The college bowl business is bigger than ever, prompting four final business questions that may guide the future: 

1. Will the NCAA Continue to Refer to Its Student-Athletes as "Amateurs," or Will It Finally Recognize the Big Business Nature of the Sport?

Last year, EA Sports made over $79 million from "NCAA Football 06," its popular video game.  Ironically, the University of Florida received $112,000 from that game - with players' uniform numbers, physical attributes, and other features dominating the video.  While player names are not used, they're easily recognizable.  Yet only the schools are compensated, not the players. 

Over the last five years, seven states have debated the specific issue of compensating student-athletes (with Nebraska leading the way).  Three years ago, former UCLA football player Ramogi Huma founded the Collegiate Athletes Coalition to "represent the student-athlete" - aligning with United States Steel Works of America.  Unfortunately for the cause, most other athletes have a short attention span on this issue, focusing on going pro or finding another job. 

The issue of when a student-athlete becomes a "professional" is also open for debate.  When former Oklahoma quarterback Rhett Bomar received $15,000 for his no-show job at a Norman car dealership last summer, the violation was clear. 

And two years ago, when Southern California wide receiver Mike Williams severed his ties with agent Mike Azzarelli and returned more than $100,000 from deals with Nike and a trading card company in hopes of reinstatement with the Trojans, the NCAA still denied his claim.  Similarly, the NCAA ruled against Colorado wide receiver and Winter Olympian Jeremy Bloom - arguing that he could not endorse ski-related products and remain eligible to play football.  Compare this to Notre Dame safety Tom Zbikowski.  The NCAA ruled that he could keep his $25,000 prize for his first round TKO against Robert Bell last June at Madison Square Garden - while remaining eligible to play for the Irish. 

There are signs that the NCAA may tackle this head on in coming years.  The NCAA released a report from a 50-member task force of member presidents that "surveyed the future" of Division I athletics - though no specific steps were recommended. 

At least the agent side of the equation is clearer.  Last year, President Bush signed the Sports Agent Responsibility and Trust Act, imposing tougher penalties on unethical sports agents who "lure student-athletes into contracts that comprise their amateur standing and damage the reputation of their school."  The law bars agents from recruiting student-athletes by giving "false or misleading information or providing anything of value to the athlete or his family" before entering into a contract. 

2. Have the New NCAA Graduation Standards Produced Meaningful Reform?

The NCAA has attempted to put teeth into measuring "meaningful progress toward a degree" by holding teams accountable through a standard called the APR - Academic Progress Rates.  Penalties include lost scholarships and post-season bans, and may have significant clout. 

Results look positive.  According to its study, 77 percent of all NCAA athletes who entered Division I schools from 1996 to 1999 earned degrees within six years - up from a 76 percent rate for the previous four-year class.  The graduation rates for Division I-A football was 66 percent, up from 65 percent.  The NCAA also released figures stating that Division I athletes graduated at a two percent higher rate than their non-athletic counterparts. 

Most recently, 55 of the 64 Division I-A football teams playing in bowl games this season graduated more than 50 percent of their student-athletes, according to the Institute for Diversity and Ethics at the University of Central Florida.  Ohio State graduated 55 percent of its players, and Florida graduated 80 percent of its athletes.  Navy and Boston College recorded the top graduation rates (98 percent and 96 percent, respectively) among teams playing in bowl games. 

NCAA President Myles Brand was not satisfied, however.  In what he called an "aspirational" goal, he is seeking an 80 percent graduation rate for Division I athletes.  And serious diversity issues linger - the study noted that while 62 percent of white Division I players graduated in the monitored period, only 49 percent of African-American football players earned their degrees. 

Some schools are also being singled out for additional scrutiny.  An internal audit at Auburn found some irregularities in grade changing for certain student-athletes.  Simultaneously, the NCAA announced that it would not accept credits for core academic courses from 31 high schools nationally - and added 22 additional schools to a "watch list" in the future. 

3. Will Title IX Continue to Provide Meaningful Progress in Women's Sports Without Unduly Affecting Men's Sports?

The United States Supreme Court last year rejected a motion to reinstate a lawsuit by the National Wrestling Coaches Association - claiming that Title IX "directly caused a reduction in men's sports."  The complaint argued that only 20 men's gymnastics programs are left in the country, and that wrestling, track, and other sports were also affected. 

Two months ago, James Madison University raised the equity issue by announcing that 10 varsity teams would be eliminated - seven men's and three women's.  Some 144 athletes will be affected as the teams are eliminated next July.  At JMU, 61 percent of the student body is female; dropping the respective teams will mean that 61 percent of the athletes will be female.  According to recent statistics, women still only represent 41 percent of all college athletes, and received only 21 percent of sports-specific operating funds five years ago.  As outside revenues increase, pressures intensify to allocate new funds fairly and equitably. 

In a related manner, the NCAA Committee on Women's Athletics has considered implementing a "women's hiring report card" to increase opportunity.  A study indicates that women coach 42 percent of the NCAA's women's teams, while "less than a fifth" of athletic directors overseeing women's programs are women. 

4. What Other Long-Term Issues Will the NCAA Face?

Brand also emphasized that it is important to "start integrating athletic departments into the university academic setting."  Vanderbilt University Chancellor Gordon Gee heeded the call, and eliminated the athletic department in favor of a university-run office of student athletics. 

While this will probably not be a widespread trend, given the substantial revenue that athletic departments produce, key governance issues remain. 

First, the case of which mascots are "hostile and abusive" will not go away.  A trial challenging the NCAA ban on the University of North Dakota's Fighting Sioux nickname has been postponed for a year, with the judge encouraging parties to settle.  At least 10 nicknames are still under review; schools such as William & Mary are beginning a phase-out of the Indian feathers protruding from their interlocking "W&M" logo (even though they will maintain the Tribe nickname).  Indiana University of Pennsylvania will be without a nickname for a while after its Board of Trustees voted to stop using "Indians."  (A new moniker will be selected in March.)  At Florida State University, the school unveiled a statue called "Seminole Family in Bronze" in front of the University Center Building on October 20.  While he statue pays homage to the Seminole wars of the 1830's and the "unconquered," the team labored to a relatively lackluster 6-6 record this year before their Emerald Bowl victory. 

Other major issues loom.  The NCAA will grapple with a process to encourage the hiring of minority coaches, at the urging of the Black Coaches Association of America (potentially patterned after the Rooney Rule of the NFL).  The NCAA is stepping up testing for steroid use.  A small percentage of college football and baseball players have admitted steroid use - 2.3 percent in both sports, compared with 1.2 percent of responding athletes across the board. 

And According to Turnkey Sports, the NCAA is perceived as holding the most power in college sports by a wide margin (36.3 percent, compared to 18.4 percent for boosters and, ironically, 13.1 percent for university presidents).  Obviously, the NCAA's perceived leadership will be tested by all of these issues in the years ahead.

***

College football is still rated in the top five most popular spectator polls according to the most recent Harris poll.  While the 41 million fans who attended college football games last year provide a solid foundation, look for continued marketing innovations, such as the All-American Football League, which debuts in April. 

The new league will try to capture a college-age fan base with eight initial teams composed of recently graduating college athletes who won't make the NFL or CFL. Franchises are valued at $3 million.

In another sign of college football's sweeping popularity, the Eddie Robinson Motherland Classic planned for December '07 will pit players from the historically black Mid-Eastern Athletic and Southwestern Athletic Conferences.  The Classic will play in Abuja Stadium...in Nigeria.