On May 15th it was announced that Colt's 70-year old Offensive Coordinator Tom Moore and 67-year old Offensive Line Coach Howard Mudd have retired from the Indianapolis Colts. There main reason for retiring according to the USA Today was changes in the leagues pension plan.  It is possible that if the league makes corrections to the pension policy that the two could return to the team later this off-season. Otherwise if a resolution is not reached, the two may return to the team as special consultants once training camp starts.

Peyton Manning has had as much stability in his coaching staff as any Hall of Fame caliber quarterback in recent history.  This is a major adjustment for Peyton Manning.  The only two head coaches he's had since coming into the NFL in 1998 have been Jim Mora from 1998 to 2001 and Tony Dungy from 2002 to 2008.  It was going to be a big enough adjustment having Dungy gone and Jim Caldwell in his place.  Tom Moore was the only offensive coordinator Manning had ever had.  Howard Mudd is the only offensive line coach the Colts have had since Manning was drafted in 1998.

It's amazing that they have been able to keep this continuity.  Most times when an offense is as successful as the Colts for as long as the Colts have been successful the result is coordinators that become head coaches.  The Colts were lucky that Moore and Mudd were in their late 50s when Peyton Manning got there, but also didn't have any ambitions to become head coaches.  The result has been this continuity, which has been a big benefit to the Colts.  

Many fans are going to take two extreme positions.  Many of the people that are big fans of Peyton Manning are going to dismiss this as nothing more than a bump in the road.   Many of the people that don't like Peyton Manning are going to be predicting doom and gloom.  

I personally don't think the losses would be a huge deal, except for the fact that they are all coming in the same season.  Successful teams lose coordinators all the time.  That's life in the NFL.  Except for the Colts in recent years. This coaching staff has been there for all of 12 win or more seasons since 2003.   The Colts veteran players are going to have to step up to fill that void and that starts with their leader, Peyton Manning.  

As I said, Peyton Manning is hardly the first Hall of Fame quarterback to loose either a coordinator or head coach after a successful season.  Most great quarterbacks have to go through staff changes because their good play results in their coordinators getting better jobs.  Joe Montana lost Bill Walsh to retirement after the 1988 season.  George Seifert became the head coach and Mike Holmgren became the offensive coordinator.  Troy Aikman lost Jimmy Johnson when he resigned and Norv Turner left for Washington to coach that team the same season.  Steve Young lost Mike Shanahan to the Broncos after the 1994 season.  Brett Favre lost Mike Holmgren to Seattle, who was basically the Packer play caller after the 1998 season.  Finally, Tom Brady lost Charlie Weiss to Notre Dame after the 2004 season.

So how did they do the year after?  Let's take a look.  

32-year old Joe Montana 88: 13 starts, 8-5 record, 238 comp, 397 attempts, 59.9 comp %, 2,981 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 87.9 QB rating.  No Pro Bowl Selection

33-year old Joe Montana 89: 13 starts, 11-2 record, 271 comp, 386 attempts, 70.2 comp %, 3,521 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, 112.4 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection & MVP of the NFL


27-year old Troy Aikman 93: 14 starts, 11-3 record, 271 comp, 392 attempts, 69.1 comp %, 3,100 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 6 interceptions, 99.0 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection

28-year old Troy Aikman 94: 14 starts, 10-4 record, 233 comp, 392 attempts, 64.5 comp %, 2,676 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 92.3 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection


33-year old Steve Young 94: 16 starts, 13-3 record, 324 comp, 461 attempts, 70.3 comp %, 3,969 passing yards, 35 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 112.8 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection & MVP of the NFL

34-year old Steve Young 95: 11 starts, 8-3 record, 299 comp, 447 attempts, 66.9 comp %, 3,200 passing yards, 20 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, 92.3 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection


29-year old Brett Favre 98: 16 starts, 11-5 record, 347 comp, 551 attempts, 63.0 comp %, 4,212 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, 87.8 QB rating.  No Pro Bowl Selection

30-year old Brett Favre 99: 16 starts, 8-8 record, 341 comp, 595 attempts, 57.3 comp %, 4,091 passing yards, 22 touchdowns, 23 interceptions, 74.7 QB rating.  No Pro Bowl Selection


27-year old Tom Brady 04:  16 starts, 14-2 record, 288 comp, 474 attempts, 60.8 comp %, 3,692 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 92.6 QB rating.    Pro Bowl Selection

28-year old Tom Brady 05: 16 starts, 10-6 record, 334 comp, 530 attempts, 63.0 comp %, 4,110 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 interceptions, 92.3 QB rating.  Pro Bowl Selection


Looking at those guys in most cases there is quite a bit of fall off in the first season.  The biggest thing that usually drops is efficiency.  Favre had a 13-point drop in his rating from 1998 to 1999.  Young took a 20-point drop, but part of that was because he was at a ridiculous 112.8 QB rating the season before.  Aikman took a 7-point drop.  Brady was basically unaffected dropping only 0.3 in his rating, but the Patriots lost four more games. 

Montana actually went on to have his best season of his career in the midst of that transition.  Montana was the only quarterback that improved both his passing stats and his team's win totals.  They also won their second straight Super Bowl.  That was San Francisco in those days.  Lose Bill Walsh and promote Mike Holmgren from quarterbacks coach to offensive coordinator.  Promote George Seifert to head coach.  Everyone they seemed to hire in those days went on to be a very successful.  

Peyton Manning isn't going to forget how to play quarterback without Tom Moore and Tony Dungy. An advantage for the Colts is that Peyton Manning has as much responsibility as any quarterback in the league.  He calls more plays on his own and does more audibling at the line of scrimmage than any quarterback in the NFL.  But I think you are kidding yourself if you don't think there is going to be some drop off in production, especially in the efficiency of that offense.  

Eventually they will get their timing back down.  All of the quarterbacks I listed ultimately adjusted.  Brady went on to have 50-touchdown passes in 2007 without Weiss.  Favre would regain his swagger in the Mike Sherman and later Mike McCarthy regimes.  Steve Young would go on to be as good as ever with Steve Mariucci.  Troy Aikman returned to the Super Bowl and won it in 1995.  Joe Montana never missed a beat.  But with the exception of Montana there was a drop off in the first year after the staff left, either in the quarterback's efficiency or in the wins and losses for the team in the case of Tom Brady.   I would expect that there would be an adjustment period at the beginning of the 2009 season for the Colts.  The question is how long will that period last.  

Even though Peyton Manning won the MVP award last year few people realize that his statistics have steadily been declining for the last five seasons.  His QB rating has gone 121.1 to 104.1 to 101.0 to 98.0 to 95.0 over the last five seasons.  His yards per attempt have gone from 9.2 to 8.3 to 7.9 to 7.8 to 7.2 in that span.  His yards have also decreased the last three seasons from 4,397 to 4,040 to 4,002.  

There is no denying that even Peyton Manning in slight decline is better than almost every other quarterback in the league.  That is evidenced by his MVP award last year.  31 other franchises in the NFL wished they had to deal with that type of problem.  But it begs the question do these changes make that decline worse, does it progress the same way it has been, does he hold steady, or his he due to get back to the guy that was in the 100s for three straight years from 2004 to 2006?  

The fact is that Peyton Manning isn't getting any younger.  Not only is he now 33-years old, but also he has also just completed his 11th NFL season.  He has yet to miss a single start.   He currently ranks tied for sixth in NFL history in wins by a starting quarterback.  With the exception of his knee problem last year he has been relatively healthy.  But he also has a lot of mileage on his NFL tires.

The Colts have a lot of questions going into this season.  How does the team deal with not having Head Coach Tony Dungy?   Can Joseph Addai recover from a season with only 544 yards rushing and five rushing touchdowns?  Can the 30-year old Reggie Wayne rebound from a down year that saw him with 82 catches for 1,145 yards and six receiving touchdowns?   Other than the 22 sacks generated by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis the rest of the team generated only eight sacks.  Can the defense improve on that?  Finally can the Colts improve on their 24th ranked rushing defense?  Now they have to deal with the loss of two long time offensive coaches.

I believe for the Colts to return to division champions in 2009 Peyton Manning is going to have to have one of his best seasons.  Not 2004 good, he could probably never do that again, but 2005 or 2006 good.  If his rating drops into the low 90s or the high 80s, I'm not sure the Colts have enough talent on their coaching staff and their roster to survive that.   That was probably the case even with just Tony Dungy gone.   Remember, despite their 12-4 season from a year ago this was a team that looked dead in the water after a 3-4 start.  It is certainly not a 12-4 team without issues.

That job just got a little more difficult with Tom Moore and Howard Mudd no longer on the coaching staff.  If there is any quarterback that is up to the task it's Peyton Manning.  Many thought his numbers would suffer once Edgerrin James was no longer on the team.  That didn't happen.  Many thought those numbers would significantly decline when Marvin Harrison declined.  That hasn't happened.  We'll see how he responds to these latest challenges.  

I think Peyton Manning will have another 3,900 to 4,000 yards passing and be around 25 touchdown passes. But I also think his rating is going to drop a little bit and probably be in the low 90s.  That's still pretty good and when you have Peyton Manning throwing the ball well you always have a chance to win.   The Colts will still be in the playoff hunt.  I'm just not sure if the Colts are going to have that 12-4 to 14-2 record that we are accustomed to them having in recent years.  I'll save my final prediction on the Colts record until I release my division previews later this off-season.

What are your thoughts?  Do the losses of Dungy, Moore, and Mudd mean nothing?  Are the Colts still Super Bowl contenders of did they take a step back this off-season?  Are the Colts possibly in for doom and gloom this year.  Let me know your thoughts.  

For those of you that regularly read my blog.  I don't plan on writing an article next week Tuesday with the Memorial Day Holiday taking up a lot of time that I usually use for writing.  I plan on having an article posted again on Tuesday, June 2nd.  I will be responding to comments left on this article.  Enjoy your Memorial Day Weekend.