One of the most discussed issues of the baseball offseason are the trade rumors. These rumors give fans the hope of landing a superstar; for parents getting to take their child to see their heroes donning their own uniforms. Trades will often indicate whether a team is serious about contending or building for the future. For every blockbuster, there are the seldom discussed ones that define a team. If a team know what they are doing, they can very well set up a team for the future. For every Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Lee Stevens, there are blockbusters that fizzle. Below are five trades that need to happen to define the 2008 season. Some are shocking because they involve big names, however sometimes big name players need to be traded for various reasons. 1) Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Andy LaRoche It might be tough to trade a guy with a near 900 OPS and the best left handed pitching prospect in the game and one of the better third base prospects in the game, but for the best pitcher in baseball it is worth it. This is one of the few deals that actually improves both teams. Though Santana will cost a bounty, he's well worth it for a team loaded in top prospects. Can you imagine a Johan Santana vs. Jake Peavy matchup for the NL West crown? They sure can. For Minnesota: Minnesota picks up two MLB ready players to vastly improve the offense. If Torii Hunter departs through free agency, Kemp can slide right in to centerfield, however if the Twins resign Hunter, he can slide into a corner spot. In LaRoche, the Twins get a very capable hitter and defender who will hit for average and decent power from the 2 or 6 spot in the lineup. He is infinitely better than any alternative they could get. In Kershaw, the Twins receive a strikeout pitcher whose career could very easily resemble Santana's and is still a year away which keeps costs down. For Los Angeles: Without a doubt the Dodgers acquire the best starting pitcher in the game by a wide margin. Their pitching staff would undoubtedly be tops in the NL, perhaps even able to rival Boston's for tops in the league. Santana would benefit from pitching in a terrific pitcher's park in Chavez Ravine. They are also able to afford his soon to be massive contract with Rafael Furcal and Jeff Kent coming off the books. Giving Santana a 5 year $145 million contract wouldn't really affect their profit based on the income he would generate. 2) Michael Young from the Texas Rangers to the Houston Astros for Troy Patton and Tommy Manzella. The Rangers are going absolutely nowhere in the next 3 years and rebuilding for the future would be the best idea possible. The Astros, on the other hand, are trying to win now with Ed Wade at the helm. Young was in the top 10 of every major category for shortstops and gives the Astros another terrific top of the order hitter. For Rangers: The Rangers' best strength is their youth. Patton is a very projectable left hander who shows good splits that project well into Rangers Field. Manzella is a decent hitting, amazing fielding shortstop. Manzella's bat might never translate well into the majors, but his glove and range sure will. This move also saves the Rangers about $70 million in the next few years. For Astros: Michael Young is one of the best and most underrated shortstops in the game providing around a perennial 800+ OPS and some of the best defense around. He would be ideal batting behind Hunter Pence and in front of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. 3) Garret Atkins from the Colorado Rockies to the Philadelphia Phillies for Adrian Cardenas and Carlos Carrasco It might be tough moving one of the key pieces who helped get the team to their first World Series, but such is the nature of the business. Ian Stewart is more than capable of closely replicating Atkins' production at a fraction of the cost, allowing the Rockies to upgrade elsewhere and save money for the hefty raise due to Matt Holliday. For Phillies: Atkins provides help for the Phillies' two biggest areas of need: the inability to find someone to play third base and the inability to pound left handers. Atkins plays a capable defense and is the exact type of hitter the Phillies crave, one who gets on base and hits for power. Also a plus, he is tremendous friends with Chase Utley and had chemistry from their days at UCLA. This lets the Phillies not worry about resigning Rowand, adding a position of need without much dropoff in production as they can platoon Greg Dobbs and Jayson Werth in right field, moving Shane Victorino back to his natural position of centerfield. For Rockies: Baker is a stud prospect and hit decently well in his first big league action. What they really add though, are two pretty strong prospects. Adrian Cadenas has no true position for the Phillies as Chase Utley is locked in to the spot and he really can't play elsewhere. Cardenas reminds many scouts of Utley and there is no team in this league who wouldn't kill for a Chase Utley. In Carrasco, the Rockies get a player who throws very hard but very wildly. The Rockies did wonders with another kid like that named Ubaldo Jiminez. If the Rockies are serious about being competitive, they have to add parts for the future and for the present. 4) Carlos Gonzalez from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Florida Marlins for Dontrelle Willis. The one thing each team can do, the other cannot. The Diamondbacks have a propensity for developing 5 tool outfielders while the Marlins have a propensity for developing high quality pitching prospects. Willis' value is at an all-time low, but his cost is going to continue to rise making him very easy to move. For Arizona: The Willis has had a very down year, he still showed flashes of brilliance, specifically against lefties. Willis has endured a lot of abuse over his brief career and has horrible mechanics, so as a precaution the Diamondbacks should insist on a full MRI and physical. Willis will help complement Webb as a 1-2 punch in the rotation that will be young and definitely pitch deep into games. Willis will also benefit from being in pitchers parks often too. For Florida: The Marlins acquire a potential 5-tool player who can plug right in to left or centerfield. He projects to a 290/350/450 player which any team would gladly take with some of the best defense in the game. He might never break 30 home runs, but should put up close to 75 total extra-base hits per season. 5) Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles to the Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem for Ervin Santna and Young-Il Jung. Both teams would have received a lot more had this trade gone through in 2006. As was rumored, it seemed that Baltimore would be receiving Santana, Erik Aybar and Nick Adenhart for Miguel Tejada. Frankly, Peter Angelos deserves all of the credit in the world for nixing that deal. It's not like Nick Adenhart is the best right handed pitching prospect in baseball now or anything. As it is, Tejada has lost all sense of range and needs to be moved to third base, something that will happen with the Los Angeles Angels. For Balitmore: Both starting pitchers have shown tremendous stuff, yet tremendous inconsistency. Ervin Santana has a chance to be a dominant number 2 or 3 starter; his stuff is unquestioned. Jung very well could be the best Asian import to ever take the mound. However, both are projects and could fizzle. Santana followed an unbelievable 2006 with a very poor 2007. Jung is still just an 18 year old learning a new country and parlaying his stuff into success. If both hit, the Orioles could have one of the better rotations in the game. For Los Angeles: The Angels flat out need people who can hit and drive the ball. They are the number one projected landing spot for Alex Rodriguez who could move to shortstop to accommodate Tejada's pending move to third base. He won't hit with the same power anymore, but will drive the ball to the gaps and get on base.

A friend of mine asked my opinion on the Baltimore Orioles and Andy McPhail specifically.  I decided to appease him and offer McPhail a free blueprint to contention.

The trades

1.     Miguel Tejada to the Los Angeles Angels for Brandon Wood

Both teams are better off going with the experience or youth, respectively.  The Angels are built to win now with some young reinforcements on the way, Miguel Tejada fits that mold perfectly.  He would be able to complement the Angels' lineup perfectly.  The Orioles get someone to play First Base exclusively who has 50 homer power.  Wood has his flaws, namely his strikeout to walk ratio, but has shown solid patience.  In Wood, the Orioles would have an extremely young piece for extremely cheap, being able to reinvent the farm and the team.

2.    Kevin Millar for to the Boston Red Sox for Hunter Jones

Millar is just taking up salary and roster space while still being productive.  It seems no secret that he wants to be in Boston and Boston still reveres him.  Jones projects to a solid middle reliever with reverse splits which makes him a very interesting option.  

3.    Melvin Mora and $10 million to the Florida Marlins for Scott Olsen and Ryan Tucker

The youth movement has to be fully embraced and accepted, that means sending veterans packing, even at a cost.  Mora would fill the centerfield hole that the Marlins have had for three years.  The Marlins have clearly tired on Olsen's antics and perhaps a new start would allow him to realize his potential.  For the Orioles, they get two potential middle of the rotation starters to help anchor their staff.  Olsen has frontline stuff and the ability to rake up strikeouts, but his maturity and temper really make him scary.  Ryan Tucker has really struggled in professional ball, but still has the chance to be special.  Part of success is risk, something the Orioles have been scared to do in the past.

4.    Danny Baez and Chad Bradford to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Preston Mattingly

Baez has been awful everywhere but Los Angeles in his career, so the Dodgers should be able to acquire him on the cheap.  Bradford is a very solid situational pitcher, something that can really help the team get over the hump in their own division.  Mattingly has had a very disappointing season but still is thought of as a legit MLB shortstop prospect, but still 2 years away.  Mattingly will never have a shot to break in with the Dodgers as they have 3 top SS prospects ranked ahead of him.  The Orioles very well might have to contribute about $7 million to get this deal done.

5.    Jay Payton to the Padres for Jared Wells

Payton lets the Padres play outfielder roulette and gives them a centerfield option if they come up short on any of the free agents.  Wells is another solid middle relief prospect who will cost very little.  The Orioles don't understand that bullpens are often fungible pieces built on the cheap.  Wells could very well be a legit specialist or a solid reliever.

6.    Brandon Snyder to the Philadelphia Phillies for Michael Bourn

Snyder will never get the shot to play in Baltimore with the extreme talent in front of him at many positions.  He fits for the Phillies who could use catching depth, especially young catching depth.  Bourn gives the Orioles a legit centerfielder and leadoff hitter with 50 steal capabilities.  He again offers youth as well as cost flexibility.  

Not taking into account raises, based on 2007 salaries the Orioles will be saving roughly $41.3 million in 2008.  This number gives them A LOT of flexibility in the free agency market.

 

Free Agency:

 

1.  Sign Alex Rodriguez to an 8 year, $275 million dollar contract.  Yes, this is a lot of money, but the Orioles are very close to competing.  Rodriguez would be able to hit in one of the best home run hitters parks in baseball while being in a city that offers him a chance to win and obscurity while staying in the AL, something he wants.   Rodriguez is predicted to bring in roughly $32 million in revenue alone, therefore the Orioles would only be paying an additional $4.375 million for the best player in baseball. 

 2. Avoid any other free agents


Projected 2009 lineup:

CF - Michael Bourn
2B - Brian Roberts
RF - Nick Markakis
SS - Alex Rodriguez
C - Matt Wieters
DH - Aubrey Huff
1B - Brandon Wood
3B - Bill Rowell
LF - Nolan Reimold

 

No. 1 - Erik Bedard
No. 2 - Adam Loewen
No. 3 - Scott Olsen
No. 4 -- Brandon Erbe
No. 5 - Daniel Cabrera
 
SU: Garret Olson
CL: Chris Ray
 

Imagine the feeling of acceptance by hundreds, the reverence of thousands and the eyes of millions watching. This is the start of the free agency period. The free agency period allows fans to feel hope, to feel they have a chance and to feel that baseball is just around the corner.

Many fans won't know the prospects, but most know the names of the big time stars. Free agents can energize an entire city and this class is no different.

Over the next couple of days the free agents will be broken down into lists of 20 ranked accordingly with their predicted landing spot and contract. Players with options that are near locks to be exercised, i.e. Greg Maddux, will not be included.


1) Alex Rodriguez - 3B/SS

What can't you say about Alex Rodriguez? He's rich, he's intelligent, he's attractive, he's the best player in the game and most of all, he's a publicity buzz all in himself. Rodriguez will have a chance to break the single season home run record with this new contract increasing revenues. Provided Rodriguez moves back to shortstop, he is going to provide Gold Glove defense and Silver Slugger offense.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels 8 years - $290 million

2) Andruw Jones - CF

Everyone wants to make a big deal about Jones' down year and declining defense. What no one forgot to mention was that even with a slight decline, Andruw Jones absolutely dwarfed the defensive competition. His swing has gotten longer causing him to collapse his back leg, something that is correctable. His hands haven't slown down, his mechanics have gotten sloppy. Jones has always shown tremendous power and range, something that make him ideal for a number of teams.

Prediction: San Diego Padres - 5 years, $57 million

3) Barry Bonds - LF/DH

Forget, if you will, the name and look only at the numbers. For a measly one of two year deal, a team can add a player with an OPS over 1000 with 30 homer power. In addition, the team still gets an average outfielder who is capable of 40-50 games in the field.

Prediction: Oakland Athletics - 1 year $10 million with a vesting option for '09

4) Kosuke Fukodome - RF

Fukodome is the best hitting Japanese import since Hideki Matsui. Fukodome might only hit 15-20 home runs but should hit around 50 doubles as he hits to all fields and sprays the ball extremely well. The only concern on him will be his recovery from elbow surgery. Fukodome won't bring the craze that Daisuke Matsuzaka did, but he will definitely attract a following.

Prediction: San Francisco Giants - 4 years $50 million

5) Adam Dunn - LF/DH Cincinnati Reds

Dunn has a team option and could very likely be declined with new manager Dusty Baker's traditionalist viewpoints on baseball. Dunn has weaknesses, notably strikeouts and defense, but his ability to get on base and hit the ball out off the ballpark make him extremely valuable to a team in desperate need of some pop from the DH spot.

Prediction: Los Angeles Angels 3 years $45 million

6) Torii Hunter - CF Minnesota Twins

Hunter could not have timed his best season to date better. Hunter showed excellent power and discipline. His defense is always going to be overrated, but is still very good, especially for a team who needs their centerfielder to cover more ground. Provided the team can get him on only a 4 year deal, this could be one of the better signings this offseason.

Prediction: Minnesota Twins 5 years $65 million

7) Mariano Rivera - RP New York Yankees

Rivera's flirtation with free agency has left many to wonder if the Sandman will seek employment elsewhere. He is still the best reliever at the game even in the twilight of his career. Any team who pursues him brings a lot of attention to themselves and shows themselves as true contenders.

Prediction: New York Yankees 3 years $39 million

8) Jorge Posada - C New York Yankees

As with Hunter, Posada could not have chosen a better time to have his best offensive season to date. Posada benefit greatly from getting scheduled time off and was fresh for most of the season. He should be allowed to play in 155-160 games per season provided he is able to DH in about 30.

Prediction: New York Yankees 3 years $40 million

9) Curt Schilling - SP Boston Red Sox

Schilling has become the master of controversy and the interview, earning his nickname of Red Light Curt. Schilling is truly a shell of his former self, but still capable of getting out hitters and pitching a lot of innings. His playoff success is well documented and his views make him especially good for a red state or moderate state as he will continue to talk and continue to alienate people as his career closes.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 2 years $25 million

10) Mike Lowell - 3B Boston Red Sox

What a difference a few years make. Lowell has gone from scrap heap salary dump back to All-Star with Boston. Lowell has played some of the best defensive third base in the game for his entire career with a vastly underrated bat. Lowell has completely resurged, though any team should be weary of going past 3 years to sign him.

Prediction: Boston Red Sox 3 years $37 million

11) Yorvitt Torrealba - C Colorado Rockies

Torrealba has certainly introduced himself to the world with his spectacular play during the postseason. He is a below average defender but shows a lot of poise at the plate and dare we say, clutchness or clutchitude. He has definitely been credited with helping the Rockies' young pitching staff evolve to the point they are today.

Prediction: Colorado Rockies 3 years $27 million

12) Aaron Rowand - CF Philadelphia Phillies

Rowand will likely inspire the most debate amongst the free agents. On one hand, Rowand had an incredible 2007; on the other hand, Rowand had a shaky 2002-2006. Rowand continues to provide the most overrated defense in the game, making his perceived value significantly higher than his actual value. Rowand has never had the ability to stay healthy with his reckless play, 2007 excluded. He might be the most overpaid player from this entire class.

Prediction: Chicago White Sox 5 years $55 million

13) Luis Gonzalez - OF Los Angeles Dodgers

Gonzalez continued to hit well with the Dodgers, though the power is declining. He moved from 52 doubles in 2006 to only 23 in 2007. That signals a declining trend, though Gonzalez has alternated good and bad years in his career. For any team willing to offer him a 1 year deal, they could reap the rewards significantly.

Prediction: 1 year $7.5 million Minnesota Twins

14) Tom Glavine - SP New York Mets

In 2007 Glavine finally got his 300th win. His career is essentially over, though he can masquerade as a number 4 starter on a playoff team, or a number 2 starter on a poor team. Glavine's fastball has really lost a lot of life which has caused him to take even more off of his changeup. He isn't quite the junkballer that Jamie Moyer is, but is getting close.

Prediction: Atlanta Braves 1 year $9 million

15) Omar Vizquel - SS San Francisco Giants

Even in his 40's, Vizquel's defense is still among the best in the game. He has become an even better hitter later in his career and could definitely be the player who puts a team over the top. He is better suited for the bottom part of a lineup on an AL team versus the top of the lineup in the NL.

Prediction: Chicago White Sox 2 years $16 million

16) Kaz Matsui - 2B Colorado Rockies

What a dramatic difference a change of scenery can make. Matsui was thought of as one of the biggest import busts with the Mets but is absolutely revered in Colorado. His loyalty will definitely be tested when he's presented with a chance to sign a very big money deal.

Predicton: Colorado Rockies 3 years $18 million

17) Kyle Lohse - SP Philadelphia Phillies

Lohse will reap the benefits of a strong close to the season and Scott Boras has to be licking his chops at the possibility. He showed great stuff with the Phillies and really buckled down with the team becoming one of the most consistent starters on the team. However, his problem has been consistency and the mental approach to the game. If he can harness his potential, he's a solid number 3 starter, though he might get paid like a much better performer.

Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies 3 years $24 million

18) Mike Piazza - DH Oakland Athletics

2007 marked Piazza's worst year in many years. His OPS was the lowest it had been since his rookie year, which doesn't project well for his future in the big leagues. Piazza will likely have to take another one year "prove it" deal.

Prediction: Minnesota Twins 1 year $6.5 million

19) Bartolo Colon - P Los Angeles Angels

Colon has really experienced an enormous fall from his once dominant self. His shoulder injuries of late have to make a team extremely weary as he is not exactly in the best shape to recover. However, his k/9 rating spiked up in 2007 which means the rest of his stuff should be returning soon. If a team is willing to take a chance on him, they could very easily reap the rewards.

Prediction: Cleveland Indians 2 years $10 million

20) Mark Prior - SP Chicago Cubs

As with Colon, Prior hasn't had a great year since 2005. However, like Colon he was pitching through immense shoulder problems. Unlike Colon, Prior is in arguably the best shape of anyone in baseball and is 7 years younger. All signs point to Prior being able to come back and dominate once fully recovered. It isn't easy to acquire an ace, but if Prior is even 4/5's of what he was in 2003 and 2004, the team gambling is going to get one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball.

Prediction: San Diego Padres - 2 years $11 million

Stay tuned for the next 20

For 28 teams, the offseason has already begun. Conversations are occurring on who should stay, who should go and who should just plain go away. The time is now to think about 2008, the free agency period, the draft and Latin American signings.

Here are 10 predictions for the coming offseason:

1) Alex Rodriguez will top $300 million dollars

2) Roger Clemens will finally stay retired ending the career of one of the best 10 pitchers in the history of the game.

3) Three marquee names will be traded: Johan Santana (Dodgers), Dan Haren (Mets) and Ken Griffey Jr. (Mariners)

4) The Milwaukee Brewers will take a chance on Eric Gagne

5) The centerfield roulette wheel will spin wildly with 7 teams starting new centerfielders in
2008: Rangers, Twins, Phillies, White Sox, Braves, Nationals, Oakland

6) A name that will be thrown around more than Paris Hilton's will be Roy Oswalt's, though he'll go nowhere

7) The Yankees' payroll will drop significantly

8) At least 40 players, many of whom All-Stars will be implicated for steroids, or other drugs

9) Instant replay will be added to playoff games

10) The most discussed name, Barry Bonds, will become the DH for Oakland accepting a one year, $10 million contract

Stay tuned tomorrow, for I will begin to predict free agent signings.

Too often teams are blindsided by turning the draft into a crapshoot rather than taking the players who will best help their team. It is now three full seasons since the 2004 draft, enough time to judge if a player is a stud, dud or somewhere in the middle.

In 2004, certain players had honored their commitment to their colleges or other sports, having them go undrafted. Matt Wieters and Andrew Brackman are two prime examples of players who fit this criteria, therefore they are excluded from this list, though players who did not sign are included.

2004 became known as the year of sticker shock, started primarily by the San Diego Padres who balked at the contract demands of Jered Weaver and Stephen Drew, the consensus top college pitcher and hitter available respectively.

This comprehensive look at the first round will be followed by the sandwich picks and rounds two and three, though in less detail. There were gems hidden throughout the draft just waiting to be found.

1. San Diego Padres - Matt Bush SS/RHP Mission Bay HS
To say this pick was a colossal failure could be the understatement of the century. In one of the most loaded draft classes in recent years, the Padres got sticker shock and opted for signability. Bush has since been moved back to the mound where he projects as a closer if he can stay healthy. If Bush reaches his potential, he could perhaps replace Trevor Hoffman which would allow this pick to save a little face. Bush features 4 pitches, one of which will likely be scrapped if he moves into the bullpen full time. He features a plus fastball that tops out at 98 mph with a biting slider, sharp curve and a very underdeveloped changeup.

Grade: D- with the chance of improving to B-
Could have had: Justin Verlander, Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew, Phil Hughes

2. Detroit Tigers - Justin Verlander RHP Old Dominion

For those who don't follow the draft well, this pick was actually scrutinized by many scouts and draft commentators. Verlander was thought of as a college pitcher who lacked command. After two of the best rookie and sophomore seasons to date, Verlander has quickly defied expectations and is in the top 20 pitchers in all of baseball. His fastball is a 75 pitch and his curveball a 72 with the changeup and slider as 60's. Verlander is the ace of a staff and can single handedly win a game for the team.

Grade: A+
Could have had: Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew

3. New York Mets-Philip Humber RHP Rice

This was a bad pick then and a worse pick now. Rice pitchers are notorious for having their arms abused and Humber projected as a middle relief pitcher, not something one expects from the number three pick in the draft. Humber will likely manage as a spot starter or middle reliever, but that will essentially be it. The Mets' pitching woes could have easily been helped had they taken a chance on a high school pitcher, or Jered Weaver here. Humber has had a litany of elbow problems that will likely lead to another Tommy John surgery.

Grade: D+
Could have had: Jered Weaver, Philip Hughes, Homer Bailey, Nick Adenhart

4. Tampa Bay Rays - Jeff Nieman RHP Rice

The same can be said about Nieman as is said about Humber, replacing elbow with shoulder. Nieman is an absolute horse on the mound losing a stare down only to Randy Johnson. Tampa Bay took the right position, but the wrong player. This pick has a chance to work out if Nieman can overcome shoulder injuries, something that could very well lead him down the career path of Kerry Wood as an amazing starter who was banished to the land of "what ifs?"

Grade: C - with a chance to improve to B+
Could have had: Jered Weaver, Philip Hughes, Homer Bailey, Nick Adenhart

5. Milwaukee Brewers - Mark Rogers RHP Mt. Ararat High School
One of the saddest stories of the 2004 draft is Mark Rogers. His stuff is the best I have ever seen, eclipsing Sandy Koufax and Bob Gibson. However, he has had a major shoulder injury that one can only pray that he recovers from. He is young enough that if he can even regain 4/5's of his dominance, he will become the best pitcher in the NL Central, bar none.

Grade: C/inc with the chance to move to either D or A
Could have had: Jered Weaver, Philip Hughes, Homer Bailey, Nick Adenhart

6. Cleveland Indians - Jeremy Sowers LHP Vanderbilt

Sowers has had his ups and downs in the MLB, but still projects as a number 3 starter. Sowers pitches to contact, which means that against patient lineups with power, he is going to get rocked at times. Sowers is unflappable on the mound, something necessary for the type of pitcher he is.

Grade: B
Could have had: Jered Weaver, Homer Bailey, Philip Hughes

7. Cincinnati Reds - Homer Bailey RHP LaGrange High School

Bailey is a flat out power pitcher who can dominate with a 95-98 mph fastball and a 12-6 curve that is flat out knee buckling. His ascension to MLB was very rapid, though once there he struggled mightily at times while flourishing at others. He missed a lot of the season with a groin injury, which can be one of the reasons his velocity was down and he was simply terrible at the big league level. His sophomore season should be significantly better if he stays committed to getting better and finds his confidence on the mound. At the major league level, he did what many young pitchers do - show incredible talent but also incredible youth.

Grade: B
Could have had: Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, Phil Hughes

8. Baltimore Orioles - RHP Wade Townsend RHP Rice

It seems that Baltimore's success with the third member of the Rice trio's was the most effective. Townsend did not sign and re-entered the draft in 2005, only to need Tommy John surgery. Though the Orioles did a terrible job at scouting and gauging their ability to sign, it could have worked out for them. Had Nick Adenhart been healthy, this would have been the lowest he'd have fallen, and should have been selected anyway. In addition to losing out on Townsend, the Orioles managed to botch the compensation pick awarded to them in 2005 as well.

Grade: F
Could have had: Nick Adenhart, Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew, Philp Hughes

9. Colorado Rockies - Chris Nelson SS Redan HS

Nelson is going to make an impact somewhere, though very unlikely in Colorado and very unlikely at shortstop. He shows a tremendous patience at the plate, but is moving through the minors very slowly. He has a lot of power and solid speed, though he might project to a three outcome hitter in the bigs. In the best hitters league, he slugged a robust .503

Grade: C-
Could Have Had: Stephen Drew, Jered Weaver, Phil Hughes

10. Texas Rangers- Thomas Diamond RHP University of New Orleans

Chalk another one to Tommy John surgery. If you had 30% of the top 10 picks needing TJ in the office pool, then congrats, you win! The bottom line on Diamond is that he was a 23 year old striking out hitters, but allowing WAY too many walks and runs. If he recovers fully, at best he can be a 4th starter, though his G/F ratio is going to be amplified in Arlington.

Grade: D+
Could have had: Jered Weaver, Philip Hughes, Nick Adenhart

11. Pittsburgh Pirates - Neil Walker C Pine Richland HS

The Pirates really hit here, though they might be cornering themselves, no pun intended, by moving him from catcher to third. He is a switch hitter who has power to all fields, but most of all a very short and compact swing that produces power rather than a power swing, think Chase Utley. There is no reason he can't win the starting third base job in 2008 and hit in the middle or top of the order.

Grade: A (if catcher), B+ if 3B
Could have had: Jered Weaver, Stephen Drew

12. Los Angles Angels - Jered Weaver RHP Long Beach State

At the time, without a doubt the consensus top player in the draft, Weaver only fell because of bonus demands. He has front line stuff and the attitude to go along with it. His mechanics suggest durability and the back turn hides the ball extremely well. As with Justin Verlander, Weaver has the ability to single handedly command a game.

Grade: A+
Could have had: Stephen Drew, Phil Hughes

13. Washington Nationals - Bill Bray RHP William and Mary

Arguably one of the 3 worst picks of the first round, Bray was unceremoniously dumped for lesser quality relievers. His peak value could be as a closer, though he's most likely going to be a 7th or 8th inning set up pitcher. He is a flyball pitcher pitching in a hitters park, a deadly combo for the Reds, who now own him. His grade is increased only because Wayne Krivsky stupidly gave up 2 solid regular players for Bray and Bray Sr., Gary Majewkski.

Grade: Pick - D, trade, B-
Could have had: Nick Adenhart, Scott Elbert, Phil Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, Huston Street

14. Kansas City Royals - Billy Butler INF Wolfson High School

Along with Alex Gordon, Butler is going to be the face of the Kansas City Royals in the year 2008-2012. He shows tremendous power and a very even stroke. Impressively enough, he has worked extremely hard to get better at defense and even plays a passable left field, though his ultimate position is likely to be DH or occasionally first base. He's a very likeable character too, something that helps when trying to forge an identity on a team. Think Travis Hafner

Grade: B+
Could have had: Scott Elbert, Stephen Drew

15. Arizona Diamondbacks - SS Stephen Drew Florida State

When the bonus demands soared for Drew and the plummet started, the Diamondbacks had to be doing the happy dance. Drew has shown why he was so highly regarded in his brief time in the show. He has delivered clutch hits, hits for power and average while playing some of the best defense in all of baseball.

Grade: A
Could have had: Phil Hughes, Scott Elbert, Josh Fields

16. Toronto Blue Jays - David Purcey LHP University of Oklahoma

This was a bad pick in 2004 and a worse pick in 2007. Even as a 25 year old in Double A, hitters were still destroying him. Purcey was a college lefty without a dominate pitch or any projectability. If he does sniff the big leagues, it will be as a late reliever or lefty specialist. Again, that's not really what is thought of a top 20 pick.

Grade: D-
Could have had: Phil Hughes, Nick Adenhart, Scott Elbert, Huston Street

17. Los Angeles Dodgers - Scott Elbert LHP Seneca High School
Scott Elbert is a dominating lefty who will anchor the Dodgers' rotation provided his minor nicks aren't lingering. Elbert had one of the best swing and miss percents in all of the minor leagues, something that bodes well for projectability at the major league level.

Grade: B
Could have had: Phil Hughes, Nick Adenhart, Josh Fields

18. Chicago White Sox - Josh Fields INF/OF Oklahoma State Unviersity

Though Fields is one of the most overrated prospects in the game, he is still an above average player and will help the White Sox. It was an astute pick as he can single handedly win a game for the White Sox, though he can also single handedly lose it.

Grade: C+
Could have had: Phil Hughes, Yovani Gallardo

19. St. Louis Cardinals - Chris Lambert RHP Boston College

...and swing and a miss. Lambert was not exceptionally impressive coming out of Boston College and has continued to underwhelm since signing. If Lambert ever makes the major leagues, it is going to be as a mop-up, late inning reliever. His stuff has vastly diminished leaving him as a shell of an overrated prospect.

Grade: D-
Could have had: Phil Hughes, Nick Adenhart, Yovanni Gallardo, Huston Street

20. Minnesota Twins - Trevor Plouffe SS/RHP Crespi Carmellite High School

Again, I don't understand the fascination with "toolsy" players who have no idea how to play baseball or to hit. Plouffe has shown very little plate discipline, and poor baserunning skills. Plouffe is another possible Quad-A player. Striking out often is not a big deal when it is coupled with high walk totals (see: Adam Dunn, Ryan Howard). Plouffe has a terrible walk rate and an extremely high strikeout rate, something that does not bode well at all.

Grade: D
Could have had: Phil Hughes, Yovanni Gallardo, Blake Dewitt

21. Philadelphia Phillies - Greg Golson OF Connaly HS

Apply everything said about Plouffe and apply it tenfold to Golson. He has every conceivable tool in the world but takes bad routes, can't hit and can't run well despite world class speed. Quite literally, this pick is one of the biggest failures in the first round. Golson could very well surprise people and have a magic light bulb turn on, but frankly that is very, very unlikely.

Grade: F
Could have had: Nick Adenhart, Phil Hughes, Yovanni Gallardo, Huston Sreet

22. Minnesota Twins - Glen Perkins LHP University of Minnesota

In the grand scheme of things, the Minnesota twins got a very solid middle reliever with the ability to start here. They passed on several possible aces and a shutdown reliever, but Perkins does have the ability to get both left and right handed hitters out. Being from Minnesota definitely helps raise his appeal as well. This was a safe pick when made, and they didn't get greatness, but they didn't waste a pick like so many teams do.

Grade: C+
Could have had: Huston Street, Phil Hughes, Gio Gonzalez

23. New York Yankees - Phil Hughes RHP Mission Hills High School

One of the best picks in the draft was taking Mark Prior lite who had very little signability concerns. Hughes is going to be the best pitcher on the Yankees' staff, including Wang and Chamberlain. Most importantly, he is a bulldog on the mound, something desperately needed in an ace. He throws hard and he throws strikes. The only reason he fell was because he was already physically mature at 18 and other teams like the "tools and rawness" that gets them absolutely nowhere.

Grade: A
Could have had: Yovanni Gallardo, Nick Adenhart

24. Oakland Athletics - Landon Powell C University of South Carolina

Powell is an absolute monster at the plate, slugging well over 500 at most stops. It's tough to project if his numbers are based on being older than most of his competition or if that he is truly special. He is essentially the Jack Cust of catchers, something that bodes well for the team he is on.

Grade: C
Could have had: Nick Adenhart, Gio Gonzalez, Yovanni Gallardo,

25. Minnesota Twins - Steven Waldrop RHP Farragut High School

He has struggled at every level above A ball, which is not a good sign for future success. Waldrop might never have a career in the big leagues as he has no out pitch. He will be a 22 year old in A-Ball and barring a meteoric rise, he will likely finish the season no higher than Double A.

Grade: D
Could have had: Yovanni Gallardo, Gio Gonzalez, Huston Street

26. Oakland Athletics - Richard Robnett CF Fresno

Failure. Robnett can't hit, can't field, can't run, can't play. Bluntly put, he is a one trick pony and at best a bench player who can come in and hit a long ball or stike out. Beane doesn't miss often, but here he certainly did.

Grade: F
Could have had: Blake Dewitt, Gio Gonzalez, Yovanni Gallardo

27. Florida Marlins - Taylor Tankersly LHP University of Alabama

Tankersly is at worst a left handed specialist/set up man, best case scenario he becomes a dominant closer. He is physically a hose and capable of sustaining multiple innings of work, something very advantageous in a pitcher. His slider is a 66-69 pitch to left handers and a 55-59 pitch to right handers. A safe pick, but a definite need in a bullpen.

Grade: B-
Could have had: Huston Street, Gio Gonzalez, Nick Adenhart

28. Los Angeles Dodgers - Blake Dewitt 2B Sikeston High School

Dewitt has had a roller coaster coaster season but has generally been productive. He doesn't walk much, but doesn't strike out often either. He is very much a contact hitter, best suited for the number 2 hole. Dewitt is another one of the Dodgers' legit and touted prospects. He'll likely make a few All-Star games and be a very solid second baseman.

Grade: C
Could have had: Reid Brignac, Dustin Pedroia, Hunter Pence

29. Kansas City Royals - Matthew Campbell LHP University of South Carolina

Another "safe" pick that will not work out. Campbell has a chance to break in as a solid middle reliever, but nothing more. All pitches rank as 49-59 with curveball being his out pitch. He shows great command, something that is integral for a reliever.

Grade: C-
Could have had: Huston Street, Nick Adenhart, Yovanni Gallardo

30. Texas Rangers - Eric Hurley RHP Wolfson High School

Hurley has shown a tremendous ability to pitch well and pitch well in ballparks like Arlington. He is never going to be mistaken for an ace, but will be a very capable 2 or 3 starter in the mold of Kevin Millwood.

Grade: B-
Could have had: Nick Adenhart, Yovanni Gallardo, Huston Street

This is how the draft SHOULD have gone

1. San Diego Padres - Jered Weaver RHP Long Beach State University
2. Detroit Tigers - Justin Verlander RHP Old Dominion
3. New York Mets- Phil Hughes RHP Foothill High School
4. Tampa Bay Rays - Jeff Nieman RHP Rice
5. Milwaukee Brewers - Mark Rogers RHP Mt. Ararat High School
6. Cleveland Indians - Jeremy Sowers LHP Vanderbilt
7. Cincinnati Reds - Homer Bailey RHP LaGrange High School
8. Baltimore Orioles - Nick Adenhart RHP Williamsport High School
9. Colorado Rockies - Hunter Pence OF Unviersity of Texas Arlington
10. Texas Rangers- Yovanni Gallardo RHP Temple Technical High School
11. Pittsburgh Pirates - Neil Walker C Pine Richland HS
12. Los Angles Angels - Billy Butler INF Wolfson High School
13. Washington Nationals - Gio Gonzalez LHP Monsignor Edward Pace High School
14. Kansas City Royals - SS Stephen Drew Florida State
15. Arizona Diamondbacks - Scott Elbert LHP Seneca High School
16. Toronto Blue Jays - Dustin Pedrioa 2B Arizona State
17. Los Angeles Dodgers - Huston Street RHP University of Texas
18. Chicago White Sox - Josh Fields INF/OF Oklahoma State Unviersity
19. St. Louis Cardinals - David Price LHP Blackman High School
20. Minnesota Twins - Eric Patterson SS Georgia Tech
21. Philadelphia Phillies -Matt Bush RHP Mission Bay High School
22. Minnesota Twins - Mark Reynolds 3B University of Virginia
23. New York Yankees - Wade Davis RHP Lake Wales High School
24. Oakland Athletics - Chris Ianetta C University of North Carolina
25. Minnesota Twins - Landon Powell C/DH University of South Carolina
26. Oakland Athletics - Jacob McGee LHP Reed High School
27. Florida Marlins - Taylor Tankersly LHP University of Alabama
28. Los Angeles Dodgers - Blake Dewitt 2B Sikeston High School
29. Kansas City Royals - Wade Townsend RHP Rice
30. Texas Rangers - Eric Hurley RHP Wolfson High School