Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

Call it bad luck, or coincidence, but the Detroit Lions were once again ravaged by injuries in 2006.

On offense, the whole right side of the offensive line had new faces each week. In the backfield, Kevin Jones didn't surpass 186 carries for a second consecutive season due to injuries. Behind him, Shawn Bryson and Brian Calhoun also endured knee injuries.

On the other side of the ball, between a suspension and a knee injury, Shaun Rogers, the strength of the defensive line at tackle, only made six games. Starting cornerback Fernando Bryant failed to participate in more than 10 games for a third consecutive season.

While the Lions were as brittle as one of Charles Rogers' collar bones, there was a lot of positive progress, which is why Jon Kitna is already brewing the blue Kool-Aid for the coming season.

Roy Williams, who was tagged a player who couldn't play through pain, suited up for 16 games and dominated. With some better protection from the offensive line, we would probably be talking about Williams as one of the five to seven best receivers in the NFL.

As atrocious as Mike Martz is at managing a game, he is unquestionably one of the brightest offensive minds in the game. He unearthed Mike Furrey last season, who thrived as a possession and after-the-catch receiver and also proved that Jon Kitna could run his offense, after many pundits mocked him.

The defense was definitely not as strong but there were obvious bright spots.

For starters, the Lions finally hit on a first-round pick as linebacker Ernie Sims was a tackling machine. The next surprise was Corey Redding, who shifted inside on the line when Rogers stepped out of the lineup. Redding finished his huge season with eight sacks, the second-highest NFC total for a defensive tackle.

There were other, less exciting positives that the Lions can build on. Outside linebacker, Boss Bailey, who was also considered injury prone, finished a full season. He wasn't special, like the Lions hoped, but he did take a step forward. Virtually the exact same thing can be said about Alex Lewis as well.

Not everything was sunny, though, as the Lions had hoped that Marinelli would spark Kalimba Edwards, but he only finished with three sacks. Kennoy Kennedy, who is making a lot of money to be a top flight safety, didn't take off in the new scheme.

Injuries did impact the Lions in the win column last season but what is important to learn here is that Matt Millen and this team are no longer at rock bottom. They have past that point, have regained optimism and are on the way to winning.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Offensive Growth

Roy Williams, Mike Furrey and Jon Kitna had impressive seasons in 2006 but aside from Williams, it was hard to fathom the success of the other two.

Kitna went from being a borderline starter and a useful backup quarterback to being the NFC's third-leading passer.

Kitna had never thrown for more than 3591 yards in a season but topped that total by 671 yards. Some of the old Kitna was still there, as evidenced by his 22 interceptions against 21 touchdowns, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt considering he had no running game and little help from the offensive line. He was sacked 14 times more than any other quarterback in the league (63 times) and the Lions rushing game ranked dead last.

Mike Furrey was easily the biggest surprise of the three. A converted defensive back, Furrey flashed reliable hands and good yards-after-catch ability. Furrey finished with 98 receptions, second in the NFL only to Andre Johnson.

His game was more intermediate than Williams, who was the deep threat. 80 of 98 receptions came between the 20's. While most people won't expect him to build on his 98 catches from a year ago, he very well might. In his last five games, Furrey compiled 42 receptions for 436 yards.

Williams was not as much of a surprise since a lot has been expecting from him. That finally came to fruition in '06 as he led the NFC in receiving yards and catches of 20 yards or longer.
Even so, the best is still yet to come from Williams. As long as he stays healthy 1500 yards and 10 touchdowns is reasonable.

Why Jon Kitna Said 10 Wins:

The math is simple: the Lions 7th-best passing offense is in its second season with an improved offensive line and Calvin Johnson in the mix. The deadbeat running game, which failed throughout last season, now has Jones, speedster Tatum Bell and bulldozer T.J. Duckett to ameliorate their abysmal total.

Those points alone lead many Lions' enthusiasts to believe that like Martz' Rams at the turn of the millennium, the Lions don't necessarily need a good defense since their offense can carry them to the playoffs.

And on top of that, the Lions have a defensive-minded coach who figures to improve the standing of the league's 29th defense.

Here are a few things that have to happen for the Lions to make it to 10 wins:

Indeed They Can Run It, Run It:

The Lions run game finished with 1129 yards last season, which was the lowest total in the NFL.

16 running backs finished above that number last year.

The Lions didn't invest a lot but gather some experienced running backs to alleviate some of the burden in the case that Jones is out of the lineup for prolonged periods of time.

If Jones is healthy, he is due for a breakout campaign. Not only is he a capable running back, the reason why he can be a real asset to this offense is his catching ability. Even though he only played 12 games in 2006, he still had 61 receptions and finished fourth in the NFL in YAC.

But the Lions have some versatility now, too. Not that Martz runs the ball a whole heck of a lot, the home run option and the tough yards options are there now. The latter should come in handy.

Can Somebody Block?:

Kitna felt a season in the shoes of David Carr last season and if the Lions are going places, the line has to step up.

The good news is that the Lions should have more contributors.

Left tackle, Jeff Backus and center, Dominic Raiola, are sturdy. Guard Damien Woody, who a disappointment last season because of weight issues, has shed some pounds and could recover his Pro Bowl form. At right tackle, the Lions acquired Broncos castoff, George Foster, who is better than what they've had there in the past.

Assuming everything goes as planned, that leaves only one whole. And assuming that hole is fixed by veteran Edwin Mulitalo or prospect Stephen Peterman, the Lions won't allow 63 sacks again.

The Explosive Offense:

Don't get it twisted: the Lions offense still has a long way to go to get to The Greatest Show On Turf.

Kitna has to cut down on his interceptions and pick up his efficiency. That is critical for this offense and definitely is not a given considering Kitna has only three more touchdown passes than interceptions in his career.

The other key for this offense is Calvin Johnson. Considering he got into camp a little late and the fact that wide receivers typically take a while to develop as rookies, he won't be Randy Moss right off the bat. In the meantime, Shaun McDonald, another good inside receiver, has to play at a high level.

Martz' offense only becomes dangerous when they are multiple receiving options who can burn opponents on every play. The Lions have the weapons but they have to get everyone assimilated into this offense and on the same page before we can even conjecture whether they are close to the Rams of recent memory.
And What About The Defense:

Well if the offense is scary good, then the defense doesn't have to be Baltimore Ravens-good.

Keep in mind that the Tampa-2/Cover-2 type of defense that the Lions are employing puts a premium on the defensive line and places less importance on everyone else.

The Lions could have one of the league's best d-lines, depending on if Shaun Rogers keeps his weight down. If he does, with Redding and Shaun Cody, the Lions will shoot the gaps as good as anyone.

On the ends, the Lions are counting on a couple of unproven guys. Dewayne White got paid like he was a sure thing but he mostly played as a situational pass rusher in Tampa Bay. The end opposite of him, Kalimba Edwards, has 23 sacks in five seasons and the Lions are still waiting for him to break out. The Lions need a steady pass rushing presence from these two or the defense will fail.

In the back seven, there are a lot of question marks.

At linebacker, Sims is solid, but you can't count on much outside of him. The coaching staff is high on Paris Lenon, who is slated to start in the middle, but he is unproven as a quality starter. The other vacancy will be split by Boss Bailey and Alex Lewis, who should be adequate between the two of them.

The Lions are Nicole Ritchie-thin at cornerback and are relying heavily on Fernando Bryant to stay healthy. He is a good fit for this defense but he has only played in a full 16 games in three of his eight seasons. The other starting spot will be up to Stanley Wilson or Travis Fisher, both of whom are probably better suited for the nickel role.

At safety, sophomore Daniel Bullocks looks like a keeper but there are higher hopes for Kennedy. He used to be a body rocker but didn't make many jarring hits last year.

If the defensive line isn't good, this defense could be worse than last year. The good news is that with a high-octane offense, this unit will get plenty of time on the field to learn and hopefully grow.

Biggest Weakness: Winning Experience - Similar to the New York Knicks current roster, the Lions have a lot of talent but nobody who has a winning track record.

Offensive X-Factor: Kevin Jones - Bell and Duckett are nice additions but Jones is the best receiver out of the backfield and needs to stay on the field to make this offense fully effective.

Defensive X-Factor: Fernando Bryant - Take your pick off of this defense, but Bryant's importance to the defense is crucial. At one point in his career, you could argue he was a No. 1 cornerback and if he endures injuries or doesn't play well this season, the Lions will allow more passing yards than they gain.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Now before you look at me as if I just told you that subprime mortgage lending is a good idea, hear me out: you can get excellent value with Kevin Jones right now.

He is recovering from a Lisfranc foot injury that might take him well into training camp to fully recover, which means that you have to monitor this situation closely, but Brian Westbrook bounced back from this type of sprain to post a huge year last year.

Now here are the facts: in 12 games last year, he finished 689 yards rushing and 520 yards receiving with eight touchdowns while ranking fourth in yards-after-catch. Projected over a full season, that is 1600 yards and 10 touchdowns.

But what gives him more potential than just a poor man's Brian Westbrook is that this offense - and the offensive line - will be improved.

Did Martz use a power back in St. Louis in the red zone? Did Martz ever opt to use running backs that can't catch? Don't worry so much about Duckett and Bell; at the very least, Jones should be an excellent yardage option.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

The Kansas City Chiefs needed to catch more breaks than Paris Hilton at an STD test to make the playoffs on the final week of the regular season and thanks to the Denver Broncos failure against the San Francisco 49ers - among other things - the Chiefs made it in.

One week does not sum up a season, especially for the Broncos, who grew, shrunk, impressed and disappointed throughout all of last season.

They started on a positive tip, stifling their opponents defensive and holding them to 10 points or less for the first seven weeks.

But then the Broncos faced their kryptonite, the Indianapolis Colts. They were shook and made into a slave in the page of the Colts rhyme book, which hurt their confidence the rest of the way.

A large part of the problem was quarterback Jake Plummer, who was having his worst season as a member of the Denver Broncos. His completion percentage was just at 55.2% and his quarterback rating, which hovered around 90 in his three previous seasons, finished at 68.8. More importantly, his interceptions outnumbered his touchdowns for the first time in Denver.

Compounding the problems was the backfield, which has traditionally always been a strength.

The Bells, Tatum and Mike were just barely adequate, although Shanahan didn't have confidence in either one. Interestingly enough, when Tatum got hurt in the Colts game, both he and the offense were never the same afterwards. Tatum battled turf toes, which is a major hindrance for his home run speed.

After starting 7-2, then slipping into a two-game losing streak, Shanahan felt he had nothing to lose by inserting rookie quarterback, Jay Cutler, into the starting lineup.

Cutler was thrown into the fire and lost his first two games to eventual playoff teams, Seattle and San Diego. But even so, Cutler gave the Broncos a better chance to win than Plummer, and seemed more comfortable starting than most other rookie quarterbacks.

For the first time in a while, the Broncos offensive line was not a strong unit. The coaches weren't too happy with the performance of tackle George Foster, while the Broncos lost their other tackle, Matt Lepsis, for the season after six games. Cutler was sacked 13 times in five games and even though they only allowed 31 sacks, that was still their most allowed since 2002.

On defense, the Broncos finally found a couple of legitimate cornerbacks to complement All-Pro Champ Bailey. Dominique Foxworth was a solid nickelback while Darrent Williams, who nailed down the starting role opposite of Bailey, was also a nice boost as a punt returner.

The main issue with the Broncos defense is the same issues it has been for last five years: they don't generate enough pressure.

Quarterbacks frequently had a lot of time to pick apart their secondary and even though they had a talent group of defensive backs, they were asked to cover too long.

This is one of the reasons that the Colts and their prolific passing game have dominated the Broncos (see Colts 2007 game-winning drive versus Denver).

Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers: Broncos Pass Rush

The Broncos defense has been right around 35 sacks per season over the past five years but their pressure has been far from consistent.

While they did have their share of sack artists last year (Elvis Dumervil - 8.5, Ebenezer Ekuban - 7, Kenard Lang - 6), nobody will ever mix up the Broncos' pass rush with the San Diego Chargers.

In 2005, the Broncos line accounted for a measly 15 sacks.

There is no semblance of dominance here. Another way of saying that is that there is no real consistency.

Against New England, Indianapolis, Seattle and both San Diego contests, the Broncos accumulated only four sacks, three of which were by the defensive line.

Last year - and for the last few years - the Broncos have had a number of quality parts along the long (Trevor Pryce and Reggie Hayward to name a couple) but they haven't had a cornerstone.

As of now, the Broncos have a few complementing pieces who can generate sacks, but don't necessarily open up opportunities for others.

Players like Tommie Harris or Julius Peppers - obvious franchise players that are not readily available - are the type of players that could headline this unit. These type of guys attract attention on every single snap, which will make the complementary pieces like Dumervil, Ekuban and Lang significantly better.

Clearly, the Broncos agree since they spent their first two draft picks (and three of their four) on defensive linemen, in search of that one special guy who can help take this unit - and defense - to the next level.

What Happened To That Running Back Factory?:

On draft day, many people speculated that Tatum Bell would eventually put up Clinton Portis numbers. Alright, so that didn't work out.

For years, the Broncos have always had an in-house solution in the backfield. From Terrell Davis, to Portis, to Orlandis Gary, to Reuben Droughs to Mike Anderson. Last year, they it was supposed to be one of the Bells but the plan didn't come to fruition.
So for the first time in a while, the Broncos have looked to free agency to fill their starting spot and they've caught a big fish this year.

At an NFL combine, Travis Henry probably wouldn't rank first in many categories. But Henry is 'very good' at almost everything and is a perfect fit for the Broncos.

For starters, Henry's 5-year/$22.5 million contract is very reasonable given the demands of many other backs.

Secondly, Henry has proven that he can handle wear and tear, as well as adversity, particularly after Buffalo ditched him. He has also shown a willingness to learn and improve on his weaknesses. After three NFL seasons, Henry was labeled as a fumbler after coughing up 13 in his first three years. He has only lost two since.

Henry has worked in a similar offense before and should post some career-highs in Denver.

Should I Be Worried About Cutler?:

It might not be fair to call Jake Plummer a scumbag, but I am going to shortly.

The Broncos have been a playoff team and an AFC contender for the past four seasons with Jake Plummer. With that scumbag under center, Broncos fans and coaches have been holding their breath each week hoping that Plummer doesn't cost them the game.

With Cutler leading the way, the Broncos can't - and won't - be worse. The Broncos will be a more confident team behind Cutler, who is a natural leader and has legitimate franchise quarterback talent.

Expect him to have some rough patches, but the Broncos are adept at dealing with a quarterback that can give away the game at any point.

The Broncos will go as far as Cutler can take them this year and while he won't have to win them many games, he should be ready to. A full offseason of work will speed up his growth and considering his poise in the final two games last season, as well as the confidence everyone surrounding the team is investing in him, I wouldn't be too worried.

Super Bowl Bound:

The Broncos offensive line, running game and passing game will be much better this season.

I've dealt with the quarterback and running back situation, so let's move on to the other parts.

While Rod Smith's career may be on the fringes, the Broncos finally have enough receiving weapons with or without him.

Javon Walker put his injuries behind him and showed his playmaking ability last year, which makes him the top target. Behind him, there are injury concerns all the way around.

Brandon Marshall looks like the best No. 2 candidate, but he has battled various minor injuries that have kept him from repetitions on the field. Domenik Hixon could be a good complement, but missed his entire rookie campaign. Smith and free agent Brandon Stokley are also off serious injuries from a year ago.

If all healthy, the Broncos should have a corps that can range from adequate to dangerous.

The Broncos have a numbers of tight ends who can alleviate pressure and add to the passing game. Tony Scheffler, who recovering from a broken foot, is an excellent receiving tight end with downfield capabilities. The Broncos signed free agent Daniel Graham, who is an excellent blocker and a decent receiver.

The Broncos have so many passing options here that Cutler could have a field day once he finds his feet. And the Broncos will always have a potent run game to fall back on.

On defense, the Broncos have done a makeover on their defensive line, adding Sam Adams, Jimmy Kennedy, Tim Crowder and Jarvis Moss. The most important addition may be the one on the sidelines as the Broncos hired an excellent defensive coordinator in Jim Bates.

The Broncos have been too much of a basic defense under Larry Coyer.

Adams had arthroscopic knee surgery in the offseason and the hope is that he still has something left in the tank. If he does, combined with a healthy Gerard Warren, the Broncos will once again clog the gaps in the center of the line.

The Broncos are hoping that Moss can be special for them right off the bat. If he is, combined with the attention that Adams and Warren should receive, the pass rush should be improved. At the very least, the Broncos have enough talent to keep mixing in players until they find the right rotation.

The linebacking corp - also a strength for so many recent seasons - poses a couple of trepidations.

Defensive leader and captain, Al Wilson, was released and will be replaced in the middle by D.J. Williams. Williams has never played there before but he has the talent to be an asset in the middle as well.

The major problem is that with Williams shifting to the inside, it leaves a gaping hole on the outside. Warrick Holdman, who started in Washington last season, will probably keep the job. He's not a game-breaker but he should be decent.

After the tragic death of Darrent Williams, the Broncos bounced back quickly and acquired a former Pro Bowler, Dre Bly. He'll see a lot of passes his way since no one throws at Bailey but should be able to hold his own. Sometimes he's overly aggressive and gives up big plays as a result.

With an improved scheme and the additions of Moss and Bly, the Broncos defense also has taken steps in a positive direction.

The offense and defense are both Super Bowl caliber. There is balance all the way through and this can go to the Super Bowl if Cutler can take them there.

New England Patriots Killers:

Not many teams have defeated the Patriots in the past six seasons but the Broncos are one team that has their number.

They have faced each other five times since 2001 and the Broncos have won four of the meetings.

The Broncos know how to beat New England and are one of the few teams that will be capable of stopping them this year.

But everything works in reverse if the Broncos have to face the Colts in the playoffs...

Biggest Weakness: Proven Commodities At QB, DE, OLB - The Broncos are a veteran team but with Cutler, a influx of young defensive ends and some anxiety at the spot that DJ Williams vacated, there aren't any proven solution quite yet.

Offensive X-Factor: Jay Cutler - Quite simply, the Broncos will go as far as he can take them. That might be the third time in this article I've said that.

Defensive X-Factor: Jim Bates - Bates worked magic in Miami and then Green Bay. The Broncos need his touch to get them to the next level.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

For the past decade, the Denver backfield has been a fantasy gold mine. Every year, experts are dissecting how the carries will be shared and who might possibly be the main guy. Well now that Travis Henry is that guy, people are waiting until rounds two or three to pick him up.

Broncos running backs have rarely made it past round two in recent drafts and the guys with Henry's talent have usually been top five or six.

Henry should finish around 1500 yards rushing with upwards of more than seven touchdowns.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

No one will ever mix up Drew Bledsoe with Michael Vick on the football field but for most of his career, Bledsoe's arm and pin-point accuracy made up for his immobility. Last season, that wasn't the case.

After a lot of hype for an offense that had just acquired Terrell Owens, the Dallas Cowboys were too hot-and-cold under Bledsoe to be taken seriously.

In Week 7, head coach Bill Parcells made a bold move that would eventually save the Cowboys season by giving Bledsoe the Looney Tunes hook in favor of unproven Tony Romo.

When Romo entered in the second half, it looked like a lame decision initially but the Cowboys went on to win five of their next six games and introduced some much-needed optimism.

The change at QB reignited the passing game as Romo started to connect with Owens, Terry Glenn and Jason Witten much more often.

Owens had 22 receptions for 277 yards in the five games prior to the Giants game and had 41 catches and 540 in the six games after, once Romo took over.

More importantly, Romo's mobility and quicker release took a load off of the offensive line.

Though Romo struggled down the home stretch and, of course, bobbled a fairly key extra point hold, he has still shown enough to make people believe that he can be a franchise quarterback.

The Cowboys thrived with their ground attack as Julius Jones pieced together a full, healthy season. He topped the 1000-yard mark for the first-time and was greatly helped by Marion Barber III, who spelled him and picked up the tough yards.

The tandem combined for 1738 yards and 18 touchdowns and were an underrated 1-2 punch.

On defense, the Cowboys secondary and pass rush were the story of the season.

The Cowboys safeties were in many highlight packs, usually on the wrong end, chasing receivers from behind. The Cowboys allowed 25 passing touchdowns, which was the third highest total in the NFL.

Part of what factored into that problem was the lack of a pass rush. Once Greg Ellis was lost for the season - after making an excellent transition to outside linebacker - all of the blocking attention was focused on DeMarcus Ware. First-round pick, Bobby Carpenter, who was expected to man the outside role from the jump, didn't prove to be much of a contributor.

Free safety was another issue as rookie Pat Watkins and veteran Roy Williams were victimized all season long.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Cowboys Pass Defense

Roy Williams had a sub par season, mostly because he didn't play with an adequate safety partner last year. Williams is much stronger closer to the line of scrimmage but was forced to play further back to try and cover up for his counterpart.

Watkins is more of a linebacker and is slow to begin with, but the Cowboys had no other options.

While the Cowboys rush defense allowed only five runs of 20 yards or longer, which was the third-lowest total in the NFL, they allowed 14 passing plays of 40 yards or longer, which was the third-highest total.

Permitting so many deep passing plays clearly factored in their yards-per-catch allowed, which was the second worst in the NFL (12.4).

The secondary finished with a total of 12 interceptions, which leaves much to be desired especially since the two starting corners, Anthony Henry and Terrence Newman, only combined for a total of three.

The Cowboys had a stout rushing attack and forced their opponents to be one-dimensional, and in some cases, predictable, but the even though the Cowboys were expecting the pass, they still couldn't stop it.

Where Are The Cowboys On The Contender Chart?:

For starters, there is no real, copyrighted, Contender Chart, but for argument's sake, where do the Cowboys stand in comparison to the Super Bowl frontrunners?

They should have been in the second round of the playoffs and common sense tells us that they would have finished with a better record had Romo been the fulltime starter from Week One.

You can also factor in Owens' broken hand, which led to a number of dropped passes, as well as the injury to Ellis.

Before we make any assessments, let's take a look at how they have improved.

On defense, the Cowboys added first-round pick, Anthony Spencer, who could be another DeMarcus Ware. If you combine that fact, along with the possible return of Greg Ellis and the hiring of defensive guru, Wade Phillips, and you can assume that the front seven will be a terror.

The remaining parts of the Cowboys front seven really jelled last season and there is no question that they were stout against the run.

Nose tackle, Jason Ferguson, played better in his second season in Dallas while the Cowboys had two quality ends emerge, in Marcus Spears and Chris Canty, the latter being more of a surprise since Spears had been building towards that for a while.

With a quality line up front, two/three pass rushing threats on the outside and two tackling machines in Bradie James and Akin Ayodele on the inside, the front seven definitely looks stronger.

On the back end, the Cowboys added free safety Ken Hamlin, which is a definite upgrade over what was used last season, but keep your expectations tempered. Hamlin's former team, the Seattle Seahawks, opted to upgrade at his position as well, which means they didn't think too highly of him.

Even so, the addition of Hamlin takes a lot of things off of Williams' to-do list and should allow him to play closer to the front lines where he is most comfortable.

The two biggest weaknesses on defense were the pass rush and the free safety spot and the Cowboys upgraded both.

On offense, the only significant changes the Cowboys made were on the offensive line.

Leonard Davis, a high-end bust in Arizona, was signed for near David Beckham money as the Cowboys believe that his lack of growth stemmed from coaching.

He is taking over Marco Rivera's spot at right guard, who was released due to back issues.

The Cowboys have two Pro Bowlers with Flozell Adams at left tackle and Andre Gurode at center and a solid right tackle in Marc Colombo. If Davis is who the Cowboys believe he is, the Cowboys will have improved on their front lines.

But aside from the offensive line, we pretty much know what to expect from the rest of the offensive parts.

You can expect Owens to have a better season, now that his hand is healed, while Glenn has posted back-to-back 1000-yard campaigns.

At tight end, the Cowboys have a Pro Bowl caliber tight end with Witten and at this point, we know what the Cowboys are going to get out of Barber and Jones.

Aside from a few minor parts who could step up to give this offense other options, such as Patrick Crayton or second tight end, Anthony Fasano, the real difference-maker in this offense is Romo.

Like many teams in the NFL, they only go as far as their quarterback.

Outside of the coaching staff, there isn't much turnover on this team so there aren't too many questions marks.

The main burning question has to be: can Romo handle the pressure?

We've seen many quarterbacks step into a deflated situation, play lights out when the pressure was off and crumble the following year when they were faced with greater expectations.

Is that what happened to Romo in the second half of last season, when he realized that Aikman-like expectations were on his shoulders?

The main story in Dallas is no longer Owens, or a potential Owens-Parcells confrontation, or Parcells possible retirement. All eyes are on Romo since it is up to him how big of a dent the Cowboys will make on the 2007 season.

The Players' Coach:

With guys like Tony Dungy and Lovie Smith thriving, players' coaches are the fad right now. But keep in mind that the NFL is a league of trends.

Players' coaches have a tendency to lose their teams if the playoff appearances are not steady. Issues such as discipline, penalties and focus can also wane since players' coaches are not as demanding.

Sure, the players love it but that is not necessarily a good thing. Kids like when their parents or teachers are lenient because it means there is more they can get away with.

Once these players' coaches start failing more frequently, expect the dictators to make their way back.

Biggest Weakness: Depth - The Cowboys don't have much depth in a few areas (wide receiver, inside linebacker, cornerback) and if the front lines get nicked up, the Cowboys will experience a big drop-off with the backups.

Offensive X-Factor: Tony Romo - Romo has to be consistently good, something that many starting quarterbacks struggle to do. If the Cowboys are wondering what they will get out of him each week, they won't be contending this year.

Defensive X-Factor: Anthony Spencer - The Cowboys are hoping that Spencer is the Shaun Phillips to their Shawne Merriman (DeMarcus Ware). If that's the case, their pass rush under Wade Phillips will be excellent.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

There are a few options on this team whose values are low and offer a good price tag for what they could return.

On offense, Jason Witten is not making the top 10 tight ends in the fantasy rankings but he should be up there. The emergence of Marion Barber really cut into his touchdown total last season. He still has all the tools and a new offensive coordinator should ensure that he isn't a forgotten man. He is money in the bank for 750 yards - its just a question of how many touchdowns can he pull.

Secondly, take a look at Patrick Crayton, who should be undrafted in most leagues. Terry Glenn is off back-to-back healthy seasons and has never had three consecutive full seasons. He is still an effective player but he did just have arthroscopic knee surgery to ease some pain in the area. Crayton's value will shoot up should Glenn miss time.

On defense, the Cowboys team defense should be fairly good. They aren't the Ravens or the Bears, and you would probably have to sit them when they played the Eagles, but this defense can shut offenses down. Teams who rely on rushing and don't threaten with a passing game play right into this defense's strengths.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

Outside of Lindsay Lohan's character in her 2006 whiff Just My Luck - which nobody saw or cared about - only the Cleveland Browns have had worse string of luck.

The franchise has been playing as poorly as the only other thing we immediately associate with the color brown, and their fortunes did not turn for the better in 2006.

It started with prized free agent center, LeCharles Bentley, who blew out his knee roughly 10 seconds after he received a direct deposit for the guaranteed money in his $36 million deal.

Injuries were a consistent theme for the Browns in 2006 and they came in many fashions.

Veteran cornerback, Daylon McCutcheon missed all of 2006 with a knee injury, while 2005 prized free agent cornerback, Gary Baxter, became the first player in NFL history to tear patellar tendons in both knees on the same play. Free safety Brian Russell, and another corner, Leigh Bodden, were also touched up with injuries.

On offense, the Browns also played without top wideout, Joe Jurevicius, for several weeks.

You can't take that many key players off a team and still expect to compete.

But the Browns have failed in other areas, most notably, player drafting. Considering this team has been selecting during the first hour on Draft day since they started up again in Cleveland, they haven't harvested many quality prospects.

Player development has also been an issue, as demonstrated last season.

Third-round pick, Travis Wilson, didn't get much playing time even though the Browns are thin at wide receiver. He only finished with two receptions. Two other rookies, running back Jerome Harrison and guard Isaac Sowells, also should have seen more playing time but the coaching staff was more concerned with wins, and short term goals.

But it wasn't all sour for Cleveland; they did hit the bull's-eye with linebackers Kamerion Wimbley, who finished with 11 sacks as a rookie, D'Qwell Jackson, who finished third on the team with 93 tackles, and Leon Williams, who is the top backup at the position.

Also, the development of safeties Brodney Pool and Sean Jones came to an end and the result was a fairly good product. Jones had a decent case for the Pro Bowl, leading the team with 111 tackles and five interceptions, along with half a sack and one fumble recovery.

Growth on offense was not as noticeable. The Browns quarterback situation elucidated and now its clear that neither Charlie Frye nor Derek Anderson are franchise quarterbacks. Free agent tackle Kevin Shaffer is a big waste of $36 million, while supposed star-in-the-making, receiver Braylon Edwards, dropped many key passes.

The good news was that tight end Kellen Winslow was finally healthy and led the team with 89 receptions.

Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers: Cleveland Browns Draft History

Since 1999, they have been one of the poorest drafting teams of all-time. Making that fact worse is the detail that the Browns have been calling names in the first hour on draft throughout most of their second term in the NFL.

The Browns have amassed 40 wins in eight seasons with only one winning season (9 wins), meaning that they have had the top pick in the draft twice and have been picking sixth or better five times.

From 1999-2001, the only quality players they drafted were Gerard Warren and Anthony Henry. They had 32 picks in those three drafts, the aforementioned two are the only impact players on any NFL rosters. It should be noted that Warren was largely a bust in Cleveland.

1999 produced: Tim Couch, Kevin Johnson, Rahim Abdullah, Daylon McCutcheon, Marquis Smith, Wali Rainer, Darrin Chiaverini, Marcus Spriggs, Kendall Ogle, James Dearth, Tarleton and Madre Hill.

Aside from Johnson and McCutcheon, who weren't much more than solid for a short period of time, the Browns came up empty-handed.

2000 produced: Courtney Brown, Dennis Northcutt, Travis Prentice, JaJuan Dawson, Lewis Sanders, Aaron Shea, Anthony Malbrough, Lamar Chapman, Spergon Wynn, Brad Bedell, Manuia Savea, Eric Chandler and Rashidi Barnes.

This was a real burn job. No starters and the top prize being Dennis Northcutt, who finished his career in Cleveland with 276 receptions.

2001 was a bit better: Gerard Warren, Quincy Morgan, James Jackson, Anthony Henry, Jeremiah Pharms, Michael Jameson, Paul Zukauskas and Andre King.

I urge you to re-read some of these names. So many of them came and went without so much as even a sound.

From 2002-2004, the Browns hit with Melvin Fowler, Jeff Faine, Kellen Winslow and Sean Jones. That's four out of 21 - and two of which play for other teams.

By this point, even the law of averages was spitting in the Browns face.

So let me sum this up: from 1999-2004, the Browns had 54 picks (an average of nine selections per draft) and the only prospects that played well enough for them to keep long term were Kellen Winslow and Sean Jones. And with Winslow, they discussed out clauses after he pulled a Ben Roethlisberger.

Ouch.

Yes, the Browns have had terrible injury luck. They have also employed a blind, deaf and dumb scouting staff that has screwed over the foundation of this team for years. The NFL Draft is where you build your team and that is largely why the Browns only have 40 wins since returning to the NFL.

A Stroke Of Luck:

If you believe in fate, karma, kismet and Meg Ryan movies, then maybe you'll believe that the Browns finally caught a break that can turn their franchise around.

I don't believe in Meg Ryan movies - although Courage Under Fire was good - but I do believe that when Brady Quinn dropped slid down the draft board and the Browns traded up to get him, I believe it changed the course of their franchise.

Call it fate, or just call it drafting a quarterback that legitimately has a chance to make an impact, but the Browns will remember this day as the day their fortunes turned.

Without question, the Browns should start him right off the bat. There's no secret; we all know he is going to take over the reigns this season so there is no reason to throw Frye or Anderson into the job and create a lame-duck situation.

The Browns offense is not your typical 4-12 unit. With the return of LeCharles Bentley, the signing of Eric Steinbach and the drafting of Joe Thomas, the Browns should have the protection in place for Quinn. It's not like he's stepping in behind the Texans line and getting murdered.

In the passing game, Quinn will have targets to work with. Braylon Edwards has apparently matured and is the big-play wideout. Jurevicius is much more reliable as the No. 2. At tight end, Winslow proved to be a premier safety valve for the Browns quarterbacks last season, and as long as he's healthy, will give Quinn more than enough to work with.

The running game is upgraded, as odd as that sounds since Jamal Lewis is taking over. The Browns were a terrible rushing team last year and Lewis, even in a mediocre season, had two more rushing touchdowns (9) than the Browns whole team (7). He is far less hesitant than his predecessors and he is working with a good offensive line.

Quinn is supposed to be the most NFL ready quarterback in this year's class. We will find out shortly.

How's The League's 25th-Ranked Defense Coming Along:

So after I mashed the Browns for a terrible drafting history, I will complement them for last year's work.

In one draft, the Browns plucked Kamerion Wimbley, D'Qwell Jackson and Leon Williams. Wimbley and Jackson should start while Williams will be a top backup. That's how you lay the foundation for future success.

Combined those young studs with tackling machine Andra Davis and veteran Willie McGinest. Two years ago, when the Romeo Crennel first took over the head coaching job and switched the defense to a 3-4, the Browns were short on linebackers. Now this is the defense's strong suit.

Up front, though, the Browns are still inadequate. 39-year-old nose tackle, Ted Washington, could give out at any second, which would cripple the defense. Orpheus Roye, who at 34, looks like a young sprite compared to Washington, has played 11 seasons in the NFL. Robaire Smith, the other of the three starters, is the only significant addition to this unit - of course, using the word 'significant' loosely.

The secondary is also somewhat of a question mark. They get a boost with addition of talented second-round pick, Eric Wright, but would get an even bigger shot in the arm if Gary Baxter came back and played well. He probably won't be around at the start of the season.

That throws Wright right into the fire and he'll start opposite of Leigh Bodden. The jury is still out on him as well.

After a breakout year, expectations will be even higher for strong safety, Sean Jones. The bar is also raised for his partner, Brodney Pool, after the Brian Russell exited via free agency. On talent alone, both are up to the task and could be a very good, young duo.

Four Wins Again?:

Here's breaking news: the Browns will struggle this season.

Listen, everybody has to walk before they recklessly ride motorcycles around a parking lot and the Browns are no different. But if they start Quinn from the jump, the Browns should experience a growth spurt in the second half of the season. If they can do that, Crennel's job will probably be safe but more importantly, it will prove that their luck has finally changed and that they have in fact turned the corner on this horrible stretch of losing.

Biggest Weakness: Leadership - This is a young squad who is building their chemistry right now. Who will step up and take the reigns?

Offensive X-Factor: Brady Quinn - Look at Vince Young, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler, and the three teams that drafted them last season. Quinn has sparked of optimism in Cleveland and needs to back it on the field.

Defensive X-Factor: Brodney Pool - The Browns gave up 20 touchdowns through the air last season and need to cut that down. Pool has the potential to be a game-changer.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Am I going to recommend you draft Jamal Lewis? Yes, I am. Remember, this is a buy low recommendation, and his value is pretty low at this point. On paper, the Browns have a pretty good offensive line and Lewis is one more year removed from a serious ankle injury. Is he still a 2000-yard running back? No. But he did finish with 1132 rushing yards and nine touchdowns last season. Don't expect those numbers to go way up, mostly because his team will be playing from behind more than the Ravens did, but expecting around 1200 yards and 8-10 touchdowns is reasonable - Reuben Droughns, who is an inferior running back, did it two years ago in a worse rendition of this offense.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In the Rear View Mirror:

After winning the AFC North in 2005, the Cincinnati Bengals were on track to become a Super Bowl contender in 2006. But in the offseason, the Bengals had more arrests than a full season of The Wire and stepped backward, instead of forwards. After winning 11 games in '05, they topped out at 8 last year.

Entailing the league's fourth-best scoring offense, the Bengals main focus in the offseason was supposed to be the defense.

Management did address a few issues - signing veteran tackle Sam Adams, safety Dexter Jackson and drafting cornerback Johnathan Joseph - but improvements were scant.

In '05, the defense allowed 338.7 yards-per-game and that average jumped to 355.1 in '06.

Part of the problem was right in the heart of the defense, where the Bengals were counting on the growth of two young linebackers: David Pollack and Odell Thurman.

Thurman was suspended for the year after a drunken driving charged was tacked onto a long laundry list, while Pollack was also gone for the season with a neck injury (suffered in Week One).

The Bengals were seemingly left thin but versatile backup Landon Johnson, along with former CFL player, Rashad Jeanty, and supplemental draft pick, Ahmad Brooks, all had solid seasons at linebacker.

The back end of the defense turned from strength to weakness in 2006, mostly because of substandard seasons from cornerbacks Deltha O'Neal and Tory James.

O'Neal, who went to the Pro Bowl in 2005, lost his confidence.

The result was that the Bengals' defense, which used a league-leading 44 takeaways and 31 interceptions in 2005 to mask deficiencies, didn't manufacture nearly as many drive-stopping plays in 2006. In both of the last two seasons, the Bengals have given up a ton of yardage but takeaways ended drives in 2005; those stops turned into points in 2006.

On offense, Palmer was not rusty at all and wasn't hampered mentally by his major knee injury. The Bengals came flying out of the gate with three wins but quickly lost the wind in their sails when they followed that up with a 1-5 stretch.

Reflecting back on their schedule, the Bengals were a very similar outfit to the 2005 unit. For the most part, they beat the teams they should have, such as Cleveland, Oakland and Carolina, and lost to more formidable opponents, such as New England, Indianapolis, San Diego and Denver.

Cincy's offense was clearly limited by a couple of key injuries. On the offensive line, the Bengals had no rhythm as Richie Braham and Willie Anderson struggled to stay healthy. Another key loss was in the backfield, where the Bengals were without third-down back, Chris Perry. He is an underrated weapon but has only played in 22 games in three seasons.

Heading forward, the Bengals offense is Super Bowl-ready. Now it's just a matter of whether defensive guru, Marvin Lewis, can get the defense to a similar level.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Bengals Rush Defense

After observing the talent on the Bengals' defense, one might ask themselves the question: why has this unit ranked among the five worst defenses in the NFL during the past two seasons?

Tory James and Deltha O'Neal are decent, Madieu Williams and Dexter Jackson are a good tandem at safety, the linebacking corps is loading with young up-and-coming prospects, and the Bengals have two quality ends in Robert Geathers and Justin Smith.

And you would be right with that observation.

But where the Bengals have been weak is right in the middle of their defensive line.

On the surface, the rushing defense might not look so bad. It finished ranked 15th overall. But as you look at the yards-per-carry average (4.2, ranked 20th), rushing first downs (109, ranked 22nd) and rushing touchdowns allowed (15, ranked 24th), the defense starts to creep into the lower half.

The signing of Sam Adams, a big road block tackle, was supposed to plug some of these holes but he was not the solution.

The more you examine the statistics from the rushing defense, the more it is evident that the performance of the rushing defense was critical in determining wins or losses.

In the Bengals eight wins, they allowed only two teams to top 100 yards rushing. In those wins, they permitted 84.5 yards on the ground per game.

In the Bengals eight losses, all eight opponents surpassed 100 net yards rushing and the Bengals allowed 148 yards rushing per game - a difference of nearly 64 yards per game from their wins.

The side effects of being gashed by an opponent's ground game is that the all important time of possession will be lost.

The Bengals defense is in the same category as the Titans, Lions, Raiders, Bills and Buccaneers when it comes to spending time on the field. No defense spends more time than those six squads.

At times last year, the Bengals offense was frustrated on the sidelines watching their opponent bludgeon the defense. And when the offense stepped on the field, they were out of rhythm.

For the Bengals to be a Super Bowl contender, the time of possession scales need to be tipped in the opposite direction.

Addressing The Defensive Tackles:
One of the Bengals priorities in the offseason was upgrading the position that I was just talking about: the defensive tackles.

The first order of business was parting ways with Adams, who was over-the-hill to begin with but never met expectations.

The Bengals have a contingency plan in second-year prospect, Domata Peko, who earned playing time ahead of Adams last year. The coaches are high on him, which should indicate an upgrade at the starting level.

The Bengals also added Kenderick Allen, a noted run-stuffer, and Michael Myers for depth. As the Bengals were getting worn down last year, depth was not a luxury at this position. The Bengals still don't have anyone to push the pocket at this position but they should be stronger against the run.

The Rest Of The Defense:

It has been five years since the Bengals have finished with more than 37 sacks as a defense and it will undoubtedly be one of the bigger concerns heading into 2007.

They finished with 35 last year but half of them came from two defensive ends, Justin Smith and Robert Geathers, while only one other player finished with more than three.

There is a lot of talent around but it can quickly go to waste if they have to defend for prolonged periods of time.

At cornerback, another first-round pick was spent to secure the passing defense. It should also help motivate O'Neal, who struggled last season. At the back end of the secondary, with Madieu Williams fresh off a bounce-back season (88 TKL, 3 INT, 2 FF), there is confidence in the safety tandem, although they might miss the versatility of Kevin Kaesviharn, who left as a free agent.

At linebacker, the Bengals will once again be without David Pollack for the season but they should have the depth to deal with that loss this time. More importantly than anything, there isn't a ton of juggling at this position and the three or four players who will be battling for starter's roles know who they are and what their potential roles will be. Last season, the Bengals had to shift players around because of unexpected circumstances (Pollack injury, Thurman suspension). The return of Thurman should provide a big boost; he led the team in tackles two years ago.

How Good Is The Bengals Offense?:

In 2005, just before Palmer's knee injury, the Bengals offense was clicking and looked as lethal as the Colts unit.

Fast forward a season rife with suspension and injuries and we're left wondering if the Bengals can regain their 2005 form and continue to climb higher.

The answer to that question is the same answer that Lindsay Lohan gives to cocaine (allegedly): yes.

The Bengals offensive line was a top-five unit prior to last season and is still a premier front five, even though they lost guard Eric Steinbach. There is a lot of continuity and chemistry here.

Palmer has spent an offseason working with his receivers, instead of rehabbing, and, like most of the weapons on this offense, is just entering his prime.

Behind him, is steady Rudi Johnson, who has topped 1300 yards rushing for three seasons in a row, but gets little acclaim on this offense. He has the luxury of following a Pro Bowl fullback, Jeremi Johnson.

The Bengals could really use Chris Perry's versatility, but he will likely start the season battling ankle and shin injuries. His speed, outside running and receiving skills compliment Rudi Johnson very well.

But considering the Bengals spent a second-round pick on Auburn running back, Kenny Irons, they may not be so confident in his return.

The wide receivers will be without Chris Henry (suspension) for the first eight games of the season but they should be more prepared to replace him this year. Antonio Chatman and Tab Perry have been working to plug the No. 3 hole at wide receiver.

At the top of the food chain, receivers Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmanzadeh still haven't maxed out and will continue to get better. Johnson can - and has - done better than last year's totals (1369 receiving, 7 TD) while Houshmanzadeh has worked on his route-running and should narrow the yards disparity between him and Johnson.

The real difference-maker, though, is Chris Henry. As immature as he is off the field, he makes this passing game virtually impossible to defend. Without a threatening receiving tight end, Henry is the team's best red zone option. He has 15 touchdowns In 27 career games and seven of his nine touchdowns last season came in the red zone.

Regular Season Win Total: O/U 9

As mentioned before, the Bengals don't have much trouble stomping the have nots of the NFL and struggle versus quality opponents. But after struggling through an extremely difficult schedule in 2006, the Bengals have a much easier path to the playoffs this year.

The Bengals face only four teams that finished with winning records: @Seattle, New England, NY Jets, and Baltimore.

The Bengals will be favored in home contests versus Arizona, Tennessee, St. Louis, Cleveland and Pittsburgh, which should be considered wins. Throw in a split with Baltimore and a split in the two NE/NYJ home games, which leaves the Bengals three games short of the Over.

On the road, the Bengals go to Cleveland, Seattle, Kansas City (after a bye), Buffalo, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Miami.

At worst, this should be a push, but the Over looks good.

Biggest Weakness: Experience - This is a team with huge expectations but does not have a lot of playoff experience. On defense, the Bengals are going young almost everywhere, which could provide inconsistency.

Offensive X-Factor: Chris Henry - Without a decent pass-catching tight end, and without Chris Perry, the Bengals don't have a third option in the passing game. Henry is that guy and he's pretty good - when he is not suspended.

Defensive X-Factor: Odell Thurman - He's a gifted playmaker from sideline-to-sideline. The Bengals need him to make more game-altering plays on defense.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low
While Chad Johnson will be among the first wideouts taken in your fantasy draft, don't sweat it so much if you are like that guy in the NFL Network commercials, trying to pronounce T.J. Houshmanzadeh's name several rounds later. He is slighted that he doesn't get nearly as much credit as Johnson does and has put in a lot of time to polish up his game in the offseason. Look for his numbers to be much closer to Johnson's this year.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.