Last season, the Brewers jumped into the NL Central picture only to fall behind the Cubs late in the year. This season, the Brewers and Cubs are back for another round, and the Reds and Astros have visions of joining them at the top of the standings.
Chicago Cubs - This offseason, the Cubs have acquired Kosuke Fukudome to fill the void left by the trade of Jacques Jones. Otherwise, they are returning most of the division champion team from last year. There isn't really much left to be done before the spring training. Other than a few relief pitchers, Derrek Lee is their next major free agent departure, but that doesn't happen for three more seasons. They have been rumored to be trading for Brian Roberts, but I just don't see why. Roberts and Mark DeRosa are both signed through 2009, and their last two seasons have been nearly identical rate-wise (minus the stolen base category). Unless DeRosa returns to his pre-2006 form, Roberts isn't much of an upgrade. Plus, Eric Patterson doesn't have much left to prove at AAA, and none of the three can play short if Ronny Cedeno fails to turn his ability into major league production once again (no, Ryan Theriot and his .672 OPS are not the solution). With their current roster, the Cubs should be near the top of the division once again.
Cincinnati Reds - The Reds' top-heavy farm system is about to become more balanced because Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, and Jay Bruce are set to lose their eligibility for prospect lists. Bailey is slated to join the rotation out of spring training, and the trade of Josh Hamilton was to open up center for Bruce. Votto still has Scott Hatteberg standing in his way, but Hatteberg shouldn't be too much of a challenge for Votto to overcome. That leaves Johnny Cueto as the only remaining top prospect in the system, and he has a shot to start the year in either the rotation or the bullpen as well. Despite the emergence of their minor league talent (usually perceived as a team throwing in the towel), the Reds will be playing for 2008. Adam Dunn, Ken Griffey, Jr., and David Weathers are all set to become free agents after the season (Griffey has a club option for $16.5M with a $4M buyout, which isn't out of the question if healthy). Right now, the Reds should try to re-sign Dunn to an extension, which probably won't be well received by Reds' fans (I fail to understand why they see Dunn as the problem rather than the solution). Once Votto proves he can handle first base in the major leagues, the Reds should deal Hatteberg for a bullpen arm or a prospect. If they fall out of the race, the Reds should look to trade Dunn (if not re-signed), Griffey, and Weathers.
Houston Astros - The Astros are similar to the Blue Jays in my mind - in a spot between playing for now and playing for the future. Like the Blue Jays, the Astros don't have much coming up in the farm system, and they have several players signed to lucrative contracts. The Astros are stuck with playing for now, but their rotation needs a ton of work. Roy Oswalt and Wandy Rodriguez hold the top two spots, but the rest of the rotation will be filled out by three of Brandon Backe, Woody Williams, Chris Sampson, Felipe Paulino, Runelvys Hernandez, and Jack Cassel. That's not exactly a division-winning rotation. The Astros need to bring in some help, but they don't have much excess talent to trade from at other positions and there aren't many free agent options remaining - Roger Clemens, Freddy Garcia, Kyle Lohse, Wade Miller, and Jeff Weaver might be the best ones left. They'll be in even more dire straits if Tejada's situation forces his deportation. If you're looking for good news, their first major free agent departure would be after the '09 season (Tejada and Valverde).
Milwaukee Brewers - The recent signing of Mike Cameron will improve the Brewers' defense five months out of the year. After he serves his amphetamine suspension of 25 games, the Brewers will have an upgrade of defense in center and at third without much loss in left. Ryan Braun was horrible at third base, but he should be athletic enough to handle left field. For the month of April, the Brewers will be able to use Gabe Gross and Tony Gwynn, Jr. to man center field, which should be enough to get by. Their only troublesome spot is behind the plate, where they didn't see that Jason Kendall's career should be entering the backup stage. His offensive limitations will be hidden by the offensive capabilities of the rest of the lineup, but moves like this are unexplainable. Looking to the future, most of the team is under team control through 2009. Ben Sheets headlines the list of players with contracts expiring at the end of the year. It's been four years since he started over 30 games, but if he's able to go through the year without major injury, the Brewers should try to re-sign him following the season. The other players that will be free agents following the season are Eric Gagne, Brian Shouse, and Guillermo Mota. None warrant an extension before they reach free agency.
Pittsburgh Pirates - John Perrotto wrote yesterday that while it appears that new GM Neal Huntington has been asleep at the wheel, he has done his work behind the scenes. Looking at their roster, it is true what Huntington says about the team underperforming last year, but there is also not enough talent there to say they have a shot before 2010. Unfortunately, Adam LaRoche, Freddy Sanchez, Jack Wilson (pending a team option), Jason Bay, and Xavier Nady will be free agents by then. For that reason, they should try to trade (or re-sign) all of them. Obviously, many of them are coming off poor seasons and need some time to re-build their trade value. Matt Morris and Damaso Marte can be added to the trade list as well, assuming someone is desperate enough to take Morris off their hands. I think Huntington is on the right track in a big picture sense, but LaRoche is the youngest of the players I mentioned at 28. All of them are in or past their peak and should be traded before they get too far in their decline phase. If the Pirates want to get value from their young starting pitchers - Tom Gorzelanny, Ian Snell, Paul Maholm, and Zach Duke, they need to find some good position player prospects quickly (preferably before 2012 when team control of the three not named Gorzelanny will have expired).
St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals had a veteran team back in 2006 when they won the World Series, and their current roster shows it. They lack starter-caliber middle infielders, and their starting rotation is risky to put it nicely. On the good side, they have a superstar that only one or two teams can match in Albert Pujols. In order to put him to good use before his contract expires, the farm system needs to be re-built quickly. Pujols is signed through 2011 if you assume his 2011 club option of $16M will be picked up. For this reason, I consider the trade for Glaus an upgrade (less risk for a non-contending team) but short of its potential. I would have rather seen them get a few prospects for Rolen, but instead, they're probably stuck with Glaus for the next two years, which isn't entirely bad if he stays healthy. Given Glaus's no-trade clause, I'll only suggest Jason Isringhausen and Mark Mulder as the players the Cardinals should look into trading, assuming that Mulder can prove his health after offseason rotator cuff surgery. Neither should be expected to be a part of the next Cardinals postseason roster.
I'll be back later in the week with the NL West, and then I'll post my current projected 2008 standings. I've got a couple other ideas for me to write about after that.