Chelsea v. Fenerbahce

The Overview:

Chelsea thus far have been one of the more impressive clubs in the competition.They won their group and have conceded only twice, the fewest of any team in the competition. They also have a strong plus 10 goal difference. Fenererbahce finished four points behind Inter in their group but finished four points ahead of PSV.  Thus far, the Turks have a plus two goal difference which place them second to worst in that regard. They have conceded 11 goals which places them last in that category among the remaining teams.

The Story Thus Far:

Chelsea looked vulnerable after their first fixture ended in a 1-1 home draw with Rosenborg, the lowest ranked team in the competition.  They bounced back a fortnight later with a crucial 2-1 away victory at Mestalla against Valencia. At the Bridge, Chelsea beat Schalke 2-0 on a Manuel Neuer howler off a weak shot from Malouda and Chelsea put the game out of reach with a Drogba strike after the restart.  Away from the Bridge the Blues could manage only nil nil draw with Schalke and at the Bridge against Valencia it was again nil nil. Chelsea avenged their embarrasing home draw against Schalke with a 4-0 waltz in Norway. In the round of 16 against Olympiakos, Chelsea managed only a nil nil draw but trounced the Greeks at the Bridge 3-0.

Fenerbahce started there campaign strong at home when a Deivid de Souza briiliantly volleyed a Robert Carlos cross past Julio Cesar for the schock upset of the Italian champs. Against CSKA at the Lokomotiv in Moscow, de Souza equalised for Fener to draw the game 2-2.  Against  PSV at the Philips Arena,they drew nil nil with there main competition for runners up.  Fenerbahce beat PSV at Saracoglu Stadium 2-0. They lost to Inter 3-0 at San Siro, before clinching there place in the knockouts with a 3-1 victory over CSKA at home. In the round of 16 they faced Sevilla as underdogs, but their home form again proved stellar as they won 3-2. In the return the scoreline was reversed and Fener kept their nerves to advance on penalties.

The Tale OF The Tape:

Since their home draw with Rosenborg, Chelsea's play has been stellar. However, their group which at first glance seemed challenging turned out to be among the easier groups in the competition. Valencia and Schalke have both underperformed this season domestically.  Chelsea's away form may be the key. They did post impressive victories at Mestalla and in Norway, but against Schalke and Olympiakos they did not score or concede.  Remove Chelsea's impressive win against Los Che at their fortress and against lowly Rosenborg,  and just focus on the away games at Schalke and Olympiakos. Both teams play in an extremely hostile home environment especially Olympiakos. In the away leg Chelsea seemed not all to keen to expose themselves at the back and were content to take a nil nil draw back to London where teams from Eastern Europe tend to struggle. The strategy worked, and Olympiakos who have a dreadful record in England surrendered meekly.  Since the Rosenborg tie, Chelsea have not conceded at home while scoring 5 times. Not conceding in Turkey would seem to be the main priority at this point fot the Blues, with an away goal being an added bonus.

Out of the 32 teams that reached the group stages, Fenerbahce was ranked at 30. They made it to the knockouts by winning all four of their home matches. Inter, PSV, CSKA, and Sevilla all tasted defeat at Saracoglu Stadium. At home Fener has scored 9 times and conceded only 3 times for an excellent plus six difference. Fener can and will score at home but they can also be scored upon. All three goals conceded at home came in their last two home matches.  Away from home is a different story.  Fener lost to Inter, drew with PSV and CSKA and lost to Sevilla but advanced on penalties. They have scored 4 times away from home and conceded 8 for a weak negative four difference.

Summary:

This is Fenerbahce first ever appearance in the second round/knockout stage of the Champions League. Their waek goal difference and poor away form suggests that they have been playing over their heads and relying on home form. However, they did post a respectable 2-3 defeat to Sevilla in the last round.  Historically, Fener has little experience with English opposition. The only English side they have faced is Manchester Unitted. In hte 1996-1997 campaign they lost at home 2-0 but won at away 1-0 . In 2004-2005 they lost 6-2 in Old Trafford but posted a very impressive 3-0 win at home. Overall, in the CL Fener have an away record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses.  In order to win this tie they will have to score at the very least 1 home goal without conceding to have any chance. A scoreless draw or a 1-1 draw will mean near certain defeat for the poor traveling Turks. Due to the unlikelihood of Fener scoring multiple goals at home without conceding, Chelsea are strong favorites to advance especially considering this is Fener's first ever trip to the knockouts let alone quartefinals and that Chelsea have conceded only once on their travels.

Manchester United v. Roma

The Overview:

United have been possibly the most impressive club in this competition. They have posted an excellent plus 10 goal difference thus far,  have scored 15 time and have conceded 5 times thus far. United won their first five fixtures in the group stages before drawing 1-1 with Roma in what was a meaningless game. They also faced French Champions Lyon in the round of sixteen, and while both matches were hotly contested, United did well to advance on aggregate. Roma finished second to United in their group with their only loss thus far coming at the hands of United. Thus far, Roma have a plus 7 goal difference, have scored 15 times and conceded 8 times. Roma defeated Real Madrid at home 2-1 and impressively won 2-1 at the Bernabeau.

The Story Thus Far:

United began their European campaign with a  1-0 victory over Sporting in Lisbon thanks to a brilliant Ronaldo header and some crafty keeping from Van der Sar. They followed that with a 1-0 over Roma at Old Trafford. In Kiev the Red Devils won comfortably 4-2. In the return United again overwhelmed Kyiv 4-0. After conceding their first home goal of the tournament against Sporting, United rallied to level and Ronaldo won the match in stoppage time. By now, United had sewn up first place in the group, and the match against Roma in Rome ended in a 1-1 draw. In the knockouts United were unlucky to draw as high quality a side as Lyon, but Tevez equalised late in the away leg and United won the return 1-0 for an aggregate victory.

Roma began their campaign looking to atone for their embarrasing 7-1 defeat last term at the hands of Man Utd. Although they were drawn into the same group they could exact no measure of revenge. Roma first beat Kyiv at home 2-0, lost to United away 1-0, and won at home  by a 2-1 margin over Sporting. A Polga own goal gave Roma an away result as they drew 2-2 with Sporting. Roma secured second place with a 4-1 away win in Kyiv, and could only achieve a 1-1 draw with United. In the knockouts Rroma was paired with Real Madrid. They won 2-1 at home and repeated the resul in Madrid to once again send Real home before the spring.

The Tale Of The Tape:

United have really been on form in Europe this season.  This especially true regarding there home form. United have won every home match thus far. Roma, Sporting, Kyiv and Lyon were all defeated at Old Trafford. In fact, United have conceded only once at home this whole campaing.  That goal was a 30 yarder from Sporting that caught backup keeper Kuszcak out of position. Away form has also been stellar, although it has not been tested much. They beat Sporting in a hotly contested match and easily defeated Kyiv although they conceded twice. The away match at Roma was rendered meaningless by virtue of its timing.  They did show good form away to Lyon and grabbed a vital away goal. In all United have scored 8 times at home while conceding only once, and have scored 7 times away and conceded 4 times (two of those to Kyiv.) United have also had the luxury of being relatively injury free this season and are in good form domestically.  Cristiano Ronaldo is the tournaments joint top scorer and may be the best attacking player in the world at the moment.  Certainly, United has shown remarkable consistency and is a favorite to win the title. Ferguson, although not known for Europe has experience to get the job done. If United can score an away goal and keep within one goal it will be hard to beat them considering their stellar home form.

Roma have come on strong in recent weeks. Domestically they have reopened the title race with seemingly uncatchable Inter, and quieted the critics of their away ability with a victory at the Bernabeau. That victory alone makes this match hard to call despite their losing to United twice in the past year.  Roma's obvious deficiency when compared to United is their defence. The have conceded 8 times, and only posted a clean sheet against dreadful Kyiv who claimed not a single point from the group. Roma can and will score, 15 times thus far. They have scored both at and away from home 7 at home and 8 away. You also hope if you are a Romanista that they will have extra motivation against the team that humiliated them at this stage a year ago. Their defence may be slightly better at home (3 goals conceded as opposed to 5) but that is where the real gulf in quality lies.  In order to win the tie Roma will have to do what it did a year ago, post a victory in the Olimpico. If they can hold together in Old Trafford, and their Bernabeau triumph suggests they can, we will be in for a cracker rather than a training session.

Summary:

Roma have certainly improved on the European stage since their embarrasing 1 point group stage in 2004-2005 in which they lost all three away matches. They missed out the next year but have had successul casmpaigns the last two seasons. Unfortunately prior to the Real Madrid win they had some troule away from home. Last season they lost 2 of their three group stage encounters. An impressive away win against Lyon in the knockouts suggested improved road form but their next travel ended with a disgraceful 7-1 drubbing at the hands of United. So the question with Roma is away consistency. You will not find a history of terrible road form, but the inconsistency is a threat to destroy their chances. They can beat anybody at home but will they beat you away? Another discussion is the consequence of meeting a team several times in a short span in Europe. Is there a so called familiarity affect? Can one team coninue to beat another team or will the law of averages take over? The first case I found was my beloved 1995 Ajax team who beat AC Milan twice in the group stage and went on to defeat them 1-0 in the final. Whereas the first two encounters were fairly dominated by Ajax the final was hotly contested. In that situation it made no difference however and Ajax was consistently better than Milan. Another case was Bayern and Real Madrid in 1999-2000. The two were drawn together in the second group stage.  Bayern crushed Madrid in the Bernabeau 4-2 and again in Munich 4-1. However in the semifinals Bayern lost the first leg 2-0 and despite winning the second leg could not make up the aggregate. In that case the familiarity lead to defeat for pehaps the better side. In 2001-2002, Manchester United ad Deportivo la Coruna were drawn together in the groups. Depor won both the home and away fixtures. However in the quarterfinals United advanced comfortably on 5-2 aggregate. Last season Liverpool and PSV were drawn in the groups. Liverpool drew at the Philips but won at Anfield. In the quarterfinals Liverpool won comfortably in both legs.

In summary this looks to be a really excellent tie. Roma needs to look for the win at home considering their inconsistencies away. You can not rely on the familiarity to play a factor as you see above. Sometimes the victor from previous encounters keeps winning and sometimes the losers leave everything on the field to carry them to victory. United is the more balanced side, sturdier in defense and more consistent. Roma however can pour in the goals if need be.  I would be surprised if Roma went down so easily at Old Trafford this time around. So although on paper it says Manchester United should win, my heart says Roma into the quarters on away goals.

Barcelona v Schalke 04

Schalke have been the least impressive of the remaining clubs in the competition. They have the worst goal difference at plus one, and took only 8 points from their group, the lowest of any advancing team.  Their wins came home and away against Rosenborg, the lowest ranked team in the competition and the first leg against Porto. Schalke have scored only 6 goals thus far in the tournament and 5 came against Rosenborg. In 6 matches against Chelsea, Valencia, and Porto they managed only a single goal. On the positive they have conceded only 5 times.  Schalke's ability to win this tie is severley hampered by their inability to score goals. Barcelona has been among the most impressive clubs thus far. They have a strong plus 11 goal difference and have scored 16 times while conceding only 5 times. They have been held scoreless only once in 8 matches, a nil nil draw at Ibrox against Rangers. Barcelona's excellent goalscoring record away from home, 7 in four matches, 7 in three not counting the Rangers match, means they could put themselves in an excellent position to all but win the tie in Gelsinkerchen with an away goal or two. Schalke's main advantage lies in taking the match to penalties where their young athletic keeper can tip the scales in their favor. Barcelona have only conceded once at home, which is more bad news for Schalke which have yet to score away from home, where they scored just once.

Based on these factors, it is nearly impossible to imagine that Schalke could manage to score at the Camp Nou and it will be a struggle even in the Arena. barring an unforseen drop in European form, Barca should continue their balanced form, and even if Schalke keeps a clean sheet at home, they should defeat them at the Camp Nou. Barcelon to win on aggregate.