After taking a couple weeks off for my vacation, I am back from my trip and ready to finish my division predictions.  This division along with the NFC West is probably the most wide-open division in the NFL.  The Steelers are a year removed from the Super Bowl title.  The Bengals are a year removed from the division title.  The Ravens are coming off a 13-3 season. The Browns had one of the busiest drafts in the NFL.  There should be a lot of debate from some very passionate fans about how this division will turn out.   Here is how I see the AFC North playing out this season.

Cincinnati Bengals

Strengths:  The Cincinnati Bengals have one of the most complete offenses in the NFL.  Carson Palmer had another brilliant season in 2006.  Despite coming back from a very serious ACL injury, Palmer threw for over 4,000 yards and 28 touchdown passes.  He had only 13 picks.  The one negative is that his completion percentage dropped from 67.8 percent in 2005 to 62.3 percent in 2006.  Still, he is arguably the third best Quarterback in the game, behind Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.  . Chad Johnson and TJ "Whose your Mama" form one of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL.  The Bengals ranked 8th in both scoring offense and passing offense.    Rudy Johnson has been a durable back that has topped over 1300 yards and scored over 12 touchdowns in each of the last 3 seasons.  The Bengals are in the conversation for having the best QB, RB, and WR combos in the entire NFL.  The only troubling thing on offense last season was that the Bengals as a team ranked 26th in rushing offense.  Kenny Watson was their second leading rusher with just 158 yards.  Chris Perry was limited to just 6 games last season.  The Bengals attempted to upgrade the backup running back position by drafting Kenny Irons out of Auburn.  He should be able to give the Bengals more depth at the running back position this season.  On defense, the one strength the Bengals have had over the last two seasons has been forcing turnovers.  They had 44 takeaways in 2005 and another 31 in 2006.  The Chicago Bears were the only team to better that 75 takeaway total over the last 2 seasons.  If they can return to their 2005 form, they should be able to improve on their disappointing 2006 season.   

Weaknesses:  The Cincinnati Bengals were the most disappointing team in the NFL last season.  This was a team that entered the season with Super Bowl expectations.  They started off the season 3-0, lost 5 of 6 games, won 4 consecutive games, followed by losing their last 3 games, and falling out of playoff contention.  This team lacked consistency.  The biggest example of this was their defense.  In their 4 game winning streak from November 19 to December 10th, the Bengals allowed 8.25 points per game.  Then they allowed 27 points in their 3 game losing streak to end the season.  The main weakness is the same as it has been the last 3 seasons.  Despite having a top 10 ranked scoring offense, the Bengals have finished no better than 17th in scoring defense the last 3 seasons.  Last season they ranked 31st in total yards.  The Bengals don't need to be as good as the Bears or the Ravens on the defensive side of the ball.  They need to get a lot of takeaways and keep the game competitive so that their high-powered offense can maintain balance.  Drafting Leon Hall should help their 31st ranked passing defense.  Jonathan Joseph looks to be a young player on the rise.  Getting Odell Thurman back should help their linebackers.  Justin Smith, Sam Adams, Dexter Jackson, and Deltha O'Neal are all proven veterans in this league.  The Bengals have the talent in place to be a good defense.  Marvin Lewis has an excellent defensive background.  The Bengals need the talent on paper to translate to production on the field. 

Prediction:   This is a very tough division to pick.  The Ravens are coming off a 13-3 season.  The Steelers are 1 year removed from a Super Bowl Championship.  The Browns have been both busy in the draft and the free agency signing period.  I think any fan could make an argument for their team winning the division, other than the Cleveland Browns.  That said, I think the Bengals will win this division.   Last season derailed for two main reasons.  1) Injuries to the offensive line.  The offensive line was injured very early in the season.  That contributed as much as anything to their early season collapse.  The season ending collapse had a lot to do with the schedule.  They had to close the season against Indy and Denver on the road, and Pittsburgh at home.  That was a brutal end to the season.  The Bronco game they lost on a botched extra point.  The Steelers game was lost in overtime.  The only teams that blew them out last season were New England and Indy.  This team lacked consistency and discipline, evidenced by all of the off the field arrests.   It cost them in a lot of close games.  While the offseason has not been entirely quiet, it seems to be getting better.  However, losing Chris Henry for the first 8 games is a big loss.  Despite having only 36 receptions, he did score 9 touchdowns.  Antonio Chapman, Tab Perry, and Glenn Holt will have to step up in his absence.  The Bengals should have enough talent at the skill positions to survive his absence.  The key for the offense will be keeping the offensive line healthy and replacing Steinbach.  The beginning of the season is tough.  They draw Baltimore, at Seattle, and New England in three of the first four weeks of the season.  After that it is a mix of tough divisional games and some games that appear to be easier, such as Buffalo, Miami, Arizona, Tennessee, and Kansas City.  The big advantage they have over the Ravens is not drawing Indy and San Diego.  If the Bengals can get out of the gate early, their second half schedule appears to be a lot easier than Baltimore and Pittsburgh.  That should put them in position to win the AFC North title.      

Record:  10-6, AFC North Division Title, AFC #4 seed 

Baltimore Ravens

Strengths:  The strength of this team is the same as it has been since their 2000 Super Bowl title.  The Ravens have had one of the best defenses in the NFL over that span.  They have ranked outside of the top 10 in defensive yardage and scoring only once, which was in 2002.  They have ranked in the top 5 in scoring defense 3 times and yardage 5 times in that time span.  The secondary is loaded.  McAllister, Rolle, Landry, and Reed may be the NFL's top secondary.  The Denver Broncos are the only other team in the discussion.  Suggs, Scott, and Lewis are fantastic linebackers.  Pryce, Gregg, and Ngata make up a very solid defensive line.  They lost only one starter one the defensive side of the ball, but he was a big one in Adalius Thomas.  Still the Ravens should have enough talent on their roster to be among the leagues best defensive units.  While the offense is not stellar, the Ravens do have some good parts.  Steve McNair is a steady veteran that manages the game well and has a knack for pulling out late game heroics.  Jonathan Ogden is always among the top tackles in football, Todd Heap is always among the leagues top tight ends, and Willis McGahee should offset the loss of Jamal Lewis. 

Weaknesses - The weakness of this team is the same as it has been since the 2000 Super Bowl title.  The Ravens have had one of the least potent offenses in the NFL over that span.  The last 3 seasons saw them finish outside of the top 20 in total yards.  The reason the Ravens were able to improve from 2005's 6-10 mark to 13-3 last season was very simple.  The defense improved from number 10 in points allowed and number 4 in yardage to number one in both categories.  That combined with the arrival of Steve McNair allowed the offense to jump from 25th in scoring offense to 12th.  The concern with this team is that the offense still lacks explosiveness, and many of the key players on both sides of the ball are reaching the ends of their career. Odgen has 11 years of experience, McNair has 12 years, and Mason has 10 years of experience.  While Steve McNair was a welcome addition over Kyle Boller, McNair barely topped 3,000 yards passing, had only 16 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions.  Not exactly explosive numbers.  Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason are very average receivers.  Mason had only 750 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Clayton had 939 yards and 5 scores.  The Ravens attempted to improve their offense by adding two guards, Grubbs and Yanda.  They also added wide receiver Yamon Figurs of Kansas State.  While many will point to the addition of Willis McGahee, Lewis had more attempts, yards, and touchdowns, while averaging only 0.2 yards less per carry.  I think the Ravens had to take this gamble.  Lewis was clearly on the decline and they needed a change.  However, while McGahee was hurt last season, he has not been able to put together anything close to his rookie season.     

Prediction: Baltimore has a couple of obstacles.  1) How does another year of age affect this veteran squad?  Ray Lewis and Steve McNair are very tough football players.  Both were able to play most of the snaps last season.  Both have had injury concerns in recent seasons.  Do these two stay healthy this season or does age catch up with them?  2) The schedule is brutal.  After their week 8 bye they draw at Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Cleveland, at San Diego, New England, and Indy.  Even for the best teams in the league, that could be a 1-5 stretch.  Then they travel to Miami and Seattle, before closing at home against Pittsburgh.  The key to the Ravens season is that they must start hot.  They can't go into that bye at 4-3 and expect to catch fire against that schedule.  3) How are they going to generate more offense?  In 9 of their 2006 regular season wins, the Ravens allowed 14 points or less.  The Ravens scored over 30 points only 2 times.  To put that in perspective with the other top teams in the AFC, the Chargers did it 7 times, the Colts did that 6 times, and the Patriots did it 5 times.    While the Ravens defense was stellar, they lacked the offensive firepower to advance in the playoffs.  The only key addition I see on offense was the addition of Willis McGahee over Jamal Lewis.  That is probably a wash.  McGahee has failed to put together a season like he did in 2004.  I don't see him putting up 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns.  If he can get 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns, while averaging over 4 yards a carry, I think the Ravens would be ecstatic.  I think the Ravens defense is among the tops in the league and will keep them in most games and in the playoff race.  However, I think age to key players, a brutal second half schedule, and the lack of adding anything of significance to the passing game will prevent this team from repeating the success of last season. 

Record: 9-7, 2nd AFC North, No Playoffs

Pittsburgh Steelers

Strengths:   It's hard to look at past trends with this team, because for the first time in 15 seasons, the Steelers have a new head coach.  Gone is Bill Cowher and in is Mike Tomlin.  The Steelers have a lot of good players coming back, especially on the offensive side of the football.  Hines Ward is as complete of a receiver as there is in the National Football League.  He is always around the 1,000-yard mark; he catches touchdowns, and blocks as well as any receiver in the National Football League.  Willie Parker had a breakout season, with 1,494 yards and 13 touchdowns.  Ben Roethlisberger was amazing his first two seasons, advancing to the AFC Championship and Super Bowl title, before coming back to earth last season.  While he threw for 3,500 yards, he threw only 18 touchdowns against 23 interceptions.  Big Ben gets a pass for last season, due to the motorcycle accident he had in the offseason and the appendectomy he had to start the season.  Everything went wrong for the Steelers to begin the season, and it showed with a 2-6 start.  They were able to salvage the season by ending it 6-2.  By that point, they had played themselves out of contention in a brutal AFC.  This season he needs to settle down and make the good decisions that allowed the Steelers to be successful their first two seasons in the NFL.  On defense, the Steelers were 9th in total defense and 3rd against the run.  James Farrior and Troy Polamalu are among the best players at their positions. 

Weaknesses:  The main weakness of the Steelers was their - 8-turnover differential, which was good for a tie at 27th in the league.  The Steelers have to get back to what made them a championship contending team in the Bill Cowher era.  They need to run the football, use Big Ben's abilities to stretch the field, and take care of the football.  They need to play better defense.  The Steelers defense was a mixed bag last season.  While the Steelers were 9th in total defense and 3rd against the run, they fell to 20th against the pass.  It is hard to imagine that the Steelers are going to improve against the pass this season.  They released Joey Porter this offseason.  While he was getting older, he was the heart and soul of their pass rush.  Only the future will tell whether releasing him was the right move.  The Steelers attempted to replace him by drafting Lawrence Timmons in the first round.  The Steelers also bring back the same secondary they had in place last season.  Besides Troy Polamalu, the rest of the secondary has question marks.  Ike Taylor needs to justify his large contract extension last offseason.  Townsend and McFadden will also be back in the secondary.  While Tomlin was great at coaching the run defense, he ran the league worst pass defense in Minnesota.  It will be interesting to see how that translates to a very similar situation in Pittsburgh.

Prediction:  I think this team is heading in the wrong direction after just a year removed from the Super Bowl.  I think the Steelers would have been much better served to retain either Ken Whisenhunt or Russ Grimm.  Instead, they chose to hire a relative unknown in Mike Tomlin.  While he put together the league's best run defense, the Vikings ranked 14th in points allowed and last against the pass.  They were 25th in sacks.  The team finished 6-10.  I think the Steelers would have been much better served to hire a proven assistant familiar with the organization, rather than hire a coordinator whose defense was stellar in some areas and dreadful in others.  This is another team that had best start fast.  Week 5 has a visit from Seattle, followed by a bye.  After the bye the Steelers are at Denver, at Cincinnati, and host Baltimore.  They play the Jets, Bengals, Patriots, Jaguars, Rams, and Ravens in the second half of the season.  It is conceivable the Steelers could end their season 3-5.  Therefore they have to beat Cleveland twice, Buffalo, and Arizona at the beginning of their schedule if they even want to think about contending for the playoffs.  While some of the pieces are in place from the Championship team a year ago, I think this team is clearly in a state of transition.  While I do not believe they will bottom out this season, I look for this team to struggle a bit this season.  The improvement in this team will be that they shouldn't start out 2-6 and finish 6-2.  They will be more consistent.  The downside is that I don't see that being reflected in their overall record. 
    
Record:  8-8, 3rd Place AFC North, No Playoffs

Cleveland Browns

Strengths:  The strength of this team is that they finally have a young nucleus that they can build around.  Brady Quinn appears to be about as much of a sure thing as a pro team could draft from the college ranks.  While it will take time for him to develop, he put up great college numbers and was tutored under a head coach who knows a thing or two about developing pro quarterbacks.  Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow are young developing targets.  Joe Jurevicuious and Jamal Lewis provide a veteran presence to this young roster.  Joe Thomas also looks to be a very sure thing on the offensive line.  Signing Eric Steinbach from the Bengals provides a strong left side of the line.  While they probably overpaid for Eric Steinbach, he should help in both the running game and pass protection. 

Weaknesses:   When you are coming off a 4-12 season, the weaknesses are lengthy.  For starters, they had a -15-turnover differential, which was second to last in the league.  It would be hard to believe the Browns will improve on that this season.  Neither Frye nor Anderson appears to be a long-term answer at quarterback.  I would expect that either of them would continue to make mistakes.  If they go with Quinn out of the gate, he is a rookie.  Rookie quarterbacks throw a high amount of interceptions.  Their rushing offense was 31st in the league last season.  Adding Steinbach and Lewis should improve on that total.  However, Lewis has been averaging below 4 yards per carry.  It will be interesting to see if the once dominant runner can restart his career in Cleveland.  While the pass defense was promising, the rush defense was a dreadful 29th in the league.  The Browns have some nice pieces on defense.  McGinest and Washington are solid veterans.  Kamerion Wimberly had 11 sacks last season.  Sean Jones and Daven Holley each had 5 interceptions.  Eric Wright should be a solid addition to the secondary.  Again, there are a lot of nice parts on this team, but they need the time to develop and grow together.  The bad thing for Cleveland is that a bad season will not result in a high draft pick, as the Browns traded that pick to Dallas to acquire Brady Quinn.  Still that was the right move.  Brady Quinn is as good as any first round pick the Browns could acquire next season, and the Browns need to add a face to their franchise that the fan base can be excited about.

Prediction:  For the first time in a long time, I think Cleveland fans should be excited about their future.  Since making the playoffs in 2002, the Browns have not finished over 6-10.  They have failed to finish higher than 27th in scoring offense.  Thomas and Steinbach should be anchors on this offensive line.  Quinn should be a Pro Bowl Caliber Quarterback and the eventual face of the franchise.  Edwards and Winslow are two young targets who have had off the field issues but a world of potential.  Lewis is still young enough to be an effective runner.  The offense is headed in the right direction.  If the offense can start carrying its weight, that alone will help the defense.  It is hard to be an effective defense, when your offense is running three plays and punting the ball on a good series.  It is hard to be an effective defense when you finish 10th in the league in interceptions, yet finish second to last in turnover differential.  That is one reason the Browns have been so bad at stopping the run.  The offense never gets far enough ahead to force the other team to abandon the run.  The Browns won their 4 games last season by a combined 17 points.  They only scored above 30 points one time, and failed to crack 10 points on 5 occasions.  No defense is going to be effective under those circumstances.  The problem is that Romeo Crennel needs to win this year.  He has had a 6-10 and 4-12 season to start his coaching career.  Coaches traditionally get three years to turn a franchise around before getting a pink slip.  The Browns biggest problem is the division they play in.  If they played in the NFC North, and the Packers were in the AFC North, the Browns could perhaps contend for a playoff spot, while the Packers would be staring at last place.  The Browns have to play at New England, at NY Jets, and at St. Louis.  They play home games against Seattle and San Francisco.  That schedule to go along with six games against the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals seems to be too much for this young team to overcome.  They have some winnable games against Oakland, Miami, Buffalo, Houston, and Arizona.  Realistically the Browns are not going to improve much on their 2006 record.  The good news is that with a young nucleus in place, combined with the Ravens and Steelers appearing to be in decline, the Browns should be a contender in this division by 2009.  The sad thing is that Romeo Crennel probably won't be around to enjoy the foundation he has helped build. 

Record: 5-11, Last Place AFC North, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the AFC North predictions.  I will try to post the AFC South sometime next week.