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    Hockey's New Cold War.

    Friday, July 18, 2008, 08:52 AM [General]

    The fallout from Nashville Predators forward Alexander Radulov's decision to sign a three-year, $13 million contract with Ufa Salavat of Russia's new Kontinental Hockey League has sparked a growing debate amongst bloggers (including myself) over the seriousness of the threat the KHL poses to the NHL.

    Some like me aren't taking the KHL too seriously but others are suggesting this could represent a potentially serious talent drain for the NHL, particularly of Russian talent, which has been on the decline in recent years in the NHL.

    I've written previously about this and engaged in a discussion with the Globe and Mail's James Mirtle on his blog on this topic but allow me to further clarify my position.

    If this "no-poaching" agreement brokered by the IIHF between the NHL and KHL stays in effect (which appears doubtful right now) then no one in the NHL will be following Radulov's lead, unless it's as free agents where they can sign wherever they please.

    For NHLPA members as well as North American minor leaguers the KHL works to their benefit, giving them another option to earn big league dollars as well as a strong leverage tool in contract talks with their respective NHL teams.

    Thus far Radulov is the only truly significant Russian player to sign with a KHL team. As James Mirtle recently noted, Radulov's accomplishments at only 21 years of age are noteworthy, suggesting he's a burgeoning superstar.

    Compare him however to what Russian NHL stars like Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin and Ilya Kovalchuk accomplished at 21. Losing one of those players would be a serious blow for the NHL. Losing a dozen players of Radulov's caliber per year would represent a significant talent drain. Losing only one player like Radulov per year is not.

    Considering the bigger fish the KHL tried and failed to land this summer (Malkin being the biggest), if the main concern for the NHL is losing the occasional promising player to the KHL then it is a minor irritant.

    Even if Radulov's contract with Ufa is allowed to stand it doesn't mean he's gone forever, as he suggested in a recent interview he could return to the NHL, citing the example of countryman Alexander Semin of the Washington Capitals.

    It's not however a minor irritant to the Nashville Predators, as replacing his offensive production won't be easy for this goal-starved team, and the timing - coming in mid-July - couldn't be worse, taking away the opportunity for the Preds to attempt to sign a suitable replacement via the UFA market.

    Radulov recently claimed he tried to forewarn the Predators management of offers from the KHL in hopes of signing a contract extension.

    If so, GM David Poile either thought Radulov was bluffing, or most likely believed the  "anti-poaching" verbal agreement between the NHL and KHL would prevent a KHL team from signing Radulov.

    Prior to the NHL's transfer agreement dispute with Russia the number of Russian prospects selected by NHL teams was already declining.

    Granted, the lack of a transfer agreement, the inability under the current CBA for NHL teams to hold the rights of drafted European players indefinitely and the uncertainty of those players being allowed to join the NHL teams that drafted them were significant factors but so too has been the decline in player development in Russia.

    Their hockey program has been in serious decline since the early 1990s. Stars like Ovechkin and Malkin were exceptions to the rule, as Russian hockey in recent years generally produced one-dimensional forwards, few top-caliber defensemen and weak goaltending.

    That was clearly highlighted last summer when Canada's juniors humiliated Russia's best juniors  going unbeaten in an 8 game series "Super Series" that was anything but for the Russians.

    Yes, Russia did win the World Championships this year against an NHL stocked Canadian team in a thrilling gold-medal overtime game, but it was the first time in 13 years they'd won that championship, a considerable drought for a country once considered the world's preeminent hockey power.

    The KHL maintains it wants to prevent NHL teams from poaching their best young talent, that it wants that talent to develop their game in their home country, and perhaps this will give Russian hockey the best opportunity to achieve this. Still, it seems odd that they're resorting more to spending their dollars on predominantly marginal NHL talent, most of whom aren't even Russian.

    What if those big bucks aren't enough to sway talented young Russians from playing in the NHL?

    In recent years some Russian teams resorted to pressuring players and their families into signing contracts (Evgeni Malkin), took away their passports to prevent them leaving Russia voluntarily (Malkin again), suggesting players needed to complete "mandatory military service" (Nikolai Zherdev and Alexander Semin), or in the case of Columbus prospect Nikita Filatov claiming only the indemnity portion of his contract with CSKA Moscow has expired but the rest of the contract was still valid.

    It remains to be seen if big money contracts will bring an end to those questionable tactics.

    Tossing big money at young Russian players could also backfire on the KHL, as those youngsters could accept those expensive KHL contracts ( knowing the NHL has a strict entry level cap), bank their KHL millions and then say Dosvidaniya once their KHL contract is up to head to the NHL's bigger stage.

    Don't overlook the pull that Russian NHL stars like Ovechkin, Malkin and Kovalchuk have on young Russian hockey players, who dream of following in their footsteps and garnering full international fame.

    In my discussion with James Mirtle  one of his readers suggested the real issue here isn't the KHL taking away top line talent from the NHL but rather signing away marginal talent which could deplete the on-ice talent pool resulting in a poor quality product for the NHL.

    Somehow I doubt the NHL will suffer because the Chris Simons, Kyle Wanvigs, and Niko Kapanens of the hockey world head overseas.The North American and European talents pools are sufficiently deep to cover off those losses.

    Besides, Europe has been a favorable destination for career minor leaguers and marginal NHLers for quite some time, long before the KHL came into being. Usually those players signed with German, Swiss and Swedish teams, partially for language reasons but also because they generally paid well. Few, particularly North American players, made Russia a destination of choice.

    We're hearing more about marginal talent signing with the KHL  this year because  that league (essentially a super-sized version of the old Russian Super League) just came into existence and they're offering more money than other European teams. If anything, the KHL could be more of a threat to the talent pools in other European leagues than to the NHL's.

    Just because players sign with the KHL doesn't mean they're never coming back. In previous years many tended to sign one or two year contracts, often with "out clauses" should an NHL team come calling, and it wasn't  unusual for those players to return to the NHL.

    Even if  new KHL contracts  lack  those  "out clauses"  those players could still return to the NHL once their contracts have expired.

    The NHL isn't blameless for the current standoff with the KHL. It bears the brunt of the blame for not fairly compensating European teams under their previous transfer agreement. KHL team owners have every right to be angry but their oil money alone will be enough to win a war of attrition with the NHL.

    It cannot compete with the NHL in terms of venues, advertising, ticket sales, concessions, broadcasting and other revenue streams. Thus far it appears the only thing backing those big contracts is the ownerships' oil money.

    Most might be willing to write off their teams losses for a while but that won't go on forever. At some point the KHL will have to stand on its own instead of requiring its wealthiest teams to bail it out. This league has a long way to go to prove itself a viable, competitive alternative to the NHL instead of a plaything for Russian oil barons.

    At some point, the NHL and KHL will have reach detente and work on a mutually beneficial agreement. Nothing can really be gained for either side, regardless of the perceived threat of one or the apparent advantage of the other, in allow the current situation to fester and deteriorate.

    It was believed this "anti-poaching" deal was a start but the Radulov situation could kill that agreement and put NHL-KHL negotiations further into the deep freeze.

    This new Cold War of the hockey world doesn't show any signs of thawing soon.

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