No intros needed, you know the drill

Draft Day Mock

1. Tampa Bay Rays - Tim Beckham, SS Griffin HS

There are three players mentioned here, Beckham, Alvarez and Posey.  Of the two, only Alvarez and Beckham have true 1.1 ability while Posey is just an organizational need who would sign for slot.  Beckham offers the complete package, 30/30 ability with plus defensive ability.  He should remind the Rays of their 2002 first round choice, BJ Upton.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B Vanderbilt

Arguably the worst kept secret in the draft is the Pirates' willingness to spend for Alvarez.  In Alvarez, the Pirates get a cornerstone piece to continue to build around gearing for a 2010 run at the NL Central.  Alvarez has legit power and passable defense at third base and has handled the superstar role quite well for Team USA.  His collegiate numbers surpass Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman.  His ascension to the bigs should be quick provided the Pirates can sign him early.

3. Kansas City Royals - Eric Hosmer, 1B Heritage HS

Boy do the Royals need some offense, losing out in team homers to Dan Uggla in the month of May.  Hosmer is the best pure bat in the draft, and provides great defense as well.  The Royals are pretty locked in on Hosmer and have negotiated well with Boras in the past.  Hosmer and Moustakas give the Royals' farm system a major boost and bode well for them building from within much like the Rays.

4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP San Diego

This seems to be the consensus pick, which troubles me.  The Angelos are absolutely crazy, though have started to come to their senses in the past year or so pillaging the Mariners for Erik Bedard and drafting Matt Wieters.  Matusz is a projectable lefty who should absolutely fly through the minors if signed early.  It's not out of the realm of possibility for Matusz to be in the opening day rotation in 2009.  This Cole Hamels/Roy Halladay clone should easily clutch the title of ace in Baltimore and be All-Star worthy in 2010.

5. San Francisco Giants - Buster Posey, C Florida State

With all the talk of Posey going number 1, this seems to be his most logical landing place and best fit.  Posey lacks the skill set of the players selected before him and only projects to an above average catcher.  Frankly, he is eerily reminiscent of Josh Bard, which is not something you want from a top 5 pick.  He is a fluid athlete behind the plate but is very raw.  In a system craving for legit hitting prospects not named Angel Villalona, Posey should be starting in Double A.

6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C Patriot HS

Another far from secret pick.  Skipworth has the highest ceiling of any high school catcher in recent memory, offering legit 20 homer power from behind the plate.  The comparisons to Joe Mauer are going to exist, albeit slightly unfairly, but not unjustifiably.  With any high school catcher, the question lingers about if he can remain behind the plate, but his bat will translate anywhere on the diamond.  Skipworth is pretty far from the majors, but the Marlins have demonstrated patience with their prospects and will give him all the time he needs to develop.

7. Cincinnati Reds - Gordon Beckham, SS Georgia

The Reds need some power up the middle and Beckahm is the best player on the board here.  Beckham's bat translates well at a premium position and he has the ability to hit 30+ homers.  His defense is passable at short, but make no mistake, he's a hitter.  He's very comparable to a young Nomar.

8. Chicago White Sox - Justin Smoak, 1B South Carolina

The White Sox offense has been struggling all season and Jim Thome is on his last legs and Paul Konerko has started to show signs of decline.  Smoak has legit 40 homer power and plays a passable defense at first, though he might profile better as a DH if he adjusts.  He won't hit for a high average and looks like a 3 outcome hitter, but the power is certainly there.

9. Washington Nationals - Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS

As an outfielder, selecting Hicks here is a bit of a reach.  However, as a pitcher, Hicks offers frontline stuff including an upper 90's fastball with an absolute hammer curve.  As an every day player, Hicks' preference, he is a textbook Bowden draft pick offering the chance at 5 plus tools and a natural ability to play centerfield.

10. Houston Astros - Bret Lawrie, 3B Brookwood SS

No bat in this class has risen faster that Lawrie who is a pure athlete with an exceptionally projectable bat and frame.  Lawrie with a comparable skill set to Eric Hosmer, with a much cheaper price tag.  He has power to all fields and offers plus defense at third base.

11. Texas Rangers - Aaron Crow, RHP Missouri

Rangers' owner Tom Hicks has always shown the willingness to spend big for Boras clients and right now Aaron Crow is arguably the best player available at a position of need.  Crow has some questions about his game but  has had incredible results on the mound.  Crow offers a plus fastball that will touch 98 mph.  He might fall in to the line of power reliever down the line, but does have front line stuff if his velocity increase and results improvement are all legit.

12. Oakland Athletics - Yonder Alonso, 1B Miami

This almost seems like too good of a fit.  Oakland has plenty of 1B/DH types, but Alonso is the best option possible.  He profiles as a 30 home run player with a 300/450 batting average, on base percentage guy.  Many think he'll be one of the fastest to reach the show from this draft class.

13. St. Louis Cardinals - Joshua Fields, RP Georgia

St. Louis reaches a little bit but gets a big time pitcher at a big time hole.  Fields should be an extremely easy sign as a college senior.  It's not out of the realm of possibility for him to start closing for Double A within a week of him signing.  The Cardinals will likely push him very aggressively and he could be in the bullpen as early as late August.

14. Minneosta Twins - Anthony Hewitt, SS Salisbury HS

Hewitt is exceptionally raw, but ways and away the best athlete in the draft.  His skill set is comparable to Tim Beckham, but he lacks an overall fundamental approach to the game.  If Hewitt's skills catch up to his athleticism, he could be the steal of the draft.  With a new park on the way, homegrown talent is going to improve the club's outlook.

15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Christian Friedrich, LHP Eastern Kentucky

Friedrich breaks the mold of the Dodgers going prep arm, but he's by far the best player available.  His stuff isn't dominant, but it's definitely workable.  He looks a lot like a young Barry Zito with a sweeping breaking ball.  Of all the pitchers in this draft, Freidrich has the chance to reach the show first.

16. Milwaukee Brewers - Tim Melville, RHP Holt HS

Entering the season, Melville was thought to be extremely special, but due to a myriad of problems, he has fallen.  The Brewers could luck out tremendously if Melville returns to form and having his velocity return to where it was over the summer.  Melville is going to command a bonus over slot, but the Brewers should pony up this season with increased revenue.  Melville offers a low 90's fastball and two solid breaking pitches.  His changeup is still very much a work in progress making a Jeremy Bonderman comparison fair.

17. Toronto Blue Jays - Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State

If Wallace lasts this long, a very unlikely scenario, but the way it has played in this draft, the Jays might be doing backflips.  Wallace might not be the dominating player in the bigs that he has been in college, but should be a very good player.  He has an outside chance to stay at third base, but a move back to first seems likely.  He is going to provide an incredible OPS and flash quite a bit of power.  He is remenscent of a young Kevin Youkilis.  

18. New York Mets - Jason Castro, C Stanford

The Mets have a pension for continually sticking to slot and going college reliever, but with Brian Schneider as the starter and no real depth in the system, the Mets go for a reliable college backstop who will be a plus defender and a league average hitter.  He commands a staff well and has been known for his leadership, something that should endear him to Mets fans.

19. Chicago Cubs - Jake Odorizzi, RHP Highland HS

The Cubs take the best player on the board adding another arm to their fairly deep system.  Odorizzi has absolutely shot up boards with a power fastball and hammer curve that really complement his easy delivery.  He has the highest ceiling of any high school arm in the class but is also very raw.  The Cubbies have never shied away from taking power arms that need some coaching.  If they are patient, this could be an extremely astute draft choice.

20. Seattle Mariners - Zach Collier, OF Chino Hills HS

After completely destroying their farm system for Erik Bedard, the Mariners draft a young and athletic outfielder.  Collier has plus speed and a chance to be a very good contact hitter with solid power.  He plays a natural centerfield but could have to move to a corner position if he grows in to his body.

21. Detroit Tigers - Gerrit Cole, RHP Orange Lutheran

There is no question that Cole has the best arm in this draft.  There is also no question that Cole is just as likely to throw another 101 MPH heater for the strikeout as he is to throw 100 MPH at someone's head, spit on them and then throw his glove at his fallen body.  Cole's delivery is very reminscent of Jake Peavy's with a lot more torque on the elbow, making him a huge injury concern.  His price tag could be close to Rick Porcello's in 2007, and Cole's polish is nowhere near that of Porcello.  Cole is a candidate to stay in the minors for quite some time to work on polish and maturity.  The Tigers tend to identify power players and pay them whatever it takes.  If Cole can mature and stay healthy, he and Porcello will be the best 1/2 punch in baseball.


22. New York Mets - Andrew Cashner, RP TCU

It really wouldn't be a draft without the Mets taking a college reliver.  Cashner throws hard and he throws stikes, making his stay in the minors likely a short one.  If the Mets continue to falter down the stretch, many of their spare parts will likely be dealt and Cashner should get a chance to take over setup duties from Aaron Heilman and eventually replace the aging Billy Wagner.

23. San Diego Padres - Lance Lynn, RHP Mississippi

Very few things in the draft are constant, but the Padres going safe and college almost always seems to be the case.  Lynn doesn't profile as anything more than a number three, but at worst he profiles as a number 5.  He is physically developed and what you see is what you get.  He isn't going to blow away hitters, but will get hitters out with an arsenal of pitches.  He steps it up when it counts.

24. Philadelphia Phillies - Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP Stephens County HS

It will be VERY interesting to see what the Phillies do with Martin. He is very new to pitching, but has excelled on the mound showing a big time fastball and an even better slurve.  He is pretty raw but has all of the skills to excel.  As a third basemen, he looks very similar to Troy Glaus with excellent power.  The Phillies have been looking for a third basemen since they dealt Scott Rolen but always seem to lack pitching.

25. Colorado Rockies - Shooter Hunt, RHP Tulane

Hunt's biggest question mark has been command and it has really come undone for him in the past few weeks.  He shows great velocity and secondary stuff, but his command is what separates him frmo being a number 2 starter and a fringe starter/middle reliever.  If the Rockies are patient with him and don't push him, they should get a steal here.  However, the chance that he makes it and miss it are just about even.

26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Ryan Perry, RHP Arizona

After the D-backs traded quite a bit of their farm system for Haren and traded away Jose Valverde, the Diamondbacks have had some bullpen issues.  Brandon Lyon has been incredibly good as the closer, but Tony Pena has been markedly average in a set up roll.  Perry shows a fastball that works around 98 mph with a devastating slider.  Arizona moved Perry around quite a bit, but make no mistake his future is as a closer.

27. Minnesota Twins - Jemile Weeks, 2B Miami

Rickie's baby brother has pesky switch hitting leadoff hitter with a high average and few strikeouts written all over him.  In other words, he's a perfect Minnesota Twins type player.  Weeks will hit for around 300 and could easily hit 15-20 homers a season while provided 20-30 steals.  He is pretty solid with the glove offering above average defense at second base.

28. New York Yankees - Tanner Scheppers, RHP Fresno

A team with money to burn seems likely gamble on Scheppers, who has undergone a series of tests to determine the problem with his shoulder.  If healthy, Scheppers is a top 10 pick.  He flashes an upper 90's fastball with a Brad Lidge like slider that could rate as a 70 right now.  Scheppers is still relatively new to pitching, but has made tremendous strides in a very short time.  He is one of the few pitchers in this class with legit number 1 potential.  The Yankees never shy away from injury with talent, Brackman, Chamberlain.  If Scheppers shoulder just needs some minor work, this will be the pick.

29. Cleveland Indians - Conor Gillaspie, 3B Wichita State

In Gillaspie, the Indians select a gritty hitter who is going to fight off pitches and show the ability to stay at third base in the bigs.  He'll hit for a decent average and good power, though it might be a lot more doubles than homers.  His game could easily translate to the Indians style of play, plugging in quickly in the bottom third of the Indians' order.

30. Boston Red Sox - Reese Havens, C South Carolina

This seems to be the biggest rumor floating around the Red Sox who have liked Havens for quite some time.  They'll have to be patient with him as he is not a catcher, but will be making the switch back there to acomodate the Red Sox.  He shows good power and great gap tendencies.  He is a fluid athlete who should be able to make the quick transition behind the plate.