Who is going to win Super Bowl XLIII? I've gone back and forth about 100 times in the last two weeks. Clearly it will be the Steelers in a blowout. No, wait, the Cardinals can make a game of it and keep it close. Or maybe even win. No, wait, the Steelers in a runaway. And so on it goes.

And it's not just me. The line opened at 7 and hasn't budged, which means there's even action on both sides. The betting public is split. And the sports experts appear to be split as well.

The problem with predicting the Super Bowl in recent years is that the game is never what you expect it to be anymore. We all know what happened last year (and let's move on without even talking about it). The year before the Colts were favored by 7 and won a non-Colts-like defensive affair 29-17. Steelers by 4-they win by 11. Patriots by 7 twice-they win by 3 both times.

In the last seven Super Bowls, we've had just one team win by more than 12 points. In the previous 18 Super Bowls, the winning team won by more than 12 points 13 times. We're living in the age of parity. It's tough to dominate in the Super Bowl today.

So what are we to make of all of this? Let's look at it this way: The Steelers are clearly the better team. They had the #1 defense in the NFL during the regular season and played the toughest schedule, losing only to Tennessee in their last 9 games. If they play this game 10 times, the Steelers probably win 8 or 9 times. They should win this game without a problem, right?

But that's too easy, right? I mean we've just had the craziest NFL season in memory. It can't end with the better team dominating a weaker foe, right?

So let's figure out how the Cardinals can win, and decide at the end if it's possible.

Kurt Warner and the offensive line come through

So far in three playoff games, Warner has thrown just two interceptions, been sacked three times, and has not fumbled. The biggest criticism Warner has faced throughout his career is that he fumbles too much and throws too many interceptions in big spots. But so far in these playoffs, Warner has kept the mistakes to a minimum and the offensive line has given him the opportunity to make big plays. If the offensive line does its job against the Steelers, Warner has the opportunity to have a solid day. Keep in mind that Warner just does not get flustered late in big playoff situations. Witness his methodical 4th quarter drive against the Tampa Bay defense in the '99 NFC Championship Game, his three 4th quarter drives against the Saints in the '00 playoffs, his two 4th quarter drives against the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXVI, and the winning 14-play, 72-yard touchdown drive against Philadelphia in this year's NFC Championship Game. His team trailed in all of those situations, so potentially being down in the Super Bowl is not going to fluster Kurt Warner.

Larry Fitzgerald has another big game

Are we asking too much of Fitzgerald at this point? I mean his playoff numbers (23 catches, 419 yards, 5 TDs) are staggering. Add them to his regular season numbers and he has 119 catches, 1,850 yards, and 17 TDs. No one can cover him one-on-one, and even when he's double-teamed, Warner trusts him enough to make the catches. If he plays like he has the last three games, Arizona will be able to put points on the board, even against the toughest defense in the league.

Hines Ward is not 100%

Without Hines Ward, who does Roethlisberger throw the ball to? While the Cardinals boast three 1,000-yard receivers, Ward was the only Steeler to crack 1,000 yards receiving this year. After Ward got hurt against the Ravens, Roethlisberger hit Santonio Holmes for a 65-yard touchdown pass-but the Steelers' offense scored just 3 more points. Add to this the fact that the Steelers had the 23rd-best rushing attack in the league, and perhaps the Cardinals have a chance to keep the game close.

Arizona wins the turnover battle

After a regular season in which Arizona turned the ball over as many times as they were the beneficiaries of turnovers, they are +9 in the playoffs. Meanwhile Pittsburgh has turned the ball over just once in two playoff games. But against Tennessee in Week 16, the Steelers turned it over four times en route to a 31-14 loss. If the Cardinals can keep working the turnover magic, that would go a long way toward pulling off the upset.

Ken Whisenhunt scares the Steelers into changing things up

Even if Whisenhunt doesn't know the Steelers' schemes and tendencies-I mean, he hasn't been there for two years now-the fact that Pittsburgh's coaches might think Whisenhunt knows them will affect their game-planning. And when you don't do what you normally do, that's when you can get into trouble, especially in the Super Bowl.

Arizona owns the 3rd quarter

The Cardinals averaged 9 points per game in the 3rd quarter during the regular season-the only quarter in which they outscored their opponents. Meanwhile, in 18 games, the Steelers allowed just 29 points in the 3rd quarter-that's 1.6 points per game! No matter what happens in the first half, the 3rd quarter will be pivotal to the Cardinals' chances of winning. They need to come out of halftime and establish control of the game.

Will all of the above happen? I don't think so. But my picks have been abysmal lately, so what do I know? My head says Steelers in a runaway. But let's say the Arizona offensive line has a great day, Warner plays the way he has the last three games, Fitzgerald once again is superhuman, Hines Ward's injury hinders the Pittsburgh offense, the Cardinals once again win the turnover battle, Whisenhunt causes the Steelers to rethink their game plan, and the Cardinals come out of halftime strong. Then this one will be close, right to the final gun.

Let's say Cardinals 27, Steelers 22, with Arizona stopping Santonio Holmes just shy of the goal line on the final play of the game. And unlike Week 15 against the Ravens, this time the referees don't give them the touchdown via replay.