The NFL is the most followed professional sports league in the United States. It has its own network devoting 24 hours of continuous coverage. ESPN, FOX, CBS, and NBC all have analyst breaking down various teams and players on a daily basis. There is sports talk radio and online coverage. Simply put, the NFL is not suffering from a lack of exposure crisis.
However, a lot of stuff that you watch, hear, and read is simply not true. There are a lot of myths that one person misreports, it gets picked up by a couple other people, and is suddenly reported as fact. Here are the 7 myths that I have heard the most often throughout the season that I want to set the record straight on.
The 6 contenders:
7) Adrian Peterson is the best running back in the NFL - Adrian Peterson is having the best season by a running back in the NFL. Adrian Peterson is the NFL Rookie of the Year. He is not the best running back in the NFL. 9 good games will not give him that title. 2,000 yards this season will not either, although that is probably not possible with the knee injury suffered against Green Bay.
Last I checked the best running back in the NFL resides in San Diego. Since 2001 he has never had less than 1236 yards. He has never had less than 10 touchdowns. Both were in his rookie year. He has a career rush per carry average of 4.5. He caught 100 passes in 2003. He has won an MVP. His name is LT. While Adrian Peterson was breaking the single game rushing record, LT passed Jim Brown on the all time list for rushing touchdowns. LT is an all time great. A first ballot Hall of Famer. Adrian Peterson is the lone front-runner for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
In today's fast food paced culture, we like to throw terms like Greatest around after 3 quarters of good football. We are all about the moment. Adrian Peterson is having a great year. Now he has to have 5 more to be in the LT discussion. LT is the best running back in the league, hands down. Until he starts having 700 yard 5 touchdown seasons, it will remain that way.
6) The Denver Broncos have the best pair of corners in the NFL - This isn't true either. I won't go as far as to say Champ Bailey isn't the best corner in the league. One year playing with a bad run defense will not change that. However, the best pair of cornerbacks in the NFL resides in Green Bay, WI. Denver is ranked 11 slots higher in pass defense. They give up only 197.3 yards per game to the Packers 213.3. The main reason for that difference is that teams are too busy gashing the Bronco's NFL worst run defense to pass the ball that many times.
Pass yards gained is not the entire story in evaluating cornerbacks. Teams have not had to challenge the Broncos cornerbacks. Bailey and Bly haven't played as well as years past. James Jones and Greg Jennings were able to beat those corners deep in the same game. 79 and 82 yards deep. While both are fast, neither would be considered track stars. Then Kitna passed for 251 yards and 2 touchdowns and no picks in the Detroit blowout. Big Ben had 4 touchdown passes against Denver this season. There has definitely been something missing from the Denver duo's game this season.
The Packers play a very unique style of football. In an era where Zone Blitzing and Cover 2 is all the rage, the Packers play primarily man-to-man defense. The key thing to look at with the Packers pass defense is that opposing QBs have a rating of 79.8 when facing the Packer defense to the Broncos 93.1. But the most impressive stat is that teams are only completing 57.9 % of their passes on the Packers defense, which is tied with Tennessee for 2nd best in the NFL. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers are better.
The fact is that defenses need the entire unit to succeed. Part of the reason the Packers are doing so well in pass defense is the pressure of the front 4 and the abilities of the linebackers. However, Harris and Woodson are playing with two young safeties that just got younger when Collins went down. When you consider the youth of the safeties and how much solo man to man coverage the Packers play, Al Harris and Charles Woodson are as good of a cornerback duo as any in the NFL, even though people don't talk about it a lot.
It isn't like these two just started playing well 8 games ago. Charles Woodson was great in Oakland, suffered through injuries, poor teams, and underachievement. He has rejuvenated his career in Green Bay. It is a crime that Al Harris has not been voted to a Pro Bowl in his career. These guys deserve a lot more recognition. That can be hard on a team whose headlines are dominated by the play of Brett Favre. While there are plenty of bigger names at the cornerback position, none are playing it as well as the duo in Green and Gold.
5) Vince Young is a winning QB - False. Vince Young plays with a winning defense. Vince Young has passed for 4 touchdowns and 10 picks this season. He has a QB rating of 62.2. To put that in perspective, his completion percentage is 60.9. I cannot think of an instance where a QB had a completion percentage and QB rating that close.
He has one game over 200 yards passing this season, which was the 257 yards in a blowout win by the Jags. Two of his four touchdowns came in the Saints game. Supporters will point to his strong running play making up for the lack of passing. His season high rushing is 57 yards and he has only gotten over 30 yards in 2 of his 8 starts. He has only 2 rushing touchdowns.
Because of the game he had against USC in the Rose Bowl, his rookie campaign with a team picked to win 4 games, and the Madden Cover; he is being hyped as the next big thing. He is a great leader. The Titans players believe they can win any game with him on the field. He has the intangibles that many feel Eli Manning lacks. While Young may end up being a capable starting NLF QB, he is not one right now.
Part of the problem is his weapons. He doesn't have a go to receiver or an All-Pro Running back. To his credit he is at his best when the game matters. However, this guy still has light years to go before he is an elite signal caller. The Titans are 6-3 because of their defense. A defense that is in the top 7 in points allowed, yards allowed, pass yards allowed, and rush yards allowed. Albert Haynesworth is the MVP of this team. How did that run D look without him in their on Sunday?
I do realize that statistics are not the sole measure of a player. However, he has escaped a lot of criticism so far. Rex Grossman was run out of Chicago for basically the same thing. Rex Grossman went 13-3 last season and people were calling for his job all season. If someone can explain to me the difference between Vince Young and Rex Grossman I would love to hear it.
4) Tom Brady is the MVP of the NFL - Don't get me wrong, I understand why people think Brady is the MVP. MVP means different things to different people. In my opinion Tom Brady is the Offensive Player of the Year. I am aware of all the numbers. 2686 yards. 33 touchdowns. 4 interceptions. I also understand that if Brady goes down that Matt Cassel has no chance of leading this team anywhere in the playoffs. However, the Patriots could have a better backup if they chose to devote salary cap space to it. They have chosen not to. The measure of an MVP is how many other starters in the league could you plug into that position and have a reasonable chance of duplicating that result. It is not Who Has the Worst Backup Award.
To me the biggest difference in the 2006 Patriot and 2007 Patriots is not the play of Tom Brady. I've seen him there the last 5 years. While he has been a Pro Bowl QB he has not been this. He didn't suddenly figure out how to put up big numbers this offseason. The difference is Randy Moss. Randy Moss is the new item in the equation that we have never seen in the Patriots scheme. He proved to be a difference maker with the Vikings. How different did the Minnesota offense look in 1997 to 1998? What was the change in the equation in that team? Trust me, it wasn't the addition of Cunningham at QB. Culpepper had 39 touchdowns in 2004. How has that offense or Culpepper looked since Moss left?
Brady gets to throw jump balls, into double coverage, and can pass up on an open Ben Watson in the endzone. Randy Moss makes that happen. Randy Moss is the player that stretches out the defense and opens up everything underneath. You could probably go down to Jay Cutler, Jeff Garcia, or Phillip Rivers and still have a reasonable chance of scoring points and winning games with the current Patriots roster. Not 33 touchdowns and 4 interceptions good. But good enough to be a playoff contender with an offense that can put up points.
If you take Randy Moss of this team the only receiver you could replace him with and get similar results is TO. If he goes down, this offense suddenly lacks the explosiveness it has generated in the first 9 games. My 3 MVPs would be 1) Randy Moss, 2) Brett Favre, and 3) Adrian Peterson. Those are the 3 players that have produced the biggest numbers that would be impossible for any other player to step in and have the same effect on that ball club. How many other QBs could be 8-1 with a 32nd ranked rush offense? How many other Running Backs could have 1,000 yards with that cast of characters on offense? Those are the 3 MVP front-runners in the NFL. Tom Brady is the Offensive Player of the Year, not the MVP.
3) The AFC is the Powerhouse Conference and the NFC is the Ugly Stepchild - This is getting old too. This was the case the last 2-3 years ago. Two 8-8 wildcards in 2004 were the beginning of this trend. Another 8-8 wildcard last season that ended the season 2-6 also contributed to this reality. The NFC was a mediocre conference in 2004-2006. There were years where the two best teams that missed the playoffs in the AFC could have beaten the #3 through #6 seeds in the NFC.
The fact is that the NFC has closed the gap overall. The New England Patriots are head and shoulders above the NFC. They are also head and shoulders above the AFC.
Dallas and Green Bay are very talented and could probably give New England a run for their money. At least as good of a run as Pittsburgh. Indy is confusing because they have so many players going down. With the rosters as is Dallas and Green Bay would both give New England a better game this week. Tennessee and Jacksonville are 6-3 in the AFC. That isn't necessarily a compliment for the conference. The AFC West is littered with 4-5 and 5-4 teams. The AFC East other than New England is disgraceful. That includes 5-4 Buffalo and their 13-10 win over the powerhouse Miami Dolphins. Three games against the Jets and Bills have inflated their record.
In 2005 the AFC was 34-26 against the NFC. The 6 AFC playoff teams went 20-4 against the NFC as opposed to the NFC playoff teams going 12-12 against the AFC. In 2006 the AFC was 40-24 against the NFC.
The NFC and AFC are 20-20 against one another this season. Part of that is because the NFC North and NFC East are playing the AFC East and AFC West. Still Arizona beat Pittsburgh. New Orleans destroyed Jacksonville. The 6 teams that would represent the AFC in the playoffs this season if the playoffs began next week have gone 13-5 against the NFC. The six NFC teams have gone 11-5 against the AFC.
While New England will be favored against any NFC team they face, they will against any AFC team as well. The fact is that the NFC as a whole has made a lot of strides this season to make this a two-conference league again. A lot of these claims of AFC supremacy are founded in stereotypes created by New England and Indy's dominant starts and the last few seasons of inter conference competition. It is not founded in what has been going on in inter conference play in 2007.
2) Eli Manning is having a breakout season - Who has more passing yards, Joey Harrington or Eli Manning? Who has a higher completion percentage? More completions? Higher QB rating? Yards per attempt? If you answered yes to Joey Harrington on each statistic you are correct.
Now who has the 15th ranked scoring and 15th ranked yardage defense and who has the 12th ranked scoring defense and the 7th ranked yardage defense? Who has the 20th ranked rush offense as opposed to the 6th ranked rush offense? Who has Plaxico Burress, Jeremy Shockey, and Brandon Jacobs? Who has Roddy White, Michael Jenkins, and an aging Warrick Dunn?
My point is that the media is portraying 2007 as Eli Manning's breakout season. The validation we have been waiting for that he is an elite QB. I would rather have 15-20 QBs in the NFL over him. Just because he shares the same last name as Archie and Peyton does not make him a good QB. I have never been witness to a more over hyped team or an over hyped player.
The three best games on the Giants schedule have seen them lose by a combined score of 111-68 or by an average of 14.3 points per game. All three contests were lost by double digits. Two of those games were in New York. Their 6 game winning streak came by a combined score of 152-79 or by 12.17 points per game. The problem is those 6 games came against Washington, Philadelphia, New York Jets, Atlanta Falcons, San Fran 49ers, and Miami Dolphins. Teams with a combined winning percentage of 15-40 or a winning percentage of .230. When you consider that the Jets only victory is over the Dolphins and the Falcons have a victory over the 49ers it is really bad. There has never been a team this hyped over beating teams of such little consequence in recent memory.
As for Eli Manning. In the opener against the Giants he had 312 yards and 4 touchdowns against one pick. Since then he has one 300-yard game against Atlanta. He has no games with more than 2 touchdown passes. His highest rating is 87.9 against Atlanta. He has 4 out of 8 games where he hasn't gotten to 200 yards. He has 10 passing touchdowns and 1 rushing touchdown compared to10 picks to go along with 3 lost fumbles. His season QB rating is 78.6, which includes the first Cowboys game.
What am I missing here? I would love to have any NFL expert or New York Giants fan explain to me why this is being labeled as Eli Manning's break out season. Explain to me why he can't play better with a top 10 run game and two Pro Bowl caliber targets. Why were the Giants being labeled as arguably the second best team in the NFC heading into that game? Why were the Giants picked by anyone to beat the Cowboys?
While the Giants will probably win 10 games and make the playoffs, this team doesn't have a shot of beating either Dallas or Green Bay unless those teams beat themselves. They might not even win their first round game. They don't have a chance of going anywhere in the near future with Eli Manning playing the way he has this season. With him now in his 4th year of playing, it is doubtful if he will ever play better.
But the Winner is: 1) Brett Favre is playing his best football in a decade:
Year W-L Comp Att Pct Yds YPA Td Int Rate
2001 12-4 314 510 61.6 3,921 7.7 32 15 94.1
2002 12-4 341 551 61.9 3,658 6.6 27 16 85.6
2003 10-6 308 471 65.4 3,361 7.1 32 21 90.4
2004 10-6 346 540 64.1 4,088 7.6 30 17 92.4
2007 8-1 238 354 67.2 2,757 7.8 16 8 96.2
Unless I'm missing something, 3 years is not a decade. His rating this season is comparable to 2001-2004. The Completion percentage and yards are higher. TDs, interception, and QB rating are about the same. The win & loss percentage is going to probably be higher than 03-04, but in the ballpark with 01-02. This is mainly because the Packers have a good defense in 07 like they did in 01-02 and didn't in 03 and especially 04.
This is the myth that has been created by the poor 2005-2006 seasons. The myth that Brett Favre was an All-Pro QB back in 1995-1997 and that he hasn't really done a lot since then. That he has been riding his Super Bowl glory for the better part of a decade. The Packers went 44-20 from 2001 to 2004. They won 3 division titles. In 2001 they finished a game back of the 13-3 Chicago Bears. Favre finished 2nd in the MVP race to Kurt Warner in 2001 and 2nd to Rich Gannon in 2002. He had three 30-touchdown seasons. He had 3 seasons with a rating over 90.0. 2002 was a respectable 85.6.
The difference between 1994-1997 and 2001-2004 wasn't as much Favre's play as the team's playoff success. The Packers played in 3 Championship games from 1994 to 1998, 2 Super Bowls, winning one in 1996. From 2001 to 2004 the Packers were 2-4 in the playoffs and played in 0 Conference Championships. Part of that were the 10 interceptions Favre threw against the Rams and Vikings. Part of that was giving up a 4th and 26 to the Eagles. Part of that was a rash of injuries to close the 2002 season that left the team a mash unit against a young and up upcoming team in the Atlanta Falcons. That was when Michael Vick and the Falcons mattered.
Favre made too many bad throws in 2005 and 2006. He didn't play as well as he should have. Part of that was caused by Favre trying to win games by himself. Part of that were injuries in 2005. Part of that was playing with the youngest team in the league in 2006. Just as Favre did not deserve all the blame in 2005 & 2006, he doesn't deserve all the credit in 2007. The Packers have a championship level defense. Driver, Jennings, and Jones form one of the best receiving trios in the NFL. Donald Lee is playing amazing at tight end.
However, Favre was not in a witness protection program from 1998 to 2006 and suddenly materialized from a 10-year funk in 2007. He played MVP caliber football from 2001-2004. The numbers of 2005-2006 are making some people forget that. Whether this season ends with the playoffs results of 1995-1997 or the results of 2001-2004 still remains to be seen. However it is a disservice to an amazing career to act like he played bad football from 1999 to 2006. The statistics don't support that ridiculous position. The people that keep saying that should know better.
What is your favorite myth of the 2007? These were the most obvious myths that I could think of, although with 32 teams there are too many to count. Do you agree with my assessment of the situation? Think that I am dead wrong? Think I missed one all together? Let me know your thoughts.
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