FIFA this morning released the November FIFA Rankings which will determine the seeding for the World Cup qualifiers. As expected, Serbia dropped in the standings to 30th in the World. The drop stemmed from favorable results from other European nations and Serbia draw to Poland at home and the postponment of the match against Kazakhstan. Serbia's drop in the overall standings also dropped them from 18th in Europe to 21st. What that also meant is that Serbia moved from being in the 2nd Pot for Qualifying to the 3rd Pot.

What does that mean? At this moment, nothing outside of the fact that Serbia will avoid having to play against countries like Norway, Denmark and the Ukraine. Unfortunately, it does mean having to play against a top seeded team like Italy, Spain or Germany and 2nd pot nations like Turkey, Sweden or Romania (England is also there, but are they really that strong?!).

Here is the list of what should be the pots for the Qualifying Draw that occurs on Sunday (please note, this is not official):

1 Italy
2 Spain
3 Germany
4 Czech Republic
5 France
6 Portugal
7 Netherlands
8 Croatia
9 Greece

From the First Pot of 9, you have the best of the best. Every team except for Portugal and Croatia have either won a World Cup or a European Championship; while both Portugal and Croatia have been World Cup Semi-finalists (both have also been European finalists (Croatia when part of Yugoslavia)). To be honest, every team in this pot you want to avoid. All are potential killers and any match Serbia would play against these teams would be difficult to even manage a draw. Italy would be my pick to avoid as they are the defending champions. I think the team you want from this pot would be Greece. While a Serbia v Croatia series would be incredible, I think Serbia stands a better chance against the Greeks than the Croats.

10 England 
11 Romania  
12 Scotland
13 Turkey
14 Bulgaria
15 Russia
16 Poland
17 Sweden
18 Israel

In the 2nd pot, Serbia should fair well against. Yes, you have 5 teams that have qualified for Euro 2008, there are still teams that Serbia could steal a home win against and force a draw on the road. I think of the 9 teams, Israel would be the easiest to face off against, although the match in Tel Aviv would be difficult, but easier than having to travel to Stockholm, Sofia or Bucharest. Chances are that Serbia will get drawn with an Eastern European neighbour (Romania, Turkey, Bulgaria, Russia or Poland) and those will be tough matches. I would want to avoid Romania in this group. They have talent; their league has developed a lot in the past few years, thanks to Steaua past two Champions League participations (even though weak this season) and their club's strong runs in the past years in the UEFA Cup. Also, Yugoslavia (all forms) has played against Romania more than any nation and while it would be nice to bring back fond memories of the past, I'd rather avoid them and stick to playing friendlies.

19 Norway
20 Ukraine
21 Serbia 
22 Denmark
23 Northern Ireland
24 Republic of Ireland
25 Finland
26 Switzerland
27 Belgium

The 3rd pot is not a weak pot at all. Most, if not all of the nations here could do some real damage and will probably be a factor in each group, especially in deciding which nation automatically qualifies. Not looking at Serbia, I think the nation anyone would love to avoid has to be Northern Ireland. It may come to a surprise, but they nearly qualified in the Spain/Sweden Euro Group and outside of a fluke loss here and there, almost surprised everyone. Belgium is the weakest of this bunch and the fact that they are in the 3rd pot surprises me. The football program of Belgium has fallen off the map. They were a decent team in the 80s and 90s but they have disappeared since co-hosting Euro 2000 and any team would love to play against them.

28 Slovakia
29 Bosnia-Herzegovina
30 Hungary
31 Moldova
32 Wales
33 FYR Macedonia
34 Belarus
35 Lithuania
36 Cyprus

The quality sides really start to stop once you get into the 4th pot. There are a couple of decent sides, but none that will really stand out and be a major threat. If you're looking for a nation to avoid, it would have to be Lithuania or Belarus. Not so much for their abilities, but for the fact that having to travel to those parts of Eastern Europe will not be enjoyable. Wales and Slovakia would be tough matches as well, but if you get to play them in the Spring or Early fall on the road and you stand a good shot of getting the 3 points you need, it's not that easy in Eastern Europe. FYR Macedonia would be Serbia's ideal opposition here. Serbia/Yugoslavia has done well against it's Former Yugoslav Republic (hence the FYR) so a short trip down the highway from Belgrade to Skopje would be ideal. Also, unlike traveling to Bosnia, there wouldn't be any crowd problems from the Macedonians in either Skopje or Belgrade and reversely, the Serbian fans would be well behaved. Another bonus for me is that I have family in Macedonia, so it would create a bit of rivalry between my cousins.

37 Georgia
38 Albania
39 Slovenia
40 Latvia
41 Iceland
42 Armenia
43 Austria
44 Kazakhstan
45 Azerbaijan

In my opinion, this pot of teams is a mixed bag of decent and horrible. Iceland, Latvia and maybe Slovenia or Austria could pose problems, while Armenia and Georgia are questionable, the rest are countries do not stand any chance. I would love for Serbia to avoid playing Iceland as any trip to the Western Island will be long and difficult, especially if the weather is not suitable. Their side isn't that great, but they tend to play with a lot of passion and if you get them during when temperatures are not suitable, you are going to drop points. A Serbia v Albania match would get the attention of the World. Serbia still control Kosovo (as they should) but that part of Serbia is very much an Albanian populus, and this series of matches would be extremely violent. Also, Albania are a really bad side, the worst of the bunch. Azerbaijan might be ranked lower, but no one likes to travel to Asia to play on the horrible pitches in that part of the world. The same goes for Kazakhstan, but we already know that Serbia managed to lose to them before, so who's to say it wouldn't happen again.

46 Liechtenstein
47 Estonia
48 Malta
49 Luxembourg
50 Montenegro
51 Andorra
52 Faroe Islands
53 San Marino

I didn't bother to give a green to a team in this group since none of the nations here would be really difficult. Serbia should be able to comfortably win both matches against any of these sides. I would love to play San Marino, Faroe Islands or Andorra as any match between these three would result in high scoring affairs. The two teams here that could potentially pose a problem would be Estonia and Montenegro. Estonia because of weather, location and environment (which are always a factor against any side). Montenegro is taking part in it's first ever qualification and this is their time to shine. They will want to emerge from the shadows and I strongly see that this will be the only time they will be in the bottom pot of any qualifying group. Serbia should still be able to beat Montenegro, but the determination that the Montegrians will have would trump anything. Even if the match in the captial of Podgorica ended in a draw, it would be more like a win for the tiny Adriatic nation.

Considering that only the group winners are ensured a place in South Africa, there will be no easy group. All 18 Pot 1 and Pot 2 teams have the potential of reaching the World Cup so that will make it extremely difficult road for Serbia. At this moment, I would say the best Serbia could do in any group set up is to fight for 2nd and a place in the Qualifcation playoff. If they get a favorable draw and are partnered with Greece and/or Israel, then their chances could be a lot better. But any combination of the other 16 nations and it will be time for Serbia to start preping for Euro 2012.

As you may have notice, I also had some nations in Italics. All these nations are former Yugoslav republics and I think any fan from that Part of the World (Former Yugoslavia) would love it if all of these teams got drawn together. While We'd either get Bosnia or Macedonia, the potential for a group of  Croatia, Bulgaria/Romania, Serbia, FYR Macedonia, Slovenia and Montenegro would be so thrilling. These would be highly competitve matches and the cost of travel would be minimal. The chance of this occuring is slim, it would still be a lot of fun.

On Sunday, I will write a report on Serbia's draw and what I would expect against each side. If the actual group schedule of matches is made, I attempt to predict how the group ends.

The national football teams of Serbia and Croatia emerged as the strongest among the former Yugoslav republics after the break-up of the country in the early 1990s. Today, more than a decade and a half later, expectations continue to be high for both sides on the European and world stages. However, the Croatian national team has enjoyed much more success than its eastern neighbor, and many Serbian soccer fans wonder why. The question seems timely and fitting for Serbia, which possesses a player pool that - at least on paper - should be equal to or better than Croatia. Yet the Serbs failed to qualify for Euro 2008 from a group containing Poland and out-of-form Portugal, while the Croats beat England twice and finished above tricky Russia and Israel en route to the second-best qualifying record on the continent.

It must be noted that for all their success, Croatia have failed to make the second round of a major tournament since the "golden generation" of Suker, Boban & Co. captured third place at the 1998 World Cup in France. The Croats have performed admirably at major competitions against the likes of Italy, France and Brazil, yet they have failed to take maximum points against "weaker" sides like Ecuador and Australia, and have thus not emerged from the group stages since their original Cinderella run. This story played out at the 2002 and 2006 World Cups, as well as Euro 2004.

Albeit that this handicap excludes Croatia from the world's elite national teams (though many Croatian fans believe the contrary), the Croatian side has experienced far more success in the new century than its Serbian counterpart. After all, Euro 2008 marks the third occasion in the last four major tournaments that Croatia will be participating and Serbia will not. The Croats have qualified for six of the seven major competitions since competing as an independent state, while Serbia (previously also competing as part of FR Yugoslavia or Serbia-Montenegro) qualified for only three of six competitions. The Croats have beaten opponents such as Italy, Sweden and England, while the Serbs have never beaten a top-tier opponent in a major game.  

Yet the comparison is not all negative for Serbia. In the last three European U-21 Championships, Serbia has played in two finals and one semi-final. In fact, the Serbia and Montenegro U-21 squad defeated Croatia in a two-leg playoff to qualify for the 2006 European championship tournament. Further, Serbia's domestic league - though severely weakened - continues to pull a higher European ranking (#20) than Croatia (#26). The country still produces the occasional star player, such as Manchester United's Nemanja Vidic and Valencia's Nikola Zigic. It has multiple players on teams that compete in the UEFA Champions League and the latter stages of the UEFA Cup, and is no weaker than Croatia when it comes to the number of players competing in the "Big Five" European domestic leagues. In sum, an analysis "below the surface" reveals no major difference between the two countries. If anything, Serbia and Croatia should be equal. So why aren't they?

The first reason is history. The FR Yugoslavia and Serbia-Montenegro national teams failed to implement generation changes quickly enough to stay competitive, a price Serbia is still paying for today. While players such as Predrag Mijatovic and Sinisa Mihajlovic should have retired from the national team after Euro 2000, they continued to be called up for the 2002 World Cup qualifiers. After FR Yugoslavia's chances collapsed in the final game with a 1-1 draw against Slovenia, new Serbia-Montenegro coach Dejan Savicevic continued to base the squad around players who had passed their prime. This team failed to qualify for Euro 2004 thanks to an embarrassing defeat to Azerbaijan. The arrival of Ilija Petkovic for the 2006 World Cup campaign meant that players marginalized by Savicevic would finally get their chance, and the team qualified for the tournament in Germany. Yet Petkovic failed to realize that this generation was also becoming older, and that he should have combined its best players with the group of talented youngsters coming through the U-21 program. Petkovic preferred to keep his senior players happy and free of stressful internal competition, and the result was a team with a horrendous lack of depth that crashed out of the World Cup with three consecutive losses. Finally, with the arrival of Javier Clemente, a team made up mostly of younger players was constructed. Many of these players should have at least been reserves in Germany to soak in valuable experience, but their exclusion from the squad meant that they would be thrown into the fire for the first time in the Euro 2008 qualifiers. In this sense, Clemente cannot be blamed for the fact that the talent pool available to him was vastly inexperienced. Serbia was one generation behind in 2002 and 2004, and half a generation behind in 2006. Clemente had to set these errors straight, and the first outing was expectedly a bumpy one.

The second reason is something I like to call "football identity". The elite national teams of the world all have a characteristic style of play: Brazil and Argentina are known for their creativity, Germany for its discipline, and Italy for its defence. The former Yugoslavia also had a football identity: it was known as the "Brazil of Europe", a courageous attacking side based on skilled touch passing, majestic runs down the wing, and brilliant finishing. Yet since the 2002 World Cup qualifying cycle, the FR Yugoslavia and its successor teams have lost this identity and replaced it with a boring defensive style based on counter-attacks and long balls to the strikers. Serbia cannot emulate Italy's defence or Germany's discipline; instead it must "find itself". From this perspective, Clemente can be blamed for the fact that he does not fully understand the true Serbian football mentality. But the real fault lies with those who have failed to explain it to him, or to find a different coach who does understand. For their part, Croatia have also had problems with generation changes. But the Croatian success lies in their concrete style of play; the Croats are ready and willing to attack world-class teams, while the Serbs prefer to sit back and play for the draw by hoping to steal a goal on the counter-attack. Since there is no other identifiable cause for the disparity between the two teams, this can be the only logical conclusion. The real question is whether or not anyone at the Serbian FA will recognize the problem, and act on it.

The match in Belgrade is over and Portugal have advanced after both matches in Belgrade and Porto end with no victors. I expect Ross will write a post-match report, I am stuck at work for the next 2 hours and am trying to follow the England v Croatia match. Hopefully we will both be able to re-watch highlights of the Serbia v Poland match and discuss what went wrong early on and our comments on the rest of the matches today.

Nikola Zigic cuts the lead in half and it's now 1:2. The goal does put some life back into the Serbian side, but it could be more about Poland cruising to the finish than anything else.

And only minutes after, Danko Lazovic has tied the game up and with the score at 2:2, Serbia has come to life and can now look to take the lead, but will need to keep this momentum going. The match in Portugal is still at 0:0 with the Portugese controlling every aspect of the match.