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I DON'T HAVE MUCH OF AN APPETITE, THANK YOU

Aram Tolegian passionately hates Brad Lidge.

You may recall a post from mid-February where I criticized Tolegian's power rankings. Tolegian said of Phillies closer Lidge,

How any team can trust Brad Lidge to close is beyond us. But that's assuming he's even on the mound. Lidge had surgery to repair cartilage in his right knee in October. It goes without saying that this is something to watch in spring.

His updated power rankings were recently posted on FOX Sports and he snipes at Lidge again. He originally had the Phillies at #13 and knocked them down to #14 and dedicated almost the entire block of Phillies-related text to Lidge-bashing:

We warned about Brad Lidge in the last set of rankings, while scoffing at the Phils acquiring the troubled closer in the off-season's biggest move. That led to some abuse in the blogosphere, before being proven right when the righty closer injured his knee early in spring. The problem with Lidge is that he's seemingly always balancing between injury and incompetence. We know he's injured, and there are still doubts he can close effectively for an entire season. Beside Lidge, the Phils left spring training in good shape. The opening week schedule features at trip to brand-new Nationals Park before a weekend visit at the Reds.

There's so much wrong with the analysis, so we'll take it piece by piece.

We warned about Brad Lidge in the last set of rankings

Yeah? You warned that his spike would get caught in the dirt on the pitcher's mound? I don't seem to recall that. Sure, you warned that his initial knee surgery wasn't a guarantee to succeed, and that's a legitimate concern. However, the recent injury in question had absolutely nothing to do with it and it was simply a freak injury. You did not "warn" anyone about this.

while scoffing at the Phils acquiring the troubled closer in the off-season's biggest move.

Is a troubled closer someone who posts a 131 ERA+, a 1.254 WHIP, and an 11.8 K/9 rate? If that is your standard for a closer being troubled, I guess Francisco Cordero was troubled last season as well, as he posted similar though slightly better numbers.

Cite that Albert Pujols game-winning home run all you want as a cause for concern, it will never have any merit. That homer occurred in the 2006 NLCS, and he had a pretty good 2007 season. I don't think being mentally anguished by a home run is something that skips a year, like Diabetes sometimes skips a generation.

That led to some abuse in the blogosphere

I don't recall anyone else giving him credit for existing by criticizing his power rankings, so I'm assuming this refers to me.

It seems more and more journalists are taking the Fire Joe Morgan-style criticism like a war veteran treats bullet wounds: they wear the scars as a badge of honor.

Maybe Aram is simply writing this garbage so that bloggers like me link to and discuss his work. As they say, any publicity is good publicity.

The problem with Lidge is that he's seemingly always balancing between injury and incompetence.

Aram's definition of incompetence: Career 132 ERA+, 1.197 WHIP, 12.6 K/9 rate.

Lidge has never had injury problems until last season. He started pitching regularly in 2003 and logged at least 70 innings in every season until '07 when he logged 67.

We know he's injured, and there are still doubts he can close effectively for an entire season.

"We know he's injured."

Professional journalism at its best, folks. I wonder how much research went into that one.

There are two groups of people who doubt that he can be an effective closer. The first group consists of the reasonable people who are simply concerned with his knee. The second group is made up of the ignorant: the people who think that a pitcher's career can unravel because of a home run that happened a year and a half ago despite not showing any signs of mental anguish in the season that followed.

Guess which group Aram falls into?

Beside Lidge, the Phils left spring training in good shape.

No, not really, but spring training doesn't matter anyway. The bullpen issues weren't really resolved unless you count the acquisition of Tim Lahey. No one stepped up and demanded the #5 spot in the rotation, and good ol' Adam Eaton won it by default (and by default, I mean "having the most burdensome contract"). Pedro Feliz didn't draw a single walk between the end of February and the end of March.

Yeah, next time, maybe do a little research.

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THE CITY THAT HATES TOM GORDON

Well, Opening Day is a wrap, and once again, the bullpen is responsible for the Phillies' first loss of the season. You may recall Ryan Madson blowing last year's opener by serving up a two-run home run to Edgar Renteria, then of the Atlanta Braves. Today's culprit is Tom Gordon, responsible for all five runs the Washington Nationals scored in the top of the ninth inning.

A recap of the coup the Nationals staged against the ineffective right-hander and de facto closer:

• Lastings Milledge legs out an infield single to shortstop.
• Nick Johnson hits a one-out RBI double to deep center field and advances to third on the throw home.
• Austin Kearns walks.
• Johnson scores when Carlos Ruiz tries to catch him napping off of third base when Paul Lo Duca bluffs a squeeze bunt.
• Lo Duca doubles to left-center, scoring Kearns.
• Ronnie Belliard doubles to deep center, scoring Lo Duca.
• Dmitri Young hits a two-out RBI double that bounces high off of the right field fence off of reliever Clay Condrey.

Brutal.

Starter Brett Myers wasn't sharp, but nonetheless effective. He pitched five innings, allowed five hits, walked two, allowed four runs (three of which were earned), and only struck out two.

Ryan Madson relieved Myers in the sixth inning. With two outs, Nationals shortstop Cristian Guzman eked out an infield single to shortstop, and Lastings Milledge followed by jacking a two-run home run well over the left field fence.

The Phillies had opportunities but could only manage three runs in the first six innings. Chase Utley hit a sacrifice fly in the first, Pat Burrell hit an RBI single in the fourth, and Utley hit a solo homer to right field in the sixth.

The Phightin Phils did mount a comeback in the seventh. Jayson Werth led off with a walk. The gravy train appeared to be rolling when catcher Carlos Ruiz yanked an RBI double to left-center and reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins defended his honor by tying the game up with a two-run homer that just barely cleared the fence around the 380-foot sign, courtesy Nationals left-hander Ray King.

That was it though, as the Phils quickly went down 1-2-3 in both the bottom of the eighth and ninth innings.

Game graph courtesy FanGraphs.

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OPENING DAY PREPARATION

The Washington Nationals are now in Philadelphia following an exciting Opening Day 3-2 win last night against the Atlanta Braves that saw third baseman Ryan Zimmerman christen new Nationals Stadium with a walk-off solo home run in the bottom of the ninth inning. Odalis Perez - who drew interest from a new teams including the Phillies - started for the Nats and was stunningly effective: 5 innings, four hits, one walk, and one run - a solo homer to Chipper Jones.

Lefty Matt Chico will start for the Nationals as Brett Myers takes the hill for the Phillies in the Citizens Bank Park season opener. Keep an eye on Nationals closer Chad Cordero. He was warming up to come in for the ninth inning to try and nail down a 2-1 lead, but he never came in, and was instead replaced by Jon Rauch, who blew the save. Cordero has right shoulder tendinitis and it may prevent him from appearing in any games against the Phillies.

Obviously, the Phillies' 25-man roster is now set, and the only surprises should be Tim Lahey and Wes Helms. Lahey was just acquired and he has to stay on the 25-man roster or be offered back to the Cubs, as it goes with Rule-5 acquisitions. Helms somehow made it onto the roster despite being a player having no purpose, quite literally. Most (or maybe just me) thought that he'd be dealt before the end of spring training. There were rumors, including a trade to San Francisco for lefty reliever Steve Kline, but that deal fell through and Kline was simply dropped by the Giants. With Greg Dobbs and Eric Bruntlett on the roster, Helms shouldn't see a great deal of time - or any - at third base. Nor should he see any time at first base with Ryan Howard there and plenty of other players able to man the position at a higher level, and it's extremely unlikely they'd use him in a corner outfield spot unless there are a rash of injuries.

I feel sorry for Helms despite all of the items I threw at my TV screen last year after many of his at-bats.

Some Publicity

Chris Illuminati of PhillyBurbs.com and I corresponded on a piece they were doing called "The Must-Have Book Guide" for the upcoming baseball season. I, of course, suggested The Bill James Handbook. Check it out here if you're interested.

Tim Malcom of Phillies Nation organized a "Phloggers Roundtable" - a discussion of the 2008 Phillies team by the bloggers that cover them. I was joined by Tom Goyne of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff as well. Unfortunately, there were a few who weren't able to make it but some did participate later on, including Enrico Campitelli of The 700 Level, Erik Grissom of Phillies Flow,  and GM Carson of We Should be GM's.

Click here to check out the "Phloggers Roundtable" at Phillies Nation. My contributions are in teal-colored text.

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YOU DID ASK FOR IT, KEN

I'm usually reluctant to criticize anything Ken Rosenthal writes because it's usually well-researched and well-defended, unlike a lot of what's published in newspapers and magazines to be read by millions countrywide. Mr. Rosenthal, however, has written an article defending his selection of the Braves as 2008's World Series selection waving the red flag at the bull that is the Sabermetric community (not to imply that said community thinks in lockstep).

He starts off his article waving a raw steak just outside the cage where it can't be reached:

Bloggers, it's your lucky day.

Not that you ever need prompting to rip apart the latest ill-informed splattering from the mainstream media, but here's an invitation on a gold-engraved, all-but-autographed platter:

I feel like I really want to punch him*, but he's begging for it so much that I don't want to give him the satisfaction.

* I'm actually a pacifist and likely don't have that great of a punch.

Embarrassing as it is to admit, my annual column predicting which team will win the World Series often defies sabermetric orthodoxy, not to mention conventional logic. Sort of like baseball itself.

The way Rosenthal writes this, it's like he's proud of writing stuff that defies logic. "I know conventional logic says that if you throw something up in the air, gravity will bring it back down, but I think that's balderdash."

Statistical analysis is an invaluable tool; that discussion is over. But we've gotten to the point where everyone from the casual fantasy player to the shrewdest GM wants to know the end of the story before Chapter One is written.

Mercifully, that's not how the game works.

Well, Ken, I don't think anyone with a working knowledge of Sabermetrics is using them like a crystal ball. Humans, sadly, have this limitation where they can't see into the future and put all their money into Bear Stearns.

I often liken traditional statistics and Sabermetrics to different prescriptions of your eye-enhancement of choice (well, are you a glasses person or a contacts person?). Traditional statistics like batting average, RBI, runs scored, won-lost records, saves, etc. all provide a portion of the picture, but not a clear one. To make an analogy to the analogy, traditional statistics are a television circa 1985 with the bunny-eared antenna. Sabermetrics provide a clearer picture, like an HDTV circa 2008. It's not perfect by any means, but it's the best we have right now and incredibly useful - they provide an amazingly lifelike picture.

It seems almost as if Kenny is discrediting Sabermetrics for not predicting the future correctly 100% of the time. That's impossible, for obvious reasons. But they come close relative to the other options we have (guessing, rolling dice). After the 2007 regular season ended, I made an Excel file comparing the results with PECOTA's pre-season projections and I found that the number of games between PECOTA and reality was...

• 0 games: 2 teams, 6.7% (both Chicago teams, oddly enough)
• 1-5 games: 17 teams, 56.7% (ARI, ATL, BAL, BOS, CIN, DET, KC, LAD, MIL, NYM, NYY, PHI, SD, STL, TEX, TOR, WAS)
• 6-10 games: 8 teams, 26.7% (CLE, COL, FLA, HOU, LAA, OAK, PIT, SF)
• 11+ games: 3 teams, 10% (MIN, SEA, TB)

You can download the spreadsheet here, if you'd like.

I don't know how well PECOTA fared in previous years, but its performance in '07 is impressive: it foresaw the dreadful decline of the White Sox, and the return to Earth of the Tigers, for instance.

So, Ken's point that you can't predict the future is valid, but it's not valid without crediting how much more accurate the predictions can be with the use of Sabermetrics.

The 2005 White Sox, '06 Cardinals and '07 Rockies were among the recent World Series clubs that defied the supposed experts, myself included. Some other team will do the same this season, reminding us again that baseball's unpredictability is part of what makes the game so much fun.

The paradoxy of saying that baseball is unpredictable and then predicting that a team will defy predictions aside... saying that a team will defy predictions to discredit those predictions doesn't mean much. It's like using a fortune teller to place all your bets for a week of NFL games, and you get the first 14 games right, and rake in a ton of money. As you sit and watch the Monday Night game, your fortune teller errs and the 49ers somehow beat the Patriots. Despite the fact that the teller has selected 93% of the games correctly* you decide to dwell on the one mistake and throw the baby out with the bath water.

* Obviously, that scenario is entirely facetious. Do not use fortune tellers to help you in your NFL get rich quick scheme.

Bloggers, man your keyboards!

My Spidey Sense is tingling, and I sense derisiveness from Mr. Rosenthal.

My choice to win it all is the Braves.

That's absolutely fine. I await to see how you back it up with facts.

As the accompanying sidebar suggests, I've been largely unsuccessful with my pre-season selections over the years.

An ad hominem on yourself? Unprecedented!

But then, who hasn't?

PECOTA and other Sabermetric-aided predictions.

The proper time to write a predictions column is actually Aug. 1 or even Sept. 1, after teams adjust their rosters through trades.

There's no "proper time" to make predictions. A prediction is saying, "Based on the information available, I think that [insert premonition]."

I think what Kenny was trying to get at is that your predictions can be more accurate if you wait a long time to see how things unfold. Thanks.

But such a late analysis would be a copout, and even then, there would be a decent chance of looking like an idiot.

Amateur psychoanalysis here, but it seems like Rosenthal is preoccupied with "looking like an idiot."

In my NCAA bracket, I had Duke getting to the Elite Eight. I'm such an idiot for thinking that. But other than that, all four of my Final Four teams were alive up until Wisconsin lost to Davidson a few minutes ago. If you're making a lot of predictions, you're going to end up getting some of them wrong, and you're going to end up looking like an idiot on some picks. Bob Knight picked Pittsburgh to win it all, and they lost in the second round. He looks like an idiot but it doesn't discredit him from ever coaching again or making more predictions.

Grow a pair, Ken, make some predictions and tell us your reasoning behind it. At least if you get it wrong, you can feel good about getting it wrong. Why do I feel like my guidance counselor?

Few imagined last Sept. 1 that the Rockies would make the playoffs and the Mets would not.

Because people lack access to a time portal.

Anyway, here are my general rules for a preseason forecast, knowing that Eliot Spitzer stands a greater chance of being president in 2012 than I do of nailing one of these suckers outright:

An Eliot Spitzer joke. Ken is topical!

And he's self-deprecating. Me likey.

Never pick the Red Sox.

Never pick the Yankees.

Why? Because they're good teams? Because they have high payrolls? Why would you not pick these teams to succeed? I mean, if you are scared about looking like an idiot, it seems like you'd want to go with the obvious picks.

Never pick a National League team unless under the influence of imagination-enhancing drugs.

Why? This isn't the NBA - the National League isn't the Eastern Conference and the American League isn't the Western Conference. The best in the NL can compete with the best in the AL.

The Red Sox, winners of two of the last four World Series, probably are the best team on paper. But picking them is like picking the smartest kid in class to finish with the highest SAT.

It's highly likely that your pick will end up correct, making you look like a genius instead of an idiot?

Besides, the only way for a team to win back-to-back Series is to keep its pitching intact through three postseason rounds for two straight years. Hard to do.

It's not the only way; it's a way, albeit a highly good way. According to this logic, last year's Red Sox could swap Beckett, Schilling, Matsuzaka, et. al. with Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, etc. and not increase its chances of winning it all, since their pitching staff is noticeably different.

The Yankees, who have not won the Series since 2000, almost could qualify as a surprise team at this point - almost.

It's just my own subjective observations, but it seems like a lot in the media are picking the Yankees to make the playoffs. Personally, I have them missing out because I think they are depending too heavily on unproven arms, but I would not be surprised if they won the AL East. They have an offense that will match the heavily-lauded Tigers.

They are a surprise team in that they're not currently better than the Red Sox or either of the Indians and Tigers, leaving them second in the Wild Card chase at best.

But now that they're trying to incorporate younger, less expensive players, the Yankees are like the rich kid in the neighborhood who tries to act cool by dressing down. Sorry, the rich kid is still a rich kid - and with dubious pitching, I might add.

These are two sentences that are ripe for amateur psychoanalysis, but I'll restrain myself for now.

The analogy falls apart because the Yankees aren't using young pitchers to fit in with the crowd; they're doing so out of necessity. A better analogy would be the rich kid having all this stuff because his parents own Bear Stearns and then having to find clothing at Goodwill because of, well, you know.

Actually, the NL has produced three of the past seven World Series champions - the '01 Diamondbacks, the '03 Marlins and the '06 Cardinals.Frankly, I'm sensing another NL breakthrough [...]

That's it! Write it down! Ken's feelin' it, and he's feelin' an NL team winning it all! Dump your Bear Stearns stock and put it in KenRo Inc.

[...] and not simply because two of the best pitchers in the AL, Johan Santana and Dan Haren, were traded to NL clubs. None of the AL contenders looks as dominant as the '07 Red Sox; I can't quantify it, but the disparity between the top teams in each league might not be as great in years past.

The '08 Red Sox don't look as dominant? I guess if you think losing Curt Schilling for a half-season (potentially more) is damning. It's a loss, no doubt, but he's 41 and not anywhere near as dominant as he used to be. Call me crazy, but I think this year's rotation of Beckett/Matsuzaka/Lester/Buchholz/Wakefield will be nearly as good as last year's Beckett/Schilling/Matsuzaka/Wakefield/Tavarez-Lester.

Some (not I) would argue that this year's Tigers look dominant with the addition of Miguel Cabrera. Some (not I) would also argue that this year's Mariners look dominant with the acquisition of Erik Bedard.

The Indians haven't changed much and C.C. Sabathia is in a contract year.

The Braves have constructed an AL-type offense.

They have a DH? They are refusing to bunt with their pitchers?

Their bullpen will get a boost if lefty Mike Gonzalez returns from elbow-ligament transplant surgery at mid-season.

That's great, but what are they going to do in the meantime?

Their rotation features enough options to absorb ineffectiveness and/or injury [...]

John Smoltz will start the season on the disabled list and is nearing age 41. Tom Glavine is 42 and his '07 season was about as bad as his '03 season (his first with the Mets). Mike Hampton hasn't pitched in two years and is 35.

Really, the only sure thing is Tim Hudson.

I'm not saying the Braves will again trade for this year's Mark Teixeira, but they should be able to get the piece or pieces they need.

How do you know what they'll need? So far, you've said that they won't really need any starting pitching ("enough options") or bullpen arms ("boost from Mike Gonzalez"), and the Braves are set at catcher, first base, second base, third base, center field, and right field. So, barring catastrophic injuries, the Braves would be trading for a shortstop or left fielder. Otherwise, they're not really trading for anyone of consequence.

Yet, the Braves aren't the only legitimate NL threat.

Really? Who'da thunk it?

The Cubs could be a World Series team if they add Brian Roberts.

They won't:

Baltimore president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail told reporters in Ft. Lauderdale Wednesday that a Brian Roberts deal with the Cubs is off the table.

"We worked at it this long and we don't have deal," MacPhail said. "There's other sides characterizing it as an impasse. You make the judgment."

The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if their run prevention reasonably complements their run production.

Translation: The Phillies and Brewers will be very good if they score more runs than their opponents.

These observations are reaching John Madden levels.

The Diamondbacks' young position players should improve offensively, and the Dodgers are just too talented to ignore.

"Guys, who are you all picking to win the NL West?"

"D-backs."

"Rockies."

"D-Backs."

"D-Backs."

"Rockies."

"Agh! I can't take it anymore! The Dodgers! The Dodgers!" (Falls on floor, crying) "They're too talented!"

Also under consideration: The Mets, who must contend with age and injury concerns, and the defending champion Rockies, whose rotation is a bit of a wild card.

The Rockies' rotation was a wild card last season and they went to the World Series.

Mostly healthy last season, the Sox already are without Curt Schilling and could start the season without Josh Beckett. Daisuke Matsuzaka's '07 load - he averaged more pitches per start than any major-league pitcher - might be another warning sign.

Beckett is shooting for April 6. Unless you think the post-season hopes of the Red Sox will be made or broken by one game, this isn't really a huge issue.

Will Hideki Okajima be as dominant a reliever this season?

He sure looked dominant last season.

Will Manny Delcarmen emerge as a legitimate late-inning weapon?

44 IP, 1.023 WHIP, 232 ERA+, 41 K, 17 BB in '07. Looks good to me. All of the projections besides CHONE have him finishing the season with a sub-4.00 ERA and all of them have him pitching 50+ innings.

It's also difficult to imagine their top three relievers - Joe Borowski, Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez - being as good again.

"Ken, we think Borowski, Betancourt, and Perez are going to be good in '08, but before we publish it, we wanted to check with you. Can you see them being good?"

Ken: (Closes his eyes, grits his teeth, and tries to imagine what '08 will look like for those three) I see... Abraham Nunez hitting 20 HR, and unicorns, and Adam Eaton winning the Cy Young. But I'm just not seeing those three being nearly as good as they were in '07. Sorry, guys."

Borowski wasn't good last season, by the way. It's a great illustration of why the save statistic is so flawed. He had 45 saves last season, but he had a 5.07 ERA and a 1.431 WHIP in nearly 66 innings.

On the other hand, Rafael Betancourt has been dominant in each of the past five seasons. He had a 312 ERA+ last season.

Rafael Perez was almost as dominant as Betancourt last season, but he's only had one full season in the Majors and it is reasonable to expect a decline from him.

A baseball season amounts to 162 episodes of 30 different reality shows.

Why is this comparison even necessary?

Those who think they can figure out the scripts in advance are kidding themselves.

I have a few friends who are very into Rock of Love 2. They have predicted with amazing accuracy which girl is going to get the boot. Why can they do this? They notice how they interact with Bret Michaels, they pay attention to body language and the intricacies of the conversations.*

Similarly, if you do your research, you can be accurate in your predictions.

* This will be the one and only time I will ever mention Rock of Love.

The stats reveal trend lines and tendencies, but in the end the game is played by human beings.

Played by human beings who create those trend lines and tendencies.

I like the Braves ... I think.

Bloggers, fire away.

Hope you liked it, Kenny.

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I MET CHELSEA CLINTON

I usually try to stray from the personal blogs, but I just had a really interesting day on Thursday, so I thought I'd share it. I'll start from the top.

I went with a friend to Delaware County Community College to see poet Sonia Sanchez. To any Delco-based readers, if you ever have a chance to go to one of her presentations, I highly recommend it. Her poetry is not only amazing, but it's not based on just the words; the way she recited it added just as much as word selection. I found one of the poems she read on YouTube, called "Peace." She's highly liberal, so that's a warning to any of my conservative readers.

Anyway, after that, we went to Wawa for something to eat, and we killed some time before we headed up to West Chester University to see Chelsea Clinton take a two-hour Q & A from the audience. She had fairly lengthy, detailed responses to each of the questions, so I stood there for a good 45 minutes to an hour before my question was taken. The previous questions were cookie-cutters like "What does your mother plan to do about the receding economy?" or "What is Hilary's stance on stem-cell research?"

I would have none of it. Donning my red Phillies hat and gray Phillies sweatshirt, I held my arm up and waved it around frantically, begging for her attention. It worked, and I had the floor for the next question for the daughter of one of the top two Democratic Presidential nominees. With TV cameras and dozens of college kids' cameras and cell phones pointed at me, I summoned my stately voice and calmly asked her, "Since you're in this area of Pennsylvania, how well do you think the Phillies are going to do this year?"

I got a mixed response: half laughter, half "this guy's a jackass." To Chelsea's credit, she took it in stride and simply said (to paraphrase), "I'm from New York so I'm not going to go there."

After the Q & A was over, about 75 or so people hung around and moved up front to meet, get autographs from, and take pictures with Ms. Clinton. I and my four comrades took this opportunity and waited our turn. When I got to the front of the line, I was given the unfortunate task of having to take someone else's picture. And in case you're asking, no, I did not screw up the picture. I was anxious to meet Ms. Clinton though. After the camera flash, I swiftly walked up to her and asked her, "Hey, did you like my Phillies question?"

"Oh, that was you?" she replied.

"Yeah, I like to keep people on their toes like that. Hi, I'm Bill Baer - nice to meet you."

"My pleasure," said the daughter of former President Bill and former First Lady and hopeful President Hilary Clinton.  "My boyfriend's from Philly, so he'd be on your side with that question."

My days are usually monotonous, so this was quite a welcome bit of excitement for me, and oddly enough, not one second of my day was sports-related (besides my clothing and my questioning). I ignored my NCAA bracket (still got 3 of the 4 games today) and spring training baseball. It was worth it.

Still not going to vote for Hilary, though. Or anyone for that matter.