Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

With the additions of Sam Madison, Will Demps and LaVar Arrington to an ailing defense and the expected growth of a certain Manning, the New York Giants were hoping to build on an 11-win season in 2005.

But after the first month, the Giants had more in-house problems than the Osbourne's and the expectations were vastly lowered. They looked like they were ready to implode after the Seattle Seahawks stuffed their cleats deep into their rear-ends during a 42-30 stomping in Week 3. The Giants climbed to relevance with five straight wins, but followed that up with losses in six of their final seven games.

Many offseason additions failed as Madison and Demps combined for four interceptions while Arrington's only good game - or half - came Week 6 in the game he tore ACL.

While one can point to a number of injuries, which unquestionably hindered the Giants from reaching their full potential, the biggest ailment for the franchise was the lack of overall growth.

On defense, Corey Webster didn't look any more adept than he did in his rookie season, the issues at outside linebacker were not solved and horrid tackling was once again the demise of the defense.

On offense, Sinorice Moss essentially lost a season, questions as to whether Brandon Jacobs could handle a fulltime set of carries wasn't answered and Eli Manning definitely did not take a big step forward.

Manning's stats have looked very similar the past two seasons and now some pessimistic thoughts have begun to ruminate as to whether he ever will be a franchise quarterback.

His mechanics are still inconsistent and he is definitely not the on-field general that his brother is. We keep waiting for that pouting expression to be replaced with a fired up look of stern concentration but the truth is that nothing really appears to faze Manning.

Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers:

All eyes were on Eli Manning last season - as they have been since he was drafted -examining what type of improvements he had made. The truth is that there weren't many.

2005:
16 GP, 294-557 (52.8%), 3762 YDS, 24 TD, 17 INT, 75.9 QB RATING

2006:
16 GP, 301-522 (57.7%), 3244 YDS, 24 TD, 18 INT, 77.0 QB RATING

His completion percentage jumped up nearly five points but his yardage totals dropped quite a bit.

Leaving the expectations of greatness aside for a second, those numbers are not bad for a starting quarterback. What is really guised here is his inconsistency, which has plagued his career so far.

Take a look at the breakdown for Manning in the team's wins versus the team's losses:

8 Wins:
145-250 (58%), 14 TD, 5 INT, 87.4 QB RATING

8 Losses:
156-272 (57.4%), 10 TD, 13 INT, 67.4 QB RATING

For the most part, Manning was the reason the Giants would either win or lose come Sunday.

Further breakdown shows that Manning had 15 touchdown and zero interceptions in the red zone, which shows that he does have the sharp accuracy and keen decision making skills that we all thought he did. Now it is more a matter of being steady throughout the game and season.

The truth is that while Manning has been scrutinized quite a bit for his underachievement, a lot of excuses have poured in to defend him. Blame has been spread on offensive coordinators, Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey. The bottom line still remains that the burden is on Manning to make those people/players better, not the other way around.

Not Smarter Than A 5th-Grader Because...:

They released left tackle Luke Petitgout. Sometimes people talk about Petitgout as being somewhat injury prone but the truth is that he played 113 out of a possible 128 games in his eight-year career. A broken leg cost him seven games last year and a back injury limited him to 10 games in 2003. Aside from that, he hasn't played less than 15 games in any season.

The bigger - and possibly more accurate - knock on Petitgout is that he is not a premier left tackle in the same class as Orlando Pace or Walter Jones. While that is true, any team that doesn't have a Pace or a Jones would start Petitgout in a pinch. He may not be great, but he is still very good.

What makes this a complete boneheaded move was the fact that there is no replacement. Save the "we David Diehl" argument; all that means is that you have to replace the vacancy that Diehl will leave open when he slides over to replace him. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that Diehl will be an upgrade at left tackle. The bottom line is that the Giants downgraded their offensive line by cutting Petitgout and don't have a legitimate replacement for neither him nor Diehl, should he slide over from guard.

Will Win The Superbowl And Will Pay +3500 If...:

Eli Manning turns Peyton Manning times 1000. Their chances are slim.

On offense, Tiki Barber is gone and in steps Reuben Droughns. His acquisition is peculiar, since he brings the same inside power-running style that Brandon Jacobs entails. The Giants will have a power attack with no deep threats.

The success of the team is banking on the growth of Eli Manning. If he does grow up, meaning that his completion percentage surpasses 60% and he doesn't throw more than 15 interceptions, the Giants could be a playoff team and no more.

The "could" in the last sentence will turn to a "will" if Sinorice Moss develops into a slot receiver and Plaxico Burress and Jeremy Shockey also experience progressions.

On defense, the Giants generate more questions than Stephon Marbury's sports talk show. The defensive tackles overachieved last year and will need to keep it up. Defensive end is the team's strongest position, assuming Lisfranc injuries from last year don't impact the performance of Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck this season (and Strahan shows up).

Can Mathias Kiwanuka make a successful move to linebacker? Considering that his strength is pass-rushing, I'll say that at-best this is a transitional year for him.

With first-round pick Aaron Ross in tow, the Giants might have two good cornerbacks by mid-season.

As a whole, there are no obvious indications that the defense will be better. On offense, the team has added a hole to their offensive line and lost Barber. If Manning doesn't improve, the offense will be undoubtedly worse.

Add to all of that, a lame duck coach who is just waiting to get fired. The Giants seemingly tuned him out after a 23-0 shutout playoff loss to Carolina but he is still sticking around. Throw in some clubhouse bickering and there is no reason to have high expectations for the Giants this year.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

After being tabbed as a sleeper two seasons in a row and falling somewhat short of fantasy expectations, most people will have Eli Manning pegged as more of a number-two fantasy quarterback. But without Tiki Barber around, Manning will have to throw the ball more often than in previous seasons. Brandon Jacobs has not shown that he can handled fulltime carries and Reuben Droughns is off a terrible season. Expect Manning to have higher passing totals and more touchdowns. Whether he becomes a better quarterback in the NFL (lowers interceptions, improves completion percentage) won't really affect fantasy production too much.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

If the New Orleans Saints were the biggest shocker in the NFC, the New York Jets were their AFC equivalent.

With Chad Pennington starting, the Jets quarterback situation was perceived to be frail at best and with no real discernable weapons on offense, the Jets were supposed to be a docile opponent.

But Eric Mangini, similar to Bill Belichick did things in New England, and took a roster that looked weak on paper, but made them overachieve on the field.

Running a new, complex offense under coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, the Jets were effective. Pennington was inconsistent but was more good than bad, which is all the Jets needed. Considering he had no help from his running backs and was doubted by every pundit, he should be applauded for the season he had.

The Jets weren't completely bankrupt of weapons but they were definitely limited with what they could do having Leon Washington, Laveranues Coles and Jerricho Cotchery as their go-to guys.

They used a lot of smoke and mirrors to move the ball up and down the field but didn't have enough speed (or arm strength at QB) to consistently test teams down the field.

On defense, the Jets had lemons, but made lemonade.

With Bryan Thomas moving from defensive end and Jonathan Vilma moving into the middle, there were concerns about how the linebacking corps would perform. But Thomas had a career-high 8.5 sacks and Victor Hobson, his opposite on the outside, also output a career-year.

There were trepidations about how Vilma would perform in the new system and it didn't work out very well. To be honest, though, most of it had to do with the fact that the Jets were not using a traditional nose tackle to anchor their 3-4. That left Vilma to fight through more traffic and blockers, which he struggled with. The transition inside for Eric Barton didn't go so well either.

The defensive line was so-so for the Jets. Kimo Von Oelhoeffen wasn't an impact player at end, Shaun Ellis was - at times - and DeWayne Robertson just didn't quite fit playing on the nose.

In the secondary, the Jets used several different faces at cornerback but none of which could provide a steady level of play outside of Andre Dyson. The security came from the safeties, where Kerry Rhodes should have been a Pro Bowler while Erik Coleman rebounded after a tough season.

One-Hit Wonder?:

With Belichick, everyone pegged them as a one-hit wonder after they blew up out of nowhere. It took about two more years of doubting before people realized that Belichick was serious and that he will continue to compete with waiver-wire pickups.

Eric Mangini and the Jets are now facing the very same doubters.

The Jets are a weird team - it's tough to really gage how good they will be. Count me in as a doubter.

Last season, their 10 wins came against: TEN, BUF, MIA x 2, DET, NE, HOU, GB, MIN and OAK - not exactly murders row.

Their success or failure is extremely dependent on Pennington, or more specifically, on how many turnovers he does or doesn't make.

In 10 wins last year, Pennington threw 13 touchdowns and five interceptions, but had four touchdowns and 11 interceptions in six losses.

He should be better in his second season in the system, especially now with some more confidence, but the ceiling for Pennington is very low. He's not a franchise quarterback and his best case scenario is essentially avoiding mistakes and moving the chains.

Thomas Jones will help alleviate a lot of Pennington's stress. Jones is an underrated receiver and should be good for dump-offs.

The problem with this offense is that everything is done within the 10-20 yard range. There isn't a real threat of downfield plays still, which means defenses can play almost all of their defenders much closer to the line. Even with tricks and gadgets, the ceiling for the offense is very low.

Laveranues Coles is a bit better than a possession receiver at this point in his career and is no longer explosive. Cotchery and Justin McCareins don't scare anyone down the field, and there is no threat at tight end.

The Jets offensive line could be an issue in the regular season. No, they won't be the Kansas City Chiefs or the Houston Texans of the past two years, but steady guard, Pete Kendall, has been bickering back and forth with team heads and was a big distraction.

Kendall is a leader and helped the development of both rookies on either side of him, D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Nick Mangold. They may not be as good without him. Ferguson also faded down the stretch, which isn't particularly encouraging.

On defense, the Jets look like they should be better with the additions of Darrell Revis and David Harris but the key will be the defensive line.

Even though Kenyon Coleman is now part of the rotation, the Jets defensive line isn't very strong. Ellis and Robertson are good in spurts but are not consistent.

The linebackers will be better than last year, mostly because Harris has reignited Eric Barton and Vilma should be more accustomed to the 3-4. The inside spots are the only real concern and Harris is waiting in the wings should either slip up.

In the secondary, Dyson returns as a starter and the Jets are hoping that Revis can solidify the position opposite of him. More importantly, though, Revis is a playmaker and that's what the Jets need more of - big plays. He got into camp very late, which is typically not a good start and will limit his impact on the coming season.

Looking this roster up and down, they just don't have the quality components that other teams do. They are not a bad team, but it just looks like they will have to prey on teams that make mistakes, avoid them themselves, and rely on a conservative offense to get by.

Count me in as a doubter until Mangini proves me wrong again. With a much stronger schedule ahead, I don't think he will.

Biggest Weakness: Quarterback - Pennington was inconsistent last year and guided a very docile offense last year. I could see Kellen Clemens taking over at some point this season.

Offensive X-Factor: Offensive Line - This offense may not be much, but it will be a lot less without good protection.

Defensive X-Factor: Shaun Ellis - If he can regain his Pro Bowl form, Ellis will attract a lot of attention on the outside, opening things up for Thomas and Hobson.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

No one on this offense is worth reaching for. Thomas Jones is in a new environment and he's not backed up with the league's top defense. Chad Pennington isn't a good fantasy quarterback and there are no tight ends here worth drafting. Coles and Cotchery will make rosters, but expect McCareins and Brad Smith to pull some catches away from those two. They'll also get less looks because the Jets won't have to rely on the passing game so much.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

A new coaching staff, a quarterback recovering from major shoulder surgery, a freshly reconstructed offensive line and a defense lacking virtually everything except for defensive ends.

That's what the New Orleans Saints were last offseason but as is typical in the NFL, they were that one team caught a lot of breaks and went from outhouse to penthouse.

Well, "breaks" may be a loose way of describing what happened to them, but who could have really predicted what transpired last season?

On the offense alone, there was more turnover than a local McDonalds.

The Saints plugged Jon Stinchcomb at right tackle, even though he hadn't shown much early in his career, and moved stalwart tackle Jamaal Brown to the left side. In the middle, the picked up Jeff Faine off the Cleveland Browns and started rookie Jahri Evans at guard.

The fact that they jelled so quickly and performed as one of the best offensive lines in the NFL is simply amazing.

They were protecting Drew Brees, who definitely helped out his front five by getting rid of the ball quickly.

Remember how the Miami Dolphins were debating between Brees and Daunte Culpepper, but opted for Culpepper because his injury was knee related while Brees' was shoulder related?

Yeah, they screwed up - only I'm inclined to use the 'F' word instead of the word 'screwed'.

Brees was part of the quarterback rehab watch last summer that included Culpepper, Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich.

It wasn't a surprise that Brees was healthy or effective, what opened eyes was the fact that he was the best quarterback in the NFC.

But even the line and Brees weren't the biggest bolts from the blue on the team.

How about Marques Colston? A seventh-round pick, who was a converted tight end, who turned out to be the team's top target? How about the defense? With a number of castoffs, such as Scott Fujita, Scott Shanle, Mark Simoneau, Hollis Thomas and Omar Stoutmire, who could have thought they would be halfway decent?

Quite literally, everything went right for the Saints in 2006. I haven't even touched upon Reggie Bush, or Deuce McAllister, who also was recovering from a major injury.

But one thing you have to understand is that "getting all the breaks" is usually a credit to a shrewd front office, followed by a bright coaching staff. Luck is part of it, but not as much as the latter point.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Offensive Game-Planning

What might go somewhat unnoticed from last season was just how good of a game-plan the Saints coaching staff concocted each and every week.

Week One of the season - a crucial week for any losing team who is trying to build a winning foundation - the Saints come out and run the ball 37 times against the Cleveland Browns.

Sean Payton and his coaching staff looked at the 2005 statistics and highlighted the fact that the Browns finished with the 30th ranked rushing defense.

In Week Two, just when you thought the Saints would continue with their run-heavy tendencies, they come out pass-happy at Lambeau Field.

In Week One, the Green Bay Packers played the Chicago Bears but held the Bears to only 109 rushing yards on 36 attempts. But the Packers' pass defense was exploited in Week One as Rex Grossman was 18-26 for 262 yards.

So Payton and his staff followed that model and Brees put the ball in the air 41 times for 353 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. The Saints only rushed the ball 18 times in Week Two.

Week Three against the Atlanta Falcons, the Saints caught a few bounces on special teams, which helped them to an early lead. With a dominant defensive performance, the Saints simply had to manage the game. Brees threw for 191 yards while the ground game was used 33 times.

After watching the Carolina Panthers run defense reassert themselves in Week Two and Three, after opening up for 252 rushing yards to the Falcons in Week One, the Saints once again came in with a sharp offensive game plan. They avoided the run and went straight to the pass.

Brees was 28-38 for 349 yards and a touchdown.

Against the Philadelphia Eagles, the Saints used quick passes to counter-act the Eagles aggressive defense.

Each week the Saints had a great offensive game plan and you can count on that again in 2007.

Can The Saints Build On Last Season?:

You might the think the obvious answer is yes, but just ask the Washington Redskins, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Carolina Panthers or the New York Giants.

The pieces are in place and it is difficult envisioning this offense declining in any way, particularly since Bush and Colston are a year older.

But the key for the Saints to make it deeper in the playoffs will be the play of their defense.

While it was fine last season, they won't be as good this year. They feasted off of the team confidence and overachieved.

You have to remember one thing: the Saints only played three teams with a winning record last year. Given their turnaround, their schedule is going to get tougher.

The Saints gave up 128.9 rushing yards per game in the regular season but in two playoff games pushed their average to 159.

To be quite frank, their linebacking could get badly exposed this year. Shanle, Fujita and Simoneau are all marginal talents.

The Saints don't have a great defensive line by any means but with Charles Grant and Will Smith on the ends, they can always generate pressure. Keep in mind that both guys were playing for contracts last year and now have their long term security, which means you can expect a dip in production.

At cornerback, Mike McKenzie is inconsistent and Fred Thomas got picked on more and more as the season went. Free agent acquisition, Jason David, isn't exactly Ty Law. He'll start and will be an upgrade over Thomas, but maybe not by much.

Are They Among the NFC's Best?:

The Saints will be back as a playoff contender, mostly because of their offense.

Brees will have more weapons to work with (Robert Meachem, David Patten, Eric Johnson) and there is already evidence of him making sub par wideouts look good (Terrence Copper).

But Bush and Colston need to keep developing if this team is to be a serious contender.

This offense will work fluidly regardless, simply because Payton is such a sharp offensive mind and will expose the opposing team's weaknesses, but for this team to be a real Super Bowl contender, they have to be great on offense and that puts the spotlight on those two sophomores.

The defense simply isn't as talented and will be tested much more rigorously with a tougher schedule in place, starting Week One in Indianapolis.

The Trend Of Receiving Running Backs:

Bush may have received the most attention in this role, but the new trend in the NFL is running backs who can be split out and make things happen in the passing game.

The Philadelphia Eagles have been using Brian Westbrook in this role but performances by Maurice Jones-Drew, Jerome Harrison, Leon Washington and Bush are making this into quite the hot commodity.

For the Saints, with Bush and McAllister in the same backfield, opposing defense have to respect a lot of action closer to the line of scrimmage, which opens up quite a few lanes in the passing game.

Biggest Weakness: Defense - I'm not convinced their defense will hold up against tougher opponents. They lack depth at corner and its hard to get excited about their linebacking corps.

Offensive X-Factor: Drew Brees - Put it this way: without Bush, this offense still functions; without Brees: this offense is nothing.

Defensive X-Factor: Safeties - The Saints have a good, deep rotation of safeties that need to make plays both in the passing game and running game.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Don't count me in as one of the guys that will be reaching for Marques Colston. Sure, he had an outstanding rookie campaign but so did Michael Clayton. Alright, so he's probably not Michael Clayton but he's not going to surprise anyone this season.

Colston also has to deal with the fact that the Saints spread the ball around and have picked up more targets. The addition of tight end Eric Johnson isn't huge, but it could pull away a touchdown or two in the red zone. Johnson has been Brees' favorite target in the red zone in training camp.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

If there ever was a season where Bill Belichick's New England Patriots looked vulnerable, 2006 would be it.

As the team parted with stalwart receivers Deion Branch and David Givens in the offseason, there weren't enough weapons to keep Tom Brady content. As a matter of fact, there was hullabaloo that Brady was displeased with management.

While the front office tried a few tricks, such as acquiring Doug Gabriel, the fix proved to be in-house.

At the beginning of the season, every NFL fan wondered how the heck the Patriots were going to get by with Reche Caldwell and Jabar Gaffney, who was cut earlier by the Philadelphia Eagles. But just as they got by with Randall Gay and Troy Brown at cornerback in the 2004 AFC Championship game, the Pats got by with lesser parts at wide receiver.

With two solid running backs on the roster, Corey Dillon and Laurence Maroney, the Pats leaned more on their running game.

Dillon, who clearly lost the speed from his speed and power combination, was the inside bruiser while Maroney was the explosive outside threat.

The Patriots also switched to 30-year-old Josh McDaniels as their offensive coordinator in the offseason, but even with the lack of weapons and change on the sideline, the Patriots still scored more points-per-game in 2006 than they did in 2005.

On defense, it looked like the Pats aging roster was finally over the hill and that their defense would start to slow.

With Tedy Bruschi coming back after suffering a surprise heart attack, then the Patriots signing Chad Brown and Junior Seau, it looked the Patriots were finally going to collapse on defense. Not to mention they lost their second defensive coordinator, Eric Mangini, in the last three years and also were forced to play without starting safeties Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison for the better part of the season.

But lo and behold, not only did the Patriots avoid any decline, they actually improved significantly in the rankings. In 2005, they finished 25th overall. In 2006, they ranked 6th.

Like a zone-blocking scheme, like Denver running backs and like Dungy linebackers, you can't evaluate anything on paper. You have to remember the system, the track record and trust that they will once again be successful until they prove otherwise.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Patriots Shrewd Offseason Signings

By now, I'm sure you've heard that the Patriots, who have been employing the Moneyball approach in the NFL, have cracked open the piggy bank this offseason.

But with a closer examination, the Patriots haven't really changed their approach.

For starters, Moss restructured his two-year, $20 M contract to a one-year, $3 M contract. The Minnesota Vikings just signed Bobby Wade to $3 M a year. At that price, would you rather Moss or Wade? Obviously, Moss.

Next, the Patriots signed Donte Stallworth to a six-year, $33 M. At the end of the free agency period, the Philadelphia Eagles signed Kevin Curtis to a six-year, $32 M contract. Once again, who would you rather if the contracts are equal? Obviously, Stallworth.

The beauty of Stallworth's contract (for the Patriots) is that they can cut him at the end of this season, which will mean they have paid him $3.6 M for one year of his services.

Through a trade, the Patriots acquired Wes Welker, who led the Miami Dolphins in receptions last year, and signed him to a five-year, $18 M contract. Yet another reasonable contract.

The Patriots got an early jump on free agency with linebacker Adalius Thomas as well, signing him to a five-year, $35 M contract with $20 M in guarantees. Seem like a lot of money? Not really, especially when you consider Joey Porter, a linebacker considered on the downside of his career, signed for $32 M over five years with the same amount in guarantees less than a week later.

The Patriots ended up with Moss, Stallworth and Thomas for the same price that other teams paid for Wade, Curtis and Porter. Sounds like a pretty good free agency period for the Patriots if you ask me.

If You're Going To Crown Them, Then Crown Them:

After getting by (three Super Bowls in five seasons) with waiver-wire castoffs and now introducing A- and B-list stars to their roster, its no wonder the Pats are the Super Bowl favorite.

A year ago, they were hoping that second-round pick, Chad Jackson, would be competing for one of the starting jobs. This year, he'll be lucky to crack the top four in the rotation.

With Moss, Stallworth, Welker, Kelley Washington (who is another under-the-radar pickup), Jackson and last year's leading receiver, Caldwell, there are now more than enough receivers to keep Brady content. The Pats are also loaded at tight end - even with the departure of Daniel Graham. Ben Watson, Kyle Brady and David Thomas cover all the bases.

The only real concern on offense is whether the Maroney can handle the fulltime role as a running back. He got beat up last year and has split carries throughout his NFL and college career. Look for the Patriots to get Sammy Morris or Heath Evans involved more than you think.

On defense, the Patriots have infused a lot of talent as well. Thomas is the big name but look for first-round pick, Brandon Meriweather, to be contributing significantly. Meriweather is very versatile and can play safety or corner.

With or without Asante Samuel, I wouldn't be overly concerned. With him, this will be a very sound secondary. Without him...well the Patriots used Randall Gay and Troy Brown to get by at one point.

Up front the Patriots have the best three linemen manning a 3-4 defense. Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren are all Pro Bowl caliber and backup Jarvis Green keeps two of them fresh. There isn't much depth behind Wilfork.

At linebacker, the Pats added Thomas, which should take some pressure off the grayed veterans. Bruschi and Vrabel are deteriorating but with Seau also back, they should have the two inside positions locked down between the three of them.

It doesn't look like there is a lot of depth on this defense but it is kind of guised. They are versatile enough to switch between the 4-3 or 3-4 to mask different weakness if need be.

Who Can Stop Them?:

The San Diego Chargers won't stop the Patriots. Neither will the Indianapolis Colts, who downgraded this offseason.

The Chargers best shot came last year. Now with a new coaching staff and a secondary that now has to deal with Moss, Stallworth, and Welker, instead of just Caldwell, the Chargers aren't going to stop them.

The lone AFC team that has their number is the Denver Broncos. The Broncos have won five of the last six meetings, including the last three in New England. If you recall, it was the Broncos that handed Tom Brady his first playoff loss ever.

The Broncos, similar to how the Patriots and Colts, just know what to do to defeat the Patriots. The Broncos have a very good team and a better quarterback than last season and they appear to have the best shot at taking out the Patriots.

Biggest Weakness: Inside Linebacker - Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel have slowed down and Junior Seau is their backup.

Offensive X-Factor: Randy Moss - Remember the Randy Ratio? Moss being triple-teamed on each play? Moss opening up running lanes for Robert Smith? Moss taking on double and triple coverage? The Pats may have acquired a future Hall of Famer and it only cost them a fourth-round pick.

Defensive X-Factor: Vince Wilfork - Underappreciated, Wilfork makes the 3-4 work. He takes on double-teams every play and his hard work rarely shows up on the stat sheet.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Laurence Maroney hasn't had the fulltime duties as a ball carrier in either college or in his first year in the Pros. Last year, he took 175 (not many of them for tough yards) and still endured knee and shoulder injuries. The Patriots have used Heath Evans and also signed Sammy Morris, which indicates that they plan to give some of Maroney's duties to other backs.

Maroney is going in the first round or early second round and it might be too high for a guy who is still recovering from shoulder surgery. He will probably be pulled out for tough yardage situations and the Pats have shown they are comfortable using Evans or Morris in that case.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

When Brad Johnson stepped in for Daunte Culpepper in 2005 and finished the regular season with seven wins in nine games, the new coaching staff in Minnesota had reason to believe that Johnson still had some gas left in the tank for 2006.

That was a mistake.

As we've seen many a time, a quarterback can succeed in a no-pressure situation but then fails the following year when the burden is on his shoulders.

The worst thing about the Vikings six-win season was not the fact that they finished with an ugly record, or missed the playoffs. They weren't planning on making a big dent to begin with.

The problem was that, as a rebuilding team, they didn't experience much growth.

Starting Johnson at quarterback meant that Tarvaris Jackson wasn't getting snaps and wasn't developing.

In a group of busts at wide receiver including former first-round picks, Travis Taylor and Troy Williamson, neither emerged as a reliable target in Brad Childress' new offense. No receiver had more than 57 receptions or 651 receiving yards.

The front lines were strong for the most part, although left tackle Bryant McKinnie had an off year after signing a big contract, but were not as dominant as expected. That was mostly in part to the right side of the line.

The lone bright spot on offense was running back Chester Taylor. After serving as Baltimore's backup/third down back, there were concerns as to whether he could handle the fulltime duty. They grinded the hell out of him, feeding him 248 carries in the first three months of the season, which eventually wore him down. He also caught 42 passes.

On defense, with Pat Williams and Kevin Williams in the center of the defensive line, nobody ran on the Vikings. But their weaknesses in the passing game were exploited quite easily.

The Vikings racked up only 30 sacks, which clearly indicates that they didn't get enough pressure up front.

In short, a secondary with Antoine Winfield, Darren Sharper, Dwight Smith and Cedric Griffin won't rank as the worst passing defense again as long as they get some help. This is actually a pretty good unit if the Vikings can generate some more pressure.

A lack of growth in Childress' first season has already burned up his honeymoon time. The 2006 Vikings looked like a team that is poised for further decline and further rebuilding; not a team that is getting back on the rise.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Vikings Pass Rush

The Viking had 30 sacks in 2006. That puts them ahead of Houston, Cleveland, Tennessee, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and Washington - not exactly great company.

As mentioned above, starting right end, James, was injured for virtually the whole season and Udeze struggled, which put veteran Darrion Scott and rookie Ray Edwards right into the fire.

The entire group of defensive ends tallied 11.5 sacks, which is an abysmal total. Aaron Kampman from the division rival Green Bay Packers had four more (15.5) on his own than all of the Vikings' ends.

The rest of the Vikings linemen compiled six more sacks.

Their first-round pick track record hasn't been so hot, which has contributed to the problems.

Linebacker Chad Greenway (2006) missed his entire rookie season because of a torn ACL. End Erasmus James (2005) also busted his ACL (in the second game of the season). End Kenechi Udeze (2004), who had five sacks in his rookie season only has one in the last two seasons.

These guys are supposed to be the cornerstones of the front seven, particularly Udeze and James, but injuries stunted their growth, and therefore hampered the Vikings pass rush.

There weren't any superstars acquired to address the pass rush, which means the fix has to come in-house.

Brad Childress Already On The Hot Seat?:

How about that for a premature call!

The math is simple: the Vikings regressed in his first season and there isn't a lot of optimism heading into this season.

Nowadays, head coaches get about three years to turn around a program and if the Vikings don't make a significant push in the second half of this season, Childress should start feeling the heat.

The Glass Is Half Empty:

If the Vikings were a used car that we were breaking down for parts, here is what pieces have value:

The offensive line is fairly good, especially from center down the left side. The right side is under a bit of construction but right guard Artis Hicks should be stronger in his second season (he used to play left guard and last year was his first at right guard).

The running game is in excellent shape. Chester Taylor proved to be unspectacular but very capable last season and the Vikings added first-round pick Adrian Peterson, who is the game-breaker.

On defense, the Vikings have a reliable secondary and two of the NFL's best defensive tackles.

If the Vikings reaped average performance from every other position and made minimal mistakes, they could be a six-to-eight win team. Unfortunately, the other positions will probably drag this team down.

We'll start with quarterback where Tarvaris Jackson takes over the starting role. He's basically a rookie since the Vikings waited so long to get him into the lineup in his first year.

Naturally, in training camp, he's had his good moments and he's had his share of bad moments. For the first half of the season, the Vikings can't expect any sort of consistency from him and should expect higher than a normal amount of turnovers.

What's worse is that he doesn't have any premiere receivers to work with. Bobby Wade and Troy Williamson are the top targets - do I really need to say much more than that?

No opposing defense will trust Jackson and will stack the line of scrimmage in order to keep the ball in his hands.

On defense, the Vikings are virtually the same but get back Greenway and James from injury. Both players are supposed to make an impact but both are off of serious injuries.

Outside of the return of James, the defensive line, which accounted for only 17.5 sacks last year, hasn't change at all. That is not good news considering that a pretty good secondary went to waste when the Vikings couldn't rush the passer last year.

If all of these points prove to be true and the Vikings once again win six games, expect ownership to take a long look at Childress and what he's done in his two seasons in Minnesota and question whether to bring him back.

The Glass Is Half Full:

Yes, the Vikings are starting a rookie quarterback and yes, he didn't get many snaps last year.

But let's be honest for a second: they used Brad Johnson and Brooks Bollinger last year. Will Jackson be any worse?

The same can be said for the wide receiving corps. The only way they can go is up.

Williamson, who has only 61 receptions in two seasons, has worked overtime in the offseason to prove that he's not a bust. He went to a special Nike training center to balance out the depth perception in his eyes and bought a football-tossing machine and caught rockets from it daily.

Don't forget, wide receiver draft picks take a while to develop. Williamson is entering his third year and should get back on track this year.

The team also added veteran wideout Bobby Wade, who should solidify the slot role, and several draft picks, including South Carolina standout Sidney Rice.

The offense may have been consistent last season, but it was consistently bad. Even if they are sporadically good in 2007, that will be an upgrade.

On defense, the Vikings haven't made significant changes, but they were particularly necessary.

The Vikings may have had a huge disparity between their run and pass defense, but the result was that they only allowed 20.4 points per game (14th in NFL). It's not a great number but they can easily shave a point or two off of that.

With Greenway returning on the weakside, the Vikings will have a playmaker who is excellent in pass coverage. Losing blockers will be his biggest task but the run defense is solid anyway. E.J. Henderson and Ben Leber will start with him and Dontarrious Thomas is a versatile backup behind them.

On the line, James has yet to get back but they have brought him along slowly. They need him to make an impact. The same can be said for Udeze, who will be tagged a bust if he doesn't.

But let's assume the best. If these guys comeback and provide 10-12 sacks, the defense will be significantly better. With Scott still in the rotation and Edwards entering his sophomore year, the Vikings should have an adequate rotation.

If all of these things come to fruition, it won't matter how many games the Vikes win in 2007. They will have shown enough positive growth that will allow the franchise and the front office to raise the bar for 2008.

So Which Is It?:

I'm sitting on the fence, since I believe it is in between.

Look for the Vikings defense to become a premier unit in the second half of the season. They have a good, young linebacking corps and a quality secondary. All they are really missing on defense is sacks and they have young prospects (James, Udeze and Edwards) that are supposed to get them.

On offense, the picture is murkier. No one really knows what they have in Jackson, Williamson, Rice and Allison. Williamson will be the best player of the group this year but in the end, that might not be saying much.

Worst Offseason Move:

The Vikings signed career-backup tight end, Visanthe Shiancoe, to a five-year, $18.5 M contract. Shiancoe, who never impressed even when he got the starting role with Jeremy Shockey hurt, hit the lottery.

Not only is this too much money, considering not many other teams were in the running, but why secure him for five years?

Speaking of overpaying and securing a half-decent veteran for way too long, the Vikings also gave Bobby Wade a five-year, $15 M contract. Considering the last two teams he played for, the Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans, were both desperately low on receiving options still didn't make any real effort to re-sign him is a bit of a red flag.

Both of these players are contributors but are clearly overpaid.

Biggest Weakness: Quarterback - Tarvaris Jackson is an unknown and the Vikes have no veteran backups in case he falters.

Offensive X-Factor: Troy Williamson - What would help Jackson's development is if he had some reliable targets to throw to. Williamson has to hold onto the ball when it flies his way and he has to be a playmaker in the passing game.

Defensive X-Factor: Erasmus James - Simply put, this defense won't be any better if they don't generate sacks.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

If you are looking for a decent defense, the Vikings could be your bet.

It seems like defensive points allowed is interlocked with how many points the offense puts up, which in the Vikings case, should be fairly low.

The Vikings plan to run the ball and play defense a lot, which will translate into numerous low-scoring affairs.

And considering their lack of sacks, they are still a very good option for interceptions. They had 21 picks in 2006, which was the fifth-most in the NFL.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.