Perhaps there is no bigger crap shoot in baseball than the first year player draft. It does not have the allure of the NFL draft, or the sexiness of the NBA draft, but rest assured, it is just as important. There are no crippling blows if the franchise quarterback does not pan out, but there certainly are monumental failures that can set a franchise back.

For the first time in the draft's history, a team will have back to back picks. The Tampa Bay Rays earned this dubious honor by ineptitude and poor fundamental play. Their farm system is incredibly deep already and the results have shown in the 2008 season.

The 2008 draft is different in many regards from the previous few seasons. For the first time in four years, there is no consensus number one pick and the decision is cloudy on who will be chosen number one overall. There are five premier players in this draft, all with superstar potential. Much like 2006, it might not become clear until a week before the draft who the choice will be. However, this creates suspense, allows for rampant disinformation and negates many possible wink wink deals that so often occur in baseball.

Tampa Bay must choose between need and want, talent or need and the battle of cost. In 2007, they showed no hesitance giving out an MLB deal to David Price. The rumored bonus demands of 2008 are sure to shape the draft in many ways. Talent will inevitably fall and good players will be chosen by good teams.

Many agree that this draft is lacking a lot of depth in the prep pitching ranks and some overall talent. However, that's not to say there aren't some bona fide superstars to come out of this draft.

With that, the Tampa Bay Rays are on the clock:

1. Tampa Bay Rays - Kyle Skipworth, C Patriot HS

Call this a hunch, but I have to go with this. The big rumor floating around scouting circles is that the Rays are enamored with Buster Posey. Their biggest organizational need is catcher, and there really aren't any players with as high of a ceiling as Skipworth in this draft. It's always risky choosing prep catchers in the draft. In fact, only two in the past two decades have moved on to become All-Stars, Joe Mauer and Mike Lieberthal. Skipworth possesses an excellent arm behind the plate and a very projectable bat. He might never hit more than 20 home runs, but will make up for it with a very high number of doubles. He does have some minor issues to work out, like footwork behind the plate, but that's easily corrected with solid instruction.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Tim Beckham, SS Griffin HS

Without a shadow of a doubt, Beckham is the most talented and toolsy player in the draft. Beckham very well could be a tough sign for the Pirates, but they've expressed willingness to spend money with Neil Huntingdon in charge. The rumors floating around are that they are looking to draft more high schoolers than in recent years, selecting a college arm in both 2006 and 2007. Beckham has a few question marks about translating his myriad of oozing tools into baseball ability. Beckham profiles at just a shade below BJ Upton and Brandon Phillips at a comparable age. He has 5 legit tools and has 30/30 ability. His baseball instincts are very good, but just needs some refinement on his fundamentals.  Beckham has the arm and reaction time to remain at shortstop, however is athletic enough to handle a move to centerfield. Though with Andrew McCutchen in the fold, a move seems unlikely.

3. Kansas City Royals - Brian Matusz, LHP University of San Diego

The 2007 draft saw the Kansas City Royals balk at Rick Porcello's asking price when pitching was ways and away their biggest need. Undoubtedly Matusz will command similar money, but offer significantly less risk. Matusz is one of the few pitchers who was extremely good in high school and stayed that way through college. Matusz profiles as a legit number one starter to anchor the Royals' staff for years to come offering three plus pitches and an above average slider. His stay in the minors is likely to be a very short one, perhaps even making his season debut in the number 5 spot of the Royals' 2009 rotation. His spring has been slightly inconsistent, but many college pitchers featuring a plus changeup are hit harder in college because of the bat speed generated by aluminum. Matusz compares favorably to Roy Halladay and Cole Hamels, which will definitely boost the Royals' rotation.

4. Baltimore Orioles -Gordon Beckham, SS Georgia

Beckham has legit power and flashes it by leading all of Division 1 in homers. His defense is average at best, but is passable, especially with the natural advantage of his bat at a premium position. Beckham compares favorably to a young Nomar Garciaparra with the same skill set. It's not out of the realm of possibility to imagine both Beckham and Wieters as the 3 and 4 hitters as early as the All-Star break of 2009.

5. San Francisco Giants - Pedro Alvarez, 3B Vanderbilt

The Giants have shown that they are not afraid to deal with Scott Boras and Boras' insane contract demands. In selecting Alvarez, the Giants are able to select the most complete and polished bat in the class at a major position of need. Many scouts question if Alvarez can stay at third base at the highest level, but with uber prospect Angel Villalona moved to first, he will stay at third based solely on need and organizational depth. Alvarez has hit for power and average across every level in which he has played and more importantly has had the spotlight on him for two full seasons and has more than lived up to the hype and embraced the superstar potential that he possesses. While many scouts feel that Alvarez lacks the necessary contact skills to be a 300 hitter in the bigs, he compares favorably to other elite third basemen in recent years. With these lofty expectations and a major offensive void left by Barry Bonds, Alvarez should fit right in. As an added bonus, Alvarez has always been loved and with Brian Sabean putting a premium on character and niceness post Bonds, this seems like a match made in heaven.

6. Florida Marlins - Buster Posey, C Florida State

Posey has climbed draft boards almost as fast as his prep counterpart in Kyle Skipworth. He has received serious consideration for the number one overall pick. Posey offers a very complete set of tools from behind the plate, but might only be slightly above average in the majors. He should hit for contact, but his power numbers will fall to earth and be severely deflated by the Giants' home park. However, Posey will play gold glove defense while fluctuating from year to year in the mid 280's up to the low 300's and getting on base. Immediately upon being drafted, Posey will be the Marlins' best hitting prospect.

7. Cincinnati Reds - Tanner Scheppers, RHP Fresno

Other than Skipworth, no player has shot up draft boards faster than Tanner Scheppers. Scheppers features a dominant fastball that touches the high 90's with an absolutely filthy slider that is nearly unhittable. Scheppers also throws a 11-5 power curve and a developing change, but with his relative inexperience, it's to be expected. At worst, Scheppers is the next Brad Lidge while at best, he is a front line starter. Scheppers has shown the ability to strikeout batters while managing reasonable groundball/flyball splits that will seriously help him in Great American. New general manager Walt Jocketty has shown an affinity for selecting college arms and not breaking slot; Scheppers will fit both molds.

8. Chicago White Sox - Aaron Crow, RHP Missouri

What don't the White Sox need? Their farm system is ways and away the worst in baseball and Ken Williams continues to mortgage the future for the present. In Crow, the White Sox get arguably the best pitcher in the draft who is going to command an awful lot of money. The White Sox' brass has shown a willingness to spend money, though rarely breaks slot. Crow has demonstrated excellent command as evidenced by his 43 inning scoreless streak. There are some mechanical issues that any team selecting Crow has to hope won't result in injury. However, his fastball/breaking ball combination would definitely play well in the AL Central and his fastball is big league ready now topping out at 98 mph.

9. Washington Nationals -Shooter Hunt, RHP Tulane

Hunt has catapulted himself into the top 10 with an absolutely dominating spring showing increased velocity and most of all, improved command. Hunt is flatly a strikeout pitcher, something the Nationals definitely need. His command still needs some refinement and he'll never be in the top 25 in walks, but offsets it with his pure dominance. His strikeout to walk ratio will compare to Carlos Zambrano's, but simply enough to dominate a game.

10. Houston Astros - Tim Melville, RHP Holt HS

Coming into the season, Melville was a top 5 pick, but his velocity has been really down and many are wondering if he's a candidate for Tommy John surgery. Also, being a prep pitcher in 2008 really is working against many players as this is an absolutely atrocious class. If Melville returns to form, he projects as a true number one starter with a mid 90's fastball, two breaking pitches and a surprisingly well developed changeup. If fully healthy, Melville would have slot just below Porcello and Bumgarner and ahead of Parker in the 2007 draft. His bat should surprise a few people, especially pitching in Minute Maid park.

11. Texas Rangers - Justin Smoak, 1B University of South Carolina

Coming into the season, it'd have been nearly impossible to envision Smoak falling out of the top 5, let alone almost the top 10. Smoak's season has been disappointing but switch hitting first basemen with 40 home run potential are few and far between. The Rangers really have helped reload their farm system over the past two years, and Smoak is another integral piece. Smoak will help remind Rangers fans of their last switch hitting first basemen--Mark Teixeira.

12. Oakland Athletics - Eric Hosmer, 1B American Heritage HS

Hosmer fills not only an organizational need, but also he is without a doubt the top player on the board here. He profiles as a middle of the order slugger with a plus glove and a plus-plus arm. He is eerily reminiscent of Casey Kotchman and Adrian Gonzalez at the similar age, offering a comparable offensive and defensive skill set. He possesses the type of bat that can change games in a heartbeat. His eye at the plate is comparable to a college senior rather than a high school senior. His bat speed generated is absolutely ridiculous. It'll be a tough sign for Beane, but Hosmer is worth it. Adviser Scott Boras is said to be looking for a $7 million big league deal and if that's the case, Hosmer will undoubtedly fall much lower. Beane regularly goes college, but Hosmer is the closest can't miss high school prospect in quite some time.

13. St Louis Cardinals - Yonder Alonso 1B, University of Miami

Seldom do the Cardinals take risks in the first round, though with Alonso still on the board, it has to be done. Alonso's bat provides a smooth and easy left handed swing with prototypical doubles and home run power. The Cardinals will run into the problem on where to play Alonso as Albert Pujols is currently occupying first base and he won't be moving anywhere any time soon. Alonso has been tried in the outfield but has been only average there. With the correct coaching, he should be able to slide right into left field and the middle of the order. His approach is smooth and easy and he is never afraid to take a walk.

14. Minneosta Twins - Brett Wallace, 3B Arizona State

There are questions whether the Twins truly get it or not, often going for signability, batting average and raw tools while ignoring many baseball skills. Wallace has shifted to third base this season and has looked surprisingly good there, and could stick at third in the bigs. He will take walks, hit for power and get on base. Something the Twins will definitely be enamored with is that Wallace is almost assuredly willing to sign for slot or right below.

15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Gerrit Cole, RHP Orange Lutheran HS

It's no secret that the Dodgers love prep arms and Cole is arguably the top one in the class. However, Cole has an awful lot of negatives going against him, much like Kyle Drabek. Cole's mechanics are terrible, he is being advised by Scott Boras and he's as likely to strike someone out as he is throw at their head and spit on them. However, he is a local kid and the Dodgers tend to lock on a select few high school arms and move from there. They've gone prep pitcher every year since 2002, sans 05 where they lacked a first round pick. If Cole pans out, this is going to be a steal.

16. Milwaukee Brewers - Josh Fields, RHP Georgia

It is no secret that Milwaukee is in a win now mode, and Fields certainly helps fit that bill. Eric Gagne looks like a disaster closing games for the Brewers and Fields could have the job by September. The Brewers again go with a college senior, erasing almost any and all signability concerns. Fields throws in the upper 90's with a nasty slider that is a flat out strikeout pitch.

17. Toronto Blue Jays - Christian Friedrich, LHP Eastern Kentucky

The Jays almost always go college arm and this year should be no different. Friedrich has a smooth delivery and should be able to move extremely quickly through the Jays' system. He has a dominant 12-6curveball that looks a lot like Rich Hill's and Barry Zito's and offsets it with a solid fastball with a lot of movement. He isn't going to be a top flight starter, but he will fill in very nicely behind Roy Halladay and perhaps split he and Burnett.

18. New York Mets - Ethan Martin, RHP/3b Stephens County HS

The Mets have said publicly that they plan to start spending more in the draft, and the natural thought is that they plan to start breaking slot for high school players. Martin has long been considered a power hitting third basemen, but when he stepped on the mound his future became very clear. He throws in the upper 90's with surprisingly good breaking stuff and a very good changeup. His slurve is a definite two planer, which really will make a world of difference against wood where bat speed is negated.

19. Chicago Cubs - Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF Woodrow Wilson HS

The skills are there, the only question mark on Hicks is where they should play him. From the mound, he has a mid 90's fastball and a power curve that comes in dancing in the upper 80's. From the outfield, he is a bona fide 5 tool prospect, very reminiscent of Andre Dawson. He has a cannon for an arm from centerfield and has plus-plus speed which projects him to a 30 steal per season player. The Cubs will have to be patient with him and determine which position is best for him, and not bail if he struggles.

20. Seattle Mariners - Conor Gillaspie, 3B Wichita State

Gillaspie is a prototypical left handed third basemen with an easy swing and natural power. His main question is whether he can stay at third. His swing is very smooth and easy and will project to very high doubles totals in Safeco. The Mariners tend to go college, so this almost makes too much sense. Gillaspie should be the starting third basemen in Seattle the second Adrian Beltre's contract expires.

21. Detroit Tigers - Kyle Lobstein, LHP Coconino HS

Having completely emptied the farm system, sans Rick Porcello, the Tigers go to the high school ranks to help give organizational depth and a potential number 2 starter. Lobstein does not have overwhelming stuff, but definitely makes up for it with plus command and control. His fastball is in the upper 80's to low 90's,with a very nasty curveball and a developing, yet solid change. His total package is reminiscent of Barry Zito, especially his loose and repeatable delivery.

22. New York Mets -Brett DeVall, LHP Rutherford HS

The Mets go prep arm again in an attempt to rebuild an aging rotation. Devall is a textbook left handed pitcher with a fastball in the high 80's to low 90's with excellent movement and great command of an arsenal of breaking pitches.  DeVall has competed on the highest levels and has maintained an even keel, something that is important in ultra competitive NL East. He should reach the majors very early and have success, despite mediocre peripherals. However, his command should allow him to be successful, much like Tom Glavine.

23. San Diego Padres - Tyson Ross, RHP University of California

The Padres usually go the college route and this year should be no different. Ross has befuddled many scouts and there is not a consensus opinion on his ability orprojectability . Despite his size, he lacks intense velocity and pitches like a stereotypical left handed crafty veteran. He will need some considerable refinement on his mechanics and overall pitching prowess. However, the skill is there and with mechanical refinement, an extra 3-5 mph on his fastball seems possible. He is a 3-4 year project, with incredible risk versus reward outcomes.

24. Philadelphia Phillies - Alex Meyer, RHP Greensburg HS

The Phillies regularly go with a high school arm and Meyer is an absolute monster on the mound standing at 6'7" and he should fill out to about a lean 230 pounds. Meyer commands a fastball in the low to mid 90's with an absolutely devastating slider. His changeup, like many high schoolers, is raw, but is there. His size suggests durability as he has been a workhouse in his high school days. He has legit ace potential.

25. Colorado Rockies - Brett Hunter, RHP Pepperdine

The Rockies routinely go with a college arm, having gone that direction the past two seasons. Hunter profiles as either a number 2 starter or dominant closer. He has a high effort delivery but amazing results, comparable to Tim Lincecum. His mid 90's heater is accentuated by a filthy and sharp slider. He might take longer than most college righties as he has been moved around by Pepperdine.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Lance Lynn, RHP Mississippi

Lynn doesn't have dominating stuff, but does offer projectability at a position of need. He is a textbook college pitcher with above average command and intangibles. With Arizona having given up quite a few of its pitching prospects to acquire Dan Haren, it is no secret that they need some serious upgrades. 2006 first rounder Max Scherzer looks destined for the bullpen as many predicted, and 2007 first rounder Jarrod Parker is still two years away. Lynn is a prospect who should move quickly through the minors and help the Diamondbacks sooner rather than later.

27. Minnesota Twins - Dennis Raben, OF Miami

Raben is a pretty sure bet to be a solid, yet unspectacular player in the bigs. He'll hit for average, some power and play solid defense and most of all, should sign for slot or slightly below. On a loaded team, only Yonder Alonso has stood out more than Raben. There is a very good chance that he will not be around this low, but if the draft shapes out this way, it's to be expected.

28. New York Yankees - Isaac Galloway, OF Los Osos HS

If Galloway is still around this low, it's only because of signability. The Yankees are not afraid to flex their financial muscles. Galloway is a true 5 tool prospect, with emphasis on tools. He is an incredibly fluid athlete with an amazing power and speed combo. The Yankees will have to be patient with him as there are holes in his swing, but the reward seems worth the risk. His final position will likely be right field where his power arm can be utilized fully. The Yankees' system is lacking premium offensive talent. Former over hyped prospect Jose Tabata has really struggled and was recently suspended and the rumor is floating that he has asked for his release. Austin Jackson profiles as a lead off hitter and centerfielder and has been markedly over hyped in his own regard. The Yankees' hype machine can continue to roll.

29. Cleveland Indians - Jarret Martin, LHP Centennial HS

Another very late riser, Martin throws a low 90's fastball with very solid changeup and a slow curve. For a high school pitcher, he is extremely polished and could easily reach the show faster than some of his high school counterparts. If he can improve his velocity by perhaps 2-3 mph, dominance is possible. His three pitches are reminiscent of a very raw Cole Hamels, which in itself is a daunting reputation to live up to.

30. Boston Red Sox - Trey Haley, RHP Central Heights HS

Haley has shown a very repeatably smooth delivery with a mid 90's fastball and late breaking hammer curveball. He is tall and has the typical pitchers body. Haley has really come on as of late and has moved from a third round pick to possible late first, or sandwich picks. He has drawn comparisons to Clay Buchholz in stature and raw stuff.

Stay tuned for the supplemental round and draft notes in the next few days.

While the upcoming NFL Draft is only a month away and receives the accolades, it is never too early to start looking towards June. This year won't have any speculation of will Bill Parcells trade the pick or not? There won't be talk of Matt Ryan starting from day one. No, this year will be discussions for the future, as it always is. This year will ask if the college cream of the crop will make an immediate impact in one year, or if they just have the raw tools.

This is, after all, one of the most top heavy drafts in recent memory, but still lacks a definitive number one prospect like David Price in 2008. There are approximately five players who will undoubtedly be at the top of most team's draft boards, but the order could vary in many different permutations. Does the team value raw baseball skill or do they value an advanced understanding of the game? Do they prefer projectability or to shoot for the moon. All of these questions circle through scouts' heads constantly when going over the prospects.

This year is no different; this year there are prospects whose raw skills are off the chart but lack plate discipline, but there are also prospects whose raw skills have peaked and they offer a smooth projectability with little risk, but also little reward. For the first time ever, the same team will have two successive number one overall picks, and for the fifth time since their conception the Tampa Bay Rays will select first overall. And the Rays are on the clock.....


1. Tampa Bay Rays - Aaron Crow, RHP University of Missouri

Crow's stock has taken a tremendous jump over the past two years, and now becomes part of a group of pitching prospects that would make any team jealous. Crow has flashed a plus fastball with incredible velocity, topping out at 98 mph, with incredible secondary pitches. While some might question his sudden jump in velocity over the past three years, he is a gamer and would pencil in alongside the left handed studs Tampa Bay currently has, Kazmir, Price and McGee. Crow should be ready to pencil in as the 4th starter as early as 2009.


2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B Vanderbilt

Many feel that Alvarez is the most talented player in the draft, who has hit for power and average across every level in which he has played. Alvarez has had the spotlight on him for two full seasons and has more than lived up to the hype and embraced the superstar potential that he possesses. While many scouts feel that Alvarez lacks the necessary contact skills to be a 300 hitter in the bigs, he compares favorably to other elite third basemen in recent years.

Here are two sophomore lines of reigning NL Rookie of the Year Ryan Braun compared to Pedro Alvarez

Ryan Braun - .335/.439/.606
Pedro Alvarez - .386/.463/.684

If Alvarez can rebound from his broken hand quickly, he should make his big league debut shortly after being drafted, if Pittsburgh is willing to spend the money to run up his service time. A more likely scenario would be Alvarez starting for Pittsburgh on opening day of 2009.

3. Kansas City Royals - Brian Matusz, LHP University of San Diego

The 2007 draft saw the Kansas City Royals balk at Rick Porcello's asking price when pitching was ways and away their biggest need. Undoubtedly Matusz will command similar money, but offer significantly less risk. Matusz is one of the few pitchers who was extremely good in high school and stayed that way through college, most recently David Price was an example of this. Matusz was drafted in the third round of the 2005 draft based purely on his stuff and his command. In college, Matusz added an extra 5 mph to his fastball, which sits comfortably in the low 90's and topping out at 94. He should add an extra 2-3 mph as his body and muscles fully grow. Matusz profiles as a legit number one starter to anchor the Royals' staff for years to come.

4. Baltimore Orioles - Justin Smoak, 1B University of South Carolina

The Orioles' front office has to be feeling elated having Matt Wieters and Justin Smoak fall in to their lap in successive years. Both profile to be 3 and 4 hitters, with Smoak comparing favorably to Justin Morneau and Adrian Gonzalez. Smoak has a truly elite bat and could easily surpass 40 homers a season, especially playing in Baltimore which inflates offense. Smoak will probably be a tough sign, but the Orioles should get it done.

5. San Francisco Giants - Eric Hosmer, American Heritage HS

The Giants have always been able to develop pitching extremely well, but have failed miserably in their attempts to develop a solid to regular position player. Hosmer is undoubtedly the best high school bat in the class and should only need two years in the minors to develop. He profiles as a middle of the order slugger with a plus glove and a plus-plus arm. He is eerily reminiscent of Mark Teixeira at the similar age, offering a comparable offensive and defensive skill set. He possesses the type of bat that can change games in a heartbeat.

6. Florida Marlins - Tim Beckham, SS/2B Griffin HS

If for some reason Beckham is still around at pick 6, the Marlins will undoubtedly be chomping at the bit to select him. Beckham is a freakishly smooth athlete who does everything well. He profiles more so as a second basemen in the bigs, comparable to Brandon Phillips. When Beckham finally grows in to his enormous skill set, there should be no problem reaching a few 30/30 seasons. Beckham is on the Marlins' ideal track as being 3 years away as they are trying to keep their service time to a minimum while their new stadium is being constructed. Beckham, Ramirez and Dominguez will be a powerful infield for a decade if the Marlins decide to keep all together.

7. Cincinnati Reds - Gerrit Cole, RHP Orange Lutheran HS

Cole has risen considerably over the season to the top two prep arms in the country. He flashes a mid 90's fastball with a filthy 10-4 curveball. However, the Reds must be patient with him as his changeup is still incredibly raw and his mechanics are flawed at best. However, many scouts consider him the best prep pitcher from Southern California since Phil Hughes. There is no doubt that there is always an inherent risk with high school arms, just few offer what Cole does.

8. Chicago White Sox - Tim Melville, RHP Holt HS

The White Sox should be thanking their lucky stars if Tim Melville falls this far. Melville has the best projectability of any prep arm in this draft. He combines a mid 90's fastball with above average breaking pitches and already has a good feel for his changeup. He has a repeatably fluid delivery and appears to be over his minor injuries. He profiles as a true number two starter on a playoff team and could be a number one. He should easily be able to amass 200 strikeouts per season in the bigs. Melville also has a solid bat that should catch a few people off guard in interleague.

9. Washington Nationals - Yonder Alonso 1B/C, University of Miami

The Nationals might not need a first basemen, but Alonso's bat can't be passed up here. He profiles as an 800+ OPS bat with plus defense. Alonso could be kept behind the plate, but it is unlikely. Alonso will move quickly and the Nationals have shown no hesitation rushing a player if they feel he is ready or if they feel the player can help the team. Alonso, Zimmerman, Marrero and Detwiler will become the new face of Washington baseball, providing excellent character and offense.

10. Houston Astros - Isaac Galloway, OF Los Osos HS

All we can say is that Ed Wade loves his toolsy outfielders. Galloway is a true 5 tool prospect, with emphasis on tools. He is an incredibly fluid athlete with an amazing power and speed combo. The Astros will have to be patient with him as there are some holes in his swing, but the reward seems worth the risk. His final position will likely be right field where his power arm can be utilized fully. Few players have his extreme skill set.

11. Texas Rangers - Alex Meyer, RHP Greensburg HS

The name of the game for the Rangers is still pitching. Meyer is an absolute monster on the mound standing at 6'7" and he should fill out to about a lean 230 pounds. Meyer commands a fastball in the low to mid 90's with an absolutely devastating slider. His changeup, like many high schoolers, is raw, but is there. His size suggests durability as he has been a workhouse in his high school days. He has legit ace potential.

12. Oakland Athletics - Jacob Thompson, RHP University of Virginia

Billy Beane goes the safe route here and stockpiles pitching, especially projectable pitching.
Thompson projects as anywhere from a number 1-4 starter. Thompson will amass numbers that won't always blow someone away, but he really is the quintessential college right hander. His numbers will be regularly consistent around 200 IP, 140 SO, 50 BB. Thompson shouldn't need much time in the minors as well, but the A's can afford to be patient with him.

13. St. Louis Cardinals - Kyle Skippworth, C Patriot HS


The Cardinals elect to go with the best player available again, taking a very highly touted catching prospect in Skippworth. Skippworth is one of the few power hitting catching prospects in the high school ranks. His defense is a plus and he has demonstrated the maturity to handle any pitching staff. He has received comparisons to Joe Mauer, however unfair they may be. He has All-Star worthy skills behind the plate and should immediately become the Cardinals' top prospect.

14. Minneosta Twins - Harold Martinez, SS Braddock HS

Few player posses the skills Martinez does. He has arguably the best glove in the draft as well as pure natural power from the right side. There have been a lot of Alex Rodriguez comparisons made, but a more accurate one would be Scott Rolen as Martinez will likely be moved to third base by the time he reaches the big leagues. Martinez will be a tough side as he has made a strong commitment to Miami, but that shouldn't be a problem assuming the Twins don't low ball him like they have others in the past.

15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Aaron Hicks, RHP/OF Woodrow Wilson HS

The Dodgers are going to have an extremely tough decision to make as Hicks profiles as a 5 tool outfielder and a number 2 starter on the mound. As a pitcher, he throws consistently in the mid 90's with a power curve that even Mark Prior would be impressed with. As an outfielder, he compares to a very young Andre Dawson. He could easily amass 40 steals as well as 30 outfield assists with his extremely accurate cannon for an arm. The Dodgers will probably move him to the outfield full time, but he could easily stick on the mound if the Dodgers feel they can harness his extreme skillset.

16. Milwaukee Brewers - Ryan Perry, RHP University of Arizona

Perry might have the best pure stuff of anyone in this class and has the potential to contribute immediately. His fastball is consistently in the upper 90's and his slider could make Barry Bonds look foolish when it is on. His problem has been command, but has improved mightily over the years. He profiles as a closer for the Brewers and compares well to Francisco Rodriguez.

17. Toronto Blue Jays - Brett DeVall, LHP Rutherford HS

The Blue Jays must continue to add to their pitching depth in order to stay competitive. Devall is a textbook left handed pitcher with a fastball in the high 80's to low 90's with excellent movement and great command of an arsenal of breaking pitches. DeVall has competed on the highest levels and has maintained an even keel, something that is important in the AL much more so than the NL. He should reach the majors very early and have success, despite mediocre peripherals. However, his command should allow him to be successful, much like Tom Glavine.

18. New York Mets - Brett Wallace, 1B Arizona State

Wallace has a big time bat to go along with a big time frame. He could easily hit 40 home runs or could easily eat himself out of the league. However, these knocks were given to a certain big bodied son of a former major leaguer who is now an All-Star. Wallace has an amazing approach at the plate and has shown the patience of a veteran. Despite his size, he is a very capable defensive first basemen and will help the Mets immensely. With the higher OBP guys in front of him, Wallace could easily drive in 120 per season.

19. Chicago Cubs - Christian Friedrich, LHP Eastern Kentucky

Friedrich is another extremely projectable lefty with a dominating curve and incredibly good command. His command is solid, though his walk totals are a little bit discouraging. He should be able to soar through the low levels of the minors based on his extremely good secondary stuff. A fair comparison would be between Rich Hill and Barry Zito, as all three rely on their curveball to work a hitter. Friedrich pitches backwards regularly, which affords a different look.

20. Seattle Mariners - Jordan Danks, OF University of Texas

Considering Danks' amazing skill set, it has to be considered a steal to have him still on the board at 20. Danks has one of the best approaches at the plate in college and has raw power, but it has been slower to translate on to the diamond. He has very good speed and should average 10-15 steals per season. Danks can play any outfield position, but projects best to left field where his bat and speed will become extreme pluses.

21. Detroit Tigers - Buster Posey, C Florida State

After essentially destroying their farm system for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, the Tigers need to rebuild and rebuild quickly. Posey has a very good bat that profiles with gap power and a howitzer behind the plate. He most closely resembles the man he could replace in Ivan Rodriguez defensively. He has the ability to move extremely quickly through the Tigers' system and make the majors as early as 2009.

22. New York Mets - Jemile Weeks, 2B University of Miami

Rickie's little brother has an eerily reminiscent skill set with just a little bit less fluidity and better power. Weeks profiles as a leadoff hitter or a number two hitter and reminds many of Luis Castillo. He is a better defender than his brother and does posses incredible speed on the basepaths. 30 steals per season are not out of the question by any stretch of the imagination.

23. San Diego Padres - Ethan Martin, 3B Stephens County HS

Martin is exactly what the Padres ordered-power, power and more power. Martin brings instant slugging to the Padres lineup, which lacks it immensely. Martin has some holes in his swing that will deflate his average, but his OBP should maintain solid with his incredible eye at the plate. Martin has been compared to Matt Williams by some, though Troy Glaus is a much more realistic comparison. As a defender, he has a plus-plus arm with plus range that will allow him to stay at third base for his entire career.

24. Philadelphia Phillies - Brett Hunter, RHP Pepperdine

The Phillies finally ended their playoff drought in 07, but unfortunately their pitching still stunk up the joint. Their farm system doesn't offer much reassurance either with their best two arms, Carlos Carrasco and Josh Outman, profiled as a 3 and 4 starter respectively. Hunter profiles as either a number 2 starter or dominant closer. He has a high effort delivery but amazing results, comparable to Tim Lincecum. His mid 90's heater is accentuated by a filthy and sharp slider. He might take longer than most college righties as he has been moved around by Pepperdine.

25. Colorado Rockies - Tyson Ross, RHP University of California

Ross has befuddled many scouts and there is not a consensus opinion on his ability or projectability. Despite his size, he lacks intense velocity and pitches like a stereotypical left handed crafty veteran. He will need some considerable refinement on his mechanics and overall pitching prowess. However, the skill is there and with mechanical refinement, an extra 3-5 mph on his fastball seems possible. He is a 3-4 year project, with incredible risk versus reward outcomes.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Gordon Beckham, SS/2B, University of Georgia

One of the Youngest and most dynamic teams, the Diamondbacks have very few overall holes on their team. Beckham offers pretty good power from the middle with above average defense. He does few things amazingly, but does everything well. His power is legit but profiles as gap power. 15-20 home runs and 35-40 doubles are not out of the realm of possibility, especially with his amazing speed. He will almost assuredly need to move to second base in the minors and especially in the minors. His ceiling is All-Star while his floor is a utility player.

27. Minnesota Twins - Cole St. Clair, LHP Rice

After injuries and ineffectiveness plagued the Twins' rotation, they are in complete rebuild mode. St. Clair offers good projectability and some of the best swing and miss stuff in the game. He is a groundball pitcher as well as manufacturing plenty of swing and misses. He has had some minor injury issues, biceps tendinitis, that has affected his velocity but has fully recovered. He should progress very quickly through the minors as his level of competition faced would rival that of high A ball.

28. New York Yankees - Scott Green, RHP Kentucky

The Yankees gamble again on a big and oafish pitcher with Tommy John history. The difference this time is that Green was once one of the most prominent prospects in the game. His fastball will sit in the low 90's with a great slider and sinker and extreme deception. He's a middle of the rotation type starter who should be able to log a lot of innings.

29. Cleveland Indians - Sonny Gray, RHP Smyrna HS

Gray has absolutely filthy pure stuff, but his height will seriously deter people from drafting him, unfortunately. He is about 5'11" 180 soaking wet. His mechanics are clean and he has a solid mid 90's fastball that is coupled with a hard slider in the mid 80's. His commitment to Vanderbilt is also an issue as it will take quite a bit to sign him away. He has number 1 stuff.

30. Boston Red Sox - Brandon Crawford, INF UCLA

Crawford is very similar to Bradon Wood as both have immense power but lack elsewhere. The
Red Sox can afford to take a chance on him developing. If he taps in to his vast potential his juniro season, there is a very good chance he won't be around this long. He is very unlikely to stay at shortstop with a corner position likely, or perhaps left field where his speed and bat make him a natural fit.

Hello readers! Long time no update and I appreciate your patience. With spring training under way, there is no time like the present to dive in to predictions for awards and runners up for the 2008 season.

Winners marked with an asterisk (*)

Cy Young:

NL:

*1. Johan Santana
2. Cole Hamels
3. Jake Peavy

Santana is easily the best pitcher in baseball, dominating in every measurable category. His flyball tendencies will help be offset by the dimensions of Shea Stadium and again by Citibank Field. Being backed by the Mets' offense, Santana figures to put up very large win numbers, unfortunately the main determination of merit in the eyes of the baseball writers of America.

AL:

*1. Justin Verlander
2. Josh Beckett
3. John Lackey

As with Santana, Verlander will benefit from having an incredible offense around him. In Verlander's second full season, his strikeout rate increased by almost 2.25 per game. Continuing that trend in 2008, there is no reason Verlander can't win 25 games and strike out 225.

MVP:

NL:

*1. Chase Utley
2. Matt Holiday
3. David Wright

Before Utley broke his hand in 2007, he was the clear leader in the polls, trailing only Alex Rodriguez in VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). Without a doubt, Utley is the best second basemen in baseball providing the best defense and offense in the NL. There is no reason to think that his 2008 should be any different than his 2007, sans a freak injury.

AL:

*1. Alex Rodriguez
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Travis Hafner

In 2007 Alex Rodriguez reminded everybody who the best player in baseball is--by a landslide. Rodriguez absolutely dominated the competition putting up incredible numbers in metrics and sabermetrics, trouncing the second place AL hitter (Magglio Ordonez) in VORP by almost 10 points.

Rookie of the Year:

NL:

*1. Cameron Maybin
2. Jay Bruce
3. Matt LaPorta

Maybin figures to receive 700 at bats in Florida and be at the top of their lineup, which immediately gives him the advantage based on sheer playing time. Maybin has a long swing and his numbers may be suppressed by Dolphins Stadium, but tool for tool he is comparable to his 05 draft mates, Justin Upton and Jay Bruce.

AL:

*1. Evan Longoria
2. Clay Buchholz
3. Carlos Gonzalez

Longoria is amongst the elite prospects of the last 10 years. He combines a fluid swing with natural power and a very solid glove at third base. His numbers will likely be of All-Star consideration and comparable to Ryan Braun's in 2007. His presence makes the Rays' infield and offense that much more potent. A 300 / 395 / 500 line as a rookie isn't out of the realm of possibility.

Standings:

NL East:

1. Phillies
*2. Mets
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

NL Central:

1. Brewers
2. Cubs
3. Cardinals
4. Reds
5. Astros
6. Pirates

NL West:

1. Padres
2. Diamondbacks
3. Dodgers
4. Rockies
5. Giants


AL East:

1. Red Sox
2. Yankees
3. Rays
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles

AL Central:

1. Tigers
*2. Indians
3. White Sox
4. Royals
5. Twins

AL West:

1. Angels
2. Mariners
3. A's
4. Rangers

* indicates Wild Card

World Series: Tigers def. Padres
World Series MVP: Miguel Cabrera

One of the most discussed issues of the baseball offseason are the trade rumors. These rumors give fans the hope of landing a superstar; for parents getting to take their child to see their heroes donning their own uniforms. Trades will often indicate whether a team is serious about contending or building for the future. For every blockbuster, there are the seldom discussed ones that define a team. If a team know what they are doing, they can very well set up a team for the future. For every Bartolo Colon for Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee and Lee Stevens, there are blockbusters that fizzle. Below are five trades that need to happen to define the 2008 season. Some are shocking because they involve big names, however sometimes big name players need to be traded for various reasons. 1) Johan Santana from the Minnesota Twins to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw and Andy LaRoche It might be tough to trade a guy with a near 900 OPS and the best left handed pitching prospect in the game and one of the better third base prospects in the game, but for the best pitcher in baseball it is worth it. This is one of the few deals that actually improves both teams. Though Santana will cost a bounty, he's well worth it for a team loaded in top prospects. Can you imagine a Johan Santana vs. Jake Peavy matchup for the NL West crown? They sure can. For Minnesota: Minnesota picks up two MLB ready players to vastly improve the offense. If Torii Hunter departs through free agency, Kemp can slide right in to centerfield, however if the Twins resign Hunter, he can slide into a corner spot. In LaRoche, the Twins get a very capable hitter and defender who will hit for average and decent power from the 2 or 6 spot in the lineup. He is infinitely better than any alternative they could get. In Kershaw, the Twins receive a strikeout pitcher whose career could very easily resemble Santana's and is still a year away which keeps costs down. For Los Angeles: Without a doubt the Dodgers acquire the best starting pitcher in the game by a wide margin. Their pitching staff would undoubtedly be tops in the NL, perhaps even able to rival Boston's for tops in the league. Santana would benefit from pitching in a terrific pitcher's park in Chavez Ravine. They are also able to afford his soon to be massive contract with Rafael Furcal and Jeff Kent coming off the books. Giving Santana a 5 year $145 million contract wouldn't really affect their profit based on the income he would generate. 2) Michael Young from the Texas Rangers to the Houston Astros for Troy Patton and Tommy Manzella. The Rangers are going absolutely nowhere in the next 3 years and rebuilding for the future would be the best idea possible. The Astros, on the other hand, are trying to win now with Ed Wade at the helm. Young was in the top 10 of every major category for shortstops and gives the Astros another terrific top of the order hitter. For Rangers: The Rangers' best strength is their youth. Patton is a very projectable left hander who shows good splits that project well into Rangers Field. Manzella is a decent hitting, amazing fielding shortstop. Manzella's bat might never translate well into the majors, but his glove and range sure will. This move also saves the Rangers about $70 million in the next few years. For Astros: Michael Young is one of the best and most underrated shortstops in the game providing around a perennial 800+ OPS and some of the best defense around. He would be ideal batting behind Hunter Pence and in front of Lance Berkman and Carlos Lee. 3) Garret Atkins from the Colorado Rockies to the Philadelphia Phillies for Adrian Cardenas and Carlos Carrasco It might be tough moving one of the key pieces who helped get the team to their first World Series, but such is the nature of the business. Ian Stewart is more than capable of closely replicating Atkins' production at a fraction of the cost, allowing the Rockies to upgrade elsewhere and save money for the hefty raise due to Matt Holliday. For Phillies: Atkins provides help for the Phillies' two biggest areas of need: the inability to find someone to play third base and the inability to pound left handers. Atkins plays a capable defense and is the exact type of hitter the Phillies crave, one who gets on base and hits for power. Also a plus, he is tremendous friends with Chase Utley and had chemistry from their days at UCLA. This lets the Phillies not worry about resigning Rowand, adding a position of need without much dropoff in production as they can platoon Greg Dobbs and Jayson Werth in right field, moving Shane Victorino back to his natural position of centerfield. For Rockies: Baker is a stud prospect and hit decently well in his first big league action. What they really add though, are two pretty strong prospects. Adrian Cadenas has no true position for the Phillies as Chase Utley is locked in to the spot and he really can't play elsewhere. Cardenas reminds many scouts of Utley and there is no team in this league who wouldn't kill for a Chase Utley. In Carrasco, the Rockies get a player who throws very hard but very wildly. The Rockies did wonders with another kid like that named Ubaldo Jiminez. If the Rockies are serious about being competitive, they have to add parts for the future and for the present. 4) Carlos Gonzalez from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Florida Marlins for Dontrelle Willis. The one thing each team can do, the other cannot. The Diamondbacks have a propensity for developing 5 tool outfielders while the Marlins have a propensity for developing high quality pitching prospects. Willis' value is at an all-time low, but his cost is going to continue to rise making him very easy to move. For Arizona: The Willis has had a very down year, he still showed flashes of brilliance, specifically against lefties. Willis has endured a lot of abuse over his brief career and has horrible mechanics, so as a precaution the Diamondbacks should insist on a full MRI and physical. Willis will help complement Webb as a 1-2 punch in the rotation that will be young and definitely pitch deep into games. Willis will also benefit from being in pitchers parks often too. For Florida: The Marlins acquire a potential 5-tool player who can plug right in to left or centerfield. He projects to a 290/350/450 player which any team would gladly take with some of the best defense in the game. He might never break 30 home runs, but should put up close to 75 total extra-base hits per season. 5) Miguel Tejada from the Baltimore Orioles to the Los Angeles Angels of Anahiem for Ervin Santna and Young-Il Jung. Both teams would have received a lot more had this trade gone through in 2006. As was rumored, it seemed that Baltimore would be receiving Santana, Erik Aybar and Nick Adenhart for Miguel Tejada. Frankly, Peter Angelos deserves all of the credit in the world for nixing that deal. It's not like Nick Adenhart is the best right handed pitching prospect in baseball now or anything. As it is, Tejada has lost all sense of range and needs to be moved to third base, something that will happen with the Los Angeles Angels. For Balitmore: Both starting pitchers have shown tremendous stuff, yet tremendous inconsistency. Ervin Santana has a chance to be a dominant number 2 or 3 starter; his stuff is unquestioned. Jung very well could be the best Asian import to ever take the mound. However, both are projects and could fizzle. Santana followed an unbelievable 2006 with a very poor 2007. Jung is still just an 18 year old learning a new country and parlaying his stuff into success. If both hit, the Orioles could have one of the better rotations in the game. For Los Angeles: The Angels flat out need people who can hit and drive the ball. They are the number one projected landing spot for Alex Rodriguez who could move to shortstop to accommodate Tejada's pending move to third base. He won't hit with the same power anymore, but will drive the ball to the gaps and get on base.

A friend of mine asked my opinion on the Baltimore Orioles and Andy McPhail specifically.  I decided to appease him and offer McPhail a free blueprint to contention.

The trades

1.     Miguel Tejada to the Los Angeles Angels for Brandon Wood

Both teams are better off going with the experience or youth, respectively.  The Angels are built to win now with some young reinforcements on the way, Miguel Tejada fits that mold perfectly.  He would be able to complement the Angels' lineup perfectly.  The Orioles get someone to play First Base exclusively who has 50 homer power.  Wood has his flaws, namely his strikeout to walk ratio, but has shown solid patience.  In Wood, the Orioles would have an extremely young piece for extremely cheap, being able to reinvent the farm and the team.

2.    Kevin Millar for to the Boston Red Sox for Hunter Jones

Millar is just taking up salary and roster space while still being productive.  It seems no secret that he wants to be in Boston and Boston still reveres him.  Jones projects to a solid middle reliever with reverse splits which makes him a very interesting option.  

3.    Melvin Mora and $10 million to the Florida Marlins for Scott Olsen and Ryan Tucker

The youth movement has to be fully embraced and accepted, that means sending veterans packing, even at a cost.  Mora would fill the centerfield hole that the Marlins have had for three years.  The Marlins have clearly tired on Olsen's antics and perhaps a new start would allow him to realize his potential.  For the Orioles, they get two potential middle of the rotation starters to help anchor their staff.  Olsen has frontline stuff and the ability to rake up strikeouts, but his maturity and temper really make him scary.  Ryan Tucker has really struggled in professional ball, but still has the chance to be special.  Part of success is risk, something the Orioles have been scared to do in the past.

4.    Danny Baez and Chad Bradford to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Preston Mattingly

Baez has been awful everywhere but Los Angeles in his career, so the Dodgers should be able to acquire him on the cheap.  Bradford is a very solid situational pitcher, something that can really help the team get over the hump in their own division.  Mattingly has had a very disappointing season but still is thought of as a legit MLB shortstop prospect, but still 2 years away.  Mattingly will never have a shot to break in with the Dodgers as they have 3 top SS prospects ranked ahead of him.  The Orioles very well might have to contribute about $7 million to get this deal done.

5.    Jay Payton to the Padres for Jared Wells

Payton lets the Padres play outfielder roulette and gives them a centerfield option if they come up short on any of the free agents.  Wells is another solid middle relief prospect who will cost very little.  The Orioles don't understand that bullpens are often fungible pieces built on the cheap.  Wells could very well be a legit specialist or a solid reliever.

6.    Brandon Snyder to the Philadelphia Phillies for Michael Bourn

Snyder will never get the shot to play in Baltimore with the extreme talent in front of him at many positions.  He fits for the Phillies who could use catching depth, especially young catching depth.  Bourn gives the Orioles a legit centerfielder and leadoff hitter with 50 steal capabilities.  He again offers youth as well as cost flexibility.  

Not taking into account raises, based on 2007 salaries the Orioles will be saving roughly $41.3 million in 2008.  This number gives them A LOT of flexibility in the free agency market.

 

Free Agency:

 

1.  Sign Alex Rodriguez to an 8 year, $275 million dollar contract.  Yes, this is a lot of money, but the Orioles are very close to competing.  Rodriguez would be able to hit in one of the best home run hitters parks in baseball while being in a city that offers him a chance to win and obscurity while staying in the AL, something he wants.   Rodriguez is predicted to bring in roughly $32 million in revenue alone, therefore the Orioles would only be paying an additional $4.375 million for the best player in baseball. 

 2. Avoid any other free agents


Projected 2009 lineup:

CF - Michael Bourn
2B - Brian Roberts
RF - Nick Markakis
SS - Alex Rodriguez
C - Matt Wieters
DH - Aubrey Huff
1B - Brandon Wood
3B - Bill Rowell
LF - Nolan Reimold

 

No. 1 - Erik Bedard
No. 2 - Adam Loewen
No. 3 - Scott Olsen
No. 4 -- Brandon Erbe
No. 5 - Daniel Cabrera
 
SU: Garret Olson
CL: Chris Ray