Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

The Miami Dolphins were supposed to be a dark horse in the AFC, they were supposed to give the New England Patriots a run for their money and they were supposed to have their most talented starting quarterback since Dan Marino.

Well 'ifs' and 'buts' are apparently not candies and nuts.

After an offseason of injury watch that had Daunte Culpepper in a race with Carson Palmer for amount of knee rehab updates, Culpepper ended up winning.

Unfortunately, while Palmer got on the field and got past his problems, Culpepper was immobile and still hampered, and was shutdown for the season.

You have to give some credit to the Dolphins front office, who traded a second-round pick for him and then a year later, simply cut ties with him. They should also cut ties with the medical staff who suggested that his knee would be fine.

But the Dolphins had a backup plan: they traded a sixth-round pick for Joey Harrington.

That makes two quarterbacks the Dolphins traded for and then released within a year. You can also throw in the Marcus Vick experiment, but I digress.

Harrington became the default starter and although he was better than he was in Detroit, it was clear that he couldn't get comfortable in the offense. Part of the problem is not having a full offseason with the team. The other issue was that his confidence was still low.

On defense, the Dolphins had all the constituents of a playoff team. Their front seven was terrorizing opponents and not only did Zach Thomas and Jason Taylor avoid slowing down, they sped up. Taylor was the Defensive Player of the Year.

The old defensive line didn't break down, as expected, and helped the Dolphins implement one of the top 3-4 outfits.

The secondary benefited from the strong play upfront. They didn't force many turnovers but corners Will Allen and Travis Daniels provided solid coverage. First-round pick Jason Allen, who Nick Saban coached in college, had a terrible rookie season.

The Dolphins had a league-low eight interceptions and only five of those picks came from defensive backs.

The defense carried a big burden as the offense simply couldn't keep up.

Harrington was inconsistent, which meant defenders crept closer to the line to crowd Ronnie Brown. With an average offensive line in front of him, Brown wasn't able to flourish as many had expected in his second season.

And neither was Chris Chambers or Randy McMichael, who also experience sub par seasons because of spotty quarterback play.

Without Culpepper and with Harrington proving to be nothing more than a backup, the once-lofty expectations for the Dolphins dwindled in 2006.

A Year Too Early With That Dark Horse Prediction?:

So we know what happened to the Dolphins last year, when they flopped at the quarterback position and flopped in the win column.

But now the Dolphins may have secured the position.

Veteran Trent Green definitely isn't the Pro Bowler he once was but he could still potentially be the best signal caller this team has had in years.

Once again, like Culpepper, there are injury concerns. But Green is a savvy veteran, one that could awaken the sleepy production from all of the offensive weapons.

Let's be honest for a second. Chris Chambers is definitely not Steve Smith or Marvin Harrison, but he has played pretty well considering he's had to work with the likes of Jay Fiedler and A.J. Feeley.

Marty Booker, who starts opposite him, is also fairly steady. With a good quarterback, this tandem should approach 2000 yards receiving.

If the passing threat is present, look for Ronnie Brown to take off. He's already proven to be a solid running back while opposing defenses have stacked the line of scrimmage. In the past decade, only LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson, Ricky Williams and Jamal Lewis (in his prime) could deal with those kind of settings. Brown is only in his third year and will benefit greatly if Green can simply keep defenses honest.

With Ted Ginn Jr., the Dolphins have enough weapons to make this a more formidable offense than the Dolphins' fans have seen in recent years.

The only question remains is how will the line perform?

The whole front five is under construction and there will be very little continuity here. They will have five new starters.

Vernon Carey, a solid right tackle, is shifting to the left side. L.J. Shelton will take over Carey's former spot. There will be a rookie starter at center and possibly another at right guard, where this is a fierce competition going on.

This is a pretty big red flag (uncertainty on offensive line) considering they will be protecting a 37-year-old quarterback who just finished recovering from a serious concussion.
The Dolphins offensive line coach, Hudson Houck, is one of the best in the business. He's made them overachieve for the past couple of seasons and has his work cut out for him this season.

One area where this team shouldn't have too many concerns is the defensive front seven.

A strength last year, it figures to be even stronger this year.

They will be a bit younger as Matt Roth is ready to step in for veteran Kevin Carter and rookie Paul Soliai can spell Keith Traylor and keep him fresh.

But with Roth stepping into the starting lineup, there isn't much depth on the ends.

The Dolphins big free agent catch was linebacker Joey Porter, who complements Jason Taylor on the outside when they get into the 3-4. Assuming he's healthy, Porter will have a big year and will do his best to prove Pittsburgh wrong for letting him go.

Although the Dolphins ranked third in sacks last season (47), they only had 5.5 from their true linebackers (not including Taylor) and Porter will help boost that stat.

The Dolphins secondary is much weaker than the front lines but since they get help upfront, they can get by with average players.

Travis Daniels is fully healthy and Will Allen is solid. They might not pick a lot of passes but they cover well, which also leads to sacks when quarterbacks can't find anyone open.

The third corner spot will be up to Michael Lehan and probably Andre Goodman, when shoulder problems stop hindering him.

At safety, Renaldo Hill is solid while Yeremiah Bell is a quiet playmaker. He's still a very young player who might prove to be the long term solution at the position if he posts a similar season as in 2006.

The offensive line is a juggling act and they don't exactly have the luxury of protecting an ironman like Brett Favre, but if this unit can gel, the Dolphins won't be far behind the New York Jets in the battle for second place.

So They Didn't Draft Brady Quinn...:

Obviously, whatever turned the Dolphins away from Quinn also deterred a number of other teams, so don't fret so much about that.

The other reason you shouldn't be so down is because the quarterback that they did draft, second-round pick John Beck, looks pretty damn good so far.

Throwing Quinn behind this line in a new offensive scheme probably would have resulted in a mess. At least with the Green/Beck situation, Green can quickly grasp the offense, since he is already familiar with it, and hand over the reigns to Beck either later this year or next year when the team is in better shape.

Ginn Jr. is a playmaker and will contribute more this season than Quinn would have. When you factor all of the weapons already present (Chambers, Booker and Brown), Ginn Jr. figures to be more of a threat from the slot or the outside with other teams forced to focus attention everywhere else.

Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line: Believe it or not, if they sort this out (and Hudson Houck is more than capable of doing so) the Dolphins can be a nine-win team.

Offensive X-Factor: Trent Green: There is plenty for him to work with, he just actually has to perform like a capable quarterback - something the Dolphins haven't had in a while.

Defensive X-Factor: Defensive Line - This unit was very dominant last year but now is short on depth. If they stay healthy, the Dolphins front seven will be even better than last year.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

While his yardage totals have been low, Chris Chambers has 33 touchdowns grabs in the last four seasons. He has been playing with average quarterbacks and even though Trent Green is nothing special, he's much better than Chambers has seen in a while. Expecting 10 touchdowns and 1000 yards receiving isn't outrageous for Chambers.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

It's difficult to gage how the 2006 season went for the Kansas City Chiefs.

Herman Edwards arrived and produced a short term gain but the Chiefs but the Chiefs simply look like they are headed for smaller and worse things going forward.

In a span of two years, the Chiefs have gone from offensive juggernaut to a one-dimensional outfit.

The Chiefs passing game, particularly after quarterback Trent Green got hurt, became fairly conservative.

Once again - for about the fifth year in a row - the Chiefs had no real receiving weapons outside of Tony Gonzalez, and for a second year in a row, he was forced into blocking to help out the offensive line. Eddie Kennison, once again provided his spotty production, but I'll give him credit. At least he is consistent for around 1000 yards and a steady option each week, which is more than people want to give him credit for.

Unfortunately, with Gonzalez blocking and Kennson, a No. 2 wideout stuck in the top role, the Chiefs passing game was very limited with what it could do.

The offensive line was in shambles, partly because of the impromptu retirement of left tackle Willie Roaf. He told the team when the NFL calendar changed but management probably thought he was bluffing and ignored the position in the draft and free agency.

Even so, Larry Johnson plugged away and picked up a lot of yardage on the ground. He basically was the Chiefs offense and took a big punishment for doing so.

The good news was that Edwards improved the defensive performance of a team that was previously horrific at tackling, defending, tackling and tackling.

The Chiefs found a pairing for defensive end Jared Allen as first-round pick, Tamba Hali, was on the grind from day one. The tandem combined for 15.5 sacks.

In the middle of the line, where the Chiefs used to enlist the worst talents of the NFL, Edwards found serviceable bodies in Ron Edwards and James Reed. That helped shore up the Chiefs run defense.

The linebacking corps was a bit better with Derrick Johnson's growth but they still struggled in pass defense. Kendrell Bell still didn't find his way into the regular rotation.

The secondary was somewhat of a strength as Ty Law and Patrick Surtain were a strong duo, especially considering the lack of help they had from the pass rush.

When you look at the defensive statistics, you figure that the defense wouldn't be this good. But Edwards preached basics with his football team: run the ball, stop the run, don't beat yourself and execute. A perfect example: the Chiefs defense ranked 16th overall but 12th in scoring.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Larry Johnson

Alright, so everyone wants to praise Larry Johnson for having a great season. He set an NFL record for carries in the season and, quite literally, carried the Chiefs offense.

But many people make the point that he still thrived even though the Chiefs offensive wasn't so good last year. That's not exactly true.

In 2005, when Johnson took over as a starter, he averaged 5.2 yards per carry with 15 rushes of 20 yards or longer in only nine starts.

In 2006, Johnson averaged only 4.3 yards per carry with only 10 rushes of more than 20 yards.

5.2 yards per carry is great; 4.3 yards per carry is borderline good.

The yards per carry drop was not his fault, but it is an ominous sign, since the offensive line is expected to be even worse this year.

In 2005, Johnson ran for 1750 yards on 339 carries. In 2006, he had 80 more carries but only 49 more yards.

That shows that the Chiefs running game isn't necessarily effective. What it shows it that they force-fed Johnson in a bulk manner and ended up with a high total as a result.

I Saw The Ominous Signs, And It Opened Up My Eyes, I Saw The Ominous Signs:

Regardless of Larry Johnson's prospective holdout, there are plenty of concerns that point to Chiefs drafting in the top 10 next year.

Their choices at quarterback: a second-year, untested Brodie Croyle or journeyman Damon Huard, who is making more money than LJ.

Huard will be a flop if he gets the job. Last year, there was no pressure on him and we often see a quarterback come into a can't lose situation and win, and then flop when there are expectations the following season.

But Huard won't start unless Croyle really messes up in training camp.

Croyle is the better long term decision but there will be many growing pains in the short term.

The worst part of it is that the offensive line in front of him will be among the worst in the league.

The Chiefs allowed 41 sacks in 2006 after allowing 32 in each of the previous two years.

Last year, Willie Roaf retired. This year, Will Shields retired. Free agent pickup, Damion McIntosh, was supposed to secure the left side but sprained his knee and may not be ready for opening week. Brian Waters is still a stud - the last one left - as Casey Wiegmann is nearing the end of his career.

As mentioned above, the Chiefs running game looked better than it actually was simply because they gave so many carries to Johnson. This year they'll have Priest Holmes back and plan to use Michael Bennett more, but neither of those guys can take the pounding that LJ can.

The other two backs will look horrific running behind this line while LJ will still average about four yards-per-carry.

The passing game doesn't figure to be significantly better, either. Finally, the Chiefs addressed their receiving corps by drafting Dwayne Bowe in the first round. But in a run oriented offense with a raw quarterback and a shaky offensive line, don't expect him to have a big impact.

Kennison is now 34 and definitely in the twilight of his career. Tony Gonzalez, who is still a Pro Bowler, will once again have to block more than he should, especially with a young quarterback taking the reigns.

The strength of this team now lies on defense, which is a scary proposition.

The defensive line should be a respectable unit once Jared Allen returns from a two-game suspension, although he is disgruntled about his contract.

The linebacking corps should also be stronger than it has been in recent years. The Chiefs signed Donnie Edwards and Napoleon Harris to round out the three spots with Derrick Johnson. There is definitely more talent now - and more ability to cover the pass.

In the secondary, 33-year-old Ty Law is not what he used to be. Neither is 31-year-old Patrick Surtain. Unfortunately, the Chiefs are not grooming any replacements. Depth is also a concern.

At the back end, there are two good projects in Jarrad Page and Bernard Pollard. Both had quality rookie seasons and need to take control of the starting spots this year.

There are a lot of old, decrepit parts on this team mixed with a lot of youth and inexperience. There are certain pockets of prospects for the future, but not enough to say that this team will rebound in 2008.

With a couple of key injuries, this team could easily be competing with the Oakland Raiders for fourth in the AFC West.

Attending To The Defensive Tackles, After Avoiding The Position For Years:

After years of simply ignoring the defensive tackle position and inserting random garbage that other teams had discarded, the Chiefs took the complete opposite approach this offseason: they went completely overboard.

First they signed their own veterans James Reed and Ron Edwards to three and four years contracts, then gave starter's money to Alfonso Boone, a career backup in Chicago. Then they signed Jimmy Wilkerson to a one-year flier.

All of this was done in accordance with their draft, where they spent their second and third round picks on defensive tackles.

This team needs help at too many positions to focus so much attention at defensive tackle. How about adding another young cornerback or wide receiver?

Biggest Weakness: Offensive Line/Wide Receiver: One of the best lines in the league two seasons ago is now a shadow of itself. The wide receiver has been a consistent weakness.

Offensive X-Factor: Larry Johnson: He might hold out into the season because he knows that this is a two-win team without him.

Defensive X-Factor: Safeties: The Chiefs have two young, good ones in Page and Pollard but need them to make jarring hits and game-altering plays. They haven't had that from their safeties in a while.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Larry Johnson: Johnson has nowhere to go, and probably won't hold out, but he has more leverage than any other holdout in recent memory. He knows that they plan to start a young, untested quarterback. Even with Johnson, the Chiefs are not a winning team and without him, they will have the first pick in the 2008 Draft.

Even if he comes back, he's running behind a terrible offensive line without a threat at quarterback (yet), which means he'll have to face even more attention in the box this year.

Steven Jackson, Shaun Alexander, Frank Gore and even Peyton Manning are better options.

Tony Gonzalez: Contrary to public opinion, his skills haven't really deteriorated. His decline in stats is mostly due to the fact that he has to help out the offensive line and spend more time blocking instead of releasing on his routes. That won't change this year, which means that he isn't worth being the second tight end drafted.

Eddie Kennison: Never a great fantasy option to begin with, Kennison might even drop from consideration as a No. 2 option. He's 34-years-old and is playing with an inexperienced quarterback.

Dwane Bowe: Rookie wide receiver in a run-first offense. Good luck with that.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

12 wins and a playoff berth in 2005 were supposed to pave the way for a deeper playoff run in 2006 for Jacksonville.

Then again, Jim Carrey was supposed to grow up after Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind but never did.

Part of the Jaguars return to Earth was the fact their schedule toughened up. In 2005, they had a number of soft spots that they took advantage of.

Jacksonville looked very strong from the get-go, upending Dallas and Pittsburgh at home but then came up just short in Indianapolis and an overtime loss in Washington.

Supposed franchise quarterback, Byron Leftwich, suffered an ankle injury but didn't properly report it to the training staff. He proceeded to play through it for a game, until head coach Jack Del Rio shut him down.

Without Leftwich, the Jags tried to get by with David Garrard once again but against stiffer opponents, Garrard was exposed as a fraud.

It didn't help that Garrard, like Leftwich, received no help from any of his passing targets.

Under Leftwich, Reggie Williams looked like he was finally going to shed the 'bust' label. In the first five weeks, he 297 receiving yards and four touchdowns. But he only had 319 receiving yards and no touchdowns after Garrard took over.

Jones, the bigger bust of the two, has struggled to make the transition from quarterback to wide receiver. He did show a pulse near the end of the season, finishing December with 19 receptions, 320 yards and three touchdowns.

Furthermore, first-round pick, tight end Marcedes Lewis, had a very minor impact in his rookie season (126 yards, one TD).

For all the failures of the passing game, the running game picked up the slack.

Rookie Maurice Jones-Drew was the spark plug and shared the load with Fred Taylor. Taylor, who is often ripped an injury risk, he's only missed eight games over the last five years.

While the Jags offense has been inconsistent throughout Del Rio's tenure, one part of the team that has rarely failed has been the defense.

They draft, develop and execute as good as any defense.

Last season, the Jags lost a number of star contributors to prolonged injury, including Mike Peterson, Marcus Stroud, Reggie Hayward and Donovin Darius.

But guys like Daryl Smith, Clint Ingram and Gerald Sensabaugh stepped in seamlessly.

The Jags finished with the second-best defense (statistically) and figure to only get better this time around.

Give some credit to coordinator, Mike Smith, who is probably in line for a head coaching gig soon - or at least a raise.

How To Break The Pattern Of Inconsistency?:

Like with most teams, when they are enduring inconsistent spells, the trail usually leads back to shaky quarterback play.

The defense is solid all the way around, the running game is a rock, which points the finger in only one direction.

In the past three seasons, the Jags' passing game hasn't ranked better than 19th in the NFL. Without Leftwich performing up to expectations, or avoiding injury, the Jags don't know what they are going to get week in, week out with David Garrard.

But there are three reasons to believe that the pattern will change: it's a contract year for Leftwich (and we all know how athletes not named Andruw Jones step up in those situations), Leftwich is finally comfortable in an offense and he should have more weapons to work with than ever before.

Leftwich is on the hot seat but his performance is the only thing that can make this team better than a first-round playoff loser.

New Offensive Coaches:

The front office and coaching staff in Jacksonville are sharp and realized this offseason that the missing link in the chain is the passing offense. It has been their main focus since the turn of the new NFL year.

Hence the hiring of Dirk Koetter, Mike Shula and Todd Monken.

Leftwich has gone through Carl Smith and Brent Musgrave as his offensive coordinator in Jacksonville, but has never felt as comfortable in an offense as he has under Koetter.

Koetter's plan is to implement more downfield passes. The Jags, after all, have a running game that will tempt opposing defenders to creep closer to the line of scrimmage.

Leftwich has openly praised Koetter and quarterbacks coach Mike Shula, who was hired to extract his franchise quarterback potential. That's a change in itself.

Leftwich has responded well and is primed for a career year. But in the passing game, it takes two to connect.

All eyes have been on the competition at wide receiver in training camp.

Former Louisiana State wide receivers coach, Monken, is now overlooking this area for the Jaguars.

The hope was that he would be able to find that "on" switch with busts Jones and Williams, but neither has stood out in training camp.

The competition has helped the others, though, as sophomore Charles Sharon and rookie Mike Walker have looked strong. The latter figures to be among the top three on the depth chart with veterans Dennis Northcutt and Ernest Wilford.

The Jags don't need to emulate the Indianapolis Colts passing game; they need to be consistent, move the chains and keep opponents honest.

With Jermaine Wiggins, along with last year's first-round pick, Marcedes Lewis, Leftwich should have two reliable check down options.

Leftwich leads the way and considering the way he has looked in scrimmages, the passing game should be as strong as it has been to date.

Super Bowl Defense:

The Jags defense has always been good but on occasion, stooped down to its competition.

But this year it looks downright scary good.

Consider the fact that it ranked only second to Baltimore in yards allowed, and that was without Stroud, Peterson and Hayward.

The Jags lost only one key member in the offseason, free safety Deon Grant, who they felt would be adequately replaced by first-round pick, Reggie Nelson.

Losing Darius will subtract some leadership but Sensabaugh has stepped in for him twice in the past to close out seasons.

The safeties are green but with Pro Bowl corner, Rashean Mathis, and Brian Williams opposite him, the safeties will have some time to find their feet.

At linebacker, the Jags rarely get recognition as being among the top units, but they should be even stronger this year.

Peterson returns from a pectoral injury, which will push Smith back to the outside spot where he is better suited.

Last year, when Peterson went down, it opened up a spot for rookie Clint Ingram, who finished second on the team with tackles. He has a ton of upside and might push incumbent Nick Greisen, who is a solid player, out of a roster spot completely. Rookie Justin Durant, also looks like he has the talent to start from the jump.

On the defensive line, Stroud and John Henderson are the pillars. Nobody is going to run on Jacksonville this year, you write that down in permanent marker. There isn't a ton of depth behind them, but those two are usually healthy.

On the ends is where the Jags could use some more production. But with the return of Hayward, and assuming that Bobby McCray builds on his breakout season, the Jags could be fine. Paul Spicer is decent and Marcellus Wiley is also a contributor. The Jags need to get more than 35 sacks if they are to become Super Bowl caliber.

This defense looks as strong as it has ever been under Del Rio. Combined with the prospects on offense, the Jags might be surprising a few pundits this season.

Experienced Coaching Staff:

There's former NFL Head Coaches, such as Mike Tice and Dave Campo, there's former college head coaches, such as Mike Shula and Dirk Koetter, and there's coaches who are on the upswing, such as Mike Smith.

As if that wasn't enough, the Jags have brought in Kevin Greene, the NFL's third all-time leader sacker, to observe practice and provide some feedback.

The Jags have made a concentrated effort to fill the sidelines with experienced, savvy coaches that will make sure this team becomes more consistent.

This is one of the best groups in the AFC, which should translate into the Jaguars becoming one of the better teams in the AFC.

Biggest Weakness: Wide Receiver - It still looks like this team misses Jimmy Smith; that might change this year.

Offensive X-Factor: Byron Leftwich - Poised for a breakout campaign - myself and many other pundits have said the same thing about him for a while now. It's time for him to actually break out.

Defensive X-Factor: Reggie Nelson - Given all the proven components everywhere else, Nelso has the luxury of being the x-factor. If he plays well, this ferocious defense will be the best in the business.

Fantasy Market: Sell High

Maurice Jones-Drew, a running back who shares carries with another stud, Fred Taylor, in one of the deepest backfields in the NFL, is going late in the first round of many drafts.

Sharing carries with Taylor should at least drop him to round two or three, and the fact that bruiser Greg Jones is back and healthy and LaBrandon Toefield is having a great offseason should also wave a red flag.

Jones, a bulldozer, will likely take goal line carries away from Jones-Drew. And if the Jags figure out how to better use their receivers, that will also cut into Jones-Drew's touchdown total.

Lastly, the Jags have Jermaine Wiggins and Marcedes Lewis at tight end, which will improve their red zone production and take away from Jones-Drew once again. There are better options in round one or two.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

After a heart-breaking playoff performance in the 2005 AFC Championship game, it looked like the Indianapolis Colts wave had hit its high point and started to roll back.

Following their even-keeled head coach, Tony Dungy, the Colts simply continued to persevere and finished as Super Bowl Champions.

There have rarely been any concerns in regards to the Colts offense but there was a minor issue at the beginning of last year. Stalwart runner, Edgerrin James, had departed to Arizona via free, leaving first-round pick Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes to fill his shoes.

The tandem passed every test with flying colors and were fresh throughout the whole season. Neither carried close to the 312 carries, which is what James averaged in his seven seasons in Indy.

After Peyton Manning ripped his offensive line after the playoff loss in 2005, the front five kept Manning's jersey clean in 2006. They allowed the fewest sacks in the NFL (15).

The main issues were on the other side of the ball, where the Colts couldn't seem to stop any of their opponents. In fairness, the Colts only lost four games but the way their run defense finished up the season, there were questions as to how they would succeed in the playoffs.

The Colts signed former Pro Bowl defensive Corey Simon in the offseason, who was supposed to clog up the middle and prevent easy rushing gains. But Simon missed the entire season with an undisclosed injury, leaving a huge vacancy. Compounding the problem was a car accident that involved the Colts' other starting defensive tackle, Montae Reagor, who would also only make five games.

Much of the success in Dungy's defensive scheme depends on the front lines and without their best personnel, the levies broke in Indianapolis. The Colts acquired disgruntled tackle Anthony McFarland from Tampa Bay, who thrived under Dungy previously. It took him some time to grow acclimated to the defense and his new surroundings, but he paid dividends in the playoffs.

Another problem for the Colts was that their top safety, Bob Sanders, was dealing with a lingering knee injury that kept him on a week-to-week basis.

Combined all of the above issues with the loss of Mike Doss for the season, and it is evident why the Colts run defense was shredded in the regular season.

But once the playoffs hit, Sanders was a go each week and McFarland had found his comfort zone.

The biggest achievement for the Colts in 2006 was the fact that they exorcized their ghosts and finally defeated Tom Brady's Patriots in the playoffs. It seemed like the problem was mental - and it probably was - but the Colts battled back from a 21-3 deficit against a team that simply had their number. That put their growth on display, even though most pundits believed they had regressed from the previous season.

The Colts Championship season followed a different pattern than in recent seasons. They had to overcome serious injuries, they didn't finished the regular season on a hot streak and they didn't win it with defense. Props to them for an improbable and impressive Super Bowl season.

Using Letters To Breakdown Numbers: Colts Linebackers

The Colts' defense has been a linebacker factory since Tony Dungy took over and given their track record, they have always opted to let their burgeoning stars walk and replenish the depth through the draft.

From Mike Peterson, to Marcus Washington, to the latest defector, Cato June, the Colts have always had an in-house solution.

But the Colts may miss June more than they missed the others. Not only did June lead the team in tackles in 2006, he is also one of the defense's playmakers.

The two remaining veterans slated to start, Gary Brackett and Rob Morris, are solid with tackles, but don't produce many game-changing plays.

Last season, in addition to June's 142 tackles, he added three interceptions, two forced fumbles (one recovered) and a sack.

In the last three seasons, June has 10 interceptions, two touchdowns and eight passes defensed. In that span, Morris and Brackett have combined for six interceptions, nine passes defensed and no touchdowns.

Brackett only has two forced fumbles for his career and although he is approaching what should be his best season, the fact that he hasn't created more game-altering plays to this point might show that he is just a good starter - not the Pro Bowl caliber of Peterson, Washington or June.

The Colts should miss June more than they missed the others but don't fret for too long, they will have a new body in there making plays - possibly Freddie Keiaho - shortly.

Is Repeating The Hardest Thing?:

It's early August and NFL predictions are as common as DUI arrests so here's another one: the Colts will not repeat as Super Bowl champs.

The Colts did overcome quite a bit of adversity last year to make it a Championship season but there are too many factors weighing them down already for 2007.

For starters, they have once again endured a severe blow at defensive tackle, losing a starter for the entire season. Last year, they lost Corey Simon. This year, they will be without his replacement, Anthony McFarland.

Making matters worse is the release of Simon and the departure of Montae Reagor. The Colts are now extremely thin at a position that is crucial to stopping the run.

The linebacking corps also is at a shortage as stud Cato June defected to Tampa Bay.

Brackett is great for tackles, and Morris doesn't let many slip his grip, but neither bring the many turnovers or sacks to the table. Also, Morris has been used as a depth option in the past and with him among the starting three, the depth is shortened.

The secondary did some growing the in the postseason but outside of Bob Sanders, they are nothing special.

The Colts lost starting corners Jason David and Nick Harper to free agency, which means youngsters Marlin Jackson and Kelvin Hayden have to step it up. Sanders is the veteran of this group and although he is one of the better safeties in the league when he's on the field, he is not on it consistently.

This secondary's statistics will once again look horrible, mostly because of the offense. Teams need to score points against the Colts to keep up, which will force this young group into action more than they would like.

The Colts offense returns mostly intact minus runner Dominic Rhodes and left tackle, Tarik Glenn.

The latter will be the biggest subtraction on the team since quality left tackle replacements simply aren't readily available on the waiver-wire.

The front office was mocked when they selected tackle Tony Ugoh in the second round, which may have been high for the Arkansas tackle, but at least they have a potential in-house solution for Glenn's untimely retirement.

I wouldn't worry about this offense too much; the same constituents are still present with even more weaponry.

With Ben Utecht, Dallas Clark and Bryon Fletcher, the Colts have ample tight ends to set up in two-tight end formations. Clark can also split out, if need be. We know about the wideouts the Colts boast and they added a slot weapon with first-round pick Anthony Gonzalez, who will probably take a while to figure out how this offense really works.

One concern might be the lack of a secondary running back outside of Joseph Addai. He will get a lot of touches this year, especially since they plan to use him more as a receiver as well. He had the luxury of Rhodes last year, which helped keep him fresh and spelled him when he struggled.

There is no question that the roster has weakened over the offseason but the Colts are not facing personnel holes that they haven't plugged in the past. They have overcome losses at DT, LB and RB under Dungy. They have endured the rigors of using a very young, inexperienced secondary. The only difference will be playing without left tackle, Tarik Glenn. Expect teams to really gun for them - even more so than in the past - since they are now officially the top dog but the Colts will definitely be back barking in the playoffs.

Biggest Weakness: Depth - The Colts are thin everywhere with DT, OLB, CB, FS standing out. The offense is fine, for the most part.

Offensive X-Factor: Tony Ugoh - I could give you the generic answer, but Ugoh's role - replacing Glenn - is very important. Manning hasn't had to worry about his blindside yet and doesn't want to start now.

Defensive X-Factor: Gary Brackett - He's been a tackling machine but with June gone, needs to make more plays (turnovers and sacks).

Fantasy Market: Sell High

There are a number of fantasy owners that are taking a shot with Anthony Gonzalez late in their drafts but keep your expectations tempered for the first-round pick.

When people think of Gonzalez, they think of Brandon Stokley from two seasons ago, but keep in mind that there are a lot of other weapons on this offense. Aside from Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne, the Colts have three quality tight ends and a running back they plan to use more in the passing game.

More than all of those reasons, though, the Colts passing offense - and all of Manning's checkdowns - are a tough learn. Wayne took a couple of years to get accustomed to this offense and Gonzalez will do the same. His production will be spotty in year one.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio. Catch the HSR live fantasy football draft on August 25th starting 12:00 PM ET. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.

Looking At 2006 In The Rear View Mirror:

So you were among the guys that thought Brett Favre should retire.

Well Barry Bonds he is not, as Favre was a legitimate contributor to the Packers and helped them through what was essentially a rebuilding year.

As a matter of fact, he is the opposite of Bonds. Favre, even though he was approaching many passing records, still cared more about the team than personal accomplishments.

After a 29-interception effort in 2005, Favre bounced-back somewhat and had a one-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio.

But the problem last season, more than in 2005, was the lack of support he had from wide receivers, tight ends and the offensive line.

Starting upfront, with two rookies at the guard spots, Jason Spitz and Darren Colledge, the Packers were fairly green at first. But as the line jelled down the homestretch, Favre enjoyed better protection.

Outside of Donald Driver, Favre had a severe shortage of reliable weapons to throw to.

Greg Jennings looked like a stud early on before injuries forced him to fade off in the second half. Without him, Favre grew frustrated with miscommunications and dropped passes from young wideouts.

Even the tight end position, manned by three-time Pro Bowler Bubba Franks and other capable receivers, never provided a safety valve.

The Packers particularly struggled in the red zone where their efficiency ranked dead last in the NFC.

On defense, the Packers were better than most people might think. They ranked 12th overall and allowed opponents to convert 32.8% 3rd downs (4th-best).

The Packers spent the previous offseason adding some pieces to the defense and it worked.

They were mocked for signing cornerback Charles Woodson, who hadn't posted a good season in over two years, but he repaid them with a career-best eight interceptions. The other free agent splash, tackle Ryan Pickett, proved to be a valuable run-stuffer.

First-round pick, linebacker A.J. Hawk, took a burden off of the shoulder of incumbent Nick Barnett, and led the team in tackles.

The biggest growth on defense was the line, which was really clicking as the season finished.

End Aaron Kampman produced his first Pro Bowl season, and his opposite, Cullen Jenkins, proved to be an effective started as well. That pushed pass rushing specialist, Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila, to the bench, which kept him fresh for those situations.

The Packers generated 46 sacks (4th-best in the NFL) and 28 of them came from the ends.

Aside from a gaping hole at free safety, where the Packers made their one mistake in free agency by signing Marquand Manuel, the defense was very strong last season and is definitely looking up.

While everyone wants to tab the Detroit Lions or the San Francisco 49ers as the next sleeper out of the NFC, the Packers are the best candidate. The Packers won their final four games and boast a burgeoning defense and an offense that can go up from last year.

Using Letters To Break Down Numbers: Packers Tight Ends

While the new wave of tight ends are meant catch 40-yard bombs in between two deep safeties, or take 12-yard receptions and outrun cornerbacks to the end zone, the Packers still rely on old fashioned safety-valve tight ends.

That was until last year, when those valves broke.

Bubba Franks, a former first-round pick, was extremely unreliable last year, which directly impacted Favre, who has always had a solid connection with his tight ends.

Franks has caught only 25 passes per year in the last two years (was injured in 2005) after averaging nearly 38 receptions per season in his first five campaigns. Furthermore, Franks, who has 29 career touchdown catches, for the first time in his career did not catch a single touchdown pass.

If you are wondering why the Packers red zone efficiency was worst in the NFL, this is one of the major reasons.

In 2005, the Packers trio of tight ends, Franks, David Martin and Donald Lee, combined for 85 receptions, 725 yards and six touchdowns.

Those numbers dipped to 56, 580 and two in 2006.

It hurt even more last year as Favre dealt with a lack of support from young wide receivers and then had his pillars of consistency at tight end crumble in front of him.

There is no disputing that Favre's best years are behind him but he is still effective as a starter. What he can't do any longer is take average parts and carry them into the playoffs. He needs help from his receivers, which starts with the production at tight end.

Why The Packers Are A Better Sleeper Than The Detroit Lions:

By default, anyone is a better sleeper choice than Detroit.

Alright, pot-shots aside, the Packers are a better sleeper choice than Detroit because of a few reasons.

For starters, they have players on their rosters with a history of winning. They don't have to learn, figure out or understand how to put their best foot forward in key situations; they have done that before.

Secondly, their model of success is based on a strong defense that is going to get better.

The Packers have one of the best rotations at defensive end and have a solid interior that will add first-round pick, Justin Harrell, to the equation. At the second level, Hawk and Barnett are already a solid tandem, but both are young and should continue to get even better.

The starting cornerbacks are a veteran group, who compare with the best tandems in the NFL, and now there is a fiery competition at the free safety spot and nickel back spot, two openings from a season a go.

The Packers already have a good defense that will crack the Top-10 this year, but by no means are they an unbalanced team.

The offensive performance last year was more of a detour from the norm than it was a trend.

With a strong offensive line once again, Favre and Donald Driver, the Packers won't be horrible.

They need bounce-back seasons from Franks and Lee at tight end, and they need Jennings to stay healthy. Last year, depth behind Driver and Jennings left the Packers exposed but all of those prospects are a year older, and third-round pick, James Jones, looks like he can nail down the third receiving role regardless of what anyone else does.

It's true: Favre wanted Randy Moss and the Packers failed to get him. But Jennings in his second year should be better than he played in the first half of '06, and if Jones continues to impress like he has during the offseason, the Packers will have a strong trio.

That leaves a vacancy at running back, which is perennially the easiest position to fill. Runners are the cheapest commodity in the NFL and the Packers have second-round pick, Brandon Jackson, and incumbent, Vernand Morency to replace Green's production.

Green has rushed for 1314 yards and five touchdowns over the last two seasons; it's not as if the Packers have to replace LaDainian Tomlinson.

The Packers already have a good defense and have a few "what ifs" on the offense that they are banking on to help make them a playoff team.

The Lions, on the other hand, are a team filled with "what ifs" - albeit with more potential. They are working with less concrete facts, which is why the Packers are a better sleeper choice.

Why The Packers Are A Better Sleeper Than The San Francisco 49ers:

The 49ers are everyone's sleeper darling, but one reason the Packers may be the better choice is continuity.

The Packers return virtually all of their starters intact and the same coaching staff.

San Francisco has added a number of big pieces through free agency, which will at the very least take some time to assimilate them into the swing of things.

The 49ers lost offensive coordinator, Norv Turner, who was instrumental in the development of quarterback Alex Smith and have reconstructed their receiving corps.

The Packers have the pieces intact already - they just need them to stay health and to perform to their capability.

Lambeau Luster Is Back, Baby:

The Packers will be back in the playoffs in 2007, which will likely be Favre's swan song.

There is a lot to like about this team (as mentioned previously) and as long as they can replace Green (and running back is one of the easiest positions to replace) then the Packers will turn some heads.

They finished 8-8 and barely fell short of a postseason berth, but have a burgeoning roster that will be more supportive of Favre this year.

More importantly, the Packers will finally take back their home field advantage. The Lambeau luster has worn off in the previous three years: they are 10-14 in their last 24 home games.

If they post a winning record at home, they can close out Favre's career on a winning note.

Biggest Weakness: Lack Of Superstars - The Packers are really good virtually everywhere on their roster, but they are not great in any one area.

Offensive X-Factor: Tight Ends - Running back position is easy to replace (see: Samkon Gado). Favre needs help in the red zone and he needs a set of reliable hands outside of Donald Driver. The tight ends must provide that.

Defensive X-Factor: Strong Safety - The Packers don't have any real leaks on defense outside of this one.

Fantasy Market: Buy Low

Rookie running back Brandon Jackson is the easy pick here. The Packers have picked guys off the scrap heap to come in and run for them and all of them have been successful. Guys like Noah Herron, Najeh Davenport, Samkon Gado and Vernand Morency have thrived as runners in this offense and Jackson has more talent than all of those guys.

Morency is a nice change-of-pace runner but doesn't have the bulk to be the main carrier on season long. He's also battling a knee injury already, which should open the door for Jackson to take the reigns.

"Vegas" Dave Golokhov hosts "THE Fantasy Show" on Hardcore Sports Radio, channel 186 on Sirius Satellite Radio, beginning September. Send media requests, thoughts, love letters, or hate mail to vegasdavevd@gmail.com.