Since the NFL has 6 teams on a bye for an unprecedented third straight week, I decided I'd take a bye as well...
Week 9 NFL Picks
ATLANTA (-10) over Washington Green Bay (-9½) over TAMPA BAY NEW ENGLAND (-10½) over Miami Kansas City (+6½) over JACKSONVILLE INDIANAPOLIS (-9) over Houston CINCINNATI (+3) over Baltimore Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO Detroit (+10) over SEATTLE NEW ORLEANS (-13) over Carolina SAN FRANCISCO (-4½) over Tennessee San Diego (+4½) over NY GIANTS PHILADELPHIA (-3) over Dallas Pittsburgh (-3) over DENVER
In case you haven't heard, Brett Favre returns to Green Bay to face his former team this Sunday. He joins a long list of former players heading to the visitors' locker room at a stadium they once called home, but a short list of players who achieved icon status only to return dressed in enemy clothing.
Brett Favre's name was synonymous with the Green Bay Packers for 16 years. You couldn't help but think of one without the other during that time. He is a guaranteed first ballot Hall of Famer, and one of the most talked-about players of his era.
I came up with seven other examples on a par with Brett Favre--legendary local heroes returning to face their former teams. Some were cheered, some were booed. Some received both. But every return was anxiously awaited by the (formerly) home fans.
Here's a chronological rundown of the legends' returns:
Babe Ruth vs. the Boston Red Sox April 19, 1920
To say that Babe Ruth was legendary is to state the obvious. But for the Red Sox through the end of the 1917 season, Ruth was mostly known for his pitching. In 1916 he led the league in ERA (1.75) and shutouts (9), and in 1917 he led the league with 35 complete games as he went 24-13 with a 2.01 ERA (a different game back then to be sure). The Red Sox won the 1915 and 1916 World Series, with Ruth getting just 6 at bats in the two series. But in 1918, the Red Sox used Ruth in the outfield for the first time. He would pitch in only 20 games in 1918 and 17 in 1919, and began to make his mark as a batter, leading the league with a then-record 11 home runs in 1918, and crushing 29 in 1919 (17 more than anyone else in baseball). But money troubles on the part of the Red Sox owner and the salary demands of the new star led to his sale to the New York Yankees in December 1919.
The Yankees played the Red Sox in a day-afternoon doubleheader on the Massachusetts state holiday (Patriots' Day) in 1920 and Babe Ruth made his first appearance in Boston in pinstripes. According to the book Red Sox Century, 10,000 fans cheered Ruth's return in game 1. Ruth went 2-for-4 but did not homer and the Red Sox won 6-0. 28,000 more fans piled into Fenway Park for game 2, and Ruth went just 1-for-4 (again without a home run) and the Red Sox won 8-3. Ruth received a huge ovation in each game before each at bat, but more cheers were heard for the Red Sox and their hot start against the Yankees.
Pete Rose vs. the Cincinnati Reds June 1, 1979
Long before Pete Rose became known for the gambling scandal that led to his banishment from the game, he was known as "Charlie Hustle" and was a hitting machine for the Cincinnati Reds. Rose won three batting titles from 1963-1978, led the league in hits six times, won the Rookie of the Year Award in 1963 and the MVP in 1973. He and the "Big Red Machine" won back-to-back World Series titles in 1975 and 1976. In 1978 Rose had a 44-game hitting streak, the second-longest in Major League history, and the first real challenge to Joe DiMaggio's record 56-game streak set in 1941. His success made him a national superstar, and in the winter of 1978 Rose cashed in as a free agent, signing with the Philadelphia Phillies for a 4-year $3.2-million contract, which at the time made him the highest-paid player in team sports.
48,968 fans (the 5th-largest crowd of the season) packed Riverfront Stadium on the night of Rose's return. They cheered Rose prior to the game as he accepted the Reds' Most Valuable Player Award for 1978‚ an award voted on by the Cincinnati chapter of the Baseball Writers' Association of America. And prior to Rose's first at bat, the fans gave him a standing ovation. Rose went 0-for-4 as his Phillies lost to Cincinnati 4-2.
Reggie Jackson vs. the New York Yankees April 27, 1982
Reggie Jackson was already a star before he arrived in the Bronx, winning two home run crowns and the 1973 American League MVP award, and playing on an Oakland A's team that won three straight World Series titles from 1972 through 1974. But he didn't become "Mr. October" until he signed with the Yankees. Throughout five sometimes tumultuous sometimes victorious seasons, Jackson hit 8 home runs in 15 World Series games, and the Yankees won back-to-back titles in 1977-78. His well-documented battles with owner George Steinbrenner led to his joining the California Angels in 1982 as a free agent.
Jackson started the season in a terrible slump but went 2-for-3 in his return to Yankee Stadium. He singled to lead off the 5th inning and scored the Angels' go-ahead run. He led off the top of the 7th inning against perennial All-Star Ron Guidry, and with the fans chanting the familiar "Reg-GIE!" "Reg-GIE!", he hit a home run. The fans then chanted "Steinbrenner sucks!", letting the owner know whose side they were on. The game ended after 7 innings due to rain.
Wayne Gretzky vs. the Edmonton Oilers October 19, 1988
As captured so well in ESPN's recent 30 for 30 documentary (King's Ransom), Wayne Gretzky was a Canadian national treasure. He had won four Stanley Cups in five years and eight MVP awards during his 10 years as a member of the Edmonton Oilers. He owned or shared 49 NHL records by the end of the 1987-88 season. But negotiations for a new contract for Gretzky broke down and Oilers owner Peter Pocklington traded the "Great One" to the Los Angeles Kings. Gretzky held a tearful press conference as he headed off to Los Angeles, and Pocklington had his effigy burned in public for trading Gretzky.
Gretzky returned to Edmonton with the Kings and received a four-minute standing ovation from the 17,503 fans (the largest crowd at the time to see an Oilers' game). The game was nationally televised in Canada, and Gretzky had two assists but did not score a goal in an 8-6 loss to the Oilers.
Patrick Roy vs. the Montreal Canadians March 5, 1997
In 11 seasons with the Montreal Canadians, goaltender Patrick Roy won two Stanley Cups and three Vezina Trophies (top goalie in the NHL). He allowed the fewest goals against four times. At the start of the 1995-96 season, Roy was 12-8-1 with a 2.59 goals against average (which was better than his average in two of his previous three seasons). But Roy had a strained relationship with head coach Mario Tremblay, who had taken over for the fired Jacques Demers just five games into the season. On December 2, 1995, in a home game against the Detriot Red Wings, Roy allowed 5 goals in the 1st period. The crowd turned on Roy, and when Tremblay finally removed him from the game halfway through the 2nd period, Roy had allowed a career-high 9 goals. Roy--accusing Tremblay of attempting to embarrass him--told team president Ronald Corey that he would not play another game for the Canadians. Four days later he was traded to the Colorado Avalanche, with whom Roy won the Stanley Cup later that season.
Roy's return to Montreal came late in the next season, with the Avalanche cruising toward another playoff appearance while the Canadians were fighting for the 8th and final playoff spot. Roy received a standing ovation as he skated out to the ice, but was alternately cheered and booed throughout the game. But Montreal goalie Jocelyn Thibault, who was part of the trade for Roy, felt the brunt of the Montreal fans' displeasure, as they booed him after each of the six goals he allowed. And in an ironic twist, he was pulled by Tremblay in the 2nd period. Roy finished with 30 saves in the 7-3 Colorado win.
Roger Clemens vs. the Boston Red Sox July 12, 1997
Long before the steroid accusations and the bat-throwing incident and his days as a Yankee and an Astro, Roger Clemens was the star of the Boston Red Sox. Clemens struck out 20 batters in a game twice (once in 1986 and once in 1996), won three Cy Young Awards, one MVP, and led the Red Sox to the playoffs four times. But by the time 1996 rolled around, many in Boston--including general manager Dan Duquette--felt Clemens was in the "twilight of his career." After a lackluster 10-13 season in 1996 (in which he had that second 20-strikeout game and led the league in strikeouts), Duquette and the Red Sox decided to let Clemens walk via free agency.
Clemens signed with the Toronto Blue Jays and looked like a different pitcher on opening day. He lost weight, put on muscle, and turned his career around. He entered his first showdown with the Red Sox 13-3 with a 1.69 ERA, 4 complete games, and 140 strikeouts in 138 innings pitched. Clemens received a mix of cheers and boos to start the game, and was universally booed when he hit former teammate Mo Vaughn with a pitch in the 1st inning. But after surviving early wildness, Clemens settled in and won the crowd over as the game progressed. He pitched 8 innings, allowing just 4 hits and striking out 16 in the Blue Jays' 3-1 win. After he struck out the side in the 8th inning, Clemens walked off the field to a standing ovation and glared up at GM Dan Duquette's skybox.
Michael Jordan vs. the Chicago Bulls January 19, 2002
Michael Jordan retired from the NBA in 1998 after winning his sixth title with the Chicago Bulls and was universally hailed as the greatest player in NBA history. In 2000 he became part owner and President of Basketball Operations for the Washington Wizards, and in 2001 he returned to the court as a player for the Wizards.
He came into his first game as a visitor in Chicago averaging 17 points a game, but was just 7 games removed from having scored 51 and 45 points in back-to-back games. The Chicago crowd gave Jordan a three-minute standing ovation, bringing the legend to tears. He had 16 points but had a horrible game, missing 14 shots and turning the ball over a career-high nine times. But the Bulls (8-30 coming into the game) were worse, shooting just 25% from the field and Jordan's Wizards won 77-69.
Brett Favre vs. the Green Bay Packers November 1, 2009
Brett Favre joins the list on Sunday. The next chapter is about to be written...
NFL Week 8 Picks
BUFFALO (+3½) over Houston NY JETS (-3½) over Miami INDIANAPOLIS (-12½) over San Francisco DETROIT (-4) over St. Louis Seattle (+9½) over DALLAS CHICAGO (-13½) over Cleveland Denver (+3½) over BALTIMORE PHILADELPHIA (E) over NY Giants SAN DIEGO (-16½) over Oakland Jacksonville (+3) over TENNESSEE ARIZONA (-10) over Carolina Minnesota (+3) over GREEN BAY NEW ORLEANS (-10) over Atlanta
With the first set of BCS rankings released this week and more NFL Power Polls than you can shake a remote at available on the Internet, Sports in a Can has decided to get into the action. Welcome to the inaugural Sports in a Can NFL Rankings.
First, let's explain how the list came to be. I was trying to decide how good the Broncos are. They are 6-0 but the image of their opening week win--which only came to be because of one of the flukiest plays in NFL history--still gnaws at me every time I consider how good they are. That game clearly could have gone either way if you think about it. And really any NFL game decided by 8 points or less is one play away from going the other way.
That led to my realization that every team really has three sets of win totals: 1. their actual number of wins; 2. the number of games they would have won if they won every close game; and 3. the number of games they would have won if they lost every close game. I define close games as any game decided by 8 points or less.
And that's it. That's the formula. Put even more simply:
a win by 9+ points is worth 3 points a win by 1-8 points is worth 2 points a loss by 1-8 points is worth 1 point a loss by 9+ points is worth 0 points
I kept it simple by using the above method, even though a team who scored a late touchdown to cut the lead to under 8 really skews the formula. But I wanted something that could be figured out quickly for any team in this or any season.
To test the formula, I looked at last season's teams. At the end of the regular season, the Tennessee Titans would have had the #1 ranking with a rating of 36. They won 13 games, had 1 close loss, and 4 close wins (13 wins + 14 potential wins + 9 potential wins, or (9*3) + (4*2) + (1*1) = 36). They were upset in the playoffs by the Baltimore Ravens--who won 11 games but would have had a rating of 35, just one behind Tennessee. Arizona's rating was 27, and the teams they beat on the road to the Super Bowl had ratings of 29 (Atlanta), 32 (Carolina), and 31 (Philadelphia). Maybe those playoff results weren't so crazy after all.
And if you want some historical perspective, the best regular season rating I've seen is 44, accomplished by the 2007 Patriots (who went on to lose the Super Bowl to a team with an improbably low rating of 26). The 1985 Bears finished the regular season with a 43 (their "close games" were defined as games decided by 7 or less since the two-point conversion was not in effect back then). And the number teams would like to avoid is 5. That would be the rating the Lions achieved last season thanks to their 5 close losses and 0 wins.
Since we are through 6 weeks a perfect rating would be 18 (six wins by 9 or more). For any team that has already had their bye, I have taken their per game average and multiplied by 6.
Any ties were broken by looking in depth at each team's slate of games to date. Other than that, the numbers speak for themselves.
Without further ado, here is the first ever Sports in a Can NFL Rankings (the number in parentheses is the team's rating according to the above formula):
32 Tampa Bay (2) The winless Buccaneers are the worst team in the league right now. They barely get the nod over the Rams by virtue of their 7-point loss last week to Carolina. Other than that they have one 3-point loss and 4 losses of 9 or more. But it was this close between these two teams.
31 St. Louis (2) Their overtime loss to the Jags last week just barely keeps the Rams out of the cellar.
30 Detroit (3) Another toss-up between teams with the same rating, but the Lions' lone close loss was an 8-point loss to the Steelers that no one really thought they had a chance of winning, right?
29 Cleveland (3) The Browns could have won their overtime game against the Bengals, which keeps them a spot above the Lions.
28 Tennessee (3) The winless Titans ahead of two teams with 1 win each even after their 59-0 loss to New England? Only because the Titans have played one more close game than the Lions and Rams have. Sure, Tennessee lost all three of their close games but they were one play away in each game. Of course, if they keep playing like they did against the Patriots last week they could find themselves at the bottom of this list soon enough.
27 Kansas City (4) All hail the Chiefs, who finally posted a win after coming close in overtime against the Cowboys and losing by 3 to the Raiders in Week 2.
26 Oakland (5) Speaking of the Raiders, their win over Philadelphia last week slots them in at #26--still the worst of all the teams with 2 or more wins.
25 Carolina (6) After an 0-3 start the Panthers have won back-to-back games, but both by 7 or less. Meanwhile quarterback Jake Delhomme has thrown 10 interceptions in 5 games.
24 Seattle (7) The Most Jekyl and Hyde team in the league, the Seahawks have won 2 games by a combined score of 69-0 but have lost 3 games by a combined score of 84-30. They sit behind Buffalo until we can figure out which team is going to show up each week. But keep this in mind: The Cardinals lost 4 games by 9 or more last season--more than any other playoff team--and ended up in the Super Bowl. But 3 losses by that much this early in the season is a bad sign for Seattle.
23 Buffalo (7) The Bills should have beaten the Patriots Week 1 but since then it's been a roller coaster ride, including their bizarre win over the Jets last week. They've allowed 961 rushing yards just in the last 4 games. If they continue giving up yards on the ground at that pace it's going to be a long season.
22 Miami (7.2) The Wildcat offense is about as erratic as the Dolphins' entire team. They almost beat the Colts, then struggled against the Chargers. They blew out the Bills then barely got by the Jets. How this team fares in it's next three games--against the Saints, Jets, and Patriots--could determine how the rest of the season will go.
21 San Diego (7.2) The Chargers are ahead of the Dolphins simply because they won their head-to-head match-up, but things are not good in San Diego. They can't run the ball and they can't stop anyone. There are going to be quite a few shoot-outs in the Chargers' future.
20 Jacksonville (8) The Jaguars lost to Seattle by 41 and barely beat the lowly Rams in overtime last week. And yet there are 12 worse teams than them in the NFL.
19 Washington (8) Washington is the only team on the board who, with a play per game going the right way, could be either undefeated or winless. Every Redskins game has been decided by 8 points or less. This can't possibly continue, can it?
18 Cincinnati (9) Why are the 4-2 Bengals sitting behind 9 teams with 3 wins? They are the only team in the top 24 without a defining win (a win by 9 or more) and their 11-point loss to the Texans last week goes in the "unwinnable game" category. Five of the Bengals' six games have been decided by 7 points or less--which means they could just as easily be 0-6 as they could 5-1. They've had some big wins (and should have won Week 1) but until they start putting teams away, their rating is going to continue to suffer.
17 NY Jets (9) After a 3-0 start, the last 3 weeks have been a disaster for the Jets. Were quarterback Mark Sanchez's first three games too good to be true?
16 Houston (10) Of course the perpetually 8-8 Texans are right in the middle of the pack. Where else would they be?
15 Arizona (10.8) The 2009 Cardinals are just hanging around, beating the bad teams and losing to the good teams. They have six games the rest of the way against teams .500 or better and four games against teams with a combined 1 win, so they theoretically could cruise to an 8-8 record without breaking a sweat.
14 San Francisco (10.8) The 49ers beat the Cardinals head-to-head, so they get the nod for the #14 spot. Who can figure this team out right now? They had a win against the Vikings in the books until Favre's last-minute heroics but two weeks later they're losing 45-10 to Atlanta--at home. They have a very similar remaining schedule to the Cardinals' (including one more head-to-head game) and finally have #1 pick Michael Crabtree in the lineup and running back Frank Gore back from injury.
13 Chicago (10.8) Improbably, the Bears currently have the same rating as the Cardinals and 49ers. But they have only one win over a quality team to go with two close losses to good teams.
12 Baltimore (11) The Ravens would have been near the top of the rankings after three straight wins (two of them via the blowout) to open the season. But three straight losses have Baltimore stuck closer to the middle of the pack.
11 Philadelphia (12) Just looking at the numbers I had Philadelphia coming out ahead of the five other teams with a 12 rating. Until I looked at the fact that the Eagles' three "take care of business games" came against the 25th, 27th, and 32nd ranked teams on this list. That would have been fine until they lost to the 26th-ranked Raiders last week. This automatically disqualifies the Eagles from winning any tiebreakers.
10 Green Bay (12) Like the Eagles, the Packers' biggest wins have come against the dregs of the league (30th ranked Detroit and 31st ranked St. Louis). Their much-awaited rematch with Brett Favre and the Vikings is next weekend, though.
9 Atlanta (12) Atlanta's close win over the Panthers and not-so-close loss to the Patriots keep the 4-1 Falcons sitting behind the 3-2 Cowboys.
8 Dallas (12) The Cowboys have lost close games to two of the best teams in the league (the Giants and Broncos) but struggled to beat the Chiefs two weeks ago, keeping them just below the Patriots on this list.
7 New England (12) The Patriots have a solid win against the Falcons, a close one over the Ravens, and an overtime loss to the Broncos working for them. Plus a 59-0 win gets you the nod when it comes to tiebreakers.
6 Pittsburgh (12) The Steelers followed up back-to-back close losses with three straight wins heading into two straight games against currently undefeated teams (Minnesota and Denver).
5 NY Giants (13) The Giants did not look good against the Saints last week, but that one game did not undo the work they did in their first five. The road ahead is not a picnic for the Giants--7 of their final 10 games are against teams that are above .500.
4 Minnesota (15) The 6-0 Vikings have taken care of business against the 29th, 30th, and 31st ranked teams on the list. Two of their three other games easily could have been losses. That makes the Vikings the 4th best undefeated team in the league.
3 Denver (15) And the answer to my original question--how good are the Broncos--is this: They are the 3rd best team in the NFL. The Broncos' three close wins came against the 7th, 8th, and 19th teams on this list, and they've taken care of business against the three bad teams they've played. It all adds up to an incredible turnaround by the Broncos. And with games remaining against Washington, San Diego, Kansas City (twice), and Oakland, the Broncos actually have a shot at a first round bye in the playoffs.
2 Indianapolis (15.6) After back-to-back squeakers to start the season, the Colts have won their last three by the combined score of 96-36. They come out of the bye with 0-6 St. Louis and then play 8 of their next 9 against teams that are .500 or better.
1 New Orleans (18) And then there are the Saints. They've played 5 games and won all 5 of them by 14 or more. That gives them a perfect record in our ratings system. And with three games remaining with 0-6 teams and only four with teams over .500, it's going to be tough to get them out of this top spot.
Week 7 Picks
New England (-14½) over Tampa Bay Indianapolis (-13½) over ST. LOUIS Minnesota (+5) over PITTSBURGH KANSAS CITY (+5) over San Diego HOUSTON (-3) over San Francisco Green Bay (-7) over CLEVELAND OAKLAND (+7) over NY Jets Buffalo (+7) over CAROLINA CINCINNATI (-1) over Chicago New Orleans (-6½) over MIAMI DALLAS (-4) over Atlanta NY GIANTS (-7) over Arizona Philadelphia (-7) over WASHINGTON
Last year I presented the official Sports in a Can list of the Worst-Run Organizations in Sports. It's time to see where the teams stack up one year later.
With the Arizona Cardinals improbably making a run to the Super Bowl last year, I have moved them off the list (they were #5 last year). But their .373 winning percentage since 1999 and a history of repeated failure could land them right back where they've always been next year. And last year I noted that the Tampa Bay Rays made the leap off the list by advancing to the World Series. But their trade of pitcher Scott Kazmir (a noted Red Sox and Yankees killer) when the team was just 4½ games out of the Wild Card almost put them back on the list.
Beyond the Cardinals and Rays, there are plenty of bad organizations out there deserving of our attention. It's time to take a look at the Top 10 list no team president or general manager wants to be a part of: the Worst-Run Organizations in Sports. (Ranking in parentheses is last year's ranking.)
10. (7) The National Hockey League
Last time the general public cared (before this year): 2002 Highest rated Stanley Cup Finals of the last 15 years: 2009, 1997 Organization's biggest failure: Two words: Gary Bettman
The Stanley Cup Finals generated the best ratings for the league since 2002 and the outdoor games played in baseball stadiums on New Year's Day are phenomenal. But let's be honest for a moment. The NHL lucked out with a great match-up in the Finals (Pittsburgh-Detroit) and New Year's Day comes but once a year. And Commissioner Gary Bettman--who, as I detailed last year, presided over the near-demise of the NHL--is still the commissioner. The games are still on Versus and teams play in Nashville, Columbus, and San Jose, but none are in Quebec and Winnipeg. The league stays on this list until Bettman is gone and they start righting the ship.
9. (X) Buffalo Bills
Last playoff appearance: 2000 Record since last playoff appearance: 61-88 (.409) Organization's biggest failure: Thinking small and blaming much of their woes on being in Buffalo
Welcome to the list, Buffalo! Here's what the Bills have done in just the last year: traded two-time Pro Bowl left tackle Jason Peters and replaced him with Demetrius Bell--who leads the league in penalties committed; signed Terrell Owens (and thought it would be a good thing); and gave a contract extension to Dick Jauron, who is 58-80 as an NFL head coach and has guided just one team to the playoffs. Things are so bad in Buffalo that fans are raising money to rent billboards out of protest. If the Bills miss the playoffs this season, they will have missed the playoffs in every year of this decade (they made the playoffs in the 1999 season, which took place in 2000). 30 different NFL teams made the playoffs during that stretch, and the only other team that didn't--the Houston Texans--did not exist until 2002. It's been a bad stretch for the Bills, and it looks to only be getting worse in the short term.
8. (9) Baltimore Orioles
Last playoff appearance: 1997 Most wins in a season since last playoff appearance: 79 (1998) Record since last playoff appearance: 855-1087 (.440) Organization's biggest failure: Wasting one of the best ballparks in baseball (along with countless millions of dollars)
The Orioles just completed their 12th straight season with fewer than 79 wins, and their 3rd consecutive season with fewer than 70. They've replaced Tampa Bay in the AL East cellar and continue to waste one of the best ballparks in the game. It's not for lack of money spent that's the problem in Baltimore--it's who the Orioles have spent money on. The Orioles routinely land in the top 10 in overall payroll, but big name (and money) flops such as Miguel Tejada and Albert Belle have set the organization back for years. This year's squad was a particularly depressing collection of has-beens and never-will-bes, and nothing coming out of Baltimore tells me that next year will be any different.
7. (2) Cincinnati Bengals
Last two playoff appearances: 2006, 1991 Record since 1991: 105-187 (.360) Organization's biggest failure: A history of incompetence and a lack of a clear plan for the future.
Before the season started, there was little indication that the Bengals would move out of the top 3 on this list. Their performance on HBO's Hard Knocks threatened to move the Bengals to #1. But a funny thing happened on the way to the Bengals' funeral--they started winning. The defense has gelled and the offense has put together game-winning drives in three straight games. But before I move the Bengals off the board, I need to see them finish the book on this season in style and show that they have a plan for the future. After all, the Bengals made the playoffs as recently as the 2005 season--and then followed that up by going 19-28-1 over the next 3 years.
6. (4) Kansas City Royals
Last playoff appearance: 1985 Most wins in a season since last playoff appearance: 92 (1989) Record since last playoff appearance: 1732-2085 (.454) Organization's biggest failure: Bad free agent decisions
49 games. That's how many the Royals won this year in games not started by phenom Zack Greinke. You almost have to try to be this bad, don't you? But the Royals do have the afore-mentioned Greinke, along with 3 other starting pitchers under the age of 30 and 7 position players who are starters and not yet 30. It's possible that the Royals could turn this thing around. Possible. But in the meantime they suffered through a 65-win season--which was actually worse than their 68-win average from the previous 13 seasons. The Tampa Bay Rays proved last year that even small market teams can compete against the Yankees and the Red Sox--if they manage their organization correctly. The worst part of recent history for the Royals is that they actually have been players in the free agent market, but every signing turns into a disaster. If they don't turn things around--and fast--Zack Greinke will be calling another locale home in a few seasons.
5. (6) New York Knicks
Last two playoff appearances: 2004, 2001 Most wins in a season since 2001: 39 (2004) Record since 2001: 250-406 (.381) Organization's biggest failure: Waiting...and waiting...and waiting...for LeBron James
The headline in the New York Daily News last Saturday read, "New York Knicks show midseason form in preseason loss to Boston Celtics." That just about sums things up, doesn't it? While division rival Boston made moves to put the team back in contention, the Knicks have sat back and waited for LeBron James to come save the franchise. Of course, that's probably not going to happen. If you were James, would you want to play for the Knicks? (See stats above.) Meanwhile the Nets are trying to make a move to Brooklyn which would invigorate the franchise and give the team a base in New York. And it might even be more attractive to James. If they lose out on LeBron with no discernable plan in place, it could be many more years of 23- to 39-win seasons in the Knicks' future.
4. (8) Pittsburgh Pirates
Last playoff appearance: 1992 Most wins in a season since last playoff appearance: 79 (1997) Record since last playoff appearance: 1166-1518 (.434) Organization's biggest failure: Stingy ownership
The Pirates move up 4 spots because I decided I had them too low last year. How many more trade deadline moves in which the Pirates give away their best players only to receive low-level prospects in return need to occur before someone steps in and puts the poor Pittsburgh fans out of their misery? I detailed last year how well teams that built new stadiums have done since 1992. But not the Pirates. If baseball ever contracted, the Pirates would be the first team to go. Which is sad, considering the tradition of baseball in Pittsburgh and the fact that their other two teams--the Steelers and Penguins--are defending champions in their leagues. The organization is stingy and could be bad for a long, long time.
3. (3) Los Angeles Clippers
Last two playoff appearances: 2006, 1997 Most ever wins in a season: 49 (1975) Record since moving to Los Angeles (1985): 701-1317 (.347) Organization's biggest failure: They are the anti-Lakers
The Los Angeles Clippers are one of the worst bad franchises of all time. Their best-ever season occurred 39 years ago. Thirty-nine! They are based in Los Angeles, so there are no small market considerations. You'd think by osmosis alone they would learn how to be a better franchise from their cross-town rival, the Lakers, who have now won 10 championships since moving to Los Angeles. The Clippers, meanwhile, have been to the playoffs just twice in 23 years in LA. Draft pick after draft pick is a bust for the Clippers (Michael Olowokandi anyone? How about Yaroslav Korolev?). After last year's abysmal 19-63 season, they selected Blake Grffin in the draft. Will Blake be the start of a new era for the Clippers or will it be the same old story in LA? And I haven't even touched on the fact that their coach, Mike Dunleavy, is 194-298 (.394) with the team. And he spent part of his summer having a verbal battle with the Clippers' most famous fan--ESPN's Bill Simmons, who had drafted an Open Letter to Blake Griffin about how bad the Clippers' franchise is.
2. (1) Detroit Lions
Last playoff appearance: 2000 Record since last playoff appearance: 41-108 (.275) Organization's biggest failure: The worst general manager in sports history ruled the roost until Week 4 of last season
What a minute, an 0-16 record last season and a 1-14 record since I named them the worst-run organization in sports last year and the Lions moved out of the #1 spot? It will all be clear in a moment when I unveil the new #1. But first, the Lions. Matt Millen was finally fired last year after going 31-84 in 8 years as general manager. Since then they've still only won one game. They drafted well and possibly hired well, but their future is still unclear. Until the team can put a better product on the field and win consistently, they are locked in to the top (or near the top) of this list.
1. (10) Oakland Raiders
Last playoff appearance: 2003 Record since last playoff appearance: 25-76 (.248) Organization's biggest failure: Insane owner
The Oakland Raiders have a head coach that beat up an assistant so badly that the assistant thought he was actually going to die, and there might be charges brought against the head coach. They made a trade before the first week of the season (a 1st round draft pick in 2011 for Richard Seymour) that can only be described as moronic. With the #7 overall pick in last year's draft, the Raiders selected Darrius Heyward-Bey even though all experts would have taken Michael Crabtree, and in the 2nd round, they traded up 7 spots to select Mike Mitchell, who was not even on the board of several draft analysts. They are starting a quarterback whose quarterback rating is 35th in the NFL (and yes, there are still only 32 teams), and they steadfastly refuse to try something different. And all of this has occurred since I had them ranked 10th on this list last year. Year after year of mistakes, a 4-11 record since last year's rankings, and no discernable hope for the future is enough to move the Raiders up 9 spots to #1 on the list of the worst-run organizations in sports.
CINCINNATI (-5) over Houston GREEN BAY (-13½) over Detroit JACKSONVILLE (-9½) over St. Louis Baltimore (+3) over MINNESOTA NEW ORLEANS (-3) over NY Giants Cleveland (+14) over PITTSBURGH Carolina (-3) over TAMPA BAY Kansas City (+6½) over WASHINGTON Philadelphia (-14½) over OAKLAND SEATTLE (-3) over Arizona NEW ENGLAND (-9) over Tennessee NY JETS (-9½) over Buffalo Chicago (+3½) over ATLANTA SAN DIEGO (-3½) over Denver
Four weeks of the NFL season are in the books, and we can now see who the contenders are and who the pretenders are, right? Not so fast. All you have to do is go back one season to see that even after four weeks of play, as Hogan's Heroes' Sergeant Schultz would say, "I know nuuu-sssing!"
Last year at this time Buffalo was 4-0, and Tampa Bay, Denver, Washington, and Dallas were 3-1. Buffalo ended the season 7-9, Tampa Bay 9-7, Denver 8-8, Washington 8-8, and Dallas 9-7. None of them made the playoffs. Meanwhile Arizona, Atlanta, San Diego, and Philadelphia were all 2-2, and Indianapolis and Miami were 1-2. All six of those teams made the playoffs. And the Cardinals--after their second of five embarr****ing East Coast trips--ended up making the Super Bowl.
An NFL record five teams are 4-0 this year--the Colts, Broncos, Giants, Vikings, and Saints. Meanwhile, five teams are 0-4 (Kansas City, Cleveland, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis), and Carolina is 0-3. But records don't tell the whole story, as evidenced by last season.
Is there really that much separation between the haves and the have nots? Close games are decided by just a play or two. Take the Broncos. Their Week 1 win came on one of the flukiest plays in the history of the NFL. Three weeks later and they are 4-0. What if they had lost that game? Would they be 0-4 instead? And how about the Titans? They lost to the Steelers in overtime in Week 1. Would they have rattled off four straight wins if they had pulled that one out instead of four straight losses?
The NFL, as we have seen time and time again, is a fickle creature. Teams finish in last one season only to finish in first the next. Teams make it all the way to the Super Bowl one year only to miss the playoffs the next.
This week two of the winless teams take on two of the undefeated teams. Those are two of the games Vegas has posted spreads of 10 or more for. And even with quarterback question marks on two of those favored teams--the Giants and Eagles--I'm having a hard time finding a reason to pick the underdogs. And yet it wouldn't surprise me if one of the underdogs pulled off an upset.
Prognosticators are not immune to the ups and downs of the NFL, either. My first two weeks picking games I was stuck at .500. Last week I went 11-3 against the spread. But you won't hear any gloating from this camp. That 11-3 record could just as easily plummet to 3-11 this week. So let's get to this week's picks...
Week 5 Picks
Cincinnati (+8½) over BALTIMORE PHILADELPHIA (-15) over Tampa Bay NY GIANTS (-14½) over Oakland Dallas (-8) over KANSAS CITY Pittsburgh (-10½) over DETROIT CAROLINA (-3½) over Washington BUFFALO (-6) over Cleveland Minnesota (-10) over ST. LOUIS Atlanta (+2½) over SAN FRANCISCO Jacksonville (E) over SEATTLE New England (-3) over DENVER ARIZONA (-5½) over Houston Indianapolis (-3½) over TENNESSEE NY Jets (-1½) over MIAMI
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