The NL West quite possibly has the most up-and-coming stars in the major leagues, which should make it fun to watch for years to come.
Arizona Diamondbacks - I love the Dan Haren trade for the Diamondbacks. They gave up a lot of their farm system, but the Diamondbacks should be contenders for the division title through 2010 when Haren and staff ace Brandon Webb become free agents (among others). This was a last piece of the puzzle type of move. Unfortunately, their divisional opponents could force them to make another one next year (this particular puzzle grows over time). In the Jose Valverde trade, Chris Burke was one of the players Arizona acquired. He's been expected to start producing each of the last three years, but it hasn't happened. Consider me one of the doubters: the Diamondbacks should talk to Orlando Hudson about an extension immediately. Coming into spring training, Chad Tracy is on the outside looking in at a corner infield job. If he proves healthy, he could get something in trade, but the Diamondbacks don't have any holes on the current roster. Until they have an injury that creates a hole, Bob Melvin can use Tracy, Mark Reynolds, and Conor Jackson to man first and third. Tracy can fill in for one of them against righties and serve as insurance in case either of them struggle early on.
Colorado Rockies - Two weeks ago, I sat down and went through the team rosters and contracts. Back then, I wrote down on the Rockies that they should sign Marcus Giles in case Ian Stewart cannot move to second base. It's too bad that I can no longer say that with any substantial proof. Now that they have Giles, it's like they have two possible solutions instead of one: Stewart might be able to play second and Giles might re-learn how to hit. If neither works out, they still have the same fall-back plan - Omar Quintanilla. Moving forward to their other weak spot, Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales burst onto the scene late last season, but neither are completely ready to handle a full-season big league job. Both have struggled with limiting walks to their opponents. Jimenez walked 5.42 per 9 at AAA and 4.06 per 9 in the majors; Morales walked 4.23 per 9 at AA, 6.88 per 9 at AAA, and 3.20 per in the majors. While Morales was able to take a major step forward in that department in the majors, it was in a limited sample size of only 39.1 innings. To me, it seems like those two can be counted to fill one rotation spot. Which one fills that spot is up in the air. Just in case, I'd like to see Taylor Buchholz given a chance to win a spot in the rotation. The Rockies need Morales and Jimenez to develop correctly because the pitchers' 2009 - 2013 is more important that 2008. Hopefully, that is the reasoning behind wasting $4M on Kip Wells and Mark Redman. If Wells and Redman are ever standing in the way of someone more talented, then those deals could ruin the Rockies' 2008 season.
Los Angeles Dodgers - The Dodgers are loaded with a surplus of talent, but their recent history has shown a reluctance to play the best of that talent. In 2008, Joe Torre needs to give Andy LaRoche, Matt Kemp, and Andre Ethier the opportunity to play full-time. If they fall on their faces, they've got Nomar Garciaparra and Juan Pierre waiting on the bench, but realizing that Nomar and Pierre are no longer MLB starters is necessary. The same kind of depth is found all over the roster. The major thing for the '08 Dodgers is giving the playing time to those most deserving. After the season, Jeff Kent, Rafael Furcal, and Derek Lowe are free agents. I'd sign Furcal to an extension because although Chin-Lung Hu can replace him at short next year, someone has to replace Kent at second.
San Diego Padres - The Padres are a team that always seems to sneak up on people. It doesn't seem like many think of them as a great team, but they're there in the end. I think that mostly has to do with playing in a low-scoring stadium on the West Coast. Their pitching staff is loaded with talent and, unfortunately, injury risk. Jake Peavy and Chris Young have had their issues in the past, but their injury risk is dwarfed by Randy Wolf and Mark Prior. If all stay healthy, they could be dangerous, but I think Padres' fans will see a lot of Justin Germano starting on the mound. In the outfield, they have lost both Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron. In their place, Scott Hairston and Jim Edmonds will see a lot of time with young 3B prospect Chase Headley seeing some action as well. The Padres will be depending on their medical staffs this year as much as the guys taking the field. In the long-term, they could re-sign Khalil Greene, but there's no rush since he has two more seasons before free agency. Michael Barrett, Jim Edmonds, Greg Maddux, Randy Wolf, Mark Prior, and Trevor Hoffman are all free agents following the season, but none are guys you build an organization around. All this sums up to not a lot of movement needed before the season starts.
San Francisco Giants - If you were a potential GM and you were offered the Giants' job, would you take it? That's a hard question to answer since we're not potential GMs, but I can't see someone like Chris Antonetti of the Indians taking the job. Of course, the question is purely hypothetical since Brian Sabean is still the GM. For years, he had followed the model of win now because he had the game's best player in Barry Bonds. Now that Bonds is gone, all that's left is a pile of rubble and great pitching staff. Let's take a look at their projected lineup: Dave Roberts, Kevin Frandsen, Randy Winn, Bengie Molina, Aaron Rowand, Ray Durham, Dan Ortmeier, and Omar Vizquel. Using their 2007 numbers, the lineup analyzer has the Giants scoring 4.1 runs per game or 664 runs next year. The Nationals were worst last year at 673. Using the Pythagorean Expectation algorithm, the Giants would have to give up fewer than 3.7 runs per game to win the 90 it will take to win the division. Only the Padres' ERA was able to match that last year, but that doesn't count unearned runs. Getting past my dire expectations for the 2008 Giants, the Giants have a rotation they can build around. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are dominant starting pitchers, Noah Lowry is a good #3, Barry Zito is an overpaid #4 starter (alternatively, read Opening Day starter), and either Kevin Correia or Jonathan Sanchez can easily fill the last spot in the rotation with the other being rotation insurance. The Giants need to re-build their farm system and pick up offensive pieces over time to salvage this mess in preparation of fielding a contender before Cain becomes a free agent in 2011.
The NL West should be exciting this year and the next several years. The door is open for four of the division's five teams; it's just a matter of which one can beat the others through it and into the playoffs.
I'll be back either tomorrow or Thursday with my projected divisional standings. They will only be ordered because I'm not ready to throw projected win totals next to any of them yet.