The NFL has had a lot of surprising developments in 2008. Brett Favre wearing Green and White over Green and Gold has been a strange occurrence to say the least. Watching Matt Cassel throw touchdown passes instead of reigning MVP Tom Brady has taken some getting used to. Seeing the Arizona Cardinals on the verge of clinching a division title is something that fans under 35 years old don't remember seeing in their lifetime. To see them have a 4 game lead with 6 games to play is shocking news out of The Desert.

However, one story that is flying under that radar has been the sudden fall of the Seattle Seahawks reign over the NFC West. While I actually picked the Cardinals to win the NFC West and had the Hawks sitting at 8-8, missing the playoffs by one game I could never have imagined the Seahawks losing their 8th game in Week 11.

One reason this is such a shocking development is because of Mike Holmgren. Holmgren became a head coach for the first time in 1992 when he took over the Green Bay Packers. He has just two losing seasons in the NFL. That would be a 6-10 campaign his second year with the Seahawks back in 2000. He also finished 7-9 in 2002. His career winning percentage headed into this season was 157-99 or .613.

Holmgren has won 7 division titles, coached in 4 NFC Championship Games, appeared in 3 Super Bowls, winning his only title back in 1996. He is one of only five coaches to lead two different franchises to the Super Bowl. The others are Don Shula, Dick Vermeil, Bill Parcells, and Dan Reeves. He has coached the MVP of the NFL in 4 different seasons. Brett Favre in 1995, 1996, and 1997 and Shaun Alexander in 2005.

There are not many coaches that can say they coached a quarterback that passed for 30 touchdowns 5 straight years and coached a running back that rushed for 14 touchdowns 5 straight years. Most coaches are known for having a running mentality or a passing mentality. Mike Holmgren has coached offenses that finished in the top 10 in points scored 9 times and in yards gained 10 times. He has done it with both pass oriented teams and run dominated teams. This is one of the best offensive minds the NFL has seen over the last 25 years. He is one of the best coaches at taking his West Coast Offensive philosophy and using it to the strengths of his team.

His coaching tree is legendary. There are two main coaching trees that dominate the NFL today. The Bill Parcells tree and the Bill Walsh tree. No assistant has helped the Walsh tree expand as much as Mike Holmgren. Jon Gruden, Andy Reid, Steve Mariucci, Dick Juron, Marty Mornhinweg, Mike Sherman, and Ray Rhodes have all coached under his tuitilage either in Green Bay or Seattle. All were given NFL head coaching jobs based on their performances as his assistants.

So given that list of accomplishments it seems unbelievable that in his last season coaching the Seahawks that his team would lay an egg like they have. Holmgren was pretty much a lame duck coach in 1998 when he left Green Bay for Seattle. That team was able to finish 11-5. I refuse to believe that Mike Holmgren has packed it in. You don't have the level of success he has had in the NFL without a 100% commitment to winning.

There are a number of things that have gone wrong in Seattle this season. Here would my top 5 reasons why Seattle is struggling in 2008.

1) Injuries at the Quarterback & Wide Receiver - It is one thing to have a lot of injuries. It is another to have them concentrated on one side of the ball. Matt Hasselbeck has missed 5 games this season with an injury. Deion Branch is coming off an ACL tear. He has not been at full strength for much of the year. Bobby Engram was injured in training camp and missed the first 3 games of the NFL season. Nate Burleson injured his knee in the opener and has been out for the year. Maurice Morris missed 3 games. He is their big receiving threat out of the backfield. It got so bad they had to sign Korren Robinson and Kerry Colbert off a waivers just to get someone on the roster that could catch the football.

Every team has injuries and every team's fans love to use the injury excuse as a reason for why their season went bad. Usually it is just an excuse for poor play. The Seahwawks are a team I will give a pass to for their injuries at the start of the season. They would not be 9-2 if their players hadn't gotten hurt. This is a team that is in decline. However, if they had had everyone healthy from the opening whistle they are probably between 4-6 and 6-4, and still competing for a wild card spot. Injuries are a signifigant reason why this team is 2-8.

2) Inability to Replace Shaun Alexander - Julius Jones was supposed to be the back that was going to save Seattle from the pain of having to replace the best running back in franchise history, Shaun Alexander. Julius Jones has not delivered on that 4 year contract he signed last spring. He has 139 carries for 616 yards with 2 touchdowns and a 4.4 yards per carry average. He has also added 14 receptions for 66 yards.

I warned people in the preseason that the Seahawks had not found Alexander's replacement. I warned that he would be lucky to break 1,000 yards rushing. At this pace he will finish with 985 rushing yards. The Seahawks as a team rank 19th in rushing yards and 19th in rushing touchdowns. That's just not enough production, especially considering the injuries they have had in the passing game. Seattle needed a running game that could carry them through those injuries. Instead, they have a below average ground game that isn't helping them move or score the ball.

3) Not resigning Steve Hutchinson back in 2006 - This is the move that I feel was the beginning of the end in Seattle. Hutchinson was only entering his 6th season at the time. He had been a 3-time Pro Bowler and 3-time All Pro. Walter Jones and Hutchinson formed the cornerstone of the left side of the line that helped block for Alexander during that 2005 MVP season that saw Seattle go to the Super Bowl. By naming him a transition player instead of a franchise player they allowed Minnesota to get creative in the contract they offered Hutchinson and made it impossible for Seattle to match the contract. Had Seattle matched the contract they would have had to guarantee the entire contract, thus destroying their salary cap. There was a provision that if Hutchinson was not the highest paid lineman on his own team, that the entire contract would be guaranteed. Because of the dollars that Seattle was paying Walter Jones, they would have had to guarantee the contract from Year One of the deal.

We can debate that Shaun Alexander was starting to get old, that the injuries would have happened anyway, and that Hutchinson would not be the same player in Seattle with no Adrian Peterson to block for. Those points may all be true. But in 2003 the Seahawks ranked 10th in rushing yards and 7th in rushing touchdowns. In 2004 they ranked 8th and 5th. In 2005 they ranked 3rd and 1st. Hutchinson left after 2005. In 2006 they ranked 14th and 27. In 2007 they ranked 20th and 22nd. That's a huge drop off. To not think that Hutchinson leaving has had anything to do with that drop off would be pretty naive. He is  establishing himself as a Hall of Fame offensive lineman and one of the best guards in NFL history.

The Seahawks were able to survive that drop off in the regular season in 2006 and 2007 by relying more on Matt Hasselbeck and the receivers. It also helped that the entire division was awful.  However, they did not fare well in the playoffs, not making it out of the divisional playoffs. With the emergence of Arizona combined with Hasselbeck and the receivers missing a lot of time this year the results have been disasterous. But the Seahwaks ceased being a serious contender in the NFC the moment Hutchinson moved on to the Vikings. If there was one move they could undue over the last 3 years this would have to be it.

4) Overpaying average players - The players they have thrown big money at in recent years hasn't worked out very well. Julian Peterson was a good signing at 7 years for $54.00 million and $18.00 million guaranteed. He made the Pro Bowl each of his first two years with the team. Patrick Kearney was a good signing last year, making the Pro Bowl with 14.5 sacks. He has 5 sacks this season. But, what were they thinking with all the money the paid Deion Branch and Nate Burleson?

Burleson was signed in retaliation for the Hutchinson signing. He was given 7 years and $49.00 million. The Vikings received a 3rd round pick as compensation. Branch was brought in from New England for a first round pick and given a 6 year $39 million dollar deal. Considering that Burleson had one 1,000 yard season in his career while playing opposite Randy Moss and Branch never had a 1,000 yard season that has been a lot of money for players that really haven't panned out in Seattle.

Burleson has been good on special teams prior to his injury this year and Branch has yet to get over 800 yards or 4 touchdowns. For the money they are paying those two it should be Harrison and Wayne, TJ and CJ, or Fitzgearld and Boldin. They tried to take that team from a power running team to a great passing team. While Hasselbeck has put up good numbers in that system their receivers they paid top dollar for never really panned out.  They would have been better off using those draft picks on talent that might have panned out.  Furthermore, the salary cap space they would have saved would have helped tremendously.

5) Inability to Win on the Road - This is a team that has consistently not been able to win on the road. Even in their 2005 Super Bowl season they were 8-0 at home and 5-3 on the road. In 2006 they were just 4-4 on the road. Last season they finished 3-5 on the road. This year the Seahawks are just 1-4 away from their own building, winning at San Fran in Mike Singletary's debut.

Even though they are also 1-4 at home, they seem to play better there. They were competitive with Arizona, losing 26-20. They played Green Bay close early, before falling 27-17. They lost to San Fran in OT. Their only really bad game at home was a 26-7 loss to Philly.

The road has been a different story. They lost 34-10 at Buffalo. They lost 44-6 to the New York Giants. This team is incapable of consistently playing well on the road, much less winning there. Although the stats say they are the same bad team at home or on the road, I've seen the team play in both spots and to me it isn't even close. This team is dreadful on the road and has been that way the last 3 years.

Most NFL teams do play better at home. The difference between the 10-6 and 11-5 teams and the 7-9 and 8-8 teams is an ability to go to another team's stadium and win a close game. For the most part, Seattle isn't even losing close road games. They are getting lit up.
That pretty much covers where they have been.  If they are going to make a run in 2009 or 2010 their only shot is to keep their defense in tact and hope that Trufant and Tatupa can continue to play at an All-Pro level while the older players keep making solid contributions. They can use their middle and late round picks to add depth and youth for the future.

Offense is where they need an overhaul. You would hope that Hasselbeck's injuries are a one year abiration. At 32 years old he still has a few years left, especially when you see the years Kerry Collins, Brett Favre, and Kurt Warner are having. They could focus their high draft picks and free agency on rebuilding a depleted line, running game, and receiving core. They should be able to get 2-3 starters in 2009 with their high draft picks. If they made the right moves they might be able to piece together a NFC West contender in 2009 and an NFC contender in 2010.  When you have a franchise quarterback in place two years is not unrealistic to rebuild a team into a contender.

If they aren't going to take that approach, they need to scrap everyone but Tatupa and Trufant and start over. Bobby Engram, Matt Hasselbeck, Walter Jones, Patrick Kerney, and Mike Wahle all have over 10 years of NFL experience and all are going to be at least 32 years old. Julian Peterson and Deion Grant both have 9 years of experience. Peterson is 30 years old and Grant will be next year. They could try to go big in free agency to fix their problems and have the same people hurt next year that they had hurt this year. Seattle has had a 5 year run with this group and that is the typical window for title contention.

Sometimes it's hard to accept the fact that what was good enough 3 years ago isn't good enough to even compete in the worst division in football. That is where the Seahawks find themselves today.

Seattle has a lot to be thankful for when it comes to the Mike Holmgren era. Prior to his arival in 1999 the Seahawks had not made the playoffs since 1988 and had not won a playoff game since 1984. Holmgren transformed a team that had 8 consecutive non-winning seasons from 1992-1998 and turned them into a perenial NFC contender. Seattle made the Super Bowl and played a competitive game there against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Seattle became one of the toughest places to play in the NFL. From 2003 to 2007 the Seahawks went 33-7 at home. They hadn't had that level of success since the early 1980s. 

However, as with all good thins they must come to an end. Seattle will be faced with a lot of challenges over the next few seasons. They will have to decide if Jim L Mora is going to be the answer in Seattle. They will have to decide which of their veteran players have a few years left in the tank and which need to be released. They will need to decide what young players will help this team return to prominence the fastest. Mike Holmgren has made that task a lot easier. In the 1990s no one wanted to play in Seattle. Today they have a new stadium, great fans, and a solid following. There is no reason to expect they will go in the tank. However, in a year where a lot of things have begun to change, it is going to be strange watching January football and not seeing the 12th man going nuts in Seattle.