As we reach the one week plateau for the 2008 draft, the misinformation
floating around is mind boggling. The future of some franchises, the
job status of executives and managers and of course the hope for the
fans all is impacted in a few hour window. This draft doesn't have the
sexiness of many, but it has extreme depth, questions and a likely Hall
of Famer in waiting.
1. Tampa Bay Rays - Tim Beckham, SS Griffin HS
There
are three players mentioned here, Beckham, Alvarez and Posey. Of the
two, only Alvarez and Beckham have true 1.1 ability while Posey is just
an organizational need who would sign for slot. Beckham offers the
complete package, 30/30 ability with plus defensive ability. He should
remind the Rays of their 2002 first round choice, BJ Upton.
2. Pittsburgh Pirates - Pedro Alvarez, 3B Vanderbilt
Arguably
the worst kept secret in the draft is the Pirates' willingness to spend
for Alvarez. In Alvarez, the Pirates get a cornerstone piece to
continue to build around gearing for a 2010 run at the NL Central.
Alvarez has legit power and passable defense at third base and has
handled the superstar role quite well for Team USA. His collegiate
numbers surpass Alex Gordon, Ryan Braun, Evan Longoria and Ryan
Zimmerman. His ascension to the bigs should be quick provided the
Pirates can sign him early.
3. Kansas City Royals - Justin Smoak, 1B University of South Carolina
Boy
do the Royals need some offense, losing out in team homers to Dan Uggla
in the month of May. With Smoak on board and ready to contribute
pretty early, the future definitely brightens up for the Royals
faithful. Smoak projects very favorably to Lance Berkman,
a definite upgrade at first base. With Gordon, Teahan, Moustakas and
Smoak, the Royals offense should start to click in the next few years.
4. Baltimore Orioles - Brian Matusz, LHP San Diego
This
seems to be the consensus pick, which troubles me. The Angelos are
absolutely crazy, though have started to come to their senses in the
past year or so pillaging the Mariners for Erik Bedard
and drafting Matt Wieters. Matusz is a projectable lefty who should
absolutely fly through the minors if signed early. It's not out of the
realm of possibility for Matusz to be in the opening day rotation in
2009. This Cole Hamels/Roy Halladay clone should easily clutch the
title of ace in Baltimore and be All-Star worthy in 2010.
5. San Francisco Giants - Buster Posey, C Florida State
With all the talk of Posey going number 1, this seems to be his most
logical landing place and best fit. Posey lacks the skill set of the
players selected before him and only projects to an above average
catcher. Frankly, he is eerily reminiscent of Josh Bard,
which is not something you want from a top 5 pick. He is a fluid
athlete behind the plate but is very raw. In a system craving for
legit hitting prospects not named Angel Villalona, Posey should be
starting in Double A.
6. Florida Marlins - Kyle Skipworth, C Patriot HS
Another far from secret pick. Skipworth has the highest ceiling of any
high school catcher in recent memory, offering legit 20 homer power
from behind the plate. The comparisons to Joe Mauer
are going to exist, albeit slightly unfairly, but not unjustifiably.
With any high school catcher, the question lingers about if he can
remain behind the plate, but his bat will translate anywhere on the
diamond. Skipworth is pretty far from the majors, but the Marlins have
demonstrated patience with their prospects and will give him all the
time he needs to develop.
7. Cincinnati Reds - Christian Friedrich, LHP Eastern Kentucky
Walt
Jockety run clubs have a propensity to play the draft very, very
safely. In Friedrich, the Reds get a top 15 overall talent who will
sign for slot and rise through the minors very quickly. He has an
average fastball and relies heavily on his breaking pitches and plus
command.
8. Chicago White Sox - Gordon Beckham, SS Georgia
Another piece for an already potent White Sox lineup, Beckham leads all
D-1 players in homers. His bat translates very well to the bigs,
though he won't win any home run crowns with wooden bats. He is
reminiscent of a very young, very healthy Nomar Garciaparra.
9. Washington Nationals - Aaron Hicks, OF/RHP, Woodrow Wilson HS
As
an outfielder, selecting Hicks here is a bit of a reach. However, as a
pitcher, Hicks offers frontline stuff including an upper 90's fastball
with an absolute hammer curve. As an every day player, Hicks'
preference, he is a textbook Bowden draft pick offering the chance at 5
plus tools and a natural ability to play centerfield.
10. Houston Astros - Bret Lawrie, 3B Brookwood SS
No
bat in this class has risen faster that Lawrie who is a pure athlete
with an exceptionally projectable bat and frame. Lawrie with a
comparable skill set to Eric Hosmer, with a much cheaper price tag. He
has power to all fields and offers plus defense at third base.
11. Texas Rangers - Aaron Crow, RHP Missouri
Rangers'
owner Tom Hicks has always shown the willingness to spend big for Boras
clients and right now Aaron Crow is arguably the best player available
at a position of need. Crow has some questions about his game but has
had incredible results on the mound. Crow offers a plus fastball that
will touch 98 mph. He might fall in to the line of power reliever down
the line, but does have front line stuff if his velocity increase and
results improvement are all legit.
12. Oakland Athletics - Yonder Alonso,
1B Miami
This
almost seems like too good of a fit. Oakland has plenty of 1B/DH
types, but Alonso is the best option possible. He profiles as a 30
home run player with a 300/450 batting average, on base percentage
guy. Many think he'll be one of the fastest to reach the show from
this draft class.
13. St. Louis Cardinals - Joshua Fields, RP Georgia
St.
Louis reaches a little bit but gets a big time pitcher at a big time
hole. Fields should be an extremely easy sign as a college senior.
It's not out of the realm of possibility for him to start closing for
Double A within a week of him signing. The Cardinals will likely push
him very aggressively and he could be in the bullpen as early as late
August.
14. Minneosta Twins - Anthony Hewitt, SS Salisbury HS
Hewitt is exceptionally raw, but ways and away the best athlete in the
draft. His skill set is comparable to Tim Beckham, but he lacks an
overall fundamental approach to the game. If Hewitt's skills catch up
to his athleticism, he could be the steal of the draft. With a new
park on the way, homegrown talent is going to improve the club's
outlook.
15. Los Angeles Dodgers - Eric Hosmer, 1B American Heritage HS
The Dodgers
haven't been afraid to make a splash and take a big name player with
large contract demands. In Hosmer, the Dodgers get arguably the best
pure bat in the draft and the best defender of the first basemen
available. Hosmer offers plus power with an incredible eye at the
plate that really bodes well for him to fly through the Dodgers'
system. Hosmer compares very favorably to Padres' first basemen Adrian
Gonzalez.
16. Milwaukee Brewers - Tim Melville, RHP Holt HS
Entering
the season, Melville was thought to be extremely special, but due to a
myriad of problems, he has fallen. The Brewers could luck out
tremendously if Melville returns to form and having his velocity return
to where it was over the summer. Melville is going to command a bonus
over slot, but the Brewers should pony up this season with increased
revenue. Melville offers a low 90's fastball and two solid breaking
pitches. His changeup is still very much a work in progress making a
Jeremy Bonderman comparison fair.
17. Toronto Blue Jays - Brett Wallace, 1B/3B, Arizona State
If
Wallace lasts this long, a very unlikely scenario, but the way it has
played in this draft, the Jays might be doing backflips. Wallace might
not be the dominating player in the bigs that he has been in college,
but should be a very good player. He has an outside chance to stay at
third base, but a move back to first seems likely. He is going to
provide an incredible OPS and flash quite a bit of power. He is
remenscent of a young Kevin Youkilis.
18. New York Mets - Jason Castro, C Stanford
The
Mets have a pension for continually sticking to slot and going college
reliever, but with Brian Schneider as the starter and no real depth in
the system, the Mets go for a reliable college backstop who will be a
plus defender and a league average hitter. He commands a staff well
and has been known for his leadership, something that should endear him
to Mets fans.
19. Chicago Cubs - Jake Odorizzi, RHP Highland HS
The
Cubs take the best player on the board adding another arm to their
fairly deep system. Odorizzi has absolutely shot up boards with a
power fastball and hammer curve that really complement his easy
delivery. He has the highest ceiling of any high school arm in the
class but is also very raw. The Cubbies have never shied away from
taking power arms that need some coaching. If they are patient, this
could be an extremely astute draft choice.
20. Seattle Mariners - Zach Collier, OF Chino Hills HS
After
completely destroying their farm system for Erik Bedard, the Mariners
draft a young and athletic outfielder. Collier has plus speed and a
chance to be a very good contact hitter with solid power. He plays a
natural centerfield but could have to move to a corner position if he
grows in to his body.
21. Detroit Tigers - Casey Kelly, SS/RHP Sarasota HS
It
can't really be this easy, can it? Kelly has plenty of upside as both
a shortstop and pitcher, but most agree that his future is on the
mound. He compares really well to Kyle Drabek in that both have power
arms and a solid bad and could really go both ways. As a pitcher,
Kelly demonstrates the reason he is a top quarterback recruit. He has
solid velocity and developing breaking pitches.
22. New York Mets - Andrew Cashner, RP TCU
It
really wouldn't be a draft without the Mets taking a college reliver.
Cashner throws hard and he throws stikes, making his stay in the minors
likely a short one. If the Mets continue to falter down the stretch,
many of their spare parts will likely be dealt and Cashner should get a
chance to take over setup duties from Aaron Heilman and eventually
replace the aging Billy Wagner.
23. San Diego Padres - Lance Lynn, RHP Mississippi
Very
few things in the draft are constant, but the Padres going safe and
college almost always seems to be the case. Lynn doesn't profile as
anything more than a number three, but at worst he profiles as a number
5. He is physically developed and what you see is what you get. He
isn't going to blow away hitters, but will get hitters out with an
arsenal of pitches. He steps it up when it counts.
24. Philadelphia Phillies - Ethan Martin, 3B/RHP
Stephens County HS
It
will be VERY interesting to see what the Phillies do with Martin. He is
very new to pitching, but has excelled on the mound showing a big time
fastball and an even better slurve. He is pretty raw but has all of
the skills to excel. As a third basemen, he looks very similar to Troy
Glaus with excellent power. The Phillies have been looking for a third
basemen since they dealt Scott Rolen but always seem to lack pitching.
25. Colorado Rockies - Shooter Hunt, RHP Tulane
Hunt's
biggest question mark has been command and it has really come undone
for him in the past few weeks. He shows great velocity and secondary
stuff, but his command is what separates him frmo being a number 2
starter and a fringe starter/middle reliever. If the Rockies are
patient with him and don't push him, they should get a steal here.
However, the chance that he makes it and miss it are just about even.
26. Arizona Diamondbacks - Ryan Perry, RHP Arizona
After
the D-backs traded quite a bit of their farm system for Haren and
traded away Jose Valverde, the Diamondbacks have had some bullpen
issues. Brandon Lyon has been incredibly good as the closer, but Tony
Pena has been markedly average in a set up roll. Perry shows a
fastball that works around 98 mph with a devastating slider. Arizona
moved Perry around quite a bit, but make no mistake his future is as a
closer.
27. Minnesota Twins - Jemile Weeks, 2B Miami
Rickie's
baby brother has pesky switch hitting leadoff hitter with a high
average and few strikeouts written all over him. In other words, he's
a perfect Minnesota Twins type player. Weeks will hit for around 300
and could easily hit 15-20 homers a season while provided 20-30
steals. He is pretty solid with the glove offering above average
defense at second base.
28. New York Yankees - Gerrit Cole, RHP Orange Lutheran HS
There
is no question that Cole has the best arm in this draft. There is also
no question that Cole is just as likely to throw another 101 MPH heater
for the strikeout as he is to throw 100 MPH at someone's head, spit on
them and then throw his glove at his fallen body. Cole's delivery is
very reminscent of Jake Peavy's with a lot more torque on the elbow,
making him a huge injury concern. His price tag could be close to Rick
Porcello's in 2007, and Cole's polish is nowhere near that of
Porcello. Cole is a candidate to stay in the minors for quite some
time to work on polish and maturity. However, the Yankees seem to be
enamored with the big heater no matter what, see Andrew Brackman.
29. Cleveland Indians - Conor Gillaspie, 3B Wichita State
In
Gillaspie, the Indians select a gritty hitter who is going to fight off
pitches and show the ability to stay at third base in the bigs. He'll
hit for a decent average and good power, though it might be a lot more
doubles than homers. His game could easily translate to the Indians
style of play, plugging in quickly in the bottom third of the Indians'
order.
30. Boston Red Sox - Reese Havens, C South Carolina
This
seems to be the biggest rumor floating around the Red Sox who have
liked Havens for quite some time. They'll have to be patient with him
as he is not a catcher, but will be making the switch back there to
acomodate the Red Sox. He shows good power and great gap tendencies.
He is a fluid athlete who should be able to make the quick transition
behind the plate.
Supplemental Round
31. Minnesota Twins - Ike Davis, OF Arizona State
Davis
has battled a rib injury that has affected his draft status, but he
still boasts some of the best skill set around. Where to play him will
be an issue, but he will be carried by his plus bat. His power should
come soon and it might be a gap power, but he's definitely got the
skills to exceed at the highest levels.
32. Milwaukee Brewers - Brett DeVall, LHP Niceville HS
The
Brewers definitely wanted to increase the depth in their pitching in
their farm system and with Melville and DeVall, they certainly achieve
their goal. DeVall does not have dominant stuff but has incredible
command of three pitches. He works in the mid to upper 80's and has a
great changeup to go along with it. He possesses a very comparable
skill set between Tom Glavine and Jamie Moyer. Of all the high school
pitchers, he could be ready first.
33. New York Mets - Tyson Ross, RHP Cal
Ross
is an enigma, but could prove to be an extremely astute pick for the
Mets. He has a plus-plus slider but pitches off of it too much, rather
than using it as a putaway pitch. As the season moved forward, he
started working off his fastball more and using the slider as a
strikeout pitch. If the Mets continue to coach him, he could be one of
the steals of the draft.
34. Philadelphia Phillies - Isaac Galloway, OF Los Osos HS
It's
no secret that the Phillies love their athletes and their tools. From
a pure tools standpoint, Galloway is right around the top of the
boards. However, he is extremely raw and lacks pitch recognition. If
he puts it all together, he is going to hit for power and provide
absolutely filthy defense. He is at least a 5 year project, something
Phillies brass and fans must consider.
35. Milwaukee Brewers - Dennis Raben, OF Miami
After adding to a thinning rotation, the Brewers go BPA and selected a
very talented outfielder from Miami. Raben is going to offer a plus
bat and above average defense, something to definitely offset the
complete lack of mobility from 2007 first round pick Matt Laporta. As
he fills out, his power should only grow. Along with Laporta, the
Brewers should have a very potent all or nothing lineup from the
corners.
36.
Kansas City Royals - James Darnell, RF South Carolina
The Royals opt to keep part of the South Carolina infield together,
though a move to right field seems inevitable for Darnell. Darnell
looks very much like current Royal Mark Teahan with Teahan's early
power potential. He might not break 280, but providing significant
power will definitely help offset that. As a defender, Darnell offers
a plus arm that should help to cut down quite a few runs.
37. San Francisco Giants - David Cooper, 1B Cal
The Giants definitely attempt to upgrade an aging offense and Posey
and Cooper should definitely help do just that. In Cooper, Sabean must
make a very difficult decision on where to play him as uber prospect
Angel Villalona currently is the Giants' first base prospect of the
future and Cooper would be below average in left field, especially at
home. From the plate though, Cooper offers a very smooth and very
powerful swing generating quite a bit of bat speed very quickly.
38. Houston Astros - Mike Montgomery, LHP Hart HS
As a lefty who throws 95 mph and is projectable with a 6'5" frame,
Montgomery does offer quite a few question marks though with his very
slow breaking ball. He shows great feel for the changeup though, and
with a solid fastball, his change becomes much more effective. There
is reason to believe that he is going to be able to sit in the mid 90's
while he fills in to his frame. His delivery is smooth and repeatable
and in his biggest games he was the best.
39. St. Louis Cardinals - Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B Pitt JC
Chisenhall's off-field incidents have been well chronicled and his bat
is finally starting to put some of those issues to rest. He has a very
free and easy swing from the left side of the plate that profiles to
eventually 20-30 homers. His eventual home is bound to be third base,
however he could move to second where he'd look a lot like Chase
Utley. He is a risk but a definite payoff.
40. Atlanta Braves - Xavier Avery, OF Cedar Grove HS
The Braves seem to prefer to go local and Avery is definitely deserving
of this pick. He has speed to burn and could easily steal 80 bases a
season if he's on base enough. His bat is still a little bit raw, but
he has shown an extreme dedication to improving. His power will be
slow to develop, but his speed will definitely allow for quite a few
triples. Defensively, he's got amazing range and zone ability, but his
arm is only average making centerfield his definite home.
41. Chicago Cubs - Tanner Scheppers, RHP Fresno
A team with money to burn seems likely gamble on Scheppers, who has
undergone a series of tests to determine the problem with his
shoulder. If healthy, Scheppers is a top 10 pick. He flashes an upper
90's fastball with a Brad Lidge like slider that could rate as a 70
right now. Scheppers is still relatively new to pitching, but has made
tremendous strides in a very short time. He is one of the few pitchers
in this class with legit number 1 potential.
42. San Diego Padres - Eric Thames, LF Pepperdine
It's no secret that the Padres' offense and farm system are really,
really bad. Thames has grown considerably over the past two seasons
and continues to fill his frame and provide significant upside from a
college hitter who understands the strike zone, hits the opposite way
and feasts on poor pitching. His power has been slow to develop, but
definitely flashes 20-30 homer potential. In the run suppressing Petco
Park, that number could be deflated.
43. Arizona Diamondbacks - Anthony Gose, LHP Bellflower HS
Only injuries kept Gose from rising in to the top 10. As a two way
player, few offer anything as exciting as Gose. From the mound, his
final home, he flashes an upper 90's fastball with movement and a very
hard breaking ball. However, he is very raw and his command is very
erratic. With such a deep system, Arizona can afford to be very
patient with him and let him try to become a consistent pitcher,
something they hope comes with a full time move to the mound.
44. New York Yankees - Alex Meyer, RHP Greensburg HS
Meyer is arguably the most unsignable player in the draft being
represented by Boras and a strong commitment to Kentucky. However, it
might be tough to turn down the Yankees and their very large
checkbook. It's been a few years since the Bombers hoisted a World
Series crown and the Steinbrenners are willing to do what it takes. On
the mound, Myer is a very intimidating 6'7" with a strong fastball,
slider, changeup combination and very good command for a high
schooler. He profiles as a strong 2 or 3 and a dominant workhorse.
45. Boston Red Sox - Dan Schelereth, LHP Arizona
The Red Sox are clearly the model franchise in the bigs right now.
Their bullpen could definitely use a dominant lefty and the best player
on the board right now. Schlereth comes with an upper 90's fastball
and extremely improved command. He profiles as a strong setup man or
closer in the bigs with the ability to have a very high strikeout rate.
46. San Diego Padres - Chris Carpenter, RHP Kent State
Finally the Padres take a risk. If completely healthy and over his arm
worries, Carpenter can be as good as the former Cy Young winner bearing
the same name. He has a true power arsenal with a mid 90's fastball,
two nasty breaking pitches and a solid changeup. The only question is
injuries, including TJ and a dead arm. If the Padres can nurse him
along, they are going to definitely reap the benefits.
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