You're thinking this is premature, and you're right, but I've got a lot of time on my hands and an Internet connection at home combined with NBA season withdrawals; this blog is a result.  I'm calling a Bulls-Spurs final with the Spurs narrowly edging the youngsters due to more big-game experience.

Here is why the Bulls will win the East:

Detroit is taking a big step back.  The issue isn't just the play of Big Ben replaced by the play of Mohammed; it's what Wallace's departure will get the other players thinking.  Billups is in the last year of his contract, so he'll want to play in such a way that gets him paid in his last opportunity to get a big deal - this may lead him to play something other than team basketball.  Without the primary enforcer and motivator around, who keeps an eye on Rasheed?  Saunders is a smart coach, but not the culture-creating iconoclast that wins championships.  Other than Rudy T and maybe Chuck Daly, can you name an NBA coach who's won a championship that doesn't have an overwhelming presence in the locker room?  Larry Brown is a diva, but he gave the team the edge they needed to win it all despite not having a star who could consistently take over games.  Add to that Dumars gave away potential future building-blocks in trading Darko and Maurice Evans.  The Pistons are still very skilled and very experienced, but they now lack the toughness and togetherness that gave them the razor's edge advantage over all of their opponents.

The Heat are a one-hit wonder

I'll start with the counter-argument on behalf of Wade & Co.  Dwyane Wade is just going to get better.  Lest we forget, His Airness began his career as a pathetic outside shooter previous to his becoming the record-holder for threes made in the playoffs, and there's no reason for us to believe someone as driven and gifted as Wade won't adopt new skills.  Miami can count on a weakened Detroit and other than the Bulls, a conference bereft of worthy opponents.  Like this year, whoever comes out of the East can anticipate an opponent that has expended tremendous energy just to escape the West playoffs.

So much is stacked against the South Floridians.  Repeating a title run is difficult in any sport, but especially in the unique era of NBA parity.  Miami won the title in large part because Dallas had been bloodied by the Spurs and Suns, evidenced by Jason Terry's legs not being in his shots (do you really think he couldn't score on that perimeter D?) and Dirk too tired to go to the hole.  Pat Riley should send gift baskets to Poppovich and D'Antoni.  After such a cathartic victory, how hungry will Riley and his 15 Strong be?  Shaq will be a year creakier as will Payton and Mourning.  Williams, Haslem and Posey are playing at their peak.  While Wade has established himself as one of the game's premier crunch-time performers, what happens if he rolls his ankle, not for the first time?  And Mourning isn't even a lock to come back.  Remember that this "warrior" back-stabbed both the Nets and Raptors, so apparently losing a kidney hasn't diminished his love of the dollar.  Now that they've proven themselves, it remains to be seen if this group with several players with character issues will hold it together for a title run.  Ask the 2004 Lakers: a team with three stars years past their prime with a top-notch two-guard will still be dangerous, but not quite fit for the title.

The East is Still Least

Cleveland will be marginally better, as will New Jersey, but unless LeBron becomes MJ and Krstic becomes Duncan, we can comfortably ignore the Nets and Cavs come conference finals time. 

Regarding New Jersey, Jason Kidd is still awesome even a bit slower, and he'll be better rested now that Marcus Williams is on board.  Hopefully Williams will have more thefts on the court than off.  Vince Carter is the David Robinson of guards: Hall of Fame numbers, but not the guy who wins playoff games for you.  East coast whiners complain of a lack of respect for Jefferson, but they should complain of his lack of jump shot and lack of delivering in big games.  Krstic, like all Euros, plays no defense, so considering the last champion that won without excellent post play was nobody, cancel the parade through town.

Many NBA followers, especially the media, would love for LeBron to be the next Jordan, leading his previously destitute team to glory.  But the bad news for James fans is that his opponents score like Paris Hilton at a frat house; MJ took it as a personal offense when his opposition succeeded.  Sadly, ferocity generally isn't a characteristic you go out and get.  Big Z has nowhere to go but down.  Damon Jones now has to endure the cruel world known to slow-footed perimeter chuckers who don't have the benefit of double-teams on Duncan/O'Neals/Stoudemire or draw and kick guys like Nash.  The Cavs need three things: a savvy point guard, a shooter who can create his own shot, and a sadistic coach.  Eric Snow was the right guy for the PG job six years ago, but now they need a newer model.  Why not make a play for Brevin Knight?  Shannon Brown may actually the shooter/scorer they need.  As talented as Mike Brown is, he hasn't convinced the team to play the kind of defense he was schooled in under Carlisle and Poppovich.  It doesn't take that long for the right coach to get his team at least on the right path - Exhibit A is Avery Johnson and the previously defensively-defunct Mavs.  Defense is mostly an issue of effort, which effort is shaped by the coach rewarding and punishing play.  LBJ could be the league's premier defender, given his physical skills and instincts, but he has to be shown the way.

Everybody else is completely doomed.  Paul Pierce excluded, the Celtics are a playground team.  Artest flushed a beautiful thing in Indy down the toilet and they won't recover.  The Bobcats and Knicks might make the Elite Eight in March Madness.  Milwaukee is three players and a coaching staff away from contending.  Basically, it's the Heat and Bulls with the rest in the dust.

The Bulls are Actually That Good

In 2005-06 Chicago led the league in field goal percentage defense and was fourth in defensive rebounding.  Whereas they were weak in shot-blocking, they bring in four-time Defensive POY and swat king Ben Wallace as well as defensive dynamo Tyrus Thomas.  If TT has half the offensive game he claims to have not used due to the system at LSU, he'll win Rookie of the Year handily.  With those two and P.J. Brown down low they'll have more possessions, which they'll need not being the most offensively-efficient team quite yet.  Hinrich and Gordon already provide reliable scoring, but if Deng, Smith, and Thomas progress as hoped, their scoring woes will disappear.  Skiles will keep this team prepared for opponents and has already progressed as an in-game decision maker.  He'll find a way to channel the energy of the guys who are coming up for contract extensions into feisty team play.  These guys are actually a lot like the '99 Spurs but without the same amount of veteran leadership.  If this isn't their year to come out of the East, then wait one more; it will come.

How the West Will Be Won by the Spurs

The Suns Still Don't Have a Bench

Phoenix ended the season with many questions, many of which were answered negatively in the off-season.  The biggest is how well does Amare come back; is he Penny Hardaway or Antonio McDyess?  Both were fantastic players who were never the same, not even when healthy.  Jason Kidd has come back nicely, but his injury wasn't as severe and he still dropped a notch in his game.  Even at the top of his game, Amare couldn't guard his own shadow and didn't rebound that well for someone of his size and athleticism.  Healthy or not, Stoudemire is still only one player and will not compensate for the Suns' biggest problem, that being the lack of depth.  No offense to Barbosa, but every time Steve Nash was lying down on the sidelines, everybody watching cringed just a little.  Though he shouldn't have won either MVP award, so much of what the Suns do relies on Nash's awesome decision-making, and when he leaves the floor most of the team's basketball IQ goes with him.  Nash winning the MVP is a lot like a DH or closer winning the MVP in baseball: obviously he's excellent in one dimension of the game, but doesn't every part of the game matter? 

The sad thing is they had opportunities to address depth problems with two first-rounders, but they gave the picks away.  And what have they done in free-agency?  They bring in another shooter, already their greatest strength, rather than bring in somebody who could defend, rebound, block shots, or pass.  In addition, their value was artificially inflated by the play of Tim Thomas, who was playing hard for the first time in a decade so he could get a new contract.  Having Kurt Thomas and Amare back will help, but Diaw's effectiveness will be lessened.  Speaking of Amare, has anyone of that size, skill, and athleticism been a poorer rebounder?  Who will hit big shots when Nash inevitably wears out?  The answer, as it has been for three years, is nobody.  That along with an open contempt for defense will doom the Suns in second or third play out west yet another year.

Mavericks will take a few steps forward, a few steps back

No sane basketball observer will say that Dallas won't be right in the mix to win the West and even the whole thing.  But lest we forget, Cuban and Co were one brain-dead foul by Manu Ginobili from watching the rest of the playoffs from home.  As far as advantages of next year over this one, they'll have another year of tutelage from Avery Johnson as well as experience for the coach, which will help especially in late-game and playoff situations, a significant reason Pat Riley's squad won.  Cuban has seen the wisdom of keeping a core group together, so they'll be even tighter as a unit.

However, a few questions linger regarding to how well Dallas can do this year compared to the last.  This last year, Jason Terry was playing for a contract; will he be Ray Allen and submit an even better year after his monster deal or will he be Eddy Curry and phone it in now that he's gotten all the dollars he needs?  If you don't think that's a legitimate question, ask the teams that have/had Tim Thomas, Curry, Ike Austin, Stephen Jackson, Steve Francis, etc.  Perhaps the more significant concern is that nearly all of the Mavericks' players are playing at their peak or just beyond.  Other than Devin Harris and maybe Josh Howard and Diop, these guys have hit their ceiling.  Stackhouse is probably going to be worse as more injuries and physical restraints come with his age.  How much better can Dirk get?  Will the defensively-challenged Croshere actually get minutes on Avery's squad?  Dirk and the gang will be right back in it, but the track record of teams that lose in the Finals over the last few decades is less than an encouraging sign for their title hopes.

Yes, You Can Count Out Everybody but the Mavs, Spurs, and Suns

Who you got, the Warriors?  They'll most probably be even worse than last year.  Memphis can't win a playoff game, which will change if Gay becomes a star, but who will play point?  The Clippers are up-and-coming, but lack the seasoning.  Same with Utah.  With all of the long-term contracts on the Kings, they've pretty much cemented their slightly-above-mediocre status for years.  I'm better than the Nuggets' guards and other than Carmelo, their frontcourt is a reliable as election results in the Soviet Union.    

Delusional Lakers fans: you aren't getting Garnett unless you give up Kobe.  People who talk about Lamar Odom's potential: thank you for the comedy.  What does he have to do to convince you he's never going to get it?  Show up year after year without spending a minute in the weight room over the summer?  Not develop reliable post moves?  Display incompetent defense?  Get called obscene names by his own coach?  The Lakers' bench would be a middle-of-the-pack WNBA team.  Good luck, Farmar.

That the Rockets are not championship material is a sure sign of bad GM work.  They have two pieces most teams would kill to have: an increasingly dominant center and a top-five player on the perimeter.  McGrady is even a premier playoff performer.  It is a crime that Houston is not on par with the other Texas teams, but with a supporting cast worse than a Vin Diesel movie, these guys are doomed.

Everybody else is too doomed to mention.

The Spurs Will Bounce Back

It's just their way.  They can't win two rings in a row.  They weren't too far off this year - as I mentioned earlier, they were one play from advancing to the conference finals where they would have dispatched the Suns (who nearly lost to the Lakers.  The Lakers!)  San Antonio matches up better with Miami than Dallas: Josh Howard isn't exactly Bruce Bowen guarding Wade (who serves up a brickfest every time in that matchup) and Duncan is one of the game's premier low-post scorers, something Dallas has in minimal supply.

These guys are flat-out winners.  They play suffocating and clutch defense, have three reliable big-time scoring options, and clutch shooting and playmaking.  Does anyone think Parker won't get even better after doing so his whole career?  He just turned 24.  Ginobili and Duncan were both slowed by injuries, but both figure to be healthy.  We should also take into account this will be the first summer in a long time that no Spur will be obligated to play for a national team, a problem in years past as far as contributing to fatigue.  Since they lost in the second round, the Spurs had even more time to rest this year. 

Don't forget that the Spurs have one of the league's best coaching staffs and the best player personnel department.  San Antonio's leadership will make the correct adjustments to diminish previous weaknesses and mistakes, which aren't that numerous to begin with.  Already a top-notch team just a razor's edge worse than the Mavs this year, Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili all are due better seasons than the last.  With more mobility in the game plan and another year for Finley to adjust to his role, you can expect the Spurs to be even stronger, smarter, and better-rested.

Why San Antonio Will Beat Chicago

My proposed finals would be a bloody battle, but one won by the more experienced and savvy team.  The big-game experience of Duncan and crew would dwarf the upstart Bulls.  I envision these finals a lot like the '95 finals, the Bulls playing the role of the Orlando Magic as the young/athletic team with all the potential in the world being outclassed by the smarter/experienced team led by a world-class big man in the Spurs playing the Houston Rockets part.  I honestly believe that this Bulls team will win a championship or a few in the near future, but not before one last hurrah from Team Duncan.