ready to take his place. Other than coming up with creative solutions for Kotsay's inevitable injury, the Braves need to try to ink Mark Teixeira to an extension. He'll probably wait for free agency at the end of the season, but it's worth a shot.

Florida Marlins - The Marlins just signed their most expensive player on the '08 roster: Mark Hendrickson. Let me repeat that: a one-year, $1.5M contract is currently the most expensive contract on the roster. The only other player making over $1M is Andrew Miller. Only Kevin Gregg, Alfredo Amezaga, and Sergio Mitre are arbitration-eligible with a shot at joining them. Since they probably weren't going to win the division either this year or next, I don't blame them for trading away their two best players, but isn't this a bit ridiculous? Anyway, my only suggestion for them is to start Cameron Maybin at AAA. I know he's their best center fielder, but he still needs some developmental work in the minors. Plus, his service clock will move a little slower this way. Once he's proven he can hit AAA pitching, bring him up. In the meantime, put Cody Ross in center and close your eyes when the other team hits a fly ball.

New York Mets - Aside from dumping Guillermo Mota on the Brewers and Lastings Milledge on the Nationals, the Mets' biggest move was signing Luis Castillo to a four-year deal. Good luck with that. I'm not a fan of their offseason moves to this point. I liked trading Mota for Johnny Estrada, but then they non-tendered him. Trading a potential star in Milledge for an okay Brian Schneider and a good yet past-his-prime Ryan Church just screams that they don't think Milledge's personality will make it in a big market. Even if that's the case, couldn't you have waited for a better offer? Moving past that, do they have enough starting pitching? Will Pedro Martinez and Orlando Hernandez stay healthy? Will Oliver Perez remain effective? Will Mike Pelfrey and Philip Humber step up to claim the fifth spot and provide insurance against one of the other rotation members? That's a lot of question marks. With the pending return of Duaner Sanchez, the signing of Matt Wise, and most of last year's bullpen returning, the Mets should consider moving Aaron Heilman back to a starting role. All considered though, they still have a strong shot at winning the division.

Philadelphia Phillies - Rightfully, the Phillies recognized that Jayson Werth can't hit righties well (.249/.342/.408 career), but is Geoff Jenkins worth a two-year deal? Jenkins only hit righties to the tune of .262/.326/.482 last year. Kenny Lofton will surely only get a one-year deal for less money, and he hit righties for a .313/.386/.452 line. In addition, he won't strangely start appearing in the lineup against lefties like Jenkins tends to do, and he provides more than Jenkins - other than starting and pinch hitting against righties, Lofton can pinch run and give Shane Victorino an off-day in center every once in a while. If Charlie Manuel can keep Jenkins on the bench against lefties, then it won't be too bad of a signing, but I have my doubts. Of course, they have also not fixed the 3B spot. There are a few options out on the trade market, but Joe Crede would be my choice. He's got back problems, but he could rediscover his power swing and then some in Citizens Bank Park. As for the future, Philly fans won't like this, but they should try to sign Pat Burrell to an extension. He's not liked, but he has been very consistently good the last three years: .389, .388, and .400 in OBP and .504, .504, and .502 in SLG. The Phillies need to be playing for it all each of the next three years. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Burrell are already 28, 29, 29, and 31, respectively. That's prime/post-prime for all four. It's basically now or never.

Washington Nationals - The Nationals have done a good job of acquiring top-of-the-line talent this offseason. Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes have a lot of potential, but it has been well-documented that their behavior hasn't quite risen to the levels their previous employers expected. Unfortunately, the Nationals need to become a little more diverse in their talent. Among their hitting talent, they have a great, young third baseman in Ryan Zimmerman, an 18-year old shortstop prospect in Esmailyn Gonzalez, and quite a bit of talent in the outfield. The Nationals have come pretty far from when they were in the hands of MLB, but they still have a lot of ground to cover. Their major trade chip right now is Chad Cordero. As he'll be a free agent after the '09 season, he might as well be traded sooner rather than later. Luis Ayala shouldn't be far behind either. The Nats also have a lot of players coming back from injury that once healthy, could spark a few trades. When Nick Johnson is healthy, either he or Dmitri Young could be traded. If Cristian Guzman can come back healthy and productive, he should be traded. With Wily Mo Pena, Milledge, and Dukes on the roster, I thought that would make Austin Kearns expendable, but Wily Mo actually becomes a free agent first. If Wily Mo can get on base enough to warrant another team wanting to make him a starter on their team, he should be the expendable outfielder. Overall, the Nationals are in a strange place - they don't have the talent to compete now, they don't have many significant major league players under team control past 2009 (Jesus Flores, Zimmerman, Dukes, Milledge, Kearns, and Jon Rauch), and they don't have many prospects ready to graduate to the majors. Sometimes, it's a long trip from the basement, but at least you can see that a plan is in place and incremental progress is being made.

---

Once again, thanks to Cot's Baseball Contracts for the contract info, and I hope to post the NL Central write-up sometime this weekend.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - The AL West is the Angels' to lose until Vladimir Guerrero's and John Lackey's current contracts expire, which is either at the end of this year or next (club options). Barring injury, Vlad and Lackey are worth the $15M and $9M they're owed by picking up the options, so the Angels should extend their current reign as champions for at least two more seasons. That doesn't mean they should sit on their hands until spring training starts, does it? Actually, I don't see any holes they need to fix, and only Garret Anderson, Juan Rivera, Jon Garland, Francisco Rodriguez, and Darren Oliver are free agents after the year. They could try to sign Garland and Rodriguez to extensions, but Garland is replaceable and Rodriguez's mechanics are awful in terms of injury risk. Without Garland, the Angels would still have Lackey, Kelvim Escobar, Jered Weaver, Joe Saunders, Ervin Santana, Nick Adenhart, and Dustin Moseley to fill out the 2009 rotation. I don't think they'd be hurting with 5 of those guys filling out a rotation.

Oakland Athletics - After the Dan Haren trade, Billy Beane was quoted as saying, "You have a chance to do something special or you have a chance to create something special, but to be in between is not a place we wanted to be." I couldn't agree more. The Athletics weren't going to be able to compete with the Angels unless everyone stayed healthy, and the chances of that happening were pretty close to zero. I'm not as big a fan of the Nick Swisher trade, but that's because he's signed for relatively cheap through 2011 with a cheap club option for 2012. They've restocked the farm system well, so who gets traded next? It's rumored to be Joe Blanton. I'm skeptical to the fact that they need to trade Blanton (he's not a free agent until the 2010-2011 offseason), but if the Reds' rumor of Homer Bailey and another prospect for Blanton is true, I'd do it. The next to go would probably be Eric Chavez, Alan Embree, or Justin Duchscherer. If Bobby Crosby or Rich Harden could ever stay healthy, they shouldn't be far behind. It's rebuilding mode; it's not fun for the fans, but it's the right thing to do.

Seattle Mariners - Like the Toronto Blue Jays, the Mariners are in a spot where you'd like them to play for the future, but the current state of the roster forces them to go for it now. Kenji Johjima, Richie Sexson, and Raul Ibanez are free agents after the season. I've got two suggestions for the Mariners right now. First, bench Jose Vidro in favor of Wladimir Balentien at DH. Vidro had a .775 OPS last year, which doesn't cut it for a DH. Plus, that's with a high BABIP of .342, which should probably approach his line drive rate expected BABIP of .315 next year. Trading for him and making him DH last year wasn't a good idea, and it's still not a good idea to make him a DH. Meanwhile, Balentien had an .868 OPS at AAA last year. Second, start Jeff Clement at AAA coming out of spring training. If he continues to mash and improve his defense, trade Johjima to help the club in some other area - 5th starter, bullpen help, second baseman... Although you're playing for now, that doesn't mean you have to avoid starting the prospects not named Adam Jones.

Texas Rangers - The Rangers cleared house last year by trading Eric Gagne and Mark Teixeira. In return, they got a few high-upside but extremely young prospects, who won't be ready for at least a few years. During the offseason, they were able to get a couple of actual outfielders in Milton Bradley and Josh Hamilton, which is a plus. Since Michael Young has no-trade protection, Kevin Millwood is the only real commodity they could try to trade. Millwood has a limited no-trade clause, but everyone needs starting pitching, right?

---

I've forgotten to do this the last two times, but I'd like to thank Cot's Baseball Contracts for his outstanding information regarding player contracts.

Obviously by now, you've noticed that I didn't get the AL West piece up yesterday. Hopefully, I'll get that finished either Monday or Tuesday. Today, I want to go back to the player valuation model I talked about in November.

Back in November, I wrote a couple posts where I used a model based on Nate Silver's work in Baseball Between the Numbers. The first was an attempt to estimate Alex Rodriguez's value to each team, and the second was an evaluation of the MVP award. Soon after, I was pointed in the direction of Vince Gennaro's article doing basically the same thing, only better. At that point, I added his book Diamond Dollars to my list of books to read. I finally bought it and have started reading it. I must say that if you have any interest in his player valuation, sabermetrics, sports business, economics, etc., you should read his book.

One of the things I've learned from the book plays directly into what I wrote about the Blue Jays and completely pushes me in the one direction. When a team wins fewer games than they expected, the amount of revenue each player brings in for the club is lower than expected, which means that the team is probably paying recent free agent acquisitions more than each of them is generating in revenue. That is a pretty obvious statement, but one I had overlooked. Due to the Blue Jays' commitments to several of their players, they need to play for 2008 to keep those players' value to the club up. If they don't play for now, those contracts will all end up on the negative side of the marginal revenue/marginal cost ledger, which means they need to trade for an impact player. No, trading Troy Glaus for Scott Rolen does not count. I consider that a backwards move. I'd rather have Glaus for 2008 (player option for 2009) than Rolen for 2008, 2009, and 2010.

That lesson can be summed up by saying:

"If you're on the fence of whether or not a team should play for this year or the future, look at the team's current contracts. If they've got a lot of money already invested, play for now."

That's not to say that a team destined to be below .500 with a lot of money invested should play for now. At that point, they're sunk costs, and no amount of additional spending will change that. It's only when you're on the fence.

Moving on to the AL Central, it was thought that 2008 and beyond would be a battle between the Indians and Tigers, but there has been some considerable movement in the division with more to come. The Tigers jumped out ahead with their acquisition of Miguel Cabrera, and the White Sox have forced their way back into the picture, but what should Central teams do going forward?

Chicago White Sox - Their acquisitions of Orlando Cabrera, Carlos Quentin, and Nick Swisher have changed up their positional outlook this offseason. Without left field as a possible destination to the loser of the 3B battle between Joe Crede and Josh Fields, the White Sox need to find a taker for Crede. Of course, this requires him to prove that he's healthy and his swing is back. For the White Sox, they hope that he can do that in spring training. In addition, Juan Uribe is now their backup shortstop. Looking around the league, there are a few teams with worse starting shortstops, making him another piece of trade bait. In return, the White Sox could use some bullpen help. A free agent SP wouldn't be a bad idea either. Nothing against John Danks and Gavin Floyd, but would you trust both to hold their spot in the rotation when your competitors are the Tigers and Indians? Of course, your options are limited, but when you paint yourself into a corner like the White Sox have (not a strong pick to win the division and a weak farm system), what would you expect?

Cleveland Indians - Coming off their ALCS appearance, only Kenny Lofton isn't back with the team, but it's disappointing that they haven't brought in something more than Masahide Kobayashi. Three of their corners are manned by Casey Blake, Jason Michaels/David Dellucci, and Franklyn Gutierrez. Their up-the-middle players are strong offensively, but they could use some help from the spots that are your traditional offensive players. There were some rumors they were looking to acquire Jason Bay, but the only free agent that would be an improvement is Barry Bonds. I don't see that happening. Moving elsewhere, the Indians are trying to re-sign C.C. Sabathia, and well, they should be. Sabathia is the only member of their core that is a free agent before the end of the 2010 season. Talk about being set up well for the next few years - young team coming off an ALCS appearance with only one potentially major free agent loss before 2011.

Detroit Tigers - The Tigers shocked quite a few people with their aggressiveness at the winter meetings. They got two years of both Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for less than the rumored deals for one year of Johan Santana. With the prior trade for Edgar Renteria, the Tigers are pretty much set for 2008. Brandon Inge is an interesting trade chip, and they could use another arm for the bullpen, but does anyone still consider Inge a major-league starter at 3B? I don't think so, which leaves signing players to extensions. The only guy I'd consider that with is Miguel Cabrera, but are you really sure whether he'll be a 3B or a 1B in two years? I think that question mark is enough to postpone extension talks to next offseason.

Kansas City Royals - You can start to see their 2010 team coming together here if you squint hard enough. Alberto Callaspo at 2B, Alex Gordon at 3B, Jose Guillen in LF, David DeJesus in CF, Mark Teahen in RF, Billy (edited) Butler at DH, Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, Kyle Davies, Luke Hochevar in the rotation, and Joakim Soria at closer. I don't agree fully with the methods they're using - Guillen for $12M per year, really? - but at least there's a long-term plan in place. That's better than some organizations. The only suggestion I have for this offseason is to trade Brian Bannister. His value won't get any higher, and in the end, he's nothing more than back of the rotation filler (4.2 K/9).

Minnesota Twins - With the loss of Torii Hunter and the improvements made by the Tigers, White Sox, and Indians (young team with another year of experience), the Twins need to make a Johan Santana deal and a Joe Nathan deal. Given the rumors, they agree on the Santana front and used to agree on the Nathan front. I haven't heard many Nathan rumors lately. If Mike Cuddyer is having a good year at the trade deadline, they could look into trading him as well. He's a free agent after the '09 season, and it's not like the Twins will jump back to the top of the division in 2009 with Santana and Nathan in the rear-view mirror.

---

I think I'll be back here Saturday with the AL West. We'll see.

 

It's been a while since I posted anything here. In fact, we were talking about the MVP award back then. In the mean time, a lot has happened on the transaction front. I've caught myself up, and now, I'd like to offer my opinions on what each team should do going forward. We'll start with the AL East.

Baltimore Orioles - The Miguel Tejada trade signified that they were entering full-scale rebuilding mode, and given the state of their team and those of their division rivals, this should have been done years ago. With the Red Sox set up so well for the next few years, the Yankees not far behind, and the Rays on the way up, the Orioles probably need to set a target data of 2011, which means that 2B Brian Roberts and LHP Erik Bedard make great trade chips right now. When midseason rolls around and teams are looking for bullpen help, the O's should come to the table with Danny Baez, Jamie Walker, and Chad Bradford. [Edit: Baez will most likely miss the 2008 season after elbow surgery.] Of course, all of these trade dumps need to be made with rebuilding the farm system as the goal.

Boston Red Sox - As mentioned above, the Red Sox are set up really well for the next few years. Jason Varitek and Curt Schilling are the only starters that are guaranteed free agents before the end of the 2010 season. Of course, Manny Ramirez can be granted free agency either of the next two offseasons. The Red Sox hold club options for 2009 and 2010 at $20M each. Given the dollar amount, I'd suggest looking into signing Manny to an extension, but he is coming off a pretty mediocre 2007. Let him prove he's still got the power in 2008. If you can't reach an extension next offseason, exercise the first $20M option (is a one-year $20M deal really that risky anymore?). Repeat.

New York Yankees - Coming off last season, there was quite a bit of uncertainty with the Yankees. Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte, and Roger Clemens were all free agents. Four were re-signed, and Yankees' fans nationwide gave out a collective sigh of relief. The Yankees are set up for another postseason run in 2008, but they might want to call up the Orioles and see if any of their relievers are currently available. In preparation for the future, Jason Giambi, Bobby Abreu, Pettitte, Mike Mussina, and Carl Pavano are free agents after the season. Maybe Abreu (and Pavano?) warrant extension talk right now, but given their ages, I'd be willing to hold off until next offseason.

Tampa Bay Rays - Do I think they're ready to compete for a playoff spot in 2008? No, but 2009 might not be out of the question. Most of their position players arrived last year, and 3B Evan Longoria will be joining them this spring, and the rest of their rotation should be joining them soon. For now, sit tight, watch the youngsters, and get excited for the future.

Toronto Blue Jays - Toronto is one of a few MLB teams where I just look at their roster and go, "What's going on here? Could they get any more middle-of-the-pack? Where are the impact players?" Coming back down to earth, Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, and Alex Rios do all have the ability to make an impact on offense, but Glaus has injury questions and Wells completely fell apart last year. Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett can make an impact in the rotation, but they have each had their injury concerns in the past. The real question comes down to this: "When you're projected for third in the division, have no large holes to fill to make up the ground, and have several (not young) guys under contract for a few more years, what do you do?" I think it's hard to say "blow the whole thing up" when you're this close. The only sure-fire way I see to improve the team for 2008 is to find the largest (and easiest) hole to fill and get a star-caliber player. I think that means replacing Matt Stairs, Reed Johnson, and Adam Lind in left with someone. Jason Bay wasn't a star last year, but he's a guy worth taking a chance on in this situation (he's also Canadian if that means anything to MLB's Canadian Representative). I'm not sure who they give up for him, but the only other option for a star-caliber LF is that 43-year old HR king involved in a criminal trial.

---

I'll be back either tomorrow or Thursday with the AL Central.