After a second-place finish last year, the Blue Jays are back in their customary #3 spot, where they have finished 8 of the last 10 seasons.

The Good

A couple of 39 year old hitters have put up pretty good seasons. Frank Thomas has been able to stay healthy for a whole season and continues to prove that he can still hit. Matt Stairs is the big surprise here, logging play in the outfield corners and first base while hitting .295/.374/.560.

Everyone knew that the front of the rotation would pitch well when healthy, and they've proven that to be the case. A.J. Burnett might never post 30 starts in a season again, but he and Roy Halladay are a pretty good top 2. Joining them in the rotation have been a pretty effective trio of Dustin McGowan, Shaun Marcum, and Jesse Litsch. Once the rotation gives the ball to the bullpen, Jeremy Accardo, Scott Downs, and Casey Janssen have done a good job of closing things out since B.J. Ryan got hurt early on. 

The Bad

One of their big free agent signings from two years ago, B.J. Ryan has always been a significant injury risk due to his mechanics, and this year proved to be a tough year as he had Tommy John surgery back on May 10th.

Making matters worse, their big signing this past offseason was to lock up Vernon Wells for 7 years and $126M, and he has failed to come through on his end of the deal by hitting a paltry .245/.304/.402. Given his career line of .281/.331/.478, he should bounce back next year, but we'll see just how much of a rebound he has in him. Joining Ryan on the sidelines, Lyle Overbay missed a month of the season and hasn't particularly played well when he's been in the lineup. A .242/.318/.394 hitting line is not what you expect from your first baseman.

Just to pile on, GM J.P. Ricciardi signed replacement-level John McDonald to a multi-year contract at $1.9M per year for 2008 and 2009. He is pretty good with the glove, but is it enough to make up for his hitting .246/.271.324? That's pretty doubtful, and at 32 (he turns 33 Monday), it's not likely to get any better. He's probably best suited for a utility/defensive substitution role, but are those guys supposed to be making nearly $2M a season?

Looking Forward

It's not hard to like the Blue Jay pitching staff (currently third in MLB in ERA), but their offense is not particularly good. If Vernon Wells and Lyle Overbay return to their previous levels, they could be onto something. But that assumes that the rest of the team is at least as good as they were this year. With high injury risks like Troy Glaus and Frank Thomas, that isn't a guarantee. Plus, the injury risks don't end with the position players, Burnett, Ryan, and Halladay have all had their battles with the injury bug. Just like his former boss in Oakland, Ricciardi has a lot of risk built into his roster, and also like Billy Beane's team, next year's luck with injuries could determine the direction of this team.