About Me:
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan, whose favorite player is still Brett Favre. I am the Senior NFL Writer for www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. Check out our site for the best fantasy football advice.
About Me:
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan, whose favorite player is still Brett Favre. I am the Senior NFL Writer for www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. Check out our site for the best fantasy football advice.
About Me:
I live in Chicago, but am originally from Wisconsin. I I am a disgruntled Green Bay Packer fan, whose favorite player is still Brett Favre. I am the Senior NFL Writer for www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com. Check out our site for the best fantasy football advice.
Here are my thoughts on the fifth week of the NFL. Please remember there are 32 teams in the NFL, there is no way I could mention every big play made by every player in every game. If you want to talk about your favorite team or player, just leave a comment about it and I while address it.
MVP of the Week: Dallas Cowboys QB Tony Romo was at a crossroads in this NFL season. The Cowboys were just 2-2 and he hadn't thrown a touchdown in two games. Furthermore, his team was losing to the 0-4 Kansas City Chiefs, one of the worst teams in the NFL. Romo stepped up in that game and finished 20 for 34 with 351 yards, two touchdowns, zero picks, and a QB rating of 113.7 in Dallas's 26-20 OT win. Dallas's star receiver earns player of the week honors as well, but it wasn't the injured Roy Williams. Instead WR Miles Austin recorded 10 catches for 250 yards and two touchdowns, including the game winning touchdown in OT. Finally, give major credit to Cincinnati Bengals RB Cedric Benson, who became the first running back since 2007 to rush for 100 yards on the Baltimore Ravens, as he recorded 27 carries for 120 yards and one touchdown in the Bengals 17-14 upset of the Ravens. It looks as if the former top five pick of the Chicago Bears has finally found a home in the NFL.
Loser of the Week: The City of Buffalo and its fans that paid hard earned United States currency to watch the 6-3 thriller with the Cleveland Browns. They should be given a refund; they expected to watch NFL football, but were instead defrauded by people impersonating NFL players and coaches. I'll have more on that game and the participants later. San Francisco 49ers CB Dre Bly deserves a mention for celebrating an interception when his team was down 35-10, only to have WR Roddy White strip the ball and recover it, allowing the Atlanta Falcons to score again. Not sure what there was to celebrate at that time, I know there was no celebrating after the 45-10 defeat. Finally, the Jacksonville Jaguars for going to Seattle and not only losing, but losing 41-0 to the Seahawks. They allowed four touchdown passes to QB Matt Hasselbeck, who had played because of a broken rib since Week Two.
Game of the Week: My pick would go to the Monday Night Game, a game in which the Miami Dolphins won 31-27. The score was 13-10 heading into the fourth quarter, but the teams combined to score 35 points in the fourth quarter. The Jets took a 27-24 lead on the Dolphins with about 5:00 minutes left on a Thomas Jones run, but the Dolphins scored the last points on a Ronnie Brown touchdown run with just six second left in the game.
The Bay of Pigs: This is the easiest pick I have ever had to make. The Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills played to a 6-3 final, with the Browns "winning." Making matters worse, Derek Anderson, the "winning" QB went (Get ready for this) 2 for 17 for 23 yards, zero touchdowns, one pick and a QB rating of 15.07. To put that in perspective, Miami Dolphins RB Ronnie Brown was one for two with 21 yards in the Monday Night Game. A running back almost out passed a NFL quarterback on just two pass plays.
I don't know what is more embarrassing, 1) That an alleged NFL team had a starting QB finish with two completions and 23 yards or 2) That an alleged NFL team lost to a quarterback that had two completions for 23 yards. In my mind these two guys, Browns Head Coach Eric Mangini and Bills Head Coach Dick Jaruon are easily two of the worst coaches in the NFL, which is quite a statement seeing Jim Zorn still has a job in Washington and Tom Cable still has a job in Oakland, something I will address later.
The Browns are 31st in yards gained and 30th in points per game. In three of their five contests they have been held under seven points. Mangini spent an entire off-season evaluating Brady Quinn and Anderson to see which quarterback gave his team the best chance to win. He decided on Quinn, only to go to Anderson three games later. Now what do you do? Do you bench the quarterback that led your team to its first victory or do you bench that same quarterback that completed two passes for 23 yards? Mangini has decided to remain with Anderson for now. What does Quinn have to do to lose his job once he gets it back, throw for 15 yards?
The Browns are short on talent and that was the case before Mangini got there, but Mangini has made so many mistakes and so alienated his team with the mandatory rookie bus trip this summer and the $1500.00 fine for an unpaid bottle of water at the hotel that there is little reason to believe that he will ever turn this around. This quarterback situation and the 23 passing yards are just the latest example of his shortcomings as a NFL head coach.
As for the Bills, this is the worst of the worst. We talked about losing to Anderson and that effort, but at least Cleveland fans didn't have to watch it in person. This happened in front of the Bills fans. If I were a Bills fan they could play the rest of the season in Toronto; to pay hard earned money to watch a team lose to that kind of team with that kind of performance is unacceptable.
The Bills don't have the most talent in the league, but QB Trent Edwards, RB Marshawn Lynch, RB Fred Jackson, WR Terrell Owens and WR Lee Evans have talent and they should be scoring more than three points against the Browns. This team should not be ranked 26th in points scored and 25th in yards gained. Owens has probably lost a step, but to be averaging 2.4 catches for 40.4 yards per game is also unacceptable, why did they bring him in if they aren't going to throw him the ball. It isn't like anyone else is doing better. They used to joke that Michael Jordan couldn't average 20.00 points per game for Dean Smith's Carolina Tar Heal squad; well future Hall of Fame WR Jerry Rice couldn't have had 500 yards receiving in Dick Jauron's offense in the prime of his career. If you have any fantasy players playing in these offenses rid yourselves of them by any means necessary; they will bring you too much heartache the rest of the season.
The Mike Martz Award: Sorry I'm being so negative, I promise my impressions will be positive, but I have one more bad coach to blast. At least Mangini and Juaron haven't gone Mike Tyson on anyone this year, allegedly. If I'm a Raider fan (assuming there are any left) I would want to punch head coach Tom Cable for the play calling in the 44-7 loss to the New York Giants. His Raiders attempted 13 pass attempts that game, which is amazing seeing they were down 31-7 at the half. It tied two other franchises for the fewest attempts by a losing team and was a record for teams in the Live Ball Era, which began in 1978.
Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell is not a young quarterback anymore. Russell has started 21 games in his NFL career. Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers have started 20 games. Rookie Mark Sanchez has started five games and his fellow rookie Matthew Stafford has started four games. Does anyone believe for a moment that in a 44-7 loss where those guys played the entire game they would have just 13 pass attempts? Russell is not a seventh round pick that they are slowly trying to develop. He was the first pick in the draft and is being paid a $68.5 million dollar contract with $31.5 million dollars guaranteed. He was expected to turn this team around, especially by his third year in the NFL. If the best he can do is 13 passes the Raiders need to admit that was the worst money they ever spent and rid themselves of Russell and start over, again. They could go with veteran QB Jeff Garcia... oh wait; they can't because they cut him just before the season. Why would you want an experienced backup to come in and try to spark a rally when you can just pass 13 times and concede defeat? If they wanted to go in a different direction their choice would be Bruce Gradkowski, who has also proven over the years that he is not a good starter. As bad as Russell has been, he is there best option, which is a very situation for Raiders fans and the organization.
Furthermore, they didn't even run the ball well. Despite trailing 31-7 at the half and the Giants wanting the Raiders to run the ball to consume clock, the Raiders gained 60 yards on 25 rushes for an average of 2.4 yards per rush. Only the Raiders can find a way to fail like this and it starts will owner Al Davis. Davis is a legend in the game and one of the most important figures in the history of the NFL. His team is a circus right now and all signs point to it continuing that way if he stays in charge. They have changed head coaches, players, and coordinators; Davis has been the one constant in this awful equation. I don't know if Cable is a good coach or a bad coach because of the situation he is currently in, but based on his play calling Sunday, I'm going with a very bad head coach. If it is true that he punched his assistant Randy Hanson, Commissioner Godell should go after him the same way he went after PacMan Jones, Michael Vick and every other problem child that has been suspended by the NFL. There is no excuse for that type of conduct.
That's a topic for another day. What everyone should be able to agree on is that was the worst piece of play calling by a team that was behind; I have never seen a coaching staff quit on a game like I saw the Raiders do on Sunday. The Raiders are too proud of a franchise to have reached this level and it is my hope that the Raiders will become competitive again. The NFL is a better league when the Radiers are at least relevant.
Injury Report: Good news for the New England Patriots, LT Matt Light does not appear to have ligament damage in his ankle or knee, but it is still uncertain when he will return. It is important for the Patriots to have him protecting QB Tom Brady's blindside. Pittsburgh Steelers DE Aaron Smith has a shoulder injury that could keep him sidelined, which is critical, because he is veteran player that stops the run well and can put pressure on the quarterback. Finally, the Buffalo Bills lost two linebacker s Kawika Mitchell and Marcus Buggs for the season, which further hurts a linebacker core that has been devastated by injuries.
Overall Impressions of Week Four:
1) I was wrong about the Denver Broncos - On to more positive commentary. I did a very good job of picking the last place teams, nailing six of the eight teams that currently reside in last place (Washington Redskins, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit Lions, St. Louis Rams, Buffalo Bills and Cleveland Browns). Like most people I didn't see the Tennessee Titans sitting at 0-5 right now, instead pegging the Jacksonville Jaguars for last place. My evaluation of the Broncos was the worst of all my picks; I had them pegged for a 3-13 to 5-11 team that could potentially finish behind Oakland. Instead, Denver currently stands at 5-0 and in sole possession of first place in the AFC. There is no way they will finish behind Oakland or Kansas City right now, but rather they will be looking to battle the San Diego Chargers for the AFC West.
The biggest change in Denver has been their defense. The Broncos are second in yards allowed, fifth in passing yards allowed, sixth in passing yards allowed and most importantly first in points allowed. The Broncos were 29th in yards allowed, 26th in passing yards allowed, 27th in rushing yards allowed and 30th in points allowed in 2008.
It's possible to turn around a defense that quickly, one that I remember vividly is the 2000 to 2001 improvement of the St. Louis Rams defense, which went from 23rd in total yards, 27th in passing yards, 13th in rushing yards, and 31st in points allowed to third in yards allowed, 11th in passing yards, third in rushing yards, and seventh in points allowed. I'm sure there are others, with the draft and free agency it is possible to produce a lot of turnover to an underachieving unit. If the right decisions are made, change can happen very quickly.
The difference between the Rams and the Broncos is that the Rams had a high powered offense to hang their hat on. 1999-2001 was the Greatest Show on Turf's peak days; they just had to fix the defense. The Denver Broncos also had a high powered offense, but rookie Head Coach Josh McDaniels was not able to keep that intact. Everyone knows what happened between QB Jay Cutler and McDaniels; that disagreement sent the disgruntled QB to Chicago. Later WR Brandon Marshall was suspended for the preseason for conduct detrimental to the team.
I'm not surprised the Broncos were able to turnaround their defense in as much as I am surprised that they were able to do that with all the perceived negative things that happened on offense. The Broncos had an offense that was second in yards and 16th in points, but with QB Kyle Orton replacing Cutler and Marshall unhappy no one expected them to amount to much on offense. This was an 8-8 team that looked to be headed in the wrong direction, led by a coach that appeared he was going to be in the NFL for just one year.
Instead, their defense has been the most dominating defense in the NFL. They are giving up only 8.6 points per game, Indianapolis and the New York Giants are tied for second with 14.2. The Dallas Cowboys have averaged 28.2 points per game and have a 3-1 record in their four games against opponents not from Denver. They scored 10 points in their 17-10 loss in Denver. The Cincinnati Bengals have averaged 23.5 points per game and have a 4-0 record in their four games against opponents not from Denver. They scored 7 points in their 12-7 home loss to Denver. The New England Patriots have averaged 21.5 points per game and have a 3-1 record in their four games against opponents not from Denver. They were held to 17 points in an overtime game. These are three pretty good offenses that Denver was able to frustrate. It is impossible to say that Denver has a good defense, because of the opposition they have played. They have taken three offenses that have been effective against other teams and shut them down. Denver's defense has been fixed and it is for real.
The concern for Denver is can they keep winning with an offense that ranks 21st in points scored at 19.8 points per game. They probably can, because their offense is gaining a lot of yards, their 376.8 yards per game gained ranks sixth in the NFL, thanks to a rushing attack that is gaining a 139.0 yards per game, good for 5th in the NFL. If a team can run the ball, control the clock and play great defense they are going to win a lot of games in the NFL.
You could have argued Denver was just lucky when they only a 12-7 win in their opener against a Cincinnati squad that people also underestimated. It is impossible to be lucky five games in a row in the NFL. At 5-0 this is going to be a formidable team the rest of the way with a defense that nobody is going to want to face. Time will tell if that will translate into a deep playoff run, but there are definitely a lot of good things going on in Denver, something I never expected that I would say when the season began.
2) Is Peyton Manning playing the best football of his career - I keep hearing from people that Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning is playing the best football of his career. One of those people is Jeff Fisher, the head coach of the Tennessee Titans, who said, ""He's just playing as well now as I think he's ever played in his career."
That's a pretty amazing statement, seeing Manning had one of the best seasons in NFL history in 2004, when he threw a then record 49 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. I am one that likes to check the statistics when people make these types of claims. Here is how his 2004 season finished compared to how his 2009 season is on pace to finish:
2004: 336 completions, 497 attempts, 9.2 yards per attempt, 67.6 completion percentage, 4,557 passing yards, 49 touchdown passes, 10 interceptions, and a QB rating around 121.1.
2009: 426 completions, 580 attempts, 9.1 yards per attempt, 73.5 completion percentage, 5,264 passing yards, 38 touchdown passes, 13 interceptions, and a QB rating around 114.0.
Both Colts teams were very good. The 2004 Colts finished 12-4 and won the AFC South. They beat the Denver Broncos in the Wild Card Round before losing to the New England Patriots in the Divisional Round. This team is 5-0, has a three game lead in the AFC South and appears poised to compete for not only an AFC Championship, but the Super Bowl.
What is different about his 2004 season and this season is that the Colts are unable to run the ball in 2009. The Colts are 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game at just 78.8 yards per contest. In 2004 they were 15th in the NFL at 115.8 yards per game. That is the main reason that Manning's attempts are much higher, which is the reason he is on pace to throw over 5,000 yards.
However, that makes his job a lot harder, because defenses don't have to game plan against the running game like they did in 2004. He is still maintaining a yards per attempt average over 9.1, is completing a higher percentage of his passes and not turning the ball over at a substantially higher rate, which is very impressive.
The other impressive feat is that he doesn't have the talent in the receiving core that he had in 2004. Reggie Wayne is on pace for 1,468 receiving yards. The next best wide receiver on the roster is on pace for 729 yards, which is Austin Collie. Compare that to 2004 when Wayne, Marvin Harrison and Brandon Stokley all went over the 1,000 yard mark and all had more than ten touchdown catches. A big weapon for Manning has been TE Dallas Clark, who is on pace for 112 receptions, 1,411 yards and six touchdowns, which would be an all-time great season for a tight end. Still, most explosive offenses need lots of good wide receivers to move the ball down the field in big chunks, it is not a small feat to utilize the tight end as much as Manning has and still maintain a yards per attempt number over 9.0.
Back to the original question; is Manning playing the best football of his career. If he keeps at this current pace he would have the most completions in a single season, his highest completion percentage of his career and most passing yards for his career. He would also have the second highest attempts, passing yards, touchdowns, and QB rating. A 114.0 QB rating would be the third highest single season QB rating in the history of the NFL.
Sometimes sports fans like to get caught in the moment and proclaim that this is the best they have ever seen. I will still go with 2004; because that season is in the books, this season has 11 games to go. That said, this is by far the best football he has played since that season, which is scary, because he has made two All-Pro First Teams (2005, 2008) and one All-Pro second team (2006) since that 2004 season. He also won the NFL MVP award in 2008. Peyton Manning deserves the praise that this is the best he has ever played. He continues to show why he is one of the best quarterbacks the NFL has ever seen. If he continues at this pace it is very likely that he will be receiving a record fourth MVP trophy.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred's 2009 Regular Season Record: 50-26
This year I will not be including my picks in my newsletter, instead I will release them on Thursday as a separate article. Check back on Thursday as I release my picks for the upcoming games, with analysis of the big factors that will determine the winners.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred's 2009 Regular Season Record: 50-26
This year I will not be including my picks in my newsletter, instead I will release them on Thursday as a separate article. Check back on Thursday as I release my picks for the upcoming games, with analysis of the big factors that will determine the winners.
Check out www.fantasyfootballmaniaxs.com for other articles about the NFL and fantasy football. Find out why we receive thousands of hits from people each week looking for advice on how to win in their fantasy leagues.
With four weeks in the books teams are no longer able to use the excuse that they need time to develop chemistry and get into the flow of the season. Several teams are fighting to save their seasons, most notably the Tennessee Titans and Carolina Panthers, two teams that have failed to win a game this year after going a combined 25-7 in 2008.
Here are the top five games I have identified for Week Five, with the rest of the games picked after that. My record for the season is 42-20.
1) Cincinnati Bengals (3-1) at Baltimore Ravens (3-1) - Most people would have thought the Ravens and Steelers would be in control of first place in this division, but instead it is the Bengals that march into Baltimore for a first place showdown. That share for the lead ends this Sunday and I am going with the Ravens in this one.
The Bengals are a good story, but they don't have the firepower to hang with Baltimore, even with QB Carson Palmer playing better. The Bengals made beating Cleveland an adventure and they aren't going to be able to make the same mistakes against a very talented Baltimore squad. I look for Baltimore to win behind their solid running game and strong defense, but don't expect a blowout. Cincy is better than people gave them credit for and they usually play the Ravens tough. Winner: Baltimore
2) Atlanta Falcons (2-1) at San Francisco 49ers (3-1) - Atlanta RB Michael Turner is going to have his work cut out for him when he faces the fourth ranked 49er run defense. The good news for the Falcons is that QB Matt Ryan and the p****ing game will be able to balance the Falcons attack, although the 49ers also rank 10th against the p****. The key for me is that without RB Frank Gore, Glenn Coffee is going to have to attack the light Atlanta Falcons defense. I think the 49ers are going to struggle to take advantage of that matchup, which means the 49ers are going to struggle to score points and will have to win a low scoring game. It's hard to stop the Falcons offense, so I am expecting them to prevail in a competitive game. Winner: Atlanta
3) Houston Texans (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-2) - The Arizona Cardinals need a bad defense to get back on track and the Texans are a perfect candidate. The only problem is that the Texans have a bad run defense, ranking 29th against the run, but have a good p**** defense ranking ninth. The Cardinals rank 31st in rushing offense. I have no confidence in the Cardinals to protect QB Kurt Warner right now and I think DE Mario Williams is going to have a very big day on defense. Houston has been inconsistent to start the season, but I think their offense has another big effort and they pull out the win in Arizona. Winner: Houston
4 New England Patriots (3-1) at Denver Broncos (4-0) - An interesting matchup between New England Head Coach Bill Belichick and his former ****istant, Josh McDaniels. The Broncos are winning behind a tough defense and good ball control. The Patriots are winning by p****ing the ball with Tom Brady and company. This is also a cl****ic matchup between the third ranked Broncos p**** defense and the Patriots fifth ranked p**** offense. It's hard to pick against New England after the way they handled the Atlanta Falcons and the Baltimore Ravens. Denver is exceeding expectations, but I think they drop their first game this week. Winner: New England
5) Indianapolis Colts (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (0-4) - Many thought this would be a battle for first place in the division. Instead it is a game where Tennessee is all but fighting for its season. It's not going to happen; the Titans are tied with Jacksonville for last place in p****ing defense and QB Peyton Manning has thrown for four straight 300-yard games. Look for Manning to put on a clinic against a poor Titan defense and look for Tennessee to fall five games behind the Colts in the AFC South. Winner: Indianapolis
My Newsletter will be posted every Tuesday on FoxSports.com. Here are my thoughts on the fourth week of the NFL. Please remember there are 32 teams in the NFL, there is no way I could mention every big play made by every player in every game. If you want to talk about your favorite team or player, just leave a comment about it and I while address it.
MVP of the Week: Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers led all quarterbacks in passing yards with 384, but it was Minnesota Vikings QB Brett Favre's week as he threw for 271 yards and three touchdowns in the Minnesota Vikings 30-23 win over his former employer, the Packers. Pittsburgh Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall led all running backs with 165 yards and two rushing touchdowns in a 35-28 win over the San Diego Chargers. WR Steve Smith shined, but not the Carolina Panther, rather the New York Giants with his 11 catches for 134 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-16 win over the Kansas City Chiefs.
Loser of the Week: Had to be the Packers offensive line, who allowed eight sacks, including 4.5 to Vikings DE Jared Allen in a 30-23 loss to the Vikings. The St. Louis Rams also have to be embarrassed about their 35-0 shutout in which their QB Kyle Boller had just 108 yards passing and RB Steven Jackson had just 79 yards rushing. The Buffalo Bills also have to be sickened by losing 38-10 to a Miami Dolphins team that was playing without QB Chad Pennington for the first time this year. Chad Henne in his first start only had to throw 22 times for 115 yards while the Dolphins ground game dominated the action.
Game of the Week: Lots of good games this week, but rarely do games live up to the hype, but the Packers and the Vikings was worth the hype. The game was a close 21-14 at the half, before the Vikings pulled away to a 30-14 lead. The Packers played well to get the score back to 30-23, but could not recover an onside kick to extend the game. The Steelers and Chargers also played a very exciting game, or at least one quarter of one. The Steelers jumped out to a 28-0 lead, but the Chargers outscored the Steelers 28-7 from the end of the third quarter to the end of the fourth quarter to pull within 35-28 with less than five minutes left. The Steelers hung on to the ball, exhausted the Chargers timeouts and kicked a field goal to take a 38-28 lead with less than two minutes left to seal the victory.
Honorable mentions to the Cincinnati Bengals surviving the Cleveland Browns 23-20 in OT and to the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots. The Patriots survived a dropped pass by Ravens WR Mark Clayton on fourth down that would have given the Ravens a first and goal with a chance to score the winning touchdown.
The Bay of Pigs: The Washington Redskins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are two struggling offenses that couldn't do anything against each other. The Buccaneers jumped out to a 10-0 lead, but the Redskins battled back for a 16-13 win. Redskins QB Jason Campbell led the passing attack with just 170 yards passing and RB Clinton Portis was held to 25 carries for 98 yards and no touchdowns.
The Mike Martz Award: I understand why Packers Head Coach, Mike McCarthy wanted to score a touchdown to pull within seven at 28-21. There were a couple problems with that. The Packers had three good chances and were not able to convert. Their line was blocking terribly and there was little reason to believe Rodgers would have time to throw. Finally, there was little reason to believe the defense would hold Favre in that situation to keep the field position in their favor. The smart play would have been to take the three points to pull within 28-17 and live to fight on. Instead TE Donald Lee dropped a pass in the end-zone and the Vikings took over on downs. Those three points would have been nice to have when the Packers were trailing 30-20 with less than 2:00 minutes left in the game. Now, the Vikings might have called their plays different had the Vikings scored, but it is a good lesson to learn that it is never advisable to leave points on the table in the third quarter, because they can come back to haunt you later on.
Injury Report: The biggest scare came to the New York Giant's QB Eli Manning, who injured his foot. It is being called a plantar fasciitis, but should not cause him to miss any time. Giants LB Michael Boley was not as fortunate, he is expected to miss a month with a knee injury. Rookie Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford had a dislocated knee cap that popped back into place and his status for the next couple weeks is up in the air. It is not expected to be season threatening. Finally, Oakland Raiders RB Darren McFadden is expected to miss two to four weeks with a knee injury.
Overall Impressions of Week Four:
1) Reaction to the Packers at Vikings- This was a pretty big regular season game, which is why I am devoting so much coverage to it. Here were my thoughts about the parties involved.
Brett Favre: Favre's legacy wasn't going to be affected by the outcome of this game. If he had thrown zero touchdowns and six picks, people would still have talked about him as an all-time great quarterback 20 years from now. What was at stake was whether this comeback was a good idea and in particular if he had a right to feel upset that the Packers showed him the door a little too early. He answered both of those questions with an empathic yes. He completed a high percentage of passes, threw for three touchdowns and kept the Packers defense on its heels all night long. Most importantly he didn't turn the ball over. He now has led the Vikings to a 4-0 record with eight touchdowns and one pick through four games. The experiment is a success so far and it shows why the Vikings wanted him to come there and why he still wanted to play. Time will tell if he can keep this up over the entire season, but so far all is good. He is the big winner of that football game and has really silenced the critics the last two weeks with his solid play.
Aaron Rodgers: Aaron Rodgers had a tough task last night, he brought a knife to a gun fight. His offensive line played as bad as a unit could play and he was sacked eight times. He rarely had more than two or three seconds to pass the ball. Yet he still managed to throw for a career high 384 yards passing and had two touchdown passes. Even when the team was down 30-16 he did not give up and had the Packers an onside kick away from making it interesting. In a game with a lot going against him he hung in there. That said, it has to be annoying for Packer fans that most of Aaron Rodger's positive moments seem to come in defeats. At the end of the day he has an 8-12 record as a starting QB and has only a 3-7 record on the road. Those road wins are against Detroit, Seattle, and St. Louis, teams that are a combined 8-52 overall since Rodgers became a starting QB for the Packers.
That isn't blaming all those losses on him; they are obviously not all his fault. I also think that there has been a rush to anoint him a franchise quarterback by people that are happy to see Favre out of town and want to validate Rodgers as quickly as possible. Franchise quarterbacks are expected to win, nothing more and nothing less. They are supposed to lead their teams to division titles and playoff victories. No one says Tom Brady, Brett Favre, or Peyton Manning played well in defeat. They are expected to win every game and when they don't critics are tearing the performance apart searching for answers to why they were less than perfect.
Rodgers hasn't reached that level, because he only gets credit for the wins and the blame falls on other people when the Packers lose. Let's flip the stats for a moment. If Favre had lost that game by seven points, thrown for 384 yards and two touchdowns, all while keeping the game interesting to the end, people wouldn't have talked about that. They would have talked about the pick and the fumble that cost the Vikings the points they needed to win the game. I will be convinced that Aaron Rodgers is a MVP caliber QB and a franchise type player when people in the media and the fans judge him they same way they judge other franchise quarterbacks. Until then he is a young quarterback with a lot of upside that still has a long way to go to prove he can carry a NFL franchise.
Mike McCarthy: I already talked about the bad call to go for it on fourth down instead of taking the sure field goal. Overall, McCarthy did a good job to keep his team in the game. When the score became 30-14, they could have quit and mailed it in, but they didn't. They fought back made some plays and gave themselves something to build on. He deserves credit for that. The problem is that for the fourth year in a row the Packers have the youngest team in the NFL and other than 2007 they have played that way. They keep making mistakes that cost them close games and after the game the reaction from McCarthy is that the Packers need to clean things up for next week. At 8-12 since going with Rodgers they need to do more than clean some things up, they need to start playing better on a more consistent basis, especially on the road.
The Packers cannot run or pass block, they can't run the ball and they are playing average defense. Other than their passing game they have very little else to feel good about. Now they have a bye before playing Detroit and at Cleveland. The next game after those two will be against Minnesota at Lambeau Field. They have to win both those games to get to 4-2 for the big rematch. It's only Week Four, but you already get the feeling the Packers are in must win mode trailing the Bears by one game and the Vikings by two. The schedule is there for them to recover, but McCarthy must step up and show he can turn this ship around and keep his young team playing hard. If he can't there are going to be a lot of calls from fans for the organization to head in a different direction at the end of the season.
Dom Capers: Everyone wants to blame the offensive line for the Packers problems this season, something I will get to in a minute when I talk about Ted Thompson. The defense hasn't exactly been a huge success either. All I heard about this offseason was how this revamped defense was going to turn the Packers fortunes around in 2009. It's too early to tell through four games, but there are some troubling statistics. The Packers are 15th in yards allowed, 22nd in points allowed, 17th in rushing yards allowed, 18th in passing yards allowed and 26th in quarterback sacks. Aaron Kampan is not putting any pressure on the quarterback and looks average at best in coverage. The one defensive stat they are dominating the league in is interceptions; their seven picks rank second. The problem is that was their strong suit last year, they didn't need to revamp the defense to fix that problem. Through four games this defense has shown some bright spots, most of them in the Chicago Bears game. It's too early to give up on Dom Capers and his 3-4 scheme, but this defense is not playing at the level it needs to play at and if it doesn't get better they will continue to struggle.
Ted Thompson: I don't have enough room to cover all of Thompson's moves that I don't agree with, but I will say this. It isn't a good sign when CB Charles Woodson is publicly questioning why the team cut ties with veteran safety Anthony Smith. He is a leader on that team, so maybe Thompson will ship him out of town like he did Favre for being mad about the failure to acquire Randy Moss. I have been critical of Ted Thompson for a couple years now, starting with the failure to acquire Moss. When the team went 13-3, I gave him credit for the young talent he infused into that team. Last year's 6-10 season was inexcusable, they had no depth to survive the injuries they suffered on defense and it is Thompson's job to make sure they have that depth. You would think after seeing those injuries he would have done something about that depth problem so that they didn't have a repeat of 2008 in 2009.
Instead, we are talking about injuries again, this time to the offensive line, because...you guessed it, they don't have any depth there either. This year he did nothing in free agency to address the defense, relying on two rookies and a new scheme to lead a turnaround. Had he been active in free agency to fix the offensive line that might have been acceptable. Instead the jury is still out on the defense and the offensive line has given up the most sacks in the NFL.
Part of the problem is that Rodgers is holding onto the ball too long, but even with that he is stilling getting little to no time to throw the ball. But you are seeing the problem with Thompson's vision, it works to have a lot of young players as long as there are no injuries to the veterans, but as soon as older players become injured (an everyday occurance in the NFL), there aren't a lot of good alternatives to put in the lineup and the team suffers for it. I have been on the record that if the Packers have another losing season he should be shown the door. I'm not going to predict a losing season yet and will see this through, but based on what I have seen so far it isn't looking good for Green Bay as long as Thompson is in charge.
Packer Fans: I love Packer fans, they are some of the most passionate and loyal fans in professional sports. I've been to Lambeau Field and the games have a high school feel to them. It is one of the most unique environments in professional sports. Most of the Packer fans understand the business of the NFL. The Packers wanted to move in another direction and Favre still wanted to play. It's time to let it go. Instead there were a number of Packer fans that have decided to brand Favre a traitor, burn his Packer jersey and talk trash about how going to the Vikings was going to help them with all the interceptions he was going to throw. Guess, what that didn't happen. He played a perfect game yesterday and it is time Packer fans man up and acknowledge that. Instead, I've been reading posts on the internet about how the Vikings were the better team and Rodgers played better given the talent he had around him; basically lowering expectations. That wasn't the song those people were singing a month ago when the Packers were going to roll through the NFC and into the Super Bowl behind MVP to be, Aaron Rodgers.
Packer fans found out what the Bears, Lions and Vikings fans have painfully understood since 1992; that when you go against Favre you have a better chance to lose the game than to win it. Favre owns a 63% winning percentage against division rivals in the NFC North. Now the Packers got to taste that for one game and it wasn't a lot of fun. If you are going to be mad at someone, you can be mad at Favre, but the person that traded him away was Thompson and now the Packers fan base is going to have to live with the consequences of that decision.
The good part is that the Packers now have a promising young quarterback to build around. There are some weeks where that is encouraging. The bad part is that they couldn't stop Favre from playing for the Vikings this year and in the short term they allowed a divisional opponent to become stronger with a player that used to symbolize their franchise.
When it is all said and done, Favre will always be a Green Bay Packer. Packer fans don't need to cheer for Favre this season, but they do need to make sure that they don't bash what he did as a Green Bay Packer. When he runs through the tunnel at Lambeau Field that he should receive the standing ovation he deserves for putting the Packer franchise back on the map. Cheer against him the rest of the game and the rest of the season, but he at least deserves that. In my opinion, continuing to hate Brett Favre reflects poorly on Packer fans.
2) Quarter Season Awards - Here's a look at my vote for these awards after first four games.
MVP: Petyon Manning (Indianapolis Colts) - You could go in a number of different directions here, starting with Saints QB Drew Brees or Vikings QB Brett Favre. The thing with Manning is that his team lost their much respected head coach, Tony Dungy to retirement and had a lot of turmoil during the offseason with their coaching staff. Peyton Manning is leading the NFL in passing yards with 1,336 and had four consecutive 300 yard games for the first time in his career. He has been as impressive as any player in the early going for a Colts team that has surprised me with a 4-0 start.
Offensive Player of the Year: Peyton Manning (Indianapolis Colts) - Sometimes you give the award to two different people if one is on a great team and one is on a bad team, but putting up great numbers. Manning has been so impressive to start the season, I would give him both awards.
Defensive Player of the Year: Darren Shaprer (New Orleans Saints) - The Packers let him go in free agency at age 29 after the 2004 season, because they feared he was becoming too old. He had 18 interceptions for the Vikings in four seasons and made two Pro Bowls. The Vikings let him go after only one interception last year, fearing that he was too old at 33. All he has done this year is record five interceptions and two defensive touchdowns through four games. His 59 career interceptions rank ninth all time and lead all active players. He is on pace for one of his biggest seasons on a team that is currently 4-0 and in first place in the NFC South.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Mark Sanchez (New York Jets) - He struggled in their loss to New Orleans, but in the other three games he had four touchdowns, one pick and a QB rating in the high 80s. He has rejuvenated the New York Jets and should be a bright spot for them for years to come. Honorable mention to Percy Harvin, who is playing some great wide receiver and returning kicks for the Minnesota Vikings.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Rey Maualuga (Cincinnati Bengals) - He has been a great find for them at middle linebacker and is one reason this defense is playing so well through the first four games. He has 19 tackles, one sack and two forced fumbles for a defense that is 10th in points allowed and 17th in yards allowed.
Coach of the Year: Sean Peyton (New Orleans Saints) - I've been critical of his play calling the last two years, but he is doing everything right now. The Saints are beating people both on the ground and through the air and are stopping teams with pressure on the quarterback and forcing turnovers. He has done an amazing job with this team through the first four games.
Front Office of the Year:Minnesota Vikings - Everyone said they were stupid for continuing to pursue Brett Favre through the off-season and into training camp, but after four games it looks like one of the most brilliant moves this off-season. They also get a great grade for going after Harvin in the draft; he looks like a home run hitter for them in the deep passing game and in kick returns.
Best AFC Team: Indianapolis Colts - You could go in a number of different directions here. The New England Patriots have beaten the Atlanta Falcons and Baltimore Ravens at home in back-to-back weeks. The Denver Broncos are playing much better defense this year, ranking second in yards allowed. The Baltimore Ravens have looked impressive in spots. I think I have to go with the Indianapolis Colts, who are 4-0 and winning their games by an average of 11.0 points per game, which is good for fourth in the NFL. They won consecutive road games against Arizona and Miami, two teams that made the playoffs last year. It is close, but I would say they have been the best so far.
Best NFC Team: New Orleans Saints - This one is pretty easy, the New York Giants and Minnesota Vikings have had good starts, but they aren't anything close to what the Saints have done. The Saints are averaging 36.0 points per game, while giving up only 16.5, which is good for a 19.5 point differential, which is first in the NFL. We'll find out if the Saints are ready to play with the heavy weights in a couple weeks when the Saints host the New York Giants. That game should give us an indication of whether the Saints are going to be able to play with a physical defense and stop a powerful offense that runs the ball and protects it as well.
Worst AFC Team: Cleveland Browns - They have scored just 49 points in four games this year and are losing by an average of 17.2 points per game. They already have switched QBs, going from Brady Quinn to Derek Anderson. The team appears to be revolting on Head Coach, Eric Mangini. It is a mess right now in Cleveland.
Worst NFC Team: The Browns are setting the bar low, so it is very hard to be worse than them. The Rams are averaging 6.0 points per game and have been shut out twice. They have a -84 point differential or in other words are losing by 21.0 points per game. Even the winless 2007 Lions only managed to lose by 15.3 points per game. They are easily the worst team in the NFL right now.
Most Surprising Team: Denver Broncos - I though picking the Broncos to finish 4-12 was about as safe of a pick as one could make. They were terrible on defense last year, hired a rookie coach in Josh McDaniels and had an offseason mutiny that sent QB Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears and had Brandon Marshall suspended for the pre-season. It looked like a disaster waiting to happen. They have started 4-0 and their 13.2 point per win margin leads all AFC teams and is second in the NFL. We'll find out if they are for real their next four games are against New England, at San Diego, at Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. If they are sitting at 6-2 or 7-1 after that stretch, I will have become a believer.
Most Disappointing Team: Tennessee Titans - They have some competition from Miami and Carolina, who also got out to slow starts, but the Titans are sitting at 0-4 right now and are giving up 27.0 points per game. Most people expected a slip with the departure of DT Albert Haynesworth, but no one saw this meltdown. They have games against Indianapolis and at New England, so 0-6 is not out of the question.
Coach on the biggest Hot Seat: Jim Zorn (Washington Redskins) - There are a lot of candidates you could put here and Zorn is at least sitting at 0-2, but he had the easiest start to the season that any coach could have asked for drawing the (0-4) St. Louis Rams, (1-3) Detroit Lions and (0-4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers. They beat the Rams 9-7, lost to the Lions 19-14 and beat the Redskins 16-13. They are scoring only 14.0 points per game on the season, despite playing the 27th, 32nd and 26th ranked scoring defenses the last three weeks. Daniel Snyder is not going to put up with this mediocrity for much longer and I wouldn't be surprised if Zorn is out of a job by the Week 8 bye if things don't turn around.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred's 2009 Regular Season Record: 42-20
This year I will not be including my picks in my newsletter, instead I will release them on Thursday as a separate article. Check back on Thursday as I release my picks for the upcoming games, with analysis of the big factors that will determine the winners.
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With three weeks in the books there are still a few teams that are anxious to earn their first win of the season, most surprisingly three division winners from 2008 (Carolina, Miami and Tennessee). while others are looking to build an early season lead in their division. There is only one game with 3-0 teams facing each other, New York Jets vs New Orleans Saints.
Here are the top five games I have identified for Week Four, with the rest of the games picked after that. My record for the season is 31-17.
01) Baltimore Ravens (3-0) at New England Patriots (2-1) - No one is playing better in the AFC than Baltimore right now, they have won their three games by 16.7 points per game, which is first among AFC teams and trails only New Orleans. Everyone knows about Baltimore's defense but their offense is stepping up to the plate this year. The Ravens are second in points scored and second in yards gained, trailing only the New Orleans Saints in both categories. Joe Flacco appears to be the franchise quarterback this team has not previously been able to find. The Patriots flexed their muscles by taking out a talented Atlanta team last week, but the Falcons can't stop the run and that allowed the Patriots to control the clock. This is going to be a very close game, but look for Baltimore to come out on top in this game. Their defense will not allow QB Tom Brady to have a big day and I expect the Ravens to move the ball much better than the Falcons did last week, which will allow them to score more than the 10 points Atlanta generated. Winner: Baltimore
02) New York Jets (3-0) at New Orleans Saints (3-0) - The only match-up between unbeaten teams we have the number one scoring and yardage offense versus a defense that is second in points allowed and third in yards allowed. It's very hard to pick against either team, but I think expecting rookie QB Mark Sanchez to walk into New Orleans and win is a bit much. No one is playing better than Drew Brees right now, he would be my pick for MVP thus far. Their offense is explosive both running the football and passing the football. New York has a fine squad and is headed in the right direction, but they are not going 16-0 this season and it makes sense to pick the unstoppable New Orleans offense at home to win this game. Winner: New Orleans
03) Dallas Cowboys (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0) - Denver has impressed me so far, their defense is much improved and they are running the ball very well. That said, they also beat Cincinnati on a miracle fluke play and then followed it up with wins over the poor Cleveland Browns and Oakland Raiders. This week they have a real test, playing a Dallas team with a much bigger offensive line that can run the ball down their throat. I think this will be a lot like the Monday Night Game Dallas played against Carolina. Dallas has way too much size on the offensive line for the quicker and undersized Denver defensive line. Tony Romo is not going to have a big passing day, but he should be able to do enough to earn Dallas a close victory. Winner: Dallas
04)San Diego Chargers (2-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2) - Pittsburgh keeps finding ways to lose close games, something they are normally very good at. You have to wonder how much of an affect not having S Troy Polamalu is having on their normally stingy pass defense. Pittsburgh ranked first in pass defense last year, they rank 15th through the first three games. Keep in mind that both of Pittsburgh's losses were on the road; they are normally very tough in Pittsburgh. I like the Steelers in this game. The Chargers are not running the ball well and are not stopping the run well. I think Willie Parker is going to have a big game against the Chargers and I don't think LaDainian Tomlinson or Darren Sproles will be able to help keep the Chargers offense in balance. Philip Rivers is a good QB, but he isn't going into Pittsburgh and throwing 50 times for victory, even with Polamalu hurt. Winner: Pittsburgh
05) Green Bay Packers (2-1) at Minnesota Vikings (3-0) - Just a regular season division rivalary between two good teams; no story lines or drama in this one. Wait, there is the minor part about QB Brett Favre, the iconic Green Bay quarterback going against his former team for the first time in his career. As much as people want to talk about that, I think Favre is going to have very little affect on the outcome of the game. The Packers offensive line cannot block right now, which is a problem when they are facing Jared Allen and the Williams Brothers. The other problem is that they rank 23rd against the run and have given up back to back 100-yard games. I think you will see Favre return to the role of "game manager," with the Packers offense being hurt by a loss in time of possession and from having no holes to run through or time for QB Aaron Rodgers to throw. Vikings win the Brett Bowl I. Winner: Minnesota
My Newsletter will be posted every Tuesday on FoxSports.com. Here are my thoughts on the third week of the NFL. Please remember there are 32 teams in the NFL, there is no way I could mention every big play made by every player in every game. If you want to talk about your favorite team or player, just leave a comment about it and I while address it.
MVP of the Week: Indianapolis Colts QB Peyton Manning showed why he is considered an all time great quarterback, yet again. Manning completed 24 passes in 35 attempts for 379 yards passing, including four touchdown passes, one pick and a QB rating of 130.5. That offensive explosion helped lead the Colts to a 31-10 win over the defending NFC Champion Arizona Cardinals. New Orleans Saints RB Pierre Thomas saw his first action of the season and proceeded to run 14 times for 126 yards and two touchdowns in the Saint's 27-7 win over the Buffalo Bills. Washington Redskins WR Santana Moss had the big game for receivers, catching 10 passes for 178 yards and one touchdown against the Detroit Lions, but Washington ended up losing that game 19-14, giving the Detroit Lions their first win since December 23, 2007, when the beat the Kansas City Chiefs 25-20. Detroit's next streak to end is a road-losing streak of 13 games, which dates back to October 28, 2007, when they beat the Chicago Bears in Chicago, 16-7.
Loser of the Week: You have to start with the Washington Redskins. Anytime you play a team that has lost 19 games in a row, you don't want to be the team that ends the streak. Washington has managed to score 23 points in two games against the defenses that were 31st and 32nd in points allowed in 2008. The problem in this game was running the ball. Clinton Portis had just 12 carries for 42 yards and no touchdowns. In three games he has 47 carries for 183 rushing yards and zero touchdowns. If he doesn't start playing better the Redskins will continue to struggle scoring points. You also have to wonder how hot the seat is for Head Coach Jim Zorn. The Redskins absolutely struggled with the two worst teams in the NFL last year and are lucky to have one win in those two contests. Owner Dan Synder is not someone that is going to patiently sit by and watch his team struggle with teams at the bottom of the NFL, although the word out of Washington is that Zorn's job is safe, for now.
I need to give an honorable mention to the Arizona offensive line, which played as bad of a game as an offensive line can play. QB Kurt Warner was sacked four times and knocked down so many more times that I can't believe he was able to walk at the end of the game. The Colts have a fast pass rushing defense, but the Cardinals have to do better than that against a defense that was on the field for 45 minutes just six days prior to the game.
Game of the Week: It would have to go to the San Francisco 49ers and Minnesota Vikings. The 49ers had a 24-20 lead with less than two minutes to play and had possession of the ball after Vikings QB Brett Favre threw an incomplete pass on fourth down. Unfortunately for the 49ers the Vikings had three timeouts and were forced to exhaust them stopping the run. Favre got the ball back with 1:29 left on the clock, no time outs and 80 yards to go. No problem. He led the Vikings on a 10-play drive that was capped off with a 32-yard strike to WR Greg Lewis at the back of the end zone with just two seconds remaining. The stunning play gave the Vikings a 27-24 win and a 3-0 start to their season. Even more stunning is the fact that Lewis had been inactive for the first two games of the season and had played only three plays previous to that catch in the entire game. He was as unlikely a hero as you will ever see.
I am also giving an honorable Mention to the Pittsburgh Steelers at the Cincinnati Bengals, who played a thrilling 23-20 contest that saw the Bengals pull the upset. Bengals QB Carson Palmer led a 16 play, 71-yard drive that ended with a pass to WR Andre Caldwell with just 14 seconds left in the game. The win puts the Bengals at 2-1, just a game back of the Ravens and leaves the Steelers at 1-2 with a big game coming up against the San Diego Chargers next week. They need to start winning games or the defending champions are going to be relegated to the Wild Card race. No team in the AFC is playing better than the 3-0 Baltimore Ravens and the Steelers cannot afford to lose more games in the standings to the front running Ravens.
The Bay of Pigs: There was no 9-7 game that was a slam-dunk like the Redskins and St. Louis Rams gave us last week, but I would go with the 23-3 victory by the Denver Broncos over the Oakland Raiders. Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell was held to 61 yards passing in this contest and the Raiders managed only 137 net yards. You just can't win in the NFL with an offense that is that inconsistent. The Raiders now rank 32nd in pass offense at 359 yards in three games, the next closest team is the Cleveland Browns, who have gained 440 passing yards. The gap of 81 yards is the same as the gap between the Cleveland Browns and the Minnesota Vikings, whose 521 yards rank 26th in the NFL. As long as the Raiders struggle to pass the ball they will continue to receive mention in this part of my newsletter.
The Mike Martz Award: I think you have to question the play calling / strategy of the San Francisco 49ers and their Head Coach Mike Singeltary at the end of their game. The San Francisco 49ers took a 24-20 lead with 8:17 left in the game. The 49ers had two drives after that and ran six plays, five rushing plays and one passing play. The 49ers gained negative one yards on the rushing plays and eight yards on the passing play, which was run on third down and 17 yards to go. The result was that the Vikings had three possessions in the final 8:17 minutes of the game.
In Singletary's defense, Favre hasn't looked like that for quite a while. The last 300-yard game he had was on November 22, 2007 against the Detroit Lions; he was still in a Packer uniform at that point. Last year he had two touchdowns and nine interceptions in his final five games. This year he ranked 32nd among starting quarterbacks in passing yards heading into that game. You have to think the 49ers didn't believe Favre was going to be able to go down the field like that at this point in his career.
But then you have another issue. The 49ers quit blitzing toward the end of that game. They had been bothering Favre with constant pressure the entire game and heading into that final drive Favre was 18 for 36 for 221 yards passing, one touchdown, one pick and a QB rating of 67.0. The 49ers went into a prevent defense and he was able to move around in the pocket, buy time and find receivers, which resulted in him going six for 10 for 80 yards, one touchdown, no picks and a QB rating of 118.8. Two of the incompletions were spikes to stop the clock; without those his QB rating was 145.8.
The 49ers are going to learn that you can't stop playing football and go with the prevent defense with a four-point lead and eight minutes left in the game, especially when the guy on the other sideline is Brett Favre. Better to learn that lesson now in an early regular season game than in a playoff game. Singletary is not the first coach to make that mistake and he will not be the last.
Injury Report: Lots of big injuries this week, none bigger than Miami Dolphin's QB Chad Pennington. Pennington dislocated his shoulder and is expected to miss the season. It is the third major shoulder injury for Pennington and at 33 years old you have to wonder what this does for his NFL future. The Chad Henne era is officially underway in Miami and at 0-3 the Dolphins need him to step up.
It also shows why the New York Jets were right to cut ties with Pennington last year. Even though the Brett Favre experiment ultimately was a disappointment; Pennington was never going to be able to take them to a Super Bowl. While they cut ties a year early, the Jets are in a much better position now with their rookie QB Mark Sanchez. It also was a good move for the Dolphins, Henne was not ready to start last year and if Henne ends up being a good QB, Pennington was a great transition from the 1-15 team into the Henne era. Pennington led that team to the playoffs and changed the culture in Miami. Time will tell if this is the end for Pennington in Miami, but I wish him well, he is an extremely talented player whose career has been hampered by unfortunate shoulder injuries.
Other injuries to report would start with 49ers RB Frank Gore. He is out at least two weeks with an ankle injury. St. Louis Rams QB Marc Bulger is going to be in doubt after bruising his rotator cuff. The Buffalo Bills lost two starters in their secondary, CB Leodis McKelvin has a broken bone in his leg and S Donte Whitner has a broken thumb. McKelvin's injury is serious and has him out indefinitely, while Head Coach Dick Jauron says the team will monitor Whitner's injury on a week-to-week basis. It is a big blow to a defense on a team that is already 1-2 and struggling to stay afloat in the AFC East. Colts DE Dwight Freeney hurt his right quadriceps and is scheduled for an MRI, but as of the publishing of this newsletter, there was no word as to the extent of the injury. Finally, Redskins DT Albert Haynesworth has a hip injury, but is expected to be able to play through it.
Overall Impressions of Week Three:
1) This is why the Vikings courted Brett Favre - I'm a little tired of people saying that Favre silenced the critics. He started 8-3 and silenced the critics last year, but once he went 1-4 over the final games and played a terrible end to the season the critics reemerged. The fact is that if he has a five interception game the critics will reemerge. If he crashes at the end of this regular season the critics will reemerge. If he loses a playoff game the critics will reemerge. Anything short of a Super Bowl win is going to give his critics ammunition and they will not be silenced unless the Vikings win a Super Bowl, which in that case it will be a discussion of how little credit Favre deserves and how he was carried there by a great defense and star RB Adrian Peterson.
You can never silence critics, you can only keep them quiet for a limited time. I think that Sunday confirms to the objective football person why the Vikings thought they needed this guy, even though he turned the team down in July and recommitted later in August. Ask yourself, do the Vikings win that game if Tavaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels is the quarterback in that exact same situation, 89 seconds left in the game, down four points, 80 yards to go and no time outs.
According to ESPN's John Clayton they don't. Over the past three years, the Vikings have averaged about nine games per season that have been decided by eight points a less. The Vikings have a record in those games of 13-16. Furthermore, some of those games were games where they were ahead and the defense made stops to preserve the lead. Last year the Vikings had the ball down five in the final minutes at Green Bay and Jackson threw a pick to seal the loss. They had two possessions against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers down by six points and failed to score a touchdown last in the fourth quarter. They lost to Atlanta by seven points and had the ball in the final two minutes, but turned the ball over on downs.
This is a game the Vikings should have lost. The 49ers had the lead and the Vikings were a dead team walking in the second half. They couldn't establish Peterson in the running game, Favre was misfiring on passes and their only touchdown in the second half was a long kickoff return by Percy Harvin. This was a game the 49ers should have won and had they played that game agianst Rosenfels or Jackson, I believe the 49ers would have won.
The difference is that the Vikings had a guy that despite being in the twilight of a Hall of Fame career, he can still do that. That is why he is still the most followed athlete in the NFL. That is why he can't decide whether or not to retire. Even though he can't play at the same level as when he was 25-years old, he still has enough left in the tank to do something like that. There is nothing that can replace that feeling and as long as he can do that, people are going to tune in to watch no matter how annoyed they are with the retirement saga that occurs from February to August.
That isn't an excuse for him not being able to make a decision until training camp is done. The thing people have to understand is that most quarterbacks that are 40-years old can't play at the level he can play. Even at this advanced age he does things that continue to amaze. Like I have said in the past, enjoy rooting for him or against him, because we are watching a once in a lifetime athlete. When it is done it is done and we will never see another one like him. Just when people thought the magic was done, The Old Gunslinger or as Jared Allen calls him, The Silver Fox, pulled one more trick out of the old hat. We'll see how the Vikings use this momentum to carry them into the most anticipated regular season game in recent memory, the Vikings and Favre facing his old team, the Green Bay Packers.
2) How bad are things in Tennessee, Carolina, and Miami - All three of these teams were division champions last year and the Titans and Panthers had first round byes. These were among the best teams in the NFL just a season ago. It shows that last season was last season; all three teams have started 0-3. The last time three division champs started 0-3 the following year was 1999, when the Denver Broncos, New York Jets, and Atlanta Falcons all started 0-3. The Falcons would finish 5-11, the Broncos 6-10 and the Jets 8-8. All three teams missed the playoffs. Furthermore, the last team to start 0-3 and make the playoffs was the 1998 Buffalo Bills. It's going to be a very difficult chore for these teams to turn their seasons around, even though there are still 13 games to play.
Miami's slow start is the most expected of the three divisional winners. They were 1-15 in 2007 and surprised everyone with an 11-5 turnaround in 2008. A 7-1 record against the two most anemic divisions in the NFL, the AFC West and NFC West fueled the big turnaround. This year they have the toughest schedule in the NFL and faced the Atlanta Falcons, Indianapolis Colts and San Diego Chargers. All three teams were playoff teams in 2008 and the Falcons and Colts won over ten games in 2008.
The Panthers are also somewhat expected, although I thought they would be able to make a wild card push this year. Their biggest problem has been QB Jake Delhomme and the offense and while I didn't think they would be as good as last year, I didn't think they would be this bad either. Last year the Panthers ranked third in the NFL in rushing yards and first in rushing touchdowns with 30; this year they rank 21st and have scored only two rushing touchdowns. That means Delhomme needs to step up and give them solid production in the passing game to penalize teams for putting eight in the box. He currently has two touchdowns, seven picks, seven sacks and a 54.3 QB rating that ranks 31st among starting quarterbacks in the NFL; only Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell ranks lower. As a result the Panthers rank 29th in scoring offense at just 12.3 points per game, so bad that it is worse than the Washington Redskins. That is not a recipe for success.
Tennessee has to be the most surprising team in the NFL. They opened up their season with a heartbreaking loss to the Steelers. The Steelers have since lost games at the Chicago Bears and at the Bengals. They lost their next game to the Houston Texans, who also sits at 1-2 with losses to the New York Jets and Jacksonville Jaguars. The New York Jets are 3-0 and playing as good as any team in the NFL.
Former Head Coach and current Dolphin Exceutive Vice President of Football Operations Bill Parcells once said, "You are what your record says you are." Right now the Titans are not a very good football team. One of the biggest problems is they have no efficiency in their passing game, Kerry Collins ranks 29th in QB rating at 69.9. His 55.2 completion percentage ranks 26th in the NFL. He is also turning the ball over; his four picks are tied with numerous players for fourth most in the NFL. All of those numbers are worse than what he averaged last year.
Their run defense has been stellar, ranking second in the NFL at 60.7 rushing yards allowed per game. Unfortunately, they aren't doing very well in the pass defense. This year quarterbacks have a QB rating of 100.7. Teams are completing 67.0 percent of their passes and they have given up seven touchdown passes while securing only three interceptions. Compare that to last year when they gave up only 12 touchdown passes the entire season and had the third best pass defense in terms of QB rating allowed at 69.2. A lot of that can be attributed to DT Albert Haynesworth no longer being with the team. Last year he drew a lot of double teams in the middle and the result was 44 sacks, which ranked fifth in the NFL. The Titans are still sacking the QB with seven sacks (tied for 8th in the NFL), but what aren't showing up in the stat sheets are the QB pressures and hurries that aren't there this year.
Of those three teams, the team I expect to have the best chance to turn this around is the Tennessee Titans. For as many problems as they have had, the silver lining for the Titans is that they have lost their three games by a combined total of 17 points. This isn't a situation like the Cleveland Browns who are 0-3 and been outscored by 66 points. The Tennessee Titans are still a dangerous team that can comeback from this. While they are three games back in the division to the Indianapolis Colts, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans are just 1-2. If they can get on a roll second place is easily obtainable, which could mean a wild card birth.
The other two teams I think are done. The Dolphins needed Pennington to stay healthy; they are not going to survive that schedule with backup QB Henne learning on the job. The Panthers could only be so lucky, Jake Delhomme is playing terrible and deserves to be benched, but they don't have many good options behind him. He was signed to a five year extension with $20.00 million guaranteed in April, a move that was designed to free up cap space, but was puzzling given how Delhomme played in the playoffs last year and given the Tommy John surgery he had during the 2007 season. I just don't see how they are going to survive in a division with the Atlanta Falcons and the New Orleans Saints with a quarterback and running game that can't move the team down the field and can not stop turning the ball over.
A Look Ahead:
Street Cred's 2009 Regular Season Record: 31-17
This year I will not be including my picks in my newsletter, instead I will release them on Thursday as a separate article. Check back on Thursday as I release my picks for the upcoming games, with analysis of the big factors that will determine the winners.
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