Since the NFL has 6 teams on a bye for an unprecedented third straight week, I decided I'd take a bye as well...

Week 9 NFL Picks

ATLANTA (-10) over Washington
Green Bay (-9½) over TAMPA BAY
NEW ENGLAND (-10½) over Miami
Kansas City (+6½) over JACKSONVILLE
INDIANAPOLIS (-9) over Houston
CINCINNATI (+3) over Baltimore
Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO
Detroit (+10) over SEATTLE
NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Carolina
SAN FRANCISCO (-4½) over Tennessee
San Diego (+4½) over NY GIANTS
PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas
Pittsburgh (-3) over DENVER

Last week: 3-10

Season: 60-55-1

With the first set of BCS rankings released this week and more NFL Power Polls than you can shake a remote at available on the Internet, Sports in a Can has decided to get into the action. Welcome to the inaugural Sports in a Can NFL Rankings.

First, let's explain how the list came to be. I was trying to decide how good the Broncos are. They are 6-0 but the image of their opening week win--which only came to be because of one of the flukiest plays in NFL history--still gnaws at me every time I consider how good they are. That game clearly could have gone either way if you think about it. And really any NFL game decided by 8 points or less is one play away from going the other way.

That led to my realization that every team really has three sets of win totals: 1. their actual number of wins; 2. the number of games they would have won if they won every close game; and 3. the number of games they would have won if they lost every close game. I define close games as any game decided by 8 points or less.

And that's it. That's the formula. Put even more simply:

a win by 9+ points is worth 3 points
a win by 1-8 points is worth 2 points
a loss by 1-8 points is worth 1 point
a loss by 9+ points is worth 0 points

I kept it simple by using the above method, even though a team who scored a late touchdown to cut the lead to under 8 really skews the formula. But I wanted something that could be figured out quickly for any team in this or any season.

To test the formula, I looked at last season's teams. At the end of the regular season, the Tennessee Titans would have had the #1 ranking with a rating of 36. They won 13 games, had 1 close loss, and 4 close wins (13 wins + 14 potential wins + 9 potential wins, or (9*3) + (4*2) + (1*1) = 36). They were upset in the playoffs by the Baltimore Ravens--who won 11 games but would have had a rating of 35, just one behind Tennessee. Arizona's rating was 27, and the teams they beat on the road to the Super Bowl had ratings of 29 (Atlanta), 32 (Carolina), and 31 (Philadelphia). Maybe those playoff results weren't so crazy after all.

And if you want some historical perspective, the best regular season rating I've seen is 44, accomplished by the 2007 Patriots (who went on to lose the Super Bowl to a team with an improbably low rating of 26). The 1985 Bears finished the regular season with a 43 (their "close games" were defined as games decided by 7 or less since the two-point conversion was not in effect back then). And the number teams would like to avoid is 5. That would be the rating the Lions achieved last season thanks to their 5 close losses and 0 wins.

Since we are through 6 weeks a perfect rating would be 18 (six wins by 9 or more). For any team that has already had their bye, I have taken their per game average and multiplied by 6.

Any ties were broken by looking in depth at each team's slate of games to date. Other than that, the numbers speak for themselves.

Without further ado, here is the first ever Sports in a Can NFL Rankings (the number in parentheses is the team's rating according to the above formula):

32 Tampa Bay (2)
The winless Buccaneers are the worst team in the league right now. They barely get the nod over the Rams by virtue of their 7-point loss last week to Carolina. Other than that they have one 3-point loss and 4 losses of 9 or more. But it was this close between these two teams.

31 St. Louis (2)
Their overtime loss to the Jags last week just barely keeps the Rams out of the cellar.

30 Detroit (3)
Another toss-up between teams with the same rating, but the Lions' lone close loss was an 8-point loss to the Steelers that no one really thought they had a chance of winning, right?

29 Cleveland (3)
The Browns could have won their overtime game against the Bengals, which keeps them a spot above the Lions.

28 Tennessee (3)
The winless Titans ahead of two teams with 1 win each even after their 59-0 loss to New England? Only because the Titans have played one more close game than the Lions and Rams have. Sure, Tennessee lost all three of their close games but they were one play away in each game. Of course, if they keep playing like they did against the Patriots last week they could find themselves at the bottom of this list soon enough.

27 Kansas City (4)
All hail the Chiefs, who finally posted a win after coming close in overtime against the Cowboys and losing by 3 to the Raiders in Week 2.

26 Oakland (5)
Speaking of the Raiders, their win over Philadelphia last week slots them in at #26--still the worst of all the teams with 2 or more wins.

25 Carolina (6)
After an 0-3 start the Panthers have won back-to-back games, but both by 7 or less. Meanwhile quarterback Jake Delhomme has thrown 10 interceptions in 5 games.

24 Seattle (7)
The Most Jekyl and Hyde team in the league, the Seahawks have won 2 games by a combined score of 69-0 but have lost 3 games by a combined score of 84-30. They sit behind Buffalo until we can figure out which team is going to show up each week. But keep this in mind: The Cardinals lost 4 games by 9 or more last season--more than any other playoff team--and ended up in the Super Bowl. But 3 losses by that much this early in the season is a bad sign for Seattle.

23 Buffalo (7)
The Bills should have beaten the Patriots Week 1 but since then it's been a roller coaster ride, including their bizarre win over the Jets last week. They've allowed 961 rushing yards just in the last 4 games. If they continue giving up yards on the ground at that pace it's going to be a long season.

22 Miami (7.2)
The Wildcat offense is about as erratic as the Dolphins' entire team. They almost beat the Colts, then struggled against the Chargers. They blew out the Bills then barely got by the Jets. How this team fares in it's next three games--against the Saints, Jets, and Patriots--could determine how the rest of the season will go.

21 San Diego (7.2)
The Chargers are ahead of the Dolphins simply because they won their head-to-head match-up, but things are not good in San Diego. They can't run the ball and they can't stop anyone. There are going to be quite a few shoot-outs in the Chargers' future.

20 Jacksonville (8)
The Jaguars lost to Seattle by 41 and barely beat the lowly Rams in overtime last week. And yet there are 12 worse teams than them in the NFL.

19 Washington (8)
Washington is the only team on the board who, with a play per game going the right way, could be either undefeated or winless. Every Redskins game has been decided by 8 points or less. This can't possibly continue, can it?

18 Cincinnati (9)
Why are the 4-2 Bengals sitting behind 9 teams with 3 wins? They are the only team in the top 24 without a defining win (a win by 9 or more) and their 11-point loss to the Texans last week goes in the "unwinnable game" category. Five of the Bengals' six games have been decided by 7 points or less--which means they could just as easily be 0-6 as they could 5-1. They've had some big wins (and should have won Week 1) but until they start putting teams away, their rating is going to continue to suffer.

17 NY Jets (9)
After a 3-0 start, the last 3 weeks have been a disaster for the Jets. Were quarterback Mark Sanchez's first three games too good to be true?

16 Houston (10)
Of course the perpetually 8-8 Texans are right in the middle of the pack. Where else would they be?

15 Arizona (10.8)
The 2009 Cardinals are just hanging around, beating the bad teams and losing to the good teams. They have six games the rest of the way against teams .500 or better and four games against teams with a combined 1 win, so they theoretically could cruise to an 8-8 record without breaking a sweat.

14 San Francisco (10.8)
The 49ers beat the Cardinals head-to-head, so they get the nod for the #14 spot. Who can figure this team out right now? They had a win against the Vikings in the books until Favre's last-minute heroics but two weeks later they're losing 45-10 to Atlanta--at home. They have a very similar remaining schedule to the Cardinals' (including one more head-to-head game) and finally have #1 pick Michael Crabtree in the lineup and running back Frank Gore back from injury.

13 Chicago (10.8)
Improbably, the Bears currently have the same rating as the Cardinals and 49ers. But they have only one win over a quality team to go with two close losses to good teams.

12 Baltimore (11)
The Ravens would have been near the top of the rankings after three straight wins (two of them via the blowout) to open the season. But three straight losses have Baltimore stuck closer to the middle of the pack.

11 Philadelphia (12)
Just looking at the numbers I had Philadelphia coming out ahead of the five other teams with a 12 rating. Until I looked at the fact that the Eagles' three "take care of business games" came against the 25th, 27th, and 32nd ranked teams on this list. That would have been fine until they lost to the 26th-ranked Raiders last week. This automatically disqualifies the Eagles from winning any tiebreakers.

10 Green Bay (12)
Like the Eagles, the Packers' biggest wins have come against the dregs of the league (30th ranked Detroit and 31st ranked St. Louis). Their much-awaited rematch with Brett Favre and the Vikings is next weekend, though.

9 Atlanta (12)
Atlanta's close win over the Panthers and not-so-close loss to the Patriots keep the 4-1 Falcons sitting behind the 3-2 Cowboys.

8 Dallas (12)
The Cowboys have lost close games to two of the best teams in the league (the Giants and Broncos) but struggled to beat the Chiefs two weeks ago, keeping them just below the Patriots on this list.

7 New England (12)
The Patriots have a solid win against the Falcons, a close one over the Ravens, and an overtime loss to the Broncos working for them. Plus a 59-0 win gets you the nod when it comes to tiebreakers.

6 Pittsburgh (12)
The Steelers followed up back-to-back close losses with three straight wins heading into two straight games against currently undefeated teams (Minnesota and Denver).

5 NY Giants (13)
The Giants did not look good against the Saints last week, but that one game did not undo the work they did in their first five. The road ahead is not a picnic for the Giants--7 of their final 10 games are against teams that are above .500.

4 Minnesota (15)
The 6-0 Vikings have taken care of business against the 29th, 30th, and 31st ranked teams on the list. Two of their three other games easily could have been losses. That makes the Vikings the 4th best undefeated team in the league.

3 Denver (15)
And the answer to my original question--how good are the Broncos--is this: They are the 3rd best team in the NFL. The Broncos' three close wins came against the 7th, 8th, and 19th teams on this list, and they've taken care of business against the three bad teams they've played. It all adds up to an incredible turnaround by the Broncos. And with games remaining against Washington, San Diego, Kansas City (twice), and Oakland, the Broncos actually have a shot at a first round bye in the playoffs.

2 Indianapolis (15.6)
After back-to-back squeakers to start the season, the Colts have won their last three by the combined score of 96-36. They come out of the bye with 0-6 St. Louis and then play 8 of their next 9 against teams that are .500 or better.

1 New Orleans (18)
And then there are the Saints. They've played 5 games and won all 5 of them by 14 or more. That gives them a perfect record in our ratings system. And with three games remaining with 0-6 teams and only four with teams over .500, it's going to be tough to get them out of this top spot.

Week 7 Picks

New England (-14½) over Tampa Bay
Indianapolis (-13½) over ST. LOUIS
Minnesota (+5) over PITTSBURGH
KANSAS CITY (+5) over San Diego
HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco
Green Bay (-7) over CLEVELAND
OAKLAND (+7) over NY Jets
Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA
CINCINNATI (-1) over Chicago
New Orleans (-6½) over MIAMI
DALLAS (-4) over Atlanta
NY GIANTS (-7) over Arizona
Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON

Last week: 7-7

Season: 49-41

Four weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and we can now see who the contenders are and who the pretenders are, right? Not so fast. All you have to do is go back one season to see that even after four weeks of play, as Hogan's Heroes' Sergeant Schultz would say, "I know nuuu-sssing!"

Last year at this time Buffalo was 4-0, and Tampa Bay, Denver, Washington, and Dallas were 3-1. Buffalo ended the season 7-9, Tampa Bay 9-7, Denver 8-8, Washington 8-8, and Dallas 9-7. None of them made the playoffs. Meanwhile Arizona, Atlanta, San Diego, and Philadelphia were all 2-2, and Indianapolis and Miami were 1-2. All six of those teams made the playoffs. And the Cardinals--after their second of five embarr****ing East Coast trips--ended up making the Super Bowl.

An NFL record five teams are 4-0 this year--the Colts, Broncos, Giants, Vikings, and Saints. Meanwhile, five teams are 0-4 (Kansas City, Cleveland, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis), and Carolina is 0-3. But records don't tell the whole story, as evidenced by last season.

Is there really that much separation between the haves and the have nots? Close games are decided by just a play or two. Take the Broncos. Their Week 1 win came on one of the flukiest plays in the history of the NFL. Three weeks later and they are 4-0. What if they had lost that game? Would they be 0-4 instead? And how about the Titans? They lost to the Steelers in overtime in Week 1. Would they have rattled off four straight wins if they had pulled that one out instead of four straight losses?

The NFL, as we have seen time and time again, is a fickle creature. Teams finish in last one season only to finish in first the next. Teams make it all the way to the Super Bowl one year only to miss the playoffs the next.

This week two of the winless teams take on two of the undefeated teams. Those are two of the games Vegas has posted spreads of 10 or more for. And even with quarterback question marks on two of those favored teams--the Giants and Eagles--I'm having a hard time finding a reason to pick the underdogs. And yet it wouldn't surprise me if one of the underdogs pulled off an upset.

Prognosticators are not immune to the ups and downs of the NFL, either. My first two weeks picking games I was stuck at .500. Last week I went 11-3 against the spread. But you won't hear any gloating from this camp. That 11-3 record could just as easily plummet to 3-11 this week. So let's get to this week's picks...

Week 5 Picks

Cincinnati (+8½) over BALTIMORE
PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay
NY GIANTS (-14½) over Oakland
Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY
Pittsburgh (-10½) over DETROIT
CAROLINA (-3½) over Washington
BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland
Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS
Atlanta (+2½) over SAN FRANCISCO
Jacksonville (E) over SEATTLE
New England (-3) over DENVER
ARIZONA (-5½) over Houston
Indianapolis (-3½) over TENNESSEE
NY Jets (-1½) over MIAMI

Last week: 11-3

Season: 35-27

After devouring as much football as humanly possible during the NFL's glorious first weekend, one thing is clear: the NFL is the toughest sport by far to predict. I spent about 640 hours breaking down each team to put together my AFC and NFC previews, and in one week the 49ers and Broncos have each already won half as many games as I predicted they'd win all season, my top three AFC teams (Patriots, Chargers, and Colts) won by a combined 7 points, and injuries have already changed the landscape (specifically for the Bears and Eagles).

So as usual, you can't put too much stock in what you saw in Week 1. It's a long season. But let's try and piece through what we saw and improve upon the picks this week:

Carolina at Atlanta 

Jake Delhomme has 11 turnovers in his last two games. In between those two games he received a $42.5 million contract. Can the Panthers' organization take Delhomme to court for breach of contract and get that money back. This is really Jake's last chance isn't it? Another 5+ turnover game and there's no way they can trot him back out there. Which means even though all signs point to Atlanta in this game, Carolina is the choice. A road game is exactly what Delhomme needs to get back on track.
Pick: Carolina (+6)

Minnesota at Detroit 

The Lions lost. Again. (How many people are taking "whoever is playing the Lions" in this year's knockout/elimination/suicide pools?) And it probably won't get any better this week. Minnesota followed the script we expected them to follow--solid defense, lots of Adrian Peterson, and a mistake-free Favre. There's no reason that plan shouldn't work again. This week. Just how long they can stick to that script is the question.
Pick: Minnesota (-9½)

Cincinnati at Green Bay 

The Bengals crossed the 50-yard-line 5 times in the 1st half last week and scored 0 points. What killed those drives? Penalties, a botched snap on a field goal, an interception (on a tipped pass that Ochocinco gave up on), and dropped passes. Was the offense just rusty from Carson Palmer missing most of the preseason? They did have an impressive 91-yard drive to "win the game." Meanwhile the Packers won a tough one at home against the Bears but got a lot of help from Jay Cutler. I'm still not buying what the Packers are selling, and since I improbably picked the Bengals to win the AFC North, I'm going with them with the points in this one. And who knows, maybe they'll even shock everyone and win this one outright.
Pick: Cincinnati (+9)

Arizona at Jacksonville 

That was a solid all-around game by the Jaguars last week. They went toe-to-toe with the Colts on both offense and defense and were a missed 2-point conversion away from tying the game in the 4th quarter. As for Arizona, all I have to say for them is that this game is on the East Coast and starts at 1pm (West Coast teams went 8-17 in 1pm starts last season, and 3 of those wins came against the Rams, who were awful). So there's no way they're winning this game.
Pick: Jacksonville (-3)

Oakland at Kansas City 

The Raiders and Chiefs each looked better than everyone thought they would look opening week, and since they play each other, it will be yet another week before we can gauge how good either of them is. So since it's a toss-up, I'll use the same logic as for the Cardinals--1pm Eastern start for a West Coast team. Give me the Chiefs.
Pick: Kansas City (-3)

New England at NY Jets 

For all of us expecting a Patriots blowout Monday night--the Bills interrupted our regularly scheduled programming. Whether it was rust or adjusting to the new play calling, Tom Brady looked human. Until the second half when he returned to looking superhuman. How long will it take the offense to start rolling? Meanwhile, the Patriots' defense was what we expected them to be: average. After one week they rank 13th overall, 12th against the pass, and 20th against the rush. The defense allowed 17 points (Brady's pick-6 accounted for the other 7). But if they can remain "average" (or better) all season and the offense cranks it up, watch out. On the Jets' side, I have to admit--quarterback Mark Sanchez played really well. Granted, the Texans' defense played abysmally, and on a number of the 6 times Sanchez successfully passed on 3rd down for a 1st down, he hit his receiver near the line of scrimmage and the receiver ran for the 1st down. But you could see his confidence rising with each pass and he made some great throws. Most impressive was after he threw his first career interception he rebounded with a big 40-yard completion to Dustin Keller on his very next pass. This game will probably be a close one. Will Jets' head coach Rex Ryan's bulletin board material be the difference?
Pick: New England (-3½)

New Orleans at Philadelphia

The Saints went crazy on the Lions last week but the defense gave up quite a few yards to the rookie-led Lions. Meanwhile, the Eagles looked explosive on both offense and defense--but Donovan McNabb broke a rib and no one knows whether or not he'll play. It's not going to matter because the combination of the Saints facing a tougher defense, a bit of a letdown after last week, and the Eagles moving the ball against a (still) suspect Saints defense adds up to an Eagles win.
Pick: Philadelphia (+1)

Houston at Tennessee 

One thing was clear from the Titans' opening game with the Steelers: when the Titans don't blitz they don't get a solid pass rush. Expect Tennessee to change things up just a bit after Big Ben picked them apart last week. Plus they've got an extra three days to prepare for this one. The Titans' awful special teams is going to cost them a game or two this season, but not this one. Why? As evidenced on Sunday, the Texans are awful.
Pick: Tennessee (-6½)

St. Louis at Washington 

I heard someone say during the week that a certain team would win this weekend since they "needed the win more" because that team was 0-1 and the team they are playing is 1-0. Well, I've got news for you--since 2001, 0-1 teams are 25-37 against 1-0 teams in Week 2. And in the last two years it's even more pronounced--the 0-1 teams are just 6-20. There are 6 such match-ups this weekend. And if you think all of the 0-1 teams will be hungrier and will play better, then you didn't watch the Rams play last week. "Playing better" isn't even on their agenda. "Showing just a small sign of life" is.
Pick: Washington (-9½)

Seattle at San Francisco

If I believe what I wrote in my NFC preview, then the 49ers are only going to win 1 more game the rest of the season. And I'm guessing this won't be it. Matt Hasselbeck and the Seahawks started out slowly (just like the rest of the quarterbacks returning from injury) but then rolled over the Rams. They'll take the next step toward their return to the top of the NFC West in this one.
Pick: Seattle (+1½)

Tampa Bay at Buffalo 

How will the Bills respond to their epic collapse against the Patriots last Monday night? If history is any indication, they might respond pretty well. Consider that two years ago the Bills lost in similar fashion on Monday Night Football to the Cowboys (by the exact same 25-24 score). Following their bye week they beat the Ravens 19-14. And last season the Chargers lost the "Ed Hochuli game" to the Broncos and responded by trouncing the Jets 48-29. So perhaps this edition of the Bills will respond similarly. Especially since other than Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay looked dreadful last week.
Pick: Buffalo (-5)

Pittsburgh at Chicago

The Steelers lost their best defensive player and struggled on offense last week. The Bears lost their best defensive player and struggled on offense last week. Do not adjust your set if this game looks eerily similar to Steelers 13, Titans 10 or Packers 18, Bears 15 from a week ago. And apparently the Madden video game cover curse might be real (Troy Polamalu was featured on the cover this season along with Larry Fitzgerald).
Pick: Chicago (+3)

Cleveland at Denver 

The Broncos fumbled (but recovered) the opening kickoff. Their final play of the game was a fluke touchdown pass with 11 seconds remaining. In between was 59 minutes of pure torture. And if the Bengals hadn't shot themselves in the foot all game it wouldn't have even been close. Meanwhile Cleveland looked as bad as we expected them to look against the Vikings. So what happens in this game? I have no idea. But any time the Red Zone Channel switches me to this game I'm changing the channel.
Pick: Denver (-3)

Baltimore at San Diego 

The Ravens outgained the Chiefs 501 yards to 188, ran 85 plays to the Chiefs' 44, and had the ball for almost 40 of the game's 60 minutes. And yet with 5:21 remaining in the game the score was tied. This does not bode well for the Ravens. Meanwhile the Chargers looked completely out of sync against the Raiders. Perhaps they were reading their own press clippings and the hype went to their heads. That's not likely to happen two weeks in a row.
Pick: San Diego (-3)

NY Giants at Dallas 

The Giants won a hard fought battle with the Redskins last week while the Cowboys trounced the Bucs. Dallas opens its new stadium in front of what will be a large, loud crowd. So far the season's first four night games have been decided by 3, 3, 1, and 4 points. The winner of this one probably wins by 3 or less, so since the spread is 3, I'm going with the underdog.
Pick: NY Giants (+3)
Bonus Pick: Over/under on punts hitting the scoreboard: 1½ (Under)

Indianapolis at Miami

Last week the Colts were impressive on defense but had just enough to win on offense. I know the stats were gaudy again, but Peyton Manning didn't look like Peyton Manning and the offense did not look like the video game-style Colts we're used to. Plus they had 2 chances to put the game away on offense--and couldn't do it (they failed on 3rd-and-8 and 4th-and-2 on their final 2 drives). They needed the defense to take care of business. Meanwhile the Dolphins look like the Dolphins again--the 2007 Dolphins (1-15) not the 2008 Dolphins (11-5). This night game will put an end to the streak of night games decided by 4 or less.
Pick: Indianapolis (-3)

Last week: 7-9

I posted my NFC Preview on Monday. With the season kicking off tonight with last year's Super Bowl champion vs. the team with the best regular season record--both AFC teams--let's take a look at the AFC. As we do, there are a few things we need to keep in mind when predicting regular season records:

* No team has ever played in a Super Bowl that was held at their home stadium. As a matter of fact, the last team to even make the playoffs in a year the Super Bowl was held at their home stadium was the 2000 Tampa Buccaneers. So Miami is unlikely to even make the playoffs this year (among other reasons).

* Since 1997, 34 teams won 5 or more games than they won the year before. 27 of these teams won fewer games the next season, with only 2 winning more. AFC teams you can expect to have a worse record this year as opposed to last year are (win improvement and last year's record in parentheses): NY Jets (+5, 9-7), Baltimore (+6, 11-5), and Miami (+10, 11-5). 

* Only 1 out of the last 16 teams with a first round playoff bye earned a first round playoff bye the next season (the 2006 Bears).

* 3 of the 4 teams with the first round playoff byes the year before missed the playoffs entirely in each of the last two seasons. (Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Carolina, and the New York Giants all had the first round byes last year.)

* Since 2002, at least 5 new teams have made the playoffs each season, and no fewer than 2 new teams have made it from each conference.

* The last two times only 2 new teams made the playoffs in one conference (as happened in the AFC last season), at least 4 new teams made it the next year.

* Since 2003, at least one team has gone from last place to first place in their division (and from 2003-2006 two teams did it each season).

Let's take it division by division, beginning with the division I expect to have the #1 seed in the playoffs--the AFC East.

AFC East

New England

As of last Saturday the Patriots were the favorites for the #1 seed in the AFC and the Super Bowl. Then they traded Richard Seymour to the Raiders in a move that set them up with a #1 draft pick two years from now. With Tom Brady back from injury, more weapons on offense than two years ago and a defense that looked to be better than last year's, is Bill Belichick just trying to raise the level of difficulty? Is he taking a page out of his own playbook? After all, he released Lawyer Malloy just before the 2003 season--and the team went on to win the Super Bowl that season. 16-0 doesn't guarantee a Super Bowl victory as we all found out. With the offense this team has, 13 wins sounds about right. But the game Belichick and the Patriots really want to win is Super Bowl XLIV.
Predicted record: 13-3, #1 seed
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Patriots enter their Week 10 showdown with the Colts at 8-0.

Miami

Soft schedule, innovative offense, solid defense, and a career year from quarterback Chad Pennington. That formula equaled 11 wins and a shocking turnaround from 1-15 to division champs for the Miami Dolphins. What can we expect for a follow-up? Fourteen teams since 1978 have won 7+ more games than they did the year before and finished with 10+ wins in all. All 14 teams won 3+ fewer games the next season. This includes the 2000 Colts (from 13-3 to 10-6) and the 2005 Steelers (from 15-1 to 11-5). Can the Dolphins buck this trend? Unlikely. But an 8-8 season would be an impressive follow-up to last season.
Predicted record: 8-8
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Wildcat offense is almost useless by mid-season as other teams figure out a way to stop it.

Buffalo

The no huddle offense? Terrell Owens? The offensive coordinator fired one week before the season starts? Starting left tackle Langston Walker cut 2 days after final cutdown day? What on earth is in the water in Buffalo?
Predicted record: 5-11
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Bills do something else crazy before their first game arrives Monday night.

New York Jets

Rex Ryan is phenomenal. I love his press conferences. I love reading what he said next. It's great. As a head coach? I have no idea. As entertainment? He's phenomenal. But the Jets will not be the next team with a new coach and a new quarterback to take the league by storm.
Predicted record: 5-11
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Jets open the season 0-5 (@Hou, NE, Ten, @NO, and @Mia).

AFC West

San Diego

The Chargers have a healthy Shawne Merriman (as long as his legal troubles keep him on the field), a healthy LaDanian Tomlinson, Philip Rivers getting better every year, and six automatic wins in their dreadful division. I can't imagine a scenario in which the Chargers don't win the division and land a first round bye in the playoffs.
Predicted record: 12-4, #2 seed
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Chargers win 5 of their division games by 10 or more points (with 1 close game).

Kansas City

The Chiefs were going to be the trendy pick for the surprise team of the year. Then they traded away future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez (who would have been a huge help in this offense), quarterback Matt Cassel got hurt, and the Chiefs fired offensive coordinator Chan Gailey one week before the season was to start. Now they're the trendy pick to have a bad season.
Predicted record: 5-11
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Chiefs open the season 2-7--with both wins coming against the Raiders.

Denver

What new head coach Josh McDaniels did in Denver was very Bill Belichick-like. Belichick from his Cleveland days that is. When Belichick arrived in Cleveland he basically told the franchise's star quarterback to take a hike and began to rebuild the team. The difference, of course, was that the Cleveland quarterback was an aging star, not a young star. Compounding the problems in Denver, McDaniels has lost his best receiver (Brandon Marshall) to coach-induced insanity, has the oldest secondary in the league, and has one of the oldest defenses in the league. And instead of focusing on fixing the defense--the clear problem on the team last year--the Broncos improbably drafted a running back with their first pick and then traded away next year's number one to take a cornerback in the second round. Take last year's team, add a rookie running back and cornerback, swap Kyle Orton for Jay Cutler, and subtract Brandon Marshall, and what do you get? A very long season for the Broncos.
Predicted record: 4-12
Wouldn't surprise me if: Denver loses 8 in a row in the middle of the season (Dal, NE, @SD, @Bal, Pit, @Was, SD, NYG). It also wouldn't surprise me if they lose more than 8 in a row.

Oakland

Do I even have to give the gory details? OK, here's two: The head coach got into a fist fight with one of his assistants (sending him to the hospital) and then the walking corpse that is Al Davis traded the team's 2011 #1 draft pick to the Patriots for a defensive player who will be a free agent at the end of this season (if he ever reports).
Predicted record: 2-14
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Raiders ruin your Thanksgiving dinner (they play Dallas that afternoon).

AFC South

Indianapolis

The Colts set an NFL record last year by winning 12+ games for five straight seasons. They've got essentially the same team they had last year, but now they have a completely new coaching staff. How they respond to this change will determine their success. Will they improve and dominate the way Tony Dungy's Tampa Bay team did under Jon Gruden in 2002? Or will they regress? The schedule is a plus for the Colts as they get to face the NFC West and Houston twice, and their seemingly annual grudge match with the Patriots is a home game. Their lone cold weather game is at Buffalo in Week 17--and by then they might have the division wrapped up. The only way the Colts miss the playoffs is if the players and coaches are not only on different pages, they're reading different books. Or if Peyton Manning gets hurt. Since each of those is unlikely (much of the "new" coaching staff was part of the old coaching staff and Peyton Manning has not missed a game in his career), it looks to be another 12+ win season for the Colts.
Predicted record: 12-4, #3 seed
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Colts enter their Week 10 showdown with the Patriots at 8-0.

Jacksonville

The 2008 Jaguars went 5-11 but some of their games did not have the feel of a 5-11 club. A 7-point loss at Tennessee, a 2-point win at Indianapolis, and a 5-point loss to eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh highlighted their early season resume. Of course after their bye they lost to Cleveland and Cincinnati on consecutive weeks, and only a date with the eventual 0-16 Lions prevented a 7-game losing streak. Head coach Jack Del Rio's job could be on the line this season and with the very good chance that the Jaguars' home games will be blacked out, they've got real "us against the world" potential. Add in the mountain of injuries the team suffered last season and we could be looking at a playoff team.
Predicted record: 11-5, Wild Card
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Jaguars win both games against the Colts--but still lose the division to Indianapolis.

Tennessee

Did any player have a greater impact on the 2008 regular season than Albert Haynesworth did? His stats might not show it (8½ sacks) but check out his teammates' stats: Jacob Ford 7 sacks, Jason Jones 5 sacks, Dave Ball 4½ sacks, and Tony Brown 4 sacks. (Heck, even 32-year-old Jevon Kearse had 3½ sacks.) And why did all of these people you've never heard of get to the quarterback last season? Albert Haynesworth--who was getting double- and triple-teamed at times and was in a contract year. We'll see how well they do this season without Haynesworth.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: Patrick Ramsey--and not Kerry Collins or Vince Young--is playing quarterback before the year is over.

Houston

I'm tired of waiting for the Texans to get good. And I'm tired of predicting the Texans will be good. I've been in their corner ever since their very first game in 2002, when they improbably knocked off the Dallas Cowboys. Blaming last season's poor start on the hurricane that disrupted their schedule is a cop out. Sure they opened @Pit, bye (due to the hurricane), @Ten, @Jax, Ind--which equaled an 0-4 start. Swap in the scheduled home date against Baltimore for the bye and you know what the Texans would have had? An 0-5 start. This team ended up losing to Oakland in Week 16, which interrupted what would have been a 6-game winning streak to end the season. This of course made the Texans the sexy pick to make the leap this year. But you'll notice that there are no rules at the top of this post about teams who end the previous season on a hot streak. You know why? End of the year winning streaks do not create momentum for the next season. They just don't, no matter what anyone tells you. The Texans are, were, and for the foreseeable future will be a mediocre team.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Texans start the season 4-0, get everyone excited about their season, and then the wheels come off. It wouldn't surprise me if they ended the season with a 9-game losing streak.

AFC North

Cincinnati

Cincinnati? The Bungles? Champions of the tough AFC North? That is not a misprint, my friends. Every year there's at least one team that makes a remarkable turnaround that no one saw coming. This year it will be Cincinnati. Everything seems to be stacked against the Bengals heading into this season: the loss of T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Carson Palmer's inability to stay healthy, a holdout by 1st round draft pick Andre Smith (who then got hurt), horrible management, Ochocinco's Twittering (which I am now addicted to, by the way--the official Sports in a Can Twitter page is following Ochocinco's page), etc., etc. Not to mention the Bengals' penchant for signing past and future criminals. Finally, add in the fact that this offseason the Bengals were the subjects of HBO's Hard Knocks--which never works out well for the team involved. But if--and this is a big if--everything goes right for Cincinnati (Palmer stays healthy, Ochocinco has a monster season, Cedric Benson continues to be on the upswing, and the defense is even better than last year), they have an outside chance of winning the division. Which is good enough for me. Because I don't trust any other potential surprise team in the AFC.
Predicted record: 10-6, #4 seed
Wouldn't surprise me if: Ochocinco scores a touchdown and updates his Twitter page in the end zone.

Pittsburgh

If I believe what I wrote at the top (that only 2 AFC playoff teams from last season will return to the playoffs this season), and I'm convinced that both Indianapolis and San Diego are locks to return, then Pittsburgh cannot make the playoffs. But after breaking down every single team one-by-one, I cannot find a team to replace the Steelers. So I'm putting the Steelers in. The defense will take a minor step backward and Roethlisberger will continue to struggle at all points during the game except for the 4th quarter. But somehow the Steelers will make it into the postseason tournament again.
Predicted record: 10-6, Wild Card
Wouldn't surprise me if: Roethlisberger throws more interceptions than touchdowns this season (he threw 13 INTS vs. 17 TDs last year).

Baltimore

The last time the Ravens strung together back-to-back 10-win seasons was in 2000 and 2001, which was also the last time their defense repeated a top 5 performance in back-to-back years. Since that time, the effort it took to be a top-caliber defensive club in one season was too much for the succeeding year. Granted, the Ravens' offense has not helped matters over the years. But they haven't quite solved that problem. As impressive as Joe Flaaco was last season, it was a low-risk offense he was in charge of. It stands to reason that the offensive playbook will be a little thicker this season. And the schedule could be tough for Baltimore this year--their first three road trips are to San Diego, New England, and Minnesota. And my favorite nugget of all: according to Sports Illustrated, the Ravens petitioned the league to not schedule a night game in Pittsburgh between the Ravens and Steelers, because they've lost 3 in a row at night in Pittsburgh. Not exactly brimming with confidence, are they? Here's hoping NBC "flexs" their Week 16 match-up to Sunday night.
Predicted record: 7-9
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Ravens lose all 3 of their scheduled night games this season--at Cleveland and Green Bay, and at home against the Steelers.

Cleveland  

Shhh! Don't tell anyone who's starting at quarterback. New head coach Eric Mangini is trying to get every advantage he can by keeping it a secret. It's not as if he's choosing between Joe Montana and Steve Young. His options are Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson. I don't think the Vikings' defense--or anyone else for that matter--really cares who starts. Can you imagine Jared Allen screaming, "Brady Quinn! Oh no! We prepared for Derek Anderson!"? Neither can I. Mangini had instant success his first season with the Jets but I don't see it happening in Cleveland. Things are bad in Cleveland. I mean, he's keeping his starting quarterback a secret because he thinks it will give him an advantage. Things are really bad in Cleveland.
Predicted record: 3-13
Wouldn't surprise me if: Cleveland Browns owner Randy Lerner announces that he's keeping the identity of his head coach a secret leading up to the team's Week 13 game against San Diego. You know, to try and get a competitive advantage.

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Week 1 Picks

PITTSBURGH (-6½) over Tennessee
Dallas (-6) over TAMPA BAY
NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Detroit
ATLANTA (-4) over Miami
HOUSTON (-4½) over NY Jets
CINCINNATI (-4) over Denver
Philadelphia (-2½) over CAROLINA
Jacksonville (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS
Minnesota (-4) over CLEVELAND
Kansas City (+13) over BALTIMORE
Washington (+6½) over NY GIANTS
St. Louis (+8) over SEATTLE
ARIZONA (-6½) over San Francisco
Chicago (+3½) over GREEN BAY
NEW ENGLAND (-10½) over Buffalo
SAN DIEGO (-9) over Oakland

Last season: 119-129-8