Most industries look into a crystal ball to predict the happenings of the coming year.  In sports (a $750 billion dollar industry), we do things a bit differently.

10) THE GLOBAL MARK-UP PLACE.
Look for corporations to continue to spend over $13 billion on superstar endorsements - with a focus on international faces.  Nike will continue its $1.5 billion annual commitment, but will focus more intensely on international deals.  Colombian Juan Pablo Montoya will energize the Latino market for NASCAR.  Mexican Lorena Ochoa will add to a 10-20% ratings and attendance bump for the LPGA. 

Mexican Eduardo Najera will earn more than $1.5 million from endorsements by Mexican companies Telcel, Corona, and the like - while playing for the Denver Nuggets.  The NBA Finals will air in over 205 countries.  And Japanese sensation Matsuzaka will be an economic hit - at least with the 20,000 tourists who will spend over $75 million next year watching him pitch in the Boston area. 

9) FEDEX GETS TEED OFF.
The PGA Tour will successfully begin its new television deal, including its 15 year partnership with the Golf Channel.  But the FedEx Cup's freshman year will be marked by a major eligibility controversy or scoring flack - as is inevitable for any new sports championship system. 

Tiger Woods will win 10 tournaments and half of golf's four majors.  He'll also reach the $100 million mark in Nike and American Express endorsements, rendering his $10 million in tournament earnings insignificant.  Billy Payne will begin his Masters reign with dignity and political correctness.  We will miss Arnold Palmer, but will still be spending over $150 million in retail sales for his products - including iced tea, wine, Christmas ornaments, and even teddy bears.

8) OLYMPIC DIRTY RINGS.
China will overspend the $30 billion budgeted for the 2008 Beijing Olympics by 11 percent in 2007 and another 9 percent in 2008.  What's more, an international outcry to boycott the 2008 Beijing Games will originate in the U.S. Congress or the United Nations, or both, based on China's lukewarm stance on North Korean nuclear and trade issues, its documents and persistent, human rights violations. 

British Columbia will continue to deflect the taxpayer furor over the new estimated C$1.5 billion of public money for 2010 Vancouver Olympics.  Across the pond, Londoners will slowly accept the $1.7 billion budget increase for their 2012 games - including a $6.3 billion stadium cost, rather than the $4.52 billion original estimate.  And Chicago will vie to be the USOC's choice as its 2016 representative (with the selection process culminating in the summer).

7) CORPORATE NAME CALLING.
2006 delivered the most extensive naming rights deal in pro sports history with Citigroup's $400 million 20-year deal with the Mets for CitiField.  Look for more where that came from in 2007, including the two most expensive deals in history - the Giants/Jets stadium, and a new name for the rebuilt Yankee stadium, both of which will top $1 billion. 

Corporations will spend more than $15 billion in total television advertising in 2007, with the NFL leading the pack at over $2 billion and college basketball, golf, NBA and NASCAR at less than half that, respectively.  Look for funky new ways for corporations to emerge from the pack, like XCel Energy putting its logo on the jerseys of Major League Soccer Real Salt Lake. 

6) BBOC (BIG BUCKS ON CAMPUS).
Controversy in the $5 billion college football business has become the norm, and it will intensify in 2007.

Should college football and basketball players be paid?  Should we have a college football playoff?  Neither will happen, but the talk will continue.  Look for the Agent Responsibility and Trust Act to be sporadically enforced to keep the agents off campus, but not enough to produce meaningful reform.  But look for the United States House Ways and Means Committee to launch a powerful inquiry into the business of college sports that will finally capture the attention of top administrators.

5) DO THE BOARDROOM SHUFFLE.
Manchester United will re-emerge at the top of the franchise value pecking order.  ManU's payroll will increase to US$153.3 million by 2012, with operating profits to be more than US$196 million by 2011. 

Yet the NFL will continue to provide the biggest on-paper value for most owners, averaging nearly $850 million per franchise by the end of the year (up at least 10% annually).  The Redskins will be worth over $1.5 billion, with Philadelphia, Dallas, and New England close behind.  Look for the Yankees to be baseball's flagship billion-dollar franchise, as they make the playoffs again in 2007 (and spend $300 million to do so). 

Unbelievably, the New York Knicks will maintain their $500 million NBA valuation despite a payroll that is nearly 170% over the soft salary cap. 

4) NASCAR GETS LAPPED UP.
Despite its new television deals with ABC/ESPN Family and FOX, NASCAR ratings will decline by three to four percent.  Toyota will enter the sport with a big marketing and hospitality blitz at Daytona; any one of five companies will replace Busch as the title sponsor of NASCAR's "second series."  The "Car of Tomorrow" will create even more positive publicity for the sport.

3) THE NFL'S SPIN MOVE.
The League will face its largest challenge since the Collective Bargaining Agreement when it finally unveils the details of its revenue sharing plan.   Look for ongoing disputes between smaller market teams (Buffalo and Cincinnati, for example) and the "haves."  

Roger Goodell will become the sport industry's preeminent Spin Maester, from personally fixing T.O.'s image to defending the thirty-five NFL player indictments in 2006.  Brady Quinn and Troy Smith will be bitter endorsement rivals as first-round draft picks this spring - at least one charge of racially-motivated preferential treatment will be aired by an agent or pundit.

New Orleans will continue to be the "feel-good" story of 2007.  Reggie Bush will lead the league in jersey sales, and the team will make a run at the Dallas Cowboys as America's Team - the $182 million Superdome rebuilding will be a constant reminder of New Orleans' rebirth as the Saints head into the playoffs and again take the field in late summer.

2) FRANCHISE HIP HOP.
In the NFL, the 49ers will finalize their deal with Santa Clara, despite an eleventh-hour plea from San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom, seconded by former Mayor Willie Brown. 

The San Diego Chargers will dance with Chula Vista, seeking additional state help coupled with one final push for Los Angeles funding. The Minnesota Vikings will finalize their deal this spring in the State legislature, either in Blaine or downtown Minneapolis. 

In the NHL, the Penguins will visit Kansas City, Oklahoma City, Seattle and Hamilton as the impact of the failed $290 million Isle of Capri casino bid weighs down Pittsburgh.  In baseball, look for the Florida Marlins to finally put one final, final, final deadline in the Florida legislature.  In the NBA, the Sacramento Kings and the Seattle Supersonics will spend the year testing other markets while attempting to complete deals at home. 

Finally, there's Las Vegas.  With a $55 billion national casino business and a $14 billion Internet gambling industry ($3 trillion gambled worldwide), odds are that Las Vegas and its "family demographics" will be home to a professional sports franchise in the near future...but not in 2007.

1) BONDED.
Baseball continues its sixteen years of consecutive labor peace - unbelievably, the most of any sport. Commissioner Bud Selig will end his tenure with over $300 million in revenue sharing transferred from the "haves" to the "have nots."

An under-the-radar small market team will emerge from the pack to be a surprise playoff participant in 2007.  The Chicago Tribune company will offer the Cubs for sale - and will sell the team for over $700 million. 

Most critically - like him or hate him - Barry Bonds will break Hank Aaron's all-time homerun record, hitting 756 right after the fourth of July.  Though consumed in steroid- and personality-related controversy, the Bonds home run watch will dominate the headlines from Spring Training on...and generate record crowds in the process.

The college bowl business is bigger than ever, prompting four final business questions that may guide the future: 

1. Will the NCAA Continue to Refer to Its Student-Athletes as "Amateurs," or Will It Finally Recognize the Big Business Nature of the Sport?

Last year, EA Sports made over $79 million from "NCAA Football 06," its popular video game.  Ironically, the University of Florida received $112,000 from that game - with players' uniform numbers, physical attributes, and other features dominating the video.  While player names are not used, they're easily recognizable.  Yet only the schools are compensated, not the players. 

Over the last five years, seven states have debated the specific issue of compensating student-athletes (with Nebraska leading the way).  Three years ago, former UCLA football player Ramogi Huma founded the Collegiate Athletes Coalition to "represent the student-athlete" - aligning with United States Steel Works of America.  Unfortunately for the cause, most other athletes have a short attention span on this issue, focusing on going pro or finding another job. 

The issue of when a student-athlete becomes a "professional" is also open for debate.  When former Oklahoma quarterback Rhett Bomar received $15,000 for his no-show job at a Norman car dealership last summer, the violation was clear. 

And two years ago, when Southern California wide receiver Mike Williams severed his ties with agent Mike Azzarelli and returned more than $100,000 from deals with Nike and a trading card company in hopes of reinstatement with the Trojans, the NCAA still denied his claim.  Similarly, the NCAA ruled against Colorado wide receiver and Winter Olympian Jeremy Bloom - arguing that he could not endorse ski-related products and remain eligible to play football.  Compare this to Notre Dame safety Tom Zbikowski.  The NCAA ruled that he could keep his $25,000 prize for his first round TKO against Robert Bell last June at Madison Square Garden - while remaining eligible to play for the Irish. 

There are signs that the NCAA may tackle this head on in coming years.  The NCAA released a report from a 50-member task force of member presidents that "surveyed the future" of Division I athletics - though no specific steps were recommended. 

At least the agent side of the equation is clearer.  Last year, President Bush signed the Sports Agent Responsibility and Trust Act, imposing tougher penalties on unethical sports agents who "lure student-athletes into contracts that comprise their amateur standing and damage the reputation of their school."  The law bars agents from recruiting student-athletes by giving "false or misleading information or providing anything of value to the athlete or his family" before entering into a contract. 

2. Have the New NCAA Graduation Standards Produced Meaningful Reform?

The NCAA has attempted to put teeth into measuring "meaningful progress toward a degree" by holding teams accountable through a standard called the APR - Academic Progress Rates.  Penalties include lost scholarships and post-season bans, and may have significant clout. 

Results look positive.  According to its study, 77 percent of all NCAA athletes who entered Division I schools from 1996 to 1999 earned degrees within six years - up from a 76 percent rate for the previous four-year class.  The graduation rates for Division I-A football was 66 percent, up from 65 percent.  The NCAA also released figures stating that Division I athletes graduated at a two percent higher rate than their non-athletic counterparts. 

Most recently, 55 of the 64 Division I-A football teams playing in bowl games this season graduated more than 50 percent of their student-athletes, according to the Institute for Diversity and Ethics at the University of Central Florida.  Ohio State graduated 55 percent of its players, and Florida graduated 80 percent of its athletes.  Navy and Boston College recorded the top graduation rates (98 percent and 96 percent, respectively) among teams playing in bowl games. 

NCAA President Myles Brand was not satisfied, however.  In what he called an "aspirational" goal, he is seeking an 80 percent graduation rate for Division I athletes.  And serious diversity issues linger - the study noted that while 62 percent of white Division I players graduated in the monitored period, only 49 percent of African-American football players earned their degrees. 

Some schools are also being singled out for additional scrutiny.  An internal audit at Auburn found some irregularities in grade changing for certain student-athletes.  Simultaneously, the NCAA announced that it would not accept credits for core academic courses from 31 high schools nationally - and added 22 additional schools to a "watch list" in the future. 

3. Will Title IX Continue to Provide Meaningful Progress in Women's Sports Without Unduly Affecting Men's Sports?

The United States Supreme Court last year rejected a motion to reinstate a lawsuit by the National Wrestling Coaches Association - claiming that Title IX "directly caused a reduction in men's sports."  The complaint argued that only 20 men's gymnastics programs are left in the country, and that wrestling, track, and other sports were also affected. 

Two months ago, James Madison University raised the equity issue by announcing that 10 varsity teams would be eliminated - seven men's and three women's.  Some 144 athletes will be affected as the teams are eliminated next July.  At JMU, 61 percent of the student body is female; dropping the respective teams will mean that 61 percent of the athletes will be female.  According to recent statistics, women still only represent 41 percent of all college athletes, and received only 21 percent of sports-specific operating funds five years ago.  As outside revenues increase, pressures intensify to allocate new funds fairly and equitably. 

In a related manner, the NCAA Committee on Women's Athletics has considered implementing a "women's hiring report card" to increase opportunity.  A study indicates that women coach 42 percent of the NCAA's women's teams, while "less than a fifth" of athletic directors overseeing women's programs are women. 

4. What Other Long-Term Issues Will the NCAA Face?

Brand also emphasized that it is important to "start integrating athletic departments into the university academic setting."  Vanderbilt University Chancellor Gordon Gee heeded the call, and eliminated the athletic department in favor of a university-run office of student athletics. 

While this will probably not be a widespread trend, given the substantial revenue that athletic departments produce, key governance issues remain. 

First, the case of which mascots are "hostile and abusive" will not go away.  A trial challenging the NCAA ban on the University of North Dakota's Fighting Sioux nickname has been postponed for a year, with the judge encouraging parties to settle.  At least 10 nicknames are still under review; schools such as William & Mary are beginning a phase-out of the Indian feathers protruding from their interlocking "W&M" logo (even though they will maintain the Tribe nickname).  Indiana University of Pennsylvania will be without a nickname for a while after its Board of Trustees voted to stop using "Indians."  (A new moniker will be selected in March.)  At Florida State University, the school unveiled a statue called "Seminole Family in Bronze" in front of the University Center Building on October 20.  While he statue pays homage to the Seminole wars of the 1830's and the "unconquered," the team labored to a relatively lackluster 6-6 record this year before their Emerald Bowl victory. 

Other major issues loom.  The NCAA will grapple with a process to encourage the hiring of minority coaches, at the urging of the Black Coaches Association of America (potentially patterned after the Rooney Rule of the NFL).  The NCAA is stepping up testing for steroid use.  A small percentage of college football and baseball players have admitted steroid use - 2.3 percent in both sports, compared with 1.2 percent of responding athletes across the board. 

And According to Turnkey Sports, the NCAA is perceived as holding the most power in college sports by a wide margin (36.3 percent, compared to 18.4 percent for boosters and, ironically, 13.1 percent for university presidents).  Obviously, the NCAA's perceived leadership will be tested by all of these issues in the years ahead.

***

College football is still rated in the top five most popular spectator polls according to the most recent Harris poll.  While the 41 million fans who attended college football games last year provide a solid foundation, look for continued marketing innovations, such as the All-American Football League, which debuts in April. 

The new league will try to capture a college-age fan base with eight initial teams composed of recently graduating college athletes who won't make the NFL or CFL. Franchises are valued at $3 million.

In another sign of college football's sweeping popularity, the Eddie Robinson Motherland Classic planned for December '07 will pit players from the historically black Mid-Eastern Athletic and Southwestern Athletic Conferences.  The Classic will play in Abuja Stadium...in Nigeria.

Two weeks ago, we posed the first two questions.  First, how does the BCS system work, and will there ever be a playoff?  Second, do the 32 bowls lead to over-saturation, or is there an appropriate business niche for all of them? 

Last week, we addressed four business questions that drive college football economics.  How will bowl economics impact Division I schools?  Which schools are the biggest economic winners/losers this season?  Can schools remain creative in generating additional revenue?  Will college head coaches continue to earn substantial economic bonanzas? 

Here are this week's core issues for the $5 billion NCAA business.

The Tostitos BCS National Championship game on January 8 in Glendale culminates the longest and biggest bowl season in history - 32 games over 16 days, with an economic impact of nearly $10 billion to the host regions. These bowls pay out about $210 million to NCAA schools, up from $101 million a decade ago (for 14 fewer bowl games).  Twenty-six of the games have a title sponsor, with each corporation paying upwards of $10 million annually for the BCS games, and as little as $400,000 for the others. 

The feasibility of a playoff system has been obsessively debated since Thanksgiving (with no prospect of such a playoff in Division I at least for five years - Division III recently completed a five-game playoff season after a 10-game regular schedule). 

The biggest winner in all of this is the state of Arizona.  The new $457.5 million stadium in Glendale serves as the catalyst for a two-year economic impact of nearly $1 billion - with the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, this year's BCS National Championship, and next year's Super Bowl XLII leading the way.  University of Phoenix wins as well - a 20-year, $154 million naming deal generates breakthrough publicity for one of the largest private universities in the world. 

The biggest competition may be off the field.  The 2002 signed agreements between the Arizona Cardinals and the public sector allows bowl game organizers to "cover up permanent signs" that might compete with Tostitos or other sponsors.  The NFL team, stadium owner, naming partner, and bowl committee are grappling with what signs to keep vs. temporarily replace.  There is precedent - in 2001, the National Hockey League (and its sponsor Coca-Cola) brought the All-Star Game to Denver's Pepsi Center - and avoided all reference to Pepsi in marketing campaigns.