Before we get to my prediction for the game, a few thoughts on Super Bowl XLIV:
* This game between Peyton Manning’s Colts and Drew Brees’ Saints is one of the three most anticipated Super Bowl match-ups of the last 25 years. It features two of the most-talked about teams from the regular season, two of the top quarterbacks in the league, and a game that many believe will be close and compelling. The other two games?
Super Bowl XIX: Joe Montana and Bill Walsh’s San Francisco 49ers went 15-1, winning their final 9 games. They had the #2 offense and #1 defense in the league. Montana and Walsh were gunning for their 2nd Super Bowl title in 3 years. The Miami Dolphins were coached by the legendary Don Shula (head coach of 5 previous Super Bowl entrants, winner 2 of them, including the undefeated Dolphins’ 1972 campaign) and quarterbacked by 2nd-year phenom Dan Marino, who won the MVP after setting an NFL record that still stands with 5,084 passing yards, and a then-NFL record 48 TDs. The Dolphins had the #1 offense and began the season 11-0, finishing 14-2.
Super Bowl XXXIX: Tom Brady’s New England Patriots were looking for back-to-back titles following a 14-2 season in which they rode Corey Dillon’s rushing and Brady’s passing to the 4th-best offense in the league and a defense that allowed the 2nd-fewest points. Bill Belichick sought his 3rd Super Bowl title as head coach (and 5th as a member of a coaching staff) and was widely regarded as the best coach in the game. The Philadelphia Eagles, like the Patriots, raced out to a 13-1 start and advanced to their 4th straight NFC Conference Championship Game. After losing their first three title games, they finally won this year, giving head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Donovan McNabb their first trip to the Super Bowl. They also had wide receiver Terrell Owens, who had 1,200 yards receiving and 14 touchdowns in his first season with the Eagles. He was injured late in the season and doctors did not expect him to play in the Super Bowl. When it was clear he would suit up, it was one more layer of intrigue for this game.
That’s it. You can’t make a case for any other match-up in the last 25 years that was this widely anticipated during the regular season and before the game. Don’t forget, from Super Bowl XX through XXXII the NFC team was expected to wipe the floor with the AFC squad each and every time, and we often joked that the NFC Championship Game should be celebrated as the Super Bowl. Even when the Bills were favored over the Giants in Super Bowl XXV, no one quite believed it (and most people wanted to see 49ers-Bills instead of Giants-Bills). Looking back on it now, we know that Elway-Favre was a premier match-up going into Super Bowl XXXII, but don’t forget, Elway had already been to--and lost--three Super Bowls heading into that one, and the AFC had not won a Super Bowl in the last 13 tries. Elway and the Broncos were looked at the same way the Bills were each successive time they made it: Good, but not good enough. The Packers were favored by 12 points and were widely expected to capture their second straight championship. Only after the Broncos won did we look back and think what a phenomenal match-up it was.
* Do you think Carrie Underwood would be singing the National Anthem if Tony Romo and the Cowboys were playing?
* I don’t think any of us that live outside of New Orleans can truly comprehend the magnitude of what the city and region have gone through post-Katrina. That the Saints have given their fans a magical ride clearly will not change the damage that was done (or the rebuilding that is still going on) down there. But it sure has been a heck of a ride for these passionate fans. And considering how the NFL treated the Saints during the last few years (making them play a scheduled home game at the Giants in 2005 but not giving them an extra home game against those same Giants the next season, and then sending the Saints to London in 2008, costing them another home game), it’s downright karmic that the Saints have made a Super Bowl run this year.
* Speaking of New Orleans, has there ever been a situation in which it might be more fun to hang out in the team’s home city instead of the site of the game on Super Bowl Sunday? I don’t think so.
* As a Patriots fan, it’s difficult to admit, but I will: Peyton Manning is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. He’s playing at a level perhaps never seen before in the NFL. In an era when 47 coaches typically construct and call the game plan and defenses have never been more complex, Manning takes a “direction” in his headset from offensive coordinator Tom Moore, calls a play based on this direction, changes the play based on what he sees, and then executes it to near flawless direction. He’s compiled a 77-19 record as a starter, has never missed a game, won a record four MVPs, and is heading to his 2nd Super Bowl. With the various rules changes throughout the years and the fact that two of the best quarterbacks this past season were 40 and 38 years old (Brett Favre and Kurt Warner), it’s quite possible that Manning could play at this extremely high level for the next 6-7 years.
* Especially this season, Manning and the Colts have been the masters of making in-game adjustments to the defensive scheme and dominating offensively for the remainder of the game. They did it against the Jets in the AFC Championship Game and several times during the season. That’s why, if I were Saints’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, I would have two completely different defensive game plans--one for the first half and one for the second half. The Super Bowl halftime is 30 minutes, compared to 15 in the regular season. That would be enough time to go over the new game plan, line calls, and hand signals with the troops. And I would institute this new game plan no matter what happened in the first half. Because even if you kept Manning down for the first half, he’ll have it figured out for the second half. Unless you completely confuse him with a new plan.
* Speaking of halftime, is anyone excited about The Who at halftime? Other than Who fans, that is? It’s one thing to have Bruce Springsteen last year. At least he was an aged rocker who actually had a new album out, thus making him current. The Who’s last studio album came out in 2006 and I’d challenge anyone to tell me the name of the album or any song off the album without looking online.
* Have we ever seen two teams square off that could care less about falling behind? The Colts trailed the Patriots 31-14 in the 4th quarter and came back to win. Against the Jets in the AFC Championship Game they trailed 17-6 and promptly marched down the field for a touchdown before halftime. The Saints, meanwhile, trailed the Dolphins 24-3 in the 2nd quarter--and went on to win by 12. There will be no blinking from either side. How big of a lead would be enough to make one team comfortable in this game? 20? 30? How each team reacts to the other team’s scores will be fascinating.
* Settle in for what could be an historic 4th quarter. In the last 11 Super Bowls, the average points scored per quarter over the first 3 quarters was 8.8. In the 4th quarter, the average points scored was 19.3. The two teams have combined for 20 or more points in the 4th quarter 5 times, and in 3 games there were more points scored in the 4th quarter than in the other 3 quarters combined. With the top two offenses in the NFL on the field and the Colts’ and Saints’ penchant for scoring late, we could see a 4th quarter with more than the 37 points the Patriots and Panthers tallied in Super Bowl XXXVIII.
* We’ve only just begun hearing about the labor issues, but I’m tired of hearing about it already. Get ready for an uncapped year in 2010 and potentially no football in 2011. The NFL is by far the most popular and the healthiest sport on the planet, and yet the owners are still are having trouble making the economics work. Unbelievable.
* Prediction time! I might only have a 117-146-3 record picking games against the spread this year (and a 2-8 record in the playoffs), but since 2002, I have a 4-1 record against the spread in Super Bowl games not featuring a favored Patriots team (I completely overrated them in their last three Super Bowl appearances). And the one game I was wrong about was the last time the Colts were here, when I went opposite of my first instinct because I was dreadful picking games that postseason (sounds familiar). So I’m going with my first thoughts in this one.
If the Saints play the way they did against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game (or in their consecutive regular season games against the Redskins, Falcons, Cowboys, and Bucs) they have no chance of winning. The Colts are just too good, and more than likely will not turn the ball over at the same rate the Vikings did. On the flip side, this is by far the best, most-balanced, explosive team the Colts have faced this season. The toughest games the Colts had this season came at the hands of the Texans, Patriots, Ravens, and Jaguars. Two of those teams didn’t make the playoffs, and none of them would have been able to handle the Saints. If both of these teams bring their A games, we will be in for a Super Bowl for the ages.
The last two Super Bowls have ended with back-to-back drives for scores by the two offenses, and if any Super Bowl game was set up for an offensive explosion by both teams in the 4th quarter, it’s this one. But the problem is the last time we had three straight close Super Bowls was…never. So the odds are stacked against us. I think this one will be close until the 4th quarter, there will be an offensive explosion, but the Colts will pull away with multiple scores, covering the spread (-5) and winning by 13 in a high-scoring affair.
After four straight years of road dominance in round 2 of the NFL playoffs, order was (almost) restored this past weekend. In the previous four years, the top two seeds in the AFC and NFC went a combined 7-9 following their bye. And the top AFC and NFC teams had failed to win in the same year since the 2004 season, the last time all four home teams won on the NFL’s second weekend.
But this year the first three home teams won their games, and did so convincingly, winning by 31, 17, and 31 points. It looked as if order would finally be completely restored. And then the Jets knocked off the Chargers.
But 3-out-of-4 is better than what we’ve had lately. It used to be commonplace for the best teams to win in the playoffs. Shouldn’t “upsets” happen every once in a while instead of every season? After all, what use is the regular season if your seed is meaningless?
Last year was the ultimate insult to the NFL’s regular season, as the 9-6-1 Philadelphia Eagles upset the 12-4 Giants and ended up hosting the NFC Championship Game--because the 9-7 Arizona Cardinals upset the 12-4 Panthers. The Eagles--a team that actually tied a game during the regular season--hosted a team they beat by 28 points on Thanksgiving night for the right to go to the Super Bowl. And then they lost!
This year, though, we have three worthy contenders for the title and just one interloper. The Colts, Saints, and Vikings have been regarded as three of the best teams all season. And then there are the Jets. More on them in a moment.
Since my playoff picks have been nothing to write home about (1-7 against the spread), instead of breaking down the upcoming games, let’s take a look at the pressing questions regarding the NFL as we head into Conference Championship weekend:
What one team does the NFL not want to reach the Super Bowl? This one’s easy: The New York Jets. In the 12 years that the NFL had 3 division winners and 3 Wild Card teams (1990-2001) make the playoffs, only 4 teams made the Super Bowl without having a bye. In the 7 years since going with 4 divisions and 2 Wild Card teams (2002-2008) in the postseason, 5 teams have made the Super Bowl after playing opening weekend, and two of those teams won 3 straight road games and won the Super Bowl (’05 Steelers and ’07 Giants), a feat that had never been done before. The current system produces more upsets than ever before, but the ultimate slap in the NFL’s face would be for the Jets to make the Super Bowl this year. After their Week 15 loss to Atlanta their own coach declared that they had no chance of making the playoffs. But then they beat back-to-back teams that had pulled their starters during the game to “sneak” in. Now they’re one win away from the Super Bowl. Add in the fact that this team has a rookie quarterback and a rookie head coach, and they would be one of the most unlikely Super Bowl entrants ever.
How did the Jets beat the Chargers last week? Let’s give credit where credit is due--the Jets had a great defensive gameplan and did just enough on offense to win. But what on earth was head coach Norv Turner thinking? It was clear very early on in this game that LaDanian Tomlinson was not going to be effective against the Jets’ defense. And yet they kept handing him the ball time after time (he finished with just 24 yards on 12 carries for a 2.0 average). Meanwhile, during their drive before halftime, Darren Sproles gained 9 and 22 yards on back-to-back runs. Why didn’t they utilize Sproles more in the 2nd half? (Sproles finished with 3 carries--all in the 1st half--for 33 yards.) And since the Jets’ defense is predicated on confusing the offense with how they line up pre-snap, why not go to a hurry-up offense to try and take away the Jets’ advantage? And finally, why on earth did they onside kick after cutting the lead to 3, when kicking deep to a team that had only 13 first downs all game was the right play? I guess I just answered this question with many more questions, but I know one thing: The Chargers will be thinking about this game for a long time. Because if they had won, they were off to play the Colts--a team they’d beaten in the playoffs two years in a row--and could have ended up in the Super Bowl.
Did the Arizona Cardinals really give up 70 points over a 4-quarter span in two playoff games? Yes. Which makes it even more shocking that the Cardinals made the Super Bowl last year. Their defense was atrocious the last two weeks, and it could have been worse if the Saints hadn’t had mercy on them in the 2nd half last week.
Speaking of having mercy, what was up with the Vikings running up the score on the Cowboys? After taking a 17-3 lead into halftime, the Vikings went ultra-conservative in the 3rd quarter, as Brett Favre threw a grand total of 6 passes on 4 drives that resulted in just 3 points. Leading 20-3 in the 4th, the game was clearly over. And the Vikings were still trying to run the ball, as Favre threw just 3 passes on the next two drives, one for a touchdown and the other an incomplete 4th down pass. I think head coach Brad Childress thought, “What the heck, let’s get Favre some more playoff stats because next week we might be running the ball like crazy against the Saints.” Was it running up the score when Favre threw the 4th-down touchdown pass with 1:55 remaining? You can call it whatever you want. All I know is that if Bill Belichick were coaching the Vikings, this is all we would have heard about the past week. But if the Vikings want to keep scoring and padding Favre’s stats, it’s up to the Cowboys to stop them, not the Vikings.
What is with all of the young running backs in the playoffs? If this postseason has taught us anything, it’s that young running backs are the way to go. Consider these numbers from the first two rounds:
Add in the fact that of the 11 runs of 20 yards or more, only 3 of them came from running backs over the age of 25 (and the youngins had runs of 53, 70, 73, and 83 yards, all longer than anything done by the older fellows) and you’ve got a pretty impressive trend. And the numbers for the young studs includes 24-year-old Adrian Peterson’s depressing 26-63 (2.4 average) game against the Saints. Meanwhile, the Patriots had 17 carries from running backs aged 32, 33, 33 in their round 1 loss. The key to the running game in the NFL right now? Draft young talent. And dump them before they get too old. And by too old, I apparently mean 26.
Did the Bills really hire Chan Gailey as their new coach? And if so, why? Yes, they did. And I don’t know why. New general manager Buddy Nix wanted someone with prior head coaching experience even though we’ve watched former assistants Mike Tomlin, Ken Whisenhunt, John Harbaugh, and Rex Ryan go 12-5 in the playoffs in a combined nine years on the job. Meanwhile, Leslie Frazier, Minnesota’s defensive coordinator and much-sought-after interviewee due to the “Rooney Rule,” put on a dazzling display against the Cowboys last week and would have invigorated the fan base far more than Gailey will. Gailey went 18-14 in two seasons as head coach of the Cowboys back in 1999. That’s the extent of his NFL head coaching experience. And he was fired as offensive coordinator from the Chiefs before the season even started. What would be the harm in waiting one more week to see if Frazier’s team is knocked out of the playoffs and would therefore be available to take over as Bills’ coach? Why one earth did they need to make the move last week? Were they afraid the Raiders would steal Gailey from them?
Speaking of the Raiders, what is going on there? Al Davis is crazy. That’s really it.
Enough about the teams that are out of the playoffs. Do the Jets have a chance against the Colts this week? Absolutely. You know why? Because I think they have no chance. And I’ve been dead wrong on almost every playoff game. Plus we just watched the Colts play a very similar team as the Jets last week in the Ravens, and if not for questionable play-calling before the half by the Ravens (back-to-back pass plays that, when they weren’t completed, gave the ball back to Manning and the Colts with enough time to score a touchdown), that game might have been closer. And if the Jets can keep it close, they’ve shown two weeks in a row that they have what it takes to win.
Which game do you most want to watch? Definitely Vikings-Saints. That one could be the most exciting game of the playoffs. (Again, since I’ve been wrong each week, expect this one to be a blowout.) But how can you not be excited to watch Drew Brees running Sean Payton’s inventive offense against a Vikings’ defense that finally lived up to years of expectations against the Cowboys last week? And on the other side, 40-year-old sure Hall of Famer Brett Favre continues his remarkable season (37 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions through last week).
Which match-up does CBS most want for the Super Bowl? Colts-Vikings. The Manning-Favre talk would be endless for two weeks, and it would be the most-hyped QB match-up since Joe Montana vs. Dan Marino 25 years ago.
Which Super Bowl match-up are you predicting? Call your bookies people (with the opposite of what I’m about to predict)! Since I would have gone 3-1 last week if I went with my first instinct, I’m going with my first thought this week. I do think the Jets will keep it close. For a while. But I think the Colts end up getting a late score or two to put the Jets away. And I think the Saints-Vikings game will come down to the wire, with the Saints winning 31-27. So, considering my track record, get ready for a Jets-Vikings Super Bowl. Brett Favre against the team he played for last season. And somewhere in Cleveland Eric Mangini will be slamming his head against the wall repeatedly. If I’m wrong, of course.
Never trust a rookie quarterback on the road. Always trust Tom Brady at home in January. Tony Romo and Wade Phillips can’t win playoff games. Defense wins in the postseason. Those are the things we knew going into last week’s games. And then rookie Mark Sanchez’s Jets won on the road, Tom Brady (along with the rest of the Patriots) melted down at home and lost, the Cowboys (and Tony Romo and Wade Phillips) finally won a playoff game, and the Cardinals and Packers ignored defense until overtime in Arizona’s unbelievable 51-45 win.
Welcome to Week 2 of the NFL’s rule-breaking playoff season. I titled last week’s post Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results and yet didn’t heed my own advice that past performances would have no bearing on the games. It doesn’t matter if Tom Brady never lost a home playoff game. The banged-up 2010 version of Tom Brady is not the same player (nor was his team a typical 21st Century Patriots team). It doesn’t matter if the Cowboys haven’t won a playoff game in 13 years. After all, the Red Sox organization went 86 years between World Series wins--but that didn’t matter to the 2004 edition of the Red Sox.
Every season is different. And every team is different from one year to the next. As a matter of fact, teams are sometimes different from one week to the next, or one part of the season to the next. So as we take a look at this weekend’s four divisional playoff games, we’ll take a look at what we know, what we think we know, and what I’d like to predict. Then I’ll throw the red challenge flag on each pick and see how the call stands up.
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-7)
What we know: The Saints looked an awful lot like the ’99 Rams or the ’07 Patriots for the first 11 weeks of the season. After that they looked awful as they barely won back-to-back games and then lost their final three. The Cardinals looked an awful lot like the ’08 Cardinals for most of the season--great one game and awful the next. And, just like last year, they won their first playoff game when no one thought they would.
What we think we know: The Cardinals’ defense allowed 493 yards of offense to a team that averaged 379 during the regular season, so the Saints might score 60 in this game. The Saints’ defense was even worse than the Cardinals’ in the regular season, so the Cardinals have a shot at playing pinball again.
What I’d like to predict: Saints 62, Cardinals 49
Upon further review: There is no way the Cardinals play as poorly on defense as they did last week. Plus, if Arizona’s offensive line plays as well as it did last week (1 sack and just 3 quarterback hits allowed) and Warner can be anywhere near as accurate as he was last week (only 4 incompletions in 33 attempts), the Cardinals can definitely keep this one close. We don’t know what to expect from the Saints, considering their 13-0 start and dreadful finish, but you have to think they can shake off any slow start and hang on for a close win.
Pick: Saints 30, Cardinals 24 [And the game stays under the over/under of 57½]
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts (-6½)
What we know: The Colts narrowly beat the Ravens by 2 back in Week 11 and won their first 14 games this season. The Ravens beat the Patriots last week by running the ball an incredible 52 times for 234 yards while forcing 4 turnovers.
What we think we know: The Colts don’t play well when they have a first round bye (0-2 in the playoffs in the Peyton Manning era); the Ravens play old school, smash-mouth football, and a solid defense plus a great rushing attack is not how you win championships in the NFL in 2010.
What I’d like to predict: Colts 38, Ravens 10
Upon further review: Yes, the Colts seem ill-prepared come playoff time when they have had the bye week at their disposal, and they won their lone Super Bowl (and advanced to another AFC Championship Game) in a season in which they came out of the Wild Card round. Their offense is a precision offense, based on timing as much as anything. That sort of offense does seem to be out of rhythm after time off (or at the beginning of a season, as has been the case the last few years). So it is more than likely that the Colts will struggle, especially early in this game. And the Ravens, if they can continue to run the ball well and can get Joe Flacco right again, could pull off the upset. But there’s no way they’ll go through another game with Flacco throwing only 10 passes, and the last time he threw for more than 300 yards was back in Week 6. If the Colts get hot early, this could be the blowout I originally expected. But I do think the Ravens will end up keeping it close, with the Colts hanging on in the end for the win.
Pick: Colts 20, Ravens 15
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (-2½)
What we know: Since losing at home to the Chargers in Week 14, the Cowboys handed the Saints their first loss, shut out their last two opponents and destroyed the Eagles last week. The Vikings, after starting 10-1, the Vikings lost 3 of 4 before laying the smackdown on the Giants.
What we think we know: The Vikings will have an advantage playing at home in the Metrodome; Brett Favre will have his inevitable playoff meltdown some time over the next 3 games; the Cowboys have shed their past December/January failures.
What I’d like to predict: Vikings 31, Cowboys 27
Upon further review: The Vikings had trouble selling out their playoff game last year against the Eagles, and there are Cowboys fans everywhere. Plus, according to Kevin Seifert, ESPN’s NFC North blogger, the crowd in Minnesota is not as loud as they sometimes should be. And although Favre has indeed melted down in playoff games in the past (including his 6-INT game against the Rams in 2002, his 4-INT game at home against the Vikings in 2005, and his interception in overtime against the Giants in 2008), he also has played brilliantly, including the game before the Giants meltdown in 2008, when he led the Packers to a 42-20 win over Seattle. Meanwhile, the Cowboys have gone from annual chokers to the most feared team in the playoffs. Since my picks have bee so bad, I’ll go opposite on this one and predict the Cowboys keep it going in this game. But this one, more than any game this weekend, is a toss-up.
Pick: Cowboys 27, Vikings 24
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers (-7)
What we know: The Jets finished the season with the #1-ranked defense in the NFL. The Chargers have won 11 in a row.
What we think we know: The Chargers are on a roll and the Jets are lucky to be where they are, having beaten two teams in three weeks that either weren’t trying or were not good.
What I’d like to predict: Chargers 42, Jets 17
Upon further review: The Jets’ defensive schemes and conservative run-oriented offensive approach worked perfectly last week against a banged-up, ill-equipped Bengals team. And it might work early on in their match-up with the Chargers. But San Diego is far too explosive on offense to be held in check for an entire game. As a matter of fact, the last time the Chargers scored fewer than 20 points was in Week 13. Last season. Meanwhile, Jets’ rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez has thrown more than 20 passes just five times in his last eleven games. And in those five games he threw 14 interceptions. Given the time the Chargers have had to prepare for this game, the way they’ve been playing, and what will probably happen if Sanchez has to throw a lot of passes (a lot of interceptions), my original pick stands as called.
The NFL Playoffs, Round 1: Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results
How else should one of the craziest NFL seasons in recent memory conclude than with three Week 17 match-ups that end up as rematches in Round 1 of the playoffs? And the thing that makes the least sense--and therefore will probably happen--for all three Week 17 losers to turn around and win in Round 1. Considering how last year went (three teams with worse records winning in Round 1 and the Cardinals--one of the most inconsistent teams of all time--advancing to the Super Bowl) in the NFL the financial mantra holds true: Past performance is not indicative of future results.
So pay no attention to what happened last week. This trend will continue into next week as we assess the Colts and Saints, neither of whom have played a real game in weeks. And before you start looking forward to the Colts playing the Chargers in the AFC Championship Game and the Saints playing the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game, consider this: since 2005, only once have the #1 and #2 seeds from either league met in the championship game (2006 NFC Championship Game: Bears-Saints).
But let’s not get ahead of ourselves and instead take a look at the NFL’s first round of games:
NY Jets at Cincinnati (-2½) Last Sunday night Cincinnati rested running back Cedric Benson, and according to head coach Marvin Lewis, the Bengals did not want to show too much to the Jets since they might meet the following week. The Jets needed a win to make the playoffs and played everyone. Let’s pretend that game never happened. Wouldn’t everyone be on the Bengals’ bandwagon in that case? They’ve beaten the Ravens--the most similar team to the Jets--twice this season. They will more than likely load up to stop the run and try to force Jets’ rookie QB Mark Sanchez--who has thrown 10 INTS against only 4 TDs, while averaging only 143 yards passing per game over his last seven games--to win the game. My money’s on Cincinnati. Pick: Cincinnati 19, NY Jets 10
Philadelphia at Dallas (-3½) What is it about the Saturday night game in Round 1? Something crazy has happened every year since NBC took over televising this game. Consider:
2008: San Diego--who finished 8-8 and barely made the playoffs--knocks off the 12-4 Colts, winners of 9 straight. 2007: The Steelers overcome an 18-point 4th quarter deficit to take a 1-point lead, only to lose to the Jaguars on a late field goal. 2006: Down by 1 to the Seahawks, the Cowboys (behind rookie QB Tony Romo) drive to the 2-yard line but Romo fumbles the snap on the 19-yard field goal try and the Seahawks improbably survive.
So what do we have in store for this year’s game? Everyone’s on the Cowboys bandwagon now but let’s not underestimate the Eagles. At various points this season they’ve looked like one of the elite teams, and, considering the fact that they were one win away from the #2 seed, they appear to be the most dangerous #6 seed since the ’05 Steelers (who won the Super Bowl). So here’s my prediction: A punt finally hits the gigantic Cowboys Stadium TV (something we’ve been waiting for all season), and Andy Reid, fearing that it will happen again, orders the Eagles to go for it on 4th down but they fail to convert. The Cowboys take over and, trailing Philadelphia by 1 late in the 4th quarter, drive to the goal-line. Not wanting to see a repeat of the botched field goal play from three years ago, Wade Phillips orders an aggressive pass play instead of a safe running play (followed by a field goal). Asante Samuel intercepts Romo’s pass and returns it for a touchdown. Pick: Philadelphia 28, Dallas 20
Baltimore at New England (-3) The Wes Welker injury is going to be very tough for the Patriots to overcome. Although Julian Edelman looks like Welker, he’s being asked to replace a guy who had an historic season catching the ball (and has become Tom Brady’s security blanket). I think Belichick would love to rely heavily on the rushing attack in this game to help his offense adjust to life without Welker, but the Ravens are just too good against the run. So expect to see the normal wide receiver packages we’re used to from New England. On defense, with Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren back from injury, the Patriots will be tough to run on, meaning Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is going to have to carry the load. In a game in which the better quarterback play will be the difference, I’ll go with a banged-up Tom Brady over 2nd-year QB Flaaco. But just barely. Pick: New England 20, Baltimore 16
Green Bay at Arizona (-1) As Chris Berman would say on NFL Countdown, “You’re ALL on the Packers!” I just don’t know why, to be honest with you. Green Bay beat the heck out of a Cardinals team that clearly packed it in last week, and their previous three games were a 48-10 win over an awful Seahawks team, a 37-36 loss to the Steelers, and a 21-14 win over a bad Bears team. The Cardinals snuck up on everyone last year and I think they’ll do it again in this game. I don’t even think it will be close. Arizona 34, Green Bay 20
When I made my NFC and AFC predictions this year, I added a little blurb at the end of each that began, “Wouldn’t surprise me if.” This was followed by things that would be unexpected but really wouldn’t surprise me based on my predictions. Below is a review of the good, the sort-of-good, and the ugly, concerning my 2009 predictions.
Introducing…the Amazing Kreskin!
I nailed all four AFC division champions (including my out-of-nowhere pick of the Cincinnati Bengals going 10-6 and winning the division) as well as the Saints going from worst to first in the NFC South.
Wouldn't surprise me if: Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman sees the field by Week 6 (either because Byron Leftwich can't go or is ineffective). I was off by one week (but Leftwich had been replaced by Josh Johnson in Week 3) so I’m taking this one. Week 7, in London against the Patriots, Freeman sees his first action and starts the next game for the Bucs.
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Chiefs open the season 2-7--with both wins coming against the Raiders. The Chiefs did indeed open 2-7. But they lost their first game to the Raiders by just 3 points (they won their second meeting with Oakland and also beat Washington).
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Raiders ruin your Thanksgiving dinner (they play Dallas that afternoon). Dallas 24, Oakland 7, in a very ugly game. Indigestion abounded. Mission accomplished, Oakland.
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Colts enter their Week 10 showdown with the Patriots at 8-0. Bingo! Of course I also said it wouldn’t surprise me if the Pats were 8-0 as well and look how that turned out (the Pats were 6-2 entering the game). But I nailed this one.
Close, but no Cigar…
I correctly picked 7 of the 12 playoff teams and almost went 6-for-6 in the AFC (Jacksonville and Pittsburgh were both alive for playoff berths in Week 17). In addition to guessing Cincinnati’s record exactly, I was within 1 win for 8 other teams and within 2 wins for 9 teams, giving me 18 out of 32 within 2 wins.
Wouldn't surprise me if: Philadelphia beat Dallas in Week 17 for the 2nd year in a row--clinching the #1 seed and eliminating the Cowboys from playoff contention. Philly and Dallas played Week 17 with the division title on the line and a #2 seed for the Eagles—but the Cowboys won.
Wouldn't surprise me if: Daniel Snyder fires head coach Jim Zorn during the season in preparation of replacing him with Mike Shanahan in the offseason. Emperor Dan waited until the season was over. But lo and behold Mike Shanahan is already in the fold, which means he had to have been negotiating with him during the season.
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Cowboys start 8-3 only to lose their final 5 games (@NYG, SD, @NO, @Was, Phi). Dallas began 8-3 and then lost their next two—leading me to think I nailed this one—and then they won their final three.
Wouldn't surprise me if: Steven Jackson leads the NFC in rushing. Jackson rushed for 1,416 yards, tops in the NFC and second only to Titans’ phenom Chris Johnson, who had one of the six greatest seasons by a running back in NFL history.
Wouldn't surprise me if: Drew Brees flirts with 5,000 yards passing again. Brees finished 6th in the NFL with 4,388 yards passing and didn’t play in the Saints’ final game. If not for his back-to-back rough outings against Buffalo (172 yards) and the Jets (190 yards) he would have been right there again.
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Bears finish with a 5-game winning streak (STL, GB, @Bal, Min, @Det). It also wouldn't surprise me if the December 28 night game at home against Minnesota features a Brett Favre meltdown for the Vikings. The Bears won 3 of their final 5 and did beat the Vikings although Favre didn’t quite melt down in that one.
Wouldn't surprise me if: Favre has another December swoon and the Vikings lose 4 of their last 5 games--but make the playoffs anyway. The Vikings lost 3 of their final 5 and still made the playoffs, and instead of a swoon, there was a Favre controversy instead.
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Ravens lose all 3 of their scheduled night games this season--at Cleveland and Green Bay, and at home against the Steelers. 2 out of 3 on this one. The Ravens beat the Browns 16-0 but lost to Green Bay and Pittsburgh.
I Would Like to Retract These Statements
12-4 for the Seahawks? They went 5-11. 8-8 for the Rams? They went 1-15. Denver and San Francisco 2-14? They both went 8-8. Ouch, ouch, and ouch.
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Giants win the 2nd most games in the NFC but end up a Wild Card. Oops.
Wouldn't surprise me if: Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck makes his 4th Pro Bowl--he's been selected every other year starting in 2003. Not quite.
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Lions' losing streak ends against an unexpected opponent--the Steelers, perhaps (Pittsburgh faces Detroit in a sandwich game--one week after a tough San Diego team but before rival Cleveland). Does Washington count as an unexpected win? No, I guess not.
Wouldn't surprise me if: The Jets open the season 0-5 (@Hou, NE, Ten, @NO, and @Mia). Did I say 0-5? I meant 3-0, followed by three straight losses.
Wouldn't surprise me if: Roethlisberger throws more interceptions than touchdowns this season (he threw 13 INTS vs. 17 TDs last year). Through 6 games, Big Ben had thrown 10 TDs and 6 INTs and I thought this one was money. He finished with 26 TDs and only 12 INTs even though he threw the ball 506 times (6th-most in the AFC).
And after my 5th straight year of going under .500 picking against the spread (115-138-3) I’ll still be making playoff picks. Hopefully they end up in the first category, and not this final one.
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