Coming into the season, the Detroit Tigers were widely praised for "winning the offseason." After all, they had just traded for perennial all-star Miguel Cabrera and former Cy Young runner up, Dontrelle Willis. These moves excited a Tigers fan base who had lost the World Series two years prior.

The Tigers thought they had acquired a young, Hall of Fame talent in Cabrera, whose closest 4 year comp has continued to be Hank Aaron. What team wouldn't want Cabrera? However, Larry Beinfest managed to play Dave Dombrowski like a fiddle. Cabrera was the best name in the deal, and he has had an average year thus far, though he is still far below his career norms.

The second biggest name in the deal, Dontrelle Willis, added size to the deal just based on reputation alone. Looking at Willis' numbers, it's clear that he is one of the most overrated and overvalued talents in baseball. Save his 2005 season, Willis has been relatively mediocre in the big leagues. There has been a three year trend with Willis that is exceptionally alarming. Each year his strikeouts decrease, walks increase and hits allowed increases. These numbers, his peripherals, all are trending downwards.

When statistically evaluating a pitcher, it is important not to fall victim to the rate statistics. A pitcher's earned run average, ERA, fluctuates from year to year based on many confounding variables-defense, park factor, schedule, scoring, et al. However, his hit, walks and strikeouts per 9 innings pitched tend to remain steadfast and offer a true indicator of success. When a player is in his prime, these numbers often improve and offer a pattern of prediction for value.

Marlins fans clamored when their team traded away their two biggest names, leaving only Hanley Ramirez. However, it is clear that Larry Beinfest knows what he is doing and Dave Dombrowski was still enamored with the big name. Though Andrew Miller hasn't pitched particularly well in 2008, he is still offering the same production Willis would have at a tenth of the cost.

Below will show the extreme disparity in Willis' numbers and trend. It's a shame to see the career unfolding before our eyes of a young, by all accounts nice man.

No intros needed, you know the drill

Draft Day Mock

1. Tampa Bay Rays - Tim Beckham, SS Griffin HS

There are three players mentioned here, Beckham, Alvarez and Posey.  Of the two, only Alvarez and Beckham have true 1.1 ability while Posey is just an organizational need who would sign for slot.  Beckham offers the complete package, 30/30 ability with plus defensive ability.  He should remind the Rays of their 2002 first round choice, BJ Upton.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B Vanderbilt

Arguably the worst kept secret in the draft is the Pirates' willingness to spend for Alvarez.  In Alvarez, the Pirates get a cornerstone piece to continue to build around gearing for a 2010 run at the NL Central.  Alvarez has legit power and passable defense at third base and has handled the superstar role quite well for Team USA.  His collegiate numbers surpass Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman.  His ascension to the bigs should be quick provided the Pirates can sign him early.

3. Kansas City Royals - Eric Hosmer, 1B Heritage HS

Boy do the Royals need some offense, losing out in team homers to Dan Uggla in the month of May.  Hosmer is the best pure bat in the draft, and provides great defense as well.  The Royals are pretty locked in on Hosmer and have negotiated well with Boras in the past.  Hosmer and Moustakas give the Royals' farm system a major boost and bode well for them building from within much like the Rays.

4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP San Diego

This seems to be the consensus pick, which troubles me.  The Angelos are absolutely crazy, though have started to come to their senses in the past year or so pillaging the Mariners for Erik Bedard and drafting Matt Wieters.  Matusz is a projectable lefty who should absolutely fly through the minors if signed early.  It's not out of the realm of possibility for Matusz to be in the opening day rotation in 2009.  This Cole Hamels/Roy Halladay clone should easily clutch the title of ace in Baltimore and be All-Star worthy in 2010.

5. San Francisco Giants - Buster Posey, C Florida State

With all the talk of Posey going number 1, this seems to be his most logical landing place and best fit.  Posey lacks the skill set of the players selected before him and only projects to an above average catcher.  Frankly, he is eerily reminiscent of Josh Bard, which is not something you want from a top 5 pick.  He is a fluid athlete behind the plate but is very raw.  In a system craving for legit hitting prospects not named Angel Villalona, Posey should be starting in Double A.

6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C Patriot HS

Another far from secret pick.  Skipworth has the highest ceiling of any high school catcher in recent memory, offering legit 20 homer power from behind the plate.  The comparisons to Joe Mauer are going to exist, albeit slightly unfairly, but not unjustifiably.  With any high school catcher, the question lingers about if he can remain behind the plate, but his bat will translate anywhere on the diamond.  Skipworth is pretty far from the majors, but the Marlins have demonstrated patience with their prospects and will give him all the time he needs to develop.

7. Cincinnati Reds - Gordon Beckham, SS Georgia

The Reds need some power up the middle and Beckahm is the best player on the board here.  Beckham's bat translates well at a premium position and he has the ability to hit 30+ homers.  His defense is passable at short, but make no mistake, he's a hitter.  He's very comparable to a young Nomar.

8. Chicago White Sox - Justin Smoak, 1B South Carolina

The White Sox offense has been struggling all season and Jim Thome is on his last legs and Paul Konerko has started to show signs of decline.  Smoak has legit 40 homer power and plays a passable defense at first, though he might profile better as a DH if he adjusts.  He won't hit for a high average and looks like a 3 outcome hitter, but the power is certainly there.

9. Washington Nationals - Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS

As an outfielder, selecting Hicks here is a bit of a reach.  However, as a pitcher, Hicks offers frontline stuff including an upper 90's fastball with an absolute hammer curve.  As an every day player, Hicks' preference, he is a textbook Bowden draft pick offering the chance at 5 plus tools and a natural ability to play centerfield.

10. Houston Astros - Bret Lawrie, 3B Brookwood SS

No bat in this class has risen faster that Lawrie who is a pure athlete with an exceptionally projectable bat and frame.  Lawrie with a comparable skill set to Eric Hosmer, with a much cheaper price tag.  He has power to all fields and offers plus defense at third base.

11. Texas Rangers - Aaron Crow, RHP Missouri

Rangers' owner Tom Hicks has always shown the willingness to spend big for Boras clients and right now Aaron Crow is arguably the best player available at a position of need.  Crow has some questions about his game but  has had incredible results on the mound.  Crow offers a plus fastball that will touch 98 mph.  He might fall in to the line of power reliever down the line, but does have front line stuff if his velocity increase and results improvement are all legit.

12. Oakland Athletics - Yonder Alonso, 1B Miami

This almost seems like too good of a fit.  Oakland has plenty of 1B/DH types, but Alonso is the best option possible.  He profiles as a 30 home run player with a 300/450 batting average, on base percentage guy.  Many think he'll be one of the fastest to reach the show from this draft class.

13. St. Louis Cardinals - Joshua Fields, RP Georgia

St. Louis reaches a little bit but gets a big time pitcher at a big time hole.  Fields should be an extremely easy sign as a college senior.  It's not out of the realm of possibility for him to start closing for Double A within a week of him signing.  The Cardinals will likely push him very aggressively and he could be in the bullpen as early as late August.

14. Minneosta Twins - Anthony Hewitt, SS Salisbury HS

Hewitt is exceptionally raw, but ways and away the best athlete in the draft.  His skill set is comparable to Tim Beckham, but he lacks an overall fundamental approach to the game.  If Hewitt's skills catch up to his athleticism, he could be the steal of the draft.  With a new park on the way, homegrown talent is going to improve the club's outlook.

15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Christian Friedrich, LHP Eastern Kentucky

Friedrich breaks the mold of the Dodgers going prep arm, but he's by far the best player available.  His stuff isn't dominant, but it's definitely workable.  He looks a lot like a young Barry Zito with a sweeping breaking ball.  Of all the pitchers in this draft, Freidrich has the chance to reach the show first.

16. Milwaukee Brewers - Tim Melville, RHP Holt HS

Entering the season, Melville was thought to be extremely special, but due to a myriad of problems, he has fallen.  The Brewers could luck out tremendously if Melville returns to form and having his velocity return to where it was over the summer.  Melville is going to command a bonus over slot, but the Brewers should pony up this season with increased revenue.  Melville offers a low 90's fastball and two solid breaking pitches.  His changeup is still very much a work in progress making a Jeremy Bonderman comparison fair.

17. Toronto Blue Jays - Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State

If Wallace lasts this long, a very unlikely scenario, but the way it has played in this draft, the Jays might be doing backflips.  Wallace might not be the dominating player in the bigs that he has been in college, but should be a very good player.  He has an outside chance to stay at third base, but a move back to first seems likely.  He is going to provide an incredible OPS and flash quite a bit of power.  He is remenscent of a young Kevin Youkilis.  

18. New York Mets - Jason Castro, C Stanford

The Mets have a pension for continually sticking to slot and going college reliever, but with Brian Schneider as the starter and no real depth in the system, the Mets go for a reliable college backstop who will be a plus defender and a league average hitter.  He commands a staff well and has been known for his leadership, something that should endear him to Mets fans.

19. Chicago Cubs - Jake Odorizzi, RHP Highland HS

The Cubs take the best player on the board adding another arm to their fairly deep system.  Odorizzi has absolutely shot up boards with a power fastball and hammer curve that really complement his easy delivery.  He has the highest ceiling of any high school arm in the class but is also very raw.  The Cubbies have never shied away from taking power arms that need some coaching.  If they are patient, this could be an extremely astute draft choice.

20. Seattle Mariners - Zach Collier, OF Chino Hills HS

After completely destroying their farm system for Erik Bedard, the Mariners draft a young and athletic outfielder.  Collier has plus speed and a chance to be a very good contact hitter with solid power.  He plays a natural centerfield but could have to move to a corner position if he grows in to his body.

21. Detroit Tigers - Gerrit Cole, RHP Orange Lutheran

There is no question that Cole has the best arm in this draft.  There is also no question that Cole is just as likely to throw another 101 MPH heater for the strikeout as he is to throw 100 MPH at someone's head, spit on them and then throw his glove at his fallen body.  Cole's delivery is very reminscent of Jake Peavy's with a lot more torque on the elbow, making him a huge injury concern.  His price tag could be close to Rick Porcello's in 2007, and Cole's polish is nowhere near that of Porcello.  Cole is a candidate to stay in the minors for quite some time to work on polish and maturity.  The Tigers tend to identify power players and pay them whatever it takes.  If Cole can mature and stay healthy, he and Porcello will be the best 1/2 punch in baseball.


22. New York Mets - Andrew Cashner, RP TCU

It really wouldn't be a draft without the Mets taking a college reliver.  Cashner throws hard and he throws stikes, making his stay in the minors likely a short one.  If the Mets continue to falter down the stretch, many of their spare parts will likely be dealt and Cashner should get a chance to take over setup duties from Aaron Heilman and eventually replace the aging Billy Wagner.

23. San Diego Padres - Lance Lynn, RHP Mississippi

Very few things in the draft are constant, but the Padres going safe and college almost always seems to be the case.  Lynn doesn't profile as anything more than a number three, but at worst he profiles as a number 5.  He is physically developed and what you see is what you get.  He isn't going to blow away hitters, but will get hitters out with an arsenal of pitches.  He steps it up when it counts.

24. Philadelphia Phillies - Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP Stephens County HS

It will be VERY interesting to see what the Phillies do with Martin. He is very new to pitching, but has excelled on the mound showing a big time fastball and an even better slurve.  He is pretty raw but has all of the skills to excel.  As a third basemen, he looks very similar to Troy Glaus with excellent power.  The Phillies have been looking for a third basemen since they dealt Scott Rolen but always seem to lack pitching.

25. Colorado Rockies - Shooter Hunt, RHP Tulane

Hunt's biggest question mark has been command and it has really come undone for him in the past few weeks.  He shows great velocity and secondary stuff, but his command is what separates him frmo being a number 2 starter and a fringe starter/middle reliever.  If the Rockies are patient with him and don't push him, they should get a steal here.  However, the chance that he makes it and miss it are just about even.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Ryan Perry, RHP Arizona

After the D-backs traded quite a bit of their farm system for Haren and traded away Jose Valverde, the Diamondbacks have had some bullpen issues.  Brandon Lyon has been incredibly good as the closer, but Tony Pena has been markedly average in a set up roll.  Perry shows a fastball that works around 98 mph with a devastating slider.  Arizona moved Perry around quite a bit, but make no mistake his future is as a closer.

27. Minnesota Twins - Jemile Weeks, 2B Miami

Rickie's baby brother has pesky switch hitting leadoff hitter with a high average and few strikeouts written all over him.  In other words, he's a perfect Minnesota Twins type player.  Weeks will hit for around 300 and could easily hit 15-20 homers a season while provided 20-30 steals.  He is pretty solid with the glove offering above average defense at second base.

28. New York Yankees - Tanner Scheppers, RHP Fresno

A team with money to burn seems likely gamble on Scheppers, who has undergone a series of tests to determine the problem with his shoulder.  If healthy, Scheppers is a top 10 pick.  He flashes an upper 90's fastball with a Brad Lidge like slider that could rate as a 70 right now.  Scheppers is still relatively new to pitching, but has made tremendous strides in a very short time.  He is one of the few pitchers in this class with legit number 1 potential.  The Yankees never shy away from injury with talent, Brackman, Chamberlain.  If Scheppers shoulder just needs some minor work, this will be the pick.

29. Cleveland Indians - Conor Gillaspie, 3B Wichita State

In Gillaspie, the Indians select a gritty hitter who is going to fight off pitches and show the ability to stay at third base in the bigs.  He'll hit for a decent average and good power, though it might be a lot more doubles than homers.  His game could easily translate to the Indians style of play, plugging in quickly in the bottom third of the Indians' order.

30. Boston Red Sox - Reese Havens, C South Carolina

This seems to be the biggest rumor floating around the Red Sox who have liked Havens for quite some time.  They'll have to be patient with him as he is not a catcher, but will be making the switch back there to acomodate the Red Sox.  He shows good power and great gap tendencies.  He is a fluid athlete who should be able to make the quick transition behind the plate.

As we reach the one week plateau for the 2008 draft, the misinformation floating around is mind boggling. The future of some franchises, the job status of executives and managers and of course the hope for the fans all is impacted in a few hour window. This draft doesn't have the sexiness of many, but it has extreme depth, questions and a likely Hall of Famer in waiting.

1. Tampa Bay Rays - Tim Beckham, SS Griffin HS

There are three players mentioned here, Beckham, Alvarez and Posey.  Of the two, only Alvarez and Beckham have true 1.1 ability while Posey is just an organizational need who would sign for slot.  Beckham offers the complete package, 30/30 ability with plus defensive ability.  He should remind the Rays of their 2002 first round choice, BJ Upton. 

2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B Vanderbilt

Arguably the worst kept secret in the draft is the Pirates' willingness to spend for Alvarez.  In Alvarez, the Pirates get a cornerstone piece to continue to build around gearing for a 2010 run at the NL Central.  Alvarez has legit power and passable defense at third base and has handled the superstar role quite well for Team USA.  His collegiate numbers surpass Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman.  His ascension to the bigs should be quick provided the Pirates can sign him early.

3. Kansas City Royals - Justin Smoak, 1B University of South Carolina

Boy do the Royals need some offense, losing out in team homers to Dan Uggla in the month of May.  With Smoak on board and ready to contribute pretty early, the future definitely brightens up for the Royals faithful.  Smoak projects very favorably to Lance Berkman, a definite upgrade at first base.  With Gordon, Teahan, Moustakas and Smoak, the Royals offense should start to click in the next few years.

4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP San Diego

This seems to be the consensus pick, which troubles me.  The Angelos are absolutely crazy, though have started to come to their senses in the past year or so pillaging the Mariners for Erik Bedard and drafting Matt Wieters.  Matusz is a projectable lefty who should absolutely fly through the minors if signed early.  It's not out of the realm of possibility for Matusz to be in the opening day rotation in 2009.  This Cole Hamels/Roy Halladay clone should easily clutch the title of ace in Baltimore and be All-Star worthy in 2010.

5. San Francisco Giants - Buster Posey, C Florida State

With all the talk of Posey going number 1, this seems to be his most logical landing place and best fit.  Posey lacks the skill set of the players selected before him and only projects to an above average catcher.  Frankly, he is eerily reminiscent of Josh Bard, which is not something you want from a top 5 pick.  He is a fluid athlete behind the plate but is very raw.  In a system craving for legit hitting prospects not named Angel Villalona, Posey should be starting in Double A.

6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C Patriot HS

Another far from secret pick.  Skipworth has the highest ceiling of any high school catcher in recent memory, offering legit 20 homer power from behind the plate.  The comparisons to Joe Mauer are going to exist, albeit slightly unfairly, but not unjustifiably.  With any high school catcher, the question lingers about if he can remain behind the plate, but his bat will translate anywhere on the diamond.  Skipworth is pretty far from the majors, but the Marlins have demonstrated patience with their prospects and will give him all the time he needs to develop.

7. Cincinnati Reds - Christian Friedrich, LHP Eastern Kentucky

Walt Jockety run clubs have a propensity to play the draft very, very safely.  In Friedrich, the Reds get a top 15 overall talent who will sign for slot and rise through the minors very quickly.  He has an average fastball and relies heavily on his breaking pitches and plus command. 

8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS Georgia

Another piece for an already potent White Sox lineup, Beckham leads all D-1 players in homers.  His bat translates very well to the bigs, though he won't win any home run crowns with wooden bats.  He is reminiscent of a very young, very healthy Nomar Garciaparra. 

9. Washington Nationals - Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS

As an outfielder, selecting Hicks here is a bit of a reach.  However, as a pitcher, Hicks offers frontline stuff including an upper 90's fastball with an absolute hammer curve.  As an every day player, Hicks' preference, he is a textbook Bowden draft pick offering the chance at 5 plus tools and a natural ability to play centerfield. 

10. Houston Astros - Bret Lawrie, 3B Brookwood SS

No bat in this class has risen faster that Lawrie who is a pure athlete with an exceptionally projectable bat and frame.  Lawrie with a comparable skill set to Eric Hosmer, with a much cheaper price tag.  He has power to all fields and offers plus defense at third base. 

11. Texas Rangers - Aaron Crow, RHP Missouri

Rangers' owner Tom Hicks has always shown the willingness to spend big for Boras clients and right now Aaron Crow is arguably the best player available at a position of need.  Crow has some questions about his game but  has had incredible results on the mound.  Crow offers a plus fastball that will touch 98 mph.  He might fall in to the line of power reliever down the line, but does have front line stuff if his velocity increase and results improvement are all legit.

12. Oakland Athletics - Yonder Alonso, 1B Miami

This almost seems like too good of a fit.  Oakland has plenty of 1B/DH types, but Alonso is the best option possible.  He profiles as a 30 home run player with a 300/450 batting average, on base percentage guy.  Many think he'll be one of the fastest to reach the show from this draft class. 

13. St. Louis Cardinals - Joshua Fields, RP Georgia

St. Louis reaches a little bit but gets a big time pitcher at a big time hole.  Fields should be an extremely easy sign as a college senior.  It's not out of the realm of possibility for him to start closing for Double A within a week of him signing.  The Cardinals will likely push him very aggressively and he could be in the bullpen as early as late August.

14. Minneosta Twins - Anthony Hewitt, SS Salisbury HS

Hewitt is exceptionally raw, but ways and away the best athlete in the draft.  His skill set is comparable to Tim Beckham, but he lacks an overall fundamental approach to the game.  If Hewitt's skills catch up to his athleticism, he could be the steal of the draft.  With a new park on the way, homegrown talent is going to improve the club's outlook.

15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Eric Hosmer, 1B American Heritage HS

The Dodgers haven't been afraid to make a splash and take a big name player with large contract demands.  In Hosmer, the Dodgers get arguably the best pure bat in the draft and the best defender of the first basemen available.  Hosmer offers plus power with an incredible eye at the plate that really bodes well for him to fly through the Dodgers' system.  Hosmer compares very favorably to Padres' first basemen Adrian Gonzalez. 

16. Milwaukee Brewers - Tim Melville, RHP Holt HS

Entering the season, Melville was thought to be extremely special, but due to a myriad of problems, he has fallen.  The Brewers could luck out tremendously if Melville returns to form and having his velocity return to where it was over the summer.  Melville is going to command a bonus over slot, but the Brewers should pony up this season with increased revenue.  Melville offers a low 90's fastball and two solid breaking pitches.  His changeup is still very much a work in progress making a Jeremy Bonderman comparison fair.

17. Toronto Blue Jays - Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State

If Wallace lasts this long, a very unlikely scenario, but the way it has played in this draft, the Jays might be doing backflips.  Wallace might not be the dominating player in the bigs that he has been in college, but should be a very good player.  He has an outside chance to stay at third base, but a move back to first seems likely.  He is going to provide an incredible OPS and flash quite a bit of power.  He is remenscent of a young Kevin Youkilis.  

18. New York Mets - Jason Castro, C Stanford

The Mets have a pension for continually sticking to slot and going college reliever, but with Brian Schneider as the starter and no real depth in the system, the Mets go for a reliable college backstop who will be a plus defender and a league average hitter.  He commands a staff well and has been known for his leadership, something that should endear him to Mets fans.

19. Chicago Cubs - Jake Odorizzi, RHP Highland HS

The Cubs take the best player on the board adding another arm to their fairly deep system.  Odorizzi has absolutely shot up boards with a power fastball and hammer curve that really complement his easy delivery.  He has the highest ceiling of any high school arm in the class but is also very raw.  The Cubbies have never shied away from taking power arms that need some coaching.  If they are patient, this could be an extremely astute draft choice.

20. Seattle Mariners - Zach Collier, OF Chino Hills HS

After completely destroying their farm system for Erik Bedard, the Mariners draft a young and athletic outfielder.  Collier has plus speed and a chance to be a very good contact hitter with solid power.  He plays a natural centerfield but could have to move to a corner position if he grows in to his body.

21. Detroit Tigers - Casey Kelly, SS/RHP Sarasota HS

It can't really be this easy, can it?  Kelly has plenty of upside as both a shortstop and pitcher, but most agree that his future is on the mound.  He compares really well to Kyle Drabek in that both have power arms and a solid bad and could really go both ways.  As a pitcher, Kelly demonstrates the reason he is a top quarterback recruit.  He has solid velocity and developing breaking pitches.

22. New York Mets - Andrew Cashner, RP TCU

It really wouldn't be a draft without the Mets taking a college reliver.  Cashner throws hard and he throws stikes, making his stay in the minors likely a short one.  If the Mets continue to falter down the stretch, many of their spare parts will likely be dealt and Cashner should get a chance to take over setup duties from Aaron Heilman and eventually replace the aging Billy Wagner.

23. San Diego Padres - Lance Lynn, RHP Mississippi

Very few things in the draft are constant, but the Padres going safe and college almost always seems to be the case.  Lynn doesn't profile as anything more than a number three, but at worst he profiles as a number 5.  He is physically developed and what you see is what you get.  He isn't going to blow away hitters, but will get hitters out with an arsenal of pitches.  He steps it up when it counts.

24. Philadelphia Phillies - Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP Stephens County HS

It will be VERY interesting to see what the Phillies do with Martin. He is very new to pitching, but has excelled on the mound showing a big time fastball and an even better slurve.  He is pretty raw but has all of the skills to excel.  As a third basemen, he looks very similar to Troy Glaus with excellent power.  The Phillies have been looking for a third basemen since they dealt Scott Rolen but always seem to lack pitching.

25. Colorado Rockies - Shooter Hunt, RHP Tulane

Hunt's biggest question mark has been command and it has really come undone for him in the past few weeks.  He shows great velocity and secondary stuff, but his command is what separates him frmo being a number 2 starter and a fringe starter/middle reliever.  If the Rockies are patient with him and don't push him, they should get a steal here.  However, the chance that he makes it and miss it are just about even.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Ryan Perry, RHP Arizona

After the D-backs traded quite a bit of their farm system for Haren and traded away Jose Valverde, the Diamondbacks have had some bullpen issues.  Brandon Lyon has been incredibly good as the closer, but Tony Pena has been markedly average in a set up roll.  Perry shows a fastball that works around 98 mph with a devastating slider.  Arizona moved Perry around quite a bit, but make no mistake his future is as a closer.

27. Minnesota Twins - Jemile Weeks, 2B Miami

Rickie's baby brother has pesky switch hitting leadoff hitter with a high average and few strikeouts written all over him.  In other words, he's a perfect Minnesota Twins type player.  Weeks will hit for around 300 and could easily hit 15-20 homers a season while provided 20-30 steals.  He is pretty solid with the glove offering above average defense at second base. 

28. New York Yankees - Gerrit Cole, RHP Orange Lutheran HS

There is no question that Cole has the best arm in this draft.  There is also no question that Cole is just as likely to throw another 101 MPH heater for the strikeout as he is to throw 100 MPH at someone's head, spit on them and then throw his glove at his fallen body.  Cole's delivery is very reminscent of Jake Peavy's with a lot more torque on the elbow, making him a huge injury concern.  His price tag could be close to Rick Porcello's in 2007, and Cole's polish is nowhere near that of Porcello.  Cole is a candidate to stay in the minors for quite some time to work on polish and maturity.  However, the Yankees seem to be enamored with the big heater no matter what, see Andrew Brackman.

29. Cleveland Indians - Conor Gillaspie, 3B Wichita State

In Gillaspie, the Indians select a gritty hitter who is going to fight off pitches and show the ability to stay at third base in the bigs.  He'll hit for a decent average and good power, though it might be a lot more doubles than homers.  His game could easily translate to the Indians style of play, plugging in quickly in the bottom third of the Indians' order. 

30. Boston Red Sox - Reese Havens, C South Carolina

This seems to be the biggest rumor floating around the Red Sox who have liked Havens for quite some time.  They'll have to be patient with him as he is not a catcher, but will be making the switch back there to acomodate the Red Sox.  He shows good power and great gap tendencies.  He is a fluid athlete who should be able to make the quick transition behind the plate.

Supplemental Round

31. Minnesota Twins - Ike Davis, OF Arizona State

Davis has battled a rib injury that has affected his draft status, but he still boasts some of the best skill set around.  Where to play him will be an issue, but he will be carried by his plus bat.  His power should come soon and it might be a gap power, but he's definitely got the skills to exceed at the highest levels.

32. Milwaukee Brewers - Brett DeVall, LHP Niceville HS

The Brewers definitely wanted to increase the depth in their pitching in their farm system and with Melville and DeVall, they certainly achieve their goal.  DeVall does not have dominant stuff but has incredible command of three pitches.  He works in the mid to upper 80's and has a great changeup to go along with it.  He possesses a very comparable skill set between Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer.  Of all the high school pitchers, he could be ready first.

33. New York Mets - Tyson Ross, RHP Cal

Ross is an enigma, but could prove to be an extremely astute pick for the Mets.  He has a plus-plus slider but pitches off of it too much, rather than using it as a putaway pitch.  As the season moved forward, he started working off his fastball more and using the slider as a strikeout pitch.  If the Mets continue to coach him, he could be one of the steals of the draft.

34. Philadelphia Phillies - Isaac Galloway, OF Los Osos HS

It's no secret that the Phillies love their athletes and their tools.  From a pure tools standpoint, Galloway is right around the top of the boards.  However, he is extremely raw and lacks pitch recognition.  If he puts it all together, he is going to hit for power and provide absolutely filthy defense.  He is at least a 5 year project, something Phillies brass and fans must consider.

35. Milwaukee Brewers - Dennis Raben, OF Miami

After adding to a thinning rotation, the Brewers go BPA and selected a very talented outfielder from Miami.  Raben is going to offer a plus bat and above average defense, something to definitely offset the complete lack of mobility from 2007 first round pick Matt Laporta.  As he fills out, his power should only grow.  Along with Laporta, the Brewers should have a very potent all or nothing lineup from the corners.

36. Kansas City Royals - James Darnell, RF South Carolina

The Royals opt to keep part of the South Carolina infield together, though a move to right field seems inevitable for Darnell.  Darnell looks very much like current Royal Mark Teahan with Teahan's early power potential.  He might not break 280, but providing significant power will definitely help offset that.  As a defender, Darnell offers a plus arm that should help to cut down quite a few runs. 

37. San Francisco Giants - David Cooper, 1B Cal

The Giants definitely attempt to upgrade an aging offense and Posey and Cooper should definitely help do just that.  In Cooper, Sabean must make a very difficult decision on where to play him as uber prospect Angel Villalona currently is the Giants' first base prospect of the future and Cooper would be below average in left field, especially at home.  From the plate though, Cooper offers a very smooth and very powerful swing generating quite a bit of bat speed very quickly. 

38. Houston Astros - Mike Montgomery, LHP Hart HS

As a lefty who throws 95 mph and is projectable with a 6'5" frame, Montgomery does offer quite a few question marks though with his very slow breaking ball.  He shows great feel for the changeup though, and with a solid fastball, his change becomes much more effective.  There is reason to believe that he is going to be able to sit in the mid 90's while he fills in to his frame.  His delivery is smooth and repeatable and in his biggest games he was the best.

39. St. Louis Cardinals - Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B Pitt JC

Chisenhall's off-field incidents have been well chronicled and his bat is finally starting to put some of those issues to rest.  He has a very free and easy swing from the left side of the plate that profiles to eventually 20-30 homers.  His eventual home is bound to be third base, however he could move to second where he'd look a lot like Chase Utley.  He is a risk but a definite payoff.

40. Atlanta Braves - Xavier Avery, OF Cedar Grove HS

The Braves seem to prefer to go local and Avery is definitely deserving of this pick.  He has speed to burn and could easily steal 80 bases a season if he's on base enough.  His bat is still a little bit raw, but he has shown an extreme dedication to improving.  His power will be slow to develop, but his speed will definitely allow for quite a few triples.  Defensively, he's got amazing range and zone ability, but his arm is only average making centerfield his definite home.

41. Chicago Cubs - Tanner Scheppers, RHP Fresno

A team with money to burn seems likely gamble on Scheppers, who has undergone a series of tests to determine the problem with his shoulder.  If healthy, Scheppers is a top 10 pick.  He flashes an upper 90's fastball with a Brad Lidge like slider that could rate as a 70 right now.  Scheppers is still relatively new to pitching, but has made tremendous strides in a very short time.  He is one of the few pitchers in this class with legit number 1 potential.

42. San Diego Padres - Eric Thames, LF Pepperdine

It's no secret that the Padres' offense and farm system are really, really bad.  Thames has grown considerably over the past two seasons and continues to fill his frame and provide significant upside from a college hitter who understands the strike zone, hits the opposite way and feasts on poor pitching.  His power has been slow to develop, but definitely flashes 20-30 homer potential.  In the run suppressing Petco Park, that number could be deflated.

43. Arizona Diamondbacks - Anthony Gose, LHP Bellflower HS

Only injuries kept Gose from rising in to the top 10.  As a two way player, few offer anything as exciting as Gose.  From the mound, his final home, he flashes an upper 90's fastball with movement and a very hard breaking ball.  However, he is very raw and his command is very erratic.  With such a deep system, Arizona can afford to be very patient with him and let him try to become a consistent pitcher, something they hope comes with a full time move to the mound.

44. New York Yankees - Alex Meyer, RHP Greensburg HS

Meyer is arguably the most unsignable player in the draft being represented by Boras and a strong commitment to Kentucky.  However, it might be tough to turn down the Yankees and their very large checkbook.  It's been a few years since the Bombers hoisted a World Series crown and the Steinbrenners are willing to do what it takes.  On the mound, Myer is a very intimidating 6'7" with a strong fastball, slider, changeup combination and very good command for a high schooler.  He profiles as a strong 2 or 3 and a dominant workhorse.

45. Boston Red Sox - Dan Schelereth, LHP Arizona

The Red Sox are clearly the model franchise in the bigs right now.  Their bullpen could definitely use a dominant lefty and the best player on the board right now.  Schlereth comes with an upper 90's fastball and extremely improved command.  He profiles as a strong setup man or closer in the bigs with the ability to have a very high strikeout rate.

46. San Diego Padres - Chris Carpenter, RHP Kent State

Finally the Padres take a risk.  If completely healthy and over his arm worries, Carpenter can be as good as the former Cy Young winner bearing the same name.  He has a true power arsenal with a mid 90's fastball, two nasty breaking pitches and a solid changeup.  The only question is injuries, including TJ and a dead arm.  If the Padres can nurse him along, they are going to definitely reap the benefits. 

When building a baseball team, the first request is an ace...a true number one, a stopper. However, only a few of these ultra rare commodities exist in today's game. In fact, one counts fewer than two dozen, leaving every team scrambling. These are the players teams count on to stop a losing streak, the type with no hit stuff and the uncanny ability to step up in a big game. In fact, teams are willing to blow the bank on established premium talent, see Johan Santana's seven year, $151 million contract, or the $7 million given to high school pitcher Rick Porcello.

Entering the 2004 season, Nick Adenhart was as revered as any pitching prospect since Josh Beckett. He had a projectable 6'3? frame with incredible movement on his three plus to plus-plus pitches, he had the bulldog demeanor on the mound and a Macho Man Randy Savagey bravado that indicated sure stardom. Adenhart was a lock top 5 pick with millions in guaranteed money sure to be coming his way; he, Homer Bailey and Mark Rogers were the creme de la creme of the high school pitching class, which also included names like Phil Hughes, Yovani Gallardo, David Price and Wade Davis.

Unfortunately, Adenhart would blow out his elbow and require Tommy John surgery. While most teams assumed that Adenhart would honor his commitment to UNC, but Angels brass opted to take a gamble on being able to sign Adenhart away and have him rehab with the big league club; after all, MLB resources are significantly more advanced than that of their college counterparts. For a paltry $710,000, the Angels signed Adenhart after drafting him in the fourteenth round. His rehab went smoothly and Adenhart was elected to the 2006 Futures game, alongside fellow draftees Phil Hughes, Eric Hurley, Homer Bailey and Gio Gonzalez. Along with the Futures Game invite, Adenhart was a league All-Star in both 2006 and 2007.

Entering the 2008 season, Adenhart had a chance to win the 5th starters job directly out of spring training, and easily should have. His numbers were more than impressive, being skewed by a schalacking at the hands of the now first place Arizona Diamondbacks. Ultimately, the job went to Dustin Moseley who proceeded to get absolutely hammered. As this writer will more than willingly admit, my opinion on the matter was heavily biased. However, I spoke with Baseball America's premier prospect expect Jim Callis and he more than agreed with me saying, "I think they're just being cautious with a young pitcher, but I'm with you. I'd have Adenhart in there over Moseley and wouldn't have to think much about making that move."

Blessed with a mid 90's fastball with incredible movement, a knee buckling power curveball and a changeup that dances and breaks, Adenhart was showing teams that he was back and better than ever. The stardom was hardly a surprise to Adenhart who according to him, was voted most likely to succeed in high school. Succeed he has, and then some. Nearly four years after being drafted, the Angels couldn't hold Adenhart down any longer; after all, this was a kid with mediocre peripherals but sporting a .87 ERA on the best team in Triple A. On May 1st, Adenhart made his big league debut facing the Oakland Athletics at home. His two starts have not been exactly what the 21 year old envisioned, but there have been plenty of good and plenty of bad parts of his starts. On one hand, he showed the dominant ability he possesses, but on the other hand, he looked exactly like the youngest starting pitcher in the bigs, which he is. In his four years in the minors, Adenhart never once pitched on short rest, something he did in his first MLB start. Coupling the fatigue, nerves and starting at home, anything other than mediocrity is presumptuous. Unfortunately, we are jaded by Johnny Cueto's historic debut in 2008, and expect all can't miss prospects to come in and truly dominate. Another super prospect with some injury questions walked quite a few batters in his first MLB start; so far the Phillies have been more than happy with Cole Hamels' progress and dominance.

It's easy to see why scouts fell in love with the pitcher with the golden arm looking at some of his pitches. It might be time for Nick to dust off the yearbook and revisit that most likely to succeed caption and know that he's more than on the path to success.

Below is every batter he has faced thus far in the majors, broken down by start, with the good and the bad.

5/1 - Oakland Athletics

Inning One:

An absolutely perfect series of pitches, with maintained velocity, movement and break. Adenhart went right after him and got a quick out.

Obviously control is an issue here as he tries to work away from Ellis' power which is inside for him. Ellis swings at a borderline pitch and Adenhart gets lucky on this one. Again, solid velocity with late movement.

The curveball was an absolutely dominant pitch, breaking over a foot and set up the fastball perfectly do a dead pull hitter.

Inning Two:

Absolutely perfectly set up to tie up the future Hall of Famer

Average series of events. Curveball bounced, which meant Brown just had to look fastball and got it and hit it.

A terrible series to the Athletics' best hitter. This is on the Angels' as much as it is Adenhart; Cust is a straight fastball hitter and to throw four straight is just ridiculous.

This is where it starts to get pretty ugly. Adenhart's command sort of just disappears and pitch 2 is clearly a strike. Unfortunately, it'd be a recurring theme to not get the calls. The movement on the pitches was solid, just location spotty.

Another poor series thrown by Adenhart, who has shown problems working from the stretch before.

Even though it led to a walk, I really like this series of pitches. It was done to try to get a double play, but his command was just off.

Another solid series of pitches done to set up the hitter, but the hitter won the battle.

Best series of the entire game. He mixed in three pitches and had great location.

A little bit too middle of the plate, but it got an out. Hard to completely hate it.

5/5 vs. Royals.

Inning One:

Hard to argue with the results, but a secondary pitch should have been thrown when he started fouling off.

Another solid series. Fastball had solid velocity with movement. Curveball is knee buckling caliber. It'd have been nice had they gone high with a pitch to change his eye level.

Pitch one is clearly a strike, and fortunately it didn't affect him. Solid series of pitches.

Inning Two:

Great location to an aggressive young hitter and it pays off.

Solid working the edge with a nice fastball/changeup combo

Poor command leads to another walk. Average moment with solid velocity.

Average, he should have gone high. To a fastball hitter, to throw 3 straight is unacceptable.

Good pitch in a good location, it just got hit.

Solid series, he just missed his spots. Pitch three is a strike, and pitch 4 is borderline.

Perfect set up to take advantage of a very aggressive hitter.

Inning Three:

Good pitch, stupid swing.

Absolutely perfect and dominating.

Another solid series, the changeup was just hit. It might be different if he was getting the call. Pitch one is on the corner.

Perfect series, the fastball was just hit hard. The pitch could have had more movement, but it was just hit.

The feel for the cuveball really went away, but the changeup was incredibly solid, offering the perfect 10 mph discrepancy. Impatient swing by Teahan.

Inning Four:

Why on earth was every pitch on the outside? Very, very poor. Again, pitch one is a strike, but Adenhart does not get the call.

Solid, yet they should be down attempting to get the double play.

Another very poor showing in attempting to jam Callaspo. The hitter should just be looking inside and for a pitch to drive. Again, pitch one is a strike and he does not get the call.

Average, but horrible swings by Gathright.

Solid, but not mixing up his location. Fortunately the fastball was converted into an out.

Inning Five:

Solid again, but velocity is starting to tail down.

Absolutely terrible. Maintained velocity but command is really off to an extremely dangerous hitter.

Easily the worst of the game, which would prove to be his last.

Overall, the command was spotty, but the umps didn't do him any favors. It's easy to see why he will be absolutely dominating once he is comfortable.

With the draft less than a month away, there will undoubtedly be misinformation leaked. Team A will say that the player they want is timed slowly, and Team B will say that he was even faster to push the player they want down in the draft. However, one thing remains steadfast--the position of Atlanta shortstop Tim Beckhamfirmly atop every team's draft board in terms of most talented player. Few players in recent memory posses the skills and intangibles as does Beckham.

In an age with extreme media coverage, off-field conduct clauses in contracts and character becoming as important as ability, finding a player with both is extremely rare. Superstardom often leads to complacency and arrogance, but for Tim Beckham superstardom just leads to his future. At a recent event, Beckham was seen joking around with his teammates, helping the grounds crew, and demonstrating that unmistakable Southern twang that is sure to be a fit in whatever city chooses to make him a millionaire. "Tim does not set himself apart, he does what his teammates do," said his father, Jimmy Beckham. Beckham has been on the national scene since a freshman and absolutely mashing on the touring circuit. However, his success and future growth potential have not hampered his personality in the least. In fact, the attention has forced Beckham to work harder, with many scouts gravitating towards his never give up, always work harder attitude. His approach to the game of baseball is contagious and can only make a team better.

On the field, Beckham is reminiscent of Barry Larkin, Brandon Phillips and BJ Upton combined. Of the past ultra toolsy high school players selected in the top 5, Beckham has the best chance of remaining at shortstop with a fluid movement and powerful arm. He is blessed with excellent speed that translates to the basepaths as well. His hands are extremely smooth and he's able to break in on the ball with rapid movement, while bringing the ball from his glove to his throwing hand faster than any shortstop in recent memory.

At the plate, Beckham profiles as a number two hitter with excellent contact skills and extra base power. Beckham easily could become a perennial 30/30 threat. However, Beckham's best asset at the plate is his uncanny patience, unafraid to take a walk and allow the player behind him to drive him in. As a junior, Beckham hit .512 with 21 extra base hits, 39 RBIs and 20 stolen bases. While his numbers might not match BJ Upton's junior numbers, his closest comparable, who hit .647, 13 homeruns, 51 RBI and 47 stolen bases, he certainly held his own. Beckham plays in a tougher league being closer to the south than Upton, who played in Virginia.

At 6'2", 191 pounds, Beckham has the natural size and quickness to handle the every day grind up playing shortstop at the highest level. However, if the team feels a move to centerfield is necessary, Beckham certainly is athletic enough to handle the move. In fact, he could even flourish in the outfield where his arm and speed can be utilized even more.

Unfortunately, as with many prospects, Beckham's game is not without flaws. He often does not rotate his hands on his swing, does not follow through with the bat as well as he should and needs some fundamental refinement. However, with some minor coaching, any team who selects Beckham in the coming draft will reap the rewards sooner rather than later.