The Arizona Cardinals and the Pittsburgh Steelers offer a lot of compelling match ups with just a week away.  You have Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm going against the team they built their reputations with as assistants in Pittsburgh.  Kurt Warner vs. Big Ben is an interesting storyline at the quarterback spot.  Larry Fitzgerald trying to cap off the best postseason by a receiver in NFL history will create some interest. 

But one storyline that isn't going to draw a lot of interest is a match up between two dominant regular season teams.  The Pittsburgh Steelers were very dominant going 12-4 and earning the second seed in the AFC playoff bracket.  But the Arizona Cardinals were hardly dominant in the regular season.  They become only the second 9-7 team to qualify for the Super Bowl, joining the 1979 Los Angeles Rams. 

You have to understand the history of the NFL to understand the significance of this trend.  The last few seasons have seen some bizarre teams qualify for the Super Bowl.  Here are a couple things to consider. 

1) From 1990 to 2006 the Number One seed in the NFC was a perfect 17-0 in Divisional Round Games.  The last two seasons the Number One seed in 0-2, with both teams losing to teams that were vastly inferior to them in the regular season.  The 13-3 Cowboys swept the 10-6 Giants in the regular season, but lost in the 2007 Divisional Round.  The 12-4 Giants split with the 9-6-1 Eagles in the regular season, but lost in the 2008 Divisional Round.

2) From 1990 to 2006 the Number Two seed in the NFC was 14-3 in Divisional Round Games.   In 1995 the #3 seeded 11-5 Packers beat the 11-5 49ers in San Francisco.  In 2001 the #3 seeded 11-5 Eagles beat the 13-3 Chicago Bears in Chicago.  In 2005 the #5 seeded 11-5 Panthers beat the 11-5 Bears.  The last two seasons the #2 seed is 2-1 in the Divisional Round, but 13-3 Green Bay fell victim to the 10-6 Giants in the NFC Championship Game.

3) From 1966 to 1990 there were only four wild cards that qualified for the Super Bowl.  The 11-3 1969 Chiefs won Super Bowl IV. The 10-4 1975 Cowboys lost Super Bowl X.  The 11-5 1980 Oakland Raiders won Super Bowl XV.  The 11-5 1985 New England Patriots lost Super Bowl XX. 

From 1990 to 2008 the 12-4 1997 Denver Broncos, 13-3 1999 Tennessee Titans, 12-4 2000 Baltimore Ravens,  11-5 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, and 2007 New York Giants all represented their conference in the Super Bowl as wildcard teams.  All but the 1999 Titans won the Super Bowl.

Also consider that the only Number One seeds to win the Super Bowl since 1990 are the 1991 Washington Redskins, 1993 Dallas Cowboys, 1994 San Francisco 49ers, 1995 Dallas Cowboys, 1996 Packers, 1998 Denver Broncos, 1999 St Louis Rams, and 2003 New England Patriots.  That's only 42% of the number one seeds winning the Super Bowl with only one coming this decade. 

4) Prior to the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers no team had ever won four road playoff games to claim the Super Bowl.  The New York Giants duplicated the feat just two years later. 

5) The only Super Bowls since 1990 where neither playoff team had to win a road playoff game to qualify for the Super Bowl were Super Bowl XXXI (New England vs. Green Bay), Super Bowl XXX (Pittsburgh vs. Dallas), Super Bowl XXVIII (Buffalo vs. Dallas), and  Super Bowl XXVI (Buffalo vs. Washington).

In the 1970s and 1980s it was pretty predictable which teams were going to go to the Super Bowl.  If a team only lost two games in the regular season they were going to get to the Super Bowl most years.  Rarely was a team going to go into Pittsburgh or into Miami and win a playoff game.  In the last 10 years the better bet is to go with one of the lower seeded teams. 

The question becomes why the change?  Why is it suddenly easier for teams with average regular seasons to suddenly turn it on at the end of the season and win the Super Bowl.  Here were some reasons I thought of. 

1) The 6-team per conference playoff format - Prior to 1990 the odds were very much against the Wildcard.  The Wildcard started in 1969 when the AFL had their top two teams in each division square off in a Divisional Round.  From 1970 to 1977 there were three division winners and one wild card.  The wild card had to play the team with the best record in the first playoff game.  From 1978 to 1990 two wild card winners had to play an opening round game with the winner playing the #1 seeded team. 

I don't think it is simply a coincidence that the #1 and #2 seeds haven't been doing as well in the playoffs since they changed the divisions in 2002 to have four division winners from divisions with four teams each.  That's when we really saw the shift start.

Today the wild cards get to play an opening round game against the two weakest division winners and then advances to the next round.  With the wildcard teams not playing each other it is possible for two wildcard teams to advance.  With more teams and more wild cards able to advance the sheer rules of probability dictate that a wild card has a better chance to advance deep in the playoffs if there are more of them around in the later rounds.  

2) Free Agency / Salary Cap- Free agency has done away with the teams where 40 of their 50 players have playoff experience with that franchise over the last five seasons.  Teams are consistently changing personnel.   When you combine that with a salary cap that prevents teams from being dominant at every position it has evened the playing field both in terms of continuity and overall talent. 

3) Lack of dominant NFL quarterbacks - You can get to a Super Bowl with a good quarterback.  But if you want to go to multiple Super Bowls you usually need a Hall of Fame quarterback.  Quarterbacks are able to influence a game more than any other position. 

There used to be a lot of Hall of Fame quarterbacks in the playoffs.  In 1993 there were 12 teams in the playoffs.  Steve Young, Troy Aikman, and Brett Favre represented the NFC.  They are all first ballot Hall of Fame quarterbacks.  Phil Simms also represented the Giants.  He's a borderline Hall of Fame player.  In the AFC Joe Montana, Warren Moon, Jim Kelly, and John Elway represented the AFC.   With the exception of Favre in the NFC we pretty much knew all those guys were destined for Canton when the playoffs began.

If you go back to the 1970s the Super Bowl was nothing but Hall of Fame quarterbacks facing Hall of Fame quarterbacks.  Staubach vs. Griese.  Staubach vs. Bradshaw.  Bradshaw vs. Tarkenton.  Tarkenton vs. Griese.  Even Tarkenton vs. Stabler was a pretty compelling match up. 

This year Peyton Manning is the only certain  Hall of Fame QB that made the playoffs.  Warner is on the fence right now.  Last year Manning, Brady, and Favre were the only certain Hall of Fame players that made the playoffs.  Will Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, and Big Ben make the Hall of Fame?  Maybe.    But there just isn't the dominant play at the quarterback position that there was 10 years ago.   Donovan McNabb would have been a low end playoff quarterback in the mid 90s.  In today's NFL he is in the upper echelon of playoff quarterback talent. 

The last really compelling Hall of Fame match up in the Super Bowl was Elway vs.Favre in Super Bowl XXXII.  The other one that is close was Brady vs. Warner is Super Bowl XXXVI.  Since then we have had a lot of Brad Johnson vs. Rich Gannon or Trent Dilfer vs. Kerry Collins.  When we got Peyton Manning in there he went against Rex Grossman.

With lower level of quarterback play comes more mistakes on offense.  Turnovers are the one thing you can rarely predict in a playoff game.  With so many teams having to rely on defenses and running backs to advance to the next round of the playoffs there isn't that one guy that can put his team on his back in the playoffs week in and week out.   Teams can be dominant one week and flat the next, depending on the ability of their quarterback to protect the ball and make plays. 

The question is whether we are going to see this continuing trend of unlikely Super Bowl champions.  If you don't think the 2005 Steelers, 2006 Colts, and 2007 Giants were unlikely champions you really haven't been following the Super Bowl much.  The Steelers were the first team to win four road playoff games.  The Colts were the first team to win a Super Bowl win a scoring defense ranked 23rd in the NFL.  The previous low was 83 Raiders ranked 13th.  The 2007 NY Giants were the first champion to finish outside the top 10 in both scoring offense and defense, had to win four road playoff games, and were only the second champion to win only 10 regular season games since the league went to a 16 game schedule in 1978.  If the Cardinals win it this year it will be the fourth straight year that we have been shocked by the eventual Super Bowl Champion.

I don't think we are ever going to get back to the dominant dynasties of the 1970s and 1980s, because of the six team playoff format and free agency.  We'll still see the repeats or the three titles in four years.  That's possible.  But we aren't going to see the same five franchises in the Super Bowl every year.  We aren't going to see five franchises (Steelers, Dolphins, Raiders, Cowboys, and Vikings) dominate an entire decade like those teams dominated the 1970s.  We aren't going to see the Number One and Number Two seeds dominate the NFC like we saw from 1990 to 2005. 

But we've seen this trend happen before.  After the Steel Curtain won it's last title in 1979 the face of the NFL was changing.  The Steelers would fall off the map until Cowher emerged.  The Dolphins were no longer the dominant team they were in the 1970s.  The Raiders would win the 1980 Super Bowl as a wild card, but that team had a different look with Plunkett at quarterback instead of Stabler.  The Cowboys would be good, but not Staubach good.  The Vikings never regained their Tarkenton glory. 

From 1980 to 1987 the NFL was wide open.  The 80 Raiders and 85 Patriots qualified for the Super Bowl as wildcards.  The Raiders, 49ers, Redskins, Raiders, 49ers, Bears, Giants, and Redskins won the Super Bowl.  Their quarterbacks were Plunkett, Montana, Theismann, Plunkett, Montana, McMahon, Simms, and Williams.  Only Montana is in the Hall of fame.  Only the Raiders and 49ers won more than one Super Bowl.  There were no repeats. 

As the class of 1983 developed into a Hall of Fame class the dynamics of the NFL changes.  From 1984 to 1998 Elway, Kelly, and Marino accounted for 10 Super Bowl appearances.  The 49ers cemented themselves as a dynasty with Super Bowl wins in 1988 and 1989 with Montana and in 1994 with Steve Young.  The Cowboys reemerged behind the dominance of Troy Aikman.  Brett Favre reenergized a sleeping Packer team and took them to the Super Bowl twice.

If you look at the history of league when you have hiccup at the quarterback position where Hall of Fame talent is scarce you don't have a lot of dynasty activity and there are some unlikely teams that emerge as champions.  That's where we are at right now.  That is why people still want guys like Warner, Favre, and Garcia to continue their careers.  There just aren't that many young guys that people are excited about.   They feel with a veteran fix the field is open enough to steal a Super Bowl trophy.

The NFL is sitting on a goldmine of young quarterbacks.  The prime years for winning Super Bowls is 26 to 34.  About 80% of the quarterbacks that have participated in the Super Bowl have quarterbacks between that age.  That hasn't changed since 1990.  Elway in 1997 and 1998, Warner in 2008, and Gannon in 2002 are the exception, not the rule. 

Peyton Manning and Drew Brees still have a few years left.  Tom Brady and Carson Palmer do too if their injuries can heal.  Philip Rivers, Big Ben, Eli Manning, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Tony Romo, Matt Cassel,  and Aaron Rodgers are all young stars that are just entering that 26-34 year old bracket.  We know all of them won't make it.  Some of them may have been one or two year wonders.  But even if half of the unproven guys are for real there are several teams that are sitting on gold mines.  If they can find running backs and defenses to compliment those guys there are some teams that could dominate the NFL for the next five to ten years.  If you get two or three teams in each conference that have a franchise quarterback, a great running game, and a top ten defense they are going to be impossible to knock out of the playoffs.  That could lead to some more normalcy in the NFL playoff system where the top seeds are the ones playing for the prize; similar to what the NFL had in the 1990s. 

What are your thoughts/  Why do you think we have had so many playoff upsets and so many unlikely Super Bowl participants in recent years?  Do you see that trend continuing or do you think that is life in today's NFL?  Let me know your thoughts.

 

If you enjoyed this article go to www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com to check out other great NFL and Fantasy Football articles.

I present to you my third letter of the playoffs. I will not only look at all the playoff games, but I'll talk about some stories emerging from the franchises that either didn't make the playoffs or are no longer in the playoffs.  I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of Week Seventeen.

Standings: Click Here to View the NFL Standings

MVP of the Week:  In the NFC Championship it had to be Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald.  Warner had 279 yards passing, four touchdowns, zero picks, and a QB rating of 145.7.  Fitzgerald was his main target accounting for nine catches, 152 yards, and three touchdowns.   In the AFC Championship Game Ben Roethlisberger was huge throwing for 255 yards and zero picks.  Troy Palamalu had the biggest play of the fourth quarter when he returned an interception 40 yards for a touchdown.  That gave Pittsburgh a 23-14 lead.

Loser of the Week: In the NFC Championship Game it had to be the Philadelphia pass defense.  After dominating T. Jackson and E. Manning in the first two games the Eagles pass defense was nonexistent for most of the game.  With the exception of third quarter Arizona moved the ball at will.  In the AFC Championship Game it would have to be Joe Flacco.  He threw three picks and was for the most part completely ineffective.  He needed to play his best game of the season for the Ravens to win.  He came up short.  Still, he is only a rookie and that is as tough of a defense as he will ever face.  The future looks very bright for the Ravens.   He should get future opportunities to redeem himself.

Game of the Week: The NFC Championship Game is another instant classic.  The Cardinals led 24-6 before surrendering 19 unanswered points.  Warner led an epic 4th quarter drive that gave the Cardinals the 32-25 lead and their first Super Bowl appearance in franchise history.  The AFC Championship was very good too, but I'd give the edge to the NFC game.  

Injury Report: The scariest injury was the Willis McGahee neck injury.  Ryan Clark nailed McGahee and forced a fumble late in the fourth quarter.  Willis McGahee left on a stretcher with extreme neck pain.  It was a very scary injury and we are all hopeful that it isn't as bad as it looked.  

Hines Ward left the game with a knee injury.  Anquan Boldin was limited in the NFC Championship Game.  Both will need the bye week to get healthy.  Both teams will need them to be healthy for the Super Bowl.

Overall Impressions of Championship Weekend:

1) Philadelphia at Arizona - What a run it has been for the Arizona Cardinals.  The team was 7-3 to start the season and had basically clinched the NFC West after the first ten games.  Then they played horrible down the stretch.  They lost 48-20 in Philly on Thanksgiving.  They lost 35-14 at home to Minnesota.  Then they played an awful game in New England, losing that game 47-7.  The Giants showed us that momentum means everything in the playoffs last year.  The Cardinals showed us it doesn't matter this year.  With the way they ended the season no one thought they would host a NFC Championship Game.  No one thought they could go to the Super Bowl.  Congratulations on a job well done.  

That game was a legacy maker for two Arizona players.  I believe Kurt Warner is now a Hall of Famer, regardless of what he does in the Super Bowl in two weeks.  He is now making his third Super Bowl appearance with his second team.  If he wins he will be the only starting quarterback in NFL history with a ring from two different franchises.  The only quarterbacks to make three Super Bowl appearances as the starting QB are Aikman (3), Bradshaw (4), Brady (4), Elway (5), Kelly (4), Montana (4), Staubach (4), and Tarkenton (3).   All of them are in the Hall of Fame.  Warner's 93.8-career QB rating is third highest in NFL history for quarterbacks with at least 10 years of NFL service.  He has two regular season MVP awards and a Super Bowl MVP award.   He has had a 4,800-yard passing season and 40-touchdown pass season.  The only other players that have done that are Brady and Marino.  

He's a little light in career numbers with 28,591 passing yards and 182 career touchdowns.  On the other hand he has only started 101 career games.  When you are asked to rank the top ten quarterbacks of all time his lack of starts and numbers will severely hurt him.  Still, you don't need to be a top ten quarterback to make the Hall of Fame.  His numbers are very favorable when compared to Troy Aikman.  They are comparable to someone like Roger Staubach, who also got his career started late.  In that case it was a Naval commitment.  I believe with what Warner accomplished in St. Louis and what he has now accomplished in Arizona the last two years he belongs in the Hall of Fame.  

The other legacy that was made was Larry Fitzgerald.  Everyone knew this guy was a great receiver.   He has cemented himself as the premier receiver in the NFL with his playoff run this year.  He set a record for receiving yards in a postseason with 419.  That breaks Jerry Rice's 1988 postseason with 409.  He's one of only three players to have three consecutive 100-yard receiving playoff games and the only one to do it in the same postseason.  He became the third player to record three touchdown catches in a Conference Championship Game, joining Cleveland's Gary Collins (1964) and Preston Pearson (1975).  He's the only one to have them all in one half.

It was a big postseason for Larry Fitzgerald.  It's too early to say he is Canton bound, but as long as he continues to put up big seasons this is the type of postseason that will cement a legacy and make Canton a reality.  It reminds me a lot of Steve Smith's run in the 2003 playoffs.  Everyone knew the guy was the real deal and he exploded on the biggest stage.  Fitzgerald has 23 catches for 419 yards and five touchdowns is a historic postseason that will be talked about forever.  If he can play big in the Super Bowl his postseason stock will only continue to grow.

As for the Philadelphia Eagles.  This was a major disappointment on so many levels.  Some people are going to blame McNabb.  McNabb does deserve his share of the blame.  But, he wasn't the reason they were here in the first place.  The reason this team was here was because of the pass defense that shutdown the Vikings and Giants.  They were completely outclassed in this game.  In the first meeting they held Fitzgerald to five catches for 65 yards and two touchdowns.  Warner had a 65.7 QB rating with three touchdowns and three picks.   They had no answer for Warner and Fitzgerald.  That is why they ultimately lost this game.  

Brian Westbrook was also disappointing.  He had four touchdowns in the first meeting.  He was held to 45 yards rushing, 23 yards receiving, and zero touchdowns.  Yes, he was hurt, but they just didn't get enough from the running back position.  Akers was also terrible.  The normally reliable kicker missed an extra point and a field goal.  

There was also the no call possible interference call on fourth and ten late in the fourth quarter.  I don't want to hear about it.  If the official throws the flag he's deciding the game.  If he doesn't he's deciding the game.  There was contact, but it looked incidental.  Curtis still had a chance to make the play and didn't come through.  It was close, but I thought it was a good no call.  The contact appeared to be incidental.

Here is where the blame falls on McNabb.  It can be hard to blame a guy who throws three touchdowns, 375 passing yards, and posts a 97.4 QB rating with no help from his running game.  The problem with McNabb is the problem that has plagued him his entire career.  He just isn't accurate enough.  He went 28 for 47, which is a 59.6 completion percentage.  In a short throw West Coast offense that is not acceptable.  

He was overthrowing guys and throwing behind guys.  He played a terrible first half and that played a big role in the 24-6 deficit.  Give him credit for getting hot and getting the lead back.  He made some great plays in the third quarter.  But with the game on the line you saw why Warner is a Hall of Famer.  You saw McNabb throwing behind receivers.  That is one reason they had only 25 points and not the 48 points they scored in the regular season meeting.

He is just not accurate enough for the West Coast Offense.  He never has been.  In a game where his team wasn't on it's A game a Hall of Fame quarterback puts the team on his shoulders. By the time he started making plays they were down by 18 points.  You should be able to give him credit for the great second half he had, while also giving him blame for the bad first half.  

Inconsistency and poor accuracy is one reason he is 1-4 in the NFC title game.  The only time he got over 60 percent completion percentage in a title game was in 2004 when he completed 65.4 percent of his passes in the NFC Championship Game.  It's no coincidence that was also the year the Eagles went to the Super Bowl.  

It was a good season for Philadelphia a team that after the Baltimore game looked like it was heading for rebuilding.  They rebounded nicely and had a good playoff run.  Arizona is a good team, but this was another lost opportunity for the Eagles.  You have to find a way to win that game.  Philadelphia has to find more quality targets for McNabb to throw the ball to and they need to get a power running back so that they can convert short runs and goal line touchdowns.  You have to wonder how many runs this team has left in it with Reid, Johnson, McNabb, and Westbrook.  

2) Baltimore at Pittsburgh - The Pittsburgh Steelers are one of the scariest defenses you will ever see.  They are so fast at linebacker.  They cover the receivers well.  They put pressure on the quarterback.  There just isn't anything they can't stop.  Woodley, Harrison, and Polamalu are premier defensive players that make plays all over the field.  

The Ravens though are just as scary.   Ray Lewis and Ed Reed are as fine of players as you will ever see.  Terrell Suggs had a couple sacks despite a shoulder injury.  I've never scene two units that mirror each other to that degree.  I really can't decide which unit I would rather have.

The difference between these two teams was the offenses, in particular at quarterback.  Joe Flacco is a rookie.  In the three losses to the Steelers he had one touchdown and five picks.  In the three wins against the Ravens Big Ben had three touchdowns and one pick.  Big Ben didn't tear the Baltimore defense apart.  What he did do is not make many mistakes.  Part of that has to do with experience.  Roethlisberger may not have had his best season in 2008, but his experience in the playoffs was huge.  He made the plays they needed when they needed them.  He didn't make the costly mistakes that would have knocked them out.  He reminds me a lot of Troy Aikman.  He doesn't necessarily put up the biggest numbers year in and year out, but he does what the team needs him to do to win the big games.  

Big Ben has a big chance in front of him.  He played awful in his first Super Bowl, which was only his second year in the NFL.  The Steelers won that game despite 123 yards passing, two picks, and a 22.6 QB rating.  He is now going up against a future Hall of Fame QB in Kurt Warner.  This is a big chance for him to redeem himself and play big on the biggest stage.  At the end of the day winning is all that matters.  But if Big Ben is going to want to be considered among the elite quarterbacks in the NFL he needs to have a signature game on this stage.  Otherwise the defense will continue to get most of the credit and he will be viewed as a postseason game manager.  

The other difference between the teams is the playmakers.  The Steelers have accumulated quite a cast of skill position players.  Parker is reliable running the ball.  Mewelde Moore is good at catching passes and spelling Parker.  Ward, Holmes, Washington, and Miller are all capable of making big plays in the passing game.  The have killer speed.  It's impossible to single one player out, because at any time one player can kill you.  Santonio Holmes really redeemed himself in these playoffs.  After a poor season he had the big punt return in the Divisional Round and took a 65-yard pass for a touchdown in the Championship.  

The Ravens also have good skill players.  What they lack is explosiveness.  Their longest run was 16 yards on a reverse to Clayton.  Their longest pass play was 22 yards.  It's just impossible to go 15 plays against defenses of the Steelers' caliber.  The Steelers longest run was seven yards.  But they got a 65-yard play to Holmes, a 45-yard play to Ward, a 30-yard play to Miller, and a 20-yard play to Carey Davis.  The big plays were the difference in the game.  

As for the Ravens.  This was a nice bounce back year.  This is the best playoff run they have had since their 2000 Super Bowl Championship.  They have a rookie quarterback that is showing a lot of promise.  The future looks bright.  

The one concern is that they have ten players with ten plus years of NFL experience.  M. Stover, L. Neal, W. Anderson, R. Lewis, T Pryce, D. Mason, S. Rolle, C. McAllister.  They are all key players that are over 30 years old.  While they didn't show their age this year you wonder when that will start to happen.  Teams can go from a veteran team to an old team very quickly.  

The challenge is going to be to keep adding youth on the defensive side of the ball while trying to get some more explosive playmakers on the offensive side of the ball.  As long as they have this defense playing at this level they will be able to compete.  The problem is they will have a hard time beating the Steelers, who are just as ferocious on the defensive side of the ball, but have more offensive explosiveness.  Until they get that resolved they will be the second best team in this AFC North.  They will continue to struggle to advance to the Super Bowl.

Here are three other stories not related to the playoffs that made some news this week.    

3) Jon Gruden's Legacy - I don't think there has ever been a season where so many Super Bowl winning coaches are leaving their teams.  In the case of Dungy and Holmgren it was retiring.  I the case of Shanahan and Gruden it is the team deciding to go in a different direction for 32-year old assistant coaches.  

Many people think of Gruden as being too young to have a legacy.  Despite being only 45 years old, he has been in the NFL as an assistant or head coach since 1990.  That's 18 years of NFL experience.  He has been a Head Coach since 1998.  Compare that to Dungy, a person everyone believes has a legacy.  Dungy has been a Head Coach since 1996.  So even though Gruden has a lot of coaching left to do, he has already built an impressive coaching resume despite only being 45-years old.  

Gruden helped turn the Oakland Raiders around.  When you look at where that team is today that is pretty impressive.  Prior to his arrival in 1998 the Raiders had been out of the playoff hunt since 1993.  Mike White was a failure.  Joe Bugel lasted only one year thanks to a 4-12 record.  

Gruden guided the Raiders to 8-8 records in 1998 and 1999.  He brought in veterans like Rich Gannon; guys that could help him win now and were perfectly suited for his system.  By 2000 he had them in the AFC Championship Game.  They lost to eventual champion Baltimore.  In 2001 he brought in Jerry Rice.  They lost in the Divisional Round to the eventual Champion New England Patriots in the famous Tuck Rule Game.  He would then go to Tampa Bay.  

Tampa Bay was a team that many people believed would never get over the hump.  Tony Dungy had teamed with Monte Kiffin to form one of the NFL's best defenses.  The problem is that the offense could never get the team hold up its end of the bargain.  Dungy was viewed as a great person and motivator that many people thought was too nice to hoist the sport's most prized trophy.    

Jon Gruden retained Kiffin to run the defense and brought in his West Coast Offense.  Just like Rich Gannon, Brad Johnson excelled in that offense throwing for 3,049 yards, 22 touchdowns, and 6 picks in 2002.   The Buccaneers finally advanced to the Super Bowl where they met Gruden's old team, Oakland.  The Buccaneers knew everything that was coming their way.  They dominated 48-21, thanks to five Rich Gannon interceptions, three of which were returned for touchdowns.  Gruden cemented himself as the premier young coach in the game, winning the Super Bowl at the age of 39.

Gruden just wasn't able to do much after that.  The Buccaneers would go just 45-51 the next six seasons.  They won the division twice and missed the playoffs four times.  The year after winning the Super Bowl they went just 7-9 and dipped to 5-11 the following year.  They were 0-2 in the playoffs after their Super Bowl run with both losses coming at home.  Compounding that, they started the 2008 season 9-3.  They lost their last four games, including a season ending loss to Oakland.  The result was no playoffs.  That is a six-year run that is going to result in a head coach losing his job.  It's a "What Have You Done For Me Lately" League.  Gruden hasn't done a lot since 2002.

Gruden was just never able to replace Brad Johnson at quarterback.  They tried going with Brian Griese in 2004.  They went to Chris Simms.  He led the Buccaneers to the playoffs in 2005.  However, injuries and a lack of Gruden confidence prevented him from going much further.  Gruden began stockpiling quarterbacks.  Bruce Gradkowski, Tim Rattay, Jake Plummer, Jeff Garcia.  The list goes on and on.  Garcia led the Buccaneers to the playoffs in 2007.   The Giants knocked them out in the first round.  He is going to be 39-years old this season.  The Buccaneers are an offense without a future.

Since Gruden came to the Buccaneers in 2002 the Buccaneers never ranked higher than 18th in points scored.  They ranked in the top 10 in yards only one time, finishing 10th in 2003.  This is a team that was carried by the defense for most of Gruden's run.  That was a unit that was run by Monte Kiffin.  

All and all Gruden had a pretty successful run in Tampa Bay.  He was brought in to get an underachieving playoff team over the top and he did that in his first year.  He had a winning record four times in seven seasons.  When you consider where Tampa Bay was as a franchise prior to 1996 it was a very productive run.  It was well worth their while to hire him.

What is more puzzling about this is not the firing, but the timing and the new hire.  I'll get into the hiring of Raheem Morris in my discussion about the new hires.  What is confusing is that they would feel the need to replace a Super Bowl winning coach three weeks after the end of the regular season for a guy that is 32 years old and has been a coordinator for one season.  He was the defensive coordinator in 2006 for the 7-6 Kansas State Wildcats.  

Jon Gruden will get another shot in the NFL.  Whether that will be this year or next year someone is going to give this guy another shot.  He is only 45 years old and has a wealth of coaching experience.  He has been very successful everywhere he has gone.  The Buccaneers many not have had as much success as they had hoped for the last six seasons, but what they did have is one of the most intense and most prepared head coaches in the NFL.   Morris is going to have some big shoes to fill in Tampa Bay.

4) Are Coordinators with no NFL head coaching experience really that successful? - The new trend in the NFL has been to hire coordinators with no head coaching experience in lieu of going for the proven NFL coach.  That got me thinking.  How have these coordinators done over the years?  These are the hires since 2003 in the NFL that involved coordinators or college coaches with no NFL Head Coaching experience:  

2003: Marvin Lewis (Bengals), Jack Del Rio (Jaguars), Bill Callahan (Raiders)

2004: Mike Mularkey (Bills), Lovie Smith (Bears), Jim Mora (Falcons),

2005: Nick Saben (Dolphins), Romeo Crennel (Browns), Mike Nolan (49ers)

2006: Eric Mangini (Jets), Gary Kubiak (Texans), Mike McCarthy (Packers), Brad Childress (Vikings), Rod Marinelli (Lions), Sean Payton (Saints), Scott Linehan (Rams)

2007: Cam Cameron (Dolphins), Mike Tomlin (Steelers), Lane Kiffin (Raiders), Bobby Petrino (Falcons), Ken Wisenhunt (Cardinals)

2008:  Tony Sparano (Dolphins), John Harbaugh (Ravens), Jim Zorn (Redskins), and Mike Smith (Falcons).  Mike Singletary and Tom Cable took over the 49ers and Raiders midseason with no coaching experience.  Singletary has been retained.  Tom Cable appears to be a front-runner, but you never know with Al Davis.

There are a couple things to take from this list.  

a) Only 9 of the 21 (excludes the 2008 class) are still with the team that hired them.  That's a mere 43 percent.  Eric Mangini was fired by the Jets, but has since been rehired by the Browns.  When you consider that only goes six seasons back, that isn't a very good ratio.
b) Until this year Lovie Smith is the only coach that led his team to a Super Bowl.  Now Tomlin and Wisenhunt have joined him.  Mike McCarthy and Sean Payton coached in Conference Championship Games.  

b) You could argue coaches with experience have had much more success in recent years.  Bill Belichick had coached the Cleveland Browns before being hired by the Patriots in 2000.  He has won three Super Bowls and appeared in four.  Tony Dungy was the Buccaneers coach before going to Indy in 2002.  He set an NFL record by winning at least 12 games every year from 2003-2008 and won the Super Bowl in 2006.  Jon Gruden came from Oakland to replace Dungy in Tampa Bay in 2002.  He won the Super Bowl in his first season there.  Tom Caughlin had a successful run in Jacksonville.  He was hired by the Giants and won a Super Bowl for them in 2007.  The Steelers could have gotten impatient with Bill Cowher and gone after the next big assistant in 2003 after a 6-10 season.  Their loyalty paid off with a Super Bowl ring in 2005.  

c) The only two coordinators in recent memory that won right away were George Seifert and Brian Billick.  Seifert took over for Bill Walsh and took over one of the best teams in NFL history.  The 1989 49ers went 14-2 and won the Super Bowl.  Billick was hired in 1999.  In 2000 he went 12-4 and then went 4-0 in the Super Bowl.   It was a very quick and very surprising turnaround.

Until this year most of the coaches that have won Super Bowls in the last 20 years have been veteran coaches that were either on their second job or had been in their first job for a number of years.  They had failures in the playoffs prior to their Super Bowl titles. Wisehnunt took over a program that had one winning season in twenty years.  If he wins the Super Bowl he goes into the Billick category.  Tomlin is more like Seifert.  The Steelers won the Super Bowl in 2005.  The Steelers weren't exactly the 1989 49ers, but he stepped into a great situation with a team that was ready to win now.

I'm not against hiring coordinators.  It is frustrating to see guys like Norv Turner and Dennis Erickson get multiple opportunities to screw up franchises.  Turner has had very mixed success, but has coached three teams.  Even though San Diego won the division the last two years, that team has underachieved and been inconsistent.  Erickson did terrible in Seattle and got a second chance to do terrible in San Francisco.  I get sick of seeing the same retreads get jobs in new cities.  

That said, I think the NFL is going overboard.  Super Bowl winning coaches like Brian Billick, Mike Shanahan, and Jon Gruden are not employed and guys like Jim Fassel that coached the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2000 can't get consideration for another job even though he desperately wants to return to the NFL.

Finding a good coordinator with new ideas can help turn a franchise around, but there is stillroom in this league for experienced minds.  Teams like Detroit, Cincinnati, and Oakland aren't losing because simply because they haven't found the right coordinator.  They have bad owners, front offices, and players.  Many of these teams that have found their young Einstein will be looking for the next bright mind in a few seasons, because they aren't addressing their other shortcomings.  As long as they have bad front offices and bad players it isn't going to matter who they bring in.  The face may change, but the results will remain the same.  

5) New Coaching Hires - Here's my take on the new hires since I wrote my newsletter last week.

a) Jim Caldwell (Colts) - This is a good hire.  You have a 54-year-old assistant that has been coaching since the last 1970s.  He's been in the NFL since 2001.  He has been with the Colts since Dungy was hired in 2002.  They have been grooming him as Dungy's successor for a couple years.  Replacing Tony Dungy is a near impossible task.  The Colts handled that as well as they could.  

Sometimes these moves don't go according to plan.  Have you ever heard of Phil Bengston?  He's the coach that went 21-25-1 trying to replace Vince Lombardi.  Have you ever heard of Ray Handley?  He's the guy that replaced Bill Parcells and went 14-18 in two seasons.  Perhaps Richie Petitbon rings a bell?  He went 4-12 replacing Joe Gibbs in Washington.  

All three of those teams made the playoffs the year prior to those assistants taking over.  The Packers and Giants were defending Super Bowl Champions.  The Redskins were a year removed from the playoffs and lost in the Divisional Round in 1992.  All of them missed the playoffs with their experienced successors. Just because you have respected assistants on a staff doesn't mean they keep the good times rolling as the new head coach.  

Jim Caldwell has an advantage.  Bart Starr was on the decline in his career.  Handley had a QB controversy with Simms and Hostetler.  Petitbon had Mark Rypein entering the portion of his career where he collapsed.  Caldwell shouldn't have that problem.  He is inheriting Peyton Manning in his prime.

Coaches have failed with that too.  Wade Phillips took over in Denver for Dan Reeves.  Phillips was promoted from Reeve's staff.  He was the defensive coordinator.  Elway was 33 years old.  Phillips went 16-16 and 0-1 in the playoffs.  Having a Hall of Fame quarterback does not guarantee instant success.

The Colts have to figure out a way to repair a running game that ranked 31st in the NFL.  They need to repair a run defense that ranked 24th.  The offensive line needs to be upgraded.  Finally, they have to figure out what to do with Marvin Harrison.  Is Anthony Gonzalez his replacement?

This isn't an easy division.  The combined score of Indy's six divisional games was 161-132.  If you eliminate that final Titans regular season game where both team's starters sat it was 138-132.   Indy isn't dominating this division like they were in 2004 and 2005.

We'll see how this team responds in 2009.  Everything considered, this was handled well and the Colts have done everything in their power to have a smooth transition.  At the moment they appear to have the pieces to contend for a few years, so long as they are smart in free agency and the draft and Caldwell has the personality and leadership abilities to lead this team.

b) Raheem Morris (Bucs) - Jon Gruden is a Super Bowl winning coach.  He has made the playoffs five times in 11 NFL seasons.  He has had a losing record only three times.  So you fire him to hire a guy that is 32 years old and has been a defensive coordinator for one season, back in 2006 with 7-6 Kansas State?  This guy has been an assistant in the NFL for a total of five seasons, none of which has been as a coordinator.

Gruden was also young when he took over the Raiders.  He was 35 years old when he took over the Raiders and was a pioneer for the young guys looking for head coaching jobs.  People forget that he had been coaching for eight years in the NFL when he was hired and had been Philly's offensive coordinator for the three prior seasons.  His teams were consistently in the playoffs.  His claim to fame was not Kansas State defensive coordinator.  

It's just a confusing move.  They fired Gruden and hired Morris within one day.  Is Morris really that good of a candidate that you aren't going to interview anyone?  I understand Morris is a black candidate and the purpose of the Rooney Rule is to get more minority hiring.  There should still have to be an interview process.

The problem is what about the other minorities that didn't get a chance to interview for that job?  Is anyone going to argue Morris was the most qualified black candidate for that job?  Is he even close to the most qualified? Why should more qualified minority candidates not be afforded the chance to interview for the job?  Isn't the goal to award jobs to the most qualified people?

If you are going to have a Rooney Rule it should apply to every job opening, not just the places that want to consider white candidates.  Maybe Morris is the next Shula or Lombardi.  Then he should have no problem surviving an interview process in which he is viewed as a front runner.  

I understand not applying the rule in certain situations.  The 49ers should hot have had to conduct an interview.  They promoted an interim coach in Mike Singeltary.  Mike Nolan was a disaster.  Singletary did wonders with that team.  It undermines his authority with the team if he has to interview for a job that he earned with his performance during the regular season.  That makes sense to me.  

While I'm not a fan of planned succession moves like Seattle had for Mora replacing Holmgren or the Colts had with Caldwell replacing Dungy; I get it.  I see some logic in having a succession plan for replacing a legendary coach.  The franchise can make an argument that losing a guy like that is traumatic enough on the organization.  Having a planned successor helps in that difficult transition.

This situation wasn't like either of those and I disagree with the Rooney Rule in this situation.  The Diversity Committee really needs to take a look at changing the provision that allows teams to not have an interview process if the team is hiring a minority candidate.  There is no way that a 32-year old person with no head coaching or coordinating experience in the NFL should get a job without having to interview against other candidates.  It isn't fair to the more qualified candidates that are scrambling to find jobs.

c) Steve Spagnolo (Rams) - I love this hire.  The Rams got one right.  Their defense has been a problem since 2001.  The only time they cracked the top 20 in scoring defense was 2002.  They have finished 31st, 28th, 31st, and 31st in scoring defense the last four years.  You can't win with that no matter how explosive your offense.  

Steve Spagnolo has a lot of good experience.  He helped lead the Giants to the Super Bowl in 2007.  Despite losing Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora, Gibril Wilson, Kawika Mitchell, and Reggie Torbor from his defense the Giants ranked fifth in points allowed and fifth in yards allowed.  That shows me that he has a good system in place and isn't depending on certain players to win games.  He actually had an improvement in the team's defensive numbers from what they did in 2007 despite losing all those players.  

St. Louis is a big mess.  They have very little going for them on defense.  They need to rebuild the offensive line.  Bulger is at a crossroads in his career.  Steven Jackson is hurt too much.  Torry Holt appears to be in decline.  Not only is he going to have to retool the defense, but he is also going to have to make a lot of decisions on offense.  He is not stepping into an easy situation.  

Since The Greatest Show on Turf came to be in 1999 the Rams have stressed offense.  Vermeil is an offensive minded coach.  Mike Martz doesn't even know what the defense does.  Scott Linehan was an offensive coordinator.  The Rams finally hired a guy with a great defensive track record to rebuild the mess that is that defense.  They need to stay patient with him, as it is going to take two to three years to rebuild all the problems on that team.  This is not a quick fix.  If they give him the time and resources he has an excellent chance to turn this around.  This makes a lot of sense.  It's a great hire by the Rams.  

d) Jim Schwartz (Lions) - I have nothing against Jim Schwartz.  He may very well end up being a successful head coach.  I just think it's a good candidate for the wrong job.  

The Detroit Lions continue to make the same mistakes.  Martin Mayhew was hired as the GM.  He is a former NFL player whose only front office experience was with Matt Millen.  If you hire a person with no prior GM experience that learned from one of the worst GM's in NFL history than you need to bring in a veteran head coach.  It is almost the same mistake the Lions made when they brought in Millen and Mornhinweg back in 2001.  

Now you have a rookie head coach and a GM with front office experience that is serving as a GM for the first time.  It's another disaster just waiting to happen.  Jim Schwartz has been the Titans defensive coordinator since 2001.  They have finished 25th in scoring defense or worse four times in those eight years.  2007 and 2008 are the first times the Titans cracked the top 10 in both scoring defense and yards allowed since he took over that job.  

When the Titans had bad players he was a bad coordinator.  That is what is going to happen in Detroit.  He has nothing to work with on defense.  Unless Albert Haynesworth is going to follow him to Detroit he's going to have the same problems he had in Tennessee from 2004-2006.  Those defenses were terrible and ranked at the bottom of the NFL.

Like I said, we haven't seen him be a head coach before and Mayhew may have learned what not to do from Millen.  I'm not saying this can't work.  What I am saying is this has the ingredients to be another disaster for the Motor City.  Until they start doing things the right way they are going to have to hope they stumble into something good.  We'll see if they did that.  

A Look Ahead:

Street Cred's 2008 Playoff Record: 4-6

Congratulations to the Steelers and the Cardinals for advancing to the Super Bowl.  After going 0-4 last week I rebounded to go 1-1.  Here is how I see the Super Bowl going.

Arizona (12-7) at Pittsburgh (14-4) - This is one of the most interesting Super Bowls in terms of the coaching match ups.  When Bill Cowher retired in 2006 the Steelers had a fascinating choice.  They had to choose between Ken Whisenhunt and Russ Grimm.  Both seemed like capable candidates.  Grimm had been with the Steelers since 2000.  Whisenhunt had been with the team since 2001.  They chose neither, instead going for Mike Tomlin who had been a NFL assistant since 2000 and only had one year of defensive coordinator experience with Minnesota.  He was just 35 years old.  Whisenhunt and Grimm left for the Desert.  Now just two seasons later the two coaching staffs square off in the Super Bowl.  

This is a pretty tough game to pick.  People are going to dismiss the Cardinals as being a Cinderella story with a midnight fast approaching.  The Steelers are one of the most popular franchises in the NFL with a 5-1 record in the Super Bowl.  The Cardinals are in their first Super Bowl.  Anyone that thinks Arizona can't win this game is kidding himself or herself.  They beat 11-5 Atlanta, 12-4 Carolina in Carolina, and 9-6-1 Philadelphia.  They were picked to lose all three games.  Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald are as dangerous as any duo in the NFL.  Edge James is running well.  The defense is making plays.  This team is dangerous and fully capable of winning.  In fact they beat the Steelers 21-14 just a season ago.  

The fact is that Pittsburgh's defense is as scary as any defense that has taken the field in the last 30 years.  They stop the run.  They stop the pass.  They pressure the quarterback.  They force turnovers.  Warner did a great job of picking up the Philly blitz.  He's going to have to take it to another level.  One thing that helps is that Dick LeBau was the defensive coordinator when Whisenhunt and Grimm were in Pittsburgh.  They are going to know as well as anyone what he likes to do on defense.  Tomlin doesn't have a similar advantage, because he has never worked with the Arizona coaching staff, although his players and assistants have.  

What it means is you are going to have two teams that are very familiar with each other.  The key for the Steelers is going to be to stop Warner and Fitzgerald.  If any defense can contain the Arizona passing attack it's the Steelers.  The key for the Cardinals is going to be to protect Warner.  If he is getting hit the whole game he is going to fumble and force throws that result in picks.  They need to do that by picking up blitzes and running the football well.   That is something I don't think they are going to be able to do against Pittsburgh.  I like the Steelers to win, but I think it will be a close game.  
Winner:  Pittsburgh 27 Arizona 17

That's all for this week.  I look forward to reading your comments this week.  Let the Super Bowl hype begin.

Every year the NFL Hall of Fame voting creates some controversy about which players deserve induction and which players don't.  The fact is that there are more deserving players than spots each year.  There is always going to be some players left holding the short end of the stick.  With the number of teams and quality players in the NFL today the task is only going to get harder.

However, there are some players that have waited long enough and deserve induction.  These are ten players that have not been inducted in their first year of eligibility.  These are players I would be making a case for if I had a vote for the Hall of Fame.  I listed the team that they are most famous for playing for. 

1) Chris Carter (Vikings) - I think the Hall will get this one right this year.  If they don't everyone that is not voting for this guy should have their voting privileges revoked.  Chris Carter is an eight time Pro Bowl Selection.  They were all consecutive appearances between 1993 and 2000.  He made the All-Pro first team twice.  He was selected to the All 90s team by the same people that vote for induction into the Hall of Fame.  He currently ranks third in career receptions, seventh in career receiving yards, and fourth in career receiving touchdowns.

In addition to great career ranks he has some amazing individual season achievements.  In 1995 he recorded 17 receiving touchdowns.  In 1994 he had 122 receptions, a feat he duplicated in 1995.  Those two seasons rank third in receptions in a single NFL season. 

The knock on him is a 4-10 career postseason record and no Super Bowl appearances.   The other knock is going to be a cocaine addiction that got him booted out of Philly.  First, unlike most athletes today, he learned from his mistake and turned into a model citizen.  He was the 1999 Walter Payton Man of the Year.  That should not be held against him.  Second, two of those playoff losses were in Philly before he was a star.   His problem with the Vikings was playing on the fourth best team in the NFC of the 1990s.  The Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers, and Green Bay Packers represented the NFC in the Super Bowl six times in the 1990s and won the Super Bowl five times.   No one receiver could have overcome that.  In six of his eight playoff losses with the Vikings they allowed over 30 points.  He would have had to have 200 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns for the Vikings to have won most of those games. 

The amazing part of his career is that he ranks so high in those career numbers without playing with the same quarterback.  He caught passes from Rich Gannon, Wade Wilson, Sean Salisbury, Jim McMahon, Warren Moon, Randall Cunningham, Jeff George, and Daunte Culpepper.  This isn't Jerry Rice playing with Montana and Young or Harrison playing with Peyton Manning.  For him to do what he did playing with that many quarterbacks is a testament to his abilities.  Some of the best hands and footwork I ever saw.  He should have been a first ballot Hall of Famer.  If they don't get this right in 2009 it doesn't speak very highly for the process. 

Career Numbers:  234 games, 1,101 receptions, 13,899 receiving yards, 12.6 ypc, 130 TD catches

02) Randall McDaniel (Vikings) - Does the Hall have something against Vikings?  I was born and still am a Packer fan and even I can see these guys deserve to be in the Hall of Fame.  The guy made 12 Pro Bowls (every year from 1989-2000) and seven All-Pro first teams.  He was one of he finest offensive lineman the NFL ever saw.  He was a member of the All 90's Team.  The guy was durable starting 16 games every year from 1990 to 2001.  Where is the love?

I don't even really need to make a big case for the guy.  He was durable, he was dominant, and he did it for a long time.  That's the definition of a Hall of Famer.  I understand the lineman don't get a lot of respect and guards get even less than the offensive tackles that get credit for protecting the quarterback.  There is no reason this guy should not have been a first ballot Hall of Fame player.  The voters need to rectify that this year. 

Career Numbers:  222 games played, 12 Pro Bowls

03) Derrick Thomas (Chiefs) - Derrick Thomas was basically Lawrence Taylor reborn.  He was that good.  He was so quick and so fast that there just wasn't anyway to guard him.  He could play the defensive end or move to linebacker.   Thomas had 126.5 sacks in just 169 career games.  He never had less than seven sacks in a season.  He was the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1989.  He made the Pro Bowl every year from 1989 to 1997, which is a total of nine Pro Bowls.  Thomas also made the All Pro first team twice and the second team three times.   Thomas and Neil Smith formed one of the most intimidating pass rushes the NFL ever saw from 1989 to 1996.  Finally, Thomas was voted by the Hall of Fame voters to the 1990's All Decade Team.

Derrick Thomas had his best year in 1990.  He finished the season with 20 sacks, including a NFL record seven sacks in a game against Seattle.   He is one of seventeen players that is tied for third in league history with three career safeties.  He ranks 11th in NFL history in sacks, despite not playing past the age of  32 years old.   He also is the NFL record holder for career forced fumbles with 41. 

I think there are a number of reasons he has not yet made Canton.  On January 23, 2000, Thomas was involved in a very serious car accident.  One of his passengers was killed.  Thomas died of medical complications from the accident less than a month later.   With so many players worthy of induction it's a little easier to wait until next year for a player that is deceased.  While it isn't the major reason he hasn't been inducted into Canton, it can't help that he is not here to voice his case. 

Second, the Kansas City Chiefs were a fantastic regular season team, but failed to do much in he playoffs.  From 1989 to 1998 the Chiefs went 101-58-1 in the regular season under Marty Schottenheimer.  Once the playoffs came they were just 3-7 and played in only one AFC Championship Game.  That lack of postseason success leaves Thomas without a defining playoff moment like Lawrence Taylor had in the 1986 season when he won the MVP and led his team to a Super Bowl victory. 

Still, a lot of those problems were not Derrick Thomas's fault.  In the 1997 playoffs they lost to Denver 14-10.  In the 1995 playoffs they lost to Indianapolis 10-7.  Pretty hard to blame the defense for those losses.  In those 10 playoff games the Chiefs allowed over 30 points just twice and allowed 20 points or less six times.  You should do better than 3-7 with a defense like that. 

All and all Derrick Thomas had a wonderful career.  He was one of the most feared defenders of the 1990s.  He should have been inducted into the Hall of Fame in his first year of eligibility.  It is time for the Hall to get this one right so that his family can celebrate his fantastic NFL career.   

Career Numbers: 169 games 126.5 sacks, 41 forced fumbles, 601 tackles 

04) Richard Dent (Bears) - Richard Dent in his prime was one of the scariest defensive players the NFL ever saw.  He recorded eight seasons with 10 plus sacks.  In 1984 he recorded 17.5 sacks.  He followed that up in 1985 with 17 sacks.  He is one of only eight defensive players to win the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award.  He forced two fumbles in that game and had two sacks in that game.

Part of his problem is that he stuck around too long.  He played for four different teams from 1994 to 1997 and recorded a total of 13 sacks those four seasons.   Voters got to see him as an average player for too long.  The other thing that hurts him is there were a lot of Hall of Famers on his Bears teams.  Walter Peyton,  Mike Singletary, and Dan Hampton are already in the Hall of Fame.  That's quite a few for a team that won only one Super Bowl. 

Richard Dent deserves to be in the Hall of Fame.  He was one of the most feared defensive ends in the NFL.  When teams played the Chicago Bears he had to be accounted for on every play.   He ranks 6th in NFL history with 137.5 sacks.  While he was not a member of the All 1980's team as selected by the Hall of Fame voters there were only four spots.  Reggie White, Howie Long, and LeRoy Selmon are all  in the Hall of Fame.  Bruce Smith was the other defensive end and he should be inducted this year.     That's a pretty tough list to crack.  He was a great player and deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. 

Career Numbers: 203 games, 137.5 sacks, 8 interceptions, 671 tackles

05) Ken Stabler (Raiders) - It is unbelievable that "The Snake" is not in the Hall of Fame.  Kenny Stabler was probably involved in more exciting games than any player in NFL History.  He was the losing quarterback in the Immaculate Reception, which was a 1972 Divisional Round Game.  He was the winning quarterback that threw the pass to Clarence Davis, which became known as the Sea of Hands.  That was a 1974 divisional round game.  He threw the Post to the Ghost to beat the Colts in double OT of the 1977 Divisional Round.  Finally, he was involved in the Holly Roller or the Immaculate Deception (depends if you were a Raider Fan or Charger Fan) that resulted in a rule change that does not allow offensive fumbles to be advanced by other players in the final minutes of a game.  For one player to be involved in that many NFL lore games is unbelievable. 

The Oakland Raiders had a problem similar to the 1990s Minnesota Vikings.  They had very good teams that were trapped in the same conference as Pittsburgh and Miami.  Unlike the 90 Vikings the Raiders played in five consecutive AFC Conference Championships from 1973 to 1977.  Unfortunately they lost four of those five games.  They averaged only 13 points per game in those losses.  But when you consider the level of those defenses I don't think it is anything to be embarrassed about.  The better team won.  The Raiders got their shot in 1976 going 13-1 in the regular season.  They went on to win Stabler's only Super Bowl. 

Stabler has a few things going against him.  He played in an era with three other Hall of Fame Quarterbacks.  Staubach, Bradshaw, and Griese are considered the best quarterbacks of that era.  Second,  he played too long.  He left Oakland after the 1979 season.  He threw only 44 touchdown passes the next five seasons.  Furthermore, the Raiders went on to win the Super Bowl in 1980 and 1983, years when Stabler was still in the NFL.  Therefore, some people associate that with Stabler being the reason those 70s teams didn't advance.  Finally, the 1970's Raiders have a lot of Hall of Famers.  WR Fred Biletnikoff, TE Dave Casper, C Jim Otto, OT Art Shell, OG Gene Upshaw, QB / K George Blanda, CB Willie Brown, LB Ted Hendricks, HC John Madden, and Owner Al Davis are all members of the Hall of Fame.  Does a team with five Hall of Famers on offense deserve a sixth a quarterback no less, when they won only one Super Bowl? 

I say yes.  For as many Hall of Famers as the Raiders have the Steelers have more.  That is who the Raiders kept losing to in the playoffs.  The Raiders, Steelers, and Dolphins were all very talented and the Raiders kept coming out on the short end of the stick, because they didn't play defense or run the ball as well as those teams.  That isn't Stabler's fault.  Stabler made four Pro Bowls and was first team All Pro in 1974.  He led the NFL in touchdown passes twice.  He was in the top five in touchdown passes four times from 1973-1979 and in the top 10 every year.  He was in the top 10 in passing yards every year from 1973 to 1979.  He was very efficient in QB rating, even posting a 103.4 in 1976.  He was usually in the top five in that department as well from 1973 to 1979. 

He started 146 games going 96-49-1 or a .661 winning percentage.   He had a knack for making big plays in the final minutes of games and was one of the most exciting players in the NFL.  People feared playing the Raiders in the final minutes of games, because of the plays he could make.  There should be room in The Hall for Kenny Stabler, even if he didn't have great success in the postseason. 

Career Numbers: 2,270 completions, 3793 attempts,  59.8 comp %,  27,938 yards,  194 TD passes, 222 interceptions, 75.3 QB rating

06) LeRoy Butler (Packers) - Again, I don't understand how you can make an All Decade Team and receive zero consideration for the Hall of Fame.  He isn't even making the finalist portion of the voting.  Butler was a 4-time Pro Bowl selection and a 4-time All Pro selection.  Not only was he recognized as being a good player, but he helped redefine the position.  Prior to Butler most teams used their safeties in coverage either to double team receivers, cover the slot, or cover a tight end.  They would use them in run support.  But rarely did people blitz their safeties, mainly because it was too risky with the vertical passing games.  When the West Coast Offenses became prevalent, teams had to find a way to cover running backs and put additional pressure on the QB.  In 1996 Butler did something pretty amazing.  He was the All-Pro safety, despite recording more sacks (6.5) than interceptions (5.0).  You usually don't see that. 

LeRoy Butler meant a lot to the Packers.  He was a leader of that defense and assumed leadership responsibility when Reggie White left.  He is credited with inventing the Lambeau Leap.  But above all he was a very good football player.  He was not only good at picking the ball with 38 career picks, but he was good at putting pressure on the quarterback with 20.5 sacks.  He was the fist NFL defensive back to eclipse both 20 interceptions and sacks for a career.  He was one of the best safeties in the 90's.

I understand safeties don't get a lot of love in the voting, but this is a guy that deserves more credit for his impressive 12 year career.  LeRoy Butler should join Reggie White in the Hall of Fame as the cornerstone of those impressive 1990's Green Bay Packers defenses. 

Career Numbers: 181 games, 38 interceptions, 20.5 sacks, 721 tackles

07) Dick LeBeau (Lions) - This is a guy that has a couple different claims to getting into the Hall of Fame.  Most people think of him as the talented defensive coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers.  People forget that his 62 career picks rank 7th in NFL history.   He played 185 games in the NFL.  He had at least four interceptions in 11 of his 14 years.  Considering he played in the 1960s when passing was not as prominent as it is today, that's a pretty good career. 

Second, he has been one of the most successful defensive coordinators the NFL has ever seen.  He is the architect of the zone blitzing schemes that many teams use today.  He was the Steelers defensive coordinator from 1992 to 1996 and from 2004 to 2008.  The Steelers have finished in the top 10 in both yards allowed and points allowed all but two seasons.  In 1992 the Steelers finished second in points allowed, but were 13th in yards allowed.  In 2006 they were ninth in yards allowed, but finished 11th in points allowed.  That's a pretty good resume.  He was also an assistant on two Bengals teams that lost in the Super Bowl in the 1981 and 1988 season.  He didn't fare will in a three year stint as Bengals head coach from 2000-2002, but that doesn't diminish what he has meant to the NFL. 

This is a guy that has been involved with the NFL since 1959.  That's 50 years of involvement in the NFL.  What hurts him as a player is that the Detroit Lions were 0-0 in the playoffs during his career.  That's right, not one playoff game.  But when you consider the Packers, Colts, Browns, and Giants dominated that decade that really isn't his fault.   This guy had a great career first as a player and then as a defensive coordinator.  He should be in the Hall of Fame for a lifetime of quality service to the NFL.

Career Numbers:  62 career interceptions, 50 years of NFL Service

08) Jim Marshall  (Vikings) - This is another guy that I don't understand why he can't get in.  The man started 282 consecutive games without missing a start at defensive end.  It's 305 when you include the playoffs.  He was a key component of the Purple People Eaters, a defensive line that featured two other Hall of Famer's (Carl Eller and Allan Page) .  The Vikings credit him with 127 sacks (Marshall played before sacks became an official stat).  He is credited with 29 fumble recoveries. 

He's a little light on the Pro Bowl selections with just two in 1968 and 1969.  It hurts that he played with two other Hall of Fame defensive lineman and came up 0-4 in the Super Bowl.  Again, those failures were in large part due to the offense.  They lost those Super Bowls 23-7, 24-7, 16-6, and 32-14.  You aren't going to win Super Bowls when your offense struggles to get past seven points.   It also hurts that when people think of Jim Marshall, they think of him running the wrong way 66 yards to record a safety for the 49ers back in 1964.  Any credible video with NFL follies is going to have that play.

I see how hard it is for a player to play every game.  I see how hard it is to play in the trenches.  To be able to play for 305 consecutive games without missing a start is unreal.  Think about the publicity Favre has gotten for his streak and that he still is a year away from passing Marshall.  Defensive End is not an easy position.  Those guys take a lot of pounding in the trenches.   The fact that he started every game for the Vikings from 1961 to 1979 is good enough for me.  When you also consider he played on 10 division championship teams with the Vikings and was a team captain there for 17 years, it speak to his abilities and the respect he had on that team.  All of those things  should earn Marshall a place in the Hall of Fame.

Career Numbers: 282 consecutive games started (305 including playoffs), 127 unofficial sacks, 29 fumble recoveries

09) Andre Reed (Bills) - He's very similar to Richard Dent.  The four receivers that made the 1990 All Decade Team were Jerry Rice, Tim Brown, Michael Irvin, and Chris Carter.  Pretty hard to argue with that list.  Andre Reed was correctly left off that team, but he should still be in Canton. 

Andre Reed was a seven time Pro Bowler.  He played on the four Buffalo Bills teams that represented the AFC in the Super Bowl from 1990-1993.  He was a Pro Bowl receiver all four of those seasons.  His 951 receptions are sixth in NFL history.  His receiving yards are 10th and his receiving touchdowns are 11th. 

There are a couple things that hurt him.  Despite playing in a pass friendly offense Reed only topped the 1,000 yard mark four times.  He only reached double digit touchdowns once.  Thurman Thomas was the focal point of this offense and while Reed was a very good player, Thomas was the lead guy.  Second, he's another guy that played at a below average level at the end of his career.  Despite playing until 2000 the last 1,000 yard season he had was in 1996.  He scored two touchdowns his final two seasons in the NFL.

What does it for me with Reed is that he was a weapon that people feared.  You always knew in the playoffs that he was going to come up big.   In that wild playoff game against Houston where the Bills overcame a 35-3 deficit he tallied eight catches for 136 yards and  three touchdowns.  In a 44-34 Divisional Round win over the Dolphins Reed had 4 catches for 123 yards and 2 touchdowns.  It seemed that every time they made a run to the Super Bowl he had one big game that helped get Buffalo over the top.  In 19 career playoff games he went over 100 yards 5 times, despite playing in one of the coldest and frigid environments in the NFL.

That's the key for me.  If this guy had played in a dome, I might not vote for him to get into the Hall of Fame.  He played his entire career in Buffalo.  It can get very cold there, very windy, and very snowy.  That is not an easy stadium to pass the ball in.  For Reed to consistently put up numbers like that in an environment like that is very impressive.  His career should be rewarded with a birth in the Hall of Fame.  

Career Numbers: 234 games, 951 receptions,  13,198 receiving yards, 13.9 ypc, 87 TD catches 

10) Phil Simms (NY Giants) - The 1980s Giants are thought of for their defense and because of that people forget what a good quarterback Phil Simms was and how important he was to the Giants run in the 1980s.  Simms made he Pro Bowl only two times and people associate that with a game manager.  Simms has some pretty good numbers for a game manager.  He ranks 27th in NFL history with 199 touchdown passes.  His 33,462 career passing yards rank 20th in NFL history.  He was basically Troy Aikman before Troy Aikman came along.  He was always between 15-20 touchdown passes, 3,000 to 3,500 passing yards, and a low amount of picks, especially later in his career.  He would hand the ball of to Joe Morris, Otis Anderson, and Rodney Hampton and make the timely throw downfield.  He is still the oldest quarterback to lead his team to the playoffs at age 39.

He was huge in the playoffs.  He threw 4 touchdowns in a 1986 49-3 drubbing of the San Francisco 49ers.  He was 22 for 25 for 268 yards and 3 touchdown in his Super Bowl win.  That 88.0 completion percentage is a Super Bowl record and earned him MVP honors.  He had a 6-4 record in the playoffs.  He led the Giants to a 11-2 start, before being injured in a game against Buffalo in 1990.  That led to Jeff Hostetler taking over as the starter the rest of the way and leading the Giants to a Super Bowl victory.  Simms was having a phenomenal season with 15 touchdowns and just 4 picks when he got hurt.  The Giants would have probably won the Super Bowl with Simms in there too.  That would have helped his case even more.

We have put plenty of game managers into the Hall of Fame.  Troy Aikman and Bart Starr come to mind.  Simms only had one Super Bowl win, which hurts him in that department.  However, when you consider that he was stuck in a conference with Bill Walsh's 49ers, Joe Gibbs Redskins, and Mike Dikta's Bears the Giants needed good quarterback play to guide them to their two Super Bowl victories.  He gave them that.  The NFC was stacked with great teams in the 1980s.  Phil Simms  was a key component to those Giants teams.  He was a big reason the Giants are viewed as champions, unlike the 1980s Eagles who also had a good defense, but an inconsistent offense, and thus a 0-3 playoff record from 1988-1990.  Lawrence Taylor and Bill Parcells were the most important parts, but they don't win their rings without Simms.  He should be in the Hall of Fame.

Career Numbers: 2,576 completions, 4,647 attempts, 55.4 comp %, 33,462 yards, 199 TD passes, 157 interceptions, 78.5 QB rating

That's my list of deserving Hall of Famers that aren't getting a lot of love from the Hall of Fame voters right now.  Do you agree with my list or do you think I reached on some guys?  Who do you think should be in the running?  For all the Ray Guy fans out there understand that I think he was a great player and deserving, but I didn't have he patience to write about a punter.  Let me know the players you think should be in the Hall and make your case.

I present to you my second letter of the playoffs. I will not only look at all the playoff games, but I'll talk about some stories emerging from the franchises that either didn't make the playoffs or are no longer in the playoffs.  I appreciate feedback of things that I failed to mention, but please don't get upset if I don't list something about your favorite player or team. I could do a newsletter for just one team. Trying to mention every team or player in one newsletter would be impossibility. I hereby present to you a recap of Week Seventeen.

Standings: Click Here to View the NFL Standings

MVP of the Week:  I'm going to try to keep these real brief, as there are only 4 playoff games to talk about.  Willie Parker was huge this weekend for the Pittsburgh Steelers.  He had 27 rushes for 146 yards and 2 rushing touchdowns.  Larry Fitzgerald also came up big with 8 catches for 166 yards and 1 touchdown.  Finally, even though his team lost Philip Rivers is quickly establishing himself as the next best quarterback in the NFL.  In a losing effort he went 21 for 35 for 308 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 pick, and a 105.4 rating.  When you consider the Steelers had the best pass defense in the NFL it was another great accomplishment in a breakout year for Rivers.

Loser of the Week: Has to be Jake Delhomme.  He finished with 17 completions in 34 attempts for 205 yards, 1 touchdown, 5 picks, 1 fumble, and a 39.1 QB rating.  It was one of the worst performances in playoff history considering the regular season Carolina had in 2008, their 8-0 home record entering the game, and the pass defense they were going up against.   It will be talked about as one of the worst playoff performances in NFL history.  There is no way getting around that.

Game of the Week:  I'd have to go with the Ravens and the Titans.  I know that was only a 13-10 game, but that was a very close game featuring two of the best defenses in the NFL.  I like good defense.  I can't stand bad offense.  That game was good defense.  The 13-10 game came down to a game winning field goal with just 0:57 seconds remaining.  It was a very intense game that lived up to its smash mouth defensive oriented billing. 

The Bay of Pigs:  I just was not impressed with the Arizona and Carolina game.  Great effort by the Arizona defense and they deserve some of the credit for Carolina looking bad.  But anytime you have 6 turnovers on offense in a playoff game and 5 interceptions by a team that had only 13 in the regular season you have to question the quality of the product you are watching.  That game was pretty much over at halftime, especially with the coaching job done by John Fox. 

The Mike Martz Award (Stupidity in Action):  I'd go with John Fox on this one.  You have a rush offense that ranked #3 in the NFL.  Williams and Stewart combined for 2,351 rushing yards and 28 rushing touchdowns.  They Panthers ran the ball 7 times in the first quarter.  They ran it 8 times the rest of the game. 

I understand the game got away from them in the second quarter.  I understand they were down 27-7 at the half.  But you can't abandon the running game like that.  You have to maintain some offensive balance.  Credit Arizona for forcing turnovers and putting points on the board.  Blame Delhomme for turning the ball over 6 times, tied for a NFL playoff record with Brett Favre and Tommy Kramer.  But the coaching staff has to take some blame too.  They took a very bad situation and made it much worse by completely abandoning the run after the first quarter.

Injury Report: Most of the injuries are the same from last week.  It was learned Big Ben not only had a concussion, but a spinal cord concussion in the victory over the Browns in Week 17.  He looked fine on Sunday and should be good for next week.

Anquan Boldin, who sat against the Panthers with a hamstring injury, is expected to play against the Eagles.  Starting Cardinal Tight End Stephen Spach is done for the year with a torn knee ligament, an injury he suffered against Carolina. 

Overall Impressions of Divisional Round Weekend:

1) Baltimore at Tennessee - This really has to feel like a lost opportunity for Tennessee.  Baltimore is a good team.  They are led by future first ballot Hall of Famers Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.  The Titans only beat the Ravens by 3 points in the regular season.  It was hardly a game that seemed like a guarantee headed into the game.  It wasn't like the Titans laid an egg against an average team.  To lose a game to them 13-10 is not something to be ashamed of. 

Still, the Titans started the season 10-0.  They earned the NFL's best record at 13-3.  You play that well in the regular season so that you get this game at home.  The Titans rushed 28 times for 116 yards, which is very good against this defense.  The Ravens allowed only 81.4 rushing yards per game on the season.  Kerry Collins passed for 281 yards.  The Ravens only allowed 179.7 passing yards on the season.

The problem wasn't that the Titans couldn't move the ball on Saturday.  The problem was that they couldn't stop turning the ball over in scoring position.  The Titans had 3 turnovers in that game to the Ravens 0 turnovers.  Crumpler's fumble inside the Ravens 5-yard line in the 4th quarter is as costly as they come.  In a game with those defenses you have to score points when given the opportunity.  The Titans didn't do that.

Baltimore led the NFL with 34 takeaways in the regular season, so that wasn't totally unexpected.  I also understand that Titans fans have to be upset at the delay of game penalty that was not called in the 4th quarter.  On a 3rd down play the Ravens picked up a huge chunk of yardage that set up the winning field goal.  The play appeared to be snapped well after the play clock hit zero.  That was a costly mistake by the officials and a big break for the Ravens. 

But the Ravens came into that stadium and did the things you expect a playoff team to do to win a road game.  Furthermore, the Titans did the things that losing teams regret afterwards.  If you look at the box score, the Ravens would be the team you expected to win that game, especially with the plus three advantage in turnovers.  The right team won the game.

The Titans have a lot of questions to answer this off-season.  Is Albert Haynesworth going to be back with the team?  They can't franchise tag him, so if he wants to leave the Titans can't stop him.   Do they want to bring back Kerry Collins or allow him to leave in free agency?  Do they want to go back to Vince Young?  Do they want to go in a different direction? 

We've seen over the years how hard it can be to repeat success, especially with no franchise quarterback in place.  The Titans could easily regress to 8-8 next year with a few losses in free agency.  We've seen that happen before.  Your best chance is always the chance in front of you and this team did not come through.  We'll see if they get to redeem themselves in 2009. 

As for the Ravens.  This is a team that has to feel good going into their game against the Steelers.  Granted, they did go 0-2 against the Steelers.  Their first game was a 23-20 OT defeat.  The second was a 13-9 defeat where they led most of the game.  They know they can stop the Steelers.  Their offense has been playing very well on the road.  Joe Flacco is playing well beyond his years.  They have a nice blend of young players with veterans like Ray Lewis and Ed Reed.  The Ravens have won 11 of their last 13 games with their only losses being to the New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers.  They have to feel good headed into this game.  Momentum is wearing a Raven uniform.

2) Arizona at Carolina - You have to be careful when analyzing a game like this.  When we watch games like this the immediate reaction is whether this was the greatest playoff debacle ever.  There have been a lot of good teams to lose in the playoffs and the Panthers are certainly not the first.  The undefeated Patriots lost to the 10-6 NY Giants in the Super Bowl last year.  The Packers and Cowboys both lost home playoff games to the NY Giants last year.  The Denver Broncos were upset by second year franchise Jacksonville in 1996. 

You have to be careful not to forget to give Arizona credit.  Arizona deserves credit for winning 33-13.  It was a terrific effort by an underappreciated team.  The thing about those other upset games is that they were competitive.  Close games that went the underdog's way.  I'm trying to think back to a home playoff loss of this proportion to a team that went only 9-7 in the regular season.  In 1988 you had 10-6 San Francisco dominate 12-4 Chicago at Soldier Field in the bitter cold 28-3 to advance to the Super Bowl.   Other than that I really struggled to find something comparable to this meltdown.

The Panthers were 8-0 at home this year.  They won 3 more games than the Cardinals did in the regular season.  You have to win that game and that loss starts with Jake Delhomme.  The Arizona Cardinals had only 13 interceptions on the season.  They allowed the 3rd best QB rating to quarterbacks on the regular season.  Delhomme had 1 meaningless touchdown, 5 picks, and a 39.1 QB rating.  That is unacceptable for the defense he was playing and given that he has played in two NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl. 

Second, the Panthers did rank 20th against the run.  But the Cardinals ranked 32nd in rushing yards gained.  In their regular season meeting the Cardinal backs combined for 13 carries and 20 yards.  Boldin had their only solid run of the day with a 30-yard run on a reverse.  For the Cardinals to have 43 carries for 145 yards and 1 touchdown is unacceptable.

Third, the Panthers had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL.  Williams and Stewart combined for 2,351 rushing yards and 28 rushing touchdowns.  The Cardinals are not a dominate run defense ranking 16th in the NFL.  The score prevented the Panthers backs from staying involved in the offense to a certain degree, but when they did carry the ball they had 15 carries for 75 yards and 1 touchdown.  31 of those 75 yards came on a Williams run on the first drive of the game.  John Fox abandoned the run way too fast and he was responsible for making a bad Delhomme game worse.

Fourth, Steve Smith was nowhere to be found.  He depends on Delhomme to get him the ball, which isn't a good thing when he has a night like he had on Saturday.  But he had only one catch for 35 yards before catching that meaningless 8-yard touchdown catch with 0:50 seconds left in the game. 

That was one of the worst complete efforts I've seen in NFL history.  The Cardinals are a team that I identified early in the year as a team to win the NFC West and to possibly cause problems in the playoffs.  They started 7-3.  They finished the season 2-4 with their only wins coming against St Louis and Seattle.  Philly, Minnesota, and New England destroyed them in regular season play at the end of the season.  The Panthers were considered one of two favorites to represent the NFC in the playoff game.  Arizona is a good team, but that is a team you have to beat in that spot.  There is no excuse to lose that game.  There certainly is no excuse to lose a game in that manner.  When people talk about the worst playoff losses in NFL history this game will come up year after year.

As for the Arizona Cardinals.  Like I said, I think it is easy to get caught up in what the Panthers didn't do.  Credit Arizona.  That was as good of an effort as you will ever see.  The things that were costing the Cardinals the last 6 weeks of the season are the things they are doing now.  Edge James looks rejuvenated and ready to go.  Tim Hightower is giving them a good effort running the ball as well.  That balance is helping Warner and Fitzgerald do their thing.  They aren't getting killed by too many turnovers on offense, because their run game is doing well and helping them protect the ball.  The run defense neutralized Michael Turner and DeAngelo Williams in back to back weeks. 

Now they are hosting the NFC Championship Game.  Given all the games they lost in the last 6 weeks, this seemed like one of the least likely NFC Championship Game venues.  They earned it.  Congratulations to the Cardinals for being in their first title game since the 1948 season and their first home title game since the 1947 season.  Ironically, those two games were played against....The Philadelphia Eagles.   

3) Philadelphia at New York Giants - When people talk about the quarterback getting too much credit and too much blame.  You are seeing that with this story.  Donovan McNabb is a very accomplished quarterback.  He has made 5-Pro Bowls.  He is playing in his 5th NFC Championship Game in 8 years.  He deserves credit for responding to his Baltimore benching and helping lead this team to the NFC Championship Game. 

Let's not go overboard.  Donovan McNabb has completed 45 passes in 74 attempts for a 60.8 completion percentage with 2 touchdowns, 3 picks, and a 74.0 QB rating.  He's also had a safety.  If you take out the 71-yard touchdown screen pass that was more Westbrook running the ball than McNabb throwing the ball he has a 65.2 QB rating in the playoffs.  So I really am not very interested in hearing how Donovan McNabb put this team on his back and carried them to the NFC Championship.  The numbers don't back that claim up.  

The certainly don't suggest he should be calling anyone on the Giant's sideline.  Who is he, Joe Horn? McNabb apologized for the incident, but it was still uncalled for.  If he was going to call anyone call the Owner and GM and thank them for signing Samuel and drafting Jackson.  That's a big reason they are improved in 2008.  He may very well be helping lead that team with his intangibles and leadership.  But it isn't showing up in the stat sheet in the playoffs.  You can't win most playoff games with 1 touchdown pass, throwing picks, and taking safeties.  Unless...

What you can win with is a pass defense that is dominating the NFC playoffs.  After holding Tavaris Jackson to a 45.4 QB rating they actually got stingier and allowed a 40.7 QB rating to Eli Manning.  That was as bad of a playoff performance as you will see by a defending Super Bowl MVP.  He went 15 for 29 with 169 yards, 0 touchdown throws and 2 picks.  Asante Samuel had another big interception return.  Against the Vikings it netted a touchdown.   This one set up the Eagles inside the 5-yard line.  That is why the Eagles are playing in the NFC title game.  That is why the beat the Giants 23-11.  They are allowing just 161.0 pass yards per game.  That bodes well for them facing the Arizona Cardinals.   Compared to his counterparts McNabb is having a great 2009 playoffs.

As for the New York Giants.  I think you saw what happens to most quarterbacks when they don't have a number one receiver.  When people point to Donovan McNabb not putting up big numbers, because he didn't have good receivers.  This is the type of game that illustrates the importance of a game-changing receiver.  DeShaun Jackson was huge in that game.  He had 4 catches for 81 yards, including a huge 48-yard play that setup the Eagles with a field goal to make the score 23-11 with 4:00 minutes left in the game.

People can talk about Earth, Wind, and Fire.  They can talk about the defense.  What the Giants missed in the last month of the season was Plaxico Burress.  He had 11 catches for 151 yards in the NFC Title Game last year.  He had the touchdown that put the Giants ahead for good.  Even when he wasn't playing big, he was drawing coverage and opening up the rest of the field. 

The Giants were able to dominate Seattle 44-6 without him.  Seattle is a very bad team.  But they couldn't close the deal at the end of the season.  Eli never got over 200 yards in the final four games of the season.  He had only 2 touchdowns and 2 picks.  He was sacked 12 times.  He was under an 80.0 rating three times in four games.   The result was losses to Philly, Dallas, and Minnesota.  They beat Carolina 34-28 in a game they probably should have lost. 

While this team had a lot of momentum in their 2007 playoff run.  They went in flat this year.  While a lot of people including me thought the defending champions could flip that switch, they couldn't against a pass defense that is suffocating people like many of us expected they would at the beginning of the season.  The Giants have a bright future with Eli Manning in the prime of his career, a defense that is still young and talented, and a running game that runs behind a dominant offensive line.  If Burress isn't back in 2009 they need to address the receiver spot and find a #1 receiver.  Eli Manning is a good QB, but he isn't good enough to lead this team to more Super Bowls without better targets, just like Donovan McNabb struggled with that task in the early part of the decade.

4) San Diego at Pittsburgh  - The Steelers had a very interesting day.  Most times when you hold a team to 15 rushing yards gained in a snowstorm you are going to win the game going away.  When your back gains 147 yards and 2 touchdowns that is a sign that things are going your way.  This ended up being a much higher scoring game than I anticipated, especially seeing the Chargers failed to gain anything in the ground game.  The Steelers won the game 35-24.  The regular season game was an 11-10 affair.

Philip Rivers is the next big thing in the NFL.  If I could have on quarterback that was under 30 years old to build my franchise around it would be him.  He broke out this year to lead the NFL in touchdown passes, tying Drew Brees with 34.  He was also the only QB with a rating over 100.00.  Then he beat the Colts and played huge in that game.  He followed that up with over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns against the best pass defense in the NFL, despite absolutely no running game.  NFL football has slowed down for this guy.  I was never high on him coming out of college.  I think he is the next big star in the NFL at the quarterback position.  He is that good and will help the Chargers ease from a run based offense centered around LT to a pass based offense centered around Rivers.  You saw that this year and that will continue in 2009.  Denver and San Diego are going to have some passing wars for years to come.

In the end the Chargers defense and special teams could not contain the Steelers.  While the Chargers had the better passing game the Steelers had the better team.  That is why they will be playing the Ravens next week. 

As for the Steelers.  The storyline this week will be beating the same team three times in a season.  It's an impossible task.  Don't let the stats get in the way of a fun story. Since 1990 when the playoff round expanded to 6 teams per conference the 2-0 team is 9-5 against the 0-2 team in the playoffs.  You could argue it is much harder to beat a team that you already lost to twice in a season than it is to beat the same team three times. 

The defenses are pretty even.  They both have three Pro Bowl players.  The Steelers do a little better at stopping teams and sacking the QB.  The Ravens are better at forcing turnovers.  These are the two premier defenses in the NFL.

The thing the Steelers will have to worry about is turnovers.  The Ravens offense is not good enough to move the ball consistently against the Steelers defense.  Chris Johnson gave the Ravens a lot of problems.  He is a very fastback.  So is Willie Parker.  The Steelers have to be encouraged at what the Titans were able to do moving the ball and will look to do some of those same things.  They can't turn the ball over and leave points on the field.  They can't give the Ravens a short field.  Flacoo isn't going to drive the ball 80 or 90 yards against this defense on a consistent basis.  He can make plays if he is starting in Pittsburgh territory.

Here are two other stories not related to the playoffs that made some news this week.   

5) Tony Dungy's Legacy - Rarely are you going to have a year where three coaches of the caliber of Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, and Tony Dungy all leaving their respective teams.  Those are three coaches that should be in the NFL Hall of Fame.  When Tony Dungy decided to call it a career in Indianapolis it completed one of the finest careers in NFL history. 

The best thing I can say about Tony Dungy is that for as good of a career as he has had he sounds like an even better person.  I've never gotten to meet Tony Dungy, but I haven't heard one person that has had a bad thing to say about him as a human being.  To have that type of resume as a head coach and have people say that about you is one of the most unique things I have ever seen in professional sports. 

Everyone says that The Hood, Phil Jackson, Bill Parcells, Iron Mike, and countless others are terrific coaches.  Do you ever hear these people described as nice?  That isn't to say that they aren't good people that do good things for their community.  But when you think of those guys on the sideline you think of intimidating personalities.  I've never heard anyone describe The Hood as a "True Gentleman of the Sideline."

Tony Dungy leaves behind an incredible legacy.  He is one of only three people in NFL history to win a Super Bowl ring as both a player and head coach, joining Iron Mike Ditka and Tom Flores.  He leaves the NFL with a 139-69 career coaching record. His .759 winning percentage with the Colts is the third highest for a coach with one franchise trailing only 49ers head coach George Seifert and Oakland's John Madden. 

Tony Dungy became a Head Coach of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 1996.  Tampa Bay isn't a bad destination in the 2009 NFL football world.  Back then it was the black hole of the NFL, a place where coaches went to die.  They hadn't had a winning record in a non-strike season since 1981 and lost 10 games or more every year from 1983 to 1994.   In his first year they went 6-10.  He would never have a losing record the rest of his coaching career. 

Tony Dungy took that team to the playoffs in 1997.  In all his teams qualified for the playoffs 11 out of 13 times and every year since 1999.  By 1999 they Bucs were in the NFC Championship Game.  They lost to an all time great 1999 Rams team 11-6.  2000 and 2001 would produce early playoff exits.  Tony Dungy was let go after the 2001 season.  In 2002 Jon Gruden took the Buccaneers to the Super Bowl title with the majority of the players being Tony Dungy's guys.  One has to wonder if he had been given one more year if he would have closed the deal.  NFL history might have looked very different had that occurred. 

Dungy did a very smart thing when he went to Indianapolis.  He was a defensive guy and the Colts had one of the best offenses in the NFL, but one of the worst defenses.  He kept the offense and offensive coordinator Tom Moore in tact and repaired the defense.  From 2003 to 2008 the Colts won more than 12 games every season.  That is a NFL record.   In 2006 his Colts won the Super Bowl.  Tony Dungy became the first black head coach to win a Super Bowl title.  Seeing he was only the 5th black NFL coach when he was hired in 1996 it shows how far the NFL has come in terms of minority hiring during his career. Two of the black coaches he employed have had pretty successful NFL tenures.  Lovie Smith lost to Dungy in the 2006 Super Bowl.  Herm Edwards made the playoffs twice in New York and once with Kansas City, before bottoming out with a poor team in 2007 and 2008. 

The only negative thing on Tony Dungy's resume is his post-season resume.  He had a 9-10 record in the playoffs with 4 of those wins coming in the 2006 season.  That means in his other 10 playoff appearances the Buccaneers / Colts were just 5-10.  For all the success the Colts had from 2003 to 2008 they were bounced in their first playoff game three of the last four years.  They played in two AFC Championship Games. 

I've said this about a lot of players that didn't do well in the postseason and I'm going to say it about Tony Dungy.  People don't realize how hard it is to win in the playoffs.  Only 12 out of 32 NFL Head Coaches even qualify for the playoffs.  The most coaches that can win a playoff game in a single playoffs is eight.  The fewest is four.  For him to have a 7-6 playoff record in Indianapolis is nothing to frown about.  There are a lot of coaches that never win in the playoffs.  You just don't have many coaches that win 15-20 playoff games.

Second, I get sick of hearing, "We'll he only won one ring."  There are only 26 head coaches in the Super Bowl era that have one ring.  Only 11 coaches have won more than one ring.  That is a very exclusive fraternity.  To short change a guy for winning "only" one Super Bowl is pretty nit picky, especially when guys like Andy Reid and Jeff Fisher have yet to win even one.  Those two are among the elite coaches in the NFL. 

Third, which team would you say he should have won with?  I think the criticism that is fair with Tony Dungy is that while he had arguably the best quarterback in the NFL from 2003 to 2008, a quarterback that won three MVP's.  Yet they failed to win a Super Bowl in any of the seasons Manning won MVP.  However, I think Peyton Manning deserves some blame for that too.  He never won big games at the University of Tennessee and had a 0-2-playoff record before Dungy walked in the door.  So to blame Dungy for those shortcomings without also looking at Peyton Manning's shortcomings in the postseason is not entirely fair, especially when it was the offense that underperformed in those playoff losses, a unit Tony Dungy entrusted Tom Moore and Peyton Manning to manage.

Were his 2003 or 2004 teams really better than the Patriots?  Were his Colts the favorite to win it this year?  Did any of those Tampa Bay teams strike you as the favorite?  The only team that should have done more was the 2005 Colts.  They had a 14-2 record, which was the best in the NFL.  They finished 2nd in points scored, second in points allowed, and won by an average of 12.0 points per game.  That is a team that should have won a Super Bowl going away.

That said I just give credit for Tony Dungy even being able to coach in those playoffs.  His 18-year old son committed suicide just a month earlier.  It was one of the most tragic things you will ever see.  That tragedy really derailed what should have been an extremely rewarding season for that entire team.  I refuse to criticize Tony Dungy's team for not delivering in the postseason with something that tragic occurring just a month before.  That has to be a very difficult thing to play and coach through.

All in all it was a first class job by a first class individual.  He won with integrity and he won with grace.  He is a first ballot Hall of Fame coach and one of the best winners the NFL has ever seen.  If this was his last stop in the NFL he will be sorely missed.  Guys like that don't come around every season.  Congratulations on a wonderful career and continued success in your future endeavors. 

6) New hires - There were a couple new hires.  I really wasn't impressed with either one of them. 

Eric Mangini - Somebody is going to have to tell me what is so impressive about this guy.  When the New York Jets hired him he had one year of coordinator experience with the Patriots.  He was the Patriots defensive coordinator in 2005.  In his three seasons with the Jets they went 23-25 with a 0-1-playoff record.  The Favre haters can blame Brett for costing Mangini his job all day long.  You would swear he was already Don Shula when Favre got there.  The fact is that he was a very average NFL Coach in New York.  Defense is supposed to be his expertise.  The Jets never finished higher than 16th in yards allowed when he was there, despite a lot of free agent signings on that side of the ball.  Last I checked Favre wasn't the safety on the 28th ranked pass defense.

I don't necessarily think it was an awful hire.  They could have done a lot worse.  It's too early to write Mangini off with only three years of coaching experience.  Duke could have fired Coach K after three years.  Sometimes you have to give a young guy a chance to grow into the job.  That patience can pay off. 

But why the Browns thought they had to hire him right now is beyond me.  There are a lot of good coordinators out there, some of them still in the playoffs.  There are several big name coaches coming on to the market.  I have a hard time believing that this was the premier hire on the market, the guy that you could not afford to let get away.  As good as The Hood has been in New England, his coaching tree has been pretty average to date.  For a team desperately looking for a splash, I think they could have waited longer to explore more options.

What the Browns are getting is a guy that has a reputation for being more of a disciplinarian that Romeo Crenell.  I think that is what the Browns were looking for and why Mangini impressed in the interview process.  He will bring a more disciplined approach to the Browns.  I think it remains to be seen if this is the hire that can get them past the Steelers and the Ravens.  Mangini doesn't have enough of a track record to determine that one way or another.  He had some positive moments with the Jets, but hardly enough of a body of work to make you think he's a shoe in as the next big thing in coaching.

Josh McDaniels - I know the Patriots fans are just going to think I hate all their assistants. Are the Broncos really a better team going forward going with a 32-year old Head Coach than keeping experienced veteran Mike Shanahan?  I saw the reasons why they wanted to change.  I just don't see the upgrade here. 

Do you think McDaniels was the reason the Patriots offense exploded in 2007?  Or do you think any of a number of coordinators could have done that with Tom Brady and Randy Moss?  Seeing that Charlie Weis held that same position and was thought to be irreplaceable, I have my doubts about how much credit McDaniels should take for the 2007 season.  I'd line up to give him a shot as offensive coordinator.  I'm just not sure I'd want him running my franchise at this point in his coaching career. 

Again, I'm not saying the guy will be a bad head coach.  We just don't know.  What I am saying is that they had a Hall of Fame coach with an offensive background.  They fired him to get a 32 year old with an offensive background.  If they had hired Steve Spagnolo, a young rising defensive coordinator to help turnaround the 30th ranked scoring defense it would have made more sense to me.  Shanahan wasn't going to turn around the defense, so we needed to bring someone in with that type of background.  Offense was hardly the problem in Denver.  To bring in a 32-year old head coach on the offensive side of the ball leaves me scratching my head.

A Look Ahead:

Street Cred's 2008 Playoff Record: 3-5

That was about as disastrous of a week as you will ever see.  I went 0-4 in the playoffs last weekend.  It doesn't get much worse than that, however I can't see many people picking 3 of the 4 road teams to win.  I picked one, which had to be the wrong one.  If you picked these championship games at the beginning of the playoffs, congratulations.   Especially if you picked the NFC game.

Here is how I see the Conference Championship Games playing out.  Keep in mind that the opposite will probably happen:

Baltimore (13-5) at Pittsburgh (13-4) - I just have a hard time picking against a team that won twice already this year.  The Ravens have a terrific defense, which makes this so hard to pick.  You don't know which team is going to turn the ball over.  Turnovers are the hardest thing to predict in the NFL.  You can usually project running yards and passing yards.  Turnovers can totally change a game.  Just ask Carolina.  I like the Steelers, because they are more battle tested.  The perception of the Ravens is that they were in the Super Bowl in 2000.  The reality is that Ed Reed was not on the team.  He was in college at the U.  Chris McAllister was a rookie in 2000 for the Ravens.  McAllister, Ray Lewis and Matt Stover have Super Bowl experience.  Derrick Mason, Samari Rolle, and Lorenzo Neal were on the 99 Titans team that lost to the Rams.  But, the Steelers were just there in 2005.  They have a lot more players that were on that team and 2005 is more in my memory than 2000.  Their quarterback has been through the playoff wars.  Furthermore, he's not a NFL rookie.  The game is also in Pittsburgh.  Those factors make me like the Steelers to win a game this should be pretty similar in style to the first two games.  A hard-hitting, ferocious defensive battle.  Winner:  Pittsburgh

Arizona (11-7) at Philadelphia (11-6-1) - The temptation is going to be to pick the Eagles in a blow out.  They are going to look at the 48-20 game back in Philly.  Remember a couple things.  Westbrook is probably not going to have 4 touchdowns in this game and McNabb is probably not going to have 4 touchdown throws.  This game will have a different feel to it, especially seeing the Eagles are averaging only 24.5 points per game in the playoffs.  I'd be very surprised if the Eagles put up 48 points this time around.  Also, in 2007 the two conference championship game were rematches from the regular season.  The Packers beat the Giants 35-13 in New York.  The Patriots beat the Chargers 38-13.  In the rematch the Giants beat the Packers 23-20 in OT.  The Patriots still beat the Chargers, but only by a score of 23-12.  Recent history says this is going to be a closer game.  What I like in this game is the Philadelphia pass defense.  They are probably playing as well as any unit in the NFL.  That is going to be hard for Warner to move the ball through the air.  While the Cardinals are running the ball well, I don't think they can do that if they aren't passing the ball.  I think the Eagles can stop that without having to cheat a safety up to stop the run.  I like the Eagles to win a game that will see both teams in the low to mid 20's.  I'm expecting a very competitive game.  Winner:  Philadelphia

That's all for this week.  I'm seeing a Pennsylvania Super Bowl.  Be happy if you like the Ravens or the Cardinals.  I may have made your season.  I look forward to reading your comments this week.

As I promised when the season was done I would go back and take a look at how this trade worked for both teams and compare the two quarterbacks. I'm going to do this in a way that most people haven't thought of looking at it. Most people are comparing 2008 Favre to 2008 Rodgers and trying to draw comparisons between the two. They are trying to figure out if you put Favre on this year's Packers roster how many more or less games they would have won. That is understandable. However, Favre is a 39-year quarterback in the twilight of a Hall of Fame career. Rodgers is a 24-year-old quarterback playing in his 4th NFL season and his 1st year as a starter.

A better way to compare these two is take a look at 1992 Brett Favre and compare him to 2008 Aaron Rodgers. Back in 1992 Brett Favre was a 23-year old player that nobody knew. Most people couldn't pronounce his name. Here is how the 2008 Aaron Rodgers compares with the 1992 Brett Favre on a per game basis. For fairness, I removed Favre's number against Tampa Bay when he threw 14 passes in a 31-3 blowout by Tampa Bay mopping up for an ineffective Don Majikowski.

1992 Favre - 21 completions, 33 attempts, 63.6 comp %, 225 yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and a QB rating of 86.6. He threw on interception every 38.1 attempts.

2008 Rodgers - 21 completions, 34 attempts, 63.6 comp %, 252 yards, 1.8 touchdowns, and a QB rating of 93.8. He threw on interception every 41.2 attempts.

Even looking at the numbers that way, statistically the edge still goes to Rodgers. Remember that the 1992 rules were a little less friendly toward protecting the receiver, but comparable to what we have today. Favre ranked 2nd in completions, 5th in attempts, 9th in passing yards, 8th in passing touchdowns, and 6th in QB rating in only 13 starts. That is why he became the youngest QB at the time to ever be selected to a Pro Bowl.

Even though Rodgers has slightly better numbers, he also started 3 more games. His per game numbers are slightly better than Favre's. Rodgers is 7th in completions, 6th in attempts, 4th in passing yards, 4th in touchdown passes, and 6th in QB rating. Rodgers did not make the Pro Bowl this year, mainly because he played on a 6-10 team.

There have been a number of things that Rodgers has done better in his first year starting and there are a number of things that were more impressive about Rodgers. Here's my list. We'll start with Favre.

1) Worse team - Let's face it. As bad as the 2008 Packers played this year there is a lot more talent on the roster. The 1991 Packers were awful. They went 4-12 that season. They ranked 22nd in scoring offense and 24th in yards gained. They were 18th in points allowed and 10th in yards allowed. The immortal Darryl Thompson led the team in rushing with 471 yards rushing. Vince Workman was a serviceable weapon with 7 rushing touchdowns. Sterling Sharpe was the only true superstar they had. With bad QB play he had 69 catches for 961 yards and 4 touchdowns.

There was some other talent on that team. LeRoy Butler was a rookie safety and would go on to be named to the All 90's Team. Jackie Harris was a 2nd year tight end that would thrive with Favre before departing for Tampa Bay. Bryce Paup, Tony Bennett, Johnny Holland, Brian Noble, and Chuck Cecil were all quality NFL defenders. But this team doesn't compare to the 13-3 squad that made the NFC Championship with the youngest team in the NFL in 2007.

Even if Hall of Fame Brett Favre from 2007 played on this team they would have had little to no shot of making the playoffs. While quarterback was definitely an issue for the 1991 Packers, so were a lot of other positions.

On the other hand, the 2008 Packers returned solid veterans like Chad Clifton, Mark Tauscher, Donald Lee, and Donald Driver. It also featured promising young players like Greg Jennings and Ryan Grant. Aaron Rodgers skill position players are infinitely better than the 1991 Packers. Those players had playoff experience. The 1991 Packers were used to futility. The only offensive player from the 1991 Packers that could have clearly started for this year's Packer team is Sterling Sharpe.

2) No experience in the System - When Brett Favre came to the Packers in 1992 he was leaving the Run and Shoot of Atlanta and headed to the West Coast Offense. He had never run anything like that in his career. He had no quarterback who had any experience running it either. Don Majikowski had played with Lindy Infante. Ty Detmar was a rookie out of BYU.  Favre had to learn this offense on the fly with no other player to show him how it worked. He played in one training camp as the 2nd string QB and was the full time starter by Week 4.

Aaron Rodgers on the other hand had sat behind a first ballot Hall of Fame QB in 2005, 2006, and 2007.  He also sat behind a quarterback that has a pretty good history of backup quarterbacks going on to big things.

Rodgers also had the benefit of being in the West Coast offense his entire career and with current head coach Mike McCarthy in 2006 and 2007. He was also named the starter in March and got to prepare as a starter from March until the opener. While the offense has changed slightly in 2008 to take advantage of Rodger's mobility, they didn't have to reinvent the wheel. That familiarity has really helped Rodgers succeed quickly.

3) Tougher Division - The NFC North was a pretty tough division in 1991. The Detroit Lions won that division with a 12-4 record and lost to the Washington Redskins in the NFC Championship. Barry Sanders was a force for the Lions. The Chicago Bears had Iron Mike and a tough Chicago Defense. They went 11-5 and secured a wild card. Minnesota was an 8-8 team that had Chris Carter starting to come into his own. They would go on to win the division in 1992, 1993, and 1994, before giving way to Favre's Packers. The Tampa Bay Bucs were in the toilet with the Packers at 3-13. For Favre to take that team to 9-7 in that division was an impressive feat.

If you look at the division in 2007 the Packers were the only team with a winning record. They won the division by 5 games. In 2008 the Vikings were the only playoff team, winning the division at 10-6. Adrian Peterson is a superstar. Brian Urlacher is a superstar. But there isn't the individual or team talent in the NFC North that there was in the NFC Central in 1991. Aaron Rodgers was playing on a better team in a worse division in 2008 than Favre was in 1991. For Favre to get more wins is a testament to his natural abilities.

Now, there are also things that favor Rodgers. Here's what I came up with.

1) Inferior coaching staff - Mike McCarthy may be coming off the 2007 NFL Coach of the Year, but I don't see anyone calling him a genius anymore. Even if you think he is the real deal, I certainly don't see people lining up to raid his assistant coaches.  In fact the Packers just fired five defensive coaches.

While Holmgren was a rookie coach in 1992, he had a very impressive resume coming from the San Francisco 49ers organization. He brought in 5 assistants that would go on to become NFL coaches. Their names are Jon Gruden, Dick Jauron, Steve Mariucci, Andy Reid and Ray Rhodes. Not only did they go on to become coaches, but good head coaches. Jon Gruden has won 95 games, including a Super Bowl with Tampa Bay. Andy Reid has won 95 games as well, appeared in 4 consecutive NFC Championship Games from 2001-2004, and appeared in Super Bowl. Steve Mariucci won 72 games and appeared in a NFC Championship Game. Dick Jauron hasn't had the success those three had, but did go 13-3 with the Bears one year. Ray Rhodes made the playoffs in 1995 and 1996 with the Philadelphia Eagles.

While Favre may not have had experience in the West Coast Offense he couldn't have asked to come into a better situation. That 1992 Coaching Staff is one of the best ever assembled in NFL history. It certainly played a large role in Favre becoming the player he is today. That good coaching staff is an equalizer to Rodgers having time to grow in that system and learn behind a player of Favre's caliber.

2) Inferior Front Office - Ron Wolf not only traded a first round pick for Favre, but put a good team in place to help him win. Robert Brooks, Edgar Bennett, and Mark Chumra all came out of that 1992 draft class. All were key offensive weapons for Favre in their Super Bowl years. Wolf also signed Reggie White the next off-season to take the Packers to the next step.

Ted Thompson has a good history too. He helped put together the Seattle Seahawks team that went to the Super Bowl in 2005. He drafted a lot of the young players that helped Favre lead the Packers to the 2007 NFC Championship Game. Trading Javon Walker to the Broncos for a 2nd round pick that was used to select Greg Jennings was by far his best move. Jennings has been a force for Rodgers as well.

However, he's also missed on some opportunities. He could have traded a 2nd round pick for Tony Gonzalez this year. He didn't. He could have tried to sign Randy Moss in 2008. He didn't. He could have traded a 3rd round pick for Randy Moss in 2007. He didn't. He could have traded a first round pick for Michael Turner in the 2007 draft. He didn't and instead selected DT Justin Harrell, who has been injured his entire Packer career.

When Wolf was GM you always got the feeling he would do whatever it took to get the best players on the field and put the Packers in the best possible position to win games. He was open to trades, free agency, the waiver wire, and the draft. With Ted Thompson you feel he is always stockpiling late draft picks and hoping they develop into good players. While he doesn't spend money on bust free agents like Mike Sherman did (Joe Johnson comes to mind) he doesn't bring in many impact players either. Charles Woodson is his only big free agent signing back in 2006.  

Ted Thompson also deserves a lot of the blame for fixating so much on getting Favre out of town, to the point where he was willing to pay $20.00 million to Favre to play nowhere. Had he been willing to use that money on the offensive and defensive lines, the Packers might not be in their current predicament. As good as Rodgers has looked, it's hard to win if the front office isn't surrounding you with the talent necessary to win. While Thompson is not responsible for some of the injury problems the Packers have he is responsible for the lack of depth the Packers don't have that teams like Indy and New England do have that has allowed them to survive injury plagued seasons.

3) The Favre saga - Brett Favre didn't have to deal with replacing an NFL icon in 1992. When he came to the Packers in 1992 they had won 10 games in a single season twice since Lombardi's final 1967 season (1972 & 1989). Don Majikowski was a very popular player. He was my favorite Packer when I was in grade school and the thought of Favre taking his job didn't sit too well with me, at least until I saw Favre play Cincinnati.

However, Majikowski had torn his rotator cuff in 1990 and the team finished 6-10. He was injured and ineffective in 1991 and the team finished 4-12. Replacing the Majik Man wasn't that tough to do. It took that first game against Cincinnati for people to want to move in a different direction. When Favre led the team 90 plus yards down the field with a little over a minute to play and no timeouts people could see what he was capable of doing. You didn't have people buying Majikowski Colt's jerseys in 1993. You didn't have a split fan base.

Rodgers on the other hand has had the burden of replacing arguably the most popular player in the history of the NFL and certainly the most popular player in the history of the franchise. Favre's Packer jersey is the number one selling jersey in NFL history. His Jet's jersey is the number one selling jersey in the 2008 season. He sold the most memorabilia of any sports player on Ebay this year. Hannah Montana was the only person ahead of him, and Favre finished one spot ahead of President Elect Barack Obama. Not only has Rodgers had to replace Brett Farve, but he has had to replace him with Favre playing for another team. Had Favre been driving the tractor in Mississippi it would have been tough enough. Replacing him with Favre playing for the Jets should have been an impossible task.

It wasn't. Rodgers handled that better than anyone could have expected. He hasn't lashed out at the media. He hasn't pouted about how tough his situation is. He's owned it like a man and played good football. When he hasn't he's owned that too.  You have to respect that.  That's a difficult situation he had no control over.  I'm sure when he was 10-years old and dreaming about the NFL he never envisioned a mess like that.

Now that we have established what each player was working with and without, let's take a look at the three most important questions regarding this trade.

1) Who had the better first season, Favre or Rodgers? - You have to go with Favre on this one. Favre changed the culture in Green Bay the moment he stepped on the field. That was going to be impossible for Rodgers to do, but few players change a franchise like Favre did in their first year in a NFL city.  Favre was probably the least likely candidate in NFL history to do that. 

There were signs he was going to be a NFL Legend from the get go. Favre led the Packers from down 17-3 in the 4th quarter to a 24-23 win against the Bengals. His final two drives were as good as two drives you will ever see by a quarterback playing in his first meaningful game. There was amazement in the air after his touchdown pass to Kitrick Taylor. Jim Lampley who called the game said it best, "Did we see some ghost awake at Lambeau Field? Is this the beginning of something special?" Yes, Jim, it was.

The other memorable game from that year was the Philadelphia Eagles game. Down by double digits in the 4th quarter Favre was playing with a separated shoulder that Reggie White had inflicted on him earlier in the game. Favre led two crucial 4th quarter drives that game the Packers a 27-24 win. That in all likelihood was the game that delivered Reggie White to the Green Bay Packers.

Rodgers has put up good numbers. However, he has yet to put forth a signature win. The Packers are 0-4 against the NFC South. They lost to Dallas.  One third of their victories were against 0-16 Detroit.  Their three best victories were against Minnesota, Chicago, and Indianapolis. Against Indy they returned 2 interceptions for touchdowns. Against Chicago the running game put up over 200 yards rushing. Against Minnesota they won 24-19. Rodgers played very well, but not spectacular in that game.

My point is that there hasn't been that 4th quarter comeback, that magical moment, that defining game that has shown us, Aaron Rodgers has arrived.   The sum of his season is greater than the individual games.  His most impressive performances were in losses to Atlanta and Carolina; games the defense helped lose for him. However, magic isn't created in defeat, no matter where the blame lies.

What Aaron Rodgers has proven in 2008 is that he can play in the NFL. What he hasn't proven is that he is any different that 10-15 other NFL starters. With Brett Favre you wouldn't have traded him for anyone early in his career. It became apparent that there was something very special there.  Lets say the Packers had any of he following as a backup:  Tom Brady (if healthy), Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Kurt Warner, Eli Manning, Big Ben, Tony Romo, Matt Hasselbeck (if healthy), Phillip Rivers, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer (if healthy), Matt Ryan, Marc Bulger, Joe Flacco, Donovan McNabb, or Kyle Orton. If any of those guys were the backup and Rodgers got hurt and you needed to win a game to get in the playoffs would you be overly concerned?

My point is that Aaron Rodgers has proved early on that he is not a Ryan Leaf, Alex Smith, or Joey Harrington. He has NFL talent and a NFL mentality. What he hasn't proven yet is that he's any better than any other competent NFL starting quarterback. He hasn't proven that he is a special player.

Furthermore, other than his solid play in the face of the Favre soap opera, he hasn't shown anything on the field that you can hang your hat on and say, "That's where he showed he is going to be a franchise guy." While that is hard for any quarterback to do in their first season, I think Favre did that in his very first game. It was obvious he did something right, because Reggie White didn't sign in Green Bay, because Mike Holmgren pretended to be God and told him God wanted him to play in Green Bay. Reggie White came to Green Bay, because he thought Brett Favre had the ability to turn the Packers into a Super Bowl contender.  I can't imagine Albert Haynesworth is thinking he needs to come to Green Bay, because that's where the next big thing is going to come from.  

I think there was a lot more optimism about where the Packers were headed after Favre's first year than Rodger's. Part of that is because Rodgers is taking over for a team that was 13-3 and not one that was 4-12. The Packers were ecstatic to get close to 10 games in 1992. 9-7 this year would have still been a disappointment.

The 1992 team was a team that was on the rise. A team that looked headed for bigger things. A team a player with the stature of Reggie White wanted to join. If Reggie were here today and faced the exact same decision would the Packers inspire him to sign there? Given the totality of their situation, I would say no. For those reasons, the Pro Bowl birth, and the quality of Favre's stats in 13 starts, I would go with Favre as having the better first season.

2) Who had the better 2008 season? This one is pretty easy too.  Favre's team won more games, but Rodgers didn't have a 5 game collapse like Favre did either.  In terms of stats, this one is clearly Rodgers. Favre's stats are obscured in large part to a 6-touchdown game against Arizona. Rodgers stats are obscured by two really bad games against the Bucs and Saints. Week in and Week out Rodgers put up the better passing numbers. He also added a mobility component to the Packer offense that they hadn't had in a number of years.  The statistics say he was the better player in a landslide.

Again, keep in mind that Favre is 39-years old and that he played with a partially torn bicep tendon toward the end of the season.   Also, keep in mind Rodgers played with a bum shoulder at the beginning of the season.  They were both hurt at different times of the year.  Both could have done better if healthy the whole year.

The last 5 weeks decided this.  There is no question about that.  If I write this article after Week 12, it's Favre in a landslide.  Only one player has ever led their team to the playoffs at 39, Phil Simms. Most 39-year old quarterbacks are no longer able to start week in and week out.  He had them at 8-3 and they had just upset the 10-0 Titans.  New York was talking Super Bowl.  Green Bay was talking the draft at that point.  

Most people thought the Packers would miss Favre's stats. In the end his stats were replaceable. What they really missed is the intangibles that his critics always sold him short on. Now the critics of Favre have to defend Rodgers by saying that he puts up great numbers, but can't win with a defense like that; an excuse they would have given Favre.

Furthermore, what the Jets have benefited the most from with Favre really hasn't been his stats, but those intangibles that he brings to the locker room.   That was until the team collapsed in their last 5 games and some teammates decided to pile on Favre and act like he was the biggest head case in the NFL and forget that they were going to make a statute of him just 5 weeks earlier.

The critics of Favre need to realize something. Favre had it right in his retirement speech. He said, "The statistics part of it were never that important. They have been earlier in my career. I was never really a statistics guy, and that's coming from a guy that ran the wishbone and wing-T in high school and was signed as a safety in college. So statistics never were never a big part of my makeup and I think people know that. I'm well aware of the statistics, the records that I have right now. I think those were meant to be ... That's why they keep records, for those to be broken. I'm sure it makes for good TV when the next guy comes through. But I hope my legacy is a lot more than that. If I have to be remembered because of statistics then I did something wrong along the way. I really believe that I left a lot more than that."

Favre did leave more than that. The best thing I can say about Favre as a football player is that he is a winner. People say he is fun to play with. That shows on the field. If I could play one year of NFL football, I'd want to play with that guy. He won in high school. He won in college. He won in the NFL. Only one time in 18 NFL seasons has he failed to win at least 8 games. Not having a losing season in four or five seasons can be a product of coming into a good team. That could be why Romo has done so well to start his career. We won't know that for a few years.

You don't have only one losing season in eighteen unless you are something pretty special.  Favre came to a team that was in the dumps. He won right away. He built that franchise into a Super Bowl winner. He survived the break up of the Wolf / Holmgren led Packers and the emergence of Sherman's Packers. He survived the break up of the Sherman Packers and the emergence of the Thompson / McCarthy Packers. All he did was keep winning, with the exception of 2005. Then he went to the Jets, learned a new offense, and won some more. It might not have ended well, but at the end of the day they still finished 9-7.  

Favre will be remembered for his gaudy records as a Packer. But he was so much more. That so much more is what the Packers lacked in 2008. I'm not saying they would have been a Super Bowl contender. They might not have had a winning record, especially the way he played the last 5 games. But they would have been a lot more exciting to watch. Because, with Brett Favre there was never a dull moment. I can't say the same for this 2008 Packers season. 

All that said, the past is the past.  1992 Brett Favre can't play in the NFL today.  40 year old Brett Favre can.  Aaron Rodgers had a fantastic statistical season and if you could have one of the two on your team for next year you would have to be crazy not to take Rodgers.

3) Did the Packers make the right decision to trade Favre - Kind of. I know that's a weak answer, but let me explain. The Packers made the right decision to trade Favre in August given where they were. We will never know the full story, but there was clearly a riff between Favre and the Packers Front Office, in particular Favre and Thompson. I fully believe that the riff caused him to retire in March. That riff also caused him to want to comeback and show the Packers what they were missing. As much as those players respected him, that still would probably not have played well. In August Favre had revenge in his heart and he admitted so in a Peter King SI interview, stating he was wrong to be obsessed with getting back at the Packers and that he regrets that decision. That's not putting the team first and people in that locker room would have resented that. I believe that is what McCarthy was referring to when he said that Brett Favre was not in the right state of mind to play for the Green Bay Packers.

Had Favre comeback you would have had a lot of problems. There could have been a split in the locker room with the older players flocking to Favre and the younger ones to Rodgers. Rodgers could have become irritated and demanded a trade. Now the Packers would be without any proven quarterback and let one with a lot of talent and potential get away. They would have been stuck with a legendary quarterback that had destroyed the locker room.

Could Favre have repaired that with his team? Tough to say. If anyone could have, it would have been him. That said, he couldn't bring the locker room together in New York when times got tough.  It could have been a very messy ending to Favre's Packer career, even messier than what we are watching right now. As much as people think this scenario may have damaged Favre's legacy, Favre leaving the NFL on a losing team with a split Packer locker room would have been ten times the nightmare him going to the Jets has been. Imagine if that's not Thomas Jones on the radio, but Donald Driver.  By trading Favre they got the best value they could, shipped the distraction out of town, and started making the move toward the future. On August 8th, 2008 they had no better choice than that.  They made the right move.

Furthermore, there is no tangible evidence that the Packers would have been any better without Favre this year. In other words Rodgers stats are very similar to Favre's 2007 stats. There's nothing you can point to in the stats that indicate Favre would have put up better numbers in 2007 than Favre. What I do belief the Packers are missing is the energy, leadership, and confidence that having arguably the best player in NFL history brings to the table. But that's as tough to prove as proving that alien life forms from another galaxy do or don't exist. It's an idea that there is no way of proving.

The mistake the Packers front office made was not trading Favre in August, but rather allowing the situation to get to that point. The concerns that Favre raised about the Packers not being active enough in free agency to bring older players to the fold with playoff experience has proven to be correct. When the few veterans they had got hurt there wasn't enough in the cupboard to keep the good times rolling. Had Favre comeback in February his worst fears may have been realized, going out with a 7 or 8 win team. 

Instead of the blame being assigned to Thompson or McCarthy, just like what is going on in New York, the blame would have fallen on Favre.  He didn't want that and I don't blame him.  The Packers front office messed up by not going after Randy Moss in 2007 and 2008. They messed up by not going after Michael Turner in 2007. They messed up by trading Corey Williams for a 2nd round pick and not replacing him with anyone in free agency.  Why should Favre comeback and put his legacy on the line for Ted Thompson if he isn't going to do anything for Favre in return?  

Had the Packers made a bigger commitment to free agent players and tried to cater to the face of their franchise I don't believe these hard feelings would have festered. Had the Packers treated Favre like the Broncos treated Elway at the end of his career I don't believe Favre would have retired in March. They could have avoided this mess, tried to compete for a title in 2008, and played Aaron Rodgers in either 2009 or 2010.  I think Favre would have played more like 07 Favre than the Jet's Favre had that transpired, but there is no way of knowing that.  He could have broken down too.

Given how the franchise player system works they could have afforded to pay Rodgers under the last year of his deal in 2009 and still kept him for 2010 using the tag. Take a page from the Patriots.  Cassell played well with Brady hurt and they are using the franchise tag to their advantage to protect themselves.  Similar to Cassel, it would have been hard for Rodgers to be mad at the team committing to win a Super Bowl with a NFL icon.  Rodgers would have had no reason to get mad at the Packers for continuing with the face of their franchise who was still winning games for them.

So my verdict is yes, the Packers made the right decision to trade Favre in August, but that they made the incorrect decision of taking their franchise in a direction that allowed them to get to a point where their only option was to trade Brett Favre. They should never have been in that position in the first place, and Ted Thompson is responsible for that. He should pay for that with his job.  That isn't going to happen this season, but I can't see him keeping his job if he doesn't get this right in 2009.  The Packers are going to have to make the playoffs in 2009 or Thompson and McCarthy will pay the price.  That's a story for another day.

Getting rid of Thompson won't bring Favre back, something that would be in the absolute worst interest of the franchise at this point. However, it will allow the Packer fan base to heal and will allow the Packers to hire someone that will use every resource at his disposal to make sure the Packers field the most competitive team possible, something Thompson has failed to do in 2007 and 2008. That is something I think all Packer fans can get behind.

Well there you have it. That is my lengthy take on the first full season since 1991 where a person other than #4 handled the quarterbacking duties for the season. What are your thoughts? Did the Packers make the right call or the wrong call? What do you think of Ted Thompson and Mike McCarthy? Do you seem them wearing rings in a couple years or cashing unemployment checks? How do you think Favre ended up looking in all of this? Let me know your thoughts.