Now that the draft and free agency have passed I think we are starting to have expectations for certain teams.  There are some franchises like Detroit and St Louis where the expectation is going to be six wins and a solid rebuilding effort.  Their coaches won't be under a lot of pressure to produce big win totals in their first year.  There are other teams that are expecting their free agent signings and draft picks will turn them into playoff and Super Bowl contenders.  

These are ten coaches that are going to be feeling an even hotter seat than the rest of the NFL head coaches when September rolls around.  I believe if these ten guys don't show us something in 2009 they will probably be looking for coordinator jobs in 2010.  Here's the list.  

10) Josh McDaniels (Broncos) - McDaniels doesn't need to win ten games and secure a playoff birth to keep his job.  But he has to give the impression that it was worth trading a franchise quarterback in Jay Cutler to improve the overall team, in particular the defense.  

If the Broncos go 6-10, but lose close games to good teams, rank 20th in the NFL in defense, and Moreno looks like the real deal on offense McDaniels will be considered a success and get a second season with no questions asked.  If the team is 6-10, the defense is still a mess, and the offense can't move the ball to save its life; there are going to be problems.  If Denver is getting blown out most weeks, four of the wins are close games over the Chiefs and Raiders, all while Cutler is playing great and leading the Bears to the playoffs; Pat Bowlen might not have the patience to stick with a guy that is only one year on the job and already sent a franchise quarterback out of town. 

Shipping Cutler out of town puts pressure on McDaniels to look impressive this year.  Pat Bowlen needs to see the team is headed in the right direction in year one.  Even if Denver's record isn't great Denver needs to play well.  McDaniels basically forfeited a year to "learn on the job" with a bad defense when he made the move to ship Cutler out of town.

09) Marvin Lewis (Bengals) - I thought he would be gone the last two years, but the Brown family hates to terminate people under contract and have to pay the remainder of their contract.  Winning is not the most important thing in Cincinnati.  Lewis is 46-49-1 since arriving in Cincinnati in 2003 and 0-1 in the playoffs.  Furthermore, he is just 19-28-1 the last three seasons.  He was brought in for the great work he did with the Baltimore defense.  The highest they have ranked in scoring defense since hiring Lewis was 17th in 2006.  The highest they ranked in yards allowed was 12th in their four-win campaign of 2008.  

I just don't think he can afford to go 4-12 or 5-11 and expect to keep his job again.  He has a franchise quarterback to build around in Carson Palmer and they have been adding pieces on defense through the draft for some time.  They used a first round pick on Keith Rivers last year.  In 2007 they added CB Leon Hall in the first round.  In 2006 they added CB Johnathan Joseph and DE Frostee Rucker in the third round.  In 2005 they added David Pollack and Odell Thurman in the first two rounds.  This year they gave him a potential franchise offensive tackle in Andre Smith.  They also added MLB Rey Maualuga and DE Michael Johnson in the second and third rounds.  

Cincinnati is not an ideal situation and everyone knows that.  I don't think Marvin Lewis has to win 12 games and the division to save his job.  The standards in Cincinnati are not very high.  But there are still standards and Lewis needs to get back up to .500 with his young players playing well and the playoffs looking like they are a year around the corner.  His defense that is loaded with top picks has to start playing like a top defense.  If he has another losing record in 2009 I think the Bengals will make a change that quite frankly is probably a year or two overdue.  

08) Mike McCarthy (Packers) - McCarthy is 27-21, but almost half those wins (13) came in the 2007 season.  He is coming off a 6-10 campaign despite having an offense that finished fifth in the NFL in points scored.  

The problem for him since he got there has been the defense.  The 2005 defense allowed the 19th most points in the NFL.  In 2006, which was McCarthy's first season they regressed to 25th.  Then they broke out and finished 6th in 2007.  But that lasted only one year and they were back down to 22nd in 2008.  Except for Winston Moss the entire defensive staff was let go and the team is implementing a 3-4 defense.  Usually if a coach doesn't turn it around after major changes are made to the staff he is shown the door.  They spent two first round picks upgrading the front seven, which finished 27th in rushing yards allowed.  The expectation is that this defense will be improved with those two picks, a new staff, and a new scheme.

I don't think McCarthy needs to make the playoffs to save his job.  His 13-3 record from 2007 and NFC Championship give him a get out of jail card free for last year.  Aaron Rodgers has a bright future and McCarthy is receiving the credit for his development.  There have been a lot of positives with McCarthy there and most people feel is a rising star in the coaching proffession.  But if this team goes 6-10 again and the defense looks lost Ted Thompson is probably not going to survive a fourth non-winning season in five tries.  If Thompson goes the new Packer GM probably isn't going to feel obligated to keep McCarthy for one 13-3 season, three non-winning seasons, and two consecutive seasons under .500.  A new GM is probably going to want his own guy. 

McCarthy needs to do well so that Ted Thompson can keep his job, which will ensure that McCarthy sticks around.   They probably need to go 8-8 to 10-6 and be the second place team in the NFC North this season for that to happen with a defense that is improving and looks prime to break out in 2010.   McCarthy needs to have a solid season in 2009. His defense can't play like it did in 2006 and 2008. 

07) Gary Kubiak (Texans) - Kubiak has been in Houston for three years.  He has a 22-26 record and has never done better than 8-8.  However, 8-8 is the best record in Texans history.  The offense is slowly getting better, but the defense hasn't taken the jump yet.  The best they have ranked on defense in either yards allowed or points allowed in his first three seasons is 22nd.  That is despite drafting players like DE Mario Williams, DT DeMeco Ryans, and Amobi Okoye.  This year they added OLB Brian Cushing and DE Connor Barwin in the first two rounds of the draft and signed DE Antonio Smith in free agency.

With an offense led by Andre Johnson and Steve Slaton that was third in yards gained the expectation is that the Texans will be able to compete in a division where Tony Dungy is no longer the coach, Albert Haynesworth is no longer a Titan, and Jacksonville is coming off a 5-11 season.  The young defense eventually has to stop being young and get better.  

I think the Texans need to make the playoffs this year if Kubiak is going to be with the Texans in 2010.  At the very least the defense needs to get up into the top 15 in the NFL and the team needs to win nine or ten games and be in contention for the playoffs the last week of the season.   At the least they need to be like the 2007 Cleveland Browns.  They can't start slow like they have in past seasons.  If the Texans go 8-8 again and are mediocre a third time in a row they may feel the need to cut ties with Kubiak and bring in a guy to get the team over the top and into the playoffs.  

06) Jim Zorn (Redskins) - He was first hired as the offensive coordinator and then promoted to head coach after they couldn't find anyone they liked better.  It wasn't exactly a ringing endorsement.  He also took over for a team that went 9-7 and made the playoffs as a wildcard in 2007.  While they only lost one more game they started the season 6-2 before finishing 8-8 in last place.  

Dan Snyder always likes to make a splash in free agency and this year was no different.  They signed DT Albert Haynesworth and CB DeAngelo Hall.  The Redskins also drafted LB Brian Orakpo.  People are expecting this defense to dominate the NFL and a bad record will not be tolerated.  

The other problem Zorn has is that for as much as Snyder likes to sign free agents, he loves to sign big name coaches even more.  Mike Shanahan, Mike Holmgren, Bill Cowher, and Jon Gruden are all free agent head coaches.  With the exception of Cowher the other three are considered offensive gurus.  If the Skins finish in last place with a solid defense, but mediocre offense don't be surprised if he cuts ties with Zorn to go after one of the big offensive names.  Zorn pretty much needs to go 10-6 and get a wild card birth to save his job in one of the toughest divisions in the NFL.  

05) Jack Del Rio (Jaguars) - He flat out needs to make the playoffs this season.  He's been in Jacksonville since 2003 and struggles to string successful seasons together.  After going 12-4 in 2005 they slipped to 8-8 in 2006.  They rebounded to go 11-5 in 2007 and won a playoff game in Pittsburgh.  That led to a 5-11 2008 season instead of a breakout year.  Many people thought they would be a darkhorse contender for the Super Bowl in 2008. 

They always seem to be great at running the ball and have a solid defense, but are a quarterback and receiver away from competing with the top AFC teams.  Last year the defense fell apart as well and the offensive line didn't run block or pass block very well.   That disaster cannot happen again.

I do not believe that Kubiak and Del Rio will both survive the season.  I think one of those teams will have a losing record in 2009 and the coach that does will be shown the door.  Del Rio has an improved offensive line, but a lot of questions at quarterback.  Even though Torry Holt is now there this isn't Torry Holt from 2000-2006.   I think Del Rio needs at least a wild card birth and possibly a playoff win to save his job.  He has been there too long for them to do poorly again and survive.

04) Sean Payton (Saints) - It's great that Drew Brees puts up great numbers and the offense scares people to death.  Problem is offenses love playing against the Saints.  After going 10-6 in 2006 and advancing to the NFC Championship Game in Payton's first year the Saints are 15-17 the last two years and have finished in the 20s in both points allowed and yards allowed in 2007 and 2008.  Expectations were that they might be a Super Bowl contender in 2007 and a NFC South division contender in 2008.  They drafted CB Malcom Jenkins and signed Darren Sharper to improve a pass defense that has been lost the last two years.  

7-9 or 8-8 and last place in the NFC South isn't going to cut it.  Missing the playoffs isn't going to cut it.  Six losses on the road like they had in 2008 isn't going to cut it.  This team needs to fulfill it's potential and win the NFC South or compete for a wildcard.  Payton needs to get back to the playoffs.  If they aren't in the playoff mix in 2009 and the defense is still struggling Sean Payton is probably going to pay with his job no matter how well Drew Brees looks.

03) Brad Childress (Vikings) - I don't necessarily know if it's fair that he is on the hot seat.  Even though he is only 24-24 in three seasons the team has gotten better every year.  They went from 6-10 his first year to 8-8 his second year, and 10-6 with the NFC North crown in his third year.  The problem is that he came in as an offensive guru that was supposed to fix the offense, particuarly the quarterback situation.  He hinged his rebuilding on Tarvaris Jackson becoming a viable NFL quarterback.  That hasn't worked out to date.  The Vikings are still a quarterback away from competing for the Super Bowl.   That's a problem when you are saying that for the third straight off-season.

If Jackson has a good year this year and the Vikings win 11 or 12 games Childress is going to keep his job.  But if Jay Cutler and Aaron Rodgers dominate the NFC North and the Vikings regress to 8-8 or worse and miss the playoffs he is going to be out of a job.  The expectation with Adrian Peterson, a great offensive line, and that top flight front seven defense is that they should be playing for championships, not Wild Card appearances and first round exits.  If they don't do that Childress hasn't been impressive enough to escape blame.  He is going to be the one that pays the price for the Vikings still not having a quarterback that can carry the team to the next level.  

02) Wade Phillips (Cowboys) - I debated about whether to go with Any Reid as the other NFC East coach on the hot seat, but I think Phillips has more pressure.  The Eagles at least made the NFC Championship Game in 2008.  Unless the Eagles bottomed out to 6-10, which I can't see happening with the additions they made this off-season Reid can probably survive an 8-8 or 9-7 season if the team sufferes a lot of injuries, in particular to Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook.   Wade Phillips can't miss the playoffs for a second straight year for any reason.

Jerry Jones was not happy with how the team did last season and really didn't make a major splash in free agency.  They allowed troublemakers like TO and PacMan Jones to go elsewhere.  They released S Roy Williams.  They also didn't select a player in the draft until the third round.   Most of their signings were mid tier veteran players with good character that didn't create a ton of buzz.

The Cowboys are depending on better chemistry equaling more wins.  They believe that Phillips and the talent weren't the problem, but rather a few bad seeds (insert TO and PacMan Jones) in the lockeroom caused the meltdown.  Those guys are gone and can no longer be blamed. 

They haven't won a playoff game since 1996 and Wade Phillips has a reputation of being a playoff chokeartist.  I believe that if Wade Phillips doesn't make the playoffs and at least win one playoff game Jerry Jones isn't going to be as patient with is underachieving head coach in 2010.  There isn't going to be a TO or PacMan to blame.  Jones will instead show Wade Phillips the door and look to bring in a big name to get the team over the top.

01) Norv Turner (Chargers) - Marty Ball was fine for September through December.  But it didn't win in January.  That is why Norv Turner was brought to San Diego.  In 2006 the Chargers were first in points scored, fourth in yards gained, seventh in points allowed, and tenth in yards allowed.  They were 14-2 and lost those two games by a combined six points.  But they lost in their first playoff game to New England and Marty was shown the door for Norv Turner.  

The Chargers have been considered the most talented team in the NFL for the last few seasons.  Since they brought in Norv Turner they just haven't been able to start the season fast in a pretty weak division the last two years.  They went 5-5 to start 2007 before winning their final six regular season games.  They eventually lost to the Patriots in the AFC Title Game.  That was supposed to propel them to a 2008 Super Bowl run.  In 2008 they started 4-8 before winning their final four games and catching the collapsing Denver Broncos.  However, they beat the Colts in the first round of the playoffs and played respectable in a loss to eventual champion Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh.  A 3-2 playoff record has helped Turner keep his job again.  Had they missed the playoffs I think he would have been gone.  

The division is in turmoil.  Denver traded Cutler.  Oakland and Kansas City are rebuilding.  Tom Cable is the second most seasoned coach in the divison afer Turner with 12 games under his belt from 2008.  This is a division the Chargers should win by four games, easily.  They need to go 12-4 and earn a first round bye.  They need to compete for a Super Bowl. 

If the Chargers start the season 5-5 and make the playoffs again with a late season surge, I don't think it is enough for Turner to just make the playoffs and win a playoff game.  He needs to show the Chargers front office that the Chargers can play well for the entire season under his direction.  They didn't bring him there to make the playoffs and win a game or two there.  They brought him to get the most talented team in the NFL over the hump and win a Super Bowl.  If the Chargers don't play like a Super Bowl team most of the season Turner is going to probably pay with his job.  

Those are my ten coaches with the most to prove in 2009.  While every coach is coaching for his job as we found out last year when so many high profile veteran coaches were given their pink slips I think these ten have the most to prove entering the 2009 season.  If they have disappointing seasons I don't see them surviving the season.  

Agree or Disagree?  Do you like the list or do you think I have a coach in more trouble then he actually is?  Anyone you think I left off?  Which coach do you think is on the hottest seat this year?  Let me know your thoughts.

 

Be honest. There hadn't been a Favre story since February and you were getting bored. Well now we have a little development that will cause speculation about whether he is truly retired for good. The Jets granted the iconic quarterback his release at the request of Favre through his agent Bus Cook. This allows him to sign anywhere in the NFL as an unrestricted free agent.

Here are my thoughts on this story.

1) Why now? - I think this is pretty obvious. Favre had already asked for his unconditional release back in February, but that request was denied. Reason being the Jets only had Clemens and Ratliff on their roster and if Favre was going to comeback they wanted him to comeback for them. Things changed on April 25th when the Jets not only drafted a rookie quarterback, but traded up to the fifth pick to get him. If Sanchez gets anything close to the $40 million guaranteed Matt Stafford got he is going to have a pretty big contract. Favre also has a big contract. Given their free agency signings if Favre wanted to comeback there is no way they could have paid him. This wasn't like the Packers last year where they had the cap room to reinstate Favre to the roster until they could make a trade.

Favre and his camp knew this so they figured it would be best to ask for the release now. There was no way the Jets were going to say no. They want nothing to do with the drama that went on last year in Green Bay. It would be a distraction to the team and a distraction to Mark Sanchez. So for both parties the best resolution was a quick and immediate resolution in April, not a long drawn out one like last year. In April this story will have legs for a couple days and be forgotten. In July it becomes a full fledged media mess. Hence the release less than a week after the draft.

2) Does this mean Favre is Coming Back - Not necessarily. Favre issued the following statement on Tuesday, "Bus (Cook) and Mike (Tannenbaun) have been talking about this for a while." "Nothing has changed. At this time, I am retired and have no intention of returning to football."

They key phrase in this statement is At This Time. Does that mean he will have a change of heart in June. He might. He might not. Given his conduct in the past there is no way to know what he is thinking. Past history says he is going to want to play.

I think the biggest reason for this move was flexibility. In 2008 when Favre wanted to comeback he was bound by his contract with the Packers. They controlled his fate and that is why he ended up in New York. I think Cook and Favre are making this move to ensure that scenario never happened again. Favre now has options and can exercise them quickly and not depend on others to control his fate.

If he were to remain property of the Jets he would have to rescind his retirement papers and the Jets would have to either release him or put him on the roster. Then there would be talk of a trade if he was put on the roster. Favre doesn't want that. If he does get the itch to play he wants to negotiate a one year deal with a team of his choosing and get the deal done immediately. This allows him to do that. If he doesn't get the itch to play he doesn't have to go forward with resuming his NFL career.

It also allows him the chance to comeback in the middle of the season if a team suffers an injury at quarterback and has a situation where he could excel. He's always wanted to play with Randy Moss. If the unfortunate happened and Tom Brady's knee gives out in Week Five the Patriots may want a veteran quarterback. Under the old scenario the Jets would never agree to release Favre and help the Patriots.

Also, don't rule out that this is opening the door for him to go to Browns camp to work with Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. Eric Mangini had said that he would like Favre to come to training camp and help the quarterbacks as a special instructor. There was speculation about what role Favre could play with the Browns while still property of the Jets. This move allows Favre to join the Browns in what ever capacity the Browns choose. It makes that scenario less messy.

3) If Favre does comeback where does he land? - The obvious destination is Minnesota. That's no secret. That is where Favre wanted to go last year. The Vikings still don't have a long term solution at QB. The traded for Sage Rosenfels to compete with Tarvaris Jackson for that number one spot. They are set at running back, receiver, and the offensive line. Favre would be the missing piece to their title run.

Buffalo could make sense. Dick Jauron was a Packer assistant early in Favre's career and if they aren't sold on Edwards throwing to TO and Evans he could find a home there.

Tampa Bay could be an interesting scenario. If they don't want to play Freeman right away and aren't happy with their five other quarterbacks on the roster they could go in that direction.

San Francisco might work. Hill and Smith are hardly established and Favre could provide them with a veteran for this year.

Oakland is an option. Al Davis always likes to make a splash with veteran players. Bringing Favre into Oakland makes no sense so that seems like a move that Al Davis would embrace.

Washington is an option. They aren't really high on Jason Campbell right now and bringing Favre in could be their chance to compete in the NFC East. Dan Snyder also likes to make moves like this.

Jacksonville could make a move if they think they have all the pieces except quarterback and wanted to take a gamble.

But in all reality it is Minnesota or nowhere. They are the most complete team that is a quarterback away from being a Super Bowl contender. They run the same West Coast offense that Favre ran in Green Bay when offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell was the quarterbacks coach in Green Bay. The Twin Cities is a small area, which Favre is used to. He can hunt and fish in the suburbs just like he did in Green Bay. He will play the Packers twice, which will give him an opportunity to get the revenge on Ted Thompson that he wanted last year.

He has a lot of familiarity with the 2009 opponents. The NFC North is very familiar to Favre. The Vikings play the NFC West, which Favre also played against last year with the Jets. They draw the Giants who the Packers played twice in 2007 and the Panthers who the Packers played once in 2007. They also play the Bengals, who Favre squared off against last year. The only teams he hasn't seen for a while are the Steelers, Ravens, and Browns. The Browns are being run by his old coach Eric Mangini so there will be familiarity there. It's a great schedule for him that offers a lot of familiarity.

Finally, the Vikings don't need a two or three year commitment from him. They are ready to win now and will take him for as long as they can get him and as long as he can play effectively. Given where the Vikings are at with their team and where Favre is at with his career no place makes more sense than Minnesota. If he is going to play anywhere in 2009 that is really the only place that makes sense.

4) What are the chances he comes back? I'm done trying to predict what he is going to do. Just when you think you know what his next move is going to be he does a 180. Everything says he is gearing toward playing another year in the NFL. If you follow the past that means he isn't going to play this year, because him playing makes the most sense given what has happened to date.

I'm going to say no, because I'm taking him at his word about not wanting to get surgery to repair his torn bicep tear. If he doesn't get the surgery it makes no sense for him to comeback. It also doesn't make sense for him to wait until June or July and miss all of training camp. If he's going to do that he should have done it already and to my knowledge he hasn't had that surgery. Therefore, I would say he probably doesn't come back.

As a Favre fan I'm torn. On the one hand another chance to watch him play 16 games is something that excites me. Unlike the Jets where he got into camp in August with a 4-12 team and a foreign offense he has a much better situation in front of him. The problem is that situation is with the biggest rival of the Packers. I will always cherish the moments I got to watch him play for the Packers and I'm not really excited about watching him play for the Vikings.

The fun thing about watching him play for the Vikings is that I lived in Minnesota for three years. They almost hate Green Bay more than they like Minnesota. If Favre were able to lead the Vikings to a Super Bowl win it would be kind of ironic. Yes, the Vikings won the Super Bowl. But they needed Mr. Packer in order to get over the hump. That wouldn't sit well with a lot of Viking fans and there is a part of me that would take pleasure in that.

On the other hand the last five games of the 2008 season were as painful as any five Favre games I watched. His arm wasn't right and looked tired, old and washed up to close the season. He looked like anything but a Hall of Fame quarterback in December. I don't want to watch 16 more games like that while he tries to chase getting revenge on Ted Thompson with an arm that is 40 years old and worn out. Unlike the Jets, the Vikings can win without Favre. They showed that last year. If Favre is throwing interceptions, plays ineffective, and they lose games the Vikings will have to bench him to save their season. It would be unfortunate to see his consecutive game streak end because of a benching in a Minnesota uniform.

While the thought of him playing again is fun to think about, I really hope he decides to stay with his decision to call it a career. The only way he is going to enhance his resume is if he leads the Vikings to a Super Bowl. Anything less than a deep postseason run will be deemed a failure. There are 15 other NFC teams that have also made moves to win. The Dallas Cowboys looked good on paper last year and had a 9-7 record to show for it. Nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. There are a lot more bad things that can happen from his coming back than good things. We saw that play out last year. I hope he realizes that and doesn't make a decision to give it one more try.

What are your thoughts? Are we in for another Favre comeback saga this summer or is this story a lot to do about nothing? Let me know your thoughts.

As always people that follow the NFL will try to grade drafts that we really won't be able to evaluate for three years.  That doesn't mean it isn't fun to try the week after the draft.  If you want to see who each team selected Click Here

Here are five teams that I was impressed with on draft day.  The other five are teams that I wasn't impressed with.   Seeing I am a Packer fan I wanted to talk about their draft too, but I really didn't think they fit into the winner or loser column, so I talked about their draft last. 

Winners

1) New England Patriots - I think the Patriots were the big winners in this draft.  They thought that a lot of the players at the end of the first round looked similar to players in the second or third rounds.  So they traded down in the draft in the first round and acquired more picks.  As a result they had four second round picks and two third round picks.  Then they just started accumulating talent on both sides of the ball.  They used their first three picks on defense.  Patrick Chung gives them more safety help at a position where they need to get younger.  Rodney Harrison is coming off a serious knee injury and is 37 years old.  Ron Brace is a big 330 lb defensive tackle that fits well in their 3-4 defensive scheme.  He provides good depth behind Wilfork.  Darius Butler gives them another young cornerback, a position that they have taken a hit at in the last few off-seasons between the free agent defections highlighted by Samuels in 2008 and the trading of Ellis Hobbs to the Eagles this season.  Sebastian Vollmer gives them a massive 6' 7" tackle to develop.  Brandon Tate is a wide receiver that can also return the ball.  The only concern with him is durability and testing positive for drugs at the combine.   Finally, Tyrone McKenzie gives them more depth at linebacker.  

Given where they were drafting and the situation on their team the Patriots knocked it out of the park.  They were 11-5 last year without Tom Brady.  If he comes back healthy they are going to compete for the Super Bowl again in 2009.  They had a good draft last year finding Jerod Mayo, the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year.  They didn't really need to find five or six starters for this year in the draft.  What they needed to do is replenish their depth and their youth on a team that is built to win now.  By trading down in the draft they found a lot of good prospects that can help on special teams and in backup positions this year and may become their stars in years to come.  That had much more value than packaging the picks together and trading up to get one impact player in this year's draft.  

The Patriots didn't get the big names in this draft, but when do they ever do that?  They stuck to their drafting philosophy that has made them the premier franchise in the NFL.  There is no reason to believe it will fail now.      

2) Philadelphia Eagles - I really like what the Eagles did in the draft as well.  They have a veteran team that probably has only a couple more cracks at Super Bowl contention.  Trading a first round pick for Jason Peters makes sense.  Peters is only 27 years old, so it isn't like they got a 34-year-old tackle that will only be able to help for a year or two.  Teaming him with Stacy and Shawn Andrews is going to really upgrade their offensive line.  Peters was better than any tackle they could have drafted.  Then they selected WR Jeremy Macklin with the 19th pick.  That was great value seeing many projected him as a top ten pick.  Some people were moaning about the selection, because he is the same player as DeSaun Jackson.  I'm not really seeing that.  Jackson is 6' 0" and 178 lbs.  Macklin is about the same height, but weighs 20 more lbs and is one of the fastest guys in the draft.  Granted, he isn't 6' 6".  H doesn't remind anyone of Calvin Johnson.   But for where they were selecting that was a great value pick and gives McNabb another target to throw the ball to.  That was a priority in this draft and taking a taller receiver that couldn't play as well doesn't help the Eagles or McNabb.  

I also like the addition of LeSean McCoy at running back to team up with Westbrook.  It gives them good depth in 2009 and possibly a replacement for the future.  Cornelius Ingram was a solid selection in the fifth round to give them more tight end depth.  Finally, the Eagles did good to trade a pair of fifth round picks for Ellis Hobbs who will help their secondary and return units.  Unlike the fifth round picks he will be able to contribute immediately.  

The Eagles most immediate concerns were on the offensive side of the ball and they found some players that will not only be the future of this team, but should be able to contribute this year.  It was a great draft for the Eagles and should allow them to compete in the NFC for another shot at the Super Bowl, provided that McNabb and Westbrook remain healthy this season.   I'm pretty sure the Giants and Cowboys didn't like what they saw happening in Philadelphia.  

3) Detroit Lions - I think the Detroit Lions did pretty well for themselves in this draft.  I like Stafford a lot better than Sanchez and I think Stafford was worthy of the number one pick.  The Lions now have a franchise quarterback to build around that can get Calvin Johnson the ball downfield.  They also drafted Brandon Pettigrew, who was by far the best tight end in the draft.  When you add that to Kevin Smith the Lions have a very nice nucleus on offense.  Don't underestimate the addition of Derrick Williams as a third or fourth receiver and in the return game.  I think he was a solid third round addition.  

The one downside is that the Lions allowed 517 points in 2008.  It's a defense that needed a lot of help.  It would have been nice to add at least one defensive player in the first round.  They did go defense in the second and third round with Louis Delmas, who many considered the best safety in the draft.  They also added DeAndre Levy out of he University of Wisconsin to add linebacker depth.  

What I like about the Lions draft is that they went into it with the right mentality.  They were 0-16 last year.  0-16 teams can worry about upgrading certain positions.  0-16 teams need to upgrade everywhere.  They got the best quarterback, tight end, and safety in the draft.  Those should be immediate upgrades from 2008.  They still have a long way to go, but you aren't going to fix a 0-16 team in just one draft.  They just tried to get players that were better than what they had on the roster and guys that they think can develop into stars.  If these draft picks work out the Lions will be more competitive in 2009 and beyond.

4) Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals selected three players that some people thought would be first round picks.  Furthermore, they didn't have to trade up to get any of them.  Their first selection was Andre Smith, the massive tackle out of Alabama.  He's a guy with some off the field concerns, but there is no questioning his talent.  If he dedicates himself in Cincinnati he could be a Pro Bowl tackle for the next ten years.  It should help Carson Palmer have more time to get rid of the ball.  

In the second round they added Ray Maualuga, whom many thought would be picked in the first round with his USC teammates Cushing and Matthews.   He should help upgrade the middle of their defense.  In the third round they selected Michael Johnson out of Georgia Tech.  He's another guy that had first round talent, but didn't always give first round effort.  Missouri tight end Chase Coffman could help their passing game and Cincinnati punter Kevin Huber won the Ray Guy award.  He could help their special teams.  

The one negative is that the Bengals went with talent over effort with a lot of these top picks.  That has been a problem in Cincinnati with some of their existing players.  You hope adding players with work ethic issues to a team that has some other guys like that doesn't deter the draft picks from working hard.  If these draft picks don't perform the Bengals are going to have what they have had the last three seasons.  Teams that look good on paper, but not on the field.  

5) San Francisco 49ers - The 49ers had to be jumping up and down when Michael Crabtree just fell to them at number ten.  It was partly the result of Oakland making a reach with Darrius Heyward Bay at the seventh pick and the Jaguars and Packers having more pressing needs.  Jacksonville could have used Crabtree, but wisely took Eugene Monroe, who some projected going to St Louis with the second pick.  Jacksonville needed to get lineman to help Maurice Jones-Drew run the ball.  Green Bay's deepest position was at wide receiver and they weren't about to trade down and lose out on B.J. Raji.  That left the 49ers with the best receiver in the NFL draft.  They also did well to trade this years second round pick with Carolina in exchange for Carolina's first round pick next year.   They were still able to add Glen Coffee in the third round who should be a great spell for Frank Gore.  That allowed them to build for now while nicely helping their future in the 2010 draft.  

The 49ers had needs on both sides of the ball.  But this is a team that just hasn't had a lot of firepower on the offensive side of the ball in recent years.   A more efficient offense is going to keep their defense off the field and put them in better positions.

Other than Frank Gore there hasn't been a lot to be scared of on the 49er offense. Many people feel Josh Morgan and Vernon Davis are ready to break out.  Michael Crabtree is the perfect player to bring in and should help those players have better seasons.  The 49ers have their first potential franchise receiver since Jerry Rice and TO left town.  The fact that they didn't have to trade a single draft pick to do that is a big victory.  The fact they came out of this draft with an additional first round pick in the 2010 draft helps their future.  If Coffee can contribute this year the 49ers have gone a long way to upgrading their offense, which they need to do if they are going to compete with the Cardinals and the Seahawks in this division.  I finally like the direction the 49ers are headed in.  

Losers

1) Oakland Raiders - The Raiders never cease to amaze me.  They are my undisputed loser of this draft.  They have the seventh pick in the NFL draft.  Yet that doesn't stop them from taking Darrius Heyward Bay out the of the University of Maryland.  Heyward Bay was projected by ESPN to be the 25th best player in the NFL draft.  He was the fourth ranked receiver in the draft.  Yet the Raiders selected him before both Michael Crabtree and Jeremy Macklin. Peter Schrager of Fox Sports had him going 29th in the draft to the New York Giants.  In other words the Raiders took a guy most people viewed as a late first round pick in the top of the draft.   Then in the second round the Raiders selected Michael Mitchell out of Ohio University.  Many of the ESPN analyst and NFL Network experts had him as a late round pick, although their were rumors reported by USA Today that the Chicago Bears had Mitchell targeted with the 49th pick, two selections after the Raiders.  Hard to say if they reached there.  

The last first round pick they hit a homerun with was Nnamdi Asomugha in 2003.  Russell and McFadden are still too early to tell.  Year after year I don't get what goes on in Oakland.  The focus seems to be more on 40 times and athletic ability than it does how well the guy played college football.  To me it appears that the Raiders don't even pay attention to college players until the combine.  The Raiders probably could have tried to trade down in the first round a couple times and still got Darrius Hayward-Bay.  I believe they really reached with these first two picks.  

The Raiders have a record of 24-72 since 2002.  If they had a better track record of success in recent years than maybe you could chalk it up to them knowing something everyone else doesn't.  Instead, it appears the Raiders are clueless once again.  They can't afford to keep missing on prospect after prospect, something they have done a good job at since 2003.   If this is a mistake it will continue to negatively affect the Raiders and put them in position to keep making mistakes with high draft picks in future drafts.

2) Washington Redskins - Maybe Dan Snyder didn't notice that his offense killed him in 2008.  They were 28th in points scored, 19th in yards gained, 17th in first downs gained, 23rd in passing yards, and 26th in passing touchdowns.  I already talked about their neglect of the offense in free agency when they signed Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall to mega contracts.  Now they used their 13th pick to select Brian Orakpo, a linebacker / end out of Texas.  

I have to be consistent.  I usually bash GMs for taking a need position rather than drafting the best available player.  At that point Orakpo was the best player on the board and I understand the move.  But you would think they would have gotten back to offense.  The Redskins spent their third, fifth, and sixth round picks on a cornerback, outside linebacker, inside linebacker.  Kevin Barnes has some good value at cornerback, but Cody Glenn was suspended this year and ranked pretty low at linebacker.  That might have been a slight reach.  They didn't get around to an offensive player until the 227th pick when they selected FB Eddie Williams out of Idaho.  They also WR selected Marko Mitchell with the 243rd pick.  

I just don't understand the thinking.  Washington averaged 12.5 points per game over the last eight games of the season.  It was a big reason they went 2-6 after starting 6-2.  You would think they would have wanted to add something to the offense, especially with Portis stating to get a little older and the career carries starting to tally up.  Without him they have very little offensive firepower.  I understand that they selected two wide receivers and a tight end in the second round last year.  The problem is that Devin Thomas put up the best numbers of those guys with 15 catches for 120 yards and zero touchdowns.  I don't see what they saw in those guys last year to make them think the youngsters will step in and contribute right away this year.  

Jason Campbell has been inconsistent, but part of the reason he is inconsistent is they don't surround him with enough talent to throw the ball to.  Santana Moss is very inconsistent and Cooley can only do so much at the tight end spot.  We'll see if all the trade talk motivates Campbell to have a big year in his final year of the contract and if he is able to make the jump to the top quarterback level.  If he doesn't the Redskins will continue to struggle on offense.  I think the attention they paid to the offense this off-season was unacceptable and puts them in a bad position to compete against a brutal NFC East.  The Giants had a much better team heading into the draft and did very well.  The Eagles also made a lot of improvements.  

3) New York Jets - I don't think a lot of people have the Jets here, but let me explain.  I'm not very high on Mark Sanchez.  No one thinks that a quarterback that is selected in the top ten is going to bust.  If people thought that the guy wouldn't be a top ten pick.  Here is an example.  Bob Jordan of the AP had this to say about a quarterback in the 2002 NFL draft.  "Assertive leader with good presence under pressure...Has the mobility to escape when the pocket collapses and shows a fluid lateral movement rolling out. REMINDS ME OF...TOM BRADY, New England: Patriots More elusive than Brady, but despite his youth, he's very cool under pressure and rarely forces the ball into traffic. Just look at his record as a starter (25-3) and you know quality is evident."

That player Bob Jordan was raving about was Joey Harrington.  The fact is that not every first round pick at quarterback become a good player, much less a Hall of Famer.  To just assume that the Jets found their quarterback for the next 15 years is assuming a lot.  

There are three things that trouble me about Sanchez.  First, he has only 16 starts in college.  If you look at the history of NFL draft busts it is littered with guys that didn't get a lot of college starts.  Akili Smith and Ryan Leaf are examples of that.  The reason is two fold.  One, good players start games and if a college quarterback is able to start as a freshman that is a good sign that he has talent.  But the bigger thing is that when a player starts 35 to 40 games there is lots of tape on them and it is easier for scouts to find weaknesses that will equal NFL futility.

The second issue I have is that he was injured quite a bit at USC.  How will he hold up when he starts getting hit by NFL lineman? I could see him being a big injury risk, which you don't want when you are taking a guy with the fifth overall pick.  

The third issue I have is that everyone is projecting him as a great West Coast quarterback.  What that tells me is that people aren't really sold on his arm strength as a college player, but like his accuracy and think he projects well to play in the NFL offense that requires the least arm strength.  Pete Carroll didn't think Sanchez was ready for the NFL yet and he's been a head coach in the NFL twice and coached defenses at that level.  That concerns me.  

Sanchez answered some of those questions with good combine numbers, but we'll see if he has enough arm strength with pads and 300 lb guys rushing at him in the NFL.  I just haven't seen enough to be sold. I think this is a guy that became a top five pick because of 413 yards passing in the Rose Bowl and some great workout numbers.  That makes me nervous.

Even taking all that into account the first round doesn't bother me in and of itself.  The Jets need a quarterback and it was going to take a first round pick to get Sanchez.  I get that.  But is it worth it to trade DE Kenyon Coleman, DB Abram Elam, QB Brett Ratliff, the No. 17 overall pick and the No. 52 pick?  Some people think that was a bargain, because it was just a second round pick and some lesser names.  Sometimes the lesser names in trades are the ones that comeback to kill you.

Then the Jets didn't do anything to upgrade their WR position.  They selected Doak Walker Award winning RB Shonn Greene, who they also traded up to acquire. The Jets traded the Lions their third-round (No. 76), fourth-round pick (No. 115) and seventh-round (No. 228 overall) picks to make that deal happen.  As a result their only other draft pick was G Matthew Slauson in the sixth round.

It just doesn't seem worth it to me.  They added no receiver help to replace Coles who left for the Bengals after being waived.  Their starting receivers of Cotchery and Stuckey are among the weakest starting WR units in the NFL.  They now have a quarterback with seven pro starts and another with 16 college starts trying to make it happen with a weak receiving unit.  If Sanchez develops this draft will be worth it.  If he doesn't it will be one of the worst in Jets history.  

I think this is a team that got so caught up in getting one player at the expense of the overall draft.  We'll see in three years if that was a good move or if they should have stayed at pick 17 and kept their players and picks.

4) Denver Broncos - The thing the Broncos were supposed to do in this draft was upgrade the front seven of a defense that allowed the 30th most points in the NFL.  When they traded Jay Culter to the Bears it was supposed to give them the picks they need to upgrade the defense, in particular their front seven.  So it only makes sense that they drafted a cornerback and safety in round two to go along with a tight end?  It also makes sense that their two fourth round picks were a safety and tight end?  

The only player they got to improve the front seven was their first round pick in Robert Ayers.  Some people are projecting him as a Justin Tuck type, which if that is the case he is a great value.  Still, they chose to add no other player to that front seven.

Don't get me wrong.  I think Knowshon Moreno was a fantastic value pick at number twelve.  They need a featured running back and he has the potential to fill that.  I like adding Richard Quinn at tight end to help their run blocking.  I like that they added a safety to learn under Brian Dawkins.  But on a team that needs lots of picks to fill holes on defense was it worth it to go from number 49 to number 37 in this years draft in exchange for sending a 2010 first round pick to Seattle?  I'm not seeing that at all.  That completely negates the gain they got of acquiring Chicago's first round pick in 2010.  Alphonso Smith better be a great player if that trade is going to be a win for Denver.    

I just don't understand how this defense is going to be that improved in 2009. It is imperative that this team stops the run better in 2009.  They are changing to a 3-4 defense, which will help some of their lighter players that got pushed around in the 4-3.  Ayers is a good pass rusher and you need those in a 3-4.  But the Broncos don't seem to have enough beef on the defensive line to keep their linebackers free.  They still seem a year away from fixing this front seven and are now without one of their two first round picks.  When you also consider that the offense isn't going to be as explosive without Jay Cutler it makes you wonder how Denver will win more than the eight games they did in 2008.  
 
While rookies don't necessarily bring a lot to the table in year one it would be nice to start this defensive rebuilding process this year so that they are in a better position to compete in 2009.  I'm not sure they accomplished that in this draft.

5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Same complaint I have with the Jets.  You don't know if Josh Freeman is going to work out or not.  They have Luke McCown, Brian Griese, and Byron Leftwich.  I understand why they wanted a first round quarterback.  But they gave up a sixth round pick to move up two spots that they probably didn't need to move up to get.  Definitely not as much as the Jets gave up to get Sanchez, but every pick is valuable. 

Most of the teams at the back of the draft didn't need a first round quarterback pick and it was going to take a huge package to get to Number 17 or 18 from the second round.  I'm of the belief that all picks are to be valued and I think Tampa threw away a sixth round pick in that deal and as a result will have to pay slightly more guaranteed money to Freeman, because he was selected two slots higher. 

The Bucs really needed to add defense.  I think by picking Freeman they ignored that.  Atlanta and New Orleans have very scary offenses headed into 2009 and the Panthers have arguably the best one two punch at running back in the NFL.  This team needs to improve their defense.  They cut loose a lot of their veterans, particularly at linebacker.  DT Roy Miller and DE Kyle Moore may help their defensive line, but probably not this year.  The Buccaneers selected no linebackers in the entire draft.  For a team that cut June and Brooks loose you would think that would be a higher priority.

This is another draft that will be determined a success or failure based on how Freeman works out.  I don't think he will start much this year, possibly at the end of the year when the Bucs are probably out of the playoff hunt.  To me he is Jason Campbell or Trent Edwards type with a little bit stronger arm.  He'll probably be a serviceable NFL starter, but I'm not seeing super star written all over him.  The Bucs may have been better off going with a defensive player that could help them this year and waiting until 2010 when Bradford and McCoy come out of college.  I think they may translate to better pro quarterbacks than Freeman will as they are more accurate and have enough arm strength to succeed on the NFL level. 

Now let's get to my favorite team, the Green Bay Packers.

Green Bay Packers - Let me start by saying that I love the selection of B.J. Raji.  ESPN had him ranked as the best defensive tackle in the NFL draft and the fourth best player overall.  Not only did they get the best available player, but at a great position of need.  At 6" 2" and 337 lbs he can step in and play the 3-4 defensive tackle spot.  He really helps upgrade their defensive line.  I think Ted Thompson hit a homerun with that pick and did the smart thing by taking him and not Crabtree.  I've been critical of Thompson in the past, but that was a great move.

Then just as I think Ted Thompson is in position to knock the draft out of the park the Packers did something that I don't quite understand.  They have A.J. Hawk, who is an outside linebacker that stands at 6" 1" and 245.  He is a muscular bulky linebacker that plays the outside.  So the Packers decide it would not only be a great idea to draft 6' 3" 240 lb Clay Matthews, but it was also be a good idea to trade up to the 26th pick in the first round and give up their 41st, 73rd, and 83rd picks.  The Packers also go the 162nd pick in the draft, which was in the fifth round. 

So let me get this straight.  A third round pick for Randy Moss is too much, because third round picks are to be treated as gold.  But Clay Matthews who has started one year at USC is not only worth a third round pick, but two third round picks?  Does anyone else see something wrong with that? 

Furthermore, New England has a need to get younger at linebacker and also plays 3-4.  You would think if they were that high on Matthews, who had slipped further than most people anticipated that they would have refused to make the trade and would have just picked him.  They had five picks in the top 100 already; so it wasn't like they needed to trade down to acquire more picks.  What does New England, the best front office in the NFL know about Matthews that made them decide not to pick him?

To me the Packers got the exact same player as A.J. Hawk.  When you ignore free agency you have to do better than that.  They had a lot of holes to fill.  In a year when everyone said it was a top heavy draft with picks 20 through 60 probably having the same value Ted Thompson does a 360 and trades up eliminating all their high third round picks in the process.  As a result they didn't pick again until the 109th pick, when the selected tackle T.J. Lang.  He may be able to start at tackle this year, but is probably going to be a backup.  They also selected FB Quinn Johnson with the 145th pick.  They are pretty deep at fullback, so I'm not understanding that pick considering their other needs.  The only justification I see is that they did struggle at times to score from the goal line and he is supposed to be a very good blocker.  We'll see if he can help in that area in 2009.

The Packers didn't add anyone of significance to their aging cornerback duo of Harris and Woodson and only got two offensive linemen to take the place of Tauscher, a fourth and fifth round pick no less.  You never know if these late picks will work out.  The man Lang may be replacing in Tauscher was a seventh round pick and was not expected to start his rookie year.  He not only started his rookie year, but game one of that season.  The Packers may have hit some homeruns at the end of the draft. 

Rarely do teams get the better end of the deal trading with New England.  I'm really curious why the Patriots decided they didn't want to take Matthews and were willing to move down in the draft and select a lot of other players, something that seemed like a pretty logical move.

It was a mixed bag for me.  They did too well to be in the loser category.  I love the drafting of Raji.  However, I don't have them as big winners, because I'm not necessarily sold on Matthews, although I think he is a safe pick.  He may not end up being a ten time Pro Bowler, but I think he is a guy that will stay in the league for a long time assuming he stays healthy.  Overall they were probably slightly above the middle of the pack in terms of how they handled their draft.   

I'm not sure how all these pieces are going to fit together in the 3-4.  Dom Capers is going to have a lot of work to do between now and opening day to implement that scheme change.  I am skeptical at best right now.   

What were your thoughts on your team's draft?  Did you like how they did or are you scratching your head?  Maybe a little bit of both?  I look forward to reading your comments about how your favorite team did in the draft.  

 

 

The NFL draft always creates a lot of excitement.  Here are ten things that I'm going to be looking at this upcoming weekend.

10) How much did Andre Smith hurt his draft stock by leaving the NFL combine? - It's difficult to say.  The kid made a mistake by not telling his group leader that he was leaving the combine early.  You can forgive that.  The problem is that not only did he leave the combine early, but also he was suspended from the Sugar Bowl for hiring an agent, thus forfeiting his college eligibility.  If that wasn't enough he had a very poor showing at his Alabama Pro Day.  There have been questions about his foot speed and his work ethic.   Now he has decided to fire his agent a week before the draft.  It's just a really bad mix.  

I don't get to scout every college player, so it's hard for me to say if I was a NFL GM that I wouldn't take the guy.  But based on everything I've read I wouldn't invest a top ten pick in Andre Smith, knowing I would have to pay $20.00 million guaranteed to a guy that might eat his way out of the NFL in two years.  If nothing else he hasn't shown that he doesn't have the maturity to handle guaranteed money like a top ten pick receives.  Imagine his potential for mistakes with $20.00 million on his ATM card.  He seems prone to dumb decisions at a time when he has every incentive to be making good ones.  

When Mel Kiper Jr. did his mock draft back on January 22, 2009 he had Andre Smith as the second pick in the NFL draft going to the St. Louis Rams.  I would be shocked if he goes there.  Kiper now has him going Number 13 to the Washington Redskins.  Todd McShay has him going Number 10 to the San Francisco 49ers.

The one team that seems prone to taking questionable players in the top ten is the Cincinnati Bengals.  They are selecting number six and could desperately use a left tackle.  I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up wearing a Cincinnati uniform after draft day is all said and done.  While he deserves to drop more Cincinnati and Smith may be a perfect fit, especially if Cincinnati hasn't learned from some of their past draft day mistakes.

09) How do B.J. Raji, Brian Cushing, and Clay Matthews fair now that they have been cleared of any wrong doing with regards to drug testing? - It's a shame that these guys had rumors started about them.  The rumor was that the failed drug tests, including steroid tests at the combine.  These guys have millions of dollars on the line and it is irresponsible that people would start unfounded rumors that these guys tested positive for drugs at the scouting combine.   The tests have since comeback and they were cleared of any illegal drug use.

B.J. Raji should be a top ten selection.  The Seattle Seahawks could use some help on the defensive line.  The Jacksonville Jaguars could use a replacement for Marcus Stroud, who went to Buffalo last year.  The Green Bay Packers need a 3-4 defensive tackle, which Raji could fill.  I don't expect him to fall past number nine.  There just aren't many NFL ready defensive tackles in this draft that can start this year.

Brian Cushing is a guy that people are projecting as being able to play both the inside and the outside linebacker position.  He is a great talent out of linebacker rich USC.  He could make a lot of sense for the Broncos, Saints, or Texans.  Those are three teams that really need to improve their defenses and linebacker units.  Cushing should still be selected in the tenth to twentieth area of the first round.  

Clay Matthews is a guy with a NFL bloodline.  His uncle is the Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews.  His dad Clay Matthews was a terrific linebacker for the Cleveland Browns.  He is probably going to go in the high teens to low 20s of the NFL draft.  I could see the Texans, Patriots, or Falcons going for him in the draft to fill their linebacker needs.  

08) Where does Ohio State Buckeye running back Beanie Wells go in the first round? - Here is why this is an interesting question to me.  The only teams in the top ten with a real need for a starting running back are Kansas City, Seattle, and Cleveland.  The problem is that all three of those teams select in the top five and Wells isn't being talked about as a top five talent.  If they don't reach for him here where does he go from there?  

The Washington Redskins at Pick 13 really need to think about a replacement for a still effective, but aging Clinton Portis.  That is unless they think Betts can regain his form from a couple years ago.  The New Orleans Saints at Pick 14 have Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas, but are they satisfied with those guys as featured runners?  Bush can catch, but he hasn't shown he can carry the ball 300 times a season.  Thomas has been good in spots.  The Chargers have Pick 16 and 30-year old LT that had to renegotiate his contract.  Darren Sproles probably isn't a 300 carry back either.  The New York Jets have a 31-year-old Thomas Jones with the same issue the Chargers have.  Leon Washington is dangerous, but not a 300 carry guy.  The Jets have to be thinking quarterback is a higher first round priority.  The Eagles and Patriots are also in the mix.   The Eagles have to worry about Westbrook turning 30 this year.  The Patriots can't be sold on Laurence Maroney staying healthy.  They signed Fred Taylor this off-season, but he is 32-years old.

There are plenty of teams that have to be thinking about replacing veteran running backs, by at least drafting the replacement this year and transitioning to the younger player.  The guy weighs 240 lbs and reportedly can run in the 4.4 range. Knowshon Moreno of Georgia is the only running back that also looks to be a first round prospect.  It will be interesting to see if the teams that need a running back are crazy enough about Wells to trade up for him or if they will just hold their position and hope he drops.  I predict he doesn't fall any further than the San Diego Chargers at the 16th pick.  They need a replacement for LT and he would look good in that offense with Sproles to compliment him as a third down back.

07) How does the injury to Michael Crabtree affect the other wide receivers in the first round? - This is another puzzling item.  The Seattle Seahawks needed a wide receiver before they signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  They don't have to select a receiver at that number four spot.  The Oakland Raiders are in the market for a receiver, but they always seem to value the top speed, which makes Jeremy Macklin an interesting selection.   The Rams have lost Torry Holt, but do they select Crabtree number two overall?  The Chiefs could use someone opposite Bowe, but again do they select Crabtree at number three overall?  Then there is Cleveland who may be trading Braylon Edwards to the Giants.  The Jags are expected to sign Torry Holt.  However, they could still use a young receiver?  Ted Thompson says he always selects the best available player.  If Crabtree is there at number nine does he hold true to that?  I would say probably not with all the needs they have on defense and the offensive line.  Finally, the 49ers need a number one receiver and are sitting at number ten.  

There are so many teams in the top ten that need a top receiver that I would be shocked if they all passed on him.  I think Cleveland is his most likely destination, followed by Jacksonville, and followed by San Francisco.  

The guy does have a foot injury, but it is not career threatening and he put up great numbers in college.  He had the look of a first round pick since his freshman year at Texas Tech.  If he slipped out of the top ten because of that injury I would be shocked.

06) What do the Green Bay Packers do in the draft to address their switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4?  - This has confused me quite a bit.  The Green Bay Packers fired their entire defense staff with the exception of Winston Moss, who was retained as the linebacker's coach.  They hired Dom Capers to implement a 3-4 defense.  Yet the only notable (and I use that term lightly) defensive player the Packers have added is backup safety Anthony Smith.  

Here is what amazes me with this philosophy.  When Bill Parcells, a Hall of Fame caliber coach who has done well in the front office with the Dolphins came to the Cowboys in 2003 he had a history of winning with the 3-4 defense that he used as the New York Giants head coach.  Yet he didn't switch to the 3-4 until 2005, because he didn't feel he had the personnel to play the 3-4 when he arrived in 2003.  

The draft he used to do that was the 2005 NFL draft when he selected LB/ DE DeMarcus Ware with the 11th pick, DE Marcus Spears with the 20th pick, LB Kevin Burnett with the 42nd pick, and DE Chris Canty with the 132nd pick.   He also signed NT Jason Ferguson and CB Anthony Henry in free agency.  All those picks and signings worked out with the exception of Burnett.  The only guy they moved in that scheme was Greg Ellis, who went from DE to OLB.  Three-time Pro Bowler Dexter Coakley, one Time Pro Bowler Marcellus Wiley, and DT Leonardo Carson were not retained.  LB Dat Nguyen and LB Alshermond Singleton were demoted.  Six time Pro Bowler DT La"Roi Glover was not retained the following year.  It was a major overhaul with lots of new starters, not moving all the existing players to different positions.  Yes, he wanted a new scheme, but he also wanted new and better players to run it.  Scheme changes only go so far.

The Packers have a number of problems.  First, they don't have two first round picks or three picks in the top 42 like Dallas did.  They have the ninth, 41st, 73rd and 83rd picks.  Second, they haven't signed anybody in free agency, whereas the Cowboys signed two defensive starters.  The Packers also have two corners that play bump and run that will now have to play more zone.  Terrence Newman was much younger in Dallas and better suited to switch to the zone coverage in a 3-4.  The Packers Charles Woodson was an average zone corner in Oakland and will be 33 in 2009.  Their other corner Al Harris will be 35.  

Not only are the Packers in major overhaul mode on the defense, but they also have problems at offensive tackle.  Mark Tauscher is 32 years old; coming off a season ending knee injury, and currently has not been resigned.  Chad Clifton is 33 years old.  Plus the picks they used on guards in the previous drafts have been inconsistent.  It would be nice to use picks to upgrade the offensive line. 

With so much cap room it's amazing they didn't add a few mid tier free agents with 3-4 experience to help ease the transition. Now their margin for error in the draft is none.  They need to duplicate the 1974 Steelers draft if they want to fill all these holes.  In all seriousness if they don't find at least three or four guys that can start in 2009 in this draft they are going to either have to either go with their entire front seven from last year in a new scheme or they are going to be scrambling to find replacements on the waiver wire.  Usually a scheme change of that magnitude requires more moves in March - May.  We'll see if Ted Thompson underestimated the difficulty of switching schemes in just one season with no help from free agency.

05) Does Julius Peppers get traded before the NFL draft?  -  I really don't think so.  The Patriots were rumored to be a destination, but nothing has happened on that front.  You would think that if the Panthers were that serious about trading him they would have done it already.  Peppers has a $16.683 million dollar hit on the Panthers cap number, which left them little to no room to sign free agents.  It hasn't helped them to hold on to him this long.

Julius Peppers has expressed the interest to play in a 3-4 defense.  The Packers are switching to a 3-4 defense, but I can't see Ted Thompson trading a number one pick.  Same thing goes for the Browns and 49ers.  They select too high to trade their number one pick.  

Julius Pepper's big problem is that he is going to be 29 years old.  Few teams are going to want to trade a top ten first round pick for a guy that is going to be 30 on January 18, 2010.   Furthermore, while Peppers had 14.5 sacks in 2008 he also had 2.5 in 2007.  That concerns some people as to whether he had a classic contract year or whether 2007 was an aberration.  Complicating matters is that the Panthers don't have a first round pick this year.  If they trade Peppers for a second or third round pick they might not be able to draft a replacement to start for him in 2009.  That could cripple their defensive line.  

Peppers just doesn't have any leverage.  He isn't going to sit out the season and forfeit a $16.683 million dollar payday.  The teams that need his services the most can't afford to trade for him.  In the end I expect Peppers will remain a Panther.  They will either agree to a long-term deal before training camp or work out a one year deal similar to what Haynesworth and Alexander negotiated guaranteeing that the Panthers cant' franchise him again in 2009 if he has another Pro Bowl year.  

Look for Julius Peppers to not move anywhere during the draft, unless someone in the top ten of the draft has a change of heart and decides to give up a top ten pick for his services.  

04) Which team is going to trade up in the NFL draft to select Mark Sanchez? - I don't read too much into the Redskins trying to trade Jason Campbell and picks to acquire Jay Cutler.  I'd be surprised if they want to develop another quarterback at this point.  I also think the Broncos will concentrate on their defensive rebuilding.  It makes no sense to trade for Kyle Orton if they are going to take a QB in the first round.  

The two interesting teams are going to be the New York Jets and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.  Matthew Stafford appears to be going to the Detroit Lions.  I'll discuss that later.  Sanchez is the number two quarterback.  The number three is Josh Freeman of Kansas State.  Do the Jets value Sanchez over Freeman by such a large margin that they are willing to go shooting up into the top ten to ensure they get Sanchez?  How high do they have to go?  Do they have to go all the way up to the four pick where Seattle is?  Do they have to jump in front of Jacksonville at eight or San Francisco at ten?  Can they trade with Denver at the 12th spot?   Perhaps they can wait for Sanchez to drop to them?  

Both the Bucs and Jets are weak at QB.  Brett Favre is gone from the Jets and Jeff Garcia is gone from the Bucs.  The Jets have Kellen Clemens and Brett Ratliff.  The Bucs have Luke McCown, Byron Leftwich, and Brian Griese.  Neither of those situations is ideal.  Having a young guy there to turn to at some point in 2009 or 2010 might be more comforting to those squads.  

It's just going to depend on whether they are 100% sold on either of these guys and how much they are willing to give up to ensure they get Sanchez.  That is going to be an interesting storyline for the Jets at Number 17 and the Bucs at #19.   If they trade up that could really alter how the first round plays out.  I would not be surprised if the Jets trade up in the first round, possibly with Denver or Jacksonville to ensure they get their man.

03) What are the New England Patriots going to do with all their draft picks? - The New England Patriots are in a fantastic position.  They possess the 23rd, 34th, 47th, 58th, 89th, and 97th picks in the draft.  That is one first round, three second round, and two third round picks.  If they do this right they are going to add six players that will contribute in 2009 to their roster.  That is an unbelievable advantage for a team that already has one of the deepest teams in the NFL.  

I think the big thing they have to retool is their defense.  Rodney Harrison is going to be 37 years old.  Tedy Bruschi is 36 is going to be 36 years old.  Adalius Thomas is going to be 32 years old.  Richard Seymour turns 30 years old this year.  They signed Shawn Springs to help in the secondary.  He is 34 years old.  Those are big names on the defense.  That is why I don't think they want to package those picks for Peppers.  It would make them really dangerous in 2010, but would further hurt their ability to get this defense back to a younger age, a problem they have had since 2006.

This draft is going to give them the opportunity to select a lot of young players to fill depth on this team in 2009 and possibly replace some of the veterans in 2010.  They also could afford to find a running back and some offensive line help.  The good news for the Patriots is that they don't have one area that is so weak that they have to come away with an upgrade.  This is literally a team that can select the best available player.  

When you consider that the Patriots are 39-9 over the past three seasons they are going to be a dangerous team again in 2009, provided Tom Brady can recover from his knee injury and they get these picks right.  Nobody does that better than the Patriots.  With the talent they already have in place the Patriots will remain a force in the AFC if they hit this draft out of the park.  

02) Do the New York Giants trade for a Wide Receiver or do they draft one? - The reason I think that Michael Crabtree is going to the Browns is because I believe Braylon Edwards will be traded to the New York Giants.  The Giants have tried going young at wide receiver.  They took Mario Manningham in the third round in 2008.  They took Steve Smith in the second round in 2007.  They took Sinorice Moss in the second round in 2006.  They just haven't been able to find that guy in the draft to become Manning's number two guy, much less his number one.  

The Giants select in the 29 spot of the first round.  Chances are they will find another guy that can develop into a potential Pro Bowl player in a year or two.  That doesn't help a team that is one receiver away from being the favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl in 2009.  They have everything else in place.

Edwards wants out of Cleveland.  The Browns are rebuilding with the Man Genius.  Why not make this trade?  It gets Cleveland some additional picks.  They can get a player that will embrace the city in Crabtree, not hate it like Edwards.  They can use the additional picks to sure up the defense or find a tight end to replace Winslow.  The Giants have to get this deal closed and the Browns need to rebuild.  Both teams win if this deal goes down.   That is why I expect it will happen soon.

01) Will Detroit select Matthew Stafford with the first pick in the NFL draft? - It think they have to.  Unless they have seen a red flag that indicates he will not be NFL viable, I don't see how you can pass on the kid.  Just because Joey Harrington was a bust doesn't mean Stafford will be.  You can't let a mistake cloud your judgment on every future first round quarterback prospect that comes through the draft.

The Detroit Lions all-time leading franchise passer is Bobby Layne with just 15,710 passing yards.  The last time he took a snap in a Detroit uniform was 1958.   The last quarterback they had that made a Pro Bowl in Detroit was Greg Landry back in 1971.  The last guy the Lions had throw 30 touchdown passes was Scott Mitchell back in 1995.  Since the NFL went to the six-team playoff format per conference in 1990 the Lions have had nine different quarterbacks lead the team in passing yards.  Joey Harrington has the most consecutive seasons in that time with four.   This team desperately needs a franchise quarterback.  They haven't had one since the 1950s.

I know people will say they need to draft an offensive tackle like Bill Parcells did with the Dolphins in 2008.  Parcells also benefited from being able to pick up Chad Pennington in August to rush his rebuilding effort.  The Lions can't count on Brett Favre coming back in 2009 and displacing another veteran quarterback, can they?    

Teams also make turnarounds by finding Triplets.  The Cowboys were 1-15 in 1989.  They won the Super Bowl in 1992.  That turnaround was executed by drafting QB Troy Aikman, RB Emmitt Smith, and WR Michael Irvin in the drafts leading up to that.  The 1997 Colts went from 3-13 to 13-3 in 1999 thanks to QB Peyton Manning, RB Edgerrin James, and WR Marvin Harrison.  The Atlanta Falcons made the playoffs last year by selecting Matt Ryan to add to free agent RB Michael Turner and WR Roddy White.  

The Lions have a real problem in terms of their division.  Aaron Rodgers looked like the real deal in 2008.  Cutler is now wit the Bears.  The Vikings are a quarterback away from competing for a Super Bowl title.  The Lions have to take advantage of their number one pick and find a quarterback that has the potential to measure up to the other teams in the division.  Could they find that in the sixth or seventh round?  Sure it has happened to other teams before.  But the best chance is to find a guy that was solid at college and has all the tools to be a solid pro.  That is what Matthew Stafford appears to be.  

As long as you don't select a Ryan Leaf you can accelerate the rebuilding quickly with the selection of a franchise quarterback.  Plenty of number one overall pick quarterbacks have pulled their franchises out of the dumps.   It's still a risk, but it is a necessary one.

The Lions can't afford to take a tackle and allow another team to select the next great quarterback.  Unless they are seeing red flags that says he can't play at this level they need to pull the trigger and select a guy to team with RB Kevin Smith and WR Calvin Johnson for the next ten years.  That will help them out of this decade long slump they have been in where they lose ten games or more almost every season.

So what are your thoughts?  What stories are you following headed into this NFL draft weekend?  What area or what player do you hope your team addresses?  Let me know your thoughts.

Hall of Famer John Madden decided to call it a career today after 30 years as a NFL announcer. Madden started his NFL career as an offensive lineman for the Philadelphia Eagles in 1958, but suffered a career ending knee injury after just one season. In 1967 he became a linebacker coach for the Oakland Raiders and assumed the head coaching position in 1969. He went 103-32-7 in ten seasons, which is a career winning percentage of .750. It's the best mark in NFL history. He won his only Super Bowl in the 1976 season. He retired from coaching in 1979 and never returned to the sidelines.

Since then he has been the most recognizable announcer in the NFL. He started calling NFC games for CBS shortly after he retired from coaching. Pat Summerall and John Madden quickly became the face of the NFL booth. They called games with CBS until 1994 and switched over to Fox Sports once they bought the rights to cover the NFC games. Madden left Fox Sports in 2002 to move over to ABC's Monday Night football, where he covered the games with Al Michaels. In 2006 Monday Night Football Moved to ESPN and NBC took over the Sunday Night Games. Madden and Michaels moved over to NBC that season.   The last game they announced was Super Bowl XLIII this season between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Arizona Cardinals. 

When you think of the face of the NBA you think of Michael Jordan from the 90s or Lebron James today.  When you think of the face of baseball you think of the New York Yankees and all their star players. Rarely does an announcer reach a point that that when you think of their sport the announcer's name is one of the first names that pops up in the conversation. But when you say NFL football I dare you to think of ten names before coming to John Madden.

This is a man that has totally transcended announcing to become a pop culture icon. EA Sports Madden NFL series is arguably one of the most successful video game franchises in the history of video games. There is a TV show on ESPN called Madden Nation where Madden fanatics compete against one another. There is also the Madden Bowl where NFL players and celebrities compete on Super Bowl weekend for the title of best Madden Player. The announcing of the cover for the Madden Game has almost become as big of a deal as the release of the NFL schedule or the NFL Draft. It has prompted talk of the Madden Curse, due to players suffering injuries or disappointing seasons once they are put on the cover. Frank Caliendo has made a nice living impersonating John Madden over the years.

The only announcer that I can think of that has reached that level of recognition on a national level is Milwaukee Brewer Announcer Bob Uecker, who became a celebrity with his Miller Lite commercials, Major League Movie appearances, and the sitcom Mr. Belvedere. You don't reach that level of popularity by not being one of the all-time greats.

John Madden revolutionized how the game was called. Even though he was a Hall of Fame Coach with an immense knowledge of the game he never made it too complicated. He was excited to have an opportunity to call the game and wanted to make it an enjoyable experience for the fans. He was great at taking complicated concepts to first time viewers, such as the chop block vs. a cut block, a zone defense vs. a man defense.  He could break it down for the audience in clear and simple terms. He was famous for his marker where he would scribble all over the screen to the point where he couldn't even tell what he was drawing.

It was no secret that John Madden hated flying. He even used that fear to his marketing advantage. In exchange for doing commercials for Greyhound Bus, they provided him with a special Madden Cruiser to drive to games. Anytime you went to a game where Madden was calling the game you looked for that big bus. Thanksgiving Day was always a great event, because he would have his Thanksgiving Turkey in the Madden Cruiser and would award a Turkey Leg or six to the players that he felt were the stars of that game. If your favorite player didn't win that award he might still be selected to the All-Madden Team. That was almost as big of an honor as the All-Pro team in the 1980s and early 1990s.

From a personal standpoint it will be very sad to not see him in the booth anymore. I started watching football in 1989. It didn't take too long for me to find my favorite announcing duo. I basically learned football as a grade schooler from John Madden and Pat Summerall. If there was something I didn't understand they were able to explain it. I remember reading his books One Knee Equals Two Feet (and Everything Else You Wanted To Know About Football)," and "One Size Doesn't Fit All." If you ever wanted the game explained to you in plain English and wanted to learn a history of the NFL there aren't two books better than those.

When people mention John Madden I will always think of Pat Summerall.  That's the announcer and the era with which he will always be known for.   In recent years he has become somewhat of a punch line. In the 1980s he was a 43 year old announcer that was able to keep up with the game. He is retiring at age 73. In the last five years he has slowed down to the point where he was just one of the best announcers, not head and shoulders the best announcer. Occasionally he talked so fast and got so excited you couldn't understand what he was saying. People loved to make fun of him for that. His "love affair" with Brett Favre has been well documented.

While I don't have a problem with that I think it became lost in the comedy that this guy is a legend in the booth. I think that is very true of the younger viewers that didn't get to watch Madden in his prime and know him more as a video game than a NFL icon.

It always amazed me that people jumped on him for his love affair with Brett Favre, because I remember a day when Packer fans hated John Madden, because he loved the Cowboys and the 49ers more than the emerging Packers. Never mind that he said if they were ever going to build a shrine for NFL football and play the most important game in the history of the league that it should be done at Lambeau Field. Never mind that his coaching hero was Vince Lombardi. He had too many nice things to say about the Cowboys and the 49ers.

The one thing John Madden loved is bad weather smash mouth football. He loved tough players and players that played the game the way it was meant to be played. If you pulled at those heartstrings he was going to love you for life. Emmitt Smith, Jerry Rice, Brett Favre...even when there skills had diminished to the point where they weren't the same players as their glory days they had a spot in John Madden's heart. He was a guy that loved to watch the best players play at the highest level of competition. He never could stop talking about guys that were able to do that. He was a fan in the booth.

One thing about the game is that it always goes on. The league has had great personalities before and it will have great personalities tomorrow. The league isn't bigger than any one individual. But the NFL has lost two mammoth personalities to retirement this year assuming Favre is done for good. Say what you want about Brett Favre, but there has never been a more popular and more loved player in the history of the NFL. Say what you want about John Madden but one announcer has never transcended the NFL the same way John Madden did. For the league to lose both of them to retirement in the same year is a shame.

The games will go on and the stars are in place to carry the game for years to come. That is not in question. But rarely do you find people that have that much joy and that much love for the game and what they are doing. With the announcement that John Madden is retiring from the booth the NFL became a little less fun today.

Thank you John Madden for 30 great years in the booth and best of luck in your retirement. The greatest compliment you can pay someone is that they will be missed. John Madden will be missed in the booth like few people have been missed in the history of professional sports.  The NFL will forever be in his debt for what he added to the legacy of the game.