As I stated in my last post, I am going to post one division each week.  I'll list what I feel are each team's strengths and weaknesses.  I'll then try to predict the record and placing in the division.  After I have done all the divisions, I will make my playoff and Super Bowl predictions.  My first division was the NFC East.   This week I'll be looking at the NFC South.

 New Orleans Saints

Strengths:  This team returns an offense that was as explosive as any offense in the NFL last season.  Entering the 2006 season, the New Orleans Saints were in a state of flux.  Hurricane Katrina had devastated the region, turning the Saints into a weekly road team.  They finished with the season having earned the second pick in the draft.   Despite a new coaching staff and young players, the Saints had one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL last season.  Consider the following facts.  1) Sean Payton was a rookie NFL head coach. 2) Drew Brees was in the first year of the offense coming off major shoulder surgery, 3) Duece McAllister was coming off season ending knee surgery, 4) Marcees Colston and Reggie Bush played major roles in the offense, despite being rookies, and 5) Their best wide out, Joe Horn was injured for 6 games last season, and basically was a non factor all season.  The result was the fifth most points scored in the NFL.  With the veteran players spending another year in the system, the younger players gaining valuable experience, and the top 4 draft picks being spent on offense, the sky is the limit for this offense.   

Weaknesses:  The main weakness last season was the rush defense, which finished 23rd in the league.  Because the Saints had the 3rd ranked passing defense, they were able to finish a respectable 13th in scoring defense.   When the Saints were able to stop people, they won.  In their 6 losses the Saints gave up an average of 28.7 points per game.   This was opposed to the 15 points per game they gave up in their victories.  It's no accident that the Bears, Bengals, Panthers, Ravens, Redskins, and Steelers were able to beat the Saints last season.   All had thousand yard rushers with the exception of the Panthers.  All except the Bengals win with conservative running games.   Jason David was a nice addition to the secondary.  However, the Saints have done very little to sure up their shaky run defense.      

Prediction:   I think this division is relatively easy to pick.   Despite, New Orleans weakness at stopping the run, its hard to run on a team that can put points up this quickly.  It's a very similar problem that teams have facing the Colts.  Ideally you would like to run 40 times a game, but it is so hard to do when the offense scores as quickly as they do.  This offense should be even better than it was last season.  McAllister will be another year removed from knee surgery, Bush and Colsten a year older, and Brees has one year in the system.  The Saints defense does not need to be super.  It just needs to be able force turnovers and not get run over.  The schedule is tough.  They have road games at Indy and at Chicago.  They play the Seahawks and improved 49ers.   However, I like the direction the Saints are headed.  I think the Panthers are the only team in the division that has a realistic chance of challenging the Saints.  In the end, I look for the Saints to comfortably win this division.  

Record:  12-4, NFC South Division Title, NFC #1 seed     

Carolina Panthers

Strengths:   The strength of the Panthers has always been their defense.   Julius Peppers is on the short list of people considered the best defender in football.   Last season produced a team that was ranked 9th in scoring defense, 7th in total yards, and 4th in pass yards.  I think their 11th ranked rush defense was the result of an offense that rarely produced big enough leads to prevent teams from being able to run the football.  Steve Smith is one of the best receivers in all of football.  DeShaun Foster and DeAngelo Williams give the Panthers some weapons at running back.  Coach Fox has proven to be an excellent NFL coach.  

Weaknesses:  The Panthers and Saints are polar opposites.  While the Panthers have a shut down defense, their offense is too often shut down.   Part of the problem was that Steve Smith was injured to start the season.  The Panthers got off to a slow start, and never seemed to be able to develop any flow on offense.  However, one receiver should not dictate the success of an offense to this degree.  If a receiver has 10 catches, he has had an unbelievable game.  What do you do the other 60 times you are on offense?  Jake Delhomme has to play better this year.  Keyshawn Johnson was brought in to take pressure off Steve Smith and allow Jake Delhomme to find other options.   While Johnson was able to grab 70 passes, the offense did not improve.  The Panthers are obviously not sold that Delhomme is the answer, evidenced by the signing of David Carr.  It will be interesting how the team responds if Delhomme gets off to a slow start and creates a quarterback controversy.  The Panthers need to find ways to score when Steve Smith is not involved in the game.   With the waiving and subsequent retirement of Keyshawn Johnson, the Panthers are going to have to make due with Kerry Colbert, Drew Carter, and rookie Dwayne Jarrett.  While Steve Smith is an exceptional receiver, besides him, I do not see where this team has enough playmakers to consistently score on offense.  As in the past, the Panthers will need to rely on their defense if they are going to win games this year. 

Prediction:  The old saying is that defense wins championships.  So long as Peppers, Jenkins, and the other Panthers stay healthy and make plays, Carolina should put itself in position to make the playoffs as a wildcard.   The Panthers had better get off to a good start of the season.  Beginning with Week 11, the Panthers play the Packers, Saints, 49ers, Jaguars, Seahawks, and Cowboys, before closing out the season at Tampa.  That is 3 playoff teams, and 2 teams that were in contention for the playoffs until the final game of the season, and the busiest free agent team in the NFL this offseason.  The Panthers cannot go into that stretch with a 5-4 record and expect to be able to turn their season around.   I believe the Panthers will be very similar to last season.  They will be good enough to sweep the Saints, but inconsistent enough to lose at Washington and Minnesota.  I look for the Panthers to finish next season 9-7, but miss the playoffs. 

Record: 9-7, 2nd NFC South, No Playoffs. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Strengths:  Again, when you have the fourth pick in the draft, strengths can be hard to find.  Jon Gruden has proven to be one of the top coaches in the game.  While the 4-12 campaign was frustrating last season, there is hope that with a solid head coach, this can be turned around.  Gruden is probably coaching for his job.  If he has a losing season, it will mark the third time in four seasons.  Even with a 2002 Super Bowl title, it would be hard to keep his job.  This team is very similar to the Panthers, in that the strength of the team has traditionally been the defense.    Derrick Brooks and Ronde Barber are perennial Pro Bowlers.  However, the Bucs defense has gotten older the last few years and slipped to 21st in scoring defense last season.  Part of the problem was that the Bucs only scored 211 points on offense, which was 31st in the NFL.  It is hard for a defense to put up good numbers when Mike Alstott leads the team with 3 rushing touchdowns.   Keep in mind thought that the Raiders had the 32nd ranked yardage offense and the 3rd ranked yardage defense.  The Bucs defense does not escape blame for last season.  The Bucs clearly committed themselves to improving their aging defense by spending 6 of their first 7 players in the draft on the defensive side of the ball.  Selecting Gaines Adams, considered the best defensive prospect in the draft, was their key move of the offseason.   

Weaknesses:  The main problem with this team was the offense.  The strength of the offense was its 26th ranked passing attack.  Sad, but when you consider they were 28th in rushing offense, 29th in total yards, and 31st in total points, the passing attack flourished.  I think the Bucs front office figured that while the offense was disappointing last season, the main problem was that Chris Simms was knocked out early in the season.  Galloway has been a 1,000 yard receiver the last two seasons, Cadillac Williams gained 1,000 yards on the ground two seasons ago, and Michael Clayton gained 1,000 yards receiving his rookie year, before bombing out the last two seasons.  With Jeff Garcia signed this offseason, the hope has to be that with a legitimate threat at quarterback, the pieces in place will return to their previous form.  Jon Gruden has had success with older quarterbacks, such as Brad Johnson and Rich Gannon.  If the Bucs can avoid the injuries that plagued them the last few seasons, their offense should improve from the pitiful numbers it produced last season.  

Prediction:  This team is hard to figure out.  The 2005 team went 11-5 and hosted a first round playoff game.  That team was not an offensive juggernaut either, finishing 20th in points scored.  The problem that I am seeing is that the 11-5 team had the number one defense in terms of yardage allowed.  They had the eighth best scoring defense that year.  It is clear the Bucs are trying to rebuild this defense; evidenced by the draft they had this year.  While the Bucs defense should be improved over last season, I don't think it is back to the level it was at in the Super Bowl years.  It really isn't fair to use the 2006 season as a barometer for this year either.  The Bucs got off to a 0-4 start, Chris Simms got hurt, and the rest was history.  Jeff Garcia is going to improve this offense.  The schedule is a mix of hard an easy.  The Bucs have games against the Lions, Texans, and Redskins.  The key to their season will be the first six weeks.  It's brutal.  At Seahawks, Saints, Rams, at Panthers, at Colts, Titians.  Those teams were 55-41 last season.  Three were divisional winners last season.  I think the Bucs will be better than the 2006 team, but not as good as the 2005 team.  7-9 would be a 3 game improvement, and with another good offseason, the Bucs should be poised to return to the post season next year.   

Record:  7-9, 3rd Place NFC South, No Playoffs

Atlanta Falcons

Strengths:  The strength of this has been the running game.  While Michael Vick is up and down, he is exciting to watch no matter how he is playing.  Michael Vick and Warrick Dunn both rushed for over 1,000 yards last season.  Alge Crumpler is among the top tight ends in the league last season.    The rush defense was the 9th best in the NFL.  The defense was a respectful 15th in the league.   The Falcons had a very solid draft.  Blalock and Anderson look to be starters next season.  Houston will probably be the nickel back. 

Weaknesses:  I see a lot of weaknesses on this team.  The most glaring one is the lack of a good wide receiver.  While Crumpler has been a good target, the receivers have been woeful.  The Falcons are projected to start Michael Jenkins and Joe Horn.  Joe Horn was hurt for most of the season.  However, after having four 1000 yard seasons and averaging 9 touchdowns per season, he has been injured the last two seasons and has dropped to 1333 yards and 5 touchdowns for the last two seasons combined.  This is an older player that appears to be in decline.  While he is still a good player, he needs to stay healthy.  The second weakness is Michael Vick.  This offseason has been an embarrassment.  I can't think of a starting quarterback that has entered a season with this many off the field issues.  The off field problems aside, he has a career 53.8 completion percentage, and has only gone over 2500 yards one season in his career.  While his running makes for an exciting time, he needs to be able to deliver the ball with a higher level of consistency.  He has had games where he has shown to be capable of that.  Now he has to put that together.  The third problem is the pass defense, which ranked 29th in the league last season.  While Houston should upgrade that area, the Falcons must stop the pass better this year if they hope to compete.  The fourth problem is the new coach, Bobby Petrino.  While he is a good coach, he was a good coach at Louisville.  I can think of a lot of college coaches that have flamed out after hitting the professional level.  Steve Spurrier, Dennis Erickson, Rich Brooks, and Butch Davis all come to mind.  While supporters of college coaches will point to Jimmy Johnson, there have been far more that have bombed in recent years then have succeeded.  Maybe if the Vikings are willing to trade their entire draft for Michael Vick, he has a shot.  Bobby Petrino is going to have to prove that his creative pass offense will translate to pro success.  While Arthur Blank tried to make a splash by hiring a big name, many of the top head coaches got their starts as professional coordinators, not college head coaches.  Only time will tell if this was a good hire. 

Prediction:  I'm not very sold on this team.  While Joe Horn is an upgrade over their receivers last season, I am not sure whether he will stay healthy enough to make a difference.  Everything besides him is very suspect.  Michael Vick's offseason cannot be good for this team.  It is hard to prepare for a season, when you don't know if the star quarterback and face of the franchise is going to be suspended or in jail.  The reports I have been reading say there is enough evidence to warrant and indictment, but probably not enough for a conviction.  That's not a good sign, seeing the story broke just a month ago, and the season doesn't start for over three months.  If the investigation makes as much progress in the next three months, as it has since it broke, Michael Vick might not be the quarterback to start the season.  Even if it takes longer for the case to develop, the NFL schedule is tough enough, without having to worry about these off the field problems.  Hopefully his cool new hairstyle will make the difference and convince authorities to set him free.  The Falcons traded their promising backup, Matt Shaub.  While they signed Joey Harrington, he has not proven to be a winning option.  The defense should be better with players they added in the draft, I'm just not convinced this team is heading in the right direction.  The Falcons were 7-9 last year.  The division has been competitive for all four teams the last five years.  During that span, this is the only division in football where every team has played in the championship game.  Tampa has won a Super Bowl, and Carolina lost a nail biter.  In a weaker division, the Falcons may be able to survive these offseason distractions.  I look for them to fall back even further in this traditionally competitive division. 

Record: 5-11, Last Place NFC South, No Playoffs 

I hope you enjoyed reading the predictions.  I will try to post the NFC North sometime next week.