Five Observations

1. On paper, the whole idea of strength of schedule (giving teams who finish with better records tougher schedules) sounds sensible, but it hasn't really panned out that way this season. The 2-10 San Francisco 49ers have had the second-toughest home schedule as their home opponents have had a 0.642 winning percentage while the only team to have a more difficult schedule at home is the Miami Dolphins, whose home opponents have a combined record of 40-20. On the road, no team has had it harder than the Houston Texans, whose opponents have a combined 0.613 winning percentage. So how do the league-leading Indianapolis Colts compare? They have had a fairly light schedule this season, possibly the easiest in the NFL, as their road opponents have a feeble record of 24-46 (second-easiest in NFL) while their home opponents have not been much stronger with a combined record of 29-43 (third-easiest in the NFL).

2. Contract years are the time when an athlete will exert himself to the fullest and usually overachieve in order to collect a big pay check on the free agent market but that is not always the case. For some players, if the situation has gone sour in their current environment, they will head in the other direction and underachieve purposely, in order to avoid any serious injuries. Case and point: Baltimore Ravens' running back Jamal Lewis and Jets' defensive end John Abraham. While the blame is not squarely on the shoulders of Lewis, when you consider that Chester Taylor has been more effective at times, you know that Lewis is not giving his all. As for Abraham, who started the season with 13 tackles, three sacks and a pass defensed in the first three weeks of the season, has only had two sacks, nine tackles and zero passes defensed in the last five weeks. Nonetheless, if these players are to become free agents, suitors will not view them with any trepidation as everyone is aware what these guys are capable of.

3. At this point last year, the San Diego Chargers were 9-3 and in the midst of an eight-game winning streak until the Indianapolis Colts quenched that fire. Well, even though the Colts might have the opportunity to put an end to another Chargers win streak when the two teams meet in Indianapolis next week, the Chargers appear to be the Colts main competition in the AFC. Indy has had no problems with the Denver Broncos in the past and will dismantle them again this year if the Broncos have to travel to the RCA Dome but San Diego might cause a few difficulties. For starters, the Chargers do employ a 3-4 defense which has given Peyton Manning more trouble than 4-3 defenses have in the past. The Chargers would probably study the defenses of the Patriots and do a lot of pre-snap shifting and fake blitzes. The Chargers front seven is also second in the AFC in sack total with 38, which is a sharp improvement over last year's team which only account for 29 in 16 games, and entails the NFL's top rushing defense.

4. Just when you thought it was safe to get on the "Michael Vick can pass" bandwagon, you're a little red-faced for doing that, aren't you? There was a brief flash of light during a three week span where Vick compiled 743 yards passing with five touchdowns and no interceptions while completing nearly 64% of his passes. Well after the last two weeks he has come back down to earth going 29-57 with two touchdowns and three interceptions. Here's the main problem: Vick still does not have a go-to receiver. Brian Finneran is tops among the Falcons wide receivers with 451 passing yards but 108 of them came in a game that Matt Schaub started. It's hard to tell if Vick is where McNabb was pre-Owens or whether Vick will always be this type of an inefficient passer but until he gets a reliable wideout we'll assume the best. Here's still an MVP-type player, just for different reasons.

5. Clinton Portis does not exactly fit what Washington Redskins head coach Joe Gibbs is looking for. Gibbs has tried to mold a finesse back into a power back but the result has put Portis in a no-mans land. Portis is not a bruiser and he's not being used as an open-field homerun threat which begs the question: is Washington better off trading him? Portis is the best player on the offense but he is being asked to play a role which does not suit him. We're talking about a player who was among the ranks of Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson a couple of years ago with a monstrous 5.5 yards-per-carry average. In the first two seasons of his career, he compiled 24 rushes of 20 yards or longer. During his two years in Washington, he only has nine. His star has definitely faded in Washington but it is not because he has diminished as a player but because he is being misused.

Four Picks

New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

JP Losman is 1-6 as the Bills starter and although he started hot last week in Miami, he still only finished completing 50% of his passes. The Bills may be in some trouble this week as WR Eric Moulds is suspended which leaves them without a good possession wideout. The Patriots will likely stack the box and force the Bills into longer third-down situations where they will feel the loss of Moulds. The Patriots are getting healthier on defense and should be able to contain the Bills.

Patriots -3.5

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers

The Dolphins are in tough this week as they will be facing the number one rushing defense in the NFL. If Miami's running game is cut-off, they generally need a miracle to win and after last week's miracle, expect the Chargers to watch the tapes and prevent the Dolphins from catching lightning in a bottle twice. Meanwhile, the Chargers are on fire of late and unless the Dolphins figure out a way to pressure the quarterback, Drew Brees and co. shouldn't have many problems scoring. Even if RB LaDainian Tomlinson can not go, Michael Turner and even Darren Sproles can step in and provide decent production.

Chargers -13.5

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles just don't have much left in the tank. Defensively, they are still more or less intact but with a bare-naked offense, their defense will spend too much time on the field. With tight-end Jeremy Shockey and WR Plaxico Burress and RB Tiki Barber, the Giants will create enough mismatches to dominate the time of possession. The Eagles have lost WR Terrell Owens, QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and most of their offensive line for the year. Although the Giants defense is not one of the better units, it should not have too much trouble against the Eagles second team.

Giants -9

St. Louis Rams @ Minnesota Vikings

This is a tail of two teams headed in opposite directions. The Vikings are smoking hot right now, are running the ball effectively and are not making many mistakes. The Rams have chemistry issues in the locker room and are not doing anything right as a team. Rookie QB Ryan Fitzpatrick looked good for about one half of a game and now the Rams look completely lost and unmotivated.

Vikings -6.5

Injury Impact
-Bills rushing offense without guards Chris Villarrial (questionable) and Mike Williams (questionable) vs Patriots rushing defense
-Ravens rushing offense without tackle Orlando Brown (doubtful, not expected to play), G Keydrick Vincent (out) and guard Edwin Mulitalo (questionable, game-time decision) vs Broncos rushing defense
-Browns offense without WR Bralyon Edwards (out), Reuben Droughns (questionable, expected to play), G Cosey Coleman (questionable, expected to play) and G Joe Andruzzi (questionable) vs Bengals defense
-Raiders rushing defense without DT Ted Washington (questionable) and DT Ed Jasper (questionable, expected to play) vs Jets rushing offense.
-Steelers offense line without T Marvel Smith (out) and T Max Starks (questionable, expected to play) vs Bears defensive line
-Panthers defensive line without DE Julius Peppers (questionable) and DE Mike Rucker (questionable) vs Buccaneers offensive line

Golokhov Power Rating
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league's performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.

Five Observations

1. Although the Carolina Panthers are presumed to be one of the frontrunners for the NFC, they are a very unbalanced team offensively. Their rushing offense is ranked 26th and their passing offense is ranked 15th. Of the 2327 passing yards that the Panthers have accumulated, WR Steve Smith has accounted for 1161 (50%). Not only do they not have a proper run-pass balance offensively, they don't even have another receiving option outside of Smith. He has 75 receptions on the year and the next closest player has only 25 receptions. The problem with this is that the good teams (playoffs teams) will be able to use a linebacker/safety bracket or just straight up double-team Smith to box him out of the game. Right now, the Panthers do not have any other weapons that will deter teams from doing so. Last week against Buffalo, Smith had only one catch in the first half (for nine yards) and the Panthers only had three points at halftime.

2. Ok, so he's not Ben Roethlisberger but isn't it time to start giving Chicago Bears QB Kyle Orton some serious credit? He stepped on a team that wasn't even considered as a post-season competitor in the pre-season and has helped them to an 8-3 record. When Roethlisberger started quarterbacking a playoff team and ripped off seven straight wins as a rookie starter, pundits could not stop raving about the kid. Well Orton has done the same but unlike Roethlisberger, he wasn't drafted 11th overall. He was drafted 106th overall. He may never be as good as Roethlisberger and his statistics may never measure up, but for now, he does deserve some recognition.

3. St. Louis Rams Head Coach Joe Vitt used to be a better motivator as an assistant coach but his recent casual approach is clearly visible in his team's performance. With the Rams facing so much adversity (injuries, an uphill battle to the playoffs, in-house bouts) he has given his team the message that if certain players don't want to play, the next player in line will step into the lineup. This type of lackadaisical approach is not ideal as the head coach should demand the absolute most out of his players, not give them the option to try or not. This lack of enthusiasm was visible last week when the Rams found themselves down 24-3 at halftime and needed a rookie QB to create a spark. Each team's demeanor seeps down from the coach since he is the main leader and if he is not full of vigor, then his players won't be either.

4. One reason why the Colts are so high on the Golokhov Power Ranking is their points scored versus points allowed differential. They are scoring 30.1 PPG and allowing 14.5 PPG for a sparkling 15.6 differential. Consider that most good teams have a differential of about 5-10 points and that the San Diego Chargers, the next closest team, are 6.1 points behind at 9.5. The Colts may not have the best defense in the NFL but they are playing with a ton of confidence right now and with a potent offense to back them up, expect this ratio to stay in the double-digits.

5. Pop quiz: which defense leads the NFL in sacks? If you'd guessed the Chicago Bears, you would be wrong. It's the Seattle Seahawks. They have done it the same way as the Bears, though, with a stout front-four leading the way. The Seahawks defensive line has accounted for 24.5 of the team's 36 sacks. Getting to the quarterback has been critical for the Seahawks, who entered the season with seven new defensive starters. Without the need of supplemental blitzing, the Seahawks defense can safely drop seven players into coverage and really cloud the passing lanes when necessary. In the past couple of seasons, the strength of the Seahawks defensive line has been the edge rushers but now they have a very strong rotation at the tackle position as well. DT Rocky Bernard is getting most of the recognition since he has 8.5 sacks (which is excellent for a tackle), but second-year tackle Marcus Tubbs has developed in a premier run-stuffer and the undersized Chatric Darby has also been a handful for opposing offensive lines.

Four Picks

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions

The Lions have gone through some turmoil this past week but they have almost 10 days to prepare for the Vikings. The Lions struggle offensively when they can not get the ground game going but with QB Jeff Garcia at the helm, they should be able to get on track. With Joey Harrington at QB, opposing defenses do not respect the Lions ability to pass and therefore stack the box to limit RB Kevin Jones. With the Vikings best defensive linemen, Kevin Williams, out for the game, the Lions will be able to run the ball. On the flipside, look for the Lions to limit the Vikings rushing yards by using big packages and playing their defense up near the line of scrimmage. If the Vikings can not run, they can not score. The Lions will be ready this week after an embarrassing thanksgiving.

Lions +3

Washington Redskins @ St. Louis Rams

Rams will likely start QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as Jamie Martin continues to suffer from blurred vision. Against the Houston Texans porous defense, Fitzpatrick led an amazing comeback but against the Redskins stout unit, don't expect him to have as much success. The key here is that the Rams are beat up on their offensive line. If they can not protect a rookie quarterback, they will be in trouble. On the flipside, the Rams defense has been pantsed by virtually every opponent and expect their defensive line to get mauled this week by a big, physical Redskins line. Redskins RB Clinton Portis should have a solid game as the Rams are weak at the DT position and the Redskins blockers should be able to get to the second level quickly and clear up some space for him.

Redskins -2.5

Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Do not expect the Steelers to get embarrassed two games in a row. After laying down on it's back like a helpless Chihuahua on Monday Night, look for the Steelers to come out extremely physical against a soft team who can not stop the run. Last week the Bengals allowed a struggling Jamal Lewis to break the 100-yard rushing mark for the first time this season. They don't have the sufficient talent at the defensive tackle position, rookie LB Odell Thurman is still shaky on his gap control and the loss of S Madieu Williams for the season, a physical run-stuffer, have been their season-long ailments. And now you have Chad Johnson adding that extra motivation...

Steelers -3

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

The big matchup this week will be Falcons CB DeAngelo Hall versus Panthers WR Steve Smith. Expect the Faclons to give Hall lots of support to try to faze Smith out of the game. The key for the Falcons offensively will be trying to run the ball against the third-stingiest run defense in the NFL. They may catch a break as MLB Dan Morgan is hobbled with an ankle injury. The Falcons seem to own the Panthers and in the last three meetings Vick himself has 244 rushing yards. Between RB Warrick Dunn and QB Michael Vick, the Falcons seem to be able to exploit the Panthers over-aggressiveness, particularly DE's Julius Peppers and Mike Rucker.

Falcons +3

Injury Impact
-Rams offensive line without T Alex Barron (out) and T Blaine Saipaia (questionable, not expected to play) vs Redskins front seven
-Seahawks pass-rush without DE Bryce Fisher (very questionable) vs Eagles offensive line
-Chiefs offensive line without C Casey Wiegmann (questionable) vs Broncos front seven
-Bills secondary without CB Terrence McGee (questionable) and SS Lawyer Milloy (questionable) vs Dolphins passing offense
-Dolphins linebackers without Junior Seau (IR) and Zach Thomas (doubtful) vs Bills rushing offense
-Vikings run defense without DT Kevin Williams (out) vs Lions rushing offense
-49ers rushing offense without C Jeremy Newberry (IR), FB Fred Beasley (doubtful, not expected to play) and RB Frank Gore (doubtful, not expected to play) vs Cardinals rushing defense
-Cardinals rushing offense without G Jeremy Bridges (questionable, not expected to play) G Elton Brown (out), C/G Alex Stepanovich (out) and RB Marcel Shipp (doubtful, not expected to play vs 49ers rushing defense
-Steelers rushing offense without T Marvel Smith (out) vs Bengals rushing defense

Golokhov Power Rating
The rating for each team combines: strength of schedule, offensive and defensive productiveness, turnover ratio and special teams all relative to the rest of the league's performance. Official statistics that are used to calculate the ratings are provided by NFL.com.