I think any NBA fan should be wary anytime your team is looking at any player whose skills are "raw," especially on offense. For the life of me, I cannot remember a single player entering the NBA draft who was described as raw who ever lived up to their so-called potential; do Jonathan Bender, Al Harrington, Josh Smith, Patrick O'Bryant, Mahmoud Sene, and Macie Lampej ring a bell? In the history of the NBA, nobody has ever gone from terrible to All-Star offensively, and rarely defensively. Dwight Howard has been in the NBA 5 years and dude still has no baby hook? I once read that some scouts have hope for Thabeet's offensive game because of his free throw stroke (he maxed out his sophomore year at 69.8%); these scouts should be issued a lifetime ban. Thabeet is a miserable passer (about half an assist a game), can be moved fairly easily from his post position, has no offensive moves, has a fairly high turnover rate for a player not involved in the offense, and cannot shoot outside of 3 feet. Hasheem Thabeet will never be more than an offensive liability. I guess the glass-half-full view is that there's nowhere to go but up.
Thabeet's NBA comparison is allegedly Dikembe Mutombo, but it's likelier that he's more Shawn Bradley than Deke. Here's a comparison of their college stats in their best season (Thabeet as a 22 year old junior, Mutombo as a 24 year old junior, and Bradley as an 18 year old freshman):
Thabeet PTS 13.6 REB 10.8 AST .5 STL .6 BLK 4.2 FG% .640 FT% .627 MPG 31.8
Mutombo PTS 15.2 REB 12.2 AST 1.6 STL .6 BLK 4.7 FG% .586 FT% .703 MPG 34.1
Bradley PTS 14.8 REB 7.7 AST 1.2 STL .7 BLK 5.2 FG% .582 FT% .692 MPG 28.9
Other than Bradley's rebounding number (which is superior to the freshman numbers of both Thabeet and Mutombo, 6.4 and 3.3 respectively), the numbers match up fairly well. Additional factors come into play in translating those college performances into professional play. Bradley played in the WAC, many of whose teams are now in the Mountain West, so the competition wasn't that imposing with the exception of Utah. At the same time, he played with lackluster teammates. He also took two years off from basketball to serve as a missionary. Thabeet and Mutombo played in the Big East, the premier conference in college basketball. Mutombo played alongside Alonzo Mourning in an era where college basketball was much deeper and Thabeet played with talented perimeter players in an era where the best players play for a season or two and leave.
Thabeet weighs some 30 pounds more than Bradley's playing weight, but true big men have brutalized him with his surprising weakness (DeJuan Blair, anybody?) and poor footwork. Mutombo was a rock in the post, moved only by the human steamroller Shaquille O'Neal. Dikembe and Shawn never developed consistent offensive games, but Mutombo won defensive player of the year 4 times and Bradley was in the top 10 in blocks every season of his career despite largely coming off the bench.
Hasheem Thabeet has a long way to go to prove that he's a budding Mutombo. It's more likely he'll have a career more comparable to Shawn Bradley but with better rebounding instincts. At worst, he'll be an Adonal Foyle, at best Dikembe Mutombo. What you have to ask yourself is if that's worth a very high lottery pick, even in this terrible draft. If you're the Grizzlies and have needs at every position, you need somebody who'll be more versatile. He might be a fit for the Thunder who could just use someone in the middle to ignite the break with blocks and rebounds.
Thabeet is not going to be a superstar and probably not be one of the best defensive players of his generation, but considering that Shawn Bradley earned $70 million in the course of his career, there are worse lives to have.
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